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Forensic feature-comparison examiners compare-or "match"-evidence samples (e.g., fingerprints) to provide judgments about the source of the evidence. Research demonstrates that examiners in select disciplines possess expertise in this task by outperforming novices-yet the psychological mechanisms underpinning this expertise are unclear. This article investigates one implicated mechanism: statistical learning, the ability to learn how often things occur in the environment. This ability is likely important in forensic decision-making as samples sharing rarer statistical information are more likely to come from the same source than those sharing more common information. We investigated 46 fingerprint examiners' and 52 novices' statistical learning of fingerprint categories and application of this knowledge in a source-likelihood judgment task. Participants completed four measures of their statistical learning (frequency discrimination judgments, bounded and unbounded frequency estimates, and source-likelihood judgments) before and after familiarization to the "ground-truth" category frequencies. Compared to novices, fingerprint examiners had superior domain-specific statistical learning across all measures-both before and after familiarization. This suggests that fingerprint expertise facilitates domain-specific statistical learning-something that has important theoretical and applied implications for the development of training programs and statistical databases in forensic science. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Past research suggests that an uncritical or ‘lazy’ style of evaluating evidence may play a role in the development and maintenance of implausible beliefs. We examine this possibility by using a quasi-experimental design to compare how low- and high-quality evidence is evaluated by those who do and do not endorse implausible claims. Seven studies conducted during 2019–2020 provided the data for this analysis (N = 746). Each of the seven primary studies presented participants with high- and/or low-quality evidence and measured implausible claim endorsement and evaluations of evidence persuasiveness (via credibility, value, and/or weight). A linear mixed-effect model was used to predict persuasiveness from the interaction between implausible claim endorsement and evidence quality. Our results showed that endorsers were significantly more persuaded by the evidence than non-endorsers, but both groups were significantly more persuaded by high-quality than low-quality evidence. The interaction between endorsement and evidence quality was not significant. These results suggest that the formation and maintenance of implausible beliefs by endorsers may result from less critical evidence evaluations rather than a failure to analyse. This is consistent with a limited rather than a lazy approach and suggests that interventions to develop analytical skill may be useful for minimising the effects of implausible claims.

Forensic feature-comparison examiners in select disciplines are more accurate than novices when comparing samples of visual evidence. This article examines a key cognitive mechanism that may contribute to this superior visual comparison performance: the ability to learn how often stimuli occur in the environment (distributional statistical learning). We examined the relationship between distributional learning and visual comparison performance and the impact of training on the diagnosticity of distributional information in visual comparison tasks. We compared performance between novices given no training (uninformed novices; n = 32), accurate training (informed novices; n = 32), or inaccurate training (misinformed novices; n = 32) in Experiment 1 and between forensic examiners (n = 26), informed novices (n = 29), and uninformed novices (n = 27) in Experiment 2. Across both experiments, forensic examiners and novices performed significantly above chance in a visual comparison task in which distributional learning was required for high performance. However, informed novices outperformed all participants, and only their visual comparison performance was significantly associated with their distributional learning. It is likely that forensic examiners' expertise is domain specific and doesn't generalize to novel visual comparison tasks. Nevertheless, diagnosticity training could be critical to the relationship between distributional learning and visual comparison performance. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved).

Forensic scientists endeavour to explain complex scientific principles to legal decision-makers with limited scientific training (e.g., police, lawyers, judges, and jurors). Much of the time this communication is limited to written opinions in expert reports. Notwithstanding considerable scientific research and debate about the best way to communicate forensic science opinions, it is unclear how much of the advice has translated into forensic science practice. In conducting this descriptive study, we examined the reporting practices adopted by forensic scientists across a range of forensic science disciplines. Specifically, we used a quantitative content analysis approach to identify the conclusion types and additional information submitted by forensic scientists in proficiency tests during 2016 ("What would be the wording of the Conclusions in your report?"). Our analysis of 500 randomly selected responses in eight disciplines indicated that the conclusion type which has received the most criticism in recent years (categorical statements) remains the preferred means of expression in a clear majority of responses. We also found that the provision of additional information often considered necessary for rational evaluation of the evidence (e.g., information about reliability and validity) was rarely reported. These results suggest limited engagement with recent recommendations and are concerning given the gravity of the legal decisions that hinge on accurate and transparent forensic science communication.

