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This study analyses the spatio‐temporal variability of heatwave characteristics and their association with large‐scale climate drivers across seven climatic sub‐regions in Vietnam, including the Northwest (R1), Northeast (R2), Red River Delta (R3), North Central (R4), South Central (R5), Central Highlands (R6) and the South (R7). The analysis is based on observed daily maximum temperatures from 102 meteorological stations, spanning the period 1980–2020. The obtained results reveal diverse heatwave patterns across the country. Amongst the seven climatic sub‐regions of Vietnam, the R3 and R4 sub‐regions experienced more frequent heatwaves and a higher number of heatwave days, but shorter durations. In contrast, other sub‐regions had fewer heatwave events and heatwave days but experienced longer‐lasting heatwaves. The intensity of heatwave events varies amongst sub‐regions, with the highest value in the R4 sub‐region, and the lowest in R7. Notably, the R1–R5 sub‐regions are affected by heatwaves over larger areas, compared to others. Additionally, the findings confirm that the lagged influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the primary climatic driver of heatwave characteristics in Vietnam. Generally, heatwaves tend to occur more frequently in the years following El Niño events than after La Niña events. This observation provides opportunities for developing a system of seasonal predictions of heatwaves in Vietnam. The impact of ENSO on the number of heatwave events and heatwave days is evident in five out of seven sub‐regions, with less impact in the R2 and R7 sub‐regions. However, it does not significantly affect heatwave intensity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monsoon precipitation variability over the Indo‐China Peninsula (ICP) has become more complicated affected by global warming. In this study, the modulation of Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) on the relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the rainy season onset over the ICP were investigated. The results showed that the ICP rainy season onset were predominantly correlated with winter sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the East Pacific Ocean, with late and early onsets following El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. During the warm and cold PDO phase, the correlations tended to be substantially strengthened and weakened, respectively. Further analysis indicates that PDO significantly influenced the effects of ENSO on the ICP rainy season onset by modulating SSTAs and low‐level wind fields. During the El Niño events, abnormal easterlies over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) and southern ICP suppressed water vapour transporting to the ICP, which may be related to the zonal SST anomaly gradient between the Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific Ocean. When the El Niño occurred during the warm PDO phase, the rainy season onsets were later. The anomalous easterlies became stronger corresponds to the increasing zonal sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) gradient between the Indian Ocean and the Northwest Pacific Ocean. There was no significant anomaly on the rainy season onset during the cold PDO phase. During the La Niña events, the abnormal westerlies in BOB accelerated water vapour transport, and the rainy season onset were earlier during the warm and cold PDO phase. The modulating effects of PDO on La Niña were less than those on El Niño. These results suggest that the predictability of rainy season onset over the ICP can be improved through PDO and thus help agricultural planning and water resources management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have adverse impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries, yet extreme MHWs in the western tropical Pacific Ocean remain largely unexplored. Here, we investigate the evolution and drivers of the two strongest subsurface MHWs in the western tropical Pacific Ocean on record, in 2008 (MHW-08) and 2010–11 (MHW-11). The two events have similar evolutions, as they were both initiated and developed locally in tropical regions during their onset phase and gradually dissipated with multiple cores during the decay phase. We examined the physical processes during the evolution of MHW-08 and MHW-11 and performed a heat budget analysis for the subsurface layer in each case. We find that the onset of both events were mainly controlled by convergence and vertical heat advection due to anomalous Ekman downwelling, while the decay of both events was mainly controlled by horizontal heat advection due to anomalous horizontal currents and withdrawal of anomalous convergence. The relationship between the subsurface MHWs and El Niño–Southern Oscillation is discussed. We suggest that the anomalous heat advections plus the La Niña–related background warming lead to the extreme subsurface MHW events. Our findings may have important implications for environmental change and marine life in the western tropical Pacific Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT The anomalous variability of extreme cases of the tropical tropopause provides insight into the stratosphere‐troposphere exchange process crucial for understanding climate change. The present study analyses the extreme variability of the tropopause and its thermal structure over the tropics using GPS radio occultation data over the period 2006–2019. The extremely cold and warm tropopauses and extremely high and low tropopauses are identified based on the cold point tropopause temperature and height, respectively, when their values exceed two standard deviations with respect to their climatological means. The analyses revealed frequent occurrence of extreme cases of tropopause over the Atlantic Ocean compared to the Western Pacific Ocean. Individually, extremely warm and low cases occur more frequently over the subtropics, while extremely cold and high cases occur frequently over the deep tropics. These extreme cases pose different thermal structures bounded within the extremely low and high tropopauses throughout the tropics. The height difference between the extremely high and low tropopause cases is wider over the Atlantic Ocean and adjoining areas compared to the western Pacific Ocean. The temperature difference between the extremely warm and cold tropopause cases is higher in the Atlantic, Central Pacific, and Indonesian regions compared to the American, Indian Ocean, and western Pacific Ocean regions. The relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases and extreme tropopause cases is also investigated which reveals a higher occurrence of extremely high tropopause cases during the El Niño phase while low tropopause cases during the La Niña phase. Our analysis also revealed the thermal patterns of the extreme cases characterising colder and sharper tropopause over the convective regions compared to subsidence regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Antarctic toothfish (Dissostichus mawsoni) in the Ross Sea region are believed to spawn predominantly in the northern parts of the Ross Gyre during the austral winter with fluctuations in their recruitment observed. This Lagrangian modelling study attempts to explain these fluctuations and shows how sea-ice drift impacts the buoyant eggs and the overall recruitment of juveniles reaching the Amundsen shelf break. Interannual variations in the Amundsen Sea Low, linked to tropical sea surface temperatures, cause modulations in the sea-ice drift and subsequent recruitment. When the Amundsen Sea Low is weaker, consistent with El Niño conditions, the northward sea-ice drift reduces, and more eggs remain within the Ross Gyre leading to a larger recruitment success. Conversely, recruitment success reduces during La Niña conditions. The sea-ice drift may explain about 80% of the interannual Antarctic toothfish recruitment variability over the period 1975–2016 and is of particular importance during the first year after spawning. These results enable future interannual changes in Antarctic toothfish recruitment success based on remote observations to be anticipated. Our findings suggest that ongoing climate change strengthening of the Amundsen Sea Low, will likely contribute to a long-term toothfish recruitment decline in the Ross Gyre region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on a compilation of widely available climate analysis products, we show evidence for a significant variation in the spatial pattern of the large-scale vertical zonal atmospheric circulation patterns across the equatorial Indo-Australasian domain of the Eastern Hemisphere during the major 2023–24 El Niño event. The region of large-scale subsidence and its associated teleconnection patterns that are usually centered across Indonesia (the "Maritime Continent") were displaced to the west over the equatorial Indian Ocean. In the record of El Niño events with readily available online dynamical tropospheric fields (one source from 1947 and the other from 1979), this has only been seen two other times, during the strong 1997–98 El Niño and the weaker 1977–78 event. These three events may well be consistent with internal variability, but at present, the reason for such occurrences has not been established. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the impact of multiyear La Niña events on social wasps in Northeastern Amazonia, particularly in French Guiana. The excessive rainfall during La Niña years led to a significant decline in social wasp populations, with the most common species, Polybia bistriata, serving as a biological indicator of global change. The study highlights the correlation between heavy rainfall, La Niña events, and the decline of social wasps, emphasizing the potential critical situation for tropical social wasps in the face of increasing extreme weather events due to global warming. [Extracted from the article]

