Search

A multitude of physical and biological processes on which ecosystems and human societies depend are governed by the climate, and understanding how these processes are altered by climate change is central to mitigation efforts. We developed a set of climate-related variables at as yet unprecedented spatiotemporal detail as a basis for environmental and ecological analyses. We downscaled time series of near-surface relative humidity (hurs) and cloud area fraction (clt) under the consideration of orography and wind as well as near-surface wind speed (sfcWind) using the delta-change method. Combining these grids with mechanistically downscaled information on temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation, we then calculated vapor pressure deficit (vpd), surface downwelling shortwave radiation (rsds), potential evapotranspiration (pet), the climate moisture index (cmi), and site water balance (swb) at a monthly temporal and 30 arcsec spatial resolution globally from 1980 until 2018 (time-series variables). At the same spatial resolution, we further estimated climatological normals of frost change frequency (fcf), snow cover days (scd), potential net primary productivity (npp), growing degree days (gdd), and growing season characteristics for the periods 1981–2010, 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100, considering three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP126, SSP370, SSP585) and five Earth system models (projected variables). Time-series variables showed high accuracy when validated against observations from meteorological stations and when compared to alternative products. Projected variables were also highly correlated with observations, although some variables showed notable biases, e.g., snow cover days. Together, the CHELSA-BIOCLIM+ dataset presented here (https://doi.org/10.16904/envidat.332, Brun et al., 2022) allows improvement to our understanding of patterns and processes that are governed by climate, including the impact of recent and future climate changes on the world's ecosystems and the associated services on societies.

Emerging infectious diseases pose a threat to pollinators. Virus transmission among pollinators via flowers may be reinforced by anthropogenic land-use change and concomitant alteration of plant-pollinator interactions. Here, we examine how species' traits and roles in flower-visitation networks and landscape-scale factors drive key honeybee viruses-black queen cell virus (BQCV) and deformed wing virus-in 19 wild bee and hoverfly species, across 12 landscapes varying in pollinator-friendly (flower-rich) habitat. Viral loads were on average more than ten times higher in managed honeybees than in wild pollinators. Viral loads in wild pollinators were higher when floral resource use overlapped with honeybees, suggesting these as reservoir hosts, and increased with pollinator abundance and viral loads in honeybees. Viral prevalence decreased with the amount of pollinator-friendly habitat in a landscape, which was partly driven by reduced floral resource overlap with honeybees. Black queen cell virus loads decreased with a wild pollinator's centrality in the network and the proportion of visited dish-shaped flowers. Our findings highlight the complex interplay of resource overlap with honeybees, species traits and roles in flower-visitation networks and flower-rich pollinator habitat shaping virus transmission., Competing Interests: Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Climate projections for continental Europe indicate drier summers, increased annual precipitation, and less snowy winters, which are expected to cause shifts in species' distributions. Yet, most regions/countries currently lack comprehensive climate-driven biodiversity projections across taxonomic groups, challenging effective conservation efforts. To address this gap, our study evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the biodiversity of an alpine country of Europe, Switzerland. We used a state-of-the art species distribution modeling approach and species occurrence data that covered the climatic conditions encountered across the full species' ranges to help limiting niche truncation. We quantified the relationship between baseline climate and the spatial distribution of 7291 species from 12 main taxonomic groups and projected future climate suitability for three 30-year periods and two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios (RCP4.5 and 8.5). Our results indicated important effects of projected climate changes on species' climate suitability, with responses varying by the taxonomic and conservation status group. The percentage of species facing major changes in climate suitability was higher under RCP8.5 (68%) compared to RCP4.5 (66%). By the end of the century, decreases in climate suitability were projected for 3000 species under RCP8.5 and 1758 species under RCP4.5. The most affected groups under RCP8.5 were molluscs, algae, and amphibians, while it was molluscs, birds, and vascular plants under RCP4.5. Spatially, by 2070-2099, we projected an overall decrease in climate suitability for 39% of the cells in the study area under RCP8.5 and 10% under RCP4.5, while projecting an increase for 50% of the cells under RCP8.5 and 73% under RCP4.5. The most consistent geographical shifts were upward, southward, and eastward. We found that the coverage of high climate suitability cells by protected areas was expected to increase. Our models and maps provide guidance for spatial conservation planning by pointing out future climate-suitable areas for biodiversity., (© 2024 The Author(s). Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

