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As rainfed agriculture remains India’s critical source of livelihood, improving our understanding of rainy season onset timing in the region is of great importance for a better prediction. Using a new gridded dataset of rainy season characteristics, we found a clear phase relationship between the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and the onset timing of the rainy season over the Indian subcontinent. A significantly high probability of rainy season onset is observed when the MJO convection stays over the western-central Indian Ocean. On the other hand, the rainy season onset is infrequent when the MJO is over the Maritime Continent and western Pacific. The MJO-associated convective instability with anomalous warm and moist air in the lower troposphere appears and grows during the period 10 days prior to the onset of rainy season, and drops substantially after the start of rainy season, suggesting its role as a trigger of rainy season onset. In contrast, the low-frequency background state (LFBS) with a period > 90 days favors a convectively unstable stratification even after the onset of the rainy season, supporting the succeeding precipitation during the entire rainy season. Based on the scale-decomposed moisture budget diagnosis, we further found that the key processes inducing the abrupt transition from a dry to a wet condition come mainly from two processes: 1) convergence of LFBS moisture by MJO-related circulation perturbations and 2) advection of MJO moisture anomalies by the background cross-equatorial flow toward the Indian subcontinent. The results may help provide a better and longer lead-time prediction of the rainy season onset over the Indian subcontinent.

The atmospheric 10–20-day quasi-biweekly mode (QBWM) significantly modulates the active–break spells of the South Asian monsoon. Current knowledge, however, is limited concerning the diversity of the QBWM in the Indian Ocean (IO). Based on extended empirical orthogonal function analysis, two dominant summer modes are constructed in the IO. The first mode (QBWM1) generally depicts IO basin-dependent variability, while the second mode (QBWM2) exhibits a close relationship with the northwestern Pacific. QBWM1 initiates in the equatorial western IO and propagates toward the eastern IO along the equator. Two Rossby wave cells evolve in the off-equatorial eastern IO when convection encounters the Maritime Continent, and subsequently the northern cell develops and moves westward in the South Asian monsoon region. In contrast, QBWM2 originates in the northwestern Pacific and passes westward across the South Asian monsoon region in the form of convectively coupled Rossby waves. The maintenance mechanism of the peculiar IO basin-dependent QBWM1 is understood in terms of moisture dynamics. Significant moisture anomalies are found to precondition convection initiation in the western IO and subsequent eastward movement along the equator. Afterward, two off-equatorial moisture centers are generated in the double Rossby wave cells along with convection dissipation in the eastern IO, and the moisture anomalies are delivered from the southern cell toward the convection initiation area in the western IO via a moisture conveyor belt without coupling with convection. Moisture budget analysis indicates that the horizontal moisture advection associated with QBWM1 is regulated by the mean clockwise circulation in the tropical IO.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a prominent mode of ocean-atmosphere interannual variability with great climate and socioeconomic impacts. Early positive IOD (pIOD), a newly discovered type of pIOD, induces pronounced rainfall anomalies in boreal summer more than canonical pIOD. It also contributes to more frequent consecutive pIODs, causing devastating droughts and floods. How early pIOD responds to global warming remains unknown. Here, we show that early pIOD has increased substantially in the past decades, reaching the same frequency as canonical pIOD. The increase is caused by intensified Bjerknes feedback and an early summer monsoon onset, which is the major trigger for early pIOD. Model simulations suggest that the increased frequency of early pIOD is likely to continue under greenhouse warming by the same mechanisms as in the observations, increasing boreal summer climate variability and leading to more climate extremes in affected regions.

Unlike other tropical ocean basins, the Bay of Bengal (BoB) has two tropical cyclone (TC) seasons: a pre-monsoon season (Pre-MS) and a post-monsoon season (Post-MS). More interestingly, during the period from 1981 to 2016, the global maximum and minimum formation rates of super cyclones (SCs, categories 4 and 5) occurred in the Pre-MS and Post-MS, respectively, in the BoB. Methods including Butterworth filter, box difference index analysis and quantitative diagnosis were utilized herein to detect what and how background environmental factors cause significantly different SC formation rates between the Pre- and Post-MS. Diagnosis results revealed that the vertical temperature difference (VTD) mainly determines whether TCs can develop into SCs during the Post-MS, similar to Pre-MS. It’s in agreement with previous studies demonstrating that the VTD is controlled by the low-level temperature during the Post-MS but is determined by the upper-level temperature during the Pre-MS. The results also revealed that the background sea surface temperature is much higher in the Pre-MS than in the Post-MS and forces higher 1000 hPa-level air temperature. Additionally, there is higher saturated specific humidity (qs) due to the higher temperature in the Pre-MS. The differences in the bottom-level temperature and qs cooperate to predominantly contribute to the significant difference in Vpot2, which could denote the maximum potential intensity of TC, eventually leading to the remarkably different SC formation rates between the Pre- and Post-MS in the BoB.