This research introduces a novel index for the South Atlantic High Pressure (SAHP) system to enhance understanding of regional climate variability and change. Subtropical highs significantly influence regional climates, yet comprehensive indices to measure their behaviours are lacking. Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis data from 1940 to 2023, the proposed index estimates a weighted centroid of the area surrounding the maximum sea level pressure within a 3 hPa range. This method ensures robustness and flexibility in contiguous area estimation specific to subtropical high events. Results showed the index effectively reflects the position and intensity of the SAHP. The study reveals that latitudinal variability of the SAHP has a strong unimodal structure, whereas longitudinal variability exhibits a bimodal structure. Seasonal patterns of the index show noticeable changes, with winter (JJA) and spring (SON) months having relatively high index values compared to summer (DJF) and autumn (MAM) months, underscoring the intra‐annual variability of the SAHP index. During ENSO events, the mean centroid position of the SAHP shifts significantly, moving westwards and polewards during El Niño and showing greater stability during La Niña. The index, with minimal computation requirements and flexibility, can be applied across diverse datasets, aiding in the assessment of future subtropical high changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study mainly investigated the dynamic synoptic eddy (SE) feedback to interdecadal change in the impact of the winter Siberian high (SH) on subsequent ENSO development. It was found that a significant negative SH-ENSO correlation dominated since the mid-1980s (denoted as P2), which was extremely weak before the 1980s (denoted as P1). By applying a transformed vorticity budget analysis, focus was paid on the North Pacific where the air-sea responses linking the SH and ENSO development were closely associated with SE feedback. When the SH was anomalously enhanced, the Aleutian Low (AL) responded over the North Pacific. The dynamic SE feedback during P2 positively contributed to maintain the AL until early summer, induced the generation and intensification of an anomalous subtropical anticyclone, and thereby formed the negative North Pacific Oscillation phase. These air-sea responses favored the occurrence of Bjerknes feedback established around summer and finally grew into a La Niña event. During P1, the AL could hardly persist due to the rapid decay of dynamic SE feedback in spring, making the subsequent air-sea responses penniless. The distinct dynamic SE feedback was primarily because the intensity of spring SE activity was significantly weaker during P2 than during P1. By utilizing SE structure decomposition, it was found that the SE structure is more prone to being changed during P2, resulting in the generation of SE vorticity fluxes with a larger magnitude through multiplying basic SE velocity by anomalous SE vorticity and obtaining the SE forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using a new measure that relates tropical cyclone (TC)-induced sea surface cooling with the strength of TCs, interannual variations in potential impacts of the upper ocean stratification on TC-induced sea surface cooling associated with the evolution of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are investigated in the northwestern Pacific using an ocean reanalysis product, with a special focus on haline effects. It is found that the haline stratification could suppress the sea surface cooling by as much as 20% to the south of 20°N in the peak typhoon season (July-October), and this contribution is different between their developing years (September-October) and decaying years (July-August). More specifically, the haline effects may vary up to 25% (40%) during the decaying years of El Niño (La Niña). Due to anomalous haline effects, the region to the west of 160°E is susceptible to the sea surface cooling during the developing and decaying years of El Niño, while the cooling could be suppressed in this region during the decaying years of La Niña. Although the effects of haline stratification have been found less important than those of thermal stratification, potential impacts of the upper ocean salinity on TC-induced sea surface cooling associated with the ENSO have been quantitatively estimated for the first time. Since the main focus of this paper is to present the new measure and discuss potential impacts of the upper ocean salinity stratification, further verifications need to be conducted once more observational data is accumulated or through numerical simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

AbstractSevere thunderstorms cause substantial economic and human losses in the United States. Simultaneous high values of convective available potential energy (CAPE) and storm relative helicity (SRH) are favorable to severe weather, and both they and the composite variable PROD=CAPE×SRH can be used as indicators of severe thunderstorm activity. Their extremal spatial dependence exhibits temporal non-stationarity due to seasonality and large-scale atmospheric signals such as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In order to investigate this, we introduce a space-time model based on a max-stable, Brown–Resnick, field whose range depends on ENSO and on time through a tensor product spline. We also propose a max-stability test based on empirical likelihood and the bootstrap. The marginal and dependence parameters must be estimated separately owing to the complexity of the model, and we develop a bootstrap-based model selection criterion that accounts for the marginal uncertainty when choosing the dependence model. In the case study, the out-sample performance of our model is good. We find that extremes of PROD, CAPE and SRH are generally more localized in summer and, in some regions, less localized during El Niño and La Niña events, and give meteorological interpretations of these phenomena. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have caused devasting ecological and socioeconomic impacts worldwide. Understanding the connection of regional events to large‐scale climatic drivers is key for enhancing predictability and mitigating MHW impacts. Despite the reported connection between MHWs globally and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), establishing statistically significant links between different types of ENSO events and MHWs remains challenging due to the limited duration of observational data. Here, we use 10,000 years of simulations from a Linear Inverse Model (LIM) to address this issue. Our findings reveal distinct connections between MHWs and ENSO, with diverging influences from different flavors of El Niño and La Niña events. In addition, under long‐lasting El Niño conditions, the likelihood of MHWs increases by up to 12‐fold in the Indian and Pacific Oceans. This study highlights the global connections between ENSO diversity and variations in MHW events. Plain Language Summary: Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are periods of prolonged, extremely warm ocean temperatures that have caused widespread ecological and socioeconomic impacts worldwide. The predictability of these events can be improved if we can find connections between regional events and larger climatic drivers, such as El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Both the positive phase of ENSO, El Niño, and its negative phase, La Niña, have been linked to MHWs in various parts of the world. However, not all El Niño and La Niña events are the same, leading to uncertainty in the relationship between ENSO and MHWs. Due to the limited duration of the observational record, a major issue arises with the lack of examples of different types of El Niño and La Niña events in observations. To overcome this challenge, we utilized 10,000 years of simulated data from a near‐global linear inverse model to generate many more samples of possible global ocean temperature configurations. We find strong differences between regional MHWs and different types of El Niño and La Niña events. In some regions, the probability of MHWs is 12 times more likely under long‐lasting El Niño events. Key Points: Robust links between global marine heatwaves and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) diversity are established using 10,000 years of samples from a linear inverse modelMarine heatwave (MHW) intensity and frequency in the Northeast Pacific increase significantly during Central Pacific El Niño eventsMHW intensity and frequency are significantly enhanced in Western Australia during Central Pacific La Niña events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT This work studies the simultaneous and sequential occurrence of hot and dry months in the summer season in Argentina, north of 40°S, based on three different databases: meteorological stations, a gridded observational dataset and a reanalysis product. The influence of the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the occurrence of these compound events is specially analysed using a logistic regression model. Monthly maximum temperature and precipitation data are used for the period 1979–2022 in four sub‐regions of Argentina: Northwestern Argentina (NOA), Northeastern Argentina (NEA), Cuyo (central‐western Argentina) and the Pampas (central‐eastern Argentina). Simultaneous hot and dry months and hot months preceded by dry months are the most frequent compound events. The highest frequencies are found in the centre part of the study region and NEA for simultaneous compound events, and in NOA and the Pampas region for sequential ones. In general terms, all datasets show a good representation of the spatio‐temporal variability of hot and dry months. The insights of the influence of ENSO on compound events revealed that La Niña enhances the occurrences of hot and dry months throughout the study region, with the exception of NOA, where El Niño conditions promote the occurrence of these events. Based on logistic regression models, we successfully quantify the relationship between