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The semi-arid Lokere and Lokok catchments in northeastern Uganda are experiencing land use and land cover (LULC) change driven by policies and actions aimed at pastoralist sedentarisation. While these efforts present a trajectory of a landscape dominated by farming, livestock herding or grazing persists. The objective of this study was to project medium, and long-term LULC for Lokere and Lokok catchments in Karamoja, Uganda. We applied automatic multi-perceptron neural network, built on Markov chain modeling method, along with multi-criteria evaluation strategies; all embedded in the IDRISI Land Change Modeler (LCM) to project the catchments’ LULC to the year 2030 and 2050. The model was trained using 1994 and 2003 LULC, and validated with 2013 LULC. Results of three modelled policy scenarios; business as usual (BAU), pro-livestock and pro-farming; to the years 2030 and 2050 showed that small scale farming (SSF) would increase in all scenarios, even if policy shifts to promote livestock rearing. Pro-farming policies would, in both 2030 and 2050, result in reduction of grassland as SSF increases; doubling the 2003 land area by 2050. The results of this study facilitate assessment of potential impacts of the future LULC and policy evaluation in the catchments.

The need to address wildlife conservation outside of protected areas has become more urgent than ever before to meet environmental and socio‐economic goals. However, there is limited knowledge about how woody plants respond to herbivory within landscapes shared by wildlife and domestic herbivores in African savanna, thus management decisions might be based on inaccurate information and ultimately be ineffective. We compared woody vegetation dynamics between two adjacent ranches with different management objectives and subjected to varying levels of herbivory by both wildlife and domesticated mammals using 421 square plots of 400 m2 nested on three transects, each 3 km long and purposively selected to minimize bio‐physical differences. Both species and structural diversity were significantly higher (p

Soil properties contribute to the widely recognised resilience of semiarid areas. However, limited attention has been given in providing a scientific basis of how semiarid soil properties in the various land covers occur and how they influence forage quantity. This study investigated the influence of different soil properties and land cover types on herbaceous biomass quantity in the Karamoja subregion of Uganda. A completely randomized design in three land cover types (thickets and shrublands, woodlands, and savannah grasslands) was implemented. In each vegetation type, 50 × 40 m plots were demarcated with nested plots to facilitate clipping of the herbaceous layer. Composite soil samples at two depths (0–15 cm, 15–30 cm) were obtained from each plot. The results showed that soil properties varied across land cover types. Soil pH ranged between 6.9 and 8.1 and SOM, N, P, and K were generally low in all land cover types. Soil hydraulic properties revealed the existence of rapid to very rapid permeability in thickets/shrublands, grasslands, and woodlands. Percent change in soil properties (0–15 cm to 15–30 cm) was highest in P, Ca, Mg, Na, and SOM. In the grasslands, P positively (p≤0.01) influenced herbaceous biomass, whereas pH, K, Na, % sand, and % clay, N, and SOM had a negative relationship with herbaceous biomass (p≤0.05). Herbaceous biomass in the thickets/shrublands was negatively influenced by P, Ca, and Mg and % clay and positively by N and % silt (p≤0.05). Only N and SOM were significant determinants of herbaceous biomass in the woodlands (p≤0.05). The low level of soil nutrients observed in this study reveals the fragility of semiarid soils, indicating the need for sustainable landscape management.

Evaluation of the changes in land use and land cover change (LULCC) in respect to oil exploration across the Albertine region in Uganda has been focused around the exploration areas and protected areas, with no attention to the potential impacts of evictees’ activities on resettled areas. This study used LANDSAT images to analyze the land use and land cover changes (LULCC) among the period before eviction (2002 and 2005) at the climax of eviction and resettlements (2005-2011), and during the post-resettlement period (2011-2015) to quantify the impacts of resettlements on the environment. LANDSAT images were processed using ERDAS IMAGINE software and analyzed using ArcGIS 10.1 to determine LULCC in relation to post-eviction resettlement in the study area. Results from the study indicate. The results of the study indicate that vegetation reduced by 33.08 percent, woodland were converted into settlements by 48 percent while farmlands increased by 18.3 percent. Non vegetated areas increased during resettlements however they reduced five years after eviction which indicated the ability of the ecosystem to stabilize. The study proved that post eviction induced resettlements can yield potential environmental effects to resettled areas. It is important therefore to plan and implement other means of additional source of income and construction materials for evictees to abate vegetation clearance and hence rescue the woodland. The study also recommends maintenance of an optimum population and well-planned pre eviction resettlement schemes.