This study investigates the northward-propagating quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) in the western North Pacific by examining the composite meridional structures. Using newly released reanalysis and remote sensing data, the northward propagation is understood in terms of the meridional contrasts in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) moisture and the column-integrated moist static energy (MSE). The meridional contrast in the PBL moisture, with larger values north of the convection center, is predominantly attributed to the moisture convergence associated with barotropic vorticity anomalies. A secondary contribution comes from the meridional moisture advection, for which advections by mean and perturbation winds are almost equally important. The meridional contrast in the MSE tendency, due to the recharge in the front of convection and discharge in the rear of convection, is jointly contributed by the meridional and vertical MSE advections. The meridional MSE advection mainly depends on the moisture processes particularly in the PBL, and the vertical MSE advection largely results from the advection of the mean MSE by vertical velocity anomalies, wherein the upper-troposphere ascending motion related to the stratiform heating in the rear of the convection plays the major role. In addition, partial feedback from sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies is evaluated on the basis of MSE budget analysis. SST anomalies tend to enhance the surface turbulent heat fluxes ahead of the convention center and suppress them behind the convention center, thus positively contributing approximately 20% of the meridional contrast in the MSE tendency.

Globally, the highest formation rate of super tropical cyclones (TCs) occurs over the Bay of Bengal (BoB) during the premonsoon transition period (PMT), but TC genesis has a low frequency here. TCs have occurred over the BoB in only 20 of the past 36 years of PMTs (1981–2016). This study investigates which environmental conditions modulate TC formation during the PMT over the BoB by conducting a quantitative analysis based on the genesis potential parameter, vorticity tendency equation, and specific humidity budget equation. The results show that there is a cyclonic anomaly in the TC genesis group compared to the non-TC genesis group, which is mainly due to the divergence term. A significant difference in vorticity contributes to TC formation over the BoB during the PMT. Furthermore, anomalous cyclonic flow enhances ascending motion, transporting moisture to the midlevel atmosphere. A change in specific humidity (SH) causes an increase in relative humidity, which contributes positively to TC formation. The vertical wind shear also makes a small positive contribution. In contrast to the previous three terms, the contribution from the instability term associated with 500- and 850-hPa air temperatures is negative and almost negligible. In addition, the synoptic-scale disturbance energy is more powerful in the TC genesis group than in the non-TC genesis group, which is favorable for TC breeding. Together, these conditions determine whether TCs are generated over the BoB during the PMT.

The interlinked Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) and Western Pacific Ocean (WPO), known as the Indo-Pacific warm pool, are highly active regions for intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs). Interestingly, distinct behaviors exist in ISO seasonality in these two basins. In the WPO, ISO intensity peaks in winter, decays rapidly starting from spring and reaches a minimum in summer. While in the EIO, ISO intensity exhibits a bimodal distribution, with a stronger peak in spring and a weaker one in autumn, followed by two troughs in summer and winter, respectively. Here, the regional ISO seasonality is understood in view of the regional differences in the background fields. For the bimodal ISO seasonality in the EIO, the increase from winter to spring is primarily due to elevated moisture content, the decrease from spring to summer is due to the decline in moisture and the meridional variation in vertical wind shear, and the increase from summer to autumn is mainly attributed to the meridional variation in vertical wind shear. In the WPO, the significant winter-summer contrast is mainly caused by change in moisture content.

The intraseasonal oscillations (ISOs) activate in the tropical Indian Ocean (IO), exhibiting distinct seasonal contrasts in active regions and propagating features. The seasonal northward migration of the ISO activity initiates in spring–early summer, composed of two stages. Strong ISO activity first penetrates into the northern Bay of Bengal (BoB) around mid-April, and then extends to the northern Arabian Sea (AS) by mid-May. The northward-propagating ISOs (NPISOs) during their initiation periods, which are referred to as the primary northward-propagating (PNP) events, are analyzed with regard to the BoB and the AS, respectively. In terms of the BoB PNP event, the northward branch could be observed only in the BoB, and the eastward movement is still clear as the winter ISOs. For the AS PNP event, a strong northward branch spreads across the wider northern IO, as obvious as the summer ISOs. The relative roles of the seasonal environmental fields in modulating the PNP events are diagnosed based on a 2.5-layer atmospheric model. The results indicate that the seasonal variations of the surface moisture dominantly regulate the BoB PNP event, while both the surface moisture and the vertical wind shear are necessary for the AS PNP event. Additionally, the leading BoB PNP event is hypothesized to potentially act as a precondition of the following AS PNP event in terms of their internal ISO reinitiation processes and in terms of creating a favorable easterly shear environment in the northern IO.

