41 results on '"Kristina Seftigen"'
Search Results
2. The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
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Ulf Büntgen, Kathy Allen, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Dominique Arseneault, Étienne Boucher, Achim Bräuning, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, Paolo Cherubini, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Christophe Corona, Fabio Gennaretti, Jussi Grießinger, Sebastian Guillet, Joel Guiot, Björn Gunnarson, Samuli Helama, Philipp Hochreuther, Malcolm K. Hughes, Peter Huybers, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Paul J. Krusic, Josef Ludescher, Wolfgang J.-H. Meier, Vladimir S. Myglan, Kurt Nicolussi, Clive Oppenheimer, Frederick Reinig, Matthew W. Salzer, Kristina Seftigen, Alexander R. Stine, Markus Stoffel, Scott St. George, Ernesto Tejedor, Aleyda Trevino, Valerie Trouet, Jianglin Wang, Rob Wilson, Bao Yang, Guobao Xu, and Jan Esper
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Science - Abstract
Tree rings are a crucial archive for Common Era climate reconstructions, but the degree to which methodological decisions influence outcomes is not well known. Here, the authors show how different approaches taken by 15 different groups influence the ensemble temperature reconstruction from the same data.
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- 2021
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3. The spatiotemporal distribution of historical malaria cases in Sweden: a climatic perspective
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Tzu Tung Chen, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Helene Castenbrandt, Franziska Hildebrandt, Mathias Mølbak Ingholt, Jenny C. Hesson, Johan Ankarklev, Kristina Seftigen, and Hans W. Linderholm
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Malaria ,Plasmodium vivax ,Epidemic ,History ,Infectious disease ,GIS ,Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ,RC955-962 ,Infectious and parasitic diseases ,RC109-216 - Abstract
Abstract Background Understanding of the impacts of climatic variability on human health remains poor despite a possibly increasing burden of vector-borne diseases under global warming. Numerous socioeconomic variables make such studies challenging during the modern period while studies of climate–disease relationships in historical times are constrained by a lack of long datasets. Previous studies have identified the occurrence of malaria vectors, and their dependence on climate variables, during historical times in northern Europe. Yet, malaria in Sweden in relation to climate variables is understudied and relationships have never been rigorously statistically established. This study seeks to examine the relationship between malaria and climate fluctuations, and to characterise the spatio-temporal variations at parish level during severe malaria years in Sweden 1749–1859. Methods Symptom-based annual malaria case/death data were obtained from nationwide parish records and military hospital records in Stockholm. Pearson (rp) and Spearman’s rank (rs) correlation analyses were conducted to evaluate inter-annual relationship between malaria data and long meteorological series. The climate response to larger malaria events was further explored by Superposed Epoch Analysis, and through Geographic Information Systems analysis to map spatial variations of malaria deaths. Results The number of malaria deaths showed the most significant positive relationship with warm-season temperature of the preceding year. The strongest correlation was found between malaria deaths and the mean temperature of the preceding June–August (rs = 0.57, p
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- 2021
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4. European warm-season temperature and hydroclimate since 850 CE
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Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Andrea Seim, Paul J Krusic, Jesús Fidel González-Rouco, Johannes P Werner, Edward R Cook, Eduardo Zorita, Jürg Luterbacher, Elena Xoplaki, Georgia Destouni, Elena García-Bustamante, Camilo Andrés Melo Aguilar, Kristina Seftigen, Jianglin Wang, Mary H Gagen, Jan Esper, Olga Solomina, Dominik Fleitmann, and Ulf Büntgen
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climate variability ,climate model simulations ,gridded climate reconstructions ,hydroclimate ,Europe ,past millennium ,Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering ,TD1-1066 ,Environmental sciences ,GE1-350 ,Science ,Physics ,QC1-999 - Abstract
The long-term relationship between temperature and hydroclimate has remained uncertain due to the short length of instrumental measurements and inconsistent results from climate model simulations. This lack of understanding is particularly critical with regard to projected drought and flood risks. Here we assess warm-season co-variability patterns between temperature and hydroclimate over Europe back to 850 CE using instrumental measurements, tree-ring based reconstructions, and climate model simulations. We find that the temperature–hydroclimate relationship in both the instrumental and reconstructed data turns more positive at lower frequencies, but less so in model simulations, with a dipole emerging between positive (warm and wet) and negative (warm and dry) associations in northern and southern Europe, respectively. Compared to instrumental data, models reveal a more negative co-variability across all timescales, while reconstructions exhibit a more positive co-variability. Despite the observed differences in the temperature–hydroclimate co-variability patterns in instrumental, reconstructed and model simulated data, we find that all data types share relatively similar phase-relationships between temperature and hydroclimate, indicating the common influence of external forcing. The co-variability between temperature and soil moisture in the model simulations is overestimated, implying a possible overestimation of temperature-driven future drought risks.
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- 2019
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5. Prospects for dendroanatomy in paleoclimatology – a case study on Picea engelmannii from the Canadian Rockies
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Kristina Seftigen, Marina V. Fonti, Brian Luckman, Miloš Rydval, Petter Stridbeck, Georg von Arx, Rob Wilson, and Jesper Björklund
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Global and Planetary Change ,Stratigraphy ,Paleontology - Abstract
The continuous development of new proxies as well as a refinement of existing tools are key to advances in paleoclimate research and improvements in the accuracy of existing climate reconstructions. Herein, we build on recent methodological progress in dendroanatomy, the analyses of wood anatomical parameters in dated tree rings, and introduce the longest (1585–2014 CE) dendroanatomical dataset currently developed for North America. We explore the potential of dendroanatomy of high-elevation Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) as a proxy of past temperatures by measuring anatomical cell dimensions of 15 living trees from the Columbia Icefield area. X-ray maximum latewood density (MXD) and its blue intensity counterpart (MXBI) have previously been measured, allowing comparison between the different parameters. Our findings highlight anatomical MXD and maximum radial cell wall thickness as the two most promising wood anatomical proxy parameters for past temperatures, each explaining 46 % and 49 %, respectively, of detrended instrumental July–August maximum temperatures over the 1901–1994 period. While both parameters display comparable climatic imprinting at higher frequencies to X-ray derived MXD, the anatomical dataset distinguishes itself from its predecessors by providing the most temporally stable warm season temperature signal. Further studies, including samples from more diverse age cohorts and the adaptation of the regional curve standardization method, are needed to disentangle the ontogenetic and climatic components of long-term signals stored in the wood anatomical traits and to more comprehensively evaluate the potential contribution of this new dataset to paleoclimate research.
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- 2022
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6. Current understanding of groundwater recharge and groundwater drought in Sweden compared to countries with similar geology and climate
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Michelle Nygren, Kristina Seftigen, Markus Giese, Roland Barthel, Deliang Chen, and Moa Stangefelt
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Current (stream) ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Climate change ,Geology ,Economic shortage ,Groundwater recharge ,Water resource management ,Groundwater - Abstract
Recently, groundwater in Sweden has attracted media attention due to supply shortages caused by dry periods and low groundwater levels. About half of Swedish drinking water stems from groundwater. ...