Uganda’s confirmation of viable commercial quantities of oil in the Albertine Graben has triggered a wave of land evictions of people from their traditional lands. However, there is a dearth of information on the impact of such evictions on the displaced households and people’s livelihoods, and why some households recover and others fall into vulnerability. Data was collected through a cross-sectional survey among 362 randomly selected households. A revised FAO Resilience Index Measurement and Analysis was used to evaluate data. Results indicate that resilience-enhancing characteristics include: household food security and access score, frequency of external assistance amount of cash and in kind assistance, and herd and crop field size after eviction. Pastoralist and off-farm dependent households had higher resilience compared to small-holder farmers and agro-pastoralists. Pastoralists appear to be the more resilient group because of mobility; this allows them have access to pasture and water around the conservation area. Smallholder farmers and agro-pastoralists had the least adaptive capacity and easily became more vulnerable. We conclude that smallholder farmers and agro-pastoralists lack capacity to withstand post eviction shocks because of the inability to adjust and adapt to these changes in real time.

Suitable location and influx of immigrants have made pastoral peri-urban Kajiado County a centre of two conflicting interests; urban sprawl and agricultural intensification. To understand the resulting trends over the period 1984-2010 satellite image based analysis of land use cover changes and interviews with landowners were conducted. Interviews focused on the changes and trends in land use, their causes and future forecasts. Percentage changes in land use and land cover types for the years 1984 to 2004, 2004 to 2010 and 1984 to 2010 were determined. Between 1984 and 2010, significant (p < 0.05) changes occurred in built-up, crop land, rangelands, bare ground, rocky areas and woodlots and riverine vegetation. Only water bodies showed no significant changes. Land use and cover changes resulted from activities due to human population growth and agricultural expansion which in turn resulted in increase in riverine vegetation and woodlots. The interviews revealed that selling of land contributed to land use change depending on the intended use of the buyers who were mainly influenced by the physical location with respect to distance to Nairobi, urban centres, electricity supply and road networks. As per the findings of the study, the present scenario demands a revision in the zoning policy using the land use land cover maps produced, involvement of all stake holders and revision of implementation strategies given that the 2008 land use master plan for the area was not actualized. Key words: Pastoral peri-urban, immigrants, land use change, intended land use, Kajiado County.

Semi-arid areas show climatic variability on a spatio-temporal scale. There are few studies on the long-term trends and intensity of this variability from East Africa. We used National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration re-analysis climate data (1979–2009) in this study. Rainfall exhibited a non-significant long-term trend. The climate of the area is variable (coefficient of variation-CV >35.0%) with spatio-temporal oddities in rainfall and temperature. A rise in minimum (0.9 °C), maximum (1.6 °C) and mean (1.3 °C) temperature occurred between 1979 and 2009. There were more months with climate variability indices below the threshold ( 2.6) were experienced between 2004 and 2009 than between 1984 and 2003. We consider that the use of spatio-temporal climatic informati...

