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Motivation: Population structure significantly affects evolutionary dynamics. Such structure may be due to spatial segregation, but may also reflect any other gene-flow-limiting aspect of a model. In combination with the structured coalescent, this fact can be used to inform phylogenetic tree reconstruction, as well as to infer parameters such as migration rates and sub-population sizes from annotated sequence data. However, conducting Bayesian inference under the structured coalescent is impeded by the difficulty of constructing Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling algorithms (samplers) capable of efficiently exploring the state space.Results: In this paper, we present a new MCMC sampler capable of sampling from posterior distributions over structured trees: timed phylogenetic trees in which lineages are associated with the distinct sub-population in which they lie. The sampler includes a set of MCMC proposal functions which offer significant mixing improvements over a previously published method. Furthermore, its implementation as a BEAST 2 package ensures maximum flexibility with respect to model and prior specification. We demonstrate the usefulness of this new sampler by using it to infer migration rates and effective population sizes of H3N2 influenza between New Zealand, New York and Hong Kong from publicly-available HA sequences under the structured coalescent.Availability: The sampler has been implemented as a publicly-available BEAST2 package which is distributed under version 3 of the GNU GeneralPublic License (GPL) at http://compevol.github.io/MultiTypeTree.Contact: tgvaughan@gmail.com [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Given the rapid cross-country spread of SARS-CoV-2 and the resulting difficulty in tracking lineage spread, we investigated the potential of combining mobile service data and fine-granular metadata (such as postal codes and genomic data) to advance integrated genomic surveillance of the pandemic in the federal state of Thuringia, Germany. We sequenced over 6500 SARS-CoV-2 Alpha genomes (B.1.1.7) across 7 months within Thuringia while collecting patients' isolation dates and postal codes. Our dataset is complemented by over 66,000 publicly available German Alpha genomes and mobile service data for Thuringia. We identified the existence and spread of nine persistent mutation variants within the Alpha lineage, seven of which formed separate phylogenetic clusters with different spreading patterns in Thuringia. The remaining two are subclusters. Mobile service data can indicate these clusters' spread and highlight a potential sampling bias, especially of low-prevalence variants. Thereby, mobile service data can be used either retrospectively to assess surveillance coverage and efficiency from already collected data or to actively guide part of a surveillance sampling process to districts where these variants are expected to emerge. The latter concept was successfully implemented as a proof-of-concept for a mobility-guided sampling strategy in response to the surveillance of Omicron sublineage BQ.1.1. The combination of mobile service data and SARS-CoV-2 surveillance by genome sequencing is a valuable tool for more targeted and responsive surveillance., Competing Interests: RS, MP, CF, AK, CH, MH, ML, MJ, MM, PD, RS, MH, DK, CB No competing interests declared, (© 2024, Spott et al.)

During the early stages of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, before vaccines were available, nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as reducing contacts or antigenic testing were used to control viral spread. Quantifying their success is therefore key for future pandemic preparedness. Using 1.8 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes from systematic surveillance, we study viral lineage importations into Germany for the third pandemic wave from late 2020 to early 2021, using large-scale Bayesian phylogenetic and phylogeographic analysis with a longitudinal assessment of lineage importation dynamics over multiple sampling strategies. All major nationwide NPIs were followed by fewer importations, with the strongest decreases seen for free rapid tests, the strengthening of regulations on mask-wearing in public transport and stores, as well as on internal movements and gatherings. Most SARS-CoV-2 lineages first appeared in the three most populous states with most cases, and spread from there within the country. Importations rose before and peaked shortly after the Christmas holidays. The substantial effects of free rapid tests and obligatory medical/surgical mask-wearing suggests these as key for pandemic preparedness, given their relatively few negative socioeconomic effects. The approach relates environmental factors at the host population level to viral lineage dissemination, facilitating similar analyses of rapidly evolving pathogens in the future., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: To potentially improve impaired vasomotion of patients with multiple organ dysfunction syndrome (MODS), we tested whether an electromagnetic field of low flux density coupled with a biorhythmically defined impulse configuration (Physical Vascular Therapy BEMER ® , PVT), in addition to standard care, is safe and feasible and might improve disturbed microcirculatory blood flow and thereby improve global haemodynamics., Methods: In a prospective, monocentric, one-arm pilot study, 10 MODS patients (APACHE II score 20-35) were included. Patients were treated, in addition to standard care, for 4 days with PVT (3 treatment periods of 8 min each day; day 1: field intensity 10.5 μT; day 2:14 μT, day 3:17.5 μT; day 4:21.0 μT). Primary endpoint was the effect of PVT on sublingual microcirculatory perfusion, documented by microvascular flow index (MFI). Patient safety, adverse events, and outcomes were documented., Results: An increase in MFI by approximately 25% paralleled 4-day PVT, with the increase starting immediately after the first PVT and lasting over the total 4-day treatment period. Concerning global haemodynamics (secondary endpoints), halving vasopressor use within 24 h, and haemodynamic stabilisation paralleled 4-day PVT with an increase in cardiac index, stroke volume index, and cardiac power index by 30%-50%. No adverse events (AEs) or serious adverse events (SAEs) were classified as causally related to the medical product (PVT) or study. Three patients died within 28 days and one patient between 28 and 180 days., Conclusion: PVT treatment was feasible and safe and could be performed without obstruction of standard patient care. An increase in microcirculatory blood flow, a rapid reduction in vasopressor use, and an improvement in global haemodynamics paralleled PVT treatment. Findings of this pilot study allowed forming a concept for a randomized trial for further proof., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

