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Rotavirus infection remains an important cause of morbidity and mortality in children. The introduction of vaccination programs in more than 100 countries has contributed to a decrease in hospitalizations and mortality. This study investigates the epidemiological impact of the rotavirus vaccine ROTAVAC® in the Palestinian Territories, the first country to switch from ROTARIX® to this new vaccine.Clinical surveillance data was collected fromchildren younger than 5attendingoutpatient clinics throughout Gaza withdiarrhea between 2015 and 2020. The incidence of all-cause diarrhea was assessed using an interrupted time-series approach. Rotavirus prevalence was determined at the Caritas Baby Hospital in the West Bank usingELISA on stool specimen of children younger than 5with diarrhea. Genotyping was performed on 325 randomly selected rotavirus-positive samples from January 2015 through December 2020 using multiplex PCR analysis.Average monthly diarrhea casesdropped by 16.7% annually fromintroduction of rotavirus vaccination in May 2016 to the beginning of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in March 2020 for a total of 53%. Case count declines were maintained afterthe switchto ROTAVAC® in October 2018. Rotavirus positivity in stool samples declined by 67.1% over the same period without change followingthe switch to ROTAVAC®. The distribution of predominant genotypes in rotavirus-positive stool samples changed from a pre-vaccination G1P [8] to G9P[8] and G12P[8] during the ROTARIX® period and G2P[4] after the introduction of ROTAVAC®.ROTAVAC® has shown epidemiological impact on par with ROTARIX® after its introduction to the national immunization schedule in the Palestinian Territories. A molecular genotype shift from a pre-vaccination predominance of G1P[8] to a current predominance of G2P[4] requires more long-term surveillance.

Sabin strains used in oral poliovirus vaccines (OPV) can revert to virulence and, in rare instances, cause disease or generate vaccine-derived strains leading to outbreaks in areas of low immunisation coverage. A novel OPV2 (nOPV2) was designed to stabilise the viral genome against reversion and reduce recombination events that might lead to virulent strains. In this study, we evaluated the genetic and phenotypic stability of shed poliovirus following administration of one dose of monovalent OPV2 (mOPV2) or nOPV2 to infants aged 18-22 weeks.In two similarly designed clinical trials (NCT02521974 and NCT03554798) conducted in Panama, infants aged 18-22-weeks, after immunisation with three doses of bivalent OPV (types 1 and 3) and one dose of inactivated poliovirus vaccine, were administered one or two doses of mOPV2 or nOPV2. In this analysis of two clinical trials, faecally shed polioviruses following one dose of mOPV2 or nOPV2 were isolated from stools meeting predetermined criteria related to sample timing and viral presence and quantity and assessed for nucleotide polymorphisms using next-generation sequencing. A transgenic mouse neurovirulence test was adapted to assess the effect of the possible phenotypic reversion of shed mOPV2 and nOPV2 with a logistic regression model.Of the 91 eligible samples, 86 were able to be sequenced, with 72 evaluated in the transgenic mouse assay. Sabin-2 poliovirus reverts rapidly at nucleotide 481, the primary attenuation site in domain V of the 5' untranslated region of the genome. There was no evidence of neurovirulence-increasing polymorphisms in domain V of shed nOPV2. Reversion of shed Sabin-2 virus corresponded with unadjusted paralysis rates of 47·6% at the 4 logThe data indicate increased genetic stability of domain V of nOPV2 relative to mOPV2, with significantly lower neurovirulence of shed nOPV2 virus compared with shed mOPV2. While this vaccine is currently being deployed under an emergency use listing, the data on the genetic stability of nOPV2 will support further regulatory and policy decision-making regarding use of nOPV2 in outbreak responses.BillMelinda Gates Foundation.

The emergence and international spread of neurovirulent circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses (cVDPVs) across multiple countries in Africa and Asia in recent years pose a major challenge to the goal of eradicating all forms of polioviruses. Approximately 90% of all cVDPV outbreaks are caused by the type 2 strain of the Sabin vaccine, an oral live, attenuated vaccine; cVDPV outbreaks typically occur in areas of persistently low immunization coverage (1). A novel type 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (nOPV2), produced by genetic modification of the type 2 Sabin vaccine virus genome (2), was developed and evaluated through phase I and phase II clinical trials during 2017-2019. nOPV2 was demonstrated to be safe and well-tolerated, have noninferior immunogenicity, and have superior genetic stability compared with Sabin monovalent type 2 (as measured by preservation of the primary attenuation site [domain V in the 5' noncoding region] and significantly lower neurovirulence of fecally shed vaccine virus in transgenic mice) (3-5). These findings indicate that nOPV2 could be an important tool in reducing the risk for generating vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) and the risk for vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis cases. Based on the favorable preclinical and clinical data, and the public health emergency of international concern generated by ongoing endemic wild poliovirus transmission and cVDPV type 2 outbreaks, the World Health Organization authorized nOPV2 for use under the Emergency Use Listing (EUL) pathway in November 2020, allowing for its first use for outbreak response in March 2021 (6). As required by the EUL process, among other EUL obligations, an extensive plan was developed and deployed for obtaining and monitoring nOPV2 isolates detected during acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance, environmental surveillance, adverse events after immunization surveillance, and targeted surveillance for adverse events of special interest (i.e., prespecified events that have the potential to be causally associated with the vaccine product), during outbreak response, as well as through planned field studies. Under this monitoring framework, data generated from whole-genome sequencing of nOPV2 isolates, alongside other virologic data for isolates from AFP and environmental surveillance systems, are reviewed by the genetic characterization subgroup of an nOPV working group of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative. Global nOPV2 genomic surveillance during March-October 2021 confirmed genetic stability of the primary attenuating site. Sequence data generated through this unprecedented global effort confirm the genetic stability of nOPV2 relative to Sabin 2 and suggest that nOPV2 will be an important tool in the eradication of poliomyelitis. nOPV2 surveillance should continue for the duration of the EUL.

