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Knowledge of exposure to a wide range of chemicals, and the spatio-temporal variability thereof, is urgently needed in the context of protecting and restoring aquatic ecosystems. This paper discusses a computational material flow analysis to predict the occurrence of thousands of man-made organic chemicals on a European scale, based on a novel temporally and spatially resolved modelling framework. The goal was to increase understanding of pressures by emerging chemicals and to complement surface water monitoring data. The ambition was to provide a first step towards a “real-life” mixture exposure situation accounting for as many chemicals as possible. Comparison of simulated concentrations and chemical monitoring data for 226 substance/basin combinations showed that the simulated concentrations were accurate on average. For 65% and 90% of substance/basin combinations the error was within one and two orders of magnitude respectively. An analysis of the relative importance of uncertainties revealed that inaccuracies in use volume or use type information contributed most to the error for individual substances. To resolve this, we suggest better registration of use types of industrial chemicals, investigation of presence/absence of industrial chemicals in wastewater and runoff samples and more scientific information exchange.

Surface water concentrations of 54 pharmaceuticals were predicted for seven major Swedish rivers and the Stockholm City area basins using the STREAM-EU model. These surface water concentrations were used to predict the ecotoxicological impact resulting from the exposure of aquatic organisms to this mixture of 54 pharmaceuticals. STREAM-EU model results indicated that <10 substances were present at median annual water concentrations greater than 10 with highest concentrations occurring mostly in the more densely populated area of the capital city, Stockholm. There was considerable spatial and temporal variability in the model predictions (1-3 orders of magnitude) due to natural variability (e.g. hydrology, temperature), variations in emissions and uncertainty sources. Local mixture ecotoxicological pressures based on acute EC50 data as well as on chronic NOEC data, expressed as multi-substance potentially affected fraction of species (msPAF), were quantified in 114 separate locations in the water bodies. It was estimated that 5% of the exposed aquatic species would experience exposure at or above their acute EC50 concentrations (so-called acute hazardous concentration for 5% of species, or aHC5) at only 7% of the locations analyzed (8 out of 114 locations). For the evaluation based on chronic NOEC concentrations, the chronic HC5 (cHC5) is exceeded at 27% of the locations. The acute mixture toxic pressure was estimated to be predominantly caused by only three substances in all waterbodies: Furosemide, Tramadol and Ibuprofen. A similar evaluation of chronic toxic pressure evaluation logically demonstrates that more substances play a significant role in causing a higher chronic toxic pressure at more sites as compared to the acute toxic pressure evaluation. In addition to the three substances contributing most to acute effects, the chronic effects are predominantly caused by another five substances: paracetamol, diclofenac, ethinylestradiol, erythromycin and ciproflo

The European Union Water Framework Directives aims at achieving good ecological status in member states’ water bodies. Insufficient ecological status could be the result of different interacting stressors, among them the presence of many thousands of chemicals. The diagnosis of the likelihood that these chemicals negatively affect the ecological status of surface waters or human health, and the subsequent development of abatement measures usually relies on water quality monitoring. This gives an incomplete picture of chemicals’ contamination, due to the limited number of monitoring stations, samples and substances. Information gaps thus limit the possibilities to protect against and effectively manage chemicals in aquatic ecosystems. The EU FP7 SOLUTIONS project has developed and validated a collection of integrated models (“Model Train”) to increase our understanding of issues related to emerging chemicals in Europe’s river basins and to complement information and knowledge derived from field data. Unlike pre-existing models, the Model Train is suitable to model mixtures of thousands of chemicals, to better approach a “real-life” mixture exposure situation. It can also be used to model new chemicals at a stage where not much is known about them. The application of these models on a European scale provides temporally and spatially variable concentration data to fill gaps in the space, time and substance domains left open by water quality monitoring, and it provides homogeneous data across Europe where water quality data from monitoring are missing. Thus, it helps to avoid overlooking candidate chemicals and possible hot spots for management intervention. The application of the SOLUTIONS Model Train on a European scale presents a relevant line of evidence for water system level prognostic and diagnostic impact assessment related to chemical pollution. The application supports the design of cost-effective programmes of measures by helping to identify the most affected