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- 2021
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7. The spatiotemporal distribution of historical malaria cases in Sweden: a climatic perspective
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Johan Ankarklev, Mathias Mølbak Ingholt, Kristina Seftigen, Tzu Tung Chen, Jenny C. Hesson, Helene Castenbrandt, Hans W. Linderholm, Franziska Hildebrandt, and Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist
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0301 basic medicine ,Summer temperature ,medicine.medical_specialty ,Infectious Medicine ,History ,Climate Research ,Climate ,030231 tropical medicine ,Plasmodium vivax ,RC955-962 ,Epidemic ,Infektionsmedicin ,Summer precipitation ,Infectious and parasitic diseases ,RC109-216 ,History, 18th Century ,Historia ,Disease Outbreaks ,Klimatforskning ,History, 17th Century ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine ,parasitic diseases ,Malaria, Vivax ,medicine ,Humans ,Socioeconomic status ,Sweden ,Infectious disease ,Case Study ,biology ,Public health ,Global warming ,Outbreak ,medicine.disease ,biology.organism_classification ,GIS ,Malaria ,030104 developmental biology ,Infectious Diseases ,Geography ,Tropical medicine ,Parasitology ,Spatial variability ,Seasons ,Demography - Abstract
Background Understanding of the impacts of climatic variability on human health remains poor despite a possibly increasing burden of vector-borne diseases under global warming. Numerous socioeconomic variables make such studies challenging during the modern period while studies of climate–disease relationships in historical times are constrained by a lack of long datasets. Previous studies have identified the occurrence of malaria vectors, and their dependence on climate variables, during historical times in northern Europe. Yet, malaria in Sweden in relation to climate variables is understudied and relationships have never been rigorously statistically established. This study seeks to examine the relationship between malaria and climate fluctuations, and to characterise the spatio-temporal variations at parish level during severe malaria years in Sweden 1749–1859. Methods Symptom-based annual malaria case/death data were obtained from nationwide parish records and military hospital records in Stockholm. Pearson (rp) and Spearman’s rank (rs) correlation analyses were conducted to evaluate inter-annual relationship between malaria data and long meteorological series. The climate response to larger malaria events was further explored by Superposed Epoch Analysis, and through Geographic Information Systems analysis to map spatial variations of malaria deaths. Results The number of malaria deaths showed the most significant positive relationship with warm-season temperature of the preceding year. The strongest correlation was found between malaria deaths and the mean temperature of the preceding June–August (rs = 0.57, p Conclusions Unusually warm and/or dry summers appear to have contributed to malaria epidemics due to both indoor winter transmission and the evidenced long incubation and relapse time of P. vivax, but the results also highlight the difficulties in modelling climate–malaria associations. The inter-annual spatial variation of malaria hot-spots further shows that malaria outbreaks were more pronounced in the southern-most region of Sweden in the first half of the nineteenth century compared to the second half of the eighteenth century.
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- 2021
8. Hydroclimate changes over Sweden in the twentieth and twenty-first centuries: a millennium perspective
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Markus Giese, Peng Zhang, Tinghai Ou, Roland Barthel, Kristina Seftigen, and Deliang Chen
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Human systems engineering ,business.industry ,Geography, Planning and Development ,Perspective (graphical) ,Environmental resource management ,Climate change ,Geology ,Natural (archaeology) ,Geography ,Work (electrical) ,Spatial variability ,sense organs ,Water cycle ,business - Abstract
Climate change poses additional risks for natural and human systems including the hydrological cycle, leading to altered temporal and spatial variation of hydroclimatic conditions. This work assess...
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- 2020
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9. Using Blue Intensity from drought-sensitive Pinus sylvestris in Fennoscandia to improve reconstruction of past hydroclimate variability
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Mauricio Fuentes, Jesper Björklund, Kristina Seftigen, and Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist
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010506 paleontology ,Atmospheric Science ,Climate Research ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Dendroclimatology ,01 natural sciences ,Article ,Proxy (climate) ,Klimatforskning ,Dendrochronology ,Natural variability ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Hydroclimate ,Blue Intensity ,biology ,Geovetenskap och miljövetenskap ,Fennoscandia ,Scots pine ,Late winter ,Explained variation ,biology.organism_classification ,Climatology ,Drought sensitivity ,Environmental science ,Tree-ring ,Earth and Related Environmental Sciences ,Humid climate - Abstract
High-resolution hydroclimate proxy records are essential for distinguishing natural hydroclimate variability from possible anthropogenically-forced changes, since instrumental precipitation observations are too short to represent the whole spectrum of natural variability. In Northern Europe, progress in this field has been hampered by a relative lack of long and truly moisture-sensitive proxy records. In this study, we provide the first assessment of the dendroclimatic potential of Blue Intensity (BI) and partial ring-width measurements (latewood and earlywood width series) from a network of cold and drought-prone Pinus sylvestris L. sites in Sweden. Our results show that all tree-ring parameters and sites share a clear and strong sensitivity to warm-season precipitation. The ΔBI parameter, in particular, shows considerable potential for hydroclimate reconstructions, here permitting a cross-validated precipitation reconstruction capable of explaining 56% (1901–2010 period) of regional-scale warm-season high-frequency precipitation variance. Using ΔBI as an alternative to ring-width improves the predictive skill with nearly a 20 percentage points increase in explained variance, reduces signal instability over time as well as allows a broader seasonal window (May–July) to be reconstructed. Additionally, we found that earlywood BI also reflect a positive late winter through early summer temperature signal. These findings emphasize that tree-rings, and in particular wood density parameters such as from BI, are capable of providing fundamental information to advance our understanding of hydroclimate variability in regions with a cool and rather humid climate regime that traditionally has been overlooked in studies of past droughts. Increasing the spatio-temporal coverage of hydroclimate records in northern Europe, and taking full advantage of the opportunities offered by the wood densitometric properties should be considered a research priority. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00382-020-05287-2) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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- 2020
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10. Ensemble standardization constraints on the influence of the tree growth trends in dendroclimatology
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Hans W. Linderholm, Zhengtang Guo, Bao Yang, Feng Shi, Xuemei Shao, Qiuzhen Yin, Fengmei Yang, and Kristina Seftigen
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Atmospheric Science ,Tree (data structure) ,Similarity (network science) ,Ranking ,Climatology ,Range (statistics) ,Curve fitting ,Environmental science ,Dendroclimatology ,Growth curve (biology) ,Secular variation - Abstract
Tree growth trends can affect the interpretation of the response of tree-ring proxies (especially tree-ring width) to climate in the low-frequency band, which in turn may limit quantitative understanding of centennial-scale climate variability. As such, it is difficult to determine if long-term trends in tree-ring measurements are caused by age-dependent growth effects or climate. Here, a trend similarity ranking method is proposed to define the range of tree growth effects on tree-ring width chronologies. This method quantifies the inner and outer boundaries of the tree growth effect following two extreme standardization methods: curve fitting standardization and regional curve standardization. The trend similarity ranking method classifies and detrends tree-ring measurements according to the ranking similarity between the regional growth curve and their long-term trends through curve fitting. This standardization process mainly affects the secular trend in tree-ring chronologies, and has no effect on their inter-annual to multi-decadal variations. Applications of this technique to the Yamal and Torneträsk tree-ring width datasets and the maximum latewood density dataset from northern Scandinavia reveals that multi-centennial and millennial-scale temperature variations in the three regions provide substantial positive contributions to the linear warming trends in the instrumental period, and that the summer warming rate during the 20th century is not unprecedented over the past two millennia in any of the three regions.