ENSO and hot and dry months and demonstrate that ENSO plays a significant role as a driver of compound hot and dry events in the central region, Cuyo, NEA and a portion of the Pampas. This research contributes to the understanding of compound events in Argentina and how they are influenced by major drivers of climate variability providing useful information for the development of a predictive system for such events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The boreal winter of 2022/23 was notable as a third consecutive winter in which La Niña had an influence on the European weather. The GloSea6 seasonal forecast system predicted a blocked circulation pattern in the North Atlantic in early winter (December), and then a transition through mid‐winter (January) into a more zonal pattern in late winter (February), consistent with the canonical La Niña teleconnection pattern seen previously. The seasonal forecast for the UK was an increased likelihood of near average temperatures, and drier‐ and calmer‐than‐average conditions. Both the predicted broad‐scale circulation patterns and UK winter mean weather conditions verified well against observations, and we show that seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) over the last 10 winters show similar skill to previously reported hindcasts. Throughout the winter, the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) was particularly active. On three occasions, it exhibited strong phases 6 and 7. There was also a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) that occurred on 16th February. This was followed by colder conditions and associated impacts similar to the canonical negative NAO response over the UK, although the main impact fell in March and so did not affect the winter (December–January–February) mean conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT Impacts of El Niño−Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the quasi‐biweekly oscillation over the western North Pacific (WNP‐QBWO) in boreal winter are investigated in the study. The WNP‐QBWO in boreal winter primarily propagates westward from the tropical western Pacific to WNP. During the La Niña winter, the QBWO over the WNP has stronger intensity and propagates westward at a faster speed, while it is weaker and propagates more slowly during the El Niño winter. The possible mechanisms may involve the ENSO‐related background moisture and zonal wind vertical shear changes that can significantly modulate the WNP‐QBWO's behaviours in boreal winter. A 2.5‐layer atmospheric model is applied in the study and confirms the results. It is further revealed that the moisture change is dominant in modulating the WNP‐QBWO's intensity, while both the moisture and vertical shear changes may together contribute to the zonally propagating speed of the WNP‐QBWO in boreal winter. These results can deepen our understanding of dynamic processes associated with the WNP‐QBWO in boreal winter and are conducive to the predictability study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Observations revealed notable discrepancies in the 2023/24 El Niño compared to earlier events, despite registering moderate Niño3.4 index magnitudes. Essential indicators such as the westerly wind burst, thermocline zonal tilting, and eastward propagation of oceanic Kelvin waves were conspicuously weak, indicating a weak air‐sea coupled in contrast to past occurrences, the 2023/24 El Niño coincided with unusually high North Atlantic Tripole and extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs). The elevated North Atlantic Tripole SST triggered a strong negative Pacific meridional mode and easterly anomalies in the equatorial western‐central Pacific. At the same time, the extratropical North Pacific SST induced a negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation‐like pattern. These anomalies potentially dampened SST‐wind coupling during the developmental stages of El Niño. The negative Pacific meridional mode distinguished the 2023/24 El Niño from previous events and substantially altered its local and remote influences. Plain Language Summary: The 2023/24 El Niño, while achieving a magnitude comparable to previous events, exhibited notably weaker westerly wind bursts, thermocline zonal tilting, and oceanic Kelvin wave eastward propagation typically associated with El Niño occurrences. This study delves into these distinctions and examines the underlying reasons for this deviation. In contrast to preceding events, the 2023/24 El Niño coincided with unusually high North Atlantic Tripole and Extratropical North Pacific sea surface temperature (SST). These elevated SSTs were partially influenced by the preceding triple‐dip La Niña in 2020–2022. Our analysis suggests that these heightened SSTs significantly contributed to the observed disparities in 2023/24 El Niño. Key Points: The Niño3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) in 2023/24 indicated a moderate El Niño. However, the westerly anomaly in the western Pacific was not evidentThe weak westerly in response to the Niño3.4 SST indicated a weak air‐sea coupling for the 2023/24 El NiñoThe North Atlantic Tripole and extratropical North Pacific extreme SSTs play a crucial role in modulating 2023/24 El Niño [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated variations in the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) behavior between two types of La Niña winters: mega and equatorial La Niñas. Results of this work show that in contrast to mega conditions, accompanied by more abundant intraseasonal column-integrated moisture anomalies over the planetary boundary layer, intensities of intraseasonal outgoing longwave radiation anomalies are stronger over the tropical western Pacific (WP) at MJO phases 5–6 under equatorial conditions. The occurrence of the moisture anomaly change averaged over the tropical WP is supported by a distinct moisture tendency difference. Moisture budget and multiscale interaction diagnoses underscore the pivotal effect of an area-averaged vertical gradient change in low-frequency background moisture in driving such tendency change. Considering notable MJO convection variations, the teleconnections associated with MJO phases 5–6 over East Asia (EA) were also explored, including warmer surface air temperature anomalies and stronger positive geopotential height anomalies at 200 hPa on the intraseasonal time scale under equatorial conditions. Results from a linear baroclinic model demonstrate that such teleconnection changes could be effectively explained by the linear response to the MJO's diabatic heating anomaly. Roles of mean state and MJO itself variations in the linear response change are also discussed. These findings provide novel insights into MJO activity and offer potential improvements for subseasonal forecasting in EA. Significance Statement: The relationship between El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and MJO has been extensively explored recently. However, variations in the MJO behavior and its climate effects under mega and equatorial La Niña winters have not been thoroughly investigated. In this work, we utilized reanalysis datasets and an idealized linear baroclinic model to address these questions. We observed more robust and abundant intraseasonal convection activity and planetary boundary layer–integrated moisture anomaly averaged over the tropical WP at MJO phases 5–6 under equatorial conditions than mega conditions, which is closely linked with the vertical gradient change in low-frequency background moisture. Additionally, MJO-related teleconnections also exhibit some changes. This work may provide a new perspective on understanding the relationship between the MJO and ENSO and offer potential improvements for the subseasonal forecast. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical glaciers in the central Andes are vital water resources and crucial climate indicators, currently undergoing rapid retreat. However, understanding their vulnerability to the combined effects of persistent warming, the El Niño and La Niña climate phenomena, and interannual fluctuations remains limited. Here, we automate the mapping of key mass balance parameters on the Quelccaya Ice Cap (QIC) in Peru, one of the largest tropical ice caps. Using Landsat's near-infrared (NIR) band, we analyze snow cover area (SCA) and total area (TA) and calculate the accumulation area ratio (AAR) and equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) over nearly 40 years (1985–2023). Between 1985 and 2022, the QIC lost ∼58 % and ∼37 % of its SCA and TA, respectively. We show that the QIC's reduction in SCA and rise in ELA are exacerbated by El Niño events, which are strongly correlated with the preceding wet season's Oceanic Niño Index (ONI). Further, expansion in the QIC's SCA is observed during all La Niña years, except during the 2021–2022 La Niña. Although this is a singular event, it could indicate a weakened ability for SCA recovery and an accelerated decline in the future, primarily driven by anthropogenic warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seasonal‐range predictability of summer climate in northwestern Europe is generally considered to be low. This is an increasing issue given the worsening impact of summer heatwaves, droughts and intense convective rainfall in a rapidly changing climate. In wintertime, predictive skill in the region is derived from a variety of sources, not least teleconnections with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Summer ENSO teleconnections, however, are often considered to be negligible. In this paper, we revisit the topic of summer teleconnections between ENSO and the North Atlantic‐European region. We build on previous work identifying upper tropospheric responses to tropical forcing, since dynamical teleconnections are most apparent at this level. Our results confirm that significantly increased geopotential heights are found stretching over the North‐Atlantic region and into western Europe when La Niña conditions are prevalent during summer. This pattern is part of the previously identified 'circumglobal' pattern of wider northern‐hemisphere height changes. We then look for these responses in a range of climate models used in operational seasonal prediction. While parts of the circumglobal pattern are weakly present, none of them produce the response seen over the North Atlantic, even when the effect of sampling on the observed teleconnection is accounted for. We additionally estimate the contribution of the previous (wintertime) phase of ENSO on the following summer. We find a significant delayed response, particularly in heights, to the earlier phase. The combination of the delayed and current responses gives height anomalies that are larger, on average, when ENSO changes phase from winter to summer. Finally, we show that a modest level of regional prediction skill from ENSO does exist. There is a contribution to skill in heights from the previous ENSO phase, but the equivalent contribution to the skill of zonal winds is smaller. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric methane concentrations rose rapidly over the past decade and surged in 2020-2022 but the causes have been unclear. We find from inverse analysis of GOSAT satellite observations that emissions from the wet tropics drove the 2010-2019 increase and the subsequent 2020-2022 surge, while emissions from northern mid-latitudes decreased. The 2020-2022 surge is principally contributed by emissions in Equatorial Asia (43%) and Africa (30%). Wetlands are the major drivers of the 2020-2022 emission increases in Africa and Equatorial Asia because of tropical inundation associated with La Niña conditions, consistent with trends in the GRACE terrestrial water storage data. In contrast, emissions from major anthropogenic emitters such as the United States, Russia, and China are relatively flat over 2010-2022. Concentrations of tropospheric OH (the main methane sink) show no long-term trend over 2010-2022 but a decrease over 2020-2022 that contributed to the methane surge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the asymmetry in the Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) response over India and its four homogeneous regions to two distinct types of temporal evolution in La Niña. We have shown this uneven response by analysing the large‐scale dynamics over tropical Indo‐Pacific region for the period 1951–2022. We have identified two types of La Niña events during monsoon season (June–September) based on whether they evolved from El Niño or La Niña from preceding boreal winter season (December–February). India receives significantly more (less) rainfall during La Niña years, when it was preceded by El Niño (La Niña) in the preceding winter. We further observed the spatial diversity of rainfall over India with a northeast–southwest dipole pattern. When La Niña years were preceded by El Niño, positive surface pressure anomaly over west‐north Pacific, low‐level westerlies and moisture transport favoured the rainfall over south peninsula and west‐central India. Whereas moisture divergence associated with anomalous lower‐tropospheric anticyclone over west‐north Pacific suppressed the rainfall over Indo‐Gangetic plains. However, when La Niña years were preceded by La Niña in winter, the absence of westerlies and weak moisture transport subdued the rainfall over south peninsula and west‐central India. At the same time, moisture convergence and a greater number of monsoon depressions favoured rainfall over north‐west India. This study also looked at how well eight Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) models predicted ISMR and SST for two types of La Niña with April initial conditions during the period 1993–2016. Models were able to capture the spatial pattern of SST anomalies over Indo‐Pacific Ocean, but all models could not capture the spatial pattern of ISMR. However, in terms of intensity, six out of eight models could predict more (less) ISMR when it was preceded by El Niño (La Niña), coinciding with the observed anomaly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic warming around the Barents and Kara Sea frequently coincides with the Eurasian cooling winters, which is referred to as the warm Arctic-cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. We here show that the WACE pattern during late winter (January-March) is closely associated with the tropical El Niño-Southern Oscillation but with a striking asymmetric linkage. In general, La Niña events are accompanied with an anomalous high-pressure system over Eurasia, facilitating the formation of the positive WACE pattern. However, a weak connection is detected between the El Niño and WACE pattern. This asymmetric influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on Eurasian circulation and surface air temperature can be attributed to the nonlinearity in its modulation on planetary waves and the spatial structure of stratospheric polar vortex during the warm and cold phases. During La Niña winters, the height anomalies over Eurasia tend to prevail in the troposphere due to an enhancement in the wave-1 planetary wave in the middle and low layers, in contrast to El Niño years with height anomalies more confined to the upper stratosphere. The identified linkage between La Niña and the WACE pattern provides a potential predictability source of cold winters over Eurasia on seasonal-to-interannual timescales. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Skill in predicting monthly mean daily maximum air temperature (MonTmax) over India during the pre-monsoon months (March to May) at lead times of 1–3 months by the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change Version 2 (SINTEX-F2) model was evaluated. Analysis revealed that MonTmax in April over northwest and south India could be skillfully predicted by the model with a two-month lead time. The model predictions could capture most of the extreme MonTmax events over the two regions. Analysis of the extreme events in April in La Niña and El Niño years shows that the anomalous Matsuno-Gill atmospheric response to the precipitation anomalies over the northwest Pacific plays a crucial role in enhancing MonTmax anomalies over India. In the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral years and in some ENSO years with sparse precipitation anomalies over the northwest and central Pacific, the atmospheric waves from higher latitudes play a role in enhancing MonTmax anomalies over northwest India. The SINTEX-F2 model could capture the processes realistically with minimal bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The New Madrid Seismic Zone (NMSZ) in the central United States is a seismically active intraplate region composed of two fault segments: the Reelfoot and Cottonwood Grove fault segments. It has witnessed several major earthquakes, including a devastating 1811–1812 earthquake sequence of three ~M7 events. Nearly 200 years later, earthquakes still continue today in this complex seismic zone. This seismic zone is located in a domain with higher hydrological load than surrounding regions, which may play a crucial role in seismicity modulation. However, the hydrological unloading or loading-induced seismicity modulation and the underlying earthquake dynamics on this stable plate interior remain equivocal. Our study demonstrates that increased climate variability and drought-induced hydrological unloading can be potential drivers for the crustal stress change in the upper Mississippi embayment and seismicity modulation in the NMSZ. The seismicity rate associated with the Reelfoot fault segment shows ~60% increase during drought-induced prolonged drier periods, linked to La Niña cycles, than during the relatively wetter periods. However, such a feature is lacking for the seismicity associated with the Cottonwood Grove fault segment. We argue that the near-lithostatic pore pressure condition explicitly on the Reelfoot fault segment leads to an increase in the amplitude of the velocity perturbation, making this fault segment more susceptible to seismicity modulation on a multi-annual or annual time scale by the resonance destabilization process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the primary interannual signal of variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation has a considerable impact on tropical cyclone (TC) activity over the western North Pacific (WNP). Both 2018 and 2021 were La Niña decay years, but TC activity over the WNP during the two summers (June–August) showed notable differences. In 2018, summer TC activity was unusually high with a total of 18 TCs, and the region of TC genesis was mainly in the central and eastern WNP. In contrast, only 9 TCs were generated in summer 2021, and the region of TC genesis was primarily in the western WNP. By comparing the characteristics of the large-scale environmental conditions over the regions of TC genesis, the thermal factors of the tropical oceans, and the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), this study revealed the possible causes for the marked differences in TC genesis over the WNP during the two summers, which both had a similar background of La Niña decay. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode (IOBM) transitioned of a cold anomaly in the winter of 2017/2018 and persisted until summer 2018. At the same time, the Pacific Meridional Mode (PMM) maintained a positive phase, leading to eastward and northward displacement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in summer, and eastward extension of the tropical monsoon trough, which presented conditions conducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Moreover, the days when the MJO stagnated in phases 5 and 6 in the summer of 2018 increased by approximately 150% relative to climatological state, providing dynamic conditions favorable for TC formation. In 2021, the IOBM quickly turned to a warm anomaly in March and persisted until summer, whereas the PMM became a negative phase in January and remained so until summer. At the same time, the MJO stagnated in phases 2 and 3 for up to 47 days, with the center of convection located over the western Maritime Continent, producing conditions unconducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Thus, despite being under a similar background of La Niña decaying year, the distinct evolutions of the IOBM, PMM, and MJO in spring and summer of 2018 and 2021 were the main causes of the notable differences in TC activity over the WNP during these two summers, and the anomalies in IOBM and MJO contributed more significantly than those of the PMM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pacific meridional mode (PMM) is one of the dominant coupled modes in the northeastern tropical Pacific (NETP), characterized by strip-like sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies spanning from Baja California to the central equatorial Pacific. While the majority of the El Niño events follow a positive PMM, only a few La Niña events are preceded by a negative PMM. Such an asymmetric activity of PMM before the onset of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) was previously attributed to the inherent nonlinear response of the wind–evaporation–SST (WES) feedback to trade winds in the NETP. Through data analysis and coupled model experiments, we pointed out that PMM is in fact a highly symmetric phenomenon, and the asymmetry of PMM before the ENSO onset thus must be associated with ENSO. On the one hand, the nonlinear response of deep convection over the equator to symmetric ENSO forcing in the central equatorial Pacific permits a stronger Pacific–North America (PNA) pattern in El Niño years than in La Niña years. On the other hand, since the majority of La Niña events are preceded by a sharp decay of an El Niño, the warm equatorial SST anomalies associated with the preceding El Niño provide another source to trigger PNA before the La Niña onset. The two mechanisms modulate the trade winds and heat fluxes in NETP more heavily before the La Niña onset than the El Niño onset and equally contribute to PMM asymmetry before the ENSO onset. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The meteorology of cutoff lows over South Africa is characterized by statistical analysis of daily field data in the period 1970–2023. An index is formulated by subtracting 500 hPa geopotential height in the mid-latitudes from the subtropics. Cutoff lows (COL) are identified by positive values, mostly in autumn and spring. Statistics indicate that climate forcing is seasonal: La Nina/El Nino favors COL in March–May/September–November. Hemispheric regressions reveal anomalous highs across the southern mid-latitudes when COL are frequent over South Africa. A 14-case composite was formed from the most intense daily COL events in autumn and spring. The composite shows a NW- tilted Rossby wave and jet stream loop around the COL. Maritime easterlies induce a warm east—cool west SST pattern, but composite moist inflows are shallow, so stormy weather hugs the coastal plains. Overturning circulations meet in an upper-level "saddle" over South Africa. 500 hPa sinking motions to the Southwest are of similar strength to rising motions to the Northeast. A COL case study exhibited hourly rain rates >10 mm at Port Alfred 18–20 October 2012 fed by tropical inflow. New insights emerged from this study via composite height sections over South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global-mean surface temperature rapidly increased 0.29 ± 0.04 K from 2022 to 2023. Such a large interannual global warming spike is not unprecedented in the observational record, with a previous instance occurring in 1976–1977. However, why such large global warming spikes occur is unknown, and the rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could have been externally driven. Here we show that climate models that are subject only to internal variability can generate such spikes, but they are an uncommon occurrence (p = 1.6 % ± 0.1 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño in the simulations, as occurred in nature in 1976–1977 and 2022–2023, such spikes become much more common (p = 10.3 % ± 0.4 %). Furthermore, we find that nearly all simulated spikes (p = 88.5 % ± 0.3 %) are associated with El Niño occurring that year. Thus, our results underscore the importance of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in driving the occurrence of global warming spikes such as the one in 2023, without needing to invoke anthropogenic forcing, such as changes in atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases or aerosols, as an explanation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A mass coral bleaching event occurred in the summer of 2022 in subtropical Hong Kong, driven by two marine heatwaves (MHWs) with high intensities of 1.56 and 0.86 °C above a mean climate condition, both MHWs 7 days with a short gap of 4 days during the strong La Niña year. A transect survey was conducted at nine study sites in three regions, which revealed widespread coral bleaching with bleached coral cover ranging from 2.4 to 70.3%. In situ environmental data revealed the presence of a thermocline and halocline. Local conditions, including depth and wave exposure, significantly influenced the bleaching response. Shallow-water (2–4 m) corals were primarily affected, particularly in sheltered and moderately sheltered sites that exhibited higher levels of bleached coral cover (42.97 ± 15.4% and 44.93 ± 29.4%, respectively) compared to the exposed sites (31.8 ± 5.2%). Bleaching in deep waters (4–6 m) was minimal, with only a few colonies of Goniopora at two of the three sheltered sites exhibiting bleaching (1.7 ± 1.5%). Heat stress resistance differed between coral genera. Recovery rate for four common coral genera is low for Acropora tumida. Additionally, a minor hypoxia event was found to cause mortality of non-coral benthos at a sheltered site (Sharp Island). These findings highlight the alarming impact of extreme heatwaves on subtropical coral communities and underscore the importance of monitoring coral bleaching. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) sea surface temperature (SST) is well‐documented in boreal spring, yet it manifests greater complexity in winter. Distinct from El Niño, La Niña has a statistically significant impact on winter NTA SST, which is primarily contributed by the re‐occurring (i.e., second and third years of multi‐year) La Niña events. Despite similar atmospheric forcing, prominent SST anomalies are observed in the NTA during the re‐occurring La Niña winters but not in the first‐year La Niña winters, mainly due to different initial states associated with previous tropical Pacific forcing. Targeted pacemaker experiments well reproduce the robust impacts of re‐occurring La Niña events on the wintertime NTA SST, highlighting the crucial impact of ENSO cycle complexity in its inter‐basin linkages. Plain Language Summary: The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influences the sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA), particularly as ENSO events decay during boreal spring. However, during winter when ENSO reaches its peak, the NTA SST anomalies exhibit strong uncertainty. While no marked SST anomalies are observed in the NTA during El Niño winters, prominent SST anomalies can often be found in the NTA during La Niña winters. The significant La Niña‐related SST anomalies in the NTA are primarily contributed by the second and third years of multi‐year La Niña events, rather than the first‐year La Niña events. The SST difference between the first‐year and re‐occurring La Niña winters can be attributed to the SST initial state in the NTA, which is related to the preceding forcing from the tropical Pacific. By incorporating this initial state, we can more accurately reconstruct the NTA SST anomalies during La Niña winters. Targeted pacemaker experiments corroborate the significant role of re‐occurring La Niña events in influencing wintertime NTA SST. Key Points: La Niña usually has stronger impacts on winter NTA SST than El Niño, primarily contributed by re‐occurring La Niña eventsDifferent NTA SST anomalies during the first‐year and re‐occurring La Niña can be well understood by considering the NTA initial stateTargeted pacemaker experiments confirm the important effect of re‐occurring La Niña on the NTA SST [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Atmospheric variability associated with the winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), preceding El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events by about 1 year, is driven mainly by the tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies but may also affect the subsequent ENSO. To isolate the latter, we conduct an idealized hindcast experiment using a climate model MIROC6, in which the NPO‐related surface heat flux and wind stress anomalies are overridden over the North Pacific. The ENSO evolution can be overall reproduced without the NPO forcing, confirming the predominant intrinsic predictability arising from the tropical coupled dynamics. However, the extratropical atmospheric forcing associated with the NPO, when it reaches three standard deviations, can enhance the ENSO development by about 29.6%, contrasting with limited effects of the moderate NPO forcing. La Niña events exhibit much less sensitivity to the NPO forcing compared to El Niño events, possibly due to asymmetric patterns of the simulated NPO. Plain Language Summary: The winter North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), manifesting as a meridional dipole structure in sea level pressure over the North Pacific, is suggested to play a role in the subsequent El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) development. Recent studies demonstrate that the preceding winter NPO signal mainly originates from the tropical Pacific SST forcing, making it challenging to isolate its specific impact on ENSO. In this study, we design a series of "overriding" experiments to decouple the tropical and extratropical Pacific processes