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År 2017 kom utsläppen av växthusgaser i Sverige till cirka 27 procent från industrierna, vilket motsvarar 17 203 tusen ton koldioxidekvivalenter. De fyra industrisektorerna med den största klimatgasutsläpp i Sverige är järn och stål, cement, raffinaderier och kemi. Denna rapport fokuserar på dessa fyra sektorer som tillsammans släpper ut 80 % av de industriella utsläppen av växthusgaser i Sverige. Var och en av dessa sektorer har flera möjliga vägar för att bli klimatneutrala. Beskrivning och diskussion av dessa vägar är fokus för denna rapport. Med bakgrund av klimatutmaningen är slutsatsen att det inte är möjligt att nå tillräckligt långt enbart med effektivisering av nuvarande industriprocesserna. Eftersom en stor del av utsläppen inte härstammar från energianvändning utan från processerna i sig samt användningen av fossil råvara, finns det behov av transformativa förändringar som nya processer och användning av nytt råmaterial. Många av alternativen är tekniskt omogna och det är många års utveckling kvar innan de kunde implementeras i stor skala. Förutom de tekniska utmaningarna finns det ytterligare hinder för transformationen. Till exempel tillgång och pris på råvaror, osäker marknad för nya produkter och även juridiska hinder i viss mån. Dessutom kräver några av alternativen utveckling av infrastruktur. Till exempel kräver elektrifiering av stål- och cementproduktion förstärkning av elnätet och ökad produktion av förnybar el. Vissa av de tekniska alternativen kommer inte att vara färdiga för fullskalig implementering på många år, ibland till och med årtionden. Men klimatutmaningen behöver hanteras snabbare än så. Därför det viktigt att även beakta möjliga övergångsteknologier. Dessa kanske inte reducerar hela utsläppet men utgör ändå en viktig pusselbit. Behovet av koldioxidinfångning och lagring eller användning (CCS/CCU) är oundvikligt under övergångsfasen, men också i ett framtida scenario där all transformation är genomförd. Särskilt som det inte är möjligt att producera klimatneutralt cement utan CCS/CCU. CCU är dock inte en varaktig lagring utan snarare ett sätt att flytta utsläppen till ett annat ställe. Det kan dock delvis ersätta användning av fossil råvara och därmed bidra till minskning av nya fossila växthusgasutsläpp. In year 2017, about 27 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden originated from the industries. This equals to 17,203 thousand tonnes carbon dioxide equivalents. Within the Swedish industry, the four industrial sectors with the largest climate gas release are Iron and steel, Cement, Refineries and Chemicals. This report focuses on these four sectors which together emit 80 % of the industrial greenhouse gas emissions in Sweden. Each of these sectors have several possible pathways to become climate neutral. In this report some possible pathways are described and discussed. In order to reach climate neutrality, transformative changes such as new processes and use of new raw material are needed. This is because a vast part of the emissions in all the sectors in question originates from the processes themselves or the use of fossil feedstock, not only from energy use. Many of the options are technically immature and there are many years of development left before they could be implemented in large scale. Several technical challenges exist which are related to the processes, but in addition, there are several barriers of non-technical nature for the transformation. For example, supply and price of raw materials, uncertain market for new products and even some legal barriers. Furthermore, some of the options require development of infrastructure, for example the electrification of steel and cement production demands strengthening of the electric grids and increased production of renewable electricity. Some of the technical options will not be ready for full-scale implementation in many years, even decades. But the climate challenge needs to be tackled quickly. Therefore, an aspect to consider is the demand for additional CO2 reduction technologies during a transition phase. These technical options may not reduce all the emissions but still make an important contribution. Carbon capture and storage or usage (CCS/CCU) is inevitable during the transition phase, but also in a future scenario where all the new technologies are implemented. In particular, this applies to the cement industry since it will not be possible to produce climate neutral cement without CCS/CCU. It should be noted that CCU does no remove the CO2 but transfers it elsewhere. However, it could partly reduce the climate impact from the use of new fossil resources. ISBN för värdpublikation: 978-91-7883-131-9

Sammantaget har projektet identifierat 7 huvudsakliga kunskapsluckor där kompletterande material behöver tas fram för att en mer rättvisande bedömning ska kunna göras mellan olika drivmedelsalternativ. Kunskapssyntesen visar tydligt att resultatet i en samhällsekonomisk analys beror på hur systemgränserna sätts från början. Vidare så ses i analysen att det är möjligt att styra utfallet av en jämförande bedömning mot ett visst resultat genom de aspekter som ingår. Det går att säga att ett mer korrekt resultat fås fram ju fler parametrar som ingår, ju bredare systemgränserna sätts och ju fler aspekter som vägs in. Å andra sidan så använder de jämförda studierna så pass olika metodik att det är svårt att dra några slutsatser mellan dessa och utfallet i de olika studiernas ranking. För vissa av aspekterna används mer standardiserade och/eller etablerade metoder för värdering av eventuell nytta. Generellt för biodrivmedel saknas kunskap, forskningsunderlag och metoder för att i kronor värdera ett stort antal nyttor som är viktiga för vårt samhälle. Denna studie är en kunskapssyntes där miljönyttor har värderats för ett flertal drivmedel. Projektet har genomfört en kartläggning av samhällsekonomiska analyser som beskriver hur värderingen av olika drivmedel kan variera beroende på: indata, systemgränser och metodval.

