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Aim: To conduct an indirect treatment comparison (ITC) of the relative efficacy of brigatinib and alectinib for progression-free survival in people with tyrosine kinase inhibitor (TKI)-naive ALK-positive non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Methods: Final aggregate and patient-level data from the ALTA-1L trial comparing brigatinib to crizotinib and published aggregate data from ALEX (comparing alectinib to crizotinib) were contrasted using Bucher ITC and matching-adjusted indirect comparisons (MAICs). Results: No statistically significant differences were identified between brigatinib and alectinib in reducing the risk of disease progression overall and in patients with baseline central nervous system metastases. Conclusion: Brigatinib appeared similar to alectinib in reducing risk of disease progression for people with TKI-naive ALK-positive NSCLC.

Aim: To compare real-world effectiveness/safety of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants and vitamin K antagonists among patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation. Materials & methods: A systematic review of electronic databases yielded 7661 citations published from January 2013 to January 2020. Fifty-five studies were included in Bayesian network meta-analyses of hazard ratios. Results & conclusion: In comparison with vitamin K antagonists, apixaban, dabigatran and rivaroxaban were associated with a reduced risk of stroke or systemic embolism, ischemic stroke, intracranial hemorrhage and all-cause mortality. Apixaban, dabigatran and edoxaban, but not rivaroxaban, were associated with a reduced risk of major bleeding. This study confirmed the effectiveness and safety of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants for the treatment of non-valvular atrial fibrillation in real-world settings, consistent with clinical trial evidence.

To compare the efficacy and safety of abobotulinumtoxinA (aboBoNT-A) and onabotulinumtoxinA (onaBoNT-A) for the treatment of refractory neurogenic detrusor overactivity (NDO), using an indirect treatment comparison (ITC). A systematic literature review was used to identify randomized controlled trials (RCTs) that evaluated botulinum toxin type A for the treatment of refractory NDO. Treatments were compared using a Bucher ITC approach. Efficacy outcomes were reduction in number of weekly urinary incontinence (UI) episodes at 6, 12, and 24 weeks of follow-up. The safety outcome was the proportion of patients with treatment-emergent urinary tract infections (TE-UTIs) during follow-up. Subgroup/sensitivity analyses were performed to investigate the impact of heterogeneity. Fifteen studies of botulinum toxin type A were identified. Among these, onaBoNT-A 200 U was the only botulinum toxin type A considered an appropriate comparator for aboBoNT-A 600 U and 800 U. As such, six RCTs that evaluated onaBoNT-A or aboBoNT-A were included in the ITC. In base-case analyses, there were no statistically significant differences between aboBoNT-A and onaBoNT-A in terms of UI episodes or TE-UTIs. Numerically, the trend favored aboBoNT-A (either dose) for all endpoints and time points. At 12 and 24 weeks, the difference in reduction of UI episodes per week was considered clinically relevant when comparing aboBoNT-A 800 U with onaBoNT-A 200 U, but not when comparing the lower dose of aboBoNT-A (600 U) with onaBoNT-A 200 U. Results from subgroup/sensitivity analyses were consistent with the base case. Heterogeneity across studies was observed; however, strong consistency of trends across analyses suggests the impact of heterogeneity is low. There may be potential advantages of aboBoNT-A over onaBoNT-A, in terms of UI reduction, in patients with refractory NDO. More confirmatory studies are needed owing to the sparsity of current evidence. Neurogenic detrusor overactivity (NDO) is a condition in which the bladder muscle wall is overactive and does not function normally. This can lead to urinary incontinence (i.e. accidental leakage of urine). NDO may also cause urinary tract infections and upper urinary tract damage if it is left untreated or if treatment does not work (i.e. refractory NDO). Botulinum toxin is a treatment that relaxes muscles in patients with refractory NDO, so they have less chance of experiencing urinary incontinence. This study used results from clinical trials to compare two types of botulinum toxin – abobotulinumtoxinA (aboBoNT-A) and onabotulinumtoxinA (onaBoNT-A) – to see if one works better than the other. Clinical trials are experiments to assess how well treatments work by giving different treatments to different patients and observing the results. When there is no clinical trial that compares the two treatments you are interested in, it is possible to combine results from a number of different clinical trials instead. This is known as an indirect treatment comparison. We used an indirect treatment comparison to compare aboBoNT-A and onaBoNT-A for the treatment of refractory NDO. Results showed that aboBoNT-A may be more effective than onaBoNT-A in reducing the frequency of urinary incontinence episodes. On average, patients treated with aboBoNT-A had at least three fewer episodes of urinary incontinence per week than those treated with onaBoNT-A. These results suggest that patients treated with aboBoNT-A could have a better quality of life than those treated with onaBoNT-A.

Introduction Many studies have been conducted worldwide to estimate herpes zoster (HZ) incidence rates. We synthesized studies of HZ incidence rates in the general population using meta-analysis models. Methods A random effects meta-analysis was conducted to estimate HZ incidence from a published worldwide systematic literature review (SLR) including only individuals aged 50 years and older. Meta-regression was used to explore whether variability in incidence rates could be explained by a combination of study-specific characteristics including age, gender, continent and year of study data. The impact of adding additional covariates—case detection method (general practitioner surveillance, healthcare database, sentinel network, etc.), case definition (medical record-based, self-reported), study design (retrospective passive surveillance, retrospective active surveillance, etc.), incidence type (cumulative incidence/1000 persons or incidence rate/1000 person-years), patient type (outpatients or in- and out-patients) and latitude to the base model—was also assessed. Results Sixty-one records from 59 studies were included in the analysis: 25, 20, 11 and 5 from Europe, North America, Asia and Oceania, respectively. There was variation in study methodology and outcomes. Heterogeneity of incidence rates was greatest among studies conducted in Asia. Meta-analysis showed that incidence increased with age, was lower in males compared to females, tended to be lower in Europe and North America compared to Asia and Oceania and increased with year of study data. The data-driven meta-regression model included continent, year of study data, gender, age and an age × gender interaction term. The difference in incidence between males and females was greater in younger ages (e.g., 50–59) compared to older age groups (e.g., 80+). None of the additional covariates contributed significantly to the model. Conclusion Incidence rates were shown to vary by age, gender, continent and year of study data. Graphical Plain Language Summary Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40121-021-00567-8.