based on the MIROC6 model. It is found that the ENSO evolution can be reproduced when excluding the NPO forcing, suggesting that the ENSO events is primarily driven by internal dynamics within the tropics. While the moderate NPO forcing has minor effects on the ENSO events, the exceptionally strong NPO forcing can further amplify the ENSO development. This study underscores that while NPO‐related extratropical variabilities do affect ENSO, their impact, especially under moderate conditions, should not overshadow the intrinsic predictability from the tropics. Key Points: The El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) development is primarily driven by internal dynamics within tropicsThe NPO forcing of the extreme rather than moderate amplitude can significantly amplify the ENSO developmentDevelopment of El Niño events are more sensitive to the NPO forcing compared to La Niña events [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interannual variation of the South China Sea (SCS) summer monsoon onset (SMO) may bring extreme weather and climate disasters in East Asia. However, its skillful forecast still remains challenging. This study investigates the intraseasonal ocean‐atmosphere interaction that affects the SCSSMO through diagnostic analysis and numerical experiments. It reveals that the cold sea surface temperature in the Southern SCS during winter (referred as cold tongue, CT) is the key pathway controlling the propagation of the 30–60 days intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) convective system from the Bay of Bengal (BOB) to the SCS. The CT variations affect the interannual variation of the SCSSMO. Specifically, the strong (weak) CT after the peak of La Niña (El Niño) years suppresses (enhances) the propagating ISO from the BOB to the SCS, resulting in a delayed (advanced) SCSSMO. This finding offers the new scientific insights for improving the forecasting of the SCSSMO. Plain Language Summary: The occurrence of a strong cold tongue (CT) in winter, commonly detected in the southern South China Sea (SCS) during La Niña decay years, plays a significant role in delaying the SCS summer monsoon onset (SCSSMO). It adversely affects the northeastward progression of the 30‐60‐day convective Intraseasonal Oscillation (ISO) from the equatorial Indian Ocean to the southern SCS. This interference leads to the delayed onset of the SCSSMO. It highlights the crucial influence of the CT sea surface temperatures (SST) on the linkage between Bay of Bengal and SCS at the intraseasonal scale, thus significantly impacting the timing of the SCSSMO. Key Points: The winter cold tongue in South China Sea (SCS) is a crucial oceanic precursor for the interannual variation of the SCS summer monsoon onset (SCSSMO)Strong cold tongue in the SCS can suppress the propagation of the 30‐60‐day intraseasonal oscillation into the SCSStrong SCS cold tongue during La Niña years tends to delay the SCSSMO [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-year La Niña events cause prolonged climate disruptions worldwide, but a systematic understanding of the underlying mechanisms is not yet established. Here we show using observations and models from the sixth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project that a greater frequency of consecutive La Niña events is tied to the upper equatorial Pacific Ocean when it favors more rapid heat discharge. The propensity for heat discharge is underscored by negative skewness in upper-ocean heat content, underpinned by southward tropical Pacific wind shift during austral summer. Models with stronger westerly anomalies south of the equator simulate steeper east-to-west upward tilt of the thermocline that is favorable for a greater discharge rate. This highlights the crucial role of the southward wind shift in the nonlinear system of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. The large inter-model spread in multi-year La Niña processes underscores the need in constraining models for reliable climate prediction and projection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming, driven by human activities since the Industrial Revolution, has significantly elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, leading to higher global temperatures and a rise in extreme weather events. The ocean, as a major carbon sink, has absorbed about 30% of human-induced carbon emissions, helping mitigate global warming's impacts. This study examines the spatiotemporal distribution of air-sea CO2 flux in the Northwest Pacific from 1982 to 2021 and its response to El Niño-Southern Oscillation, using Empirical Orthogonal Function and composite analysis. The seasonal patterns of air-sea CO2 flux and the influence of environmental factors were further evaluated. The results show that air-sea CO2 flux in the Northwest Pacific exhibits clear seasonal fluctuations. In winter, high-latitude areas act as significant carbon sources. Strong winds deepen the mixed layer, promoting CO2 release from the ocean into the atmosphere. In contrast, in summer, longer daylight hours, rising SST, and melting sea ice lead to upwelling, which brings nutrients to the surface and stimulates phytoplankton growth. This process turns the region into a carbon sink as phytoplankton growth, driven by intense sunlight, enhances the ocean's CO2 absorption. The mid-latitude region consistently acts as a carbon sink yearround. During El Niño events, more negative air-sea CO2 flux anomalies appear in the eastern Northwest Pacific, enhancing carbon uptake. La Niña events have the opposite effect in the eastern regions. These findings highlight the Northwest Pacific's critical role in modulating regional and global carbon cycles under varying climatic conditions. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for improving predictions of future climate impacts and for developing effective strategies to mitigate global warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Indonesian Throughflow (ITF) is significantly modulated by Indo-Pacific climate forcing, especially the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). However, when ENSO and IOD occur concurrently, they tend to play different roles in the ITF volume transport. By employing an improved Constructed Circulation Analogue (CCA) method, the relative contributions of these climate events to the ITF inflow and outflow transport in the upper and lower layers were quantified. The results indicate that during co-occurring El Niño and positive IOD events, ENSO is the dominant influence, with ratio values of 5.5:1 (3.5:1) in the upper layer and 1.7:1 (1.6:1) in the lower layer of the inflow (outflow). Conversely, during co-occurring La Niña and negative IOD events, the IOD predominates, with ratio values of 1:6 (1:6.5) in the upper layer and 1:4 (1:3) in the lower layer of the inflow (outflow). The mechanisms underlying these variations in the upper and lower layers can be explained by the differences in sea level anomaly (SLA) and wave propagation, respectively. This study provides a new insight into distinct roles of climate forcing on the ITF volume transport during the simultaneous occurrence of multiple climate modes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The impact of the Madden‐Julian oscillation (MJO) on the intraseasonal PNA (ISPNA) was investigated and was found to be modulated by the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which reasonably explains the skewness of the ISPNA during El Niño and La Niña winters. It was shown that the intensity and periodicity of the ISPNA was much stronger and slightly longer in La Niña winters than in the El Niño winters. The phase‐locked association between the ISPNA and MJO indicate that this skewness was controlled by the MJO. The northward Rossby wave activities derived from the tropics associated with the MJO to the subtropical Pacific sector of the ISPNA clarified that the stronger intensity of the MJO convection in the western Pacific during the La Niña winters, as well as the slower eastward propagation of the MJO, led to the asymmetric intensity and period of the ISPNA in the two ENSO phases. Plain Language Summary: While prior studies have revealed that the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can impact global climate, how ENSO affects the intraseasonal variability of the Pacific‐North American pattern (ISPNA) remains unclear. It was found that the ISPNA was skewed toward a higher intensity and a longer period in the La Niña winters than in the El Niño winters after removing the interfere of winter‐mean PNA. This is quite different from the conventional understanding that the PNA is often stronger during El Niño winters than during La Niña winters because of the asymmetric heating effort of the ENSO. The phase‐locked association between the ISPNA and the Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) indicate that this skewness was controlled by the MJO. The northward Rossby wave activities derived from the tropics to the subtropical Pacific sector of the ISPNA clarified the cause‐and‐effect relationship between the ISPNA and the MJO. The stronger intensity of the MJO convection in the tropical Western Pacific to oceans east of Australia during the La Niña winters, as well as the slower eastward propagation of the MJO, led to the skewness of the stronger intensity and longer period of the ISPNA in the La Niña winters than in the El Niño winters. Key Points: The intraseasonal PNA (ISPNA) was skewed toward a higher intensity and a longer period in the La Niña winters than in the El Niño wintersThe Madden‐Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the ISPNA were found to have a stable phase‐locked relationshipThe differences in the intensity and propagation of the MJO between La Niña and El Niño winters dominantly led to the skewed ISPNA [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As global warming intensifies, the coupling relationship between negative Indian Ocean Dipole (nIOD) and La Niña has substantially changed. However, the characteristics