Automatic facial recognition technology (AFR) is increasingly used in criminal justice systems around the world, yet to date there has not been an international survey of public attitudes toward its use. In Study 1, we ran focus groups in the UK, Australia and China (countries at different stages of adopting AFR) and in Study 2 we collected data from over 3,000 participants in the UK, Australia and the USA using a questionnaire investigating attitudes towards AFR use in criminal justice systems. Our results showed that although overall participants were aligned in their attitudes and reasoning behind them, there were some key differences across countries. People in the USA were more accepting of tracking citizens, more accepting of private companies’ use of AFR, and less trusting of the police using AFR than people in the UK and Australia. Our results showed that support for the use of AFR depends greatly on what the technology is used for and who it is used by. We recommend vendors and users do more to explain AFR use, including details around accuracy and data protection. We also recommend that governments should set legal boundaries around the use of AFR in investigative and criminal justice settings.

Expert opinions admitted by courts are not always valid and reliable. However, we know little about how indicators of opinion quality affect the persuasiveness of an expert. In this study 25 Australian magistrates and 22 jury-eligible lay people rated the persuasiveness (via credibility, value and weight) of either a high- or a low-quality expert opinion. Opinion quality was determined using attributes specified in the Expert Persuasion Expectancy (ExPEx) framework: Field, Specialty, Ability and Trustworthiness. Both magistrates and jurors were significantly more persuaded by the high- than the low-quality expert opinion. Magistrates were also significantly more sceptical of the expert opinion than lay people, and when given the opportunity sought information that was logically relevant to their decision. These results suggest that magistrates can differentiate between high- and low-quality expert opinions, but it is unclear whether the information they need for the task is actually available for use during trials.

To examine factors associated with Quitline and pharmacotherapy utilisation in low socioeconomic status (low-SES) smokers enrolled in a smoking cessation trial.Baseline data was used from a large-scale smoking cessation randomised controlled trial (RCT). Logistic regression models were used to examine predictors of treatment utilisation prior to entering the RCT and perceived effectiveness of past and future use.A total of 1047 smokers consented and prior to enrolment 92% had previously tried to quit smoking, 86% had ever used quit support, 83% had used pharmacotherapy at least once and 38% had ever utilised Quitline. For those who had used pharmacotherapies, 71% used NRT, of which 21% had used dual NRT products. In the last 12-months, 27% utilised Quitline and 50% utilised NRT. Ever use of Quitline was negatively associated with self-efficacy to quit (OR: 0.80; 95% CI: 0.68, 0.94 p .01) and positively associated with being diagnosed with a mental health condition (OR: 1.50; 95% CI: 1.01, 2.25 p .05). Recent use of NRT was positively associated with mental health condition (OR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.02, 1.90 p .05) and negatively associated with alcohol consumption (OR: 0.69; 95% CI: 0.52, 0.92 p .01).Past use of Quitline and pharmacotherapy treatment was associated with self-efficacy to quit, sociodemographic variables, mental health conditions and alcohol consumption. Community-based strategies that target smoking, mental health and drug and alcohol problems may overcome some of the barriers that prevent low-SES populations from engaging with smoking cessation support.

Emerging research has demonstrated that statistical learning is a modality-specific ability governed by domain-general principles. Yet limited research has investigated different forms of statistical learning within modality. This paper explores whether there is one unified statistical learning mechanism within the visual modality, or separate task-specific abilities. To do so, we examined individual differences in spatial and nonspatial conditional and distributional statistical learning. Participants completed four visual statistical learning tasks: conditional spatial, conditional nonspatial, distributional spatial, and distributional nonspatial. Performance on all four tasks significantly correlated with each other, and performance on all tasks accounted for a large portion of the variance across tasks (57%). Interestingly, a portion of the variance of task performance (between 11% and 18%) was also accounted for by performance on each of the individual tasks. Our results suggest that visual statistical learning is the result of the interplay between a unified mechanism for extracting conditional and distributional statistical regularities across time and space, and an individual's ability to extract specific types of regularities.

Despite playing a critical role in our criminal justice system, very little is known about the expertise of forensic scientists. Here, we review three disciplines where research has begun to investigate such expertise: handwriting analysis, fingerprint examination, and facial image comparison. We assess expertise against the scientific standard, but conclude that meeting this standard does not provide a sufficiently high benchmark for the forensic sciences. Forensic scientists must demonstrate a minimum standard of performance, the ability to defer judgement in cases at high risk of error, and the ability to effectively communicate the strength of their evidence to factfinders. We discuss the limitations of current forensic science expertise research to adequately capture factors affecting operational accuracy and outline crucial differences between studies assessing perceptual skill and operational accuracy. Finally, we identify key areas for future research and encourage cognitive scientists to engage in forensic science research.

Based on a plenary lecture presented at the 50th Anniversary of the Australian Academy of Forensic Sciences Symposium (November 2017) this article reviews the literature relating to the communication of forensic science evidence using statistical statements. Five dimensions of communication are identified: consistency, sensitivity, coherence, ability and orthodoxy. The review also considers the strengths and weaknesses of lay comprehension as well as opportunities for improving understanding through reflection and collaboration.