Introduction Many targeted, systemic therapies have been developed for treatment of moderate-to-severe psoriasis (PsO). A network meta-analysis (NMA) allows for comparison between treatments not directly compared in randomized controlled trials (RCT). This study’s objective was to compare the short-term (10–16 weeks) clinical efficacy according to the Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI) among approved biologic treatments for moderate-to-severe PsO using a novel (enhanced) NMA model. Methods A systematic literature review (SLR) of RCTs for patients with moderate-to-severe PsO was conducted. English publications in MEDLINE, Embase, and The Cochrane Library up to March 2019 were searched. An enhanced multinomial Bayesian NMA was performed to simultaneously adjust for baseline risk and utilize the conditional nature of the PASI (50, 75, 90, and 100) levels. The model relaxes typical constraints that all treatments must have the same ranks across PASI levels. Results The SLR resulted in 319 relevant publications, of which 72 publications from 73 RCTs reporting 10- to 16-week data for at least one PASI response level (30,314 total patients) were included. Interleukin (IL) inhibitors (risankizumab, ixekizumab, brodalumab, secukinumab, and guselkumab) were the best performing treatments for achieving all PASI levels. Etanercept was outperformed by the other subcutaneous tumor necrosis factor α inhibitors. Application of an enhanced NMA model that allowed treatment rankings to differ by PASI level tested the robustness of results of previous NMAs in PsO. Conclusion The results of this model confirmed that IL inhibitors are likely the best short-term treatment choices for improving all PASI levels. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s13555-021-00602-z.

Given the lack of head‐to‐head studies of systemic therapies in moderate‐to‐severe atopic dermatitis (AD), network meta‐analyses (NMAs) can provide comparative efficacy and safety data to inform clinical decision‐making. In this NMA, eligible randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published before 24 October 2019 were identified by a systematic literature review. Short‐term (12–16 weeks) efficacy (Investigator’s Global Assessment [IGA] and Eczema Area and Severity Index [EASI] responses), patient‐reported outcomes (PROs) and safety data from each trial were abstracted and analysed separately for monotherapy and combination therapy (systemic plus topical anti‐inflammatory therapy). RCTs were analysed in fixed‐effects and random‐effects Bayesian NMA models. Overall, 19 phase 2 and phase 3 RCTs of abrocitinib, baricitinib, dupilumab, lebrikizumab, nemolizumab, tralokinumab and upadacitinib were included. In monotherapy RCTs, upadacitinib 30 mg once daily (QD) had the numerically highest efficacy (83.6% achieved ≥50% improvement in EASI [EASI‐50 response]), followed by abrocitinib 200 mg QD (74.6%), upadacitinib 15 mg QD (70.5%), dupilumab 300 mg every 2 weeks (Q2W) (63.4%) and abrocitinib 100 mg QD (56.7%). Similar trends in EASI‐75 and EASI‐90 response were observed. In combination therapy RCTs, abrocitinib 200 mg QD had the highest EASI‐50 (86.6%), followed by dupilumab 300 mg Q2W (82.4%) and abrocitinib 100 mg QD (79.7%). Similar findings were observed for IGA response and PROs. In monotherapy and combination therapy RCTs, the probability of treatment‐emergent adverse events (TEAEs) was higher among all active treatments than with placebo (except for dupilumab 300 mg Q2W [odds ratio (OR), 0.96; 95% credible interval (CrI), 0.45–2.18] and abrocitinib 100 mg QD [OR, 0.95; 95% CrI, 0.35–2.66] in combination therapy RCTs), although active treatments did not significantly differ from one another. Abrocitinib, dupilumab and upadacitinib were consistently the most effective systemic therapies in adult and adolescent patients with AD, with no significant TEAE differences in short‐term RCTs.

Biologic treatments are increasingly being used in the management of moderate to severe plaque psoriasis (PSO). Bimekizumab is a selective inhibitor of both interleukin (IL)-17A and IL-17F approved for the treatment of moderate to severe PSO. Although bimekizumab trials provide comparisons to secukinumab, adalimumab and ustekinumab, there are no further head-to-head comparisons of bimekizumab to other biologics. This network meta-analysis (NMA) aimed to compare the short-term efficacy of bimekizumab versus other biologic systemic therapies for moderate to severe PSO.A systematic literature review was conducted to identify randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in patients with moderate to severe PSO. MEDLINE, Embase, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and the Database of Systematic Reviews and PsycINFO were searched on July 1, 2020. An enhanced multinomial Bayesian NMA model was used to evaluate the comparative efficacy in 50%, 75%, 90% and 100% improvement from baseline Psoriasis Area and Severity Index (PASI 50/75/90/100) at 10-16 weeks. The model was also adjusted for baseline risk, given the variable placebo responses across the trials.Eighty-six RCTs (including 34,476 patients) were included in the NMA. IL-17 and IL-23 inhibitors were the most effective treatments across all PASI levels. At 10-16 weeks, bimekizumab had the highest probability of achieving PASI 75 (92.3%), PASI 90 (84.0%) and PASI 100 (57.8%). Bimekizumab demonstrated statistical superiority over all biologics in achieving PASI 90 and PASI 100 thresholds. For PASI 75, the benefit of bimekizumab was statistically significant compared to all other treatments except risankizumab and ixekizumab.This analysis demonstrated that IL-17 and IL-23 inhibitors were highly effective in achieving short-term improvement among patients with moderate to severe PSO. Patients receiving bimekizumab were significantly more likely to achieve PASI 90 or PASI 100 within 10-16 weeks of the first injection than all other biologics.