More efficient methods for extensive biodiversity monitoring are required to support rapid measures to address the biodiversity crisis. While environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding and quantitative PCR (qPCR) methods offer advantages over traditional monitoring approaches, their large-scale application is limited by the time and labour required for developing assays and/or for analysis. CRISPR (clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats) diagnostic technologies (Dx) may overcome some of these limitations, but they have been used solely with species-specific primers, restricting their versatility for biodiversity monitoring. Here, we demonstrate the feasibility of designing species-specific CRISPR-Dx assays in silico within a short metabarcoding fragment using a general primer set, a methodology we term 'ampliscanning', for 18 of the 22 amphibian species in Switzerland. We sub-selected nine species, including three classified as regionally endangered, to test the methodology using eDNA sampled from ponds at nine sites. We compared the ampliscanning detections to data from traditional monitoring at these sites. Ampliscanning was successful at detecting target species with different prevalences across the landscape. With only one visit, we detected more species per site than three traditional monitoring visits (visual and acoustic detections by trained experts), in particular more elusive species and previously undocumented but expected populations. Ampliscanning detected 25 species/site combinations compared to 12 with traditional monitoring. Sensitivity analyses showed that larger numbers of field visits and PCR replicates are more important for reliable detection than many technical replicates at the CRISPR-Dx assay level. Given the reduced sampling and analysis effort, our results highlight the benefits of eDNA and CRISPR-Dx combined with universal primers for large-scale monitoring of multiple endangered species across landscapes to inform conservation measures., (© 2024 The Author(s). Molecular Ecology Resources published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Many species, including humans exhibit a wide range of social behaviors that are crucial for the adaptation and survival of most species. Brain organization and function are shaped by genetic and environmental factors, although their precise contributions have been relatively understudied in the context of artificial selection. We used divergent lines of quail selected on their high versus low level of motivation to approach a group of conspecifics (S + and S-, respectively) to investigate the influence of genetic selection and early social environment on sociability. We observed distinct sex- and brain-region-specific expression patterns of three neuronal markers: mesotocin, and vasotocin, the avian homologues of mammalian oxytocin and vasopressin, as well as aromatase, the enzyme that converts androgens into estrogens. These markers displayed pronounced and neuroanatomically specific differences between S + and S- quail. Additionally, in a second experiment, we assessed the influence of early social environment on social skills in juvenile birds. Mixing S + and S- resulted in more S- males approaching the group without affecting the sociability of S + or other behaviors, suggesting that the early social environment may influence the results of genetic selection. In conclusion, the divergent quail lines offer a valuable model for unraveling the neuronal and behavioral mechanisms underlying social behaviors., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Environmental DNA (eDNA) analysis is a powerful tool for studying biodiversity in forests and tree canopies. However, collecting representative eDNA samples from these high and complex environments remains challenging. Traditional methods, such as surface swabbing or tree rolling, are labor-intensive and require significant effort to achieve adequate coverage. This study proposes a novel approach for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to collect eDNA within tree canopies by using a surface swabbing technique. The method involves lowering a probe from a hovering UAV into the canopy and collecting eDNA as it descends and ascends through branches and leaves. To achieve this, a custom-designed robotic system was developed featuring a winch and a probe for eDNA collection. The design of the probe was optimized, and a control logic for the winch was developed to reduce the risk of entanglement while ensuring sufficient interaction force to facilitate transfer of eDNA onto the probe. The effectiveness of this method was demonstrated during the XPRIZE Rainforest Semi-Finals as 10 eDNA samples were collected from the rainforest canopy, and a total of 152 molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs) were identified using eDNA metabarcoding. We further investigate how the number of probe interactions with vegetation, the penetration depth, and the sampling duration influence the DNA concentration and community composition of the samples.

Periods of large igneous province (LIP) magmatism have shaped Earth's biological and climatic history, causing major climatic shifts and biological reorganizations. The vegetation response to LIP-induced perturbations may affect the efficiency of the carbon-climate regulation system and the post-LIP climate evolution. Using an eco-evolutionary vegetation model, we demonstrate here that the vegetation's climate adaptation capacity, through biological evolution and geographic dispersal, is a major determinant of the severity and longevity of LIP-induced hyperthermals and can promote the emergence of a new climatic steady state. Proxy-based temperature reconstructions of the Permian-Triassic, Triassic-Jurassic, and Paleocene-Eocene hyperthermals match the modeled trajectories of bioclimatic disturbance and recovery. We conclude that biological vegetation dynamics shape the multimillion-year Earth system response to sudden carbon degassing and global warming episodes.