While there is an extensive body of literature regarding the factors that influence how juries interpret medical expert statements, there is limited empirical evidence regarding the effects of word choice. The term ‘consistent with’ is widely used in legal proceedings and expert witness statements, so it is important to understand what this term means to a jury. The aim of this research is to understand how potential jurors interpret the phrase ‘consistent with’ in a forensic medical context. Potential jurors were recruited for a survey containing three mock vignettes where the doctor stated that the injury was ‘consistent with’ either self-inflicted injury, accidental injury, or injury by a third party. Participants were asked what the doctor meant, using a range of options taken from the United Nations’ Istanbul Protocol definitions of medico-legal terms used to describe lesions caused by torture. The results from 151 surveys indicate there was no consistent interpretation of the phase within ea...

Human factors and their implications for forensic science have attracted increasing levels of interest across criminal justice communities in recent years. Initial interest centred on cognitive biases, but has since expanded such that knowledge from psychology and cognitive science is slowly infiltrating forensic practices more broadly. This article highlights a series of important findings and insights of relevance to forensic practitioners. These include research on human perception, memory, context information, expertise, decision-making, communication, experience, verification, confidence, and feedback. The aim of this article is to sensitise forensic practitioners (and lawyers and judges) to a range of potentially significant issues, and encourage them to engage with research in these domains so that they may adapt procedures to improve performance, mitigate risks and reduce errors. Doing so will reduce the divide between forensic practitioners and research scientists as well as improve the value and utility of forensic science evidence.

Background and aims Little is known about the factors associated with retention in smoking cessation trials, especially for low-socioeconomic status (low-SES) smokers. This study examined the factors associated with retention of low-SES smokers in the Australian Financial Interventions for Smoking Cessation Among Low-Income Smokers (FISCALS) trial. Design A two-group parallel block randomised open-label trial with allocation concealment. Setting Australia. The study was conducted primarily by telephone-based interviews with nicotine replacement therapy delivered via mail. Participants 1047 low-SES smokers interested in quitting smoking were randomised. Measurements Participants completed computer assisted telephone interviews (CATIs) at baseline, 2-month and 8-month follow-up. Smoking-related, substance use, mental or physical health, general psychological constructs, sociodemographic and recruitment sources association with retention at 8-month follow-up were examined using binary logistic regression. Findings 946 participants (90%) completed the 2-month follow-up interview and 880 participants (84%) completed the 8-month follow-up interview. Retention at 8-months was associated with higher motivation to quit (OR: 1.15; 95% CI: 1.04, 1.27 p

Forensic handwriting examiners currently testify to the origin of questioned handwriting for legal purposes. However, forensic scientists are increasingly being encouraged to assign probabilities to their observations in the form of a likelihood ratio. This study is the first to examine whether handwriting experts are able to estimate the frequency of US handwriting features more accurately than novices. The results indicate that the absolute error for experts was lower than novices, but the size of the effect is modest, and the overall error rate even for experts is large enough as to raise questions about whether their estimates can be sufficiently trustworthy for presentation in courts. When errors are separated into effects caused by miscalibration and those caused by imprecision, we find systematic differences between individuals. Finally, we consider several ways of aggregating predictions from multiple experts, suggesting that quite substantial improvements in expert predictions are possible when a suitable aggregation method is used.

Common law judges have traditionally been concerned about bias and the appearance of bias. Bias is believed to threaten the administration of justice and the legitimacy of legal decision‐making, particularly public confidence in the courts. This article contrasts legal approaches to bias with a range of biases, particularly cognitive biases, familiar to scientists who study human cognition and decision‐making. Research reveals that judges have narrowly conceived the biases that threaten legal decision‐making, insisting that some potential sources of bias are not open to review and that they are peculiarly resistant to bias through legal training and judicial experience. This article explains how, notwithstanding express concern with bias, there has been limited legal engagement with many risks known to actually bias decision‐making. Through examples, and drawing upon scientific research, it questions legal approaches and discusses the implications of more empirically‐based approaches to bias for decision making and institutional legitimacy.

In their 2009 report ‘Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward’ the National Academies of Science (NAS) called for the development of a body of research establishing the limits of the performance of forensic scientists on a range comparison tasks. The NAS proposed that this could be facilitated through collaboration between the forensic sciences and broader research communities. In this paper we outline a range of issues cognitive scientists routinely consider when designing human performance tests. In doing so the aim is to provide forensic scientists with tools to help avoid common research design errors while also laying a common foundation for further collaborations between cognitive and forensic scientists as sought by the NAS.