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- 2020
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11. Multi-parameter reconstruction of the past 400 years of Carpathian temperatures from tree rings
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Juliana Nogueira, Miloš Rydval, Krešimir Begović, Martin Lexa, Jon Schurman, Yumei Jiang, Georg von Arx, Jesper Björklund, Kristina Seftigen, and Jan Tumajer
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Instrumental data derived from meteorological stations provide a fairly reliable record of climate variability for at least the last century for most parts of Europe. Proxy-based climate reconstructions have been extensively developed throughout the continent over recent decades to extend these records further back in time. However, to date, parts of central and eastern Europe remain underrepresented, leading to gaps in high-resolution climatic information even in recent centuries. This issue is predominantly linked to large uncertainties in existing records and limitations in data quality associated with a generally weak climatic sensitivity of available proxy records. The REPLICATE project, presented here, aims to address this deficiency by utilizing various tree-ring parameters from temperature-sensitive Norway spruce (Picea abies). The samples, collected from treeline or near-treeline environments, will be used to develop a set of temperature reconstructions across four sub-regions of the Carpathian Mountains. By doing so, we aim to contribute to filling in the spatial paleoclimatic and data quality gap in central-eastern Europe. To improve the climatic signal, we utilized a combination of tree ring width (TRW) corrected for non-climatic (disturbance) trends and blue intensity (BI) series derived from scanned images as a surrogate for maximum latewood density. We also developed a novel tree-ring parameter similar to BI based on high-resolution reflected light microscope images of the tree sample surface – termed surface intensity (SI) – which accounts for resolution and color bias limitations commonly encountered in BI datasets. Additionally, traditional thin section-based quantitative wood anatomy (QWA) parameters and their reflected light surface imaging-based counterparts (sQWA) were also included. Integrating this range of tree-ring parameters in a complementary fashion helps isolate, optimize and extract stronger climatic signals by accounting for and minimizing a range of parameter-specific limitations and biases, yielding improved calibration with a more accurate representation of low-frequency climatic trends and high-frequency extremes. From these multi-parameter tree-ring chronologies, annually resolved, robust, high-quality summer temperature reconstructions, extending to the early to mid-17th century, are under development for four Carpathian locations (i.e., northern Slovakia, western Ukraine, northern and central Romania). Initial results indicate that the reconstructions based on such a multi-parameter approach can produce paleoclimatic records with reduced uncertainty that explain between 50% and 60% of the regional temperature variability. These reconstructions will contribute to a more highly resolved temperature dataset in a part of Europe with considerable research potential, resulting in an improved spatial representation of past European temperature fluctuations. Also, by providing a reliable historical context to evaluate return periods and magnitudes of temperature extremes, they will contribute to assessing potential future socioeconomic impacts of climate change (e.g., on agriculture) and developing possible mitigation solutions.
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- 2022
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12. Reply on RC1
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Kristina Seftigen
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- 2022
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13. The Origin of Tree‐Ring Reconstructed Summer Cooling in Northern Europe During the 18th Century Eruption of Laki
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Julie Edwards, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Björn E. Gunnarson, Charlotte Pearson, Kristina Seftigen, Georg Arx, and Hans W. Linderholm
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Atmospheric Science ,Paleontology ,Oceanography - Published
- 2022
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14. Supplementary material to 'Prospects for dendroanatomy in paleoclimatology – a case study on Picea engelmannii from the Canadian Rockies'
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Kristina Seftigen, Marina V. Fonti, Brian Luckman, Miloš Rydval, Petter Stridbeck, Georg von Arx, Rob Wilson, and Jesper Björklund
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- 2022
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15. Disentangling the multi-faceted growth patterns of primary Picea abies forests in the Carpathian arc
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Miroslav Svoboda, Radek Bače, Volodymyr Trotsiuk, Pavel Janda, Martin Dušátko, Kristina Seftigen, Miloš Rydval, Vojtěch Čada, Martin Mikoláš, Jonathan S. Schurman, and Jesper Björklund
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0106 biological sciences ,Atmospheric Science ,Global and Planetary Change ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,biology ,Variance (land use) ,Forestry ,Picea abies ,Residual ,biology.organism_classification ,01 natural sciences ,Tree (data structure) ,Disturbance (ecology) ,Dendrochronology ,Environmental science ,Spatial variability ,Physical geography ,Precipitation ,Agronomy and Crop Science ,010606 plant biology & botany ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
A tree’s radial growth sequence can be thought of as an aggregate of different growth components such as age and size limitations, presence or absence of disturbance events, continuous impact of climate variability and variance induced by unknown origin. The potentially very complex growth patterns with prominent temporal and spatial variability imply that our understanding of climate-vegetation feedbacks essentially benefits from the expansion of large tree ring networks into data-poor regions, and our ability to disentangle growth constraints by comparing ring series at multiple scales. In this study, we analyze Central-Eastern Europe’s most substantial assemblage of primary Norway spruce forests found in the Carpathian arc. The vast data set, >10,000 tree-ring series, is stratified along a prominent gradient in climate response space over four separate landscapes. We integrated curve intervention detection and dendroclimatic standardization to decompose tree growth variance into climatic, disturbance and residual components to explore the behavior of the components over increasingly larger spatial hierarchies. We show that the residual variance of unknown origin is the most prominent variance in individual Carpathian spruce trees, but at larger spatial hierarchies, climate variance dominates. The variance induced by climate was further explored with common correlation analyses, growth response to extreme climate years and forward modeling of tree growth to identify leading modes of climate response, and potentially non-linear and mixed climate response patterns. We find that the climatic response of the different forest landscapes overall can be described as an asymptotic response to June and July temperatures, most likely intermixed with influence from winter precipitation. In the collection of landscapes, Southern Romania stands out as being the least temperature sensitive and most likely exhibiting the most complicated mixed temperature and moisture limitation.