Förnybara drivmedel och system

The thesis analyzes the conditions for biogas in the Swedish transport sector. Biogas can contribute to the achievement of Sweden’s ambitious targets of decreased emissions of greenhouse gases and an increased share of renewables in the transport sector, a sector that encompasses the major challenges in the phase-out of fossil fuels. Biogas development has stagnated during recent years and there are several factors that have contributed to this. The use of biogas in transport has developed in niches strongly affected by policy instruments and in this thesis, the progress is understood as a policy-driven systemic transition. Biogas has (started to) become established at the regime level and has begun to replace fossil fuels. The major obstacles for continued biogas development are found to be the stagnated vehicle gas demand, the low predictability of Swedish policy instruments, and electric car development. Moreover, the current prolonged period of low oil prices has also contributed to a lack of top-down pressure. A large share of the cheap and easily accessible feedstock for conventional biogas production is already utilized and an increased use of vehicle gas could enable a commercial introduction of forest-derived methane. However, the technologies to produce forest-derived methane are still not commercial, although there are industrial actors with technological know-how. Future biogas development depends on how the policy framework develops. Policy makers should consider the dynamics of biogas as a young sociotechnical system where different system fronts develop at a varying pace. Currently the demand side is lagging behind. However, it is necessary to maintain predictable policy support throughout the entire biogas value chain, since the system fronts that lag can vary over time. The low predictability of Swedish policy instruments indicates that policy makers should exercise care in their design to create a more robust policy framework moving forward. QC 20170508

Forest-derived methane may contribute significantly to a vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels by 2030. At present, there is sufficient technical knowledge about energy conversion methods and several Swedish actors have investigated and prepared investments in production facilities, but the technology is not commercially mature yet and it needs support during a development period. Investments in the technology have become less favorable because of the drop in the oil price in 2014. In addition, the predictability of the policy instruments supporting production and use of renewable energy are perceived as low by investors. This report emphasize that these factors combined are major reasons why potential investments are postponed. We have conducted a literature study and an interview study with three industry actors to answer the question “How can forest derived methane complement biogas from anaerobic digestion in the Swedish transport sector?” Interviews were mostly conducted in situ and in co-operation with the f3 project “Examining systemic constraints and drivers for production of forest-derived transport biofuels” (f3 2014-002370). The literature study included the recent development of renewable transport fuels in Sweden, existing and proposed policy instruments, and possible technical pathways from forest biomass to transport fuels. Sweden has accomplished a high share of renewables in the transport sector – 12 % based on energy content or 17 % when accounting in accordance with the EU Renewable Energy Sources Directive (RES). Thus, Sweden has the highest share of renewables in the transport sector among the member states and has with a good margin accomplished the EU-RES target of 10 % renewables by 2020. The use of electricity in plug-in electric vehicles is not included in these figures and the number of electric vehicles is increasing rapidly. The most common biofuels in transport are biodiesel, ethanol, and biogas. Biodiesel increases rapidly, mainly through low blend-in, and is now the most common biofuel in the Swedish transport sector. The majority is HVO (Hydrotreated Vegetable Oils), but the share of FAME (Fatty Acid Methyl Esters) is still considerable. The use of ethanol peaked during 2008 and has been decreasing since then. Ethanol is distributed through both low and high blend-in (E5 and E85). The use of upgraded biogas in the transport sector has increased continuously since its introduction 1996. Upgraded biogas is complemented by natural gas to meet the vehicle gas demand. A voluntary agreement among the distributors maintains a minimum biogas share that corresponds to 50 %. The biogas share is much higher today (74 % by volume, average Jan.-Aug. 2015) and some large end-users use pure upgraded biogas. Upgraded biogas is mainly distributed in compressed form through gas cylinders (79 %), but also through injection to the natural gas grid (21 %). Very little biogas is distributed in liquid form (LBG). Studies of the practical production potential shows that the current vehicle gas demand could be met entirely with upgraded biogas. However, an increased demand will eventually require other production pathways based on other feedstocks. Gasification of forest biomass is one such pathway. One alternative is that an increased demand is met with natural gas, resulting in fossil lock-in effects. Another alternative is a stagnated vehicle gas market. Production of upgraded biogas and use in the transport sector have been promoted in different ways, e.g., demand on handling of waste that will promote anaerobic digestion, investment support to production facilities, support to distribution infrastructure, environmental car premiums, and exemptions of energy and CO2 taxes. The tax exemptions are only granted until the end of 2015 but the Swedish government has applied for permission to the European Commission for a tax exemption until the end of 2020. A biofuel may only be compensated to a certain level to comply with rules set by the European Commission. If the renewable alternative is cheaper because of tax exemptions or tax reductions it is considered as overcompensation and illegal state aid and the compensation has to be adjusted. This has in Sweden occurred for FAME, E5 and E85, but since the cost for biogas is almost twice that of natural gas, it is not likely that the tax exemptions for biogas will be considered as illegal state aid. Among the suggested policy instruments in the FFF inquiry are the price premium model and the quota obligation. The government prepared for a quota obligation but it was later withdrawn because the European Commission considered it as illegal state aid when combined with Sweden´s current CO2 tax. These changes decrease the predictability for potential investors. The actors that we have interviewed propose different policy instruments to promote production of transport fuels from forest biomass: the price premium model, a quota obligation, or a system inspired by the tradable green certificate system. However, more important than the type of policy instrument is that the support is substantial and predictable during the pay back period of the investment. There is a large potential in forest biomass for transport fuel production in Sweden. Different pathways, which result in different transport fuels, compete not only for the feedstock and the end-users, but also for financing, research & development funds, and the policy makers’ attention. This study suggests that: In order to attract investments in forest-derived methane, the vehicle gas market must continue to increase. Increased policy support directed at the demand may be needed. This is because the gasification technology is sensitive to economies of scale and the size of the facilities that have been considered are equivalent to the entire market for upgraded biogas. To invest in such a facility implies too large a risk given the size of the current demand and the uncertainties of the future market. If methane should be able to play an increasingly important role in a future transportation sector, the gasification technology need policy support during a development period. The predictability of policy support is perceived as low. The predictability is more important than the specific type of policy instrument to attract investments. The interviewees in this report suggest the following policy instruments for the support of forest-derived methane: the price premium model, a quota obligation, or a system inspired by the tradable green certificate system. The current low oil price decreases the likelihood for investments. Policy instruments that compensate for the oil price risk are needed, e.g. the price premium model. Swedish industry actors can realize the potential in forest biomass through production of transport fuels if beneficial conditions are given. Such a development does not only contribute to a vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels but also to regional development. QC 20160229

