Search

We aimed to investigate sex-specific associations between cardiovascular risk factors and atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk using machine learning. We studied 258,279 individuals (132,505 [51.3%] men and 125,774 [48.7%] women) without documented ASCVD who underwent national health screening. A random forest model was developed using 16 variables to predict the 10-year ASCVD in each sex. The association between cardiovascular risk factors and 10-year ASCVD probabilities was examined using partial dependency plots. During the 10-year follow-up, 12,319 (4.8%) individuals developed ASCVD, with a higher incidence in men than in women (5.3% vs. 4.2%, P < 0.001). The performance of the random forest model was similar to that of the pooled cohort equations (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, men: 0.733 vs. 0.727; women: 0.769 vs. 0.762). Age and body mass index were the two most important predictors in the random forest model for both sexes. In partial dependency plots, advanced age and increased waist circumference were more strongly associated with higher probabilities of ASCVD in women. In contrast, ASCVD probabilities increased more steeply with higher total cholesterol and low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels in men. These sex-specific associations were verified in the conventional Cox analyses. In conclusion, there were significant sex differences in the association between cardiovascular risk factors and ASCVD events. While higher total cholesterol or LDL cholesterol levels were more strongly associated with the risk of ASCVD in men, older age and increased waist circumference were more strongly associated with the risk of ASCVD in women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Recommendations on physical activity (PA) for adults with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) are not well established. We investigated the association of PA intensity with mortality in the general adult HCM population.Methods: A nationwide population-based cohort of individuals with HCM who underwent health check-ups including questionnaires on PA levels were identified from the years 2009 to 2016 in the National Health Insurance Service database. Subjects who reported no PA at baseline were excluded. To estimate each individual's PA level, the PA score (PAS) was calculated based on the self-reported questionnaires, and the study population was categorised into three groups according to tertiles of PAS. The associations of PAS with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality were analysed.Results: A total of 7666 participants (mean age 59.5 years, 29.9% were women) were followed up for a mean 5.3±2.0 years. All-cause and cardiovascular mortality progressively decreased from the lowest to the highest tertiles of PA intensity: 9.1% (4.7%), 8.9% (3.8%) and 6.4% (2.7%), respectively (p-for-trend=0.0144 and 0.0023, respectively). Of note, compared with the middle PA group, the highest PA group did not have an increased risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (HR 0.78, (95% CI 0.63 to 0.95) and HR 0.75 (95% CI 0.54 to 1.03), respectively). All subgroup and sensitivity analyses consistently showed that all-cause and cardiovascular mortality did not increase with higher PA levels.Conclusions: Moderate-to-vigorous-intensity PA, in a middle-aged population of patients with HCM, was associated with progressive reduction of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality. The impact of vigorous-intensity PA on a younger age group requires further investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Optimal medical treatment can lead to improvement in left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) in patients with heart failure with reduced EF (HFrEF). We investigated the characteristics, predictors, and outcomes of HFrEF according to the 1-year LVEF following angiotensin receptor-neprilysin inhibitors therapy (ARNI)., Methods and Results: Using the STRATS-HF-ARNI (Strain for Risk Assessment and Therapeutic Strategies in Patients With Heart Failure Treated With Angiotensin Receptor-Neprilysin Inhibitor) registry, we identified 1074 patients with HFrEF who took ARNI and underwent baseline and 1-year echocardiography. Patients were classified as HF with improved ejection fraction (HFimpEF) and persistent HFrEF (perHFrEF) (1-year LVEF >40% and ≤40%). The primary and secondary outcomes were all-cause and cardiac mortality from the 1-year follow-up. Among 1074 included patients, 498 (46.4%) had HFimpEF, and 576 (53.6%) had perHFrEF. Older age, male sex, and large LV end-diastolic volumes were positive predictors of perHFrEF, whereas atrial fibrillation and high systolic blood pressure were identified as inverse predictors. Patients with HFimpEF showed lower all-cause and cardiac mortality rates (both log-rank P <0.001). In the multivariable analysis, perHFrEF (hazard ratio, 2.402 [95% CI, 1.251-4.610]; P =0.008) was an independent predictor of poor outcomes. The risk of all-cause mortality decreased as the 1-year LVEF increased up to 40%; however, no additional risk reduction was observed beyond 40%. Compared with patients taking renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors in the STRATS-AHF (Strain for Risk Assessment and Therapeutic Strategies in Patients With Acute Heart Failure) registry, those in the STRATS-HF-ARNI registry demonstrated better outcomes in both HFimpEF and perHFrEF., Conclusions: Patients with HFimpEF had better prognosis than those with perHFrEF, and ARNI treatment in HFrEF could be more beneficial than renin-angiotensin-aldosterone system inhibitors for both HFimpEF and perHFrEF., Registration: URL: https://www.who.int/clinical-trials-registry-platform; Unique identifier: KCT0008098.