Network meta-analysis was used to derive estimates of the relative efficacy of inclisiran, evolocumab, alirocumab, bempedoic acid, and ezetimibe in patients with hypercholesterolemia and/or at increased cardiovascular risk due to elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol taking maximum tolerated dose statins. Clinical trials published through February 2021 comparing percent change from baseline in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were identified via a systematic review. Bayesian network meta-analyses were performed for patients with atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease and/or high cardiovascular risk on maximally tolerated statins in the base case, which included 23 trials. Results from the base-case analyses demonstrated that inclisiran, evolocumab, and alirocumab provide superior efficacy over placebo, bempedoic acid, and ezetimibe in terms of reduction in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Inclisiran was also comparable to alirocumab (mean difference: 0.78% [95% CrI: −8.35, 9.88]) and evolocumab (8.16%, [95% CrI: −1.82, 18.49]). Findings of a scenario which also included trials conducted in patients with heterozygous familial hypercholesterolemia were consistent with the base case. There was evidence of statistical heterogeneity across the included trials, roughly equivalent to variation of 5–10% change in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, suggesting that any differences between treatments that were greater than 5–10% are generalizable. This study provides insight regarding the comparative efficacy of drugs for which no head-to-head trials exist and suggests that inclisiran, alirocumab, and evolocumab are expected to provide similar clinically meaningful improvements in low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in patients with hypercholesterolemia on maximally tolerated statins who are at increased cardiovascular risk.

The optimal dosing schedule to maintain the effectiveness of sunitinib for metastatic renal cell carcinoma – while reducing toxicity – remains an important clinical question. A meta-analysis of randomized trials and observational studies assessed the relative treatment effects of 4/2, 2/1 and transitional-2/1 schedules on outcomes and adverse events using Bayesian network meta-analysis methods. Treatment with 2/1 reduced the risk of disease progression or death by 25% and had lower odds of hand-and-foot syndrome compared with the 4/2. A numerical but not ‘statistical’ benefit in progression-free survival was observed with the transitional-2/1 compared with 4/2. Alternative schedules with the 2/1 and transitional-2/1 may be more clinically beneficial in metastatic renal cell carcinoma than the 4/2 schedule.

Aim: To evaluate the comparative efficacy and safety of gemtuzumab ozogamicin + daunorubicin-cytarabine (GO + DA) versus common induction therapies for newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia. Materials & methods: A network meta-analysis following a systematic literature review. Results: In base-case analyses, GO + DA was associated with significantly greater overall survival and relapse-free survival versus most comparators, and similar rates of complete remission versus all evaluated comparators. Similar findings were seen in the subgroup analyses. Grade 3+ bleeding and hepatic events were higher with GO + DA versus some comparators, consistent with GO's profile. No differences were found for other evaluated outcomes. Conclusion: GO + DA provides significant overall survival and relapse-free survival benefit versus evaluated induction regimens for newly diagnosed acute myeloid leukemia.

Treatment history influences the outcomes of subsequent therapies in patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) and needs to be considered when deciding which treatment to use next. To assess the relative merits of immunomodulatory (IMiD)-free treatments, a systematic literature review (SLR) was conducted to identify relevant randomized controlled trials in patients with RRMM. A network meta-analysis (NMA) was performed to assess various IMiD-free regimens, including bortezomib and dexamethasone (Vd)-based treatments, and to explore differences in patient outcomes. The SLR identified 52 articles, from which four trials were ultimately included in the base-case NMA. The NMA showed that daratumumab plus Vd (DVd) provided a significant advantage in prolonging progression-free survival. Similar trends were observed for overall survival and overall response. Across all outcomes, DVd had the highest probability of being the best treatment. These findings suggest that DVd may provide superior clinical outcomes for RRMM patients suitable for IMiD-free regimens.

Abstract Eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (EGPA) is a rare disease associated with vascular inflammation and multisystem organ damage. The literature reporting EGPA incidence or prevalence is limited. We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis to describe the incidence, prevalence, and disease burden associated with EGPA. Real-world, observational, English-language studies in MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, and Embase up to 6 June, 2019, were included. A single investigator screened all identified titles/abstracts and extracted data; an additional, independent investigator repeated the screening and validated the extracted data. A random-effects meta-analysis was conducted to generate pooled estimates for EGPA incidence and prevalence. Data from 100 eligible publications were extracted (32 with incidence/prevalence data, 65 with morbidity/healthcare resource data; 3 with both types of data). Significant evidence of between-study heterogeneity for reported incidence (p = 0.0013–0.0016) and prevalence (p = 0.0001–0.0006) estimates was observed. Global and European pooled estimates (95% confidence interval) of EGPA incidence were 1.22 (0.93, 1.60) and 1.07 (0.94, 1.35) cases per million person-years, respectively; global and European pooled estimates (95% confidence interval) for EGPA prevalence were 15.27 (11.89, 19.61) and 12.13 (6.98, 21.06) cases per million individuals, respectively. The proportions of patients experiencing relapses, or who had nasal polyps or severe asthma, varied considerably across studies. EGPA healthcare resource use was high, with inpatient admissions and emergency department visits reported for 17–42% and 25–42% of patients, respectively. Our results indicate that although global and European EGPA incidence and prevalence is low, the associated disease burden is substantial. Key points• We performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of real-world, observational studies describing the incidence, prevalence, and disease burden associated with eosinophilic granulomatosis with polyangiitis (EGPA).• Based on meta-analysis data from 35 eligible studies reporting incidence and prevalence, the incidence and prevalence of EGPA were low (globally 1.22 cases per million person-years and 15.27 cases per million individuals, respectively).• Among the 49 studies with morbidity and/or healthcare resource data, most reported a large proportion of patients with EGPA relapses and comorbidities of nasal polyps and severe asthma.• Healthcare resource use was also high among patients with EGPA in these studies, with inpatient admissions and emergency department visits reported for 17–42% and 25–42% of patients, respectively. Taken together, these data indicate the substantial disease burden associated with EGPA.