SARS-CoV-2 can infect human cells through the recognition of the human angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptor. This affinity is given by six amino acid residues located in the variable loop of the receptor binding domain (RBD) within the Spike protein. Genetic recombination involving bat and pangolin Sarbecoviruses, and natural selection have been proposed as possible explanations for the acquisition of the variable loop and these amino acid residues. In this study we employed Bayesian phylogenetics to jointly reconstruct the phylogeny of the RBD among human, bat and pangolin Sarbecoviruses and detect recombination events affecting this region of the genome. A recombination event involving RaTG13, the closest relative of SARS-CoV-2 that lacks five of the six residues, and an unsampled Sarbecovirus lineage was detected. This result suggests that the variable loop of the RBD didn't have a recombinant origin and the key amino acid residues were likely present in the common ancestor of SARS-CoV-2 and RaTG13, with the latter losing five of them probably as the result of recombination., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Phylodynamic methods have lately played a key role in understanding the spread of infectious diseases. During the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, large scale genomic surveillance has further increased the potential of dynamic inference from viral genomes. With the continual emergence of novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants, explicitly allowing transmission rate differences between simultaneously circulating variants in phylodynamic inference is crucial. In this study, we present and empirically validate an extension to the BEAST2 package birth-death skyline model (BDSKY), BDSKY[Formula: see text], which introduces a scaling factor for the transmission rate between independent, jointly inferred trees. In an extensive simulation study, we show that BDSKY[Formula: see text] robustly infers the relative transmission rates under different epidemic scenarios. Using publicly available genome data of SARS-CoV-2, we apply BDSKY[Formula: see text] to quantify the transmission advantage of the Omicron over the Delta variant in Berlin, Germany. We find the overall transmission rate of Omicron to be scaled by a factor of two with pronounced variation between the individual clusters of each variant. These results quantify the transmission advantage of Omicron over the previously circulating Delta variant, in a crucial period of pre-established non-pharmaceutical interventions. By inferring variant- as well as cluster-specific transmission rate scaling factors, we show the differences in transmission dynamics for each variant. This highlights the importance of incorporating lineage-specific transmission differences in phylodynamic inference., Competing Interests: All authors declare that no conflicts of interest exist., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press.)

The origins of the Indo-European language family are hotly disputed. Bayesian phylogenetic analyses of core vocabulary have produced conflicting results, with some supporting a farming expansion out of Anatolia ~9000 years before present (yr B.P.), while others support a spread with horse-based pastoralism out of the Pontic-Caspian Steppe ~6000 yr B.P. Here we present an extensive database of Indo-European core vocabulary that eliminates past inconsistencies in cognate coding. Ancestry-enabled phylogenetic analysis of this dataset indicates that few ancient languages are direct ancestors of modern clades and produces a root age of ~8120 yr B.P. for the family. Although this date is not consistent with the Steppe hypothesis, it does not rule out an initial homeland south of the Caucasus, with a subsequent branch northward onto the steppe and then across Europe. We reconcile this hybrid hypothesis with recently published ancient DNA evidence from the steppe and the northern Fertile Crescent.

Background: Plague is a zoonotic disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, highly prevalent in the Central Highlands, a mountainous region in the center of Madagascar. After a plague-free period of over 60 years in the northwestern coast city of Mahajanga, the disease reappeared in 1991 and caused several outbreaks until 1999. Previous research indicates that the disease was reintroduced to the city of Mahajanga from the Central Highlands instead of reemerging from a local reservoir. However, it is not clear how many reintroductions occurred and when they took place., Methodology/principal Findings: In this study we applied a Bayesian phylogeographic model to detect and date migrations of Y. pestis between the two locations that could be linked to the re-emergence of plague in Mahajanga. Genome sequences of 300 Y. pestis strains sampled between 1964 and 2012 were analyzed. Four migrations from the Central Highlands to Mahajanga were detected. Two resulted in persistent transmission in humans, one was responsible for most of the human cases recorded between 1995 and 1999, while the other produced plague cases in 1991 and 1992. We dated the emergence of the Y. pestis sub-branch 1.ORI3, which is only present in Madagascar and Turkey, to the beginning of the 20th century, using a Bayesian molecular dating analysis. The split between 1.ORI3 and its ancestor lineage 1.ORI2 was dated to the second half of the 19th century., Conclusions/significance: Our results indicate that two independent migrations from the Central Highlands caused the plague outbreaks in Mahajanga during the 1990s, with both introductions occurring during the early 1980s. They happened over a decade before the detection of human cases, thus the pathogen likely survived in wild reservoirs until the spillover to humans was possible. This study demonstrates the value of Bayesian phylogenetics in elucidating the re-emergence of infectious diseases., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2023 Esquivel Gomez et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Ludwig van Beethoven (1770-1827) remains among the most influential and popular classical music composers. Health problems significantly impacted his career as a composer and pianist, including progressive hearing loss, recurring gastrointestinal complaints, and liver disease. In 1802, Beethoven requested that following his death, his disease be described and made public. Medical biographers have since proposed numerous hypotheses, including many substantially heritable conditions. Here we attempt a genomic analysis of Beethoven in order to elucidate potential underlying genetic and infectious causes of his illnesses. We incorporated improvements in ancient DNA methods into existing protocols for ancient hair samples, enabling the sequencing of high-coverage genomes from small quantities of historical hair. We analyzed eight independently sourced locks of hair attributed to Beethoven, five of which originated from a single European male. We deemed these matching samples to be almost certainly authentic and sequenced Beethoven's genome to 24-fold genomic coverage. Although we could not identify a genetic explanation for Beethoven's hearing disorder or gastrointestinal problems, we found that Beethoven had a genetic predisposition for liver disease. Metagenomic analyses revealed furthermore that Beethoven had a hepatitis B infection during at least the months prior to his death. Together with the genetic predisposition and his broadly accepted alcohol consumption, these present plausible explanations for Beethoven's severe liver disease, which culminated in his death. Unexpectedly, an analysis of Y chromosomes sequenced from five living members of the Van Beethoven patrilineage revealed the occurrence of an extra-pair paternity event in Ludwig van Beethoven's patrilineal ancestry., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests T.J.A.B. has received scholarships from the American Beethoven Society in support of his graduate studies. G.R., M.S., and P.A.M. are employees of GeneByGene. G.R. and M.S. hold stock options in MyDNA, Inc. M.M.N. has received fees for membership in an advisory board from HMG Systems Engineering GmbH (Fürth, Germany), for membership in the Medical-Scientific Editorial Office of the Deutsches Ärzteblatt, and for serving as a consultant for EVERIS Belgique SPRL in a project of the European Commission (REFORM/SC2020/029). M.M.N. receives salary payments from Life & Brain GmbH and holds shares in Life & Brain GmbH., (Copyright © 2023 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Coronaviruses have a broad host range and exhibit high zoonotic potential. In this chapter, we describe their genomic organization in terms of encoded proteins and provide an introduction to the peculiar discontinuous transcription mechanism. Further, we present evolutionary conserved genomic RNA secondary structure features, which are involved in the complex replication mechanism. With a focus on computational methods, we review the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 starting with the 2019 strains. In that context, we also discuss the debated hypothesis of whether SARS-CoV-2 was created in a laboratory. We focus on the molecular evolution and the epidemiological dynamics of this recently emerged pathogen and we explain how variants of concern are detected and characterised. COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, can spread through different transmission routes and also depends on a number of risk factors. We describe how current computational models of viral epidemiology, or more specifically, phylodynamics, have facilitated and will continue to enable a better understanding of the epidemic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2., (© 2023. The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