Background: Inactivated trivalent poliovirus vaccine (IPV) induces humoral immunity, which protects against paralytic poliomyelitis but does not induce sufficient mucosal immunity to block intestinal infection. We assessed the intestinal immunity in healthy adults in Belgium conferred by a co-formulation of IPV with the mucosal adjuvant double mutant Labile Toxin (dmLT) derived from Escherichia coli.Methods: Healthy fully IPV-vaccinated 18-45-year-olds were randomly allocated to three groups: on Day 1 two groups received one full dose of IPV (n = 30) or IPV + dmLT (n = 30) in a blinded manner, and the third received an open-label dose of bivalent live oral polio vaccine (bOPV types 1 and 3, n = 20). All groups received a challenge dose of bOPV on Day 29. Participants reported solicited and unsolicited adverse events (AE) using study diaries. Mucosal immune responses were measured by fecal neutralization and IgA on Days 29 and 43, with fecal shedding of challenge viruses measured for 28 days. Humoral responses were measured by serum neutralizing antibody (NAb).Results: Solicited and unsolicited AEs were mainly mild-to-moderate and transient in all groups, with no meaningful differences in rates between groups. Fecal shedding of challenge viruses in both IPV groups exceeded that of the bOPV group but was not different between IPV and IPV + dmLT groups. High serum NAb responses were observed in both IPV groups, alongside modest levels of fecal neutralization and IgA. Conclusions: Addition of dmLT to IPV administered intramuscularly neither affected humoral nor intestinal immunity nor decreased fecal virus shedding following bOPV challenge. The tolerability of the dose of dmLT used in this study may allow higher doses to be investigated for impact on mucosal immunity.Registered on ClinicalTrials.gov - NCT04232943.(c) 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

Sabin-strain oral polio vaccines (OPV) can, in rare instances, cause disease in recipients and susceptible contacts or evolve to become circulating vaccine-derived strains with the potential to cause outbreaks. Two novel type 2 OPV (nOPV2) candidates were designed to stabilize the genome against the rapid reversion that is observed following vaccination with Sabin OPV type 2 (mOPV2). Next-generation sequencing and a modified transgenic mouse neurovirulence test were applied to shed nOPV2 viruses from phase 1 and 2 studies and shed mOPV2 from a phase 4 study. The shed mOPV2 rapidly reverted in the primary attenuation site (domain V) and increased in virulence. In contrast, the shed nOPV2 viruses showed no evidence of reversion in domain V and limited or no increase in neurovirulence in mice. Based on these results and prior published data on safety, immunogenicity, and shedding, the nOPV2 viruses are promising alternatives to mOPV2 for outbreak responses.

BACKGROUND NlmCategory: BACKGROUND content: In 2016, the Zambian National Malaria Elimination Centre started programmatic mass drug administration (pMDA) campaigns with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine as a malaria elimination tool in Southern Province. Two rounds were administered, two months apart (coverage 70% and 57% respectively). We evaluated the impact of one year of pMDA on malaria incidence using routine data. - Label: METHODS NlmCategory: METHODS content: We conducted an interrupted time series with comparison group analysis on monthly incidence data collected at the health facility catchment area (HFCA) level, with a negative binomial model using generalized estimating equations. pMDA was conducted in HFCAs with greater than 50 cases/1,000 people/year. Ten HFCAs with incidence rates marginally above this threshold (pMDA group) were compared to 20 HFCAs marginally below (comparison group). - Label: RESULTS NlmCategory: RESULTS content: "The pMDA HFCAs saw a 46% greater decrease in incidence at the time of intervention than the comparison areas (incidence rate ratio: 0.536 [0.337-0.852]); however, incidence increased toward the end of the season. No HFCAs saw a transmission interruption." - Label: CONCLUSION NlmCategory: CONCLUSIONS content: pMDA, implemented during one year with imperfect coverage in low transmission areas with sub-optimal vector control coverage, significantly reduced incidence. However, elimination will require additional tools. Routine data are important resources for programmatic impact evaluations and should be considered for future analyses.

Highlights • Nigeria’s national survey estimates of DPT3 and MCV1 coverage fluctuate greatly in recent years. • Much of the variation results from differences in surveys weights, not coverage. • Both USAID DHS and UNICEF MICS allow weights to vary from round-to-round. • Nigeria’s National Nutrition & Health Survey weights do not vary much due to post-stratification. • To compare results from surveys proximate in time, use similar strata weights for clarity., National vaccination coverage estimates from household surveys are widely used in monitoring and planning of immunization programs. In Nigeria, survey-reported national coverage estimates have shown large fluctuations in the past few years. In this paper, we examine the impact of state-level survey weighting on Nigeria’s national vaccination coverage estimation. In particular, we focus three vaccination-related outcomes among children aged 12–23 months: the coverage of the third dose of diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus vaccine (DPT3); the coverage of the first dose of measles-containing vaccine (MCV1); and the availability rate of home-based vaccination record (HBR). We compare the sample selection and weight assignment of three major survey programs in Nigeria, and show that considerable portions of the changes in survey-reported national coverage estimates can be explained by shifts in state-level weights. Our analysis demonstrates the importance of state weighting method in estimating aggregated national coverage figures and provides important context for interpreting changes in coverage estimates between surveys in the future.

Production of affordable coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in low- and middle-income countries is needed. NDV-HXP-S is an inactivated egg-based Newcastle disease virus (NDV) vaccine expressing the spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Wuhan-Hu-1. The spike protein was stabilized and incorporated into NDV virions by removing the polybasic furin cleavage site, introducing the transmembrane domain and cytoplasmic tail of the fusion protein of NDV, and introducing six prolines for stabilization in the prefusion state. Vaccine production and clinical development was initiated in Vietnam, Thailand, and Brazil. Here the interim results from the first stage of the randomized, dose-escalation, observer-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2 trial conducted at the Hanoi Medical University (Vietnam) are presented. Healthy adults aged 18-59 years, non-pregnant, and with self-reported negative history for SARS-CoV-2 infection were eligible. Participants were randomized to receive one of five treatments by intramuscular injection twice, 28 days apart: 1 μg +/-CpG1018 (a toll-like receptor 9 agonist), 3 μg alone, 10 μg alone, or placebo. Participants and personnel assessing outcomes were masked to treatment. The primary outcomes were solicited adverse events (AEs) during 7 days and subject-reported AEs during 28 days after each vaccination. Investigators further reviewed subject-reported AEs. Secondary outcomes were immunogenicity measures (anti-spike immunoglobulin G [IgG] and pseudotyped virus neutralization). This interim analysis assessed safety 56 days after first vaccination (day 57) in treatment-exposed individuals and immunogenicity through 14 days after second vaccination (day 43) per protocol. Between March 15 and April 23, 2021, 224 individuals were screened and 120 were enrolled (25 per group for active vaccination and 20 for placebo). All subjects received two doses. The most common solicited AEs among those receiving active vaccine or placebo were all predominantly mild and included injection site pain or tenderness (ClinicalTrials.govNCT04830800.

