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There are two opposing welfare effects of market power in a model with monopolistic competition, loan defaults and moral hazard. The loss of output produced if firms set a higher mark-up over marginal costs confronts with some gain due to higher expected profits and the reduction of defaults. Such tradeoff results in an optimal level of market power that decreases with the efficiency of liquidation following default on a loan. If moral hazard is pervasive, credit rationing cuts down the default rates and mitigates the welfare cost of financial frictions. The authors thank Banco de España for financial support through the project. Política monetaria en economías con fricciones financieras y bancarias. Miguel Casares and Jose E. Galdon-Sanchez also acknowledge financial support from Spanish State Research Agency through project PID2021-127119NB-I00 and by “ERDF A way of making Europe”. Luca G. Deidda also acknowledges the financial support by the Italian Ministero dell’Università (Grant No. 20157NH5TP), Fondazione di Sardegna, Università di Sassari (Una tantum 2019), and RAS (Grant No. RASSR89213).

Dissertation presented as the partial requirement for obtaining a Master's degree in Data Science and Advanced Analytics, specialization in Data Science Due to the recent financial crisis and regulatory concerns of Basel II, credit risk assessment is becoming a very important topic in the field of financial risk management. Financial institutions need to take great care when dealing with consumer loans in order to avoid losses and costs of opportunity. For this matter, credit scoring systems have been used to make informed decisions on whether or not to grant credit to clients who apply to them. Until now several credit scoring models have been proposed, from statistical models, to more complex artificial intelligence techniques. However, most of previous work is focused on employing single classifiers. Ensemble learning is a powerful machine learning paradigm which has proven to be of great value in solving a variety of problems. This study compares the performance of the industry standard, logistic regression, to four ensemble methods, i.e. AdaBoost, Gradient Boosting, Random Forest and Stacking in identifying potential loan defaults. All the models were built with a real world dataset with over one million customers from Lending Club, a financial institution based in the United States. The performance of the models was compared by using the Hold-out method as the evaluation design and accuracy, AUC, type I error and type II error as evaluation metrics. Experimental results reveal that the ensemble classifiers were able to outperform logistic regression on three key indicators, i.e. accuracy, type I error and type II error. AdaBoost performed better than the remaining classifiers considering a trade off between all the metrics evaluated. The main contribution of this thesis is an experimental addition to the literature on the preferred models for predicting potential loan defaulters.

Peer-to-Peer (P2P) lending is an online lending process allowing individuals to obtain or concede loans without the interference of traditional financial intermediaries. It has grown quickly the last years, with some platforms reaching billions of dollars of loans in principal in a short amount of time. Since each loan is associated with the probability of loss due to a borrower's failure, this paper addresses the borrower's default prediction problem in the P2P financial ecosystem. The main assumption, which makes this study different from the available literature, is that borrowers sharing the same homeownership status display similar risk profile, thus a model per segment should be developed. We estimate the Probability of Default (PD) of a borrower by using Logistic Regression (LR) coupled with Weight of Evidence encoding. The features set is identified via the Sequential Feature Selection (SFS). We compare the forward against the backward SFS, in terms of the Area Under the Curve (AUC), and we choose the one that maximizes this statistic. Finally, we compare the results of the chosen LR approach against two other popular Machine Learning (ML) techniques: the k Nearest Neighbors (k-NN) and the Random Forest (RF).

World Development Report 2022: Finance for an Equitable Recovery examines the central role of finance in the economic recovery from COVID-19. Based on an in-depth look at the consequences of the crisis most likely to affect low- and middle-income economies, it advocates a set of policies and measures to mitigate the interconnected economic risks stemming from the pandemic—risks that may become more acute as stimulus measures are withdrawn at both the domestic and global levels. Those policies include the efficient and transparent management of nonperforming loans to mitigate threats to financial stability, insolvency reforms to allow for the orderly reduction of unsustainable debts, innovations in risk management and lending models to ensure continued access to credit for households and businesses, and improvements in sovereign debt management to preserve the ability of governments to support an equitable recovery.

In order to stress test loan portfolios for the impacts of climate change, historical events need to be analyzed to create templates to stress test for future events. Using the 2012 Midwestern US drought as an example, this work creates a stress-testing template for future droughts. The analysis connects weather and crop yield data to impacts on local macroeconomic conditions by comparing drought-impacted agricultural counties with nearby urban counties. After measuring the net macroeconomic impacts of the drought, this was used as an overlay with existing macroeconomic stress models to stress test a lender in a different part of the US for possible drought impacts. Having a library of such climate events would allow lenders to stress test their portfolios for a wide range of possible impacts.