The multi-type birth-death model with sampling is a phylodynamic model which enables the quantification of past population dynamics in structured populations based on phylogenetic trees. The BEAST 2 package bdmm implements an algorithm for numerically computing the probability density of a phylogenetic tree given the population dynamic parameters under this model. In the initial release of bdmm , analyses were computationally limited to trees consisting of up to approximately 250 genetic samples. We implemented important algorithmic changes to bdmm which dramatically increased the number of genetic samples that could be analyzed and which improved the numerical robustness and efficiency of the calculations. Including more samples led to the improved precision of parameter estimates, particularly for structured models with a high number of inferred parameters. Furthermore, we report on several model extensions to bdmm , inspired by properties common to empirical datasets. We applied this improved algorithm to two partly overlapping datasets of the Influenza A virus HA sequences sampled around the world-one with 500 samples and the other with only 175-for comparison. We report and compare the global migration patterns and seasonal dynamics inferred from each dataset. In this way, we show the information that is gained by analyzing the bigger dataset, which became possible with the presented algorithmic changes to bdmm . In summary, bdmm allows for the robust, faster, and more general phylodynamic inference of larger datasets.

Viruses are the cause of a considerable burden to human, animal and plant health, while on the other hand playing an important role in regulating entire ecosystems. The power of new sequencing technologies combined with new tools for processing "Big Data" offers unprecedented opportunities to answer fundamental questions in virology. Virologists have an urgent need for virus-specific bioinformatics tools. These developments have led to the formation of the European Virus Bioinformatics Center, a network of experts in virology and bioinformatics who are joining forces to enable extensive exchange and collaboration between these research areas. The EVBC strives to provide talented researchers with a supportive environment free of gender bias, but the gender gap in science, especially in math-intensive fields such as computer science, persists. To bring more talented women into research and keep them there, we need to highlight role models to spark their interest, and we need to ensure that female scientists are not kept at lower levels but are given the opportunity to lead the field. Here we showcase the work of the EVBC and highlight the achievements of some outstanding women experts in virology and viral bioinformatics.

The origin of the medieval Black Death pandemic (AD 1346-1353) has been a topic of continuous investigation because of the pandemic's extensive demographic impact and long-lasting consequences 1,2 . Until now, the most debated archaeological evidence potentially associated with the pandemic's initiation derives from cemeteries located near Lake Issyk-Kul of modern-day Kyrgyzstan 1,3-9 . These sites are thought to have housed victims of a fourteenth-century epidemic as tombstone inscriptions directly dated to 1338-1339 state 'pestilence' as the cause of death for the buried individuals 9 . Here we report ancient DNA data from seven individuals exhumed from two of these cemeteries, Kara-Djigach and Burana. Our synthesis of archaeological, historical and ancient genomic data shows a clear involvement of the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis in this epidemic event. Two reconstructed ancient Y. pestis genomes represent a single strain and are identified as the most recent common ancestor of a major diversification commonly associated with the pandemic's emergence, here dated to the first half of the fourteenth century. Comparisons with present-day diversity from Y. pestis reservoirs in the extended Tian Shan region support a local emergence of the recovered ancient strain. Through multiple lines of evidence, our data support an early fourteenth-century source of the second plague pandemic in central Eurasia., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

The bacterial pathogen Yersinia pestis gave rise to devastating outbreaks throughout human history, and ancient DNA evidence has shown it afflicted human populations as far back as the Neolithic. Y. pestis genomes recovered from the Eurasian Late Neolithic/Early Bronze Age (LNBA) period have uncovered key evolutionary steps that led to its emergence from a Yersinia pseudotuberculosis-like progenitor; however, the number of reconstructed LNBA genomes are too few to explore its diversity during this critical period of development. Here, we present 17 Y. pestis genomes dating to 5,000 to 2,500 y BP from a wide geographic expanse across Eurasia. This increased dataset enabled us to explore correlations between temporal, geographical, and genetic distance. Our results suggest a nonflea-adapted and potentially extinct single lineage that persisted over millennia without significant parallel diversification, accompanied by rapid dispersal across continents throughout this period, a trend not observed in other pathogens for which ancient genomes are available. A stepwise pattern of gene loss provides further clues on its early evolution and potential adaptation. We also discover the presence of the flea-adapted form of Y. pestis in Bronze Age Iberia, previously only identified in in the Caucasus and the Volga regions, suggesting a much wider geographic spread of this form of Y. pestis. Together, these data reveal the dynamic nature of plague’s formative years in terms of its early evolution and ecology.