Cholera remains a major cause of infectious diarrhea globally. Despite the increased availability of cholera vaccines, there is still an urgent need for other effective interventions to reduce morbidity and mortality. Furthermore, increased prevalence of antibiotic-resistant Vibrio cholerae threatens the use of many drugs commonly used to treat cholera. We developed iOWH032, a synthetic small molecule inhibitor of the cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator chloride channel, as an antisecretory, host-directed therapeutic for cholera. In the study reported here, we tested iOWH032 in a Phase 2a cholera controlled human infection model. Forty-seven subjects were experimentally infected with V. cholerae El Tor Inaba strain N16961 in an inpatient setting and randomized to receive 500 mg iOWH032 or placebo by mouth every 8 hours for 3 days to determine the safety and efficacy of the compound as a potential treatment for cholera. We found that iOWH032 was generally safe and achieved a mean (± standard deviation) plasma level of 4,270 ng/mL (±2,170) after 3 days of oral dosing. However, the median (95% confidence interval) diarrheal stool output rate for the iOWH032 group was 25.4 mL/hour (8.9, 58.3), compared to 32.6 mL/hour (15.8, 48.2) for the placebo group, a reduction of 23%, which was not statistically significant. There was also no significant decrease in diarrhea severity and number or frequency of stools associated with iOWH032 treatment. We conclude that iOWH032 does not merit future development for treatment of cholera and offer lessons learned for others developing antisecretory therapeutic candidates that seek to demonstrate proof of principle in a cholera controlled human infection model study. Trial registration: This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov as NCT04150250., Author summary Cholera, a disease caused by infection with the bacterium Vibrio cholerae, remains a major cause of diarrheal illness and death, particularly in settings with poor sanitation and hygiene. We developed a synthetic chemical, named “iOWH032,” as a potential treatment for cholera, which is administered as oral tablets. The chemical acts by blocking secretions from cells in the intestine, and thereby was expected to prevent fluid loss and dehydration caused by cholera illness. We tested iOWH032 in a clinical study using a cholera human challenge model. Study volunteers were intentionally infected with V. cholerae in an inpatient clinic setting to better study the effects of iOWH032 on infected individuals. This challenge model had been used previously to test cholera vaccine candidates, but this study represents the first test of a potential cholera treatment using the model. We found that treatment of individuals with iOWH032 was safe, but did not result in a significant reduction of cholera illness, based on several different measurements of diarrheal symptoms and severity. This study demonstrates how human challenge models incorporating a relatively small number of subjects can help support decision-making about potential new therapeutics and other interventions for infectious diseases.

SummaryBackgroundProduction of affordable coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in low- and middle-income countries is needed. NDV-HXP-S is an inactivated egg-based Newcastle disease virus vaccine expressing the spike protein of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). It’s being developed in Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil; herein are initial results from Thailand.MethodsThis phase 1 stage of a randomised, dose-escalation, observer-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 1/2 trial was conducted at the Vaccine Trial Centre, Mahidol University (Bangkok). Healthy adults aged 18-59 years, non-pregnant and negative for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies were eligible. Participants were block randomised to receive one of six treatments by intramuscular injection twice, 28 days apart: 1 µg±CpG1018 (a toll-like receptor 9 agonist), 3 µg±CpG1018, 10 µg, or placebo. Participants and personnel assessing outcomes were masked to treatment. The primary outcomes were solicited and spontaneously reported adverse events (AEs) during 7 and 28 days after each vaccination, respectively. Secondary outcomes were immunogenicity measures (anti-S IgG and pseudotyped virus neutralisation). An interim analysis assessed safety at day 57 in treatment-exposed individuals and immunogenicity through day 43 per protocol. ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT04764422).FindingsBetween March 20 and April 23, 2021, 377 individuals were screened and 210 were enrolled (35 per group); all received dose one; five missed dose two. The most common solicited AEs among vaccinees, all predominantly mild, were injection site pain (InterpretationNDV-HXP-S had an acceptable safety profile and potent immunogenicity. The 3 µg and 3 µg+CpG1018 formulations advanced to phase 2.FundingNational Vaccine Institute (Thailand), National Research Council (Thailand), Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institutes of Health (USA)

BackgroundScaling up access to safe, effective, and voluntary family planning (FP) services to achieve universal access for women and families will require increased commitment by countries and international organizations. On the way toward universal access, quantitative family planning goals have also been established by the United Nations through the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Here, we present a model-based framework that can help monitor progress toward these goals at the sub-national and demographic subgroup scale.MethodsWe utilize 90 demographic health surveys for 26 countries that contain associated geographic position system data. We extract survey cluster level data to fit multiple small area estimation models that estimate FP indicators by administrative unit one and two regions as well as different demographic subgroups.FindingsWe find significant variation of modern contraceptive prevalence rates (mCPR), unmet need, and demand satisfied by country, sub-national region, and demographic subgroup. Our model-based estimates show that on average for 436 administrative unit one regions, mCPR has increased at a rate of 0.75% per year and unmet need has decreased by 0.26% per year. There are also striking differences of FP indicators by demographic subgroup; for example, unmet need can be up to 40% different based on age and parity.InterpretationWe have developed a framework to help monitor progress, provide insights about the inequitable progress by region and demographic groups, and account for the sparsity of available data. These results and framework can help policy-makers better allocate and target interventions to help achieve family planning goals.FundingThis publication is based on models and data analysis performed by the Institute for Disease Modeling at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Introduction: Decreasing overweight and obesity prevalence requires precise data at sub-national levels to monitor progress and initiate interventions. This study aimed to estimate baseline age-standardized overweight prevalence at the lowest administrative units among women, 18 years and older, in seven African countries. The study aims are synonymous with indicator 14 of the global non-communicable disease monitoring framework. Methods: We used the most recent Demographic and Health Survey and administrative boundaries data from the GADM. Three Bayesian hierarchical models were fitted and model selection tests implemented. The age-standardized prevalence of overweight among adult women at national, first and second administrative levels were individually reported in each country in the form of maps and tables. Results: Substantial variation in the age-standardized prevalence of adult female overweight was noted across several second-level administrative units. In numerous locations in Tanzania, Nigeria and Zimbabwe, more than half of the adult female population were overweight and in one location in Tanzania, over 72% of the adult female population were overweight. These estimates were roughly twice the national level overweight prevalence and, in some cases, roughly 10 – 20% greater than the overweight prevalence in first-level administrative units. Conclusion: The observed overweight burden in subnational administrative units suggests the presence of an epidemic tantamount to the situation in more affluent economies. African countries lack the resources to effectively handle the fallout from such epidemic, therefore motivating the need for increased urgency in adopting WHO obesity-related intervention guidelines and implementing more rigorous studies to validate the study findings.

Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is an intestinal disorder common among children in low-resource settings and is associated with increased risk of growth stunting, cognitive deficits, and reduced oral vaccine immunogenicity. The Micronutrient and EED Assessment Tool (MEEDAT) is a multiplexed immunoassay that measures biomarkers previously associated with child growth faltering and/or oral vaccine immunogenicity: intestinal fatty acid–binding protein (I-FABP), soluble CD14 (sCD14), insulin-like growth factor 1 (IGF-1), and fibroblast growth factor 21 (FGF21). MEEDAT also measures systemic inflammation (α1-acid glycoprotein, C-reactive protein), ferritin, soluble transferrin receptor, retinol binding protein 4, thyroglobulin, and Plasmodium falciparum antigenemia (histidine-rich protein 2). The performance of MEEDAT was compared with commercially available enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) using 300 specimens from Malian infant clinical trial participants. Regression methods were used to test if MEEDAT biomarkers were associated with seroconversion to meningococcal A conjugate vaccine (MenAV), yellow fever vaccine (YFV), and pentavalent rotavirus vaccine (PRV) after 28 days, or with growth faltering over 12 weeks. The Pearson correlations between the MEEDAT and ELISA results were 0.97, 0.86, 0.80, and 0.97 for serum I-FABP, sCD14, IGF-1, and FGF21, respectively. There were significant associations between I-FABP concentration and the probability of PRV IgG seroconversion and between IGF-1 concentration and the probability of YFV seroconversion. In multivariable models neither association remained significant, however there was a significant negative association between AGP concentration and YFV seroconversion. GLP-2 and sCD14 concentrations were significantly negatively associated with 12-week change in weight-for-age z-score and weight-for-height z-score in multivariable models. MEEDAT performed well in comparison to commercially-available ELISAs for the measurement of four analytes for EED and growth hormone resistance. Adoption of MEEDAT in low-resource settings could help accelerate the identification of interventions that prevent or treat child stunting and interventions that boost the immunogenicity of child vaccinations., Author summary Environmental enteric dysfunction (EED) is an intestinal disorder common among children in low-resource settings and has been associated with increased risk of growth stunting, cognitive deficits, and reduced oral vaccine immunogenicity. A key challenge to identifying children with EED at highest risk of morbid sequelae is the lack of validated predictive biomarkers. Ongoing clinical studies are testing and validating EED biomarkers in child populations at risk for stunting, yet testing multiple biomarkers commonly requires specialized equipment, complex methods, resources, and considerable effort. The Micronutrient and EED Assessment Tool (MEEDAT) is a multiplexed immunoassay that measures biomarkers associated with child growth faltering and oral vaccine immunogenicity, and biomarkers indicative of systemic inflammation and micronutrient deficiencies. The performance of MEEDAT was well-correlated with commercial monoplex assays in specimens from children living in a low-resource setting in the present study. MEEDAT biomarkers were associated with growth outcomes and seroconversion in response to several vaccines. MEEDAT has the potential to reduce the time and cost of evaluating impact of interventions targeting EED.

PurposeGiven incomplete data reporting by race, we used data on COVID-19 cases and deaths in US counties to describe racial disparities in COVID-19 disease and death and associated determinants.MethodsUsing publicly available data (accessed April 13, 2020), predictors of COVID-19 cases and deaths were compared between disproportionately (≥13%) black and all other (ResultsNearly ninety-seven percent of disproportionately black counties (656/677) reported a case and 49% (330/677) reported a death versus 81% (1987/2,465) and 28% (684/ 2465), respectively, for all other counties. Counties with higher proportions of black people have higher prevalence of comorbidities and greater air pollution. Counties with higher proportions of black residents had more COVID-19 diagnoses (RR 1.24, 95% CI 1.17-1.33) and deaths (RR 1.18, 95% CI 1.00-1.40), after adjusting for county-level characteristics such as age, poverty, comorbidities, and epidemic duration. COVID-19 deaths were higher in disproportionally black rural and small metro counties. The PAF of COVID-19 diagnosis due to lack of health insurance was 3.3% for counties with ConclusionsNearly twenty-two percent of US counties are disproportionately black and they accounted for 52% of COVID-19 diagnoses and 58% of COVID-19 deaths nationally. County-level comparisons can both inform COVID-19 responses and identify epidemic hot spots. Social conditions, structural racism, and other factors elevate risk for COVID-19 diagnoses and deaths in black communities.

This analysis examined how polio program costs vary with scale for vaccination and disease surveillance, based on historical budget data published by the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) from 2005 to 2018. We applied a linear mixed effects regression model in order to understand the cost structure of the historical GPEI budgets, with the goal that lessons learned from polio may be extended to other global disease elimination programs. Our findings demonstrate that there are economies of scale for vaccine delivery operations and for disease surveillance, which means that larger programs can leverage fixed costs and achieve better cost-efficiency as they scale. This finding should enable decision makers to create more reliable budgets, which support fundraising and optimal resource allocation. They also provide insight into how cost effectiveness changes as programs scale up during progressive disease control and elimination, as well as what level of resources are needed to sustain a program that is scaling back post-eradication and through to certification.

BackgroundThe polio environmental surveillance (ES) system has been an incredible tool for advancing polio eradication efforts because of its ability to highlight the spatial and temporal extent of poliovirus circulation. While ES often outperforms, or is more sensitive than AFP surveillance, the sensitivity of the ES system has not been well characterized. Fundamental uncertainty of ES site sensitivity makes it difficult to interpret results from ES, particularly negative results.Methods and findingsTo study ES sensitivity, we used data from Afghanistan and Pakistan to examine the probability that each ES site detected the Sabin 1, 2, or 3 components of the oral polio vaccine (OPV) as a function of virus prevalence within the same district (estimated from AFP data). Accounting for virus prevalence is essential for estimating site sensitivity because Sabin detection rates should vary with prevalence-high immediately after supplemental immunization activities (SIAs), but low in subsequent months. We found that most ES sites in Pakistan and Afghanistan are highly sensitive for detecting poliovirus relative to AFP surveillance in the same districts. For example, even when Sabin poliovirus is at low prevalence of ~0.5-3% in AFP surveillance, most ES sites have ~34-50% probability of detecting Sabin. However, there was considerable variation in ES site sensitivity and we flagged several sites for re-evaluation based on low sensitivity rankings and low wild polio virus detection rates. In these areas, adding new sites or modifying collection methods in current sites could improve sensitivity of environmental surveillance.ConclusionsRelating ES detections to virus prevalence significantly improved our ability to evaluate site sensitivity compared to evaluations based solely on ES detection rates. To extend our approach to new sites and regions, we provide a preliminary framework for relating ES and AFP detection rates, and descriptions of how detection rates might relate to SIAs and natural seasonality.

