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Aims To explore how socioeconomic factors and population density may contribute to the geographical variation of incidence of Type 1 diabetes in children in south-eastern Sweden. Method All children diagnosed with Type 1 diabetes in south-eastern Sweden during 1977–2001 were defined geographically to their place of residence and were allocated x and y coordinates in the national grid. The population at risk and socioeconomic data were aggregated in 82 000 200-m squares and geocoded likewise. A socioeconomic index was calculated using a signed χ2 method. Rural–urban gradients were defined by overlay analysis in a geographic information system. Results The incidence during the past 25 years has been rising steadily, particularly in the last 6 years. The incidence was highest in areas with a high proportion of small families, of families with a high family income and better education, and this was found both at the time of diagnosis and at the time of birth. In the rural–urban analysis, the lowest incidence was found in the urban area with > 20 000 inhabitants, where there was also a higher frequency of deprivation. Conclusions Our findings indicate that geographical variations in incidence rates of Type 1 diabetes in children are associated with socioeconomic factors and population density, although other contributing factors remain to be explained.

With the aim to survey the seasonal pattern of diagnosis of type 1 diabetes we included all 1903 children <16 years of age and who had been diagnosed with type 1 diabetes between 1977 and 2001 in the south-east of Sweden. To investigate the seasonal pattern a mixture of two cosine functions was included in a logistic regression model. There was a clear seasonal variation over the years (p < 0.001). Children in the oldest age group (11–15 years) showed the most obvious seasonal variation (p < 0.001). Children with a short duration of symptoms had about the same seasonal variation as children with a long duration. Both children with and without an infection 3 months prior to diagnosis showed significant seasonal variation (p < 0.001) although the seasonal pattern differed between the two groups (p < 0.001). As the incidence of diabetes increased during the 25 years the study period was divided into periods of 5 years and it was only during the two last periods that significant seasonal variation occurred. There is a clear seasonal variation in diagnosis of type 1 diagnosis in children and the results suggest that children with a less aggressive disease process at diagnosis were most responsible for this variation. Children with and without prior infection showed a different seasonal pattern.

Introduction: Treatment of osteoporosis is becoming more effective, but methods to identify patients who are most suitable for investigation and treatment are still being debated. Should any type of fracture have higher priority for investigation of osteoporosis than any other? Is the number of previous fractures useful information? Material and methods: We investigated 303 consecutive women patients between 55 and 75 years of age who had a newly diagnosed low-energy fracture. They answered a questionnaire on previous fractures which also dealt with risk factors. Bone mineral density (BMD) was measured at the hip, lumbar spine, and forearm. Results: The distribution of fracture location was: distal forearm 56%, proximal humerus 12%, vertebra 18%, and hip 13%, all with similar age. Half of the subjects had had at least one previous fracture before the index fracture, 19% had had two previous fractures, and 6% had had three or more previous fractures. Patients with vertebral or hip fracture had lower BMD and had had more previous fractures than patients with forearm or humerus fractures. There was an inverse correlation between number of fractures and BMD. Osteoporosis was present in one-third of patients with forearm fracture, in one-half of those with hip or humerus fracture, and in two-thirds of those with vertebral fracture. Interpretation: Vertebral fractures were the strongest marker of low BMD and forearm fractures the weakest. The number of previous fractures is helpful information for finding the most osteoporotic patient in terms of severity. Investigation of osteoporosis therefore seems warranted in every woman between the ages of 55 and 75 with a recent low-energy fracture, with highest priority being given to those with vertebral, hip, or multiple fractures. Copyright© Taylor & Francis 2007. all rights reserved.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Osteoporosis and fall fractures are increasing problems amongst the elderly. The aim of this study was to explore whether combined population-based and individual interventions directed at risk factors for osteoporosis and falls result in behavioral changes in an elderly population. METHODS: A quasi-experimental design was used for the study. Persons aged >or=65 years were randomly selected in the intervention and control community. An intervention program was managed from the primary health care center and delivered to the community. Health education was designed to increase awareness of risk factors for the development of osteoporosis and falling. Questionnaires about lifestyle, health, previous fractures, safety behavior and physical activity level were distributed at baseline in 1989 and at the follow-ups in 1992 and 1994 in both communities. RESULTS: There was a difference of 17.7% between the dual intervention (receiving both population-based and individual interventions) and the control samples regarding the self-reported use of shoe/cane spikes, and a difference of 20.5% regarding the reported "moderate level" of physical activity in 1994. There was an increase in the number of participants in the dual intervention sample who, at baseline, had not reported equipping their homes with non-slip mats and removing loose rugs but who did report these changes in 1994. The increase in the reported use of shoe/cane spikes in the dual intervention sample was observed mainly for the period 1992-1994. CONCLUSIONS: A public health intervention model, including both population-based and individual interventions, can contribute to behavioral changes in the prevention of falls and changed physical activity patterns amongst elderly people.