This article provides an explanation of the duties and responsibilities owed by forensic practitioners (and other expert witnesses) when preparing for and presenting evidence in criminal proceedings. It is written in the shadow of reports by the National Academy of Sciences (US), the National Institute of Standards and Technology (US), the Scottish Fingerprint Inquiry and a recent publication entitled ‘How to cross-examine forensic scientists: A guide for Lawyers’. The article examines potential responses to questions focused on the need for scientific research, validation, uncertainties, limitations and error, contextual bias and the way expert opinions are expressed in reports and oral testimony. Responses and the discussion is developed around thematics such as disclosure, transparency, epistemic modesty and impartiality derived from modern admissibility and procedure rules, codes of conduct, ethical and professional responsibilities and employment contracts. The article explains why forensic practitioners must respond to the rules and expectations of adversarial legal institutions. Simultaneously, in line with accusatorial principles, it suggests that forensic practitioners employed by the state ought to conduct themselves as model forensic scientists.

While the concept of sampling variation is well understood by most researchers in the field of deception detection, previous studies have failed to account for the multiple sources of sampling variation present in typical experimental designs and use participant-level data as the dependant measure in analyses. These aggregated data, however, contain inherent biases that can mislead researchers. We argue that to appropriately test hypotheses and make inferences beyond a particular sample of participants, the decision-level data must be modelled directly. To illustrate how this can be achieved we provide an introduction to generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) for the analysis of deception data and present Monte Carlo simulations demonstrating both the seriousness of the inherent biases present in participant-level data and the benefits of the GLMM approach. These simulations suggest that the empirical Type 1 and Type 2 error rates associated with main effects testing in deception research may be as high ...

Background: Smoking cessation research output should move beyond descriptive research of the health problem to testing interventions that can provide causal data and effective evidence-based solutions. This review examined the number and type of published smoking cessation studies conducted in low-socioeconomic status (low-SES) and disadvantaged population groups. Methods: A systematic database search was conducted for two time periods: 2000–2004 (TP1) and 2008–2012 (TP2). Publications that examined smoking cessation in a low-SES or disadvantaged population were coded by: population of interest, study type (reviews, non-data based publications, data-based publications (descriptive, measurement and intervention research)), and country. Intervention studies were coded in accordance with the Cochrane Effective Practice and Organisation of Care data collection checklist and use of biochemical verification of self-reported abstinence was assessed. Results: 278 citations were included. Research output (i.e., all study types) had increased from TP1 27% to TP2 73% (χ² = 73.13, p &lt, 0.001), however, the proportion of data-based research had not significantly increased from TP1 and TP2: descriptive (TP1 = 23% vs. TP2 = 33%) or intervention (TP1 = 77% vs. TP2 = 67%). The proportion of intervention studies adopting biochemical verification of self-reported abstinence had significantly decreased from TP1 to TP2 with an increased reliance on self-reported abstinence (TP1 = 12% vs. TP2 = 36%). Conclusions: The current research output is not ideal or optimal to decrease smoking rates. Research institutions, scholars and funding organisations should take heed to review findings when developing future research and policy.

The use of pressure (including legal mandates) to encourage individuals with alcohol and other drug (AOD) use issues to enter treatment is widespread. The aims of this study were to examine how legal mandates to enter residential AOD treatment, perceived coercion across sources, and motivation impact upon treatment engagement and retention. To address this aim, 114 clients in residential AOD treatment completed self-report questionnaires with scales measuring these constructs. Facility records regarding treatment retention were also provided. Results indicated that being legally mandated to enter treatment and perceived coercion across sources (legal, relational, etc.) did not independently predict treatment engagement and being legally mandated did not relate to treatment retention. Significant predictors of treatment engagement included treatment motivation, self-efficacy, and peer support. These findings suggest that pressure does not necessarily have a negative impact on AOD treatment.

Background Financial stress is a barrier to successful smoking cessation and a key predictor of relapse. Little is known about the financial situation of low-income Australian daily smokers. This study aims to describe and investigate associations between the financial functioning, tobacco use and quitting behaviours of low income daily smokers. Methods Low-income Australian adult smokers in the ‘Financial Intervention for Smoking Cessation Among Low-income Smokers (FISCALS) randomised clinical trial completed a structured telephone questionnaire. Results The median number of cigarettes typically smoked by the 1047 participants was 23 per day. The median spent on tobacco per week was AU$80. Three quarters (73.0%) reported some financial stress and 43.2% reported smoking-induced deprivation. Financial stress was significantly associated with deprivation (IRR: 1.23, 95% CI 1.21, 1.26, p

The assignment of personal probabilities to form a forensic practitioner's likelihood ratio is a mental operation subject to all the frailties of human memory, perception and judgment. While we agree that beliefs expressed as coherent probabilities are neither ‘right’ nor ‘wrong’ we argue that debate over this fact obscures both the requirement for and consideration of the ‘helpfulness’ of practitioner's opinions. We also question the extent to which a likelihood ratio based on personal probabilities can realistically be expected to ‘encapsulate all uncertainty’. Courts cannot rigorously assess a forensic practitioner's bare assertions of belief regarding evidential strength. At a minimum, information regarding the uncertainty both within and between the opinions of practitioners is required.