Tropical Cyclone (TC) Dahlia occurred adjacent to over the equatorial southeastern Indian Ocean during the period 26 November – 3 December 2017 and was observed by the Bailong buoy, which provides in situ observations of high-frequency variations in the upper ocean environment. The diurnal sea surface temperature (dSST) variabilities during different stages of the passage of TC Dahlia are studied. The dSST variability is rather weak during the TC passing stage in contrast to the strong ranges before (0.35 °C) and after (0.57 °C) the TC. Before the influence of TC Dahlia, the dSST presented significant regular variability with a peak in the afternoon and minimum value in the morning, which is similar to the even larger range that occurred after TC Dahlia. During the passage of TC Dahlia, dSST decreased dramatically, and a uniform variation was presented due to the absence of strong heat fluxes and stirring and upwelling induced by strong winds. Further analysis through a one-dimensional mixed layer model (Price-Weller-Pinkel, PWP) indicated that the dominant elements responsible for the different dSST variations during distinct stages of TC Dahlia were shortwave radiation and surface wind, which strongly impacted the dSST evolution during TC Dahlia. The asymmetrical wind strength was responsible for the asymmetry of dSST variation.

Tropical cyclone (TC) over Bay of Bengal (BoB) during its climatologic maximum peak season (October–November, post-monsoon season) exhibits a significant interannual variation between a negative Indian Ocean dipole (NIOD) and a positive IOD (PIOD) phase but not between El Nino and La Nina phase. Diagnosis of observational data reveals that the most important parameter that determines the interannual variation of BoB TC is the interaction between the mid-tropospheric relative humidity and the long-term mean states of absolute vorticity, vertical wind shear, and potential intensity. The change of mid-tropospheric moisture is primarily determined by vertical advection associated with low-level vorticity anomalies during IOD.

Tropical cyclones (TCs) over Southeast Indian Ocean (SEIO) have the notable interannual variability caused by ENSO and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). In the September–November of El Nino and October–November of positive IOD (PIOD), SEIO TCs is far less than its climatology. However, it is hard to separately understand El Nino and PIOD's impact on SEIO TCs due to their similar occurrence time and time scale. Unlike El Nino and PIOD, SEIO TCs is remarkably more than its climatology only in September–November of negative IOD (NIOD) instead of La Nina. Consequently, it is concluded NIOD mainly affects SEIO TCs’ increase. Diagnose results suggest the relative humidity (RH) contributes mostly to the TCs’ increase, vertical wind shear provides the secondary positive contribution, vorticity term also makes a weak positive contribution and PI term's contribution even may be negligible. The study still uncovers the process of RH change: NIOD reaches its peak period and changes atmosphere circulation to make a positive low-level vorticity anomaly over SEIO. Vorticity anomaly strengthens upward motion. The vertical velocity anomaly and climatogical specific humidity (SH) work together to make vertical advection play a dominant role in SH variation. SH's change mainly reflects in RH variation. Eventually, all of these associates with NIOD lead to more SEIO TCs in September–November and the significance of difference is above 99%.

Recent in situ buoy observations revealed interesting seasonal features of the diurnal sea surface temperature cycle (DSST) in the eastern tropical Indian Ocean. Composite analysis shows that areas away from the equator exhibit stronger seasonal variations of DSST, while weaker seasonal variations appear near the equator. The most interesting characteristic is the distinctive contrast of the seasonal variations of DSST between the Bay of Bengal (BOB) and the region south of the equator (particularly around 12°S). While the range of DSST is weakest in the BOB during boreal summer, it has its largest range around 12°S in austral summer. Furthermore, BOB DSST exhibits two peaks that occur during the monsoon transitions (March–April and October), whereas DSST south of the equator shows only a single peak in its annual cycle. Using a one-dimensional, oceanic, mixed layer model, the authors examined the cause of the distinctive annual cycles of DSST north and south of the equator. Two parallel experiments were conducted at buoy sites 12°N, 90°E and 12°S, 80.5°E driven by surface forcing from the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) product. The results demonstrated that, in the BOB, both surface shortwave radiation and wind stress contribute to the March maximum, whereas the wind stress alone drives the October maximum. In contrast, the seasonal variation of DSST south of the equator is primarily caused by the annual cycle of the wind stress, which is extremely weak in austral summer near the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ). How the monsoon and ITCZ modulate the distinctive annual cycles of DSST is discussed.