In Kenya’s Northeastern Province, pastoralism is the main livestock production system and means of livelihood. However, pastoralists are facing increasing risks such as drought, insecurity, animal diseases, increasing human populations and land fragmentation. This study sought to evaluate household livestock herd structures and dynamics in view of such risks and subsistence and market demands. The study was conducted in Garissa County of Kenya, using a cross-sectional household survey. The data was analysed for descriptive statistics of household livestock status, dynamics and demographic parameters. The results showed that females of reproductive age formed over 50 % of all livestock species. Cattle had the highest turnover and all species’ mortalities accounted for the greater proportion of exits. Cattle had the highest multiplication and growth rates, but also the highest mortality, offtake, commercial offtake and intake rates. Goats had the lowest mortalities, offtake, commercial offtake and intake rates. Overall, the herds were structured to provide for both immediate and future needs in terms of milk, sales and herd replacement as well as for rapid recovery after disasters. The livestock herd dynamics indicate efforts at culling, restocking, retention of valuable categories of animals, and natural events. Livestock populations would be annihilated over time if the trends in end balances and negative growth rates were to continue and not be interrupted by the upward phases of the livestock cycles. It was recommended that the Government and development partners should undertake interventions to balance the herd dynamics in favour of entries by improvement of reproduction and reduction of mortalities, and support livelihood diversification to reduce dependence on livestock.

Low-input pastoral production systems provide up to 90 % of livestock and livestock products consumed in Uganda. However, pastoral communities are increasingly faced with the challenge of meeting their livestock needs in terms of forage, a situation exacerbated by climatic variability. The study identified the patterns of forage availability and quality, compared perceived patterns of forage availability with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and determined drivers of forage availability in Karamoja sub-region. Over a 12-month period, 75.3 % of the respondents perceived forage to be sufficiently available with differentiated availability in the livelihood zones and between livestock species (goats, sheep, cattle, donkeys and camels). A similar pattern was observed with regard to perceived forage quality. A significant relationship between perceived forage availability and long-term mean monthly NDVI dynamics was observed. A lag time of 2.9 months existed between rainfall and vegetation response peak periods. Mean monthly rainfall pattern was found to be correlated with perceived forage availability. The length of residence by a livestock keeper, frequency of grazing, number of kraals, presence of governing rules, and presence of conflicts and knowledge of pasture locations, restricted movement and ease of access to grazing areas significantly (P ≤ 0.05) were the major perceived drivers of forage availability. Therefore, we find that pastoral communities in Karamoja have detailed traditional ecological knowledge of forage status and their perceived determinants. There is a need to conduct nutritional analysis of key forage species available in the different livelihood zones. Finally, there is a need to constantly monitor socio-political conditions that have potential of creating ‘artificial’ forage shortage in the sub-region.

Pastoral communities in East Africa have faced unprecedented variation in weather, desertification and degradation of forage resources in recent times, leading to large-scale losses of livestock and reducing both marketing and management options, which renders pastoralists dependent on food aid. The increased uncertainty due to drought, coupled with the breakdown of options to use traditional risk management strategies, has led to a need for new approaches for early warning to make proactive decisions before drought sets in. One such possibility is the development of new technologies capable of providing information on emerging forage conditions to assist in improving livestock movement and sales options of pastoralists. The Livestock Early Warning System project of the Global Livestock Collaborative Research Support Program led by Texas A&M University has developed an automated modeling package to assist these mobile dry-rangelands livestock keepers in East Africa to cope with shocks of climate and make informed decisions about current and future forage conditions and thereby guide their mobility and decision-making patterns. The approach makes use of modeling techniques, Geographic Information System (GIS) and information and communication technology (ICT) and takes real-time, satellite weather data to drive a biophysical model called PHYGROW to simulate daily forage conditions and near-term forecasts of these conditions. Using geo-statistics, these point-based model simulations are linked with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) satellite images to create maps of forage supply and its deviation from normal. This information is updated every ten days with situation reports and maps distributed via WorldSpace radios, email, internet, and newsletters in the region. This technology suite has been developed in collaboration with national government agencies in Ethiopia, Tanzania, Kenya, and Uganda and NGOs working in pastoral areas.