Background and Aims Reducing smoking prevalence among smokers from low socio-economic status (SES) is a preventative health priority. Financial stress (e.g. shortage of money or inability to pay bills) may be a major barrier to quitting smoking. This study evaluates the efficacy of a financial education and support programme coupled with pharmacotherapy at improving cessation rates at 8-month follow-up among Australian low SES smokers (people receiving a government pension or allowance). Design A two-group parallel block randomized (ratio 1:1) open-label clinical trial (RCT) with allocation concealment will be conducted. Allocation will be concealed to interviewers at data collection-points. Setting The study will be conducted primarily by telephone with baseline, follow-up interviews and telephone-based support sessions. Nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) delivery will be mail-based. Participants Daily smokers who are interested in quitting smoking and are currently in receipt of government benefits (n=1046) will be recruited through study advertisements placed in newspapers, posters placed in government social assistance agencies and Quitline telephone-based cessation support services. After completion of a baseline computer-assisted telephone interview, participants will be allocated randomly to control or intervention group using a permuted block approach. Intervention and Comparator Participants in both groups will receive 8 weeks of free combination NRT plus Quitline support. Participants in the intervention group will also receive four telephone-delivered financial education and support sessions. Measurements The primary outcome measure will be prolonged abstinence (at 8-month follow-up) assessed using Russell Standard criteria and biochemically verified (urine cotinine). Comments This is the first intervention study to evaluate the potential of co-managing financial stress as a means of enhancing smokers' capacity to quit smoking. Such an intervention may provide a scalable intervention to help low SES smokers to quit.

Over four years ago, the 2009 US National Academy of Sciences report on forensic science was published, revealing that few formal standards existed in the forensic sciences. The second recommendation of the NAS report related to the language of reporting. This two-fold recommendation urged that templates for expert reports be developed and that the language and terminology of the reports and related expert testimony be standardized. This paper offers a response to Recommendation 2 of the NAS report and a research update. Since the release of the NAS report, Standards Australia has developed a set of forensic standards, including one for reporting. In light of Recommendation 2 of the NAS report and the Australian Standard for reporting, we outline current reporting practices of forensic science in the Australian context, and review research about the communication of forensic science, highlighting recent Australian research undertaken at two universities. We discuss the progress made to date in the...

We do not know how often false positive reports are made in a range of forensic science disciplines. In the absence of this information it is important to understand the naive beliefs held by potential jurors about forensic science evidence reliability. It is these beliefs that will shape evaluations at trial. This descriptive study adds to our knowledge about naive beliefs by: (1) measuring jury-eligible (lay) perceptions of reliability for the largest range of forensic science disciplines to date, over three waves of data collection between 2011 and 2016 (n = 674); (2) calibrating reliability ratings with false positive report estimates; and (3) comparing lay reliability estimates with those of an opportunity sample of forensic practitioners (n = 53). Overall the data suggest that both jury-eligible participants and practitioners consider forensic evidence highly reliable. When compared to best or plausible estimates of reliability and error in the forensic sciences these views appear to overestimate reliability and underestimate the frequency of false positive errors. This result highlights the importance of collecting and disseminating empirically derived estimates of false positive error rates to ensure that practitioners and potential jurors have a realistic impression of the value of forensic science evidence.

The standards for expressions of evaluative opinions in the forensic sciences are increasingly being challenged and refined. Where once categorical statements regarding the origin of a trace were standard practice, criminalists are now being encouraged to represent the uncertainty associated with their inferential process by using numerical or verbal likelihood ratios. Although there are valid reasons to support this shift, the approach is not without limitations. Decades of psychological research investigating the interpretation and integration of probabilistic expressions, and the equivalence of verbal and numerical formulations for uncertainty, reveals a disconnect between what is intended by experts and what is understood by decision-makers. In this paper we present an indicative review of the psychological evidence to foster communication and collaboration between forensic scientists and psychologists and reduce instances of miscommunication in our criminal justice system.

The use of legally coerced treatment for substance‐using offenders is now widespread internationally. To justify the continued use of coerced treatment, policy‐makers, practitioners, and researcher...