Background Bone mineral density (BMD) is used to follow gain or loss of bone mass but cannot detect changes within a short period of time. Biochemical markers of bone turnover may be of value for prediction of individual bone loss. Methods We studied the relation between common inexpensive markers of bone turnover (serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP), osteocalcin (OC), urinary hydroxyproline (OHPr), and calcium (Ca)), BMD, age, and menopause in a combined cross-sectional and longitudinal design comprising 429 pre- and postmenopausal randomly selected women aged 21–79 years (mean 50 years). A follow-up was initiated after 5 years (including 192 of these women), which focused on changes in bone mass and the ability of these four common markers of bone turnover (sampled at baseline) to predict future bone loss. Results A marked increase was observed for all markers at the beginning of menopause. During the postmenopausal period ALP and Ca decreased to near premenopausal levels, while OC and OHPr remained high even 15 years after menopause. We also found inverse correlations at baseline between the bone markers and BMD, independent of the selected marker or skeletal site, r=−0.14 to −0.46, P<0.05. The correlations between ALP, OC, OHPr, and subsequent bone loss over 5 years, was significant for arm, r=−0.23 to −0.36, P<0.01. Baseline levels of all bone markers correlated significantly at group level with the 5-year follow-up of BMD for all sites. The ability of markers to predict individual bone loss was estimated by a multivariate regression model, which included baseline BMD, age, and body mass index as independent variables. ROC analysis showed a validity of approximately 76% for the forearm model, but was lower for the hip (55%) and lumbar spine (65%). Conclusions These data show that the common inexpensive biochemical markers of bone turnover ALP, OC, OHPr, and Ca were related to the current bone mass and, moreover, provides information about future bone loss at, On the day of the defence day the status of this article was a manuscript.

Objective: To estimate the impact of osteoporosis fractures on health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in postmenopausal women. Methods: To compare the impact on HRQOL of different osteoporotic fractures, 600 consecutive women 55-75 years old with a new fracture (inclusion fracture) were invited by mail. After exclusions by preset criteria (high-energy fractures, ongoing osteoporosis treatment, or unwillingness to participate), 303 women were included, 171 (56%) of whom had a forearm, 37 (12%) proximal humerus, 40 (13%) hip, and 55 (18%) vertebral fracture, respectively, and all were investigated and treated according to the current local consensus program for osteoporosis. In addition, HRQOL was evaluated by the SF-36 questionnaire and compared with local, age-matched reference material. Examinations were performed 82 days (median) after the fracture and 2 years later. Results: HRQOL was significantly reduced at baseline regarding all SF-36 domains after vertebral fractures and most after hip fractures, but only regarding some domains after forearm and humerus fracture. After 2 years, improvements had occurred after all types of fractures, and after forearm or humerus fracture, HRQOL was completely normalized in all domains. However, 2 years after hip fracture, HRQOL was still below normal regarding physical function, role-physical and social function, while after vertebral fracture, scores were still significantly lower for all domains, physical as well as mental. Patients with one or more previous fractures before the inclusion fracture had lower HRQOL at baseline and after 2 years, compared with those with no previous fracture. Patients with osteoporosis (T-score < - 2.5 in hip or spine) had lower HRQOL than those with normal BMD. Conclusion: Vertebral and hip fractures have a considerably greater and more prolonged impact on HRQOL than forearm and humerus fractures. The number of fractures was inversely correlated to HRQOL. These differences should be taken i

