Jessica E. Tierney, Thomas Felis, Yochanan Kushnir, Gavin A. Schmidt, Charuta Kulkarni, Justin T. Maxwell, Flavio Lehner, Martin Widmann, Rosanne D'Arrigo, Atsushi Okazaki, Benjamin I. Cook, Sylvia G. Dee, Elena Xoplaki, Bronwen Konecky, Eduardo L. Piovano, Edward R. Cook, Sophie C. Lewis, Deepti Singh, Sloan Coats, Johann H. Jungclaus, Chris Colose, Justin S. Mankin, Wenmin Man, Richard Seager, Samantha Stevenson, Christoph C. Raible, Huan Zhang, Seung H. Baek, Judson W. Partin, Toby R. Ault, Jürg Luterbacher, Caroline Leland, Ailie J. E. Gallant, Jacob Scheff, Alyssa R. Atwood, Davide Zanchettin, Kim M. Cobb, A. Park Williams, Steven J. Phipps, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, Allegra N. LeGrande, Nathan J. Steiger, Mukund Palat Rao, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Jonathan G. Palmer, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Alex S. Lopatka, Hans W. Linderholm, Jason E. Smerdon, Michael L. Griffiths, Brendan M. Buckley, and PAGES Hydro2K Consortium
Water availability is fundamental to societies and ecosystems, but our understanding of variations 55 in hydroclimate (includingextreme events, flooding, and decadal periods of drought) is limited because of a paucity of modern instrumental observationsthat are distributed unevenly across the globe and only span parts of the 20th and 21st centuries. Such data coverage isinsufficient for characterizing hydroclimate and its associated dynamics because of its multidecadal-to-centennial variability andhighly regionalized spatial signature. High-resolution (seasonal to decadal) hydroclimatic proxies that span all or parts of the60 Common Era (CE) and paleoclimate model simulations are therefore important tools for augmenting our understanding ofhydroclimate variability. In particular, the comparison of the two sources of information is critical for addressing theuncertainties and limitations of both, while enriching each of their interpretations. We review the principal proxy data availablefor hydroclimatic reconstructions over the CE and highlight contemporary understanding of how these proxies are interpreted ashydroclimate indicators. We also review the available last-millennium simulations from fully-coupled climate models and65 discuss several outstanding challenges associated with simulating hydroclimate variability and change over the CE. A specificreview of simulated hydroclimatic changes forced by volcanic events is provided, as well as a discussion of expectedimprovements in estimated forcings, models and their implementation in the future. Our review of hydroclimatic proxies andlast-millennium model simulations is used as the basis for articulating a variety of considerations and best practices for how toperform proxy-model comparisons of CE hydroclimate. This discussion provides a framework for how best to evaluate70 hydroclimate variability and its associated dynamics using these comparisons, as well as how they can better informinterpretations of both proxy data and model simulations. We subsequently explore means of using proxy-model comparisonsto better constrain and characterize future hydroclimate risks. This is explored specifically in the context of several examplesthat demonstrate how proxy-model comparisons can be used to quantitatively constrain future hydroclimatic risks as estimatedfrom climate model projections. Fil: Smerdon, Jason E.. Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Luterbacher, Jürg. University Of Giessen; Alemania Fil: Phipps, Steven J.. University of Tasmania; Australia Fil: Anchukaitis, Kevin J.. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos Fil: Ault, Toby. Cornell University; Estados Unidos Fil: Coats, Sloan. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos Fil: Cobb, Kim M.. Instituto Tecnológico de Georgia; Estados Unidos Fil: Cook, Benjamin I.. Nasa Goddard Institute For Space Studies; Estados Unidos Fil: Colose, Chris. Nasa Goddard Institute For Space Studies; Estados Unidos Fil: Felis, Thomas. Universitat Bremen; Alemania Fil: Gallant, Ailie. Monash University; Australia Fil: Jungclaus, Johann H.. Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology; Alemania Fil: Konecky, Bronwen. State University of Colorado at Boulder; Estados Unidos Fil: LeGrande, Allegra. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studie; Estados Unidos Fil: Lewis, Sophie. The Australian National University; Australia Fil: Lopatka, Alex S.. University of Maryland; Estados Unidos Fil: Man, Wenmin. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China Fil: Mankin, Justin S.. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies; Estados Unidos Fil: Maxwell, Justin T.. Indiana University; Estados Unidos Fil: Otto-Bliesner, Bette L.. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos Fil: Partin, Judson W.. University of Texas at Austin; Estados Unidos Fil: Singh, Deepti. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Stevenson, Samantha. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos Fil: Tierney, Jessica E.. Arizona State University; Estados Unidos Fil: Zanchettin, Davide. Ca’ Foscari University of Venice; Italia Fil: Zhang, Huan. Justus Liebig University; Alemania Fil: Atwood, Alyssa R.. Georgia Institute of Technology; Estados Unidos. Brown University; Estados Unidos Fil: Andreu Hayles, Laia. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Baek, Seung H.. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Buckley, Brendan. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Cook, Edward. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: D'Arrigo, Rosanne. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Dee, Sylvia G.. Brown University; Estados Unidos Fil: Griffiths, Michael L.. William Paterson University; Estados Unidos Fil: Kulkarni, Charuta. City University of New York; Estados Unidos Fil: Kushnir, Yochanan. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Lehner, Flavio. National Center for Atmospheric Research; Estados Unidos Fil: Leland, Caroline. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Linderholm, Hans W.. University of Gothenburg; Suecia Fil: Okazaki, Atsushi. University of Tokyo; Japón Fil: Palmer, Jonathan. University of New South Wales; Australia Fil: Piovano, Eduardo Luis. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Córdoba. Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas Físicas y Naturales. Centro de Investigaciones en Ciencias de la Tierra; Argentina Fil: Raible, Christoph C.. University of Bern; Suiza Fil: Rao, Mukund P.. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Scheff, Jacob. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Schmidt, Gavin A.. NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studie; Estados Unidos Fil: Seager, Richard. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Widmann, Martin. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Park Williams, A.. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University; Estados Unidos Fil: Xoplaki, Elena. Justus Liebig University; Alemania