Healthcare-associated outbreaks of vancomycin-resistant Enterococcus faecium (VREfm) are a worldwide problem with increasing prevalence. The genomic plasticity of this hospital-adapted pathogen contributes to its efficient spread despite infection control measures. Here, we aimed to identify the genomic and phenotypic determinants of health care-associated transmission of VREfm. We assessed the VREfm transmission networks at the tertiary-care University Hospital of Zurich (USZ) between October 2014 and February 2018 and investigated microevolutionary dynamics of this pathogen. We performed whole-genome sequencing for the 69 VREfm isolates collected during this time frame and assessed the population structure and variability of the vancomycin resistance transposon. Phylogenomic analysis allowed us to reconstruct transmission networks and to unveil external or wider transmission networks undetectable by routine surveillance. Notably, it unveiled a persistent clone , sampled 31 times over a 29-month period. Exploring the evolutionary dynamics of this clone and characterizing the phenotypic consequences revealed the spread of a variant with decreased daptomycin susceptibility and the acquired ability to utilize N-acetyl-galactosamine (GalNAc), one of the primary constituents of the human gut mucins. This nutrient utilization advantage was conferred by a novel plasmid, termed pELF_USZ, which exhibited a linear topology. This plasmid, which was harbored by two distinct clones, was transferable by conjugation. Overall, this work highlights the potential of combining epidemiological, functional genomic, and evolutionary perspectives to unveil adaptation strategies of VREfm. IMPORTANCE Sequencing microbial pathogens causing outbreaks has become a common practice to characterize transmission networks. In addition to the signal provided by vertical evolution, bacterial genomes harbor mobile genetic elements shared horizontally between clones. While macroevolutionary studies have revealed an important role of plasmids and genes encoding carbohydrate utilization systems in the adaptation of Enterococcus faecium to the hospital environment, mechanisms of dissemination and the specific function of many of these genetic determinants remain to be elucidated. Here, we characterize a plasmid providing a nutrient utilization advantage and show evidence for its clonal and horizontal spread at a local scale. Further studies integrating epidemiological, functional genomics, and evolutionary perspectives will be critical to identify changes shaping the success of this pathogen.

Background: Ethiopia is one of the sub-Saharan countries hit hard by the HIV epidemic. Previous studies have shown that subtype C dominates the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic, but the evolutionary and temporal dynamics of HIV-1 in Ethiopia have not been closely scrutinized. Understanding the evolutionary and epidemiological pattern of HIV is vital to monitor the spread, evaluate and implement HIV prevention strategies., Methods: We analyzed 1,276 Ethiopian HIV-1 subtype C polymerase ( pol sequences), including 144 newly generated sequences, collected from different parts of the country from 1986 to 2017. We employed state-of-art maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylodynamic analyses to comprehensively describe the evolutionary dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Ethiopia. We used Bayesian phylodynamic models to estimate the dynamics of the effective population size (N e ) and reproductive numbers (R e ) through time for the HIV epidemic in Ethiopia., Results: Our analysis revealed that the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic originated from two independent introductions at the beginning of the 1970s and 1980s from eastern and southern African countries, respectively, followed by epidemic growth reaching its maximum in the early 1990s. We identified three large clusters with a majority of Ethiopian sequences. Phylodynamic analyses revealed that all three clusters were characterized by high transmission rates during the early epidemic, followed by a decline in HIV-1 transmissions after 1990. R e was high (4-6) during the earlier time of the epidemic but dropped significantly and remained low (R e  < 1) after the mid-1990. Similarly, with an expected shift in time, the effective population size (N e ) steadily increased until the beginning of 2000, followed by a decline and stabilization until recent years. The phylodynamic analyses corroborated the modeled UNAIDS incidence and prevalence estimates., Conclusion: The rapid decline in the HIV epidemic took place a decade before introducing antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia and coincided with early behavioral, preventive, and awareness interventions implemented in the country. Our findings highlight the importance of behavioral interventions and antiretroviral therapy scale-up to halt and maintain HIV transmissions at low levels (R e  < 1). The phylodynamic analyses provide epidemiological insights not directly available using standard surveillance and may inform the adjustment of public health strategies in HIV prevention in Ethiopia., Competing Interests: The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2022 Arimide, Esquivel-Gómez, Kebede, Sasinovich, Balcha, Björkman, Kühnert and Medstrand.)

By October 2021, 230 million SARS-CoV-2 diagnoses have been reported. Yet, a considerable proportion of cases remains undetected. Here, we propose GInPipe, a method that rapidly reconstructs SARS-CoV-2 incidence profiles solely from publicly available, time-stamped viral genomes. We validate GInPipe against simulated outbreaks and elaborate phylodynamic analyses. Using available sequence data, we reconstruct incidence histories for Denmark, Scotland, Switzerland, and Victoria (Australia) and demonstrate, how to use the method to investigate the effects of changing testing policies on case ascertainment. Specifically, we find that under-reporting was highest during summer 2020 in Europe, coinciding with more liberal testing policies at times of low testing capacities. Due to the increased use of real-time sequencing, it is envisaged that GInPipe can complement established surveillance tools to monitor the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. In post-pandemic times, when diagnostic efforts are decreasing, GInPipe may facilitate the detection of hidden infection dynamics., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) has been infecting humans for millennia and remains a global health problem, but its past diversity and dispersal routes are largely unknown. We generated HBV genomic data from 137 Eurasians and Native Americans dated between ~10,500 and ~400 years ago. We date the most recent common ancestor of all HBV lineages to between ~20,000 and 12,000 years ago, with the virus present in European and South American hunter-gatherers during the early Holocene. After the European Neolithic transition, Mesolithic HBV strains were replaced by a lineage likely disseminated by early farmers that prevailed throughout western Eurasia for ~4000 years, declining around the end of the 2nd millennium BCE. The only remnant of this prehistoric HBV diversity is the rare genotype G, which appears to have reemerged during the HIV pandemic.