This letter comments on the report "Forensic science in criminal courts: Ensuring scientific validity of feature-comparison methods" recently released by the President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST). The report advocates a procedure for evaluation of forensic evidence that is a two-stage procedure in which the first stage is "match"/"non-match" and the second stage is empirical assessment of sensitivity (correct acceptance) and false alarm (false acceptance) rates. Almost always, quantitative data from feature-comparison methods are continuously-valued and have within-source variability. We explain why a two-stage procedure is not appropriate for this type of data, and recommend use of statistical procedures which are appropriate.

Financial sanctions are considered a cost-beneficial alternative to incarceration for lesser offences, but their use has limitations. This study investigates the debt burdens of a group of offenders incarcerated in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, and assesses associations with health and social functioning. Between October 2008 and June 2009, 156 participants of a reintegration programme operating in NSW prisons (the Justice Health Connections Project) completed face-to-face structured interviews concerning the nature, amount and impact of their debts. Copies of participants' NSW State Debt Recovery Office (SRDO) records were also obtained. Ninety-five per cent of participants reported debt to the SDRO. Participants who provided an estimate of their debt reported an average of $12,161 owed to the SDRO, compared to their verifiable average of $8,854. Eighteen per cent of participants with SDRO debt had incurred their earliest outstanding fine when they were younger than 18 years old. Sixty-four per cent perceived their SDRO debt as stressful; and 94 per cent reported that their debt was made worse by drugs (92%) and/or fine enforcement actions (50%). Based on the average Australian pension income and repayments of $15 per week, the average SDRO debt would take an ex-inmate 11 years to repay. Given the many challenges faced by these individuals upon re-entry to the community the additional strain imposed by unmanageable financial penalties should not be ignored. Steps are required to ensure that the criminal justice need for retribution is balanced against the benefit of having ex-prisoners re/join and contribute to a safe and law-abiding society.

Courts occasionally permit psychologists to present expert evidence in an attempt to help jurors evaluate eyewitness identification evidence. This paper reviews research assessing the impact of this expert evidence, which we argue should aim to increase jurors' ability to discriminate accurate from inaccurate identifications. With this in mind we identify three different research designs, two indirectly measuring the expert's impact on juror discrimination accuracy and one which directly assesses its effect on this measure. Across a total of 24 experiments, three have used the superior direct methodology, only one of which provides evidence that expert testimony can improve jurors' ability to discriminate between accurate and inaccurate eyewitness identifications.

Aims This paper models the predicted impact of tobacco price increases proposed in the United States and Australia during 2009 on smoking prevalence in 2010 while taking account of the effects of financial stress among smokers on cessation rates. Methods Two models of smoking prevalence were developed for each country. In model 1, prevalence rates were determined by price elasticity estimates. In model 2 price elasticity was moderated by financial stress. Each model was used to estimate smoking prevalence in 2010 in Australia and the United States. Results Proposed price increases resulted in a 1.89% and 7.84% decrease in smoking participation among low socio-economic status (SES) groups in the United States and Australia, respectively. Model 1 overestimated the number of individuals expected to quit in both the United States (0.13% of smokers) and Australia (0.36% of smokers) by failing to take account of the differential effects of the tax on financially stressed smokers. The proportion of low-income smokers under financial stress increased in both countries in 2010 (by 1.06% in the United States and 3.75% in Australia). Conclusions The inclusion of financial stress when modelling the impact of price on smoking prevalence suggests that the population health returns of increased cigarette price will diminish over time. As it is likely that the proportion of low-income smokers under financial stress will also increase in 2010, future population-based approaches to reducing smoking will need to address this factor.

Introduction: Alcohol use and dependence are common among people involved in the criminal justice system but there have been few efforts to assess the utility of diversionary programs for defendants whose offending is related to alcohol use.Method: This paper analyses program completion, health outcomes and recidivism among 202 participants in the Rural Alcohol Diversion (RAD) program, Australia. Logistic regression was used to identify predictors of program completion. Paired t-tests were used to assess changes in alcohol use, general health and mental health from program entry to exit. Recidivism was assessed using Cox proportional hazards modelling.Results: Being male was associated with increased odds of program completion at p = .05. Among participants who completed the program, there were reductions in alcohol use and psychological distress, and improvements in general and mental health. The only predictor of re-offending was number of prior convictions.Conclusions: These findings are suggestive of ...

This article integrates information from varied areas of research to explore the possible implications of financial strain for the endeavours of forensic psychologists. Based upon a review of the literature, it is argued that there is sufficient theoretical grounds and direct and indirect evidence to suggest an association between financial strain and crime that warrants further attention from forensic psychologists. Opportunities for future research and the implications of the available evidence for current best practice are discussed in the context of forensic psychologists as basic and applied scientists, policy evaluators, and justice advocates.