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- 2019
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16. Partly decoupled tree-ring width and leaf phenology response to 20th century temperature change in Sweden
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Petter Stridbeck, Jesper Björklund, Mauricio Fuentes, Björn E. Gunnarson, Anna Maria Jönsson, Hans W. Linderholm, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, Cecilia Olsson, David Rayner, Eva Rocha, Peng Zhang, and Kristina Seftigen
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Ecology ,Plant Science - Published
- 2022
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17. The influence of decision-making in tree ring-based climate reconstructions
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Guobao Xu, Christophe Corona, Rob Wilson, Ulf Büntgen, Josef Ludescher, Kathy Allen, Dominique Arseneault, Alexander V. Kirdyanov, Wolfgang Jens-Henrik Meier, Joel Guiot, Paolo Cherubini, Markus Stoffel, Clive Oppenheimer, Björn E. Gunnarson, Sebastian Guillet, Kristina Seftigen, A. Stine, Bao Yang, A. M. Trevino, Kevin J. Anchukaitis, Matthew W. Salzer, Malcolm K. Hughes, Jianglin Wang, Scott St. George, Kurt Nicolussi, Fabio Gennaretti, Achim Bräuning, Peter Huybers, Samuli Helama, Paul J. Krusic, Olga V. Churakova (Sidorova), Jan Esper, Vladimir S. Myglan, Valerie Trouet, Ernesto Tejedor, Philipp Hochreuther, Snigdhansu Chatterjee, Jussi Grießinger, Frederick Reinig, Étienne Boucher, Büntgen, Ulf [0000-0002-3821-0818], Anchukaitis, Kevin J [0000-0002-8509-8080], Arseneault, Dominique [0000-0002-3419-2480], Bräuning, Achim [0000-0003-3106-4229], Churakova Sidorova, Olga V [0000-0002-1687-1201], Grießinger, Jussi [0000-0001-6103-2071], Helama, Samuli [0000-0002-9777-3354], Hughes, Malcolm K [0000-0003-1062-3167], Kirdyanov, Alexander V [0000-0002-6797-4964], Nicolussi, Kurt [0000-0002-1737-4119], Oppenheimer, Clive [0000-0003-4506-7260], Reinig, Frederick [0000-0001-6839-8340], Seftigen, Kristina [0000-0001-5555-5757], Stine, Alexander R [0000-0002-1676-5572], Stoffel, Markus [0000-0003-0816-1303], St George, Scott [0000-0002-0945-4944], Tejedor, Ernesto [0000-0001-6825-3870], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Centre de recherche sur la dynamique du système Terre (GEOTOP), Université de Montréal (UdeM)-McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]-École Polytechnique de Montréal (EPM)-Concordia University [Montreal]-Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR)-Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM)-Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT), Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), École Polytechnique de Montréal (EPM)-McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada]-Université de Montréal (UdeM)-Université du Québec en Abitibi-Témiscamingue (UQAT)-Université du Québec à Rimouski (UQAR)-Concordia University [Montreal]-Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), University of St Andrews. School of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of St Andrews. Scottish Oceans Institute, Anchukaitis, Kevin J. [0000-0002-8509-8080], Churakova (Sidorova), Olga V. [0000-0002-1687-1201], Hughes, Malcolm K. [0000-0003-1062-3167], Kirdyanov, Alexander V. [0000-0002-6797-4964], Stine, Alexander R. [0000-0002-1676-5572], and St. George, Scott [0000-0002-0945-4944]
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141 ,704/106/694 ,010506 paleontology ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Science ,General Physics and Astronomy ,Climate change ,Palaeoclimate ,01 natural sciences ,Article ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,Paleoclimatology ,SDG 13 - Climate Action ,Dendrochronology ,ddc:550 ,[SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Research data ,ddc:333.7-333.9 ,13 Climate Action ,GE ,Multidisciplinary ,Northern Hemisphere ,DAS ,General Chemistry ,706/648/697 ,Geography ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,704/106/413 ,GE Environmental Sciences - Abstract
Tree-ring chronologies underpin the majority of annually-resolved reconstructions of Common Era climate. However, they are derived using different datasets and techniques, the ramifications of which have hitherto been little explored. Here, we report the results of a double-blind experiment that yielded 15 Northern Hemisphere summer temperature reconstructions from a common network of regional tree-ring width datasets. Taken together as an ensemble, the Common Era reconstruction mean correlates with instrumental temperatures from 1794–2016 CE at 0.79 (p, Tree rings are a crucial archive for Common Era climate reconstructions, but the degree to which methodological decisions influence outcomes is not well known. Here, the authors show how different approaches taken by 15 different groups influence the ensemble temperature reconstruction from the same data.
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- 2021
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18. The utility of bulk wood density for tree-ring research
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Tom De Mil, Patrick Fonti, Georg von Arx, Petter Stridbeck, Jesper Björklund, Anna Neycken, and Kristina Seftigen
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0106 biological sciences ,Offset (computer science) ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Ecology ,Sample (material) ,Tree allometry ,Soil science ,Plant Science ,Dendroclimatology ,15. Life on land ,01 natural sciences ,%22">Pinus ,Dendrochronology ,Proxy (statistics) ,Intensity (heat transfer) ,010606 plant biology & botany ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Mathematics - Abstract
Bulk wood density measurements are recognized for their utility in ecology, industry, and biomass estimations. In tree-ring research, microdensitometric techniques are widely used, but their ability to determine the correct central tendency has been questioned. Though rarely used, it may be possible to use bulk wood density as a tool to check the accuracy of and even correct microdensitometric measurements. Since measuring bulk wood density in parallel with X-ray densitometry is quickly and easily done, we suspect that its omission is largely due to a lack of awareness of the procedure and/or its importance. In this study, we describe a simple protocol for measuring bulk wood density tailored for tree-ring researchers and demonstrate a few possible applications. To implement real-world examples of the applications, we used a sample of existing X-ray and Blue Intensity (BI) measurements from 127 living and dead Pinus sylvestris trees from northern Sweden to produce new measurements of bulk wood density. We can confirm that the central tendency in this sample material is offset using X-ray densitometry and that the diagnosis and correction of X-ray density is easily done using bulk wood density in linear transfer functions. However, this approach was not suitable for our BI measurements due to heavy discoloration. Nevertheless, we were able to use bulk wood density to diagnose and improve the use of deltaBI (latewood BI – earlywood BI) with regard to its overall trends and multi-centennial variability in a dendroclimatological application. Moreover, we experimented with percent of latewood width, scaled with bulk wood density, as a time- and cost-effective proxy for annual ring density. Although our reconstruction only explains about half of the variation in ring density, it is most likely superior to using fixed literature values of density in allometric equations aimed at biomass estimations. With this study, we hope to raise new awareness regarding the versatility and importance of bulk wood density for dendrochronology by demonstrating its simplicity, relevance, and applicability.
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- 2021
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19. Cell size and wall dimensions drive distinct variability of earlywood and latewood density in Northern Hemisphere conifers
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Fritz H. Schweingruber, Kristina Seftigen, David Frank, Marco Carrer, Henri E. Cuny, Georg von Arx, Patrick Fonti, Marina V. Bryukhanova, Jesper Björklund, and Daniele Castagneri
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0106 biological sciences ,Xylem function ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Physiology ,Climate ,Tree-ring network ,Plant Science ,Dendroclimatology ,Biology ,Atmospheric sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Cell size ,Plant science ,Cell Wall ,Plant Cells ,Ring width ,Tracheid anatomy ,Wood density ,Sensitivity analyses ,Cell Size ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Ecology ,Temperature ,Northern Hemisphere ,Xylem ,15. Life on land ,Wood ,Europe ,Tracheophyta ,Tracheid ,010606 plant biology & botany - Abstract
Interannual variability of wood density - an important plant functional trait and environmental proxy - in conifers is poorly understood. We therefore explored the anatomical basis of density. We hypothesized that earlywood density is determined by tracheid size and latewood density by wall dimensions, reflecting their different functional tasks. To determine general patterns of variability, density parameters from 27 species and 349 sites across the Northern Hemisphere were correlated to tree-ring width parameters and local climate. We performed the same analyses with density and width derived from anatomical data comprising two species and eight sites. The contributions of tracheid size and wall dimensions to density were disentangled with sensitivity analyses. Notably, correlations between density and width shifted from negative to positive moving from earlywood to latewood. Temperature responses of density varied intraseasonally in strength and sign. The sensitivity analyses revealed tracheid size as the main determinant of earlywood density, while wall dimensions become more influential for latewood density. Our novel approach of integrating detailed anatomical data with large-scale tree-ring data allowed us to contribute to an improved understanding of interannual variations of conifer growth and to illustrate how conifers balance investments in the competing xylem functions of hydraulics and mechanical support.