As multi-drug resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) continues to spread, investigating the transmission potential of different drug-resistant strains becomes an ever more pressing topic in public health. While phylogenetic and transmission tree inferences provide valuable insight into possible transmission chains, phylodynamic inference combines evolutionary and epidemiological analyses to estimate the parameters of the underlying epidemiological processes, allowing us to describe the overall dynamics of disease spread in the population. In this study, we introduce an approach to Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) phylodynamic analysis employing an existing computationally efficient model to quantify the transmission fitness costs of drug resistance with respect to drug-sensitive strains. To determine the accuracy and precision of our approach, we first perform a simulation study, mimicking the simultaneous spread of drug-sensitive and drug-resistant tuberculosis (TB) strains. We analyse the simulated transmission trees using the phylodynamic multi-type birth-death model (MTBD, (Kühnert et al., 2016)) within the BEAST2 framework and show that this model can estimate the parameters of the epidemic well, despite the simplifying assumptions that MTBD makes compared to the complex TB transmission dynamics used for simulation. We then apply the MTBD model to an M. tuberculosis lineage 4 dataset that primarily consists of MDR sequences. Some of the MDR strains additionally exhibit resistance to pyrazinamide - an important first-line anti-tuberculosis drug. Our results support the previously proposed hypothesis that pyrazinamide resistance confers a transmission fitness cost to the bacterium, which we quantify for the given dataset. Importantly, our sensitivity analyses show that the estimates are robust to different prior distributions on the resistance acquisition rate, but are affected by the size of the dataset - i.e. we estimate a higher fitness cost when using fewer sequences for analysis. Overall, we propose that MTBD can be used to quantify the transmission fitness cost for a wide range of pathogens where the strains can be appropriately divided into two or more categories with distinct properties., (Copyright © 2021. Published by Elsevier B.V.)

SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) is a novel virus of the family Coronaviridae. The virus causes the infectious disease COVID-19. The biology of coronaviruses has been studied for many years. However, bioinformatics tools designed explicitly for SARS-CoV-2 have only recently been developed as a rapid reaction to the need for fast detection, understanding and treatment of COVID-19. To control the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, it is of utmost importance to get insight into the evolution and pathogenesis of the virus. In this review, we cover bioinformatics workflows and tools for the routine detection of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the reliable analysis of sequencing data, the tracking of the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluation of containment measures, the study of coronavirus evolution, the discovery of potential drug targets and development of therapeutic strategies. For each tool, we briefly describe its use case and how it advances research specifically for SARS-CoV-2. All tools are free to use and available online, either through web applications or public code repositories. Contact:evbc@unj-jena.de., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Syphilis is a globally re-emerging disease, which has marked European history with a devastating epidemic at the end of the 15 th century. Together with non-venereal treponemal diseases, like bejel and yaws, which are found today in subtropical and tropical regions, it currently poses a substantial health threat worldwide. The origins and spread of treponemal diseases remain unresolved, including syphilis' potential introduction into Europe from the Americas. Here, we present the first genetic data from archaeological human remains reflecting a high diversity of Treponema pallidum in early modern Europe. Our study demonstrates that a variety of strains related to both venereal syphilis and yaws-causing T. pallidum subspecies were already present in Northern Europe in the early modern period. We also discovered a previously unknown T. pallidum lineage recovered as a sister group to yaws- and bejel-causing lineages. These findings imply a more complex pattern of geographical distribution and etiology of early treponemal epidemics than previously understood., Competing Interests: Declaration of Interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Although tuberculosis accounts for the highest mortality from a bacterial infection on a global scale, questions persist regarding its origin. One hypothesis based on modern Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC) genomes suggests their most recent common ancestor followed human migrations out of Africa approximately 70,000 years before present. However, studies using ancient genomes as calibration points have yielded much younger dates of less than 6000 years. Here, we aim to address this discrepancy through the analysis of the highest-coverage and highest-quality ancient MTBC genome available to date, reconstructed from a calcified lung nodule of Bishop Peder Winstrup of Lund (b. 1605-d. 1679)., Results: A metagenomic approach for taxonomic classification of whole DNA content permitted the identification of abundant DNA belonging to the human host and the MTBC, with few non-TB bacterial taxa comprising the background. Genomic enrichment enabled the reconstruction of a 141-fold coverage M. tuberculosis genome. In utilizing this high-quality, high-coverage seventeenth-century genome as a calibration point for dating the MTBC, we employed multiple Bayesian tree models, including birth-death models, which allowed us to model pathogen population dynamics and data sampling strategies more realistically than those based on the coalescent., Conclusions: The results of our metagenomic analysis demonstrate the unique preservation environment calcified nodules provide for DNA. Importantly, we estimate a most recent common ancestor date for the MTBC of between 2190 and 4501 before present and for Lineage 4 of between 929 and 2084 before present using multiple models, confirming a Neolithic emergence for the MTBC.

The forced relocation of several thousand Africans during Mexico's historic period has so far been documented mostly through archival sources, which provide only sparse detail on their origins and lived experience. Here, we employ a bioarchaeological approach to explore the life history of three 16 th century Africans from a mass burial at the San José de los Naturales Royal Hospital in Mexico City. Our approach draws together ancient genomic data, osteological analysis, strontium isotope data from tooth enamel, δ 13 C and δ 15 N isotope data from dentine, and ethnohistorical information to reveal unprecedented detail on their origins and health. Analyses of skeletal features, radiogenic isotopes, and genetic data from uniparental, genome-wide, and human leukocyte antigen (HLA) markers are consistent with a Sub-Saharan African origin for all three individuals. Complete genomes of Treponema pallidum sub. pertenue (causative agent of yaws) and hepatitis B virus (HBV) recovered from these individuals provide insight into their health as related to infectious disease. Phylogenetic analysis of both pathogens reveals their close relationship to strains circulating in current West African populations, lending support to their origins in this region. The further relationship between the treponemal genome retrieved and a treponemal genome previously typed in an individual from Colonial Mexico highlights the role of the transatlantic slave trade in the introduction and dissemination of pathogens into the New World. Putting together all lines of evidence, we were able to create a biological portrait of three individuals whose life stories have long been silenced by disreputable historical events., Competing Interests: Declaration of Interests The authors declare no competing interests., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

It has been hypothesized that the Neolithic transition towards an agricultural and pastoralist economy facilitated the emergence of human-adapted pathogens. Here, we recovered eight Salmonella enterica subsp. enterica genomes from human skeletons of transitional foragers, pastoralists and agropastoralists in western Eurasia that were up to 6,500 yr old. Despite the high genetic diversity of S. enterica, all ancient bacterial genomes clustered in a single previously uncharacterized branch that contains S. enterica adapted to multiple mammalian species. All ancient bacterial genomes from prehistoric (agro-)pastoralists fall within a part of this branch that also includes the human-specific S. enterica Paratyphi C, illustrating the evolution of a human pathogen over a period of 5,000 yr. Bacterial genomic comparisons suggest that the earlier ancient strains were not host specific, differed in pathogenic potential and experienced convergent pseudogenization that accompanied their downstream host adaptation. These observations support the concept that the emergence of human-adapted S. enterica is linked to human cultural transformations.