Clownfish (subfamily Amphiprioninae) are an iconic group of coral reef fish that evolved a mutualistic interaction with sea anemones, which triggered the adaptive radiation of the clade. Within clownfishes, the "skunk complex" is particularly interesting. Besides ecological speciation, interspecific gene flow and hybrid speciation are thought to have shaped the evolution of the group. We investigated the mechanisms characterizing the diversification of this complex. By taking advantage of their disjunct geographical distribution, we obtained whole-genome data of sympatric and allopatric populations of the three main species of the complex (Amphiprion akallopisos, A. perideraion and A. sandaracinos). We examined population structure, genomic divergence and introgression signals and performed demographic modelling to identify the most realistic diversification scenario. We excluded scenarios of strict isolation or hybrid origin of A. sandaracinos. We discovered moderate gene flow from A. perideraion to the ancestor of A. akallopisos + A. sandaracinos and weak gene flow between the species in the Indo-Australian Archipelago throughout the diversification of the group. We identified introgressed regions in A. sandaracinos and detected in A. perideraion two large regions of high divergence from the two other species. While we found that gene flow has occurred throughout the species' diversification, we also observed that recent admixture was less pervasive than initially thought, suggesting a role of host repartition or behavioural barriers in maintaining the genetic identity of the species in sympatry., (© 2024 The Authors. Molecular Ecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The conservation and restoration of forest ecosystems require detailed knowledge of the native plant compositions. Here, we map global forest tree composition and assess the impacts of historical forest cover loss and climate change on trees. The global occupancy of 10,590 tree species reveals complex taxonomic and phylogenetic gradients determining a local signature of tree lineage assembly. Species occupancy analyses indicate that historical forest loss has significantly restricted the potential suitable range of tree species in all forest biomes. Nevertheless, tropical moist and boreal forest biomes display the lowest level of range restriction and harbor extremely large ranged tree species, albeit with a stark contrast in richness and composition. Climate change simulations indicate that forest biomes are projected to differ in their response to climate change, with the highest predicted species loss in tropical dry and Mediterranean ecoregions. Our findings highlight the need for preserving the remaining large forest biomes while regenerating degraded forests in a way that provides resilience against climate change., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Ecosystem response to climate change is complex. In order to forecast ecosystem dynamics, we need high-quality data on changes in past species abundance that can inform process-based models. Sedimentary ancient DNA ( sed aDNA) has revolutionised our ability to document past ecosystems' dynamics. It provides time series of increased taxonomic resolution compared to microfossils (pollen, spores), and can often give species-level information, especially for past vascular plant and mammal abundances. Time series are much richer in information than contemporary spatial distribution information, which have been traditionally used to train models for predicting biodiversity and ecosystem responses to climate change. Here, we outline the potential contribution of sed aDNA to forecast ecosystem changes. We showcase how species-level time series may allow quantification of the effect of biotic interactions in ecosystem dynamics, and be used to estimate dispersal rates when a dense network of sites is available. By combining palaeo-time series, process-based models, and inverse modelling, we can recover the biotic and abiotic processes underlying ecosystem dynamics, which are traditionally very challenging to characterise. Dynamic models informed by sed aDNA can further be used to extrapolate beyond current dynamics and provide robust forecasts of ecosystem responses to future climate change. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological novelty and planetary stewardship: biodiversity dynamics in a transforming biosphere'.