We analyze new lending to firms by a state-owned bank in crisis times, the potential adverse selection faced by the bank, and the causal real effects associated to its lending. For identification, we exploit: (i) a new credit facility set up in Spain by its state-owned bank during the credit crunch of 2010-2012; (ii) the bank s continuous scoring system, together with firms' individual credit scores and the threshold for granting vs. rejecting loan applications; (iii) the rich credit register matched with firm- and bank-level data. We show that, compared to privately-owned banks, the state-owned bank faces a worse pool of applicants, is tighter (softer) in lending to firms with observable (unobservable) riskier characteristics, and has substantial higher loan defaults. Using a regression discontinuity approach around the threshold, we show that the supply of credit causes large positive real effects on firm survival, employment, investment, total assets, sales, and productivity, as well as crowding-in of new credit by private banks.

There is wide agreement the US student loan system faces significant problems. Seven million borrowers are in default and many more experience non-repayment. The stress of repayments faced by many students results at least in part from the design of US student loans. Specifically, loans are organised like a mortgage, with fixed monthly repayments over a fixed period of time, creating a high repayment burden on borrowers with low income. This paper draws on the experience of the income-contingent loan (ICL) systems operating in England and Australia, in which monthly repayments are related to the borrower's monthly income. By design, those systems explicitly include insurance against problems of repayment during periods of low income. We discuss the design of this type of loan in detail since such an exercise seems to be largely absent in the US literature. Drawing on data from the US Current Population Survey (CPS) we provide two main empirical contributions. First a stylised illustration of the revenue and distributional implications of different hypothetical ICL arrangements for the USA; and second an illustration of repayment problems faced by low-earning borrowers in the US loan system, including a plausible example of adverse outcomes in the Stafford loan. Importantly, we compare repayment burdens under the existing and alternative systems. Our illustrations show how US mortgage-style loans can create financial difficulties for a significant minority of US borrowers, difficulties which a well-designed ICL has significant potential to address.

Because of their higher interest rates, subprime mortgages are subject to substantial prepayment risk as borrowers who succeed in improving their creditworthiness systematically prepay leaving those with higher credit risk in the mortgage pool. Lenders anticipated this problem and attached substantial prepayment penalties to subprime mortgages. Some state governments responded with regulations that banned prepayment penalties. This created a natural experiment in which the effects of prepayment penalties on the supply and performance of endorsed mortgages can be evaluated. Ho and Pennington Cross (2008) have demonstrated that these regulations reduced the supply of mortgage credit. In this paper, the effect of prepayment penalty restrictions on the performance of endorsed subprime mortgages is tested. Theory predicts that the restrictions should raise prepayment and lower default. The empirical results strongly confirm the first prediction while the effects on default have the correct sign but lack significance.

This report synthesizes the technical assistance (TA) “Cambodia Sanitation Marketing” carried out by the World Bank’s Water and Sanitation Program (WSP) from July 2011 to February 2015 in support of developing the rural sanitation market in Cambodia. It documents the results and lessons learned and makes recommendations to government on how - with support of development partners – the effectiveness and scale of the sanitation market can be increased to achieve sustainable sanitation outcomes for rural Cambodians. This TA is part of a larger support program to assist the Government of Cambodia, notably the Ministry of Rural Development, to increase access and use of improved sanitation in rural areas of Cambodia. Technical Assistance P132212 is a complementary effort that focusses on strengthening the policy and enabling environment for rural sanitation service delivery at national and sub-national level. The following lessons were learned from the TA: (1) the local private sector has catered more than 50,000 latrines to rural households, (2) the provinces where the TA was taking place experienced an average 10 percentage point increase in overall sanitation access, more than three times the national average increase within the same time period, (3) the increase in sanitation access among the poor was eight percentage point indicating the challenges that the private sector has in reaching the poorer segment of the population, (4) the private sector’s revenue was estimated to amount to nearly USD 2.6 million from the sales of the underground latrine core, and (5) more than USD 600,000 was disbursed by two microfinance institutions (MFIs) to nearly 10,000 cash constrained households, enabling them to gain access to improved sanitation.