Forest industry portfolio diversification into transport fuels is important for Swedish climate and energy policy goal achievement, and for Swedish forest industry competitiveness. This paper presents the research background and methodologyfor a project that examines constraints/drivers to the expansion of Swedish forest-derived transport biofuels. It focuses on the interaction of innovation niches with the incumbent socio-technical regime, and the interplay of innovators as they seek to advance their technology systems. The study is on-going and about to enter field interviews using this preparatory work as a base. Literature reviews, interviews and web-survey(s) are to deliver improved understanding of the positions/views and activities of transportation biofuel producers, heavy transport motor platform developers, and incumbent petrochemical industry actors. Theinvestigation addresses a) synergies or competition for resources or political support; b) proponent strategies in forest, biofuel and petrochemical sectors; c) general ‘viability perceptions’ for leading fuel-engine systems/pathways. It is to provide improved knowledge for decision-making to policy makers, industry, and researchers, regarding the structural function of important regime level drivers and constraints – and where policy interventions are a help/hinder to desired progress. This article delivers the theoretical considerations, research approach, and a mapping of research targets., Proceedings of the 23rd European Biomass Conference and Exhibition, 1-4 June 2015, Vienna, Austria, pp. 1610-1620

The paper uses Stockholm County as a case study to guide our analysis. The region not only concentrates the largest number of inhabitants in Sweden but also holds alone around 35% of the Swedish fleet of passenger cars using gas as fuel. The region’s potential vehicle gas demands are 460 GWh by 2020 and 1 202 GWh by 2030. The methodological approach relies on Network Theory to guide the numerical analysis of the vehicle gas supply chain in the region. Our results indicates that local vehicle gas supply chain is a rigid structure that might be averse to new entrants such as new distribution companies but, at the same time, it offers opportunities for biogas producers. Distribution companies, especially those placed in the 1st-tier segment are averse to new entrants because they present high homophily and strong ties. Hence, they are more prone to maintain the network’s status quo since the Swedish vehicle gas market is not yet well developed, which results in a lack of multiple players, which leads to cluster formation. QC 20150828

In current debates on biofuels trade, the focus tends to be on large-scale production. However, the production of small-scale biofuels is better suited for many smaller developing and least-developed countries. Small-scale biofuels can bring many social and environmental benefits at the local level and, cumulatively, their production and utilisation can bring significant trade benefits. QC 20111124

QC 20111123. Poster presented at 2010 KTH Energy Initiative. Competitive renewablegas options-emerging bioenergy segments

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