The last century has witnessed progress in the study of ancient infectious disease from purely medical descriptions of past ailments to dynamic interpretations of past population health that draw upon multiple perspectives. The recent adoption of high-throughput DNA sequencing has led to an expanded understanding of pathogen presence, evolution, and ecology across the globe. This genomic revolution has led to the identification of disease-causing microbes in both expected and unexpected contexts, while also providing for the genomic characterization of ancient pathogens previously believed to be unattainable by available methods. In this review we explore the development of DNA-based ancient pathogen research, the specialized methods and tools that have emerged to authenticate and explore infectious disease of the past, and the unique challenges that persist in molecular paleopathology. We offer guidelines to mitigate the impact of these challenges, which will allow for more reliable interpretations of data in this rapidly evolving field of investigation.

Background: Estimation of temporal changes in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission patterns can help to elucidate the impact of preventive strategies and public health policies., Methods: Portuguese HIV-1 subtype B and G pol genetic sequences were appended to global reference data sets to identify country-specific transmission clades. Bayesian birth-death models were used to estimate subtype-specific effective reproductive numbers (Re). Discrete trait analysis (DTA) was used to quantify mixing among transmission groups., Results: We identified 5 subtype B Portuguese clades (26-79 sequences) and a large monophyletic subtype G Portuguese clade (236 sequences). We estimated that major shifts in HIV-1 transmission occurred around 1999 (95% Bayesian credible interval [BCI], 1998-2000) and 2000 (95% BCI, 1998-2001) for subtypes B and G, respectively. For subtype B, Re dropped from 1.91 (95% BCI, 1.73-2.09) to 0.62 (95% BCI,.52-.72). For subtype G, Re decreased from 1.49 (95% BCI, 1.39-1.59) to 0.72 (95% BCI, .63-.8). The DTA suggests that people who inject drugs (PWID) and heterosexuals were the source of most (>80%) virus lineage transitions for subtypes G and B, respectively., Conclusions: The estimated declines in Re coincide with the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy and the scale-up of harm reduction for PWID. Inferred transmission events across transmission groups emphasize the importance of prevention efforts for bridging populations., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

HIV-1 non-B infections have been increasing in Europe for several years. In Germany, subtype A belongs to the most abundant non-B subtypes showing an increasing prevalence of 8.3% among new infections in 2016. Here we trace the origin and examine the current spread of the German HIV-1 subtype A epidemic. Bayesian coalescence and birth-death analyses were performed with 180 German HIV-1 pol sequences and 528 related and publicly available sequences to reconstruct the population dynamics and fluctuations for each of the transmission groups. Our reconstructions indicate two distinct sources of the German subtype A epidemic, with an Eastern European and an Eastern African lineage both cocirculating in the country. A total of 13 German-origin clusters were identified; among these, 6 clusters showed recent activity. Introductions leading to further countrywide spread originated predominantly from Eastern Africa when introduced before 2005. Since 2005, however, spreading introductions have occurred exclusively within the Eastern European clade. Moreover, we observed changes in the main route of subtype A transmission. The beginning of the German epidemic (1985 to 1995) was dominated by heterosexual transmission of the Eastern African lineage. Since 2005, transmissions among German men who have sex with men (MSM) have been increasing and have been associated with the Eastern European lineage. Infections among people who inject drugs dominated between 1998 and 2005. Our findings on HIV-1 subtype A infections provide new insights into the spread of this virus and extend the understanding of the HIV epidemic in Germany. IMPORTANCE HIV-1 subtype A is the second most prevalent subtype worldwide, with a high prevalence in Eastern Africa and Eastern Europe. However, an increase of non-B infections, including subtype A infections, has been observed in Germany and other European countries. There has simultaneously been an increased flow of refugees into Europe and especially into Germany, raising the question of whether the surge in non-B infections resulted from this increased immigration or whether German transmission chains are mainly involved. This study is the first comprehensive subtype A study from a western European country analyzing in detail its phylogenetic origin, the impact of various transmission routes, and its current spread. The results and conclusions presented provide new and substantial insights for virologists, epidemiologists, and the general public health sector. In this regard, they should be useful to those authorities responsible for developing public health intervention strategies to combat the further spread of HIV/AIDS., (Copyright © 2019 American Society for Microbiology.)

Elaboration of Bayesian phylogenetic inference methods has continued at pace in recent years with major new advances in nearly all aspects of the joint modelling of evolutionary data. It is increasingly appreciated that some evolutionary questions can only be adequately answered by combining evidence from multiple independent sources of data, including genome sequences, sampling dates, phenotypic data, radiocarbon dates, fossil occurrences, and biogeographic range information among others. Including all relevant data into a single joint model is very challenging both conceptually and computationally. Advanced computational software packages that allow robust development of compatible (sub-)models which can be composed into a full model hierarchy have played a key role in these developments. Developing such software frameworks is increasingly a major scientific activity in its own right, and comes with specific challenges, from practical software design, development and engineering challenges to statistical and conceptual modelling challenges. BEAST 2 is one such computational software platform, and was first announced over 4 years ago. Here we describe a series of major new developments in the BEAST 2 core platform and model hierarchy that have occurred since the first release of the software, culminating in the recent 2.5 release., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Treatment failure in biofilm-associated bacterial infections is an important healthcare issue. In vitro studies and mouse models suggest that bacteria enter a slow-growing/non-growing state that results in transient tolerance to antibiotics in the absence of a specific resistance mechanism. However, little clinical confirmation of antibiotic tolerant bacteria in patients exists. In this study we investigate a Staphylococcus epidermidis pacemaker-associated endocarditis, in a patient who developed a break-through bacteremia despite taking antibiotics to which the S. epidermidis isolate is fully susceptible in vitro. Characterization of the clinical S. epidermidis isolates reveals in-host evolution over the 16-week infection period, resulting in increased antibiotic tolerance of the entire population due to a prolonged lag time until growth resumption and a reduced growth rate. Furthermore, we observe adaptation towards an increased biofilm formation capacity and genetic diversification of the S. epidermidis isolates within the patient.