Smokers with depressive symptoms have more difficulty quitting smoking than the general population of smokers. The present study examines a web-based treatment using acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) for smokers with depressive symptoms. The study aimed to determine participant receptivity to the intervention and its effects on smoking cessation, acceptance of internal cues, and depressive symptoms.Smokers who had positive screening results for depressive symptoms at baseline (n = 94) were selected from a randomized controlled trial (N = 222) comparing web-based ACT for smoking cessation (WebQuit.org) with Smokefree.gov. Forty-five participants (48%) completed the three-month follow-up.Compared to Smokefree.gov, WebQuit participants spent significantly more time on site (p =.001) and had higher acceptance of physical cravings (p =.033). While not significant, WebQuit participants were more engaged and satisfied with their program and were more accepting of internal cues overall. There was preliminary evidence that WebQuit participants had higher quit rates (20% versus 12%) and lower depressive symptoms at follow-up (45% versus 56%) than those in Smokefree.gov.This was the first study of web-based ACT for smoking cessation among smokers with depressive symptoms, with promising evidence of receptivity, efficacy, impact on a theory-based change process, and possible secondary effects on depression. A fully powered trial of the ACT WebQuit.org intervention specifically for depressed smokers is needed. This was part of a clinical trial registered as NCT#01166334 at www.clinicaltrials.gov .

The globally synchronized removal of the attenuated Sabin type 2 strain from the oral polio vaccine (OPV) in April 2016 marked a major change in polio vaccination policy. This change will provide a significant reduction in the burden of vaccine-associated paralytic polio (VAPP), but may increase the risk of circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) outbreaks during the transition period. This risk can be monitored by tracking the disappearance of Sabin-like type 2 (SL2) using data from the polio surveillance system. We studied SL2 prevalence in 17 countries in Africa and Asia, from 2010 to 2016 using acute flaccid paralysis surveillance data. We modeled the peak and decay of SL2 prevalence following mass vaccination events using a beta-binomial model for the detection rate, and a Ricker function for the temporal dependence. We found type 2 circulated the longest of all serotypes after a vaccination campaign, but that SL2 prevalence returned to baseline levels in approximately 50days. Post-cessation model predictions identified 19 anomalous SL2 detections outside of model predictions in Afghanistan, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and western Africa. Our models established benchmarks for the duration of SL2 detection after OPV2 cessation. As predicted, SL2 detection rates have plummeted, except in Nigeria where OPV2 use continued for some time in response to recent cVDPV2 detections. However, the anomalous SL2 detections suggest specific areas that merit enhanced monitoring for signs of cVDPV2 outbreaks.

Currently, there are over 400 smoking cessation smartphone apps available, downloaded an estimated 780,000 times per month. No prior studies have examined how individuals engage with specific features of cessation apps and whether use of these features is associated with quitting.Using data from a pilot trial of a novel smoking cessation app, we examined: (i) the 10 most-used app features, and (ii) prospective associations between feature usage and quitting.Participants (n = 76) were from the experimental arm of a randomized, controlled pilot trial of an app for smoking cessation called "SmartQuit," which includes elements of both Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) and traditional cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT). Utilization data were automatically tracked during the 8-week treatment phase. Thirty-day point prevalence smoking abstinence was assessed at 60-day follow-up.The most-used features - quit plan, tracking, progress, and sharing - were mostly CBT. Only two of the 10 most-used features were prospectively associated with quitting: viewing the quit plan (p = 0.03) and tracking practice of letting urges pass (p = 0.03). Tracking ACT skill practice was used by fewer participants (n = 43) but was associated with cessation (p = 0.01).In this exploratory analysis without control for multiple comparisons, viewing a quit plan (CBT) as well as tracking practice of letting urges pass (ACT) were both appealing to app users and associated with successful quitting. Aside from these features, there was little overlap between a feature's popularity and its prospective association with quitting. Tests of causal associations between feature usage and smoking cessation are now needed.

Small area estimation (SAE) is an important endeavor in many fields and is used for resource allocation by both public health and government organizations. Often, complex surveys are carried out within areas, in which case it is common for the data to consist only of the response of interest and an associated sampling weight, reflecting the design. While it is appealing to use spatial smoothing models, and many approaches have been suggested for this endeavor, it is rare for spatial models to incorporate the weighting scheme, leaving the analysis potentially subject to bias. To examine the properties of various approaches to estimation we carry out a simulation study, looking at bias due to both non-response and non-random sampling. We also carry out SAE of smoking prevalence in Washington State, at the zip code level, using data from the 2006 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. The computation times for the methods we compare are short, and all approaches are implemented in R using currently available packages.

Web-based behavioral interventions for substance use are being developed at a rapid pace, yet there is a dearth of information regarding the most effective methods for recruiting participants into web-based intervention trials. In this paper, we describe our successful recruitment of participants into a pilot trial of web-based Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) for smoking cessation and compare traditional and web-based methods of recruitment in terms of their effects on baseline participant characteristics, association with study retention and treatment outcome, yield, and cost-effectiveness. Over a 10-week period starting June 15, 2010, we recruited 222 smokers for a web-based smoking cessation study using a variety of recruitment methods. The largest portion of randomized participants were recruited through Google AdWords (36%), followed by medical Internet media (23%), standard media (14%), word of mouth (12%), broadcast emails (11%), and social media (6%). Recruitment source was not related to baseline participant characteristics, 3-month data retention, or 30-day point prevalence smoking abstinence at the 3-month outcome assessment. Cost per randomized participant ranged from $5.27/participant for word of mouth to $172.76/participant for social media, with a mean cost of $42.48/participant. Our diversified approach to recruitment, including both traditional and web-based methods, enabled timely enrollment of participants into the study. Because there was no evidence of a substantive difference in baseline characteristics, retention, or outcomes based on recruitment channel, the yield and cost-effectiveness of recruitment methods may be the more critical considerations in developing a feasible recruitment plan for a web-based smoking cessation intervention study.