e19514 Background: Zanubrutinib, a next-generation Bruton’s tyrosine kinase inhibitor (BTKi), demonstrated superior overall response rate and a trend toward improved progression-free survival (PFS) as compared to ibrutinib in patients with relapsed or refractory (R/R) chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) in the phase 3 ALPINE trial (NCT03734016) based on interim analysis. However, its comparative efficacy with other treatments is not known. The goal of this study was to estimate the relative efficacy of zanubrutinib compared with standard treatments for R/R CLL through a network meta-analysis (NMA). Methods: The efficacy of zanubrutinib from ALPINE (study of zanubrutinib and ibrutinib in patients with R/R CLL was compared to ibrutinib, acalabrutinib, bendamustine and rituximab (BR), and venetoclax + rituximab (V+R) using data from 4 RCTs. Relevant RCTs were identified using a systematic literature review. A network was constructed that composed RCTs (ALPINE, ELEVATE-RR [NCT02477696], ASCEND [NCT02970318], and MURANO [NCT02005471]). Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA) models were used to simultaneously synthesize hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% credible intervals (CrIs) for investigator-assessed PFS and overall survival (OS) to estimate the relative efficacy of zanubrutinib versus comparators of interest. An assumption of constant hazard ratio was applied in the NMA analysis. Analyses were performed using well-established codes published by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) Decision Support Unit and were implemented with OpenBUGS (version 3.2.3). Results: The NMA suggested a significant improvement in PFS for zanubrutinib over acalabrutinib (HR=0.52, 95% CrI [0.30, 0.90]), ibrutinib (0.47, [0.29, 0.76]), and BR (0.13, [0.06, 0.26]). Zanubrutinib had a numerically better PFS than V+R (0.69, [0.32, 1.46]) while not reaching statistical significance. For OS, NMA results showed a trend favoring zanubrutinib over acalabrutinib (0.75, [0.35, 1.59]), ibrutinib (0.62, [0.31, 1.22]), and BR (0.52, [0.21, 1.24]). The difference was not statistically significant with wide CrIs, suggesting a high uncertainty as inherent limitation of the analysis. Conclusions: This NMA reports the first summary of comparative PFS of available treatments for R/R CLL. Indirect treatment comparisons suggest PFS on zanubrutinib may be superior to other BTKis and immunochemotherapies in R/R CLL patients.[Table: see text]

e19526 Background: Zanubrutinib is an oral, highly selective, next-generation Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor. Efficacy of zanubrutinib was compared with bendamustine + rituximab (BR) in adult patients with treatment-naïve (TN) chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) in the phase 3 SEQUOIA trial (NCT03336333). However, efficacy of zanubrutinib compared with other frontline CLL treatments remains unknown. The goal of this network meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) was to estimate the relative efficacy of zanubrutinib compared with standard frontline treatments for CLL. Methods: A total of 4 relevant RCTs were identified by a targeted literature review conducted throughout January 2022, CLL11 (NCT01010061), ALLIANCE (NCT01886872), MABLE (NCT01056510), and SEQUOIA. A feasibility assessment was performed to ensure that RCTs included within each population strata did not differ with respect to effect modifiers including presence of mutation, age, del11, and del17 status. A network was constructed for the composed 4 RCTs to compare the efficacy of zanubrutinib with bendamustine + rituximab, chlorambucil + obinutuzumab, chlorambucil + rituximab, and ibrutinib in patients with previously untreated CLL. Bayesian NMA models were conducted to simultaneously synthesize hazard ratio (HR) and 95% credible intervals (CI) for investigator-assessed progression-free survival (PFS). A constant hazard ratio was assumed in the NMA analysis. Statistical analyses were performed using codes suggested by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence. Results: The efficacy results of the NMA indicated a statistically significant improvement in PFS for zanubrutinib over bendamustine + rituximab (HR=0.42; [95% CI=0.27, 0.65]), chlorambucil + obinutuzumab (0.45 [0.23, 0.86]), and chlorambucil + rituximab (0.22 [0.12, 0.41]). Zanubrutinib achieved comparable PFS to ibrutinib (1.07 [0.59, 1.94]). Conclusions: This is the first NMA to compare the efficacy of zanubrutinib with all commonly utilized first-line treatment for TN CLL. Results from this indirect treatment comparison suggested that the PFS for zanubrutinib may be statistically significantly better than immunochemotherapy. Findings from this study require validation with further large scale RCTs with longer follow up time.[Table: see text]

IntroductionEmpagliflozin, a sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor, is approved in the USA to reduce risk of cardiovascular (CV) death in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and established CV disease, based on EMPA-REG OUTCOME (Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients) trial results. Empagliflozin reduced major adverse CV event (MACE) by 14%, CV death by 38%, and hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) by 35% vs placebo, each on top of standard of care (SoC). SGLT-2 inhibitors canagliflozin and dapagliflozin have also been compared with placebo, all on top of SoC, in CV outcome trials. In the CANVAS (Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study) Program, canagliflozin reduced MACE by 14% and HHF by 33%. Dapagliflozin reduced HHF by 27% in the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial (Multicenter Trial to Evaluate the Effect of Dapagliflozin on the Incidence of Cardiovascular Events). This analysis estimated the cost-effectiveness of empagliflozin versus canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, or SoC, in US adults with T2DM and established CV disease.Research design and methodsIndividual patient-level discrete-event simulation was conducted to predict time-to-event for CV and renal outcomes, and specific adverse events over patients’ lifetimes. Occurrence of events in EMPA-REG OUTCOME was estimated based on event-free survival curves with time-dependent covariates. An HR for canagliflozin or dapagliflozin versus empagliflozin on each clinical event was estimated from published CANVAS, DECLARE-TIMI 58, and EMPA-REG OUTCOME data using indirect treatment comparison. Public sources provided US costs and utilities.ResultsThe model predicted longer survival for empagliflozin versus canagliflozin, dapagliflozin, and SoC mainly due to direct reduction in CV death. Empagliflozin dominated canagliflozin, yielding more quality-adjusted life years (QALYs; 0.38) at a lower cost (−US$306). Compared with dapagliflozin and SoC, empagliflozin yielded 0.50 and 0.84 incremental QALYs at US$1517 and US$27 539 incremental costs, yielding incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of US$3054/QALY and US$32 848/QALY, respectively.ConclusionsEmpagliflozin was projected to dominate canagliflozin and be highly cost-effective compared with dapagliflozin and SoC using US healthcare costs.