Introduction and Aims. The Magistrates Early Referral Into Treatment (MERIT) program is a diversionary program for people with substance use (primarily illicit drug) problems, based in New South Wales, Australia. The aim of this study was to assess factors relevant to recidivism among MERIT participants. Design and Methods. A longitudinal study utilising administrative data was conducted. MERIT participants entering the program after 1 August 2004 and with a finalisation date of prior to 31 December 2005 were included in the study. Recidivism records for this cohort were obtained for the period 1 August 2004 and 31 December 2007 and linked to MERIT administrative data. Cox proportional hazards modelling was used to identify predictors of recidivism. Results. A total of 1160 MERIT participants were included in the analysis. Compared to non-completers, completion of the MERIT program was associated with a 30% reduction in risk of recidivism. Factors associated with increased risk of recidivism following MERIT included principal drug other than cannabis and higher number of prior convictions. Discussion and Conclusions. Although the design of this study does not permit causal conclusions, these results suggest the MERIT program may be associated with reduced criminal offending. The identification of factors associated with increased risk of recidivism may be helpful in identifying participants in need of higher intensity interventions.[Larney S, Martire KA. Factors affecting criminal recidivism among participants in the Magistrates Early Referral Into Treatment (MERIT) program in New South Wales, Australia. Drug Alcohol Rev 2010;29;684–688]

Under the Evidence Act (Cth, 1995, NSW, 1995, Tas, 2001) the admissibility of expert evidence is determined not only by the qualifications and experience of the expert, but also by the probative value of the testimony itself. These criteria often serve to preclude an eyewitness expert from appearing in court, thereby leaving legal professionals to challenge the reliability of eyewitness identifications themselves. Little is currently known, however, about the knowledge and opinions of legal professionals, in particular public defenders, on eyewitness identification issues. The present study surveys an opportunity sample of Australian legal practitioners, using a modified version of the questionnaire developed by Kassin, Ellsworth, and Smith (1989) in order to compare respondents' answers with those of eyewitness experts. The results of the present survey are encouraging, with public defenders showing both high levels of agreement among themselves, and a consensus with experts on the majority of eyewitness...

Introduction Tobacco smoking co-occurs with behavioural risk factors including diet, alcohol use and obesity. However, the association between behavioural risk factors and heavy smoking (> 20 cig/day) compared to light–moderate smoking is unknown. The link between behavioural risk factors and future smoking for both ex and current smokers is also unknown. This study sought to examine these relationships. It is hypothesised that behavioural risk factors will be more strongly associated with heavy smoking. Method Data from Wave 7 (2007) of the Household and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) survey was analysed using logistic regression to determine relationships between diet (fruit and vegetable consumption, and unhealthy diet choices), alcohol consumption, obesity and physical activity with light–moderate smoking and heavy smoking. The association between these risk factors and future smoking (2008) was assessed for current and ex-smokers (2007). Results Obese respondents were less likely to be light/moderate smokers (RRR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.43, 0.66) but not heavy smokers. Those who consume confectionary weekly were less likely to be light/moderate smokers (RRR: 0.73; 95% CI: 0.61, 0.87), but not heavy smokers. Smokers in 2007 were more likely to continue smoking in 2008 if they consumed 1–4 drinks per occasion (OR: 2.52; 95% CI: 1.13, 5.62). Ex-smokers in 2007 were less likely to relapse in 2008 if they consumed recommended levels of both fruit and vegetables (OR: 0.31; CI: 0.10, 0.91). Conclusion The relationships between heavy smoking and behavioural risk factors differ from moderate–light smoking. Future primary care interventions would benefit from targeting multiple risk factors, particularly for heavy smokers.

OBJECTIVES The aim of this research was to examine the use of quit smoking services and support options in Australia with national survey data to determine whether use of quit smoking services and pharmacotherapy contributes to socioeconomic status (SES) differences in smoking. METHODS Analyses were performed with data from 4 waves of the Australian National Drug Strategy Household Survey between 2001 and 2010. The primary outcomes were the use of quit smoking services or pharmacotherapy. The main predictor variables used were measures of SES including the Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas, income, and education. Other sociodemographic variables were also examined. RESULTS There was no systematic SES difference in the use of services or support options, with some used more by high SES and some used more by low SES. Those with university education (odds ratio [OR] = 0.72; 95% CI = 0.56-0.93) were less likely to use prescription medication. Conversely, those with higher incomes were more likely to use patches, gum, or an inhaler (OR = 1.13; 95% CI = 1.01-1.27). Prescription medication was significantly associated with increased odds for recent cessation, although only among those with lower levels of education (OR = 2.50; 95% CI = 1.94-3.23). Those with higher SES had the greatest odds for recent cessation. CONCLUSIONS The evidence suggests that low-SES smokers use quit services and support options equally compared with high-SES smokers; thus, access does not drive the SES differential in smoking. However, the findings are positive, suggesting that increasing the uptake of prescription medication may help increase cessation rates among low-SES smokers.