Background Preoperative simulation warm-up has been shown to improve performance and reduce errors in novice and experienced surgeons, yet existing studies have only investigated conventional laparoscopy. We hypothesized that a brief virtual reality (VR) robotic warm-up would enhance robotic task performance and reduce errors. Study Design In a 2-center randomized trial, 51 residents and experienced minimally invasive surgery faculty in General Surgery, Urology, and Gynecology underwent a validated robotic surgery proficiency curriculum on a VR robotic simulator and on the da Vinci surgical robot (Intuitive Surgical Inc). Once they successfully achieved performance benchmarks, surgeons were randomized to either receive a 3- to 5-minute VR simulator warm-up or read a leisure book for 10 minutes before performing similar and dissimilar (intracorporeal suturing) robotic surgery tasks. The primary outcomes compared were task time, tool path length, economy of motion, technical, and cognitive errors. Results Task time (−29.29 seconds, p = 0.001; 95% CI, −47.03 to −11.56), path length (−79.87 mm; p = 0.014; 95% CI, −144.48 to −15.25), and cognitive errors were reduced in the warm-up group compared with the control group for similar tasks. Global technical errors in intracorporeal suturing (0.32; p = 0.020; 95% CI, 0.06−0.59) were reduced after the dissimilar VR task. When surgeons were stratified by earlier robotic and laparoscopic clinical experience, the more experienced surgeons (n = 17) demonstrated significant improvements from warm-up in task time (−53.5 seconds; p = 0.001; 95% CI, −83.9 to −23.0) and economy of motion (0.63 mm/s; p = 0.007; 95% CI, 0.18–1.09), and improvement in these metrics was not statistically significantly appreciated in the less-experienced cohort (n = 34). Conclusions We observed significant performance improvement and error reduction rates among surgeons of varying experience after VR warm-up for basic robotic surgery tasks. In addition, the VR warm-up reduced errors on a more complex task (robotic suturing), suggesting the generalizability of the warm-up.

Background— Patients with heart failure (HF) have higher fasting insulin levels and a higher prevalence of insulin resistance as compared with matched controls. Insulin resistance leads to structural abnormalities in the heart, such as increased left atrial size, left ventricular mass, and alterations in transmitral velocity that can precede the diagnosis of HF. It is not known whether insulin resistance precedes the development of HF or whether the relationship between insulin resistance and HF is present among adults with HF caused by nonischemic heart disease. Methods and Results— We examined 4425 participants (60% women) from the Cardiovascular Health Study after excluding those with HF, myocardial infarction, or treated diabetes mellitus at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards models to estimate the relative risk of incident HF associated with fasting insulin measured at study entry. There were 1216 cases of incident HF (1103 without antecedent myocardial infarction) during a median follow-up of 12 years (maximum, 19 years). Fasting insulin levels were positively associated with the risk of incident HF (hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.05–1.15, per SD change) when adjusted for age, sex, race, field center, physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, and waist circumference. The association between fasting insulin levels and incident HF was similar for HF without antecedent myocardial infarction (hazard ratio, 1.10; 95% confidence interval, 1.05–1.15). Measures of left atrial size, left ventricular mass, and peak A velocity at baseline were associated both with fasting insulin levels and with HF; however, additional statistical adjustment for these parameters did not completely attenuate the insulin-HF estimate (hazard ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval, 1.03–1.14 per 1-SD increase in fasting insulin). Conclusions— Fasting insulin was positively associated with adverse echocardiographic features and risk of subsequent HF in Cardiovascular Health Study participants, including those without an antecedent myocardial infarction. Clinical Trial Registration— URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov . Unique identifier: NCT00005133.

We propose a mixture model framework for estimating positive false discovery rates in multiple-testing problems. The density of a transformed p -value is modeled by a finite mixture of skewed distributions. We argue that a mixture of skewed distributions like the skew-normal one is better for addressing some features in modeling than the more commonly used mixture of normal distributions. Using the fitted distributions, we estimate the proportion of true null hypotheses, the positive false discovery rate and other important functionals in multiple-testing problems. We investigate the performance of our methodology via simulation and illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed procedure using real data examples. We also discuss the role of an empirical null in place of the theoretical null distributions in the context of common biomedical applications.

Introduction King County, Washington, fares well overall in many health indicators. However, county-level data mask disparities among subcounty areas. For disparity-focused assessment, a demand exists for examining health data at subcounty levels such as census tracts and King County health reporting areas (HRAs). Methods We added a “nearest intersection” question to the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and geocoded the data for subcounty geographic areas, including census tracts. To overcome small sample size at the census tract level, we used hierarchical Bayesian models to obtain smoothed estimates in cigarette smoking rates at the census tract and HRA levels. We also used multiple imputation to adjust for missing values in census tracts. Results Direct estimation of adult smoking rates at the census tract level ranged from 0% to 56% with a median of 10%. The 90% confidence interval (CI) half-width for census tract with nonzero rates ranged from 1 percentage point to 37 percentage points with a median of 13 percentage points. The smoothed-multiple–imputation rates ranged from 5% to 28% with a median of 12%. The 90% CI half-width ranged from 4 percentage points to 13 percentage points with a median of 8 percentage points. Conclusion The nearest intersection question in the BRFSS provided geocoded data at subcounty levels. The Bayesian model provided estimation with improved precision at the census tract and HRA levels. Multiple imputation can be used to account for missing geographic data. Small-area estimation, which has been used for King County public health programs, has increasingly become a useful tool to meet the demand of presenting data at more granular levels.

BACKGROUND: Epidemiological studies that assess the health effects of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution are used to inform public policy. These studies rely on exposure models that use data collected from pollution monitoring sites to predict exposures at subject locations. Land use regression (LUR) and universal kriging (UK) have been suggested as potential prediction methods. We evaluate these approaches on a dataset including measurements from three seasons in Los Angeles, CA. METHODS: The measurements of gaseous oxides of nitrogen (NOx) used in this study are from a "snapshot" sampling campaign that is part of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). The measurements in Los Angeles were collected during three two-week periods in the summer, autumn, and winter, each with about 150 sites. The design included clusters of monitors on either side of busy roads to capture near-field gradients of traffic-related pollution. LUR and UK prediction models were created using geographic information system (GIS)-based covariates. Selection of covariates was based on 10-fold cross-validated (CV) R(2) and root mean square error (RMSE). Since UK requires specialized software, a computationally simpler two-step procedure was also employed to approximate fitting the UK model using readily available regression and GIS software. RESULTS: UK models consistently performed as well as or better than the analogous LUR models. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific UK models predicting log(NOx) were 0.75, 0.72, and 0.74 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.15) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. The best CV R(2) values for season-specific LUR models predicting log(NOx) were 0.74, 0.60, and 0.67 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.20, and 0.17). The two-stage approximation to UK also performed better than LUR and nearly as well as the full UK model with CV R(2) values 0.75, 0.70, and 0.70 (CV RMSE 0.20, 0.17, and 0.17) for summer, autumn, and winter, respectively. CONCLUSION: High quality LUR and UK prediction models for NOx in Los Angeles were developed for the three seasons based on data collected for MESA Air. In our study, UK consistently outperformed LUR. Similarly, the 2-step approach was more effective than the LUR models, with performance equal to or slightly worse than UK.