Classical clinical endpoints [e.g., objective response rate (ORR), disease control rate (DCR), and progression-free survival (PFS)] may not be appropriate for immune checkpoint blockers (ICBs). We evaluated correlations between these endpoints and overall survival (OS) for surrogacy. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of solid tumors patients treated with ICBs published between 01/2005 and 03/2017, and congress proceedings (2014–2016) were included. Arm-level analyses measured 6-month PFS rate to predict 18-month OS rate. Comparison-level analyses measured ORR odds ratio (OR), DCR OR, and 6-month PFS hazard ratio (HR) to predict OS HR. A pooled analysis for single-agent ICBs and ICBs plus chemotherapy vs chemotherapy was conducted. Studies of single-agent ICBs vs chemotherapy were separately analyzed. 27 RCTs involving 61 treatment arms and 10,300 patients were included. Arm-level analysis showed higher 6- or 9-month PFS rates predicted better 18-month OS rates for ICB arms and/or chemotherapy arms. ICB arms had a higher average OS rate vs chemotherapy for all PFS rates. Comparison-level analysis showed a nonsignificant/weak correlation between ORR OR (adjusted R2 = − 0.069; P = 0.866) or DCR OR (adjusted R2 = 0.271; P = 0.107) and OS HR. PFS HR correlated weakly with OS HR in the pooled (adjusted R2 = 0.366; P = 0.005) and single-agent (adjusted R2 = 0.452; P = 0.005) ICB studies. Six-month PFS HR was highly predictive of OS HR for single-agent ICBs (adjusted R2 = 0.907; P

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We thank the authors of the recent letter to the editor [1] for their thoughtful review of our article, ‘An indirect treatment comparison of the efficacy of patisiran and tafamidis for the treatmen...

This study quantified mortality associated with serious infections caused by carbapenem-resistant (CRE) and carbapenem-susceptible Enterobacteriaceae (CSE). A systematic literature review was conducted, evaluating outcomes in hospitalized patients with CRE infections from a blood, urinary, pulmonary, or intra-abdominal source. A meta-analysis (MA) calculating odds ratios (ORs) for mortality was performed. Twenty-two studies met the criteria for inclusion in the MA: 12 included mortality data for CRE vs CSE populations. Compared with CSE, CRE was associated with a significantly higher risk of overall mortality (OR, 3.39; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.35–4.89), as was monotherapy (vs combination therapy) treatment of patients with CRE infections (OR, 2.19; 95% CI, 1.00–4.80). These results document the increased mortality associated with serious CRE infections compared with CSE infections among hospitalized adults. It will be important to reevaluate the mortality in CRE and CSE populations, especially among patients who receive early appropriate therapy, as new antibiotics become available.

Background Previous network meta-analyses combined studies of immunomodulatory drug (IMiD)–containing and IMiD-free regimens, despite a lack of head-to-head randomized controlled trials to robustly link them. However, patients with relapsed or refractory multiple myeloma (RRMM) treated with IMiD-containing regimens differ from those treated with IMiD-free regimens, especially relating to treatment history, which is an important treatment-effect modifier requiring clinical consideration when evaluating the most appropriate subsequent treatment options. A need exists to separately assess the efficacy of treatment regimens for patients who are suitable candidates for IMiD-containing and IMiD-free regimens. The presented analyses will enable clinicians to assess the best regimens to use in patients suitable for IMiD-containing regimens. Materials and Methods We used a Bayesian network meta-analysis to compare IMiD-containing regimens in patients with RRMM. Additionally, subgroup analyses were conducted stratified by previous therapy line, previous bortezomib therapy, and previous lenalidomide therapy. Results The results indicated that triplet combinations are more effective than doublet combinations. Of the triplet combinations, daratumumab, lenalidomide, dexamethasone (DRd) was significantly better in improving progression-free survival in patients with RRMM than were other IMiD-containing regimens (lenalidomide, dexamethasone [Rd]: hazard ratio [HR], 0.37; carfilzomib, Rd: HR, 0.54; elotuzumab, Rd: HR, 0.54; ixazomib, Rd: HR, 0.50). Similar trends were observed for overall survival and overall response. DRd showed the greatest probability of being the best treatment for all clinical efficacy outcomes. The subgroup analyses results were consistent with the base-case results. Conclusion In patients with RRMM who are suitable for an IMiD-containing regimen, DRd showed clear advantages in survival and response outcomes compared with other IMiD-containing regimens.

Background: Hereditary transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis (hATTR amyloidosis) is a progressive, life-threatening disease. Until recently, tafamidis was the only approved pharmacotherapy. Patisiran significantly improved polyneuropathy and quality of life (QoL) in the phase III APOLLO trial. In the absence of direct comparisons, this analysis aimed to evaluate the comparative efficacy of tafamidis and patisiran in hATTR amyloidosis with polyneuropathy. Research design and methods: Randomized controlled trial evidence for tafamidis was identified by systematic literature review. Indirect treatment comparisons were performed using the standard pairwise Bucher method for endpoints used in both APOLLO and the tafamidis Fx-005 trial: change from baseline in Neuropathy Impairment Score-lower limbs (NIS-LL), Norfolk QoL-Diabetic Neuropathy questionnaire (QoL-DN), NIS-LL response, and mBMI vs. placebo. Inter-trial population differences were assessed by sensitivity analysis. Results: The base-case analysis (FAP Stage 1 APOLLO patients vs. intent-to-treat Fx-005 population) suggested patisiran had a greater treatment effect vs. tafamidis for all endpoints, with significant improvements in mean change in NIS-LL (–5.49) and QoL-DN (–13.10) from baseline to Month 18. Similar trends were observed in all sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: In the absence of direct comparisons, this analysis suggests patisiran has a greater treatment effect than tafamidis in patients with hATTR amyloidosis with polyneuropathy.

ABSTRACT Background: Nintedanib plus docetaxel has proven an overall survival benefit over docetaxel monotherapy in second-line treatment of non-small-cell lung cancer of adenocarcinoma histology in the LUME-Lung 1 pivotal trial. No published trials have previously compared nintedanib plus docetaxel with agents – other than docetaxel – that are approved second-line treatments for non-small-cell lung cancer. Methods: The relative efficacy of nintedanib plus docetaxel versus second-line agents was evaluated by conducting a network meta-analysis of progression-free survival and overall survival. Results: Nine suitable studies were identified. The estimated probability of nintedanib plus docetaxel being the best treatment with regard to overall survival was 70% (versus 16% for pemetrexed, 10% for docetaxel and 3% for erlotinib). Results for progression-free survival were similar. Conclusion: In patients with advanced non-small-cell lung cancer of adenocarcinoma histology, results suggest that nintedanib plus docetaxel offers clinical benefit compared with docetaxel alone, when used as second-line treatment, and suggests that this combination may also add clinical benefit compared with erlotinib in this patient group.