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- 2017
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20. Assessing non-linearity in European temperature-sensitive tree-ring data
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Björn E. Gunnarson, Bård Støve, Alma Piermattei, Peter Thejll, Kristina Seftigen, Miloš Rydval, Jesper Björklund, Fredrik Charpentier Ljungqvist, and Ulf Büntgen
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0106 biological sciences ,Temperature sensitivity ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Ecology ,Autocorrelation ,Non linearity ,Plant Science ,Dendroclimatology ,Atmospheric sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Computer Science::Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition ,Maximum density ,Temperature sensitive ,Tree ring data ,Geology ,010606 plant biology & botany ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Parametric statistics - Abstract
We test the application of parametric, non-parametric, and semi-parametric calibration models for reconstructing summer (June–August) temperature from a set of tree-ring width and density data on the same dendro samples from 40 sites across Europe. By comparing the performance of the three calibration models on pairs” of tree-ring width (TRW) and maximum density (MXD) or maximum blue intensity (MXBI), we test whether a non-linear temperature response is more prevalent in TRW or MXD (MXBI) data, and whether it is associated with the temperature sensitivity and/or autocorrelation structure of the dendro parameters. We note that MXD (MXBI) data have a significantly stronger temperature response than TRW data as well as a lower autocorrelation that is more similar to that of the instrumental temperature data, whereas TRW exhibits a redder” variability continuum. This study shows that the use of non-parametric calibration models is more suitable for TRW data, while parametric calibration is sufficient for both MXD and MXBI data – that is, we show that TRW is by far the more non-linear proxy. publishedVersion
- Published
- 2020
21. Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process-based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear-edges
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Kristina Seftigen, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Fidel González Rouco, Antonio Gazol, J. Julio Camarero, Gabriel Sangüesa-Barreda, Raúl Sánchez-Salguero, Emilia Gutiérrez, and Juan Carlos Linares
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0106 biological sciences ,Mediterranean climate ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Climate ,Climate Change ,Species distribution ,Climate change ,Growing season ,Forests ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Trees ,Environmental Chemistry ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,General Environmental Science ,Global and Planetary Change ,Ecology ,biology ,Global warming ,Scots pine ,Models, Theoretical ,biology.organism_classification ,Droughts ,Abies alba ,Spain ,Threatened species ,Environmental science ,Physical geography - Abstract
Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought-prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear-edges) should be particularly threatened. Here we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris, and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear-edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree-ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process-based Vaganov-Shashkin Lite growth model and climate-growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO2 emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear-edge. By contrast, growth of high-elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of –10.7% and –16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear-edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear-edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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- 2016
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22. Dendroclimatic potential of dendroanatomy in temperature-sensitive Pinus sylvestris
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Georg von Arx, Patrick Fonti, Jesper Björklund, Kristina Seftigen, and Daniel Nievergelt
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0106 biological sciences ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Ecology ,Resolution (electron density) ,Plant Science ,Atmospheric sciences ,01 natural sciences ,%22">Pinus ,Environmental science ,Temperature sensitive ,Intensity (heat transfer) ,Tree line ,010606 plant biology & botany ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
The most frequently and successfully used tree-ring parameters for the study of temperature variations are ring width and maximum latewood density (MXD). MXD is preferred over ring width due to a more prominent association with temperature. In this study we explore the dendroclimate potential of dendroanatomy based on the first truly well replicated dataset. Twenty-nine mature living Pinus sylvestris trees were sampled in North-eastern Finland at the cool and moist boreal forest zone, close to the latitudinal tree line, where ring width, X-ray MXD as well as the blue intensity counterpart MXBI were compared with dendroanatomical parameters. Maximum radial cell wall thickness as well as anatomical MXD and latewood density appeared to be the most promising parameters for temperature reconstruction. In fact, these parameters compare favorably to MXD derived from X-ray techniques as well as MXBI, in terms of shared variation and temperature correlations across frequencies and over time. The reasons for these results are thought to be the unprecedentedly high measurement resolution of the anatomical technique, which provide the optimal resolution – the cell – whereas X-ray techniques have a slightly lower resolution and BI techniques even lower. While the results of this study are encouraging, further tests on longer and multigenerational chronologies are required to more generally and fully assess the dendroclimate potential of anatomical parameters.
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- 2020
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23. A 970-year-long summer temperature reconstruction from Rogen, west-central Sweden, based on blue intensity from tree rings
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Juan-Carlos Aravena, Björn E. Gunnarson, Riikka Salo, Mauricio Fuentes, Peng Zhang, Hans W. Linderholm, Kristina Seftigen, and Jesper Björklund
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Delta ,010506 paleontology ,Archeology ,Climate Research ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Pinus sylvestris L ,01 natural sciences ,Klimatforskning ,Spatial representation ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Earth-Surface Processes ,Global and Planetary Change ,Ecology ,biology ,Scots pine ,Northern Hemisphere ,Paleontology ,1000 years ,blue intensity ,biology.organism_classification ,Biological noise ,temperature reconstruction ,tree rings ,MXD ,Climatology ,Scandinavia ,Tree line ,Intensity (heat transfer) ,Geology ,Chronology - Abstract
To assess past climate variability in west-central Scandinavia, a new 972-year-long temperature reconstruction, based on adjusted delta blue intensity (ΔBIadj), was created. Presently, it is the longest blue intensity chronology in Fennoscandia and the third longest in the northern hemisphere. Measurements were obtained from 119 tree line Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) samples from Rogen, in the central Scandinavian Mountains, Sweden. Early and latewood blue intensity absorption data were used to create ΔBIadj. The data were detrended using a signal-free regional curve standardization method (RSFi) to minimize biological noise and maximize low-frequency climate information. The Rogen ΔBIadj chronology has a substantially stronger temperature signal at inter-annual timescales than the corresponding tree-ring width (RW) chronology, and it displays good spatial representation for the south-central parts of Scandinavia. The ΔBIadj summer (June through August) temperature reconstruction, extending back to 1038 CE, exhibits three warm periods in 1040–1190 CE, 1370–1570 CE and the 20th century and one extended cold period between 1570 and 1920 CE. Regional summer temperature anomalies are associated with a Scandinavian–Greenland dipole sea-level pressure pattern, which has been stable for the past several centuries. Major volcanic eruptions produce distinct anomalies of ΔBIadj indices indicating cooling of summer temperatures in the subsequent years. Our results show that ΔBIadj from Pinus sylvestris in Scandinavia is a suitable proxy providing opportunities to explore past temperature variability at various frequencies, atmospheric dynamics and variability in external forcing. Nevertheless, long-term trend differences with RW imply that further research is needed to fully understand the application of this technique in dendroclimatology.
- Published
- 2018
24. Fennoscandia revisited: a spatially improved tree-ring reconstruction of summer temperatures for the last 900 years
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Mauricio Fuentes, Hans W. Linderholm, Jesper Björklund, Björn E. Gunnarson, and Kristina Seftigen
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010506 paleontology ,geography ,Atmospheric Science ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,Vulcanian eruption ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,biology ,Scots pine ,Climate change ,Dendroclimatology ,biology.organism_classification ,01 natural sciences ,Altitude ,13. Climate action ,Ocean gyre ,Climatology ,Dendrochronology ,Maximum density ,Geology ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
A contribution to the 2k Network. ABSTRACT: Despite the spatially homogenous summer temperature pattern in Fennoscandia there are large spreads among the many existing reconstructions resulting in an uncertainty in the timing and amplitude of past changes. Also there has been a general bias towards northernmost Fennoscandia. In an attempt to provide a more spatially coherent view of summer (June–August JJA) temperature variability within the last millennium we utilized seven density and three blue intensity Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) chronologies collected from the altitudinal (Scandinavian Mountains) and latitudinal (northernmost part) treeline. To attain a JJA temperature signal as strong as possible as well as preserving multicentury scale variability we used a new tree ring parameter where the earlywood information is removed from the maximum density and blue intensity and a modified signal free standardization method. Two skilful reconstructions for the period 1100–2006 CE were made one regional reconstruction based on an average of the chronologies and one field (gridded) reconstruction. The new reconstructions were shown to have much improved spatial representations compared to those based on data from only northern sites thus making it more valid for the whole region. An examination of some of the forcings of JJA mean temperatures in the region shows an association with sea surface temperature over the eastern North Atlantic but also the subpolar and subtropical gyres. Moreover using Superposed Epoch Analysis a significant cooling in the year following a volcanic eruption was noted and for the largest explosive eruptions the effect could remain for up to 4 years. This new improved reconstruction provides a mean to reinforce our understanding of forcings on summer temperatures in the North European sector.