Information on changes in the oceanic carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration and air–sea CO2 flux as well as on ocean acidification in the Indian Ocean is very limited. In this study, temporal changes of the inorganic carbon system in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean (EIO, 5° N–5° S, 90–95° E) are examined using partial pressure of carbon dioxide (pCO2) data collected in May 2012, historical pCO2 data since 1962, and total alkalinity (TA) data calculated from salinity. Results show that sea surface pCO2 in the equatorial belt (2° N–2° S, 90–95° E) increased from ∼307 μatm in April 1963 to ∼373 μatm in May 1999, ∼381 μatm in April 2007, and ∼385 μatm in May 2012. The mean rate of pCO2 increase in this area (∼1.56 μatm yr−1) was close to that in the atmosphere (∼1.46 μatm yr−1). Despite the steady pCO2 increase in this region, no significant change in air–sea CO2 fluxes was detected during this period. Ocean acidification as indicated by pH and saturation states for carbonate minerals has indeed taken place in this region. Surface water pH (total hydrogen scale) and saturation state for aragonite (Ωarag), calculated from pCO2 and TA, decreased significantly at rates of −0.0016 ± 0.0001 and −0.0095 ± 0.0005 yr−1, respectively. The respective contributions of temperature, salinity, TA, and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) to the increase in surface pCO2 and the decreases in pH and Ωarag are quantified. We find that the increase in DIC dominated these changes, while contributions from temperature, salinity, and TA were insignificant. The increase in DIC was most likely associated with the increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, and the transport of accumulated anthropogenic CO2 from a CO2 sink region via basin-scale ocean circulations. These two processes may combine to drive oceanic DIC to follow atmospheric CO2 increase.

The first-branch northward-propagating intra- seasonal oscillation (FNISO) over the tropical Indian Ocean (IO) often triggers the onset of the Asian summer monsoon. In this study we investigate the structures and mechanisms associated with FNISO through the diagnosis of ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period of 1990-2009. A composite analysis is conducted to reveal the structure and evolution characteristics of the FNISO and associated background circulation changes. It is found that the FNISO convection originates from the southwest- ern IO and propagates eastward. After reaching the eastern IO, the major convective branch moves northward toward the northern Bay of Bengal (BoB). Two possible mecha- nisms may contribute to the northward propagation of the FNISO. One is the meridional asymmetry of the back- ground convective instability. A greater background con- vective instability over the northern BoB may destabilize Rossby waves and cause convection to shift northward. The other is the meridional phase leading of perturbation humidity in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Maximum PBL moisture appears to the north of the convection center, which promotes a convectively unstable stratification ahead of the convection and leads to the northward prop- agation of the FNISO. A PBL moisture budget analysis reveals that anomalous zonal advection is a dominant process in contributing to the moisture asymmetry.

Sea surface temperature (SST) reaches its annual maximum just before the summer monsoon onset and collapses soon after in the central areas of the Bay of Bengal (BoB). Here, the impact of the peak in the pre-monsoon SST on triggering the earliest monsoon onset in the BoB is investigated, with a focus on the role they play in driving the first-branch northward-propagating intra-seasonal oscillations (FNISOs) over the equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EIO). During the calm pre-monsoon period, sea surface warming in the BoB could increase the surface equivalent potential temperature (θe) in several ways. Firstly, warming of the sea surface heats the surface air through sensible heating, which forces the air temperature to follow the SST. The elevated air surface temperature accounts for 30 % of the surface θe growth. Furthermore, the elevated air temperature raises the water vapor capacity of the surface air to accommodate more water vapor. Constrained by the observation that the surface relative humidity is maintained nearly constant during the monsoon transition period, the surface specific humidity exhibits a significant increase, according to the Clausius–Clapeyron relationship. Budget analysis indicates that the additional moisture is primarily obtained from sea surface evaporation, which also exhibits a weak increasing trend due to the sea surface warming. In this way, it contributes about 70 % to the surface θe growth. The rapid SST increase during the pre-monsoon period preconditions the summer monsoon onset over the BoB through its contributions to significantly increase the surface θe, which eventually establishes the meridional asymmetry of the atmospheric convective instability in the EIO. The pre-established greater convective instability leads to the FNISO convections, and the summer monsoon is triggered in the BoB region.

Monsoon onset vortex (OV) in the form of tropical cyclone is often observed in the pre-monsoon period and contributes to the subsequent abrupt establishment of summer monsoon over the Bay of Bengal (BoB). It is identified here that all historical OVs occurred during the convection-enhanced phase of the first northward-propagating intra-seasonal oscillation (FNISO). The individual contributions from the four large scale environmental fields associated with the intra-seasonal variations to the cyclone genesis are diagnosed with the aid of the genesis potential index. The significant moistening of mid-level atmosphere, which is embedded in the FNISO convection-enhanced phase, is shown to be the primary factor leading to the cyclone genesis. The water vapor budget analysis is further done to understand the governing process for the mid-level humidity increase. It is clearly seen that the vertical advection process, dominated by the anomalous vertical advection of the mean vertical water vapor gradient, plays the critical role. Hence the OVs are shown to be strongly modulated by FNISOs, both of which are important elements of the complex story of the BoB monsoon onset.