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International audience; How to strengthen strategic decision-making with reliable forecast about manufacturing 4.0? As it was observed, the long-range forecasts are biased by competences and experiences of analysts. For improving reliability of strategic forecasting, it is proposed to use a combination of logistic function and problem mapping approach unified by paradigm of available-limiting resources. This paper provides an introduction how results of Researching Future methodology (RFm) can be applied for decision making. Some results, limitations, and perspectives of the current version of RFm are discussed.

International audience; How to strengthen strategic decision-making with reliable forecast about manufacturing 4.0? As it was observed, the long-range forecasts are biased by competences and experiences of analysts. For improving reliability of strategic forecasting, it is proposed to use a combination of logistic function and problem mapping approach unified by paradigm of available-limiting resources. This paper provides an introduction how results of Researching Future methodology (RFm) can be applied for decision making. Some results, limitations, and perspectives of the current version of RFm are discussed.

Report of research project

International audience; The typical ways to gather the latest information about emerging technologies is to elicit them from experts. Unfortunately, most of the existing approaches for collecting needed information produce biased outputs. Indeed, either overoptimistic or pessimistic estimates of future opportunities are produced. Both of them are undesirable, because they cause inadequate technology forecasts and management of technologies as well as misleading decision making. In order to reduce bias while gathering information, a problem mapping approach is proposed that allows to extract and organize experts' knowledge in the shape of a network of interlinked contradictions. The paper is organized the following way: First, the concept of resource limitation to define an S-curve of the technology life cycle is proposed. Several reasons behind the difficulties in assessing resource limitation are discussed. Secondly, the concept of problem mapping through a network of contradictions is introduced. The methodology of mapping technological barriers is described. Some specificities from the practice of contradiction mapping are presented and discussed. The third part studies how problem-contradiction mapping can be applied for the efficient assessment of technology barriers. These conjectures are supported by practical examples from arising energy conversion technology. Finally, some perspectives of problem-contradiction mapping are given from the viewpoints of forecasting, inventive problem solving, management of technologies, and strategic planning.

Handout materials for four days training course

The objective of the study, which we would like to initiate by this paper, is to research the easy to apply rules for the complex system description. These rules will address the problems of the system's complexity which will be disclosed applying the approach presented in this paper. The particularity of our approach is the way to identify and to formulate the key problems of the system's complexity. The starting point for the identification of the problems is the group of the system study tools including e.g. System Dynamics, IDEFØ, OTSM-TRIZ methods. Through the study of these tools it is possible to disclose the problems addressed by these tools and also the problems arising due to the interaction between the tool and the user applying it. The whole process of the research is being recorded using the model of contradiction as a formulation of a problem and the network of contradictions as a tool to picture the interrelations between problems. The network of contradictions which is one of the OTSM-TRIZ concepts is applied here as a way to obtain the single page overview of the research process and also as the powerful platform for the further research towards the principles of complex system description. The main solution of the presented study are first interim results presented as a network of contradictions constructed from the disclosed problems of system's complexity. The problems interconnected in the network are valid for the real complex system of the energy generation system for the urban area including CHP plants, applied by us as a reference case study. In further research we are going to show that addressing the problems of system's complexity identified here, it is possible to describe the complex system using a few simple to apply principles. After performing further research, the practical result will be the decrease in the data treatment expenses e.g. time, computing capacity, human involvement.

Handout materials for pre-conference tutorials

Interim report of research project

This paper discusses an approach that points out technological problems that may occur whilst designing emerging technologies. The shape of the problem maps, which are obtained as an output of the proposed approach, is compatible with inputs of OTSM or TRIZ problem solving processes used in innovative design. One of the standard ways of gathering knowledge and information (qualitative and quantitative) about new technologies is to elicit them from experts. Existing approaches may produce some biased knowledge. Indeed, a result of this approach is either over-optimism about emerging technologies or missed opportunities (stemming from pessimistic evaluation). We propose to reduce bias through a problem mapping approach that extracts and organizes expert knowledge in the shape of a network of interlinked contradictions. First, an overview of forecasting methods which apply S-shaped curves is presented. The concept of the S-curve being shaped by resource limitations is discussed. Some reasons behind the complexity of assessing resource limitations are proposed. Secondly, the concept of problem mapping is introduced. Some features of the practice of problem mapping are discussed. The third part examines how problem mapping can be purposefully applied for assessing technological barriers using examples from emerging energy conversion technology. Finally problem mapping is considered from the viewpoint of knowledge management, inventive problem solving, and decision making within the context of studying future technology and innovative design.

The ability to foresee future technology is a key task of Innovative Design. The paper focuses on the obstacles to reliable prediction of technological evolution for the purpose of Innovative Design. First, a brief analysis of problems for existing forecasting methods is presented. The causes for the complexity of technology prediction are discussed in the context of reduction of the forecast errors. Second, using a contradiction analysis, a set of problems related to technology forecast is proposed. Third, the paper examines how some knowledge from the Theory of Inventive Problem Solving (TRIZ) can be applied in response to forecasting problems. Fourth, conclusions are drawn about the perspectives for reliable technology forecasting. All of these reflections are supported by the research experience gained in the project with the European Institute for Energy Research (EIfER, Karlsruhe).

19th CIRP Design Conference, Cranfield : Royaume-Uni (2009); International audience; In this paper applications of logistic S-curve and component logistics are considered in a framework of long-term forecasting of emerging technologies. Several questions and issues are discussed in connection with the presented ways of studying the transition from invention to innovation and further evolution of technologies. First, the features of a simple logistic model are presented and diverse types of competition are discussed. Second, a component logistic model is presented. Third, a hypothesis about the usability of a knowledge growth description and simulation for reliable long-term forecasting is proposed. Some interim empirical results for applying networks of contradictions are given.

International audience; In this paper the application of several models, based on the logistic growth function (simple logistic, component logistic and logistic substitution models) in the context of technology change forecasting is discussed. The main idea of this paper is to revise existing models and arrange working hypotheses for future research. First, the features of a simple logistic model are presented, different types of competition are discussed and a component logistic model is briefly presented. Second, logistic substitution models in the context of long-term technological forecasting are reviewed. Third, some hypotheses about how to improve the reliability of the logistic substitution model for studying the technological future are proposed.