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- 2015
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25. Response file for all reviews
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Kristina Seftigen
- Published
- 2017
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26. Supplementary material to 'Hydroclimate variability in Scandinavia over the last millennium – insights from a climate model-proxy data comparison'
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Kristina Seftigen, Hugues Goosse, Francois Klein, and Deliang Chen
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- 2017
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27. Using adjusted Blue Intensity data to attain high-quality summer temperature information: A case study from Central Scandinavia
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Peng Zhang, Hans W. Linderholm, Björn E. Gunnarson, Kristina Seftigen, and Jesper Björklund
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Archeology ,Global and Planetary Change ,Ecology ,biology ,Climatology ,Scots pine ,Paleontology ,Environmental science ,biology.organism_classification ,Atmospheric sciences ,Earth-Surface Processes - Abstract
The inexpensive Blue Intensity proxy has been considered a complement or surrogate to maximum latewood density (MXD), but is associated with biases from differential staining between sapwood and heartwood and also between deadwood samples and living-wood samples that compromise centennial-scale information. Here, we show that, with some minor adjustments, ΔBlue Intensity (ΔBI) is comparable with MXD or ΔDensity (Δ = the difference or contrast between latewood and earlywood density) in dendroclimatological reconstructions of summer temperatures in the Central Scandinavian region, using Pinus sylvestris L. (Scots pine), on annual and multi-centennial timescales. By using ΔBI, this bias is significantly reduced, but the contrast between earlywood and latewood in BI is altered with degree of staining, while for density it is not. Darker deadwood samples have a reduced contrast compared with the lighter living-wood samples that make ΔBI and ΔDensity chronologies diverge. Here, we quantify this behaviour in BI and offer an adjustment that can reduce this bias. The adjustment can be derived on independent samples, so in future work on BI, parallel density measurements are not necessary. We apply this methodology to two Central Scandinavian Scots pine chronologies that averaged into a composite is able to reconstruct summer temperatures with an explained variance in excess of 60% in each verification period using a split sample calibration verification procedure. Although the amount of data used to derive this contrast adjustment produces desirable results, more tests are needed to confirm its performance, and we suggest that future work on the BI proxy should aim for a small subset of parallel BI and density measurements while the bulk of the data is only measured with the BI technique. This is to ensure that the adjustment is continuously updated with new data and that the conclusions derived here are robust.
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- 2014
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28. A tree-ring field reconstruction of Fennoscandian summer hydroclimate variability for the last millennium
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Kristina Seftigen, Edward R. Cook, Hans W. Linderholm, and Jesper Björklund
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Atmospheric Science ,Geography ,North Atlantic oscillation ,Climatology ,Evapotranspiration ,Global warming ,Period (geology) ,Dendrochronology ,Context (language use) ,Precipitation ,Water cycle - Abstract
Hydroclimatological extremes, such as droughts and floods, are expected to increase in frequency and intensity with global climate change. An improved knowledge of its natural variability and the underlying physical mechanisms for changes in the hydrological cycle will help understand the response of extreme hydroclimatic events to climate warming. This study presents the first gridded hydroclimatic reconstruction (0.5° × 0.5° grid resolution), as expressed by the warm season Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), for most of Fennoscandia. A point-by-point regression approach is used to develop the reconstruction from a network of moisture sensitive tree-ring chronologies spanning over the past millennium. The reconstruction gives a unique opportunity to examine the frequency, severity, persistence, and spatial characteristics of Fennoscandian hydroclimatic variability in the context of the last 1,000 years. The full SPEI reconstruction highlights the seventeenth century as a period of frequent severe and widespread hydroclimatic anomalies. Although some severe extremes have occurred locally throughout the domain over the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries, the period is surprisingly free from any spatially extensive anomalies. The twentieth century is not anomalous in terms of the number of severe and spatially extensive hydro climatic extremes in the context of the last millennium. Principle component analysis reveals that there are two dominant modes of spatial moisture variability across Fennoscandia. The same patterns are evident in the observational record and in the reconstructed dataset over the instrumental era and two paleoperiods. The 500 mb pressure patterns associated with the two modes suggests the importance of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation.
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- 2014
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29. Blue intensity and density from northern Fennoscandian tree rings, exploring the potential to improve summer temperature reconstructions with earlywood information
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Jesper Björklund, Kristina Seftigen, Björn E. Gunnarson, Jan Esper, and Hans W. Linderholm
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lcsh:GE1-350 ,Global and Planetary Change ,biology ,Stratigraphy ,lcsh:Environmental protection ,Scots pine ,Paleontology ,biology.organism_classification ,Latitude ,lcsh:Environmental pollution ,Climatology ,lcsh:TD172-193.5 ,Environmental science ,lcsh:TD169-171.8 ,lcsh:Environmental sciences - Abstract
Here we explore two new tree-ring parameters, derived from measurements of wood density and blue intensity (BI). The new proxies show an increase in the interannual summer temperature signal compared to established proxies, and present the potential to improve long-term performance. At high latitudes, where tree growth is mainly limited by low temperatures, radiodensitometric measurements of wood density, specifically maximum latewood density (MXD), provides a temperature proxy that is superior to that of tree-ring widths. The high cost of developing MXD has led to experimentation with a less expensive method using optical flatbed scanners to produce a new proxy, herein referred to as maximum latewood blue absorption intensity (abbreviated MXBI). MXBI is shown to be very similar to MXD on annual timescales but less accurate on centennial timescales. This is due to the fact that extractives, such as resin, stain the wood differentially from tree to tree and from heartwood to sapwood. To overcome this problem, and to address similar potential problems in radiodensitometric measurements, the new parameters Δblue intensity (ΔBI) and Δdensity are designed by subtracting the ambient BI/density in the earlywood, as a background value, from the latewood measurements. As a case-study, based on Scots pine trees from Northern Sweden, we show that Δdensity can be used as a quality control of MXD values and that the reconstructive performance of warm-season mean temperatures is more focused towards the summer months (JJA – June, July, August), with an increase by roughly 20% when also utilising the interannual information from the earlywood. However, even though the new parameter ΔBI experiences an improvement as well, there are still puzzling dissimilarities between Δdensity and ΔBI on multicentennial timescales. As a consequence, temperature reconstructions based on ΔBI will presently only be able to resolve information on decadal-to-centennial timescales. The possibility of trying to calibrate BI into a measure of lignin content or density, similarly to how radiographic measurements are calibrated into density, could be a solution. If this works, only then can ΔBI be used as a reliable proxy in multicentennial-scale climate reconstructions.