BACKGROUND Individual measures and previous composite measures of subclinical vascular disease defined high risk for cardiovascular events, but did not detect low and modest risk. A different approach might better describe the spectrum from low to high risk. Methods and Results. In the Cardiovascular Health Study, 3,252 participants without history of clinical cardiovascular disease (M ± SD 74.3 years ± 5.1, 63% women, 17% African Americans) had noninvasive vascular assessments in 1992-1993. We assigned a score of 0, 1, or 2 (no, mild, or severe abnormalities) to ankle-arm index, electrocardiogram, and common carotid intima-media thickness, based on clinical cutoffs. A summary index (range 0-6, absent to severe disease) summed individual scores. Abdominal aortic ultrasound and brain magnetic resonance imaging were collected in a subsample. Mortality and incident cardiovascular events were identified through June 2008. Event and death rates increased across index grades. Comparing grades 1 to 5+ with absent disease, and adjusting for demographics, hazard ratios for cardiovascular events within 8 years ranged from 1.1 (95% confidence interval 0.8-1.6) to 4.7 (3.4-6.9) and, for mortality, from 1.5 (1.0-2.3) to 5.0 (3.3-7.7) (p for trend across grades

Many people living in low- and middle-income countries are not covered by civil registration and vital statistics systems. Consequently, a wide variety of other types of data, including many household sample surveys, are used to estimate health and population indicators. In this paper we combine data from sample surveys and demographic surveillance systems to produce small area estimates of child mortality through time. Small area estimates are necessary to understand geographical heterogeneity in health indicators when full-coverage vital statistics are not available. For this endeavor spatio-temporal smoothing is beneficial to alleviate problems of data sparsity. The use of conventional hierarchical models requires careful thought since the survey weights may need to be considered to alleviate bias due to nonrandom sampling and nonresponse. The application that motivated this work is an estimation of child mortality rates in five-year time intervals in regions of Tanzania. Data come from Demographic and Health Surveys conducted over the period 1991-2010 and two demographic surveillance system sites. We derive a variance estimator of under five years child mortality that accounts for the complex survey weighting. For our application, the hierarchical models we consider include random effects for area, time and survey and we compare models using a variety of measures including the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO). The method we propose is implemented via the fast and accurate integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA)., Comment: Published at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS872 in the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org)

We conducted a pilot randomized trial of telephone-delivered acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) versus cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) for smoking cessation.Participants were 121 uninsured South Carolina State Quitline callers who were adult smokers (at least 10 cigarettes/day) and who wanted to quit within the next 30 days. Participants were randomized to 5 sessions of either ACT or CBT telephone counseling and were offered 2 weeks of nicotine replacement therapy (NRT).ACT participants completed more calls than CBT participants (M = 3.25 in ACT vs. 2.23 in CBT; p = .001). Regarding satisfaction, 100% of ACT participants reported their treatment was useful for quitting smoking (vs. 87% for CBT; p = .03), and 97% of ACT participants would recommend their treatment to a friend (vs. 83% for CBT; p = .06). On the primary outcome of intent-to-treat 30-day point prevalence abstinence at 6 months postrandomization, the quit rates were 31% in ACT versus 22% in CBT (odds ratio [OR] = 1.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.7-3.4). Among participants depressed at baseline (n = 47), the quit rates were 33% in ACT versus 13% in CBT (OR = 1.2, 95% CI = 1.0-1.6). Consistent with ACT's theory, among participants scoring low on acceptance of cravings at baseline (n = 57), the quit rates were 37% in ACT versus 10% in CBT (OR = 5.3, 95% CI = 1.3-22.0).ACT is feasible to deliver by phone, is highly acceptable to quitline callers, and shows highly promising quit rates compared with standard CBT quitline counseling. As results were limited by the pilot design (e.g., small sample), a full-scale efficacy trial is now needed.

Background: The goal of the study was to evaluate the efficacy of physical therapy in restoring function and mobility after a pediatric supracondylar humeral fracture. Methods: The study included sixty-one patients from five to twelve years of age with a supracondylar humeral fracture that was treated with casting or with closed reduction and pinning followed by casting. Patients were randomized to receive either no further treatment (no-PT group) or six sessions of a standardized hospital-based physical therapy program (PT group). The ASK-p (Activities Scale for Kids-performance version) and self-assessments of activity were used to assess function at one, nine, fifteen, and twenty-seven weeks after injury. Motion was measured at nine and fifteen weeks after injury by a blinded therapist. Anxiety was measured at one and nine weeks after injury with a self-assessment. Differences in ASK-p scores and anxiety level were analyzed with use of multivariate generalized estimating equations. Results: ASK-p scores were significantly better in the no-PT group at nine and fifteen weeks after injury (p = 0.02 and 0.01, respectively) but the difference at twenty-seven weeks was not significant. There were no differences between groups with respect to performance of activities of daily living or time to return to sports. Anxiety at nine weeks was associated with worse ASK-p scores at nine and fifteen weeks in the PT group and with better ASK-p scores in the no-PT group at these time points (p = 0.01 and 0.02, respectively). There were no differences between the groups with respect to elbow motion in the injured arm at any time. Severity of injury had no impact on function or elbow motion in either the PT or the no-PT group. Conclusions: Children undergoing closed treatment of a supracondylar humeral fracture that was limited to approximately three weeks of cast immobilization received no benefit involving either return of function or elbow motion from a short course of physical therapy. Level of Evidence: Therapeutic Level I. See Instructions for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