Surface water concentrations of 54 pharmaceuticals were predicted for seven major Swedish rivers and the Stockholm City area basins using the STREAM-EU model. These surface water concentrations were used to predict the ecotoxicological impact resulting from the exposure of aquatic organisms to this mixture of 54 pharmaceuticals. STREAM-EU model results indicated that <10 substances were present at median annual water concentrations greater than 10 ng/L with highest concentrations occurring mostly in the more densely populated area of the capital city, Stockholm. There was considerable spatial and temporal variability in the model predictions (1–3 orders of magnitude) due to natural variability (e.g. hydrology, temperature), variations in emissions and uncertainty sources. Local mixture ecotoxicological pressures based on acute EC50 data as well as on chronic NOEC data, expressed as multi-substance potentially affected fraction of species (msPAF), were quantified in 114 separate locations in the waterbodies. It was estimated that 5% of the exposed aquatic species would experience exposure at or above their acute EC50 concentrations (so-called acute hazardous concentration for 5% of species, or aHC5) at only 7% of the locations analyzed (8 out of 114 locations). For the evaluation based on chronic NOEC concentrations, the chronic HC5 (cHC5) is exceeded at 27% of the locations. The acute mixture toxic pressure was estimated to be predominantly caused by only three substances in all waterbodies: Furosemide, Tramadol and Ibuprofen. A similar evaluation of chronic toxic pressure evaluation logically demonstrates that more substances play a significant role in causing a higher chronic toxic pressure at more sites as compared to the acute toxic pressure evaluation. In addition to the three substances contributing most to acute effects, the chronic effects are predominantly caused by another five substances: paracetamol, diclofenac, ethinylestradiol, erythromycin and

An exposure assessment for multiple pharmaceuticals in Swedish surface waters was made using the STREAM-EU model. Results indicate that Metformin (27 ton/y), Paracetamol (6.9 ton/y) and Ibuprofen (2.33 ton/y) were the drugs with higher amounts reaching the Baltic Sea in 2011. 35 of the studied substances had more than 1 kg/y of predicted flush to the sea. Exposure potential given by the ratio amount of the drug exported to the sea/amount emitted to the environment was higher than 50% for 7 drugs (Piperacillin, Lorazepam, Metformin, Hydroxycarbamide, Hydrochlorothiazide, Furosemide and Cetirizine), implying that a high proportion of them will reach the sea, and below 10% for 27 drugs, implying high catchment attenuation. Exposure potentials were found to be dependent of persistency and hydrophobicity of the drugs. Chemicals with Log D > 2 had exposure potentials <10% regardless of their persistence. Chemicals with Log D < 2 had exposure potentials >35% with higher ratios typically achieved for longer half-lives. For Stockholm urban area, 17 of the 54 pharmaceuticals studied had calculated concentrations higher than 10 ng/L. Model agreement with monitored values had an r(2) = 0.62 for predicted concentrations and an r2 = 0.95 for predicted disposed amounts to sea.

An exposure assessment for multiple pharmaceuticals in Swedish surface waters was made using the STREAM-EU model. Results indicate that Metformin (27 ton/y), Paracetamol (6.9 ton/y) and Ibuprofen (2.33 ton/y) were the drugs with higher amounts reaching the Baltic Sea in 2011. 35 of the studied substances had more than 1 kg/y of predicted flush to the sea. Exposure potential given by the ratio amount of the drug exported to the sea/amount emitted to the environment was higher than 50% for 7 drugs (Piperacillin, Lorazepam, Metformin, Hydroxycarbamide, Hydrochlorothiazide, Furosemide and Cetirizine), implying that a high proportion of them will reach the sea, and below 10% for 27 drugs, implying high catchment attenuation. Exposure potentials were found to be dependent of persistency and hydrophobicity of the drugs. Chemicals with Log D > 2 had exposure potentials <10% regardless of their persistence. Chemicals with Log D  <  −2 had exposure potentials >35% with higher ratios typically achieved for longer half-lives. For Stockholm urban area, 17 of the 54 pharmaceuticals studied had calculated concentrations higher than 10 ng/L. Model agreement with monitored values had an r2 = 0.62 for predicted concentrations and an r2 = 0.95 for predicted disposed amounts to sea.