This report highlights recent economic updates in Bangladesh as of April 2015. Economic growth in Bangladesh was gaining momentum in the first half of FY15. Capacity utilization improved and investments were showing some signs of recovery. This growth was also job-friendly. The 12-monthly-moving average inflation decelerated from 7.6 percent in February 2014 to 6.8 percent in February 2015. The resilience of the Bangladesh economy continues to be tested by faltering political stability, weak global markets, and structural constraints. These are inhibiting the economy s income growth as well as progress on shared prosperity. Despite the emergence of a $1.3 billion deficit in the current account in the first seven months of FY15, the surplus in the overall balance of payments has been sustained, leading to continued accumulation of official foreign exchange reserves to prevent nominal exchange rate appreciation. Reserves are at a comfortable level at over 6 months of imports of goods and services. Fiscal policy has remained consistent with macroeconomic stability. Tax revenue growth has been weaker than targeted while expenditure have also been short due as usual to an implementation shortfall. The projected recovery in global growth, particularly in the United States and the Euro Zone, and continued softness in international commodity prices, bode well for Bangladesh. The country will need to restore political stability and implement faster structural reforms to capitalize on these opportunities. The potential GDP growth rate is on a declining path due to declining labor force growth and stagnant productivity growth, as well as the rate of capital accumulation. Raising the low Female Labor Force Participation (FLFP) rate offers on opportunity to boost the economy s potential growth rate. Moving forward, the biggest challenge remains ensuring durable political stability. This is a precondition for accelerated, inclusive, and sustainable growth.

This report explores the potential financing mechanism options that can be employed to catalyze more private sector investment in clean energy (renewable energy and energy efficiency) in the small island developing states (SIDS). Various financial instruments that have been used successfully to date are described and placed in the context of the issues and constraints of the SIDS, with suggested options for discussion and follow up. Green infrastructure finance, as defined in the report, makes the important point that is the combination of financial and nonfinancial interventions and instruments that can make green investments in infrastructure more affordable and less risky to private sponsors, financial markets, and governments. The objective of this report is to identify and assess options that can help increase investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency in SIDS through the adoption and funding of financing mechanisms by SIDS and development partners with special attention given to the role that the private sector can play. Many renewable energy technologies are characterized by high initial capital costs with relatively low operating costs compared to thermal alternatives. By providing an analysis of options for a financing facility to catalyze renewable energy and energy efficiency, this work is intended to inform the discussions among SIDS and development partners interested in actions to stimulate investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency. This report summarizes the results of the two stages. The assessment and selection of options identifies a number of measures that will be needed to stimulate increased private sector participation - project sponsors and developers, equity funds, lending institutions - for energy efficiency and renewable energy. The background material reviewed for this report has been summarized in the annexes.

This paper studies the use of psychometric tests, which were designed by the Entrepreneurial Finance Lab as a tool to screen out high credit risk and potentially increase access to credit for small business owners in Peru. The analysis uses administrative data covering the period from June 2011 to April 2014 to compare debt accrual and repayment behavior patterns across entrepreneurs who were offered a loan based on the traditional credit-scoring method versus the Entrepreneurial Finance Lab tool. The paper finds that the psychometric test can lower the risk of the loan portfolio when used as a secondary screening mechanism for already banked entrepreneurs—that is, those with a credit history. For unbanked entrepreneurs—those without a credit history—using the Entrepreneurial Finance Lab tool can increase access to credit without increasing portfolio risk.

A portfolio based model (Credit Risk of Credit Suisse First Boston) and recent Central Bank of Argentina credit bureau data are used to estimate whether current capital and provisioning regulations match actual risks. Arguing that provisions should cover expected losses and that capital requirements should cover potential losses beyond expected losses subject to some statistical level of tolerance, the article assesses how well actual capital and provisioning requirements match the estimated requirements given by the model. Actual provisioning requirements were found to be close to implied levels of expected losses. The estimate of potential losses was found to be highly sensitive to the assumptions of the model, especially the parameter relating the volatility of a loan's rate of default to its mean value. This volatility parameter cannot be estimated accurately with the credit bureau data because of the short time span covered, so proxy data were used to estimate it, and two values around that estimate were tried. The difficulty of estimating this critical parameter implies that the results should only be regarded as suggestive. Moreover, the methodology only does not seek to estimate credit risk and not interest rate risk or exchange rate risk, nor does it fully take into account the indirect effects of interest rates and exchange rates on credit risk. As recent events in Argentina have demonstrated, estimating credit risk along these lines should be thought of as just one tool in attempting to assess the appropriate level of bank provisions and capital.