Aim: A systematic literature review and network meta-analysis were conducted to determine the relative efficacy and safety of interventions for treatment-naive chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients, as comparative evidence is scarce. Materials & methods: Relative treatment effects of progression-free survival, overall survival and safety outcomes were estimated via network meta-analysis based on data identified via systematic literature review. Results: Ibrutinib was superior in all pairwise comparisons for progression-free survival (probability to be better [P] range: overall population: 69–100%; fludarabine-ineligible population: 69–100%) and overall survival (P range: overall: 89–100%; fludarabine-ineligible: 91–100%) and had the highest probability of being best for all outcomes. Conclusion: Ibrutinib provides superior benefit in survival and safety compared with other front-line treatments of chronic lymphocytic leukemia.

Rate and rhythm control are two well established treatment objectives for atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. While symptom reduction is a primary treatment goal, therapeutic practice related to cardioversion varies by region and patient, with several precautions associated with the use of current therapies. No comprehensive literature review on the relative efficacy of existing cardioversion approaches compared to newly available therapies has been conducted. A systematic literature review and meta-analysis were undertaken to evaluate the efficacy of pharmacologic therapies in eliciting cardioversion within 2 and 8–24 h among patients with recent-onset, short duration AF. Eligible studies included randomized controlled trials in which cardioversion rates were evaluated in at least 2 treatment groups. Bayesian mixed-treatment comparisons estimated odds ratios (95% credible intervals) for successful cardioversion. Results within 2 h showed vernakalant IV, propafenone IV and flecainide (IV and oral) were more efficacious in pair-wise comparisons to placebo. Results were mixed in analyses comparing efficacy rates between 8 and 24 h. Few adverse events were reported, with the most common being bradycardia and hypotension. In pair-wise comparisons of active treatment arms to one another, results suggest vernakalant IV, propafenone IV and flecainide appear to be effective in achieving rapid cardioversion in patients with short duration AF compared to other agents. Application of these findings to clinical practice need to account for the variable comorbidity profiles of patients, important determinants in the selection of appropriate therapy for individual patients. Though best practice methods were used, further research comparing treatments through direct head-to-head comparisons may be warranted to confirm these findings and further inform clinical practice.

A systematic literature review and meta-analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of prophylaxis with palivizumab on mortality and morbidity associated with respiratory syncytial virus infection in infants at high risk (≤ 35 wks of gestational age, chronic lung disease, or congenital heart disease).MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Current Contents were used. MEDLINE was searched from January 1, 1990 to May 16, 2007. The bibliographies of accepted studies and recent reviews and proceedings from the past 2 yrs were searched to identify additional relevant studies.Randomized controlled trials and prospective or retrospective cohort studies evaluating all-cause and respiratory syncytial virus-specific mortality, respiratory syncytial virus hospitalizations, and health care use in infants at high risk for respiratory syncytial virus infection receiving prophylaxis with palivizumab.Data elements from each accepted study were extracted by one researcher and confirmed by a second researcher. Differences were resolved before data entry and analysis.A total of 2473 citations were screened and ten comparative studies of palivizumab prophylaxis evaluating15,000 infants were included. Comparisons of mortality and hospitalization outcomes between infant groups using prophylaxis and not using prophylaxis were made using meta-analyses.Prophylaxis and nonprophylaxis infant groups appeared to be comparable at baseline. All-cause mortality during the respiratory syncytial virus season was 12 of 6380 (0.19%) for infants with prophylaxis vs. 33 of 8182 (0.53%) for infants without prophylaxis (Peto odds ratio, 0.30; 95% confidence interval, 0.17-0.55). Only five respiratory syncytial virus-specific deaths were reported, and the majority of the studies did not report respiratory syncytial virus-related deaths. The rate of respiratory syncytial virus hospitalization was significantly lower among preterm infants with prophylaxis compared with those without prophylaxis (4.1% vs. 10.4%; odds ratio, 0.35; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.47). Prophylaxis with palivizumab was associated with a reduction in all-cause mortality and respiratory syncytial virus hospitalization among preterm infants at high risk. Additional research on cause of death among infants at high risk is needed.

Purpose Uncertain short- and long-term cancer risks with anti-TNF therapies is a concern, and led to a recent black box warning. This meta-analysis, requested by the European Medicines Agency, aimed at better assessing short-term risks by using meta-analytic techniques based on individual patient data from all corporate-sponsored randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of adalimumab, etanercept, and infliximab. Methods All 74 RCTs of TNF inhibitors of at least 4 weeks duration were provided to independent investigators, including case narratives for events occurring between trial start until 30 days after planned end of treatment and indicating a possible cancer. Relative risks were estimated using Bayesian piecewise exponential models. Results One hundred thirty (0.84%) of 15 418 individuals randomized to anti-TNF therapy were diagnosed with cancer, compared to 48 (0.64%) of 7486 individuals randomized to comparators. The relative risks associated with all anti-TNF were 0.99 (95%CI 0.61–1.68) for cancers excluding non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC), and 2.02 (95%CI 1.11–3.95) for NMSC. There were indications of differences in the relative risks for the three anti-TNF drugs, but also of differences across the cancer rates in the three comparator arms for adalimumab, etanercept, and infliximab. Conclusions Despite a reassuring overall short-term risk, we could neither refute nor verify that individual anti-TNF therapies affect the short-term clinical emergence of cancer. Despite representing the best available evidence, statistical precision, and differences in baseline cancer risk and reporting detail between trials of adilumumab, etanercept, and infliximab hampered distinction of drug-specific from trial effects, illustrating the challenges in safety-assessments using RCT meta-analyses. Long-term risk assessment requires observational studies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Summary Purpose To conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the incidence of congenital malformations (CMs) and other pregnancy outcomes as a function of in utero anti-epileptic drug (AED) exposure. Methods We performed a systematic literature review to identify all published registries and cohort studies of births from pregnant women with epilepsy (WWE) that reported incidence of CMs. Overall incidences were calculated using a random effects model. Results The review included 59 studies that met inclusion/exclusion criteria, involving 65,533 pregnancies in WWE and 1,817,024 in healthy women. The calculated incidence of births with CM in WWE [7.08%; 95% CIs 5.62, 8.54] was higher than healthy women [2.28%; CIs 1.46, 3.10]. Incidence was highest for AED polytherapy [16.78%; CIs 0.51, 33.05]. The AED with the highest CM incidence was valproate, which was 10.73% [CIs 8.16, 13.29] for valproate monotherapy. Conclusions Results of this systematic literature review suggest that the overall incidence of CMs in children born of WWE is approximately threefold that of healthy women. The risk is elevated for all AED monotherapy and further elevated for AED polytherapy compared to women without epilepsy. The risk was significantly higher for children exposed to valproate monotherapy and to polytherapy of 2 or more drugs when the polytherapy combination included phenobarital, phenytoin, or valproate. Further research is needed to delineate the specific risk for each individual AED and to determine underlying mechanisms including genetic risk factors.