The fast evolution of pathogenic viruses has allowed for the development of phylodynamic approaches that extract information about the epidemiological characteristics of viral genomes. Thanks to advances in whole genome sequencing, they can be applied to slowly evolving bacterial pathogens like Mycobacterium tuberculosis. In this study, we investigate and compare the epidemiological dynamics underlying two M. tuberculosis outbreaks using phylodynamic methods. Specifically, we (i) test if the outbreak data sets contain enough genetic variation to estimate short-term evolutionary rates and (ii) reconstruct epidemiological parameters such as the effective reproduction number. The first outbreak occurred in the Swiss city of Bern (1987-2012) and was caused by a drug-susceptible strain belonging to the phylogenetic M. tuberculosis Lineage 4. The second outbreak was caused by a multidrug-resistant (MDR) strain of Lineage 2, imported from the Wat Tham Krabok (WTK) refugee camp in Thailand into California. There is little temporal signal in the Bern data set and moderate temporal signal in the WTK data set. Thanks to its high sampling proportion (90%) the Bern outbreak allows robust estimation of epidemiological parameters despite the poor temporal signal. Conversely, there is much uncertainty in the epidemiological estimates concerning the sparsely sampled (9%) WTK outbreak. Our results suggest that both outbreaks peaked around 1990, although they were only recognized as outbreaks in 1993 (Bern) and 2004 (WTK). Furthermore, individuals were infected for a significantly longer period (around 9 years) in the WTK outbreak than in the Bern outbreak (4-5 years). Our work highlights both the limitations and opportunities of phylodynamic analysis of outbreaks involving slowly evolving pathogens: (i) estimation of the evolutionary rate is difficult on outbreak time scales and (ii) a high sampling proportion allows quantification of the age of the outbreak based on the sampling times, and thus allows for robust estimation of epidemiological parameters., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Tracking recent transmission is a vital part of controlling widespread pathogens such as Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Multiple methods with specific performance characteristics exist for detecting recent transmission chains, usually by clustering strains based on genotype similarities. With such a large variety of methods available, informed selection of an appropriate approach for determining transmissions within a given setting/time period is difficult., Methods: This study combines whole genome sequence (WGS) data derived from 324 isolates collected 2005-2010 in Kinshasa, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), a high endemic setting, with phylodynamics to unveil the timing of transmission events posited by a variety of standard genotyping methods. Clustering data based on Spoligotyping, 24-loci MIRU-VNTR typing, WGS based SNP (Single Nucleotide Polymorphism) and core genome multi locus sequence typing (cgMLST) typing were evaluated., Findings: Our results suggest that clusters based on Spoligotyping could encompass transmission events that occurred almost 200 years prior to sampling while 24-loci-MIRU-VNTR often represented three decades of transmission. Instead, WGS based genotyping applying low SNP or cgMLST allele thresholds allows for determination of recent transmission events, e.g. in timespans of up to 10 years for a 5 SNP/allele cut-off., Interpretation: With the rapid uptake of WGS methods in surveillance and outbreak tracking, the findings obtained in this study can guide the selection of appropriate clustering methods for uncovering relevant transmission chains within a given time-period. For high resolution cluster analyses, WGS-SNP and cgMLST based analyses have similar clustering/timing characteristics even for data obtained from a high incidence setting., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

The origin of Yersinia pestis and the early stages of its evolution are fundamental subjects of investigation given its high virulence and mortality that resulted from past pandemics. Although the earliest evidence of Y. pestis infections in humans has been identified in Late Neolithic/Bronze Age Eurasia (LNBA 5000-3500y BP), these strains lack key genetic components required for flea adaptation, thus making their mode of transmission and disease presentation in humans unclear. Here, we reconstruct ancient Y. pestis genomes from individuals associated with the Late Bronze Age period (~3800 BP) in the Samara region of modern-day Russia. We show clear distinctions between our new strains and the LNBA lineage, and suggest that the full ability for flea-mediated transmission causing bubonic plague evolved more than 1000 years earlier than previously suggested. Finally, we propose that several Y. pestis lineages were established during the Bronze Age, some of which persist to the present day.

The hepatitis B virus (HBV) is one of the most widespread human pathogens known today, yet its origin and evolutionary history are still unclear and controversial. Here, we report the analysis of three ancient HBV genomes recovered from human skeletons found at three different archaeological sites in Germany. We reconstructed two Neolithic and one medieval HBV genome by de novo assembly from shotgun DNA sequencing data. Additionally, we observed HBV-specific peptides using paleo-proteomics. Our results demonstrated that HBV has circulated in the European population for at least 7000 years. The Neolithic HBV genomes show a high genomic similarity to each other. In a phylogenetic network, they do not group with any human-associated HBV genome and are most closely related to those infecting African non-human primates. The ancient viruses appear to represent distinct lineages that have no close relatives today and possibly went extinct. Our results reveal the great potential of ancient DNA from human skeletons in order to study the long-time evolution of blood borne viruses., Competing Interests: BK, JS, FK, DK, EB, AI, CR, SK, DY, SF, HH, TM, SL, HM, SF, NN, KA, SS, AT, AH, AN, JK No competing interests declared, (© 2018, Krause-Kyora et al.)