Background: Hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) is a heterogeneous disorder with varying risks of clinical outcomes, including sudden cardiac death (SCD). We aimed to identify distinct phenotypes among patients with HCM in relation to SCD risk factors, interpret their clinical characteristics, and examine their outcomes., Methods and Results: This retrospective study analyzed 1231 consecutive patients with HCM from 2 tertiary hospitals. We performed latent class analysis to categorize patients into phenotypic groups. Three distinct phenotypic groups were identified using latent class analysis. Group 1 (n=554) consisted of young patients with HCM with minimal SCD risk factors and favorable cardiac remodeling. Group 2 (n=114) comprised young patients with HCM and a high prevalence of SCD risk factors, whereas Group 3 (n=563) included older patients (median age, 68 years). Over a median 6.5-year follow-up, 34 SCD-related events, 131 cardiovascular events, 133 all-cause mortality events, and 70 noncardiovascular mortality events were observed. Group 2 exhibited the highest rate of SCD-related events (5-year SCD rate: Group 1 versus 2 versus 3: 0.8% versus 8.2% versus 4.0%, respectively, P <0.001), and cardiovascular events were more frequent in Groups 2 and 3 compared with Group 1. All-cause and noncardiovascular mortality were the most frequent in Group 3. A simplified decision tree was developed for the straightforward assignment of phenotypic group membership, demonstrating fair concordance., Conclusions: This study identified 3 distinct clinical phenotypes in patients with HCM, each associated with different SCD risks and outcomes. Data-driven phenotyping of patients with HCM offers effective risk stratification and may optimize patient management.

Background: Patients with osteoporosis demonstrate increased vascular calcification but the effect of osteoporosis treatments on vascular calcification remains unclear. The present study aimed to examine whether coronary or aortic calcification are influenced by denosumab and alendronic acid treatment., Methods and Results: In a double-blind randomized controlled SALTIRE2 (Study Investigating the Effect of Drugs Used to Treat Osteoporosis on the Progression of Calcific Aortic Stenosis) trial, patients with aortic stenosis were randomized 2:1:2:1 to denosumab, placebo injection, alendronic acid, or placebo capsule. Participants underwent serial imaging with computed tomography and 18F-sodium fluoride positron emission tomography for the assessment of vascular calcium burden and calcification activity, respectively. We report the prespecified secondary analyses of 24-month change in coronary calcium score, and 12-month changes in thoracic aorta calcium score, coronary and aortic 18F-sodium fluoride activity. One hundred fifty patients with aortic stenosis (72±8 years; 21% female) were randomized to denosumab (n=49), alendronic acid (n=51), and placebo (injection n=25, capsule n=25). There were no differences in change in coronary calcium scores between placebo (16 [-64 to 148] Agatston units) and either denosumab (94 [0-212] Agatston units, P =0.24) or alendronic acid (34 [-62 to 134], P =0.99). There were no differences in change in thoracic aorta calcium scores between placebo (132 [22-512] Agatston units) and either denosumab (118 [11-340], P =0.75) or alendronic acid (116 [26-498] Agatston units, P =0.62). There were no differences in changes in coronary or aortic 18F-sodium fluoride activity between treatment groups., Conclusions: Neither alendronic acid nor denosumab are associated with changes in the activity or progression of coronary or aortic calcification. Osteoporosis treatments do not appear to have major impact on vascular calcification of atherosclerosis., Registration: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02132026.

Introduction: Various strategies aim to better assess risks and refine prevention for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), who vary in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, the prognostic value of personality and its association with lifestyle factors remain elusive., Research Design and Methods: We identified 8794 patients with T2DM from the UK Biobank database between 2006 and 2010 and followed them up until the end of 2021. We assessed personality traits using the Big Five proxies derived from UK Biobank data: sociability, warmth, diligence, curiosity, and nervousness. Healthy lifestyle behaviors were determined from information about obesity, smoking status, and physical activity. The primary outcome was a composite of incident CVD, including myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke (IS), atrial fibrillation (AF), and heart failure (HF)., Results: During a median follow-up of 13.6 years, a total of 2110 patients experienced CVDs. Among personality traits, diligence was significantly associated with a reduced risk of primary and secondary outcomes. The adjusted HRs with 95% CIs were: composite CVD, 0.93 (0.89-0.97); MI 0.90 (0.82-1.00); IS 0.83 (0.74-0.94); AF 0.92 (0.85-0.98); HF 0.84 (0.76-0.91). Healthy lifestyle behaviors significantly reduced the risk of composite CVDs in groups with high and low diligence. The findings of a structural equation model showed that diligence directly affected the risk of the primary outcome or indirectly by modifying lifestyle behaviors., Conclusion: This study revealed which personality traits can influence CVD risk during T2DM and how patients might benefit from adopting healthy lifestyle behaviors in relation to personality., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Aims: The outcomes of mitral valve replacement/repair (MVR) in severe degenerative mitral regurgitation (MR) patients depend on various risk factors. We aimed to develop a risk prediction model for post-MVR mortality in severe degenerative MR patients using machine learning., Methods and Results: Consecutive severe degenerative MR patients undergoing MVR were analysed (n = 1521; 70% training/30% test sets). A random survival forest (RSF) model was constructed, with 3-year post-MVR all-cause mortality as the outcome. Partial dependency plots were used to define the thresholds of each risk factor. A simple scoring system (MVR-score) was developed to stratify post-MVR mortality risk. At 3 years following MVR, 90 patients (5.9%) died in the entire cohort (59 and 31 deaths in the training and test sets). The most important predictors of mortality in order of importance were age, haemoglobin, valve replacement, glomerular filtration rate, left atrial dimension, and left ventricular (LV) end-systolic diameter. The final RSF model with these six variables demonstrated high predictive performance in the test set (3-year C-index 0.880, 95% confidence interval 0.834-0.925), with mortality risk increased strongly with left atrial dimension >55 mm, and LV end-systolic diameter >45 mm. MVR-score demonstrated effective risk stratification and had significantly higher predictability compared to the modified Mitral Regurgitation International Database score (3-year C-index 0.803 vs. 0.750, P = 0.034)., Conclusion: A data-driven machine learning model provided accurate post-MVR mortality prediction in severe degenerative MR patients. The outcome following MVR in severe degenerative MR patients is governed by both clinical and echocardiographic factors., Competing Interests: Conflict of interest: None declared., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)