This report is organized into three main sections. Section one sets out the context by describing the particular challenges and opportunities related to financing agriculture, followed by defining the target group of agricultural SME s. Section two describes a set of innovative financing models. Section three then provides a framework for an indicative assessment of these models by gathering and forming observations from the case studies. The model observations are then highlighted in three types of country contexts in which bankers in developing countries may find themselves. Preliminary assessment results are presented. The report concludes with key lessons learned on innovative agricultural financing, relevant case studies, and an outlook on further work in this area. Annexes present methodologies and case studies representing the various models.

We develop and calibrate a dynamic equilibrium model of relationship lending in which banks are unable to access the equity markets every period and the business cycle is a Markov process that determines loans' probabilities of default. Banks anticipate that shocks to their earnings and the possible variation of capital requirements over the cycle can impair their future lending capacity and, as a precaution, hold capital buffers. We compare the relative performance of several capital regulation regimes, including one that maximizes a measure of social welfare. We show that Basel II is significantly more procyclical than Basel I, but makes banks safer. For this reason, it dominates Basel I in terms of welfare except for small social costs of bank failure. We also show that for high values of this cost, Basel III points in the right direction, with higher but less cyclically-varying capital requirements.

The global financial crisis and ensuing credit crunch has revived the discussion on the role of public sector in the financial system around the world and in El Salvador, authorities have announced plans to step up their activities. A clearly defined strategy for the public banks, focused on complementing private sector activity, is necessary as their activities expand to improve access to finance and diversify the sources of funding. Any process of growth needs to accompany by improvement in risk management processes, governance arrangements and enhanced supervision. Going forward, the two public retail banks should increase their specialization in different market segments. The development bank role can be enhanced while maintaining its second tier status. To make the guarantee funds effective, in addition to scale their size, several operational features need to be improved.

We assess the procyclical effects of bank capital regulation in a dynamic equilibrium model of relationship lending in which banks are unable to access the equity markets every period. Banks anticipate that shocks to their earnings as well as the cyclical position of the economy can impair their capacity to lend in the future and, as a precaution, hold capital buffers. We find that under cyclically-varying risk-based capital requirements (e.g. Basel II) banks hold larger buffers in expansions than in recessions. Yet, these buffers are insufficient to prevent a significant contraction in the supply of credit at the arrival of a recession. We show that cyclical adjustments in the confidence level underlying Basel II can reduce its procyclical effects on the supply of credit without compromising banks’ long-run solvency targets.

We assess the procyclical effects of bank capital regulation in a dynamic equilibrium model of relationship lending in which banks are unable to access the equity markets every period. Banks anticipate that shocks to their earnings as well as the cyclical position of the economy can impair their capacity to lend in the future and, as a precaution, hold capital buffers. We find that under cyclically-varying risk-based capital requirements (e.g. Basel II) banks hold larger buffers in expansions than in recessions. Yet, these buffers are insufficient to prevent a significant contraction in the supply of credit at the arrival of a recession. We show that cyclical adjustments in the confidence level underlying Basel II can reduce its procyclical effects on the supply of credit without compromising banks’ long-run solvency targets.

We assess the procyclical effects of bank capital regulation in a dynamic equilibrium model of relationship lending in which banks are unable to access the equity markets every period. Banks anticipate that shocks to their earnings as well as the cyclical position of the economy can impair their capacity to lend in the future and, as a precaution, hold capital buffers. We find that under cyclically-varying risk-based capital requirements (e.g. Basel II) banks hold larger buffers in expansions than in recessions. Yet, these buffers are insufficient to prevent a significant contraction in the supply of credit at the arrival of a recession. We show that cyclical adjustments in the confidence level underlying Basel II can reduce its procyclical effects on the supply of credit without compromising banks’ long-run solvency targets.

We assess the procyclical effects of bank capital regulation in a dynamic equilibrium model of relationship lending in which banks are unable to access the equity markets every period. Banks anticipate that shocks to their earnings as well as the cyclical position of the economy can impair their capacity to lend in the future and, as a precaution, hold capital buffers. We find that under cyclically-varying risk-based capital requirements (e.g. Basel II) banks hold larger buffers in expansions than in recessions. Yet, these buffers are insufficient to prevent a significant contraction in the supply of credit at the arrival of a recession. We show that cyclical adjustments in the confidence level underlying Basel II can reduce its procyclical effects on the supply of credit without compromising banks’ long-run solvency targets.

We have assembled a unique loan-level performance dataset for mortgages originated in the UK to study the differences in default likelihood between loans of varying borrower and loan characteristics. We can broadly confirm the relevance of most commonly known riskfactors and find that most drivers of default for prime are also relevant for non-conforming, drivers of repossessions are largely similar to drivers of arrears and information on adverse borrower information dominates any other risk factor. Our study provides many more details and compares results with recent studies for the US and other European countries.