There is a dual need for (1) innovative theory-based smartphone applications for smoking cessation and (2) controlled trials to evaluate their efficacy. Accordingly, this study tested the feasibility, acceptability, preliminary efficacy, and mechanism of behavioral change of an innovative smartphone-delivered acceptance and commitment therapy (ACT) application for smoking cessation vs. an application following US Clinical Practice Guidelines.Adult participants were recruited nationally into the double-blind randomized controlled pilot trial (n=196) that compared smartphone-delivered ACT for smoking cessation application (SmartQuit) with the National Cancer Institute's application for smoking cessation (QuitGuide).We recruited 196 participants in two months. SmartQuit participants opened their application an average of 37.2 times, as compared to 15.2 times for QuitGuide participants (p0001). The overall quit rates were 13% in SmartQuit vs. 8% in QuitGuide (OR=2.7; 95% CI=0.8-10.3). Consistent with ACT's theory of change, among those scoring low (below the median) on acceptance of cravings at baseline (n=88), the quit rates were 15% in SmartQuit vs. 8% in QuitGuide (OR=2.9; 95% CI=0.6-20.7).ACT is feasible to deliver by smartphone application and shows higher engagement and promising quit rates compared to an application that follows US Clinical Practice Guidelines. As results were limited by the pilot design (e.g., small sample), a full-scale efficacy trial is now needed.

No studies to date have examined the effect of counselor techniques on smoking cessation over the course of treatment. To address this gap, we examined the degree to which the use of specific Acceptance and Commitment Therapy (ACT) counseling techniques in a given session predicted smoking cessation reported at the next session. The data came from the ACT arm of a randomized controlled trial of a telephone-delivered smoking cessation intervention. Trained raters coded 139 counseling sessions across 44 participants. The openness, awareness and activation components of the ACT model were rated for each telephone counseling session. Multilevel logistic regression models were used to estimate the predictive relationship between each component during any given telephone session and smoking cessation at the following telephone session. For every 1-unit increase in counselors' use of openness and awareness techniques there were 42% and 52% decreases in the odds of smoking at the next counseling session, respectively. However, there was no significant predictive relationship between counselors' use of activation techniques and smoking cessation. Overall, results highlight the theoretical and clinical value of examining therapists' techniques as predictors of outcome during the course of treatment.

BACKGROUND Controversies exist in the adult literature regarding the use of kidneys from small donors into larger recipients. Little is known regarding this issue in pediatric kidney transplantation. To assess the impact of donor/recipient size mismatch on long-term renal graft survival in pediatric patients undergoing living-donor renal transplantation. METHODS We reviewed the United Network for Organ Sharing database from 1987 to 2010 for adolescent (11-18 years old) patients who underwent primary living-donor renal transplantation. According to donor/recipient body surface area (BSA) ratio, patients were stratified into two categories: BSA ratio

Surgical infants requiring long-term parenteral nutrition (PN) are at risk for parenteral nutrition-associated liver disease (PNALD). The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of a lipid restricted PN regimen in preventing the development of PNALD in surgical infants.In 2009, we implemented a lipid restricted strategy in surgical infants expected to be on long-term PN using a soy-based lipid emulsion at a goal provision of 1g/kg/day throughout a patient's entire PN course. An experimental cohort of surgical infants treated with lipid restriction from 2009 to 2011 (n=82) was retrospectively compared to a control cohort of infants from 2005 to 2008 receiving standard intravenous lipid dosing (n=132). A multivariable relative risk regression model was constructed analyzing the association between lipid restriction and PNALD.Patients admitted during the lipid restriction era had reduced daily lipid provisions compared to the control group (p0.001). There were no significant differences in demographic or measured clinical characteristics between the two groups. A significant reduction in the incidence of PNALD was demonstrated in the lipid restricted group compared to the control group (22% vs. 43%, p=0.002). On multivariable relative risk regression, patients treated with standard lipid provisions were 1.77 times more likely to develop PNALD than patients who were lipid restricted (95% CI: 1.2-2.7; p=0.007).Restriction of intravenous soy-based lipid in PN-fed surgical infants is associated with a reduction in the incidence of liver disease. Early lipid restriction should be considered in all surgical infants who require PN as a preventative measure against PNALD.

SummaryIn this paper, we developed and compared several expectation–maximization (EM) algorithms to find maximum likelihood estimates of individual inbreeding coefficients using molecular marker information. The first method estimates the inbreeding coefficient for a single individual and assumes that allele frequencies are known without error. The second method jointly estimates inbreeding coefficients and allele frequencies for a set of individuals that have been genotyped at several loci. The third method generalizes the second method to include the case in which null alleles may be present. In particular, it is able to jointly estimate individual inbreeding coefficients and allele frequencies, including the frequencies of null alleles, and accounts for missing data. We compared our methods with several other estimation procedures using simulated data and found that our methods perform well. The maximum likelihood estimators consistently gave among the lowest root-mean-square-error (RMSE) of all the estimators that were compared. Our estimator that accounts for null alleles performed particularly well and was able to tease apart the effects of null alleles, randomly missing genotypes and differing degrees of inbreeding among members of the datasets we analysed. To illustrate the performance of our estimators, we analysed previously published datasets on mice (Mus musculus) and white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus).

Background Haptophytes are widely and abundantly distributed in both marine and freshwater ecosystems. Few genomic analyses of representatives within this taxon have been reported, despite their early evolutionary origins and their prominent role in global carbon fixation. Results The complete mitochondrial and chloroplast genome sequences of the haptophyte Chrysochromulina tobin (Prymnesiales) provide insight into the architecture and gene content of haptophyte organellar genomes. The mitochondrial genome (~34 kb) encodes 21 protein coding genes and contains a complex, 9 kb tandem repeat region. Similar to other haptophytes and rhodophytes, but not cryptophytes or stramenopiles, the mitochondrial genome has lost the nad7, nad9 and nad11 genes. The ~105 kb chloroplast genome encodes 112 protein coding genes, including ycf39 which has strong structural homology to NADP-binding nitrate transcriptional regulators; a divergent ‘CheY-like’ two-component response regulator (ycf55) and Tic/Toc (ycf60 and ycf80) membrane transporters. Notably, a zinc finger domain has been identified in the rpl36 ribosomal protein gene of all chloroplasts sequenced to date with the exception of haptophytes and cryptophytes - algae that have gained (via lateral gene transfer) an alternative rpl36 lacking the zinc finger motif. The two C. tobin chloroplast ribosomal RNA operon spacer regions differ in tRNA content. Additionally, each ribosomal operon contains multiple single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) - a pattern observed in rhodophytes and cryptophytes, but few stramenopiles. Analysis of small (