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This study explores the performance of gradient boosting methods in bankruptcy prediction for a highly imbalanced dataset. We developed different heterogenous ensemble models based on three popular gradient boosting methods—XGBoost, LightGBM, and CatBoost. Our ensemble models were optimized using the cross‐validation method and the results of the hold‐out test sets showed that the optimized ensemble models not only outperform their base learners, but also improve the state‐of‐the‐art benchmark results on the same dataset. Interestingly, we observed that the data oversampling technique that is commonly used to address the class imbalance issue had an adverse impact on our ensemble models' performance. This indicates that our models are robust to the imbalanced dataset problem that typically degrades the classification performance of machine learning models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wind energy is a clean, sustainable, and renewable source. It is receiving a large amount of attention from governments and energy companies worldwide as it plays a significant role as an alternative source of energy in reducing carbon emissions. However, due to long-term operation in reduced and difficult weather conditions, wind turbine blades are always seriously damaged. Hence, damage detection in blade structure is essential to evaluate its operational condition and ensure its structural integrity and safety. We aim to use fractal, entropy, and chaos concepts as descriptors for the diagnosis of wind turbine blade condition. They are, respectively, estimated by the correlation dimension, approximate entropy, and the Lyapunov exponent. Formal statistical tests are performed to check how they are different across wind turbine blade conditions. The experimental results follow. First, the correlation dimension is not able to distinguish between all conditions of wind turbine blades. Second, approximate entropy is suitable to distinguish between healthy and erosion conditions and between healthy and mass imbalance conditions. Third, chaos is not a discriminative feature to distinguish between wind turbine blade conditions. Fourth, wind turbine blades with either erosion or mass imbalance exhibit less irregularity in their respective signals than healthy wind turbine blades. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The price and return time series are two distinct features of any financial asset. Hence, examining the evolution of multiscale characteristics of price and returns sequential data in time domain would be helpful in gaining a better understanding of the dynamical evolution mechanism of the financial asset as a complex system. In fact, this is important to understand their respective dynamics and to design their appropriate predictive models. The main purpose of the current work is to investigate the multiscale fractals of price and return high frequency data in Turkish stock market. In this regard, the wavelet leaders computational method is applied to each high frequency data to reveal its multi-fractal behavior. In particular, the method is applied to a large set of Turkish stocks and statistical results are performed to check for (i) presence of multi-fractals in price and return series and (ii) differences between prices and returns in terms of multi-fractals. Our statistical results show strong evidence that high frequency price and return data exhibit multi-fractal dynamics. In addition, they show evidence of distinct fractal characteristics on different scales between price and return series. Furthermore, our statistical results show evidence of differences in local fluctuation characteristics of price and return time series. Therefore, differences in local characteristics are useful to build specific predictive models for each type of data for better modeling and prediction to generate profits. Besides, we found evidence that both long-range correlations and fat-tail distributions contribute to the multifractality in Turkish stocks. This finding can be attributed to the major role played by international investors in increasing the volatility of Turkish stocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]