This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis of the large body of data describing the Swedish adjustable gastric band (SAGB) and Lap-Band (LB).A systematic review was performed that included screening of studies published in any language (January 1, 1998 through April 30, 2006) identified through MEDLINE, Current Contents, or the Cochrane Library. Studies withor =10 SAGB or LB patients reportingor =30-day efficacy or safety outcomes were eligible for review; the data were extracted from the accepted studies. A weighted means analysis and random-effects meta-analysis of efficacy outcomes of interest were conducted.A total of 4592 bariatric surgery studies met the initial criteria. Of these studies, 129 (28,980 patients) were accepted (33 SAGB and 104 LB studies); most had a retrospective single-center design. For 4273 patients (36 treatment groups) in 33 SAGB studies and 24,707 patients (111 groups) in 104 LB studies, the mean baseline age (39.1-40.2 yr), body mass index (43.8-45.3 kg/m2), and gender (women 79.2-82.5%) were similar. A laparoscopic technique was used inor =88% and a pars flaccida technique inor =41% of both groups. Early mortality was equivalent for SAGB/LB (or =.1%). The 3-year mean SAGB and LB excess weight loss (56.36% and 50.20%, respectively) and body mass index reduction (-11.99 and -11.81 kg/m2, respectively) from baseline were statistically significant (P.05), as was the resolution of diabetes (61.45% and 60.29%, respectively) and hypertension (62.95% and 43.58%, respectively). Although scant and inconsistently reported data precluded direct statistical comparisons, the complication rates for the 2 devices appeared comparable. In 8 directly comparative studies, meta-analysis found a significantly greater absolute weight loss (P.05) with the SAGB at 2 years (48.4 versus 41.9 kg, mean difference -4.84, 95% confidence interval -9.47 to -0.22), although no difference was found in the percentage of excess weight loss or change in body mass index.In a systematic review of the published world SAGB and LB data, at 1, 2, and 3 years, the weight loss, resolution of diabetes and hypertension, and complications appeared comparable.

The objective of this study was to quantify the incidence of thromboembolic events (specifically, deep vein thromboses [DVT] and pulmonary embolism [PE]) in patients with cancer, and to examine the effects of a major clinical trial design and execution factors on those incidence rates.The study included a systematic review of Medline, Current Contents, and accepted study bibliographies, as well as an analysis of studies. Studies included both longitudinal studies (prospective and retrospective) published in the English language between January 1990 and October 2005. Studies of patients with cancer that reported the incidence of thromboembolic events (DVT, PE, and total venous thromboembolic events [VTE]) were eligible for inclusion. Incidence of these events was calculated by study design, surveillance type (active or passive), length of follow-up, and other treatment risk factors. Incidence rates were estimated by random effects Poisson meta-regression modeling.One hundred and eighty-three studies met all inclusion criteria. Incidence rates of all outcomes (DVT, PE, and total VTE) were 3-55 times higher for active surveillance than for passive surveillance. Studies with a follow-up time/= 6 months reported thromboembolic event rates that were 3-26 times higher than study groups with a follow-up time6 months. Additionally, the incidence rates for all outcome events when using passive surveillance were 3-12 times higher in non-randomized clinical trials (non-RCTs) than in RCTs.These results provide a benchmark for the incidence of thromboembolic events in patients with cancer. Factors such as study design, length of follow-up, and method of case ascertainment (type of surveillance - active or passive) must be considered when interpreting thromboembolic incidence rates. This review is comprehensive in its inclusion of all studies with a scientific objective of examining the risk of thromboembolic events in patients with cancer from 1990 to 2005. However, other studies published prior to 1990, more recently than 2005, or with other scientific objectives in their research may also provide supportive information to these risk estimates.

Computer-assisted surgery (CAS) has been advocated as a means to improve limb and prosthesis alignment and assist in ligament balancing in total knee arthroplasty (TKA). Thus, we sought to examine alignment outcomes in CAS vs conventional TKA. A systematic review of literature from 1990 to 2007 was performed. Direct comparison of alignment outcomes was performed using random effects meta-analyses. Twenty-nine studies of CAS vs conventional TKA were identified, and included mechanical axis malalignment of greater than 3 degrees occurred in 9.0% of CAS vs 31.8% of conventional TKA patients. The risk of greater than 3 degrees malalignment was significantly less with CAS than conventional techniques for mechanical axis and frontal plane femoral and tibial component alignment. Tibial and femoral slope both showed statistical significance in favor of CAS at greater than 2 degrees malalignment. Meta-analysis of alignment outcomes for CAS vs conventional TKA indicates significant improvement in component orientation and mechanical axis when CAS is used.

Blood phenylalanine (Phe) levels provide a practical and reliable method for the diagnosis and monitoring of metabolic status in patients with phenylketonuria (PKU). To assess the reliability of blood Phe levels as a predictive biomarker of clinical outcomes in the development of treatments for PKU, a systematic literature review and meta-analysis of published trials of PKU, which included Phe level and neurological and dietary compliance outcome measures, was conducted. Within-study correlations between Phe level and intelligence quotient (IQ) were extracted from 40 studies. Significant, proportional correlations were found during critical periods (from 0 to 12 years of age) for early-treated patients with PKU (r=-0.35; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -0.44 to -0.27), where each 100 micromol/l increase in Phe predicted a 1.3- to 3.1-point reduction in IQ. Similar significant correlations were observed between IQ and mean lifetime Phe level for early-treated patients (r=0.34; 95% CI: -0.42 to -0.25), where each 100 micromol/l increase in Phe predicted a 1.9- to 4.1-point reduction in IQ. Moderate correlations were found between concurrent Phe level and IQ for early-treated patients. In conclusion, these results confirm a significant correlation between blood Phe level and IQ in patients with PKU, and support the use of Phe as a predictive biomarker for IQ in clinical trials.