Drug resistant HIV is a major threat to the long-term efficacy of antiretroviral treatment. Around 10% of ART-naïve patients in Europe are infected with drug-resistant HIV type 1. Hence it is important to understand the dynamics of transmitted drug resistance evolution. Thanks to routinely performed drug resistance tests, HIV sequence data is increasingly available and can be used to reconstruct the phylogenetic relationship among viral lineages. In this study we employ a phylodynamic approach to quantify the fitness costs of major resistance mutations in the Swiss HIV cohort. The viral phylogeny reflects the transmission tree, which we model using stochastic birth-death-sampling processes with two types: hosts infected by a sensitive or resistant strain. This allows quantification of fitness cost as the ratio between transmission rates of hosts infected by drug resistant strains and transmission rates of hosts infected by drug sensitive strains. The resistance mutations 41L, 67N, 70R, 184V, 210W, 215D, 215S and 219Q (nRTI-related) and 103N, 108I, 138A, 181C, 190A (NNRTI-related) in the reverse trancriptase and the 90M mutation in the protease gene are included in this study. Among the considered resistance mutations, only the 90M mutation in the protease gene was found to have significantly higher fitness than the drug sensitive strains. The following mutations associated with resistance to reverse transcriptase inhibitors were found to be less fit than the sensitive strains: 67N, 70R, 184V, 219Q. The highest posterior density intervals of the transmission ratios for the remaining resistance mutations included in this study all included 1, suggesting that these mutations do not have a significant effect on viral transmissibility within the Swiss HIV cohort. These patterns are consistent with alternative measures of the fitness cost of resistance mutations. Overall, we have developed and validated a novel phylodynamic approach to estimate the transmission fitness cost of drug resistance mutations.

Broadly neutralizing antibodies (bnAbs) to HIV-1 can evolve after years of an iterative process of virus escape and antibody adaptation that HIV-1 vaccine design seeks to mimic. To enable this, properties that render HIV-1 envelopes (Env) capable of eliciting bnAb responses need to be defined. Here, we followed the evolution of the V2 apex directed bnAb lineage VRC26 in the HIV-1 subtype C superinfected donor CAP256 to investigate the phenotypic changes of the virus populations circulating before and during the early phases of bnAb induction. Longitudinal viruses that evolved from the VRC26-resistant primary infecting (PI) virus, the VRC26-sensitive superinfecting (SU) virus and ensuing PI-SU recombinants revealed substantial phenotypic changes in Env, with a switch in Env properties coinciding with early resistance to VRC26. Decreased sensitivity of SU-like viruses to VRC26 was linked with reduced infectivity, altered entry kinetics and lower sensitivity to neutralization after CD4 attachment. VRC26 maintained neutralization activity against cell-associated CAP256 virus, indicating that escape through the cell-cell transmission route is not a dominant escape pathway. Reduced fitness of the early escape variants and sustained sensitivity in cell-cell transmission are both features that limit virus replication, thereby impeding rapid escape. This supports a scenario where VRC26 allowed only partial viral escape for a prolonged period, possibly increasing the time window for bnAb maturation. Collectively, our data highlight the phenotypic plasticity of the HIV-1 Env in evading bnAb pressure and the need to consider phenotypic traits when selecting and designing Env immunogens. Combinations of Env variants with differential phenotypic patterns and bnAb sensitivity, as we describe here for CAP256, may maximize the potential for inducing bnAb responses by vaccination.

Phylogenetics and phylodynamics are central topics in modern evolutionary biology. Phylogenetic methods reconstruct the evolutionary relationships among organisms, whereas phylodynamic approaches reveal the underlying diversification processes that lead to the observed relationships. These two fields have many practical applications in disciplines as diverse as epidemiology, developmental biology, palaeontology, ecology, and linguistics. The combination of increasingly large genetic data sets and increases in computing power is facilitating the development of more sophisticated phylogenetic and phylodynamic methods. Big data sets allow us to answer complex questions. However, since the required analyses are highly specific to the particular data set and question, a black-box method is not sufficient anymore. Instead, biologists are required to be actively involved with modeling decisions during data analysis. The modular design of the Bayesian phylogenetic software package BEAST 2 enables, and in fact enforces, this involvement. At the same time, the modular design enables computational biology groups to develop new methods at a rapid rate. A thorough understanding of the models and algorithms used by inference software is a critical prerequisite for successful hypothesis formulation and assessment. In particular, there is a need for more readily available resources aimed at helping interested scientists equip themselves with the skills to confidently use cutting-edge phylogenetic analysis software. These resources will also benefit researchers who do not have access to similar courses or training at their home institutions. Here, we introduce the "Taming the Beast" (https://taming-the-beast.github.io/) resource, which was developed as part of a workshop series bearing the same name, to facilitate the usage of the Bayesian phylogenetic software package BEAST 2., (© The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists.)

Viral phylogenetic methods contribute to understanding how HIV spreads in populations, and thereby help guide the design of prevention interventions. So far, most analyses have been applied to well-sampled concentrated HIV-1 epidemics in wealthy countries. To direct the use of phylogenetic tools to where the impact of HIV-1 is greatest, the Phylogenetics And Networks for Generalized HIV Epidemics in Africa (PANGEA-HIV) consortium generates full-genome viral sequences from across sub-Saharan Africa. Analyzing these data presents new challenges, since epidemics are principally driven by heterosexual transmission and a smaller fraction of cases is sampled. Here, we show that viral phylogenetic tools can be adapted and used to estimate epidemiological quantities of central importance to HIV-1 prevention in sub-Saharan Africa. We used a community-wide methods comparison exercise on simulated data, where participants were blinded to the true dynamics they were inferring. Two distinct simulations captured generalized HIV-1 epidemics, before and after a large community-level intervention that reduced infection levels. Five research groups participated. Structured coalescent modeling approaches were most successful: phylogenetic estimates of HIV-1 incidence, incidence reductions, and the proportion of transmissions from individuals in their first 3 months of infection correlated with the true values (Pearson correlation > 90%), with small bias. However, on some simulations, true values were markedly outside reported confidence or credibility intervals. The blinded comparison revealed current limits and strengths in using HIV phylogenetics in challenging settings, provided benchmarks for future methods' development, and supports using the latest generation of phylogenetic tools to advance HIV surveillance and prevention., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.)