- Published
- 2014
30. Radial growth of Norway spruce and Scots pine: effects of nitrogen deposition experiments
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Hans W. Linderholm, Kristina Seftigen, and Filip Moldan
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geography ,Watershed ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,biology ,fungi ,Scots pine ,Drainage basin ,chemistry.chemical_element ,Forestry ,Picea abies ,Plant Science ,biology.organism_classification ,Nitrogen ,Plant ecology ,chemistry ,Agronomy ,Forest ecology ,Botany ,Dendrochronology ,Environmental science - Abstract
The growth patterns of annually resolved tree rings are good indicators of local environmental changes, making dendrochronology a valuable tool in air pollution research. In the present study, tree-ring analysis was used to assess the effects of 16 years (1991–2007) of chronic nitrogen (N) deposition, and 10 years (1991–2001) of reduced nitrogen input, on the radial growth of Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growing in the experimental area of Lake Gardsjon, southwest Sweden. In addition to the ambient input of c. 15 kg N ha−1 year−1, dissolved NH4NO3 was experimentally added to a 0.52-ha watershed at a rate of c. 40 kg ha−1 year−1. Atmospheric N depositions were reduced by means of a below-canopy plastic roof, which covered a 0.63-ha catchment adjacent to the fertilized site. The paired design of the experiment allowed tree growth in the N-treated sites to be compared with the growth at a reference plot receiving ambient N deposition. Nitrogen fertilization had a negative impact on pine growth, while no changes were observed in spruce. Similarly, the reduction in N and other acidifying compounds resulted in a tendency towards improved radial growth of pine, but it did not significantly affect the spruce growth. These results suggest that spruce is less susceptible to changes in the acidification and N status of the forest ecosystem than pine, at least in the Gardsjon area.
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- 2012
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31. Reconstructed drought variability in southeastern Sweden since the 1650s
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Kristina Seftigen, Igor Drobyshev, Hans W. Linderholm, and Mats Niklasson
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%22">Pinus ,Atmospheric Science ,Geography ,Pluvial ,Climatology ,Period (geology) ,Dendroclimatology ,North sea ,Precipitation index - Abstract
In this study, we present the first regional reconstruction of summer drought for southeastern Sweden. The June–July standardized precipitation index (SPI) was reconstructed over the period 1650–2002 based on Pinus sylvestris L. tree-ring width data, where the reconstruction could account for 41.6% of the total variance in the instrumental record over 1901–2002. Our reconstruction suggests an overall wet 18th century and a dry 19th century. The most outstanding pluvial phase in the pre-instrumental period took place in the mid-1720s and lasted over 50 years, while multi-decadal periods of below average moisture conditions were reconstructed in the 1660s–1720s, 1800s-early 30s, and in the 1840s–50s. Several of these dry spells have previously been found in reconstructions from Sweden and Finland, indicating that our reconstruction reflects large-scale moisture anomalies across eastern Fennoscandia. Comparison of the SPI estimates with mid-tropospheric pressure patterns suggests that summertime drought is associated with positive pressure anomalies over British Isles and the North Sea, while an eastward movement of the Icelandic low-pressure systems over the western part of central Fennoscandia results in wetter than normal June–July conditions over the region of interest.
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- 2012
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32. Reconstruction of a regional drought index in southern Sweden since AD 1750
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Thomas Hickler, Mats Niklasson, Hans W. Linderholm, Kristina Seftigen, Ólafur Eggertsson, and Igor Drobyshev
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Archeology ,Global and Planetary Change ,Index (economics) ,Ecology ,biology ,Scots pine ,Paleontology ,Growing season ,biology.organism_classification ,Quercus robur L ,%22">Pinus ,Geography ,Baltic sea ,Climatology ,Evapotranspiration ,Period (geology) ,Physical geography ,Earth-Surface Processes - Abstract
We used a network of eight pedunculate oak ( Quercus robur L.) sites ( ntrees = 70) and one Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris L.) site ( ntrees = 53) to develop drought-sensitive master chronologies for the two areas in southern Scandinavia: a SW-area centred on 57°N 12.7°E and a NE-area centred on 58.8°N 18.2°E. The ratio of actual to equilibrium evapotranspiration (AET/EET) was used as a measure of drought during the growing season defined as the period with average daily temperatures above 9°C. Instrumental data were used to parameterize the relationship between tree-ring data and the drought index (DI) over 1922—2000 for the SW area and over 1922—1995 for the NE area. The DI reconstructions explained 29.7% (SW area) and 43.7% (NE area) of the variance in the observed DI index in the calibration period, and were extended back to AD 1770 for the SW area and to AD 1750 for the NE area. Reconstructed drought dynamics suggested strong decadal- and century-scale temporal variability and limited regional synchronicity over 1770—2000. Large variations in DI were observed in both regions in the second half of the 1700s. Dry conditions were synchronously reconstructed in both sub-regions during 1781—1784, 1853—1855, and, to a lesser degree, during 1974—1978. Over the 1945—1975 period the SW area exhibited a trend towards drier growing seasons, whereas no such trend could be identified for the NE area. Analysis of correlation maps indicated that regional DI dynamics reflected two different climate regimes, associated with the Kattegat area (SW reconstruction) and southeastern Swedish coast of the Baltic sea (NE reconstruction).
- Published
- 2011
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33. Dendroclimatology in Fennoscandia – from past accomplishments to future potential
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Björn E. Gunnarson, Jesper Björklund, Igor Drobyshev, Yu Liu, Håkan Grudd, Kristina Seftigen, Jee-Hoon Jeong, and Hans W. Linderholm
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Global and Planetary Change ,Geography ,Atmospheric circulation ,Stratigraphy ,Climatology ,Taiga ,Dendrochronology ,Paleontology ,Climate change ,Context (language use) ,Forcing (mathematics) ,Dendroclimatology ,Holocene - Abstract
Fennoscandia has a strong tradition in dendrochronology, and its large tracts of boreal forest make the region well suited for the development of tree-ring chronologies that extend back several thousands of years. Two of the world's longest continuous (most tree-ring chronologies are annually resolved) tree-ring width chronologies are found in northern Fennoscandia, with records from Torneträsk and Finnish Lapland covering the last ca. 7500 yr. In addition, several chronologies between coastal Norway and the interior of Finland extend back several centuries. Tree-ring data from Fennoscandia have provided important information on regional climate variability during the mid to late Holocene and have played major roles in the reconstruction of hemispheric and global temperatures. Tree-ring data from the region have also been used to reconstruct large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns, regional precipitation and drought. Such information is imperative when trying to reach better understanding of natural climate change and variability and its forcing mechanisms, and placing recent climate change within a long-term context.
- Published
- 2010
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34. Temperature variations recorded inPinus tabulaeformistree rings from the southern and northern slopes of the central Qinling Mountains, central China
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Zhisheng An, Yu Liu, Hua Tian, Qiufang Cai, Qinhua Tian, Huiming Song, Kristina Seftigen, Deliang Chen, Guang Bao, Elisabeth Simelton, Ruiyuan Wang, Junyan Sun, and Hans W. Linderholm
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Archeology ,geography ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,Climate change ,Geology ,Dendroclimatology ,Vegetation ,Seasonality ,medicine.disease ,Monsoon ,Climatology ,medicine ,Period (geology) ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,Mountain range ,Woody plant - Abstract
Liu, Y., Linderholm, H. W., Song, H., Cai, Q., Tian, Q., Sun, J., Chen, D., Simelton, E., Seftigen, K., Tian, H., Wang, R., Bao, G. & An, Z.: Temperature variations recorded in Pinus tabulaeformis tree rings from the southern and northern slopes of the central Qinling Mountains, central China. Boreas, Vol. 38, pp. 285–291. 10.1111/j. 1502-3885.2008.00065.x. ISSN 0300-9483. The Qinling Mountain range constitutes a critical boundary for climate and vegetation distribution in eastern central mainland China owing to its importance as a geographic demarcation line. In this article, cores from 88 Chinese pines (Pinus tabulaeformis) from the southern (MW site) and northern (NWT site) slopes of the Qinling Mountains were used to reconstruct seasonal temperature variations. During the calibration period, significant correlations were found between ring width and the mean temperature from prior September to current April of 0.76 at the southern slope, and between ring width and the mean May–July temperature of 0.67 at the northern slope. The subsequent temperature reconstructions span 1760–2005 for the northern site and 1837–2006 for the southern site. Prior to the mid-20th century, low September–April temperatures were, in general, followed by high May–July temperatures, probably reflecting variations in the winter and summer monsoon. However, since the mid-20th century, both records show trends of a more pronounced increase in September–April temperature on the southern slope. The results provide independent support for the interpretation that recent warming is unusual in nature, coinciding with the observed record. The results compare well with tree-ring based reconstructions from the surrounding regions, suggesting regional signals in the Qinling Mountain reconstructions.
