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3. Climate Drives the Meningitis Epidemics Onset in West Africa

Author

Sultan, Benjamin, Labadi, Karima, Guégan, Jean-François, and Janicot, Serge

Subjects
Air Movements, Infectious Diseases, Atmosphere, Africa, Seasons, Meningitis, Meningococcal, Communicable Diseases, Research Article, Disease Outbreaks
Abstract

Background Every year West African countries within the Sahelo-Sudanian band are afflicted with major meningococcal meningitis (MCM) disease outbreaks, which affect up to 200,000 people, mainly young children, in one of the world's poorest regions. The timing of the epidemic year, which starts in February and ends in late May, and the spatial distribution of disease cases throughout the “Meningitis Belt” strongly indicate a close linkage between the life cycle of the causative agent of MCM and climate variability. However, mechanisms responsible for the observed patterns are still not clearly identified. Methods and Findings By comparing the information on cases and deaths of MCM from World Health Organization weekly reports with atmospheric datasets, we quantified the relationship between the seasonal occurrence of MCM in Mali, a West African country, and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Regional atmospheric indexes based on surface wind speed show a clear link between population dynamics of the disease and climate: the onset of epidemics and the winter maximum defined by the atmospheric index share the same mean week (sixth week of the year; standard deviation, 2 wk) and are highly correlated. Conclusions This study is the first that provides a clear, quantitative demonstration of the connections that exist between MCM epidemics and regional climate variability in Africa. Moreover, this statistically robust explanation of the MCM dynamics enables the development of an Early Warning Index for meningitis epidemic onset in West Africa. The development of such an index will undoubtedly help nationwide and international public health institutions and policy makers to better control MCM disease within the so-called westward–eastward pan-African Meningitis Belt., An analysis of winds and yearly meningitis epidemics in West Africa shows a surprisingly close correlation that could help to predict disease outbreaks

Published
2005

4. Climate drives the meningitis onset in West Africa

Author

Sultan, Benjamin, Labadi, Karima, Guégan, Jean-François, Janicot, Serge, Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Pôle de recherche pour l'organisation et la diffusion de l'information géographique (PRODIG), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris-Sorbonne (UP4)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Génétique et évolution des maladies infectieuses (GEMI), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Montpellier 1 (UM1)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud]), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL)

Subjects
[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2005
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5. L'épidémie de méningite au Mali et la circulation atmosphérique en Afrique de l'Ouest

Author

Sultan, Benjamin, Labadi, Karima, Beltrando, G., Janicot, Serge, Laboratoire d'océanographie dynamique et de climatologie (LODYC), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]
Published
2004

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