Background This study investigated the relationship between changes in lung function (as measured by forced expiratory volume in one second [FEV1]) and the St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ) and economically significant outcomes of exacerbations and health resource utilization, with an aim to provide insight into whether the effects of COPD treatment on lung function and health status relate to a reduced risk for exacerbations. Methods A systematic literature review was conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials to identify randomized controlled trials of adult COPD patients published in English since 2002 in order to relate mean change in FEV1 and SGRQ total score to exacerbations and hospitalizations. These predictor/outcome pairs were analyzed using sample-size weighted regression analyses, which estimated a regression slope relating the two treatment effects, as well as a confidence interval and a test of statistical significance. Results Sixty-seven trials were included in the analysis. Significant relationships were seen between: FEV1 and any exacerbation (time to first exacerbation or patients with at least one exacerbation, p = 0.001); between FEV1 and moderate-to-severe exacerbations (time to first exacerbation, patients with at least one exacerbation, or annualized rate, p = 0.045); between SGRQ score and any exacerbation (time to first exacerbation or patients with at least one exacerbation, p = 0.0002) and between SGRQ score and moderate-to-severe exacerbations (time to first exacerbation or patients with at least one exacerbation, p = 0.0279; annualized rate, p = 0.0024). Relationships between FEV1 or SGRQ score and annualized exacerbation rate for any exacerbation or hospitalized exacerbations were not significant. Conclusions The regression analysis demonstrated a significant association between improvements in FEV1 and SGRQ score and lower risk for COPD exacerbations. Even in cases of non-significant relationships, results were in the expected direction with few exceptions. The results of this analysis offer health care providers and payers a broader picture of the relationship between exacerbations and mean change in FEV1 as well as SGRQ score, and will help inform clinical and formulary-making decisions while stimulating new research questions for future prospective studies.

BACKGROUND: In 2010 the COPD Foundation established the COPD Biomarkers Qualification Consortium (CBQC) as a partnership between the Foundation, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and the pharmaceutical industry to pool publicly-funded and industry data to develop innovative tools to facilitate the development and approval of new therapies for COPD. We present data from the initial project seeking regulatory qualification of fibrinogen as a biomarker for the stratification of COPD patients into clinical trials. METHODS: This analysis pooled data from 4 publicly-funded studies and 1 industry study into a common database resulting in 6376 individuals with spirometric evidence of COPD. We used a threshold of 350 mg/dL to determine high vs. low fibrinogen, and determined the subsequent risk of hospitalizations from exacerbations and death using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: High fibrinogen levels at baseline were present in 2853 (44.7%) of individuals with COPD. High fibrinogen was associated with an increased risk of hospitalized COPD exacerbations within 12 months (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.39-1.93) among participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC), the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), and the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study. High fibrinogen was associated with an increased risk of death within 36 months (HR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.62-2.31) among all participants. CONCLUSIONS: Fibrinogen levels ≥ 350 mg/dL identify COPD individuals at an increased risk of exacerbations and death and could be a useful biomarker for enriching clinical trials in the COPD population. BACKGROUND: In 2010 the COPD Foundation established the COPD Biomarkers Qualification Consortium (CBQC) as a partnership between the Foundation, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA), and the pharmaceutical industry to pool publicly-funded and industry data to develop innovative tools to facilitate the development and approval of new therapies for COPD. We present data from the initial project seeking regulatory qualification of fibrinogen as a biomarker for the stratification of COPD patients into clinical trials. METHODS: This analysis pooled data from 4 publicly-funded studies and 1 industry study into a common database resulting in 6376 individuals with spirometric evidence of COPD. We used a threshold of 350 mg/dL to determine high vs. low fibrinogen, and determined the subsequent risk of hospitalizations from exacerbations and death using Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: High fibrinogen levels at baseline were present in 2853 (44.7%) of individuals with COPD. High fibrinogen was associated with an increased risk of hospitalized COPD exacerbations within 12 months (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.64; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.39-1.93) among participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study (ARIC), the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), and the Evaluation of COPD Longitudinally to Identify Predictive Surrogate Endpoints (ECLIPSE) study. High fibrinogen was associated with an increased risk of death within 36 months (HR: 1.94; 95% CI: 1.62-2.31) among all participants. CONCLUSIONS: Fibrinogen levels ≥ 350 mg/dL identify COPD individuals at an increased risk of exacerbations and death and could be a useful biomarker for enriching clinical trials in the COPD population.

Objective: To examine the relationship between international normalized ratio (INR) and outcomes (major bleeding events and strokes) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) receiving anticoagulation with warfarin. Methods: A systematic review and metaanalysis of studies published in the English language between January 1, 1985, and October 30, 2002, was performed. MEDLINE (PubMed), Current Contents, and relevant reference lists were searched. Studies enrolling patients with nonvalvular AF receiving warfarin anticoagulation were eligible for inclusion if they reported stroke and/or major bleeding events in relation to INR, or time spent in therapeutic range. The risk of bleeds in overanticoagulated patients (INR > 3) and the risk of strokes in underanticoagulated patients (INR 2, was associated with an odds ratio (OR) for ischemic events of 5.07 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.92 to 8.80). An INR > 3, compared with an INR 3) are significantly higher relative to patients with AF maintained within the recommended INR of 2 to 3. However, the published data are sparse, heterogeneous, and primarily reported from clinical trials. More studies evaluating clinical outcomes in relation to INR are needed, especially in a real-world setting. (CHEST 2004; 126:1938–1945) Abbreviations: AF atrial fibrillation; CI confidence interval; INR international normalized ratio; OR odds ratio; RCT randomized clinical trial; TIA transient ischemic attack; UCS uncontrolled case series Learning Objectives: 1. To recognize that the INR below 2.0 was associated with a 5-fold increase in the risk of stroke in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation. 2. To understand that an INR over 3 increased the risk of major bleeding 3-fold.