and mechanisms of these changes are not yet fully understood. Here, we find that the impact of La Niña on nIOD has considerably weakened since 1999, with the frequency of nIOD occurrences during La Niña years plummeting to a mere one‐third of the pre‐1999 levels. This is primarily attributed to the early onset of Indian summer monsoon and the decrease in La Niña intensity, while the effect of variations in Bjerknes feedback is relatively minor. Model simulations suggest that the influence of La Niña on nIOD will continue to weaken under future global warming through similar mechanisms as in the observations, increasing the complexity of air‐sea coupling in the Indian Ocean. Plain Language Summary: The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (nIOD) has significant impacts on both local and global climate change. La Niña is a major trigger for nIOD. However, as the globe warms up, the connection between nIOD and La Niña has changed a lot. This study analyze observation and reanalysis data from the 1950s onwards to see how nIOD and La Niña are linked. We find that La Niña has had less impact on nIOD since 1999. This is because the summer monsoon starts earlier, causing changes in wind patterns over the Indian Ocean. La Niña normally brings westerly wind anomalies in the Indian Ocean, but these winds are weakened because of the early monsoon. This makes it harder for nIOD to form. The feedback loop known as the Bjerknes feedback doesn't play a big role in maintaining nIOD. Furthermore, the reduction in La Niña intensity also contribute to weakening the relationship between La Niña and nIOD. Models predict that La Niña's impact on nIOD will continue to weaken under future global warming, increasing the complexity of air‐sea coupling in the Indian Ocean and leading to more challenges in forecasting. Key Points: The relationship between La Niña and negative Indian Ocean Dipole has weakened significantly in this centuryThe spring‐summer easterly anomaly induced by the premature summer monsoon weakens the La Niña‐induced westerly anomalyThe impact of La Niña on negative Indian Ocean Dipole will continue to weaken under future global warming [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper demonstrates the effectiveness and superiority of Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) in projecting non-stationary hydrological data. The study focuses on daily Sea Surface Temperature (SST) sequences in the Niño 3.4 region and uses EMD to forecast the probability of El Niño events. Applying the Mann–Kendall test at the 5% significance level reveals a significant increasing trend in SST changes in this region, particularly noticeable after 1980. This trend is associated with the occurrence of El Niño and La Niña events, which have a recurrence interval of approximately 8.4 years and persist for over a year. The modified Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) proposed in this study demonstrates high forecast accuracy, with 97.56% accuracy for El Niño and 89.80% for La Niña events. Additionally, the EMD of SST data results in 13 Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) and a residual component. The oscillation period increases with each IMF level, with IMF7 exhibiting the largest amplitude, fluctuating between ±1 °C. The residual component shows a significant upward trend, with an average annual increase of 0.0107 °C. These findings reveal that the EMD-based data generation method overcomes the limitations of traditional hydrological models in managing non-stationary sequences, representing a notable advancement in data-driven hydrological time series modeling. Practically, the EMD-based 5-year moving process can generate daily sea temperature sequences for the coming year in this region, offering valuable insights for assessing El Niño probabilities and facilitating annual updates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal oceans, traditionally seen as a conduit for transporting atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)-derived anthropogenic carbon (CANT) to open oceans, exhibit complex carbon exchanges at their interface. South China Sea (SCS) exemplifies this complexity, where interactions with the Pacific, particularly through Kuroshio intrusion, challenge the understanding of CANT source and variability in a coastal ocean. Contrary to prevailing paradigm expectations, our high-resolution, long-term data reveal that CANT in the SCS primarily originates from Pacific water injection across the Luzon Strait rather than atmospheric CO2 invasion. Over the past two decades, the SCS has experienced increasing CANT levels, with notable interannual fluctuations driven by El Niño and La Niña events influencing Kuroshio intrusion, generating anomalously high and low CANT inventories, respectively. This highlights an overlooked CANT transport pathway from open to coastal oceans, responsible for cumulative ocean acidification that has already affected coral reefs enriched in the SCS located west of the Coral Triangle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While deep learning models have shown promising capabilities in ENSO prediction, their inherent black-box nature often leads to a lack of physical consistency and interpretability. Here, we introduce ENSO-PhyNet, a Transformer-based model for ENSO prediction, which incorporates heat budget dynamical processes through self-attention computations. The model predicts sea surface temperature (SST) in the equatorial Pacific and achieves skillful predictions of the Niño 3.4 index with a lead time of up to 22 months. The self-attention maps reveal how the model makes predictions by focusing on specific processes in certain regions. Case analyses of recent El Niño and La Niña events underscore the impact of thermocline feedback and zonal advection feedback on the warming of the 2015 event, as well as the crucial role of anomalous easterlies in the emergence of the second-year La Niña in 2021. These findings demonstrate the model's interpretability and its ability to identify signals that are physically consistent with the development of ENSO events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, climate events such as Drought, El Niño, and La Niña have become increasingly frequent and more intense. Oceanographic monitoring was used to collect hydrological data in the middle and lower sectors of the Caeté estuary in different years. Negative rainfall anomalies of up to 45% were recorded during periods marked by drought and El Niño events, which make the water in the Caeté estuary more saline and alkaline. During these events, the retention of dissolved inorganic nutrients in the middle sector appears to support increased eutrophication and more productive waters, whereas moderate eutrophication and lower productivity were observed in the lower sector. During La Niña events, by contrast, positive rainfall anomalies may reach 60%, resulting in more oxygenated water in the estuary. In addition, the lower sector tends to be more eutrophic during periods of high rainfall and freshwater discharge, as observed in this study during a La Niña event. The paucity of data on the effects of extreme climate events in Amazonian environments means that the findings of the present study may provide a useful model for the assessment of the effects of these events on other natural environments in the Amazon region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper assessed the phytoplankton structure and its relationship with the physical environment in the coastal region off Mazatlán, Mexico, in two seasons of 2022, a year in which a strong La Niña event took place: (1) the warmer (August) and (2) the transitional period to the cold phase (November), based on hydrographic data and samples collected in two systematic scientific expeditions. The results showed clear differences between both seasons. Regarding total abundance, August reached 125,200 cells L−1, while November amounted to 219,900 cells L−1. Regarding species composition, the diatoms Cylindrotheca closterium and Planktoniella sol were dominant in August, while Thalassionema nitzschioides and Tetramphora decussata dominated the assemblages in November. The dinoflagellate Protoperidinium punctulatum was dominant in both seasons. However, very marked differences in its abundance are reported. The differences observed in the species richness and abundance could be attributed to the physical configuration of the water column, particularly the surface temperature, which showed clear changes between both seasons. The results presented here confirmed the high phytoplankton richness (some of them with the potential to generate harmful algal blooms), abundance, and diversity values of the region, suggesting a strong relationship with the physical environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the dust aerosol optical depth (DAOD) variability over the Arabian Peninsula (AP) in the spring season, a region profoundly affected by dust activity due to its desert terrain. Employing the MERRA-2 DAOD reanalysis dataset for the period 1981–2022, a significant trend in DAOD is noted in the spring season compared to the other seasons. The leading Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) explains 67% of the total DAOD variance during the spring season, particularly over the central and northeastern parts of AP. The analysis reveals the strengthening of upper-level divergence over the western Pacific, favoring mid-tropospheric positive geopotential height anomalies over the AP, leading to warm and drier surface conditions and increased DAOD. A statistically significant negative relationship (correlation = −0.32, at 95% confidence level) is noted between DAOD over AP and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), suggesting that La Niña conditions may favor higher dust concentrations over the AP region and vice versa during El Niño phase. The high (low) DAOD over the region corresponds to mid-tropospheric positive (negative) geopotential height anomalies through strengthening (weakening) of the upper-level divergence (convergence) over the western Pacific during the La Niña (El Niño) phase. This study shows that ENSO could be a possible precursor to predicting dust variability on a seasonal time scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taiwan Bank (TB) is located in the southern Taiwan Strait (TS). The uplifted continental slope and bottom currents in this area result in the formation of upwelling areas, which serve as crucial fishing grounds. Climate-induced fluctuations in fish populations occur in the TS. However, how predation and competition affect the interspecies relationships in the TB ecosystem warrants clarification. In this study, we collected high-grid-resolution data on fishery activity (2013–2019) and constructed ecosystem models using Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE). Three mass-balanced models for determining the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the TB ecosystem were constructed using EwE. A range of groups, including representative pelagic, benthic, and reef species, were collected for analyzing the relationship between migratory and sedentary species in terms of ecosystem structure variation due to climate change. The results demonstrated that the total system throughput (TST) was 10,556–11,122 t km−2 year−1, with an average transfer efficiency of 12.26%. According to the keystoneness index, calculated through mixed trophic impact analysis, Polydactylus sextarius and Scomber japonicus were the key species with top–down control and relatively high impact on the ecosystem in normal years. The keystone species also shifted to the predator fish Thunnus albacares and Katsuwonus pelamis during El Niño and La Niña events, respectively. Moreover, total biomass, TST, consumption, and respiration were noted to increase during ENSO events. However, during La Niña events, the diversity and connectance indexes were relatively low but pelagic species' biomass was relatively high, whereas the biomass of most benthic and reef species was relatively high during El Niño events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A combination of life history traits and environmental conditions has been highlighted as the main drivers of avian breeding success. While drivers of breeding success are well known in some species, especially birds in northern, temperate regions; species in other parts of the world have received relatively little attention. In this study, we used a long‐term dataset on breeding success of tropical plovers from south‐west Madagascar to investigate whether nest survival changed over time and whether the drivers of nest survival were similar for multiple species breeding in the same arid habitat. In the 12‐year period of 2009–2020, we monitored 2077 nests for three species with different breeding strategies: 1185 nests of Kittlitz's plovers (Anarhynchus pecuarius) with a flexible breeding strategy and uniparental care; and 565 nests of white‐fronted plovers (A. marginatus) and 327 nests of Madagascar plovers (A. thoracicus) which both have biparental care. We found that nest survival was associated with a combination of clutch‐size, age of nest and year among the three plover species. In addition, annual variation in climatic conditions associated with El Niño/La Niña events were included in the most supported survival models for Kittlitz's and white‐fronted plovers, but the effects were not significant. Overall estimates of daily nest survival were similar for all three species: Kittlitz's plover: 0.950 ± 0.002 SE, Madagascar plover: 0.919 ± 0.007 SE, and white‐fronted plover: 0.862 ± 0.047 SE. Estimates of nest success for the breeding season, based on increases in daily nest survival with the clutch age during the incubation periods (26 days for Kittlitz's plovers and 29 days for Madagascar and white‐fronted plovers), were relatively low: Kittlitz's plover: 0.161 ± 0.056 SE, Madagascar plover: 0.287 ± 0.022 SE, and white‐fronted plover: 0.228 ± 0.019 SE. All three species had a combination of factors affecting nest survival, both environmental and life history traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability of the Surface Air Temperature (SAT) over the Western South Asia (WSA) region leads to frequent heatwaves during the early summer (May-June) season. The present study uses the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast's fifth-generation seasonal prediction system, SEAS5, from 1981 to 2022 based on April initial conditions (1-month lead) to assess the SAT predictability during early summer season. The goal is to evaluate the SEAS5's ability to predict the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related interannual variability and predictability of the SAT over WSA, which is mediated through upper-level (200-hPa) geopotential height anomalies. This teleconnection leads to anomalously warm surface conditions over the region during the negative ENSO phase, as observed in the reanalysis and SEAS5. We evaluate SEAS5 prediction skill against two observations and three reanalyses datasets. The SEAS5 SAT prediction skill is higher with high spatial resolution observations and reanalysis datasets compared to the ones with low-resolution. Overall, SEAS5 shows reasonable skill in predicting SAT and its variability over the WSA region. Moreover, the predictability of SAT during La Niña is comparable to El Niño years over the WSA region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study uses reanalysis data to investigate how the East Asian cold surges are linked to the initiation of westerly wind anomalies prior to El Niño events and easterly wind anomalies prior to La Niña events in the western equatorial Pacific. Our analysis shows that East Asian cold surge events can be associated with the formation of an anomalous anticyclone that moves eastward across the North Pacific and cools the ocean surface prior to El Niño events. The outflow of the anomalous anticyclonic circulation is responsible for the initiation of westerly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific. We also find that East Asian cold surge events are involved in the development of an anomalous cyclone that moves northeastward along the subpolar North Pacific and reinforces the horizontal temperature gradient prior to La Niña events. The cross-equatorial flow into the anomalous cyclone in the North Pacific contributes to the development of easterly wind anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific. We show that air-sea interactions can play a role in the propagation of anomalous circulations across the North Pacific, eventually initiating zonal wind anomalies in the western equatorial Pacific. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the origins of high-salinity water in the southern Bay of Bengal (SBHSW) in summer (June to August) and its interannual variabilities associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). The two distinctive sources of the SBHSW, including the eastern Arabian Sea (AS) origin and the western equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO) origin mentioned in the previous studies are identified. The eastern AS origin has much higher salinity (35.5 PSU vs. 35.2 PSU), shallower isopycnal layers (1023.0–1023.5 kg m-3 vs. 1024.0–1024.5 kg m-3), and intrudes into the Bay of Bengal (BOB) approximately one month later compared to the western EIO origin, while accounting for 53% of the total salinity variability compared to 47% contribution from the western EIO origin. The interannual variabilities of SBHSW are closely linked with ENSO and IOD events, with contributions of approximately 47% and 41%, respectively. During El Niño decaying years, high-salinity water export from the western EIO origin into the southern bay (< 7°N) is enhanced due to the anomalous strong spring Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) associated with El Niño; while in the north of 7°N, the SBHSW was freshened both by the increased rainfall and by the downwelling associate with the anomalous anticyclonic wind. Similar processes operate but in an opposite direction during La Niña decaying years. In contrast, IOD exerts its influence on the SBHSW primarily through modulating the strength of SMC. Positive (negative) IOD caused the anomalous freshening (salty) SBHSW by weakening (enhancing) SMC and consequently advecting less (more) saline water into the BOB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The super long La Niña phenomenon, which has an extremely long duration, like the recent 2020–2023 La Niña event, is less concerned than the super El Niño. In this study, we identify five super long La Niña events after 1950 and investigate roles of the 2–3-year quasi-biennial (QB) and 3–7-year low-frequency (LF) ocean–atmosphere coupled processes of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the interdecadal background in forming the large-scale prolonged negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) in the central to eastern equatorial Pacific during these events. We group the five events into the thermocline-driven type (the 1983–1986 and 1998–2002 events) and the wind-driven type (the 1954–1957, 1973–1976, and 2020–2023 events). The former inherited a sufficiently discharged state of equatorial upper-ocean heat content from the preceding super El Niño and dominated by the thermocline feedback, leading to a LF oceanic dynamical adjustment to support the maintenance of negative ENSO SSTAs. The latter were promoted by the relatively more important zonal advective feedback and Ekman pumping feedback and deeply affected by a strongly negative equatorial zonal wind stress background state that sourced from the strong negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. Besides, the QB ENSO variability with casual contributions during these events is less important. Results show that both the LF ENSO variability and the interdecadal Pacific background could assist in generating prolonged La Niñas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]