Study objective: As earlier studies have shown space-time clusters at onset of type 1 diabetes in the south east region of Sweden we investigated if there also has been any geographical clusters of diabetes in this region. Design: The place of residence (coordinates) at the time of diagnosis were geocoded in a geographical information system (GIS). All children diagnosed with type 1 diabetes up to 16 years of age at diagnosis between 1977–1995 were included. The population at risk was obtained directly from the population registry for the respective years and geographical area levels. Setting: South east region of Sweden containing 5 counties, 49 municipalities, and 525 parishes. Main results: A significant geographical variation in incidence rate were found between the municipalities (p<0.001) but not between the counties. The variation became somewhat weaker when excluding the six largest municipalities (p<0.02). In municipalities with increased risk (>35.1/100 000) the major contribution comes from children in age group 6–10 years of age at diagnosis. There were no obvious differences between the age groups in municipalities with decreased risk (<20.1/100 000). Boys and girls had about the same degree of geographical variation. Conclusions: Apart from chance, the most probable explanation for the geographical variation in the risk for children and adolescents to develop type 1 diabetes between the municipalities in the region is that local environmental factors play a part in the process leading to the disease.

An epidemiological study of 15.462 hip fractures in Östergötland 1940-86 showed a large incidence increase mainly due to an increase in age-specific incidence of trochanteric fractures. A trendforecast assuming the same increase in incidence as over the study period and a population forecast according to the official prognosis, predicted 70% more hip fractures in the year 2000 compared to 1985. The different forecasts models were validated for the year 1995 and showed a good correlation between estimated and observed number of fractures, but varied dependent on which fracture and prognosis model that were evaluated. A follow-up investigation of 11.517 hip fractures 1982-96 showed a downturn in incidence of female fractures and a continous increase for males, particularly of trochanteric fractures. A trend brake was thus seen and this continues up to 2010 according to our trendforecasts but may be counteracted by the increasing number of elderly after 2020. Gender ratio changed over time with increasing number of male fractures, more trochanteric fractures relative to cervical (c/t-ratio) and an increasing mean age of the fracture patient. Age specific reference values were established for bone mineral density (BMD) in forearm, lumbar spine and hip after investigation of 429 women 20-80 years, randomly sampled from the general population. Bone density was assessed from cross-sectional data for the various skeletal sites over an almost complete adult life period and these were then compared to values obtained from other studies, densitometry technologies and reference materials. Large discordances were found between the different technologies and reference materials. The outcome of using the T-score proposed by a WHO study group 1994 as a diagnostic cutoff principle for the diagnosis of osteoporosis (T<-2.5) and osteopenia (T<-1 - -2.5) was evaluated by calculating the resulting prevalence in a cohort of 210 women, 70 years of age. The use of different approache

After several reports of increasing hip fracture incidence some studies have suggested a trend-break. In a previous study of hip fractures we forecast a 70% increase in the total number of fractures from 1985 up to year 2000. We therefore studied the incidence trend for the last 15 years and supply a new prognosis up to year 2010. We recorded all incident hip fractures treated in the county of Östergötland, Sweden (≈ 400 000 inhabitants) 1982–96. A total of 11 517 hip fractures in men and women aged 50 years and above were included in the study after cross-validation between a computerized register of radiologic investigations and the hospital records. The projected number of fractures up to year 2010 was estimated by a Poisson regression model, considering both age and year of fracture in every single year 1982–96 for the respective fracture type and gender, and applied to the projected population. The annual number of hip fractures increased by 39% in men and 25% in women during the study period. Amongst men, the age-adjusted incidence of cervical fractures increased from 188 to 220/100 000 and of trochanteric fractures from 138 to 170/100 000. In women the incidence of cervical fractures decreased from 462/100 000 to 418/100 000 and of trochanteric fractures from 407/100 000 to 361/100 000. Cervical/trochanteric fracture incidence rate ratio leveled off, and also the female/male fracture rate ratio declined. A prognosis assuming that the incidence development will continue as during 1982–96, and a population in agreement with the forecast, predicts that the total age- and sex-adjusted number of hip fractures will decrease by 11% up to year 2010 compared with 1996. In women and men, however, a decrease of 19% and an increase of 7% respectively were projected. If the age- and sex-specific incidence remains at the same level as at the end of the study period, no significant change in the total numbers will occur. A trend-break was thus found in hip fracture incidenc

Drinking water disinfection byproducts have been associated with an increased risk for congenital defects including cardiac defects. Using Swedish health registers linked to information on municipal drinking water composition, individual data on drinking water characteristics were obtained for 58,669 women. Among the infants born, 753 had a cardiac defect. The risk for a cardiac defect was determined for ground water versus surface water, for different chlorination procedures, and for trihalomethane and nitrate concentrations. Ground water was associated with an increased risk for cardiac defect when crude rates were analyzed but after suitable adjustments this excess rate was found to be determined by chlorination procedures including chlorine dioxide. Chlorine dioxide appears itself as an independent risk factor for cardiac defects (adjusted odds ratio 1.61 (95%CI 1.00–2.59)). The risk for cardiac defects increased with increasing trihalomethane concentrations (P=0.0005). There was an indicated but statistically nonsignificant excess risk associated with nitrate concentration. The individual risk for congenital cardiac defect caused by chlorine dioxide and trihalomethanes is small but as a large population is exposed to public drinking water, the attributable risk for cardiac defects may not be negligible.