Piospheres in semi-arid areas are gradients of animal impacts around watering holes. Few studies have examined the impact dynamics of herbaceous and woody species composition and abundance in relation to piospheres in East Africa. In this study, we identified the trend in piosphere development, assessed piosphere use and change indicators, and identified herbaceous and woody plant structure in relation to piospheres in the Karamoja sub-region, Uganda. Results revealed that piosphere development has been reactionary to drought and/or insecurity events and increased rapidly in the last decade. A diversity of herbaceous and woody plants exists around the piospheres. Use and change indicators revealed high trampling and grazing intensity, high presence of erosion signs and low litter cover. Gradient distance had both positive and negative effects on trampling intensity, percent exposure and plant height, respectively. A negative and positive effect of gradient distance was also observed on different herbaceous and woody forage species leading to the identification of both increaser and decreaser species around the piospheres. Therefore, as concentrated use of the piospheres continues unabated, an outward ripple effect leading to loss and/or increase of undesirable herbaceous and woody species will be felt. This will have an impact on the composition and abundance dynamics of desirable forage species in the sub-region.

Group ranches (GRs) were established in Kenya in the 1960s and 1970s; their objectives included the increase of pastoral land productivity and the control of land degradation. Since their establishment, GRs have evolved and new trends have emerged in resource management with significant impact on socio-ecological systems (SESs). Little is known about these changes on the GRs in Laikipia County. The central thesis for this study was that GR-level-driven and/or collective action innovations are socio-ecologically more resilient compared to household/individual-level strategies. This study investigated emerging innovations, their drivers and perceived and felt impacts, using Il Motiok GR as a case study. Tools used included semi-structured interviews, key informant interviews, focus group discussions and second order cybernetics. Qualitative analysis using SPSS software was done. The results showed that emerging innovations could be divided into either household/individual- or community-level-driven processes. Some of the innovations in natural capital management included the trading of grazing rights, expansion of traditional enclosures, adoption of ‘new’ livestock species and/or breeds, and crop cultivation. Household-level-driven innovations were influenced by wealth status, age and level of education. Economic returns and to some extent the greater good influenced community-driven initiatives. Formal groupings such as self-help groups and business associations were replacing declining traditional social networks based on clans and age sets/groups. Climate change, development agencies, cultural and technological change and neighbourhood social learning are perceived as having inspired the innovations. Innovations that fragmented natural and social capital were inclined to limit socio-ecological resilience. Implementation of new interventions among communities must factor in the possibilities of transformation and/or emergence of new innovations beyond those initially conceptualised as implementation progresses. Supportive policies that recognise the increasing complexity of common property use are needed to address emerging ‘new’ land use changes. Furthermore, there is need to nurture emergent promising innovations and stop those considered detrimental to the sustainability of SESs.

Spatio-temporal dynamics of pastoral grazing resources influences the pastoral production system. Obtaining timely and reliable information on the status of these resources will support planning and early response to climatic variability. This study in Karamoja pastoral sub-region of Uganda identified herbaceous and woody forage species in different grazing land cover types, quantified forage in different grazing land covers, analyzed long-term land use/cover change (from 1986 to 2013) and determined the relationship between Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and herbaceous biomass. Results showed that the sub-region has over 30 grass species that provide forage. During the wet season, woodlands, grasslands and thickets and shrublands recorded a wet weight of 1,342.5 ± 104.5 kg/ha, 857.5 ± 29.4 kg/ha and 501 ± 43.9 kg/ha, respectively. In the dry season, 542.5 ± 57.6 kg/ha, 273 ± 6.4 kg/ha and 140 ± 9.2 kg/ha were realized in the woodlands, grasslands and thickets and shrublands, respectively. However, in the transitionary season, 276, 512.5 and 529.2 kg/ha were obtained in the woodlands, grasslands and thickets and shrublands accordingly. Similar trends were observed in dry matter biomass in the respective land cover type. Seasonality, land cover type and location accounted for the variations in the observed forage quantities. Analysis of land cover and land use change revealed a tenfold increase in croplands in the last 13 years. The expansion of crop cultivation is attributed to interventions by the Government of Uganda and development partners to promote food security in the sub-region. Heightened bushland encroachment was similarly observed in the last 13 years. The study also found a significant positive relationship between NDVI and herbaceous biomass, indicating that remote sensing offers reliable resource assessment and monitoring options for informing planning and interventions in semi-arid areas.