In October 2004, the Government of Indonesia (GOI) issued law 33/2004 concerning the Fiscal Balance between the central government and the regional governments. Like its predecessor, law 25-1999, the law stipulates a series of administrative sanctions that the Government may impose on regional governments that do not comply with certain of its provisions. These sanctions will take the form of a deferment or cut, depending on the specific nature of the non-compliance, in the general allocation (Dana Alokasi Umum or DAU) or shared revenues (Dana Bagi Hasil or DBH) to which the region would otherwise be entitled. The Ministry of Finance (MoF) is currently preparing a decree to operationalize this so-called intercept mechanism, and has requested the Decentralization Support Facility (DSF) to provide advice on the development of an effective DAU and DBH intercept mechanism. This final report presents the findings of a consultant ("the Consultant") contracted by DSF to provide this advice. Chapter two discusses administrative requirements to decrees and regulations that govern the allocation of DAU and DBH to regional governments, to ensure that the intercept mechanism remains effective. Chapter three describes the key features of an accounting mechanism that directs intercepted funds to the treasury, and remits the balance of the transfer to the defaulting regional government. The annex to this report contains the results of simulations the consultant has performed at the request of DJPK since the publication of the interim report.

A large theoretical literature shows that competition reduces banks' franchise values and induces them to take more risk. Recent research contradicts this result: When banks charge lower rates, their borrowers have an incentive to choose safer investments, so they will in turn be safer. However, this argument does not take into account the fact that lower rates also reduce the banks' revenues from performing loans. This paper shows that when this effect is taken into account, a U-shaped relationship between competition and the risk of bank failure generally obtains. The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org., Oxford University Press.

The subprime mortgage crisis ranks among the most serious economic events affecting the United States since the great depression of the 1930s. This study analyzes key issues raised by the crisis at three levels: (i) issues directly and specifically relating to subprime mortgage lending; (ii) issues relating to the securitization of subprime mortgages; and (iii) issues affecting financial markets and institutions. These issues are fundamental to risk bearing, sharing, and transfer in financial markets and institutions around the world. Many of the issues raised by the U.S. subprime crisis also apply to high-risk loan markets in developing countries. The framework applied in the paper analyzes subprime mortgage lending as a major financial market innovation. Although conditions were conducive for subprime lending to arise as a financial innovation, financial innovations are necessarily risky undertakings, all the more so when they create new classes of risky loans and securities. The lessons learned from the crisis can thus be usefully applied to issues of the growth and development of emerging economies, as well as pointing the way to the design of new and efficient policies for subprime lending in the developed economies.

A binomial logit model was used to analyze relationships between financial characteristics and loan performance for FSA direct borrowers receiving direct FO or OL loans in fiscal 2005. Not surprisingly, the results indicate a strong and direct relationship between many key financial variables and probability of default. Production specialization, however, was indicated to have just as important an impact on probability of default as many financial variables. Other strong indicators included farm size, membership in a targeted group, and the ability to obtain credit from commercial lenders.

We analyze the cyclical effects of moving from risk-insensitive (Basel I) to risk-sensitive (Basel II) capital requirements in the context of a dynamic equilibrium model of relationship lending in which banks are unable to access the equity markets every period. Banks anticipate that shocks to their earnings as well as the cyclical position of the economy can impair their capacity to lend in the future and, as a precaution, hold capital buffers. We find that the new regulation changes the behavior of these buffers from countercyclical to procyclical. Yet, the higher buffers maintained in expansions are insufficient to prevent a significant contraction in the supply of credit at the arrival of a recession. We show that cyclical adjustments in the confidence level behind Basel II can reduce its procyclical effects without compromising banks' long-run solvency.

We analyse the implications for the pricing of bank loans of the reform of capital regulation known as Basel II. We consider a perfectly competitive market for business loans where, as in the model underlying the internal ratings based (IRB) approach of Basel II, a single risk factor explains the correlation in defaults across firms. Our loan pricing equation implies that low-risk firms will achieve reductions in their loan rates by borrowing from banks adopting the IRB approach, while high-risk firms will avoid increases in their loan rates by borrowing from banks that adopt the less risk-sensitive standardized approach of Basel II. We also show that only an extremely high social cost of bank failure might justify the proposed IRB capital charges for high-risk loans, partly because the margin income from performing loans is not counted as a buffer against credit losses, and we propose a margin income correction for IRB capital requirements.