Verbal conclusion scales provide a standardized vocabulary that forensic scientists can adopt to describe the amount of support offered by a set of observations with regard to two competing hypotheses. The extent to which these verbal scales can efficiently and accurately communicate strength of support to lay evaluators is, however, an empirical matter of considerable importance. The aim of this paper was to reexamine the results of a recent study measuring lay interpretations of expert verbal phrases (Mullen et al., 2014) and to further improve upon those estimates through the utilization of a membership function approach. Across both the reexamination (n=400) and the new experiment (n=134) 534 participants provided translations of expert verbal conclusion scales used by forensic scientists. Overall, there is compelling evidence that the correspondence between expert intentions and lay interpretations is low, while the potential for miscommunication is high. Consequently, further attention is required to facilitate the development of valid and reliable verbal conclusion scales which clearly communicate expert evaluative opinions.

This paper used national survey data to investigate 'hardcore' smoking as predicted by the 'hardening hypothesis', and to examine the relationship between 'hardcore' smoking and socioeconomic status (SES).Analyses were performed using data from four waves of the Australian National Drug Strategy Household Survey between 2001 and 2010, a large national survey with a sample size of approximately 24,000 participants per wave. The primary outcome variable was 'hardcore' smoking, comprised of the variables: 'no quit attempt in past 12 months'; 'no plan to quit'; and smoking more than 15 cigarettes per day. The main predictor variables used were SES assessed by the Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA), and survey wave. Other sociodemographic variables were also examined.Overall, 'hardcore' smoking remained stable from 2001 to 2010. However, 'hardcore' smoking declined among high-SES smokers (from 1.8% to 1.0%), but not among low-SES smokers (around 3.4%). 'Hardcore' smoking was strongly associated with SEIFA quintile (p0.001). There was a significant interaction effect between top and bottom SEIFA quintiles and wave (p=0.025), with a decline in 'hardcore' smoking measures over the four waves among those in the top two SEIFA quintiles, with odds in 2010 of 0.39 (95% CI 0.17 to 0.87; p=0.012), down from 0.64 (95% CI 0.50 to 0.82; p0.001) in 2001, while 'hardcore' smoking remained stable among those in the bottom two SEIFA quintiles.The results from high SES smokers suggest 'hardcore' smokers are able to quit, but outcomes among low-SES smokers are less encouraging.

Objective: To estimate the annual number of inmate separations from correctional centres in Australia in 2000/01 and 2005/06. Methods: Data on separations were obtained from the websites of each State and Territory government department responsible for prisons. Data on state and national prison population were obtained from the website of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Three different methods of estimation (multiplier, multiplier adjusted for remand separations and back-projection) were applied to State, Territory and national data on prison population and separations in Australia. Results: The median estimate (to the nearest thousand) of the number of inmate separations was 42,000 in 2000/01 and 44,000 in 2005/06 Conclusions: While the precise figures ought to be interpreted with some caution, our estimates suggest that approximately 44,500 separations from prison occurred in Australia in 2005/06. Each of these separation episodes is accompanied by an elevated risk of mortality; therefore, these figures represent a substantial public health concern.

Reducing smoking prevalence among smokers from low socio-economic status (SES) is a preventative health priority. Financial stress (e.g. shortage of money or inability to pay bills) may be a major barrier to quitting smoking. This study evaluates the efficacy of a financial education and support programme coupled with pharmacotherapy at improving cessation rates at 8-month follow-up among Australian low SES smokers (people receiving a government pension or allowance).A two-group parallel block randomized (ratio 1 : 1) open-label clinical trial (RCT) with allocation concealment will be conducted. Allocation will be concealed to interviewers at data collection-points.The study will be conducted primarily by telephone with baseline, follow-up interviews and telephone-based support sessions. Nicotine replacement therapy (NRT) delivery will be mail-based.Daily smokers who are interested in quitting smoking and are currently in receipt of government benefits (n = 1046) will be recruited through study advertisements placed in newspapers, posters placed in government social assistance agencies and Quitline telephone-based cessation support services. After completion of a baseline computer-assisted telephone interview, participants will be allocated randomly to control or intervention group using a permuted block approach.Participants in both groups will receive 8 weeks of free combination NRT plus Quitline support. Participants in the intervention group will also receive four telephone-delivered financial education and support sessions.The primary outcome measure will be prolonged abstinence (at 8-month follow-up) assessed using Russell Standard criteria and biochemically verified (urine cotinine).This is the first intervention study to evaluate the potential of co-managing financial stress as a means of enhancing smokers' capacity to quit smoking. Such an intervention may provide a scalable intervention to help low SES smokers to quit.