Background. As a part of the Vadstena Osteoporosis Prevention Project, the knowledge of osteoporosis was examined before the intervention program started, after 5 and 10 years. Methods. At baseline (in 1989) 15% of the population in two Swedish municipalities was randomly invited to the study. The participants in the study group were invited for examination by forearm bone densitometry and a questionnaire concerning lifestyle and risk factors for osteoporosis and also knowledge of osteoporosis, while the subjects in the control group were examined only by questionnaire. Follow-ups were made in 1994 and in 1999. Meanwhile education about osteoporosis was given to the study group, to the public, and to various professionals in the study community. Results. There was a difference in the level of knowledge between the groups prior to the intervention. The rate of increment did not differ significantly between the groups for the study period. Previous participants had 0.58 higher score than new participants in the study group in 1994 (P = 0.031) and 0.76 higher score in 1999 (P < 0.001) regarding the total number of correct answers. The women in the study group had 0.63 higher score than the men in 1994 (P = 0.016) and 1.03 higher score in 1999 (P < 0.001) regarding the total number of correct answers. Conclusion. There was no significant effect of a general intervention program concerning the knowledge of osteoporosis in participants in the intervention area compared to the control area.

No abstract available.

Prostate cancer is a growing health problem representing considerable costs. Screening and early curative treatment may reduce morbidity and possibly prevent future escalating costs. However, population screening programmes are generally not well accepted at present due to uncerainty about whether screening for prostate cancer can result in reduced mortality. Evidence from large, randomized, controlled trials is still lacking. The objective of this study was to calculate clinical and economic consequences of general prostate cancer screening based on a limited screening trial in a Swedish community and a decision-tree model. A random selection of 1492 men (50–69 years) were invited to repeated screening in 1987. They have been examined every third year (four rounds). The other 7679 men in the population act as controls. The results show that the total incremental health care costs for prostate cacer will increase by 179 million SEK per year with screening compared to no-screening. The number of detected cases of localized cancer will increase by about 1000, which represents an additional cost of about 158 000 SEK per case. In conclusion, general screening for prostate cancer can be performed with a reasonable cost per detected localized cancer. Information on the long-term effect on life quality and cancer mortality is unknown.

Objective: to identify and link populations and individuals that live within high risk areas. Design: census registers and disease registers which contain data on individuals can only give aggregate statistics relating to postal code districts, town, county or state boundaries. However environmental risk factors rarely, if ever, respect these man-made boundaries. What is needed is a method to rapidly identify individuals who may live within a described area or region and to further identify the disease(s) occurring among these individuals and/or in these areas. Method: this paper describes a method for linking the standard registers available in Sweden, notably the residence-property addresses they contain and the geographical coordinate setting of these, to map the population as a point coverage. Using standard GIS methods this coverage could be linked, merged or intersected with any other map to create new subsets of population. Representation of populations down to the individual level by automatised spatialisation of available census data is in its simplicity a new informatics method which in the designated GIS medium adds a new power of resolution. Results: we demonstrate this using the radon maps provided by the local communes. The Swedish annual population registration records of 1991 for the county ofÖstergötland and the property register available at the Central Statistical Bureau of Sweden formed the main data sources. By coupling the address in the population register to the property register each individual was mapped to the centroid of a property. By intersecting the population coverage with the radon maps, the population living in high, normal or low risk areas was identified and then analysed and stratified by commune, sex and age. The resulting tables can be linked to other databases, e.g. disease registers, to visualise and analyse geographical and related patterns. The methodology can be adapted for use with any other environmental map or small are