Islands have been used as model systems to study ecological and evolutionary processes, and they provide an ideal set-up for validating new biodiversity monitoring methods. The application of environmental DNA metabarcoding for monitoring marine biodiversity requires an understanding of the spatial scale of the eDNA signal, which is best tested in island systems. Here, we investigated the variation in Actinopterygii and Elasmobranchii species composition recovered from eDNA metabarcoding along a gradient of distance-to-reef in four of the five French Scattered Islands in the Western Indian Ocean. We collected surface water samples at an increasing distance from reefs (0 m, 250 m, 500 m, 750 m). We used a metabarcoding protocol based on the 'teleo' primers to target marine reef fishes and classified taxa according to their habitat types (benthic or pelagic). We investigated the effect of distance-to-reef on β diversity variation using generalised linear mixed models and estimated species-specific distance-to-reef effects using a model-based approach for community data. Environmental DNA metabarcoding analyses recovered distinct fish species compositions across the four inventoried islands and variations along the distance-to-reef gradient. The analysis of β - diversity variation showed significant taxa turnover between the eDNA samples on and away from the reefs. In agreement with a spatially localised signal from eDNA, benthic species were distributed closer to the reef than pelagic ones. Our findings demonstrate that the combination of eDNA inventories and spatial modelling can provide insights into species habitat preferences related to distance-to-reef gradients at a small scale. As such, eDNA can not only recover large compositional differences among islands but also help understand habitat selection and distribution of marine species at a finer spatial scale., Competing Interests: The authors declare there are no conflicts of interests., (© 2024 The Authors. Ecology and Evolution published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The Convention on Biological Diversity seeks to conserve at least 30% of global land and water areas by 2030, which is a challenge but also an opportunity to better preserve biodiversity, including flowering plants (angiosperms). Herein, we compiled a large database on distributions of over 300,000 angiosperm species and the key functional traits of 67,024 species. Using this database, we constructed biodiversity-environment models to predict global patterns of taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional diversity in terrestrial angiosperms and provide a comprehensive mapping of the three diversity facets. We further evaluated the current protection status of the biodiversity centers of these diversity facets. Our results showed that geographical patterns of the three facets of plant diversity exhibited substantial spatial mismatches and nonoverlapping conservation priorities. Idiosyncratic centers of functional diversity, particularly of herbaceous species, were primarily distributed in temperate regions and under weaker protection compared with other biodiversity centers of taxonomic and phylogenetic facets. Our global assessment of multifaceted biodiversity patterns and centers highlights the insufficiency and unbalanced conservation among the three diversity facets and the two growth forms (woody vs. herbaceous), thus providing directions for guiding the future conservation of global plant diversity., (© 2024. Science China Press.)

Earth's long-term climate is driven by the cycling of carbon between geologic reservoirs and the atmosphere-ocean system. Our understanding of carbon-climate regulation remains incomplete, with large discrepancies remaining between biogeochemical model predictions and the geologic record. Here, we evaluate the importance of the continuous biological climate adaptation of vegetation as a regulation mechanism in the geologic carbon cycle since the establishment of forest ecosystems. Using a model, we show that the vegetation's speed of adaptation to temperature changes through eco-evolutionary processes can strongly influence global rates of organic carbon burial and silicate weathering. Considering a limited thermal adaptation capacity of the vegetation results in a closer balance of reconstructed carbon fluxes into and out of the atmosphere-ocean system, which is a prerequisite to maintain habitable conditions on Earth's surface on a multimillion-year timescale. We conclude that the long-term carbon-climate system is more sensitive to biological dynamics than previously expected, which may help to explain large shifts in Phanerozoic climate.

To meet the COP15 biodiversity framework in the European Union (EU), one target is to protect 30% of its land by 2030 through a resilient transnational conservation network. The European Alps are a key hub of this network hosting some of the most extensive natural areas and biodiversity hotspots in Europe. Here we assess the robustness of the current European reserve network to safeguard the European Alps' flora by 2080 using semi-mechanistic simulations. We first highlight that the current network needs strong readjustments as it does not capture biodiversity patterns as well as our conservation simulations. Overall, we predict a strong shift in conservation need through time along latitudes, and from lower to higher elevations as plants migrate upslope and shrink their distribution. While increasing species, trait and evolutionary diversity, migration could also threaten 70% of the resident flora. In the face of global changes, the future European reserve network will need to ensure strong elevation and latitudinal connections to complementarily protect multifaceted biodiversity beyond national borders., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

New technologies for monitoring biodiversity such as environmental (e)DNA, passive acoustic monitoring, and optical sensors promise to generate automated spatiotemporal community observations at unprecedented scales and resolutions. Here, we introduce 'novel community data' as an umbrella term for these data. We review the emerging field around novel community data, focusing on new ecological questions that could be addressed; the analytical tools available or needed to make best use of these data; and the potential implications of these developments for policy and conservation. We conclude that novel community data offer many opportunities to advance our understanding of fundamental ecological processes, including community assembly, biotic interactions, micro- and macroevolution, and overall ecosystem functioning., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests D.W.Y. is a cofounder of NatureMetrics, which provides commercial eDNA services and is a minor shareholder in the NatureSpace Partnership. No further conflicts of interest to declare., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Madagascar exhibits high endemic biodiversity that has evolved with sustained and stable rates of speciation over the past several tens of millions of years. The topography of Madagascar is dominated by a mountainous continental rift escarpment, with the highest plant diversity and rarity found along the steep, eastern side of this geographic feature. Using a process-explicit model, we show that precipitation-driven erosion and landward retreat of this high-relief topography creates transient habitat organization through multiple mechanisms, including catchment expansion, isolation of highland remnants, and formation of topographic barriers. Habitat isolation and reconnection on a million-year timescale serves as an allopatric speciation pump creating the observed biodiversity.