1. Recalibration of the Framingham risk score for predicting 10-year risk of cardiovascular events: A non-concurrent rural cohort study from Tamil Nadu
- Author
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Midhun Sasikumar, Anu Mary Oommen, Venkata Raghava Mohan, Priti Gupta, Grace Rebekah, Vinod Joseph Abraham, and Kuryan George
- Subjects
Cardiovascular diseases ,CVD risk Score ,Framingham risk score ,Recalibration ,Surgery ,RD1-811 ,Diseases of the circulatory (Cardiovascular) system ,RC666-701 - Abstract
Objective: To recalibrate the Framingham Risk Score-cardiovascular diseases (FRS-CVD) using 10-year mortality data and baseline risk factor data for a rural cohort and assess the effect of recalibration on proportion categorised as high risk. Methods: Participants of a cardiovascular risk factor survey aged 30–64 years in 2011–12, from 9 villages of a rural block in Vellore, Tamil Nadu, were followed up for mortality till 2021, as part of an established demographic surveillance system. We calculated both lipid-based and Body Mass Index-based FRS-CVD risk scores, as well as recalibrated scores using risk factor data from the baseline survey and CVD mortality observed over 10 years. Results: Based on original lipid-based FRS-CVD scores, 8.48% (109) of 1285 males had a 10-year CVD risk ≥30%, compared to 11.60% (149) with recalibrated scores. Among 1737 females, 1.50% (26) had a 10-year CVD risk of ≥30%, using original FRS-CVD scores, and 3.22% (56) using recalibrated scores. Similarly, for BMI based FRS-CVD scores, overall, 3.63% (110/3028) had a 10-year risk of ≥30%, compared to 6.64% (201) using recalibrated scores.The median 10-year FRS-CVD original score in males was 7.57 (IQR: 3.67–15.83), and 2.53 (IQR: 1.28–5.32) in females, compared to 8.95 (IQR: 4.35–18.52) and 3.79 (IQR: 1.92–7.93) respectively, for the recalibrated FRS-CVD risk scores. Conclusion: The recalibrated Framingham models showed a greater proportion of the population at risk of CVDs compared to the original FRS scores, with males having 2–3 times greater CVD risk scores compared to females.
- Published
- 2023
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