We examined 429 women, aged 20–80 years, randomly selected from the population register to establish normal values for bone mineral density (BMD) in Swedish women. BMD of the spine and hip was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA; Hologic QDR 1000) and in the forearm by single photon absorptiometry (SPA; Molsgaard ND-1100). The recalled age of menarche was negatively correlated to BMD at all ages. There was no significant change in BMD from 20–49 years at any site except a slight decline at Ward's triangle. Bone loss was rapid at all sites during the first decade after menopause. Thereafter, BMD declined slowly in the trochanter and total hip but more rapidly in the forearm, femoral neck, and Ward's triangle. BMD in the spine even increased in the eighth decade probably due to osteoarthritis. The average change in forearm BMD during the 15 perimenopausal years comprising mean age for menopause ± 2 SD (43–57 years) was −0.4% per year in premenopausal females and −1.6% per year in postmenopausal females. The corresponding annual percental change was, for the spine, +0.2 and −1.7; neck, −0.7 and −1.7; trochanter, +0.5 and −1.5; and Ward's triangle, −0.1% and −2.2%, respectively. Our normal values for lumbar spine BMD prior to menopause did not differ from published values or the manufacturer's normal values; however, our spine BMD values for the first decade after menopause were significantly lower (≈10%) than in other studies. Our femoral neck BMD values for younger women were, like those of several other groups, significantly lower than the manufacturer's normal values, but our sample of young women in this study was small. The prevalence of osteoporosis, if defined as t score < −2.5 is highly dependent on the sampling of the reference population of young adult women, and also on the choice of skeletal site. Further studies on bone mineral density in healthy young adult women are needed.

Aerial distance from the dependent Primary Health Center is a crude but objective measure of geographical accessibility to Primary Health care facilities. This report describes a method for calculation of distances between the PHC and the population it serves using the data available from the local health authorities and the Swedish Central Statistical Bureau. The Swedish annual population registration records of 1991 and the property register available with the Central Statistical Bureau of Sweden formed the main data sources. By coupling the address in the population register to the property register each individual was mapped to the centroid of a property. The location of the PHCs as well as the areas covered by each were obtained from the local health authorities and mapped. By intersecting the population coverage with the PHC coverage the population for each PHC area was identified. Subsequently the distance to the PHC was calculated for each individual (property centroid). The population maps so generated can be linked to other databases to visualize and analyze the spatial dimension of health and disease. The methodology can be adapted for use with postal code districts, census enumeration tracts, or any other small area.

The incidence of hip fractures in the county of Östergōtland in Sweden has increased dramatically from 1940 to 1986, mainly due to an increase in age-specific incidence of trochanteric fractures. The increase is most pronounced in people over 80 but is present even in age groups down to 50 years. If the age-specific incidence rates continue to increase, and the population of the elderly grows in accordance with the forecast, there will be 70% more hip fractures in the year 2000 than in 1985.

Background: The combined use of bone mineral density, fracture history and other risk markers for fracture is advocated for identifying subjects with high fracture risk. An incident fracture is suggested as an accurate indication for osteoporosis investigation, but there are still insufficient data for grading the priority between ages and types of fractures. We therefore decided to examine a consecutive series of 55-75 year old women with an incident fracture for evaluating a standardized clinical routine program and for studying the covariance between fracture history, bone mineral density and other risk markers. Materila and methods: We invited 600 consecutive women 55-75 years old with an incident newly diagnosed fracture in distal radius forearm, proximal humerus, vertebra or hip. External drop-out was 33%. Of the 400 responders 31 had a high-energy trauma, 62 were on treatment against osteoporosis and 4 were living in other counties and were therefore excluded. The remaining 303 subjects entered the study. A questionnaire on previous fractures and risk factors was enclosed with the invitation to the osteoporosis unit. At a single visit a short history was assessed and physical examination performed as well as a few laboratory investigations. Bone mineral density was measured at the hip, lumbar spine and forearm by DXA (Hologic QDR 4500A). Results: The fracture spectrum was: distal radius 56.4 %, proximal humerus 12.2%, vertebra 18.2% and hip 13.2%. 49% had had at least one previous fracture, 19% at least two previous and 6.3% three or more previous fractures before the recent one. As few spine X-rays were performed, the true prevalence of vertebral fracture is unknown. Patients with fracture in vertebra or hip had lower BMD and more previous fractures than patients with forearm or humerus fracture. The number of previous fractures was inversely correlated to BMD of the hip and forearm, while BMD of the spine had a biphasic relationship. The Odds ratio of havin