- Published
- 2009
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35. Old World Megadroughts and Pluvials During the Common Era
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David Frank, Laia Andreu-Hayles, Andrea Seim, Jutta Hofmann, Björn Günther, Volodymyr Trotsiuk, Björn E. Gunnarson, Keith R. Briffa, Sturt W. Manning, Helene Løvstrand Svarva, Samuli Helama, Momchil Panayotov, Pavel Janda, Niels Bonde, Tomasz Ważny, Katarina Čufar, David Brown, Daniel Miles, Paul J. Krusic, Andreas Rothe, Burkhard Neuwirth, Paola Nola, Miroslav Svoboda, Ramzi Touchan, Willy Tegel, Kristof Haneca, Karl-Uwe Heussner, Yochanan Kushnir, Claudia Baittinger, Rob Wilson, Marco Carrer, Niels Bleicher, Gerard van der Schrier, Hans W. Linderholm, Kurt Nicolussi, Christoph Dittmar, Franz Herzig, Tomáš Kyncl, Edward R. Cook, Ionel Popa, Michael Baillie, Richard J. Cooper, Valerie Trouet, Raymond Kontic, Christian Zang, Richard Seager, Jan Esper, Carol B. Griggs, Emilia Gutiérrez, Nesibe Köse, Mauri Timonen, Felix Walder, Ulf Büntgen, Tom Levanič, Terje Thun, Thomas M. Melvin, Kristina Seftigen, University of St Andrews. School of Earth & Environmental Sciences, University of St Andrews. Scottish Oceans Institute, University of St Andrews. St Andrews Sustainability Institute, and University of St Andrews. Earth and Environmental Sciences
- Subjects
Drought atlas ,drought atlas ,Old World ,Climate change ,Mediterranean drying ,climate change ,dendroclimatology ,greenhouse gas forcing ,megadrought ,tree-ring reconstruction ,Dendroclimatology ,Mediterranean Basin ,Greenhouse gas forcing ,Paleoclimatology ,Tree-ring reconstruction ,SDG 13 - Climate Action ,structure and properties of wood ,Megadrought ,Research Articles ,R2C ,SDG 15 - Life on Land ,Climatology ,GE ,Multidisciplinary ,Ecology ,Northern Hemisphere ,SciAdv r-articles ,DAS ,WOOD SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY ,15. Life on land ,ddc ,Geography ,13. Climate action ,Climate model ,Physical geography ,BDC ,Research Article ,GE Environmental Sciences - Abstract
An atlas of megadroughts in Europe and in the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era provides insights into climate variability., Climate model projections suggest widespread drying in the Mediterranean Basin and wetting in Fennoscandia in the coming decades largely as a consequence of greenhouse gas forcing of climate. To place these and other “Old World” climate projections into historical perspective based on more complete estimates of natural hydroclimatic variability, we have developed the “Old World Drought Atlas” (OWDA), a set of year-to-year maps of tree-ring reconstructed summer wetness and dryness over Europe and the Mediterranean Basin during the Common Era. The OWDA matches historical accounts of severe drought and wetness with a spatial completeness not previously available. In addition, megadroughts reconstructed over north-central Europe in the 11th and mid-15th centuries reinforce other evidence from North America and Asia that droughts were more severe, extensive, and prolonged over Northern Hemisphere land areas before the 20th century, with an inadequate understanding of their causes. The OWDA provides new data to determine the causes of Old World drought and wetness and attribute past climate variability to forced and/or internal variability.
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- 2015
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36. Growth dynamics of tree-line and lake-shore Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in the central Scandinavian Mountains during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the early Little Ice Age
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Petter Stridbeck, Jesper Björklund, Eva Rocha, Emad A. Farahat, Kristina Seftigen, Mauricio Fuentes, Yu Liu, Riikka Salo, Peng Zhang, Björn E. Gunnarson, and Hans W. Linderholm
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Shore ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,Subfossil ,Ecology ,biology ,Anomaly (natural sciences) ,Ecology and Evolution ,lcsh:Evolution ,Scots pine ,Medieval Climate Anomaly ,Tree-line variability ,biology.organism_classification ,central Scandinavian Mountains ,Geography ,lcsh:QH540-549.5 ,Little Ice Age ,lcsh:QH359-425 ,Period (geology) ,lcsh:Ecology ,Scots pine growth Dynamics ,Little ice age ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,Tree line ,Chronology - Abstract
Trees growing at their altitudinal or latitudinal distribution in Fennoscandia have been widely used to reconstruct warm season temperatures, and the region hosts some of the world's longest tree-ring chronologies. These multi-millennial long chronologies have mainly been built from tree remains found in lakes (subfossil wood from lake-shore trees). We used a unique dataset of Scots pine tree-ring data collected from wood remains found on a mountain slope in the central Scandinavian Mountains, yielding a chronology spanning over much of the last 1200 years. This data was compared with a local subfossil wood chronology with the aim to (1) describe growth variability in two environments during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and the early Little Ice Age (LIA), and (2) investigate differences in growth characteristics during these contrasting periods. It was shown that the local tree-line during both the MCA and early LIA was almost 150 m higher that at present. Based on living pines from the two environments, tree-line pine growth was strongly associated with mid-summer temperatures, while the lake-shore trees showed an additional response to summer precipitation. During the MCA, regarded to be a period of favorable climate in the region, the tree-ring data from both environments showed strong coherency and moderate growth variability. In the early LIA, the two chronologies were less coherent, with the tree-line chronology showing more variability, suggesting different growth responses in the two environments during this period of less favorable growing conditions. Our results indicate that tree-ring width chronologies mainly based on lake-shore trees may need to be re-evaluated.
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- 2014
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37. Is blue intensity ready to replace maximum latewood density as a strong temperature proxy? A tree-ring case study on Scots pine from northern Sweden
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Hans W. Linderholm, Kristina Seftigen, Björn E. Gunnarson, Jesper Björklund, and Jan Esper
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biology ,Climatology ,Scots pine ,Dendrochronology ,Environmental science ,biology.organism_classification ,Atmospheric sciences ,Proxy (climate) - Abstract
At high latitudes, where low temperatures mainly limit tree-growth, measurements of wood density (e.g. Maximum Latewood Density, MXD) using the X-Ray methodology provide a temperature proxy that is superior to that of TRW. Density measurements are however costly and time consuming and have lead to experimentation with optical flatbed scanners to produce Maximum Blue Intensity (BImax). BImax is an excellent proxy for density on annual scale but very limited in skill on centennial scale. Discolouration between samples is limiting BImax where specific brightnesses can have different densities. To overcome this, the new un-exploited parameter Δ blue intensity (ΔBI) was constructed by using the brightness in the earlywood (BIEW) as background, (BImax − BIEW = ΔBI). This parameter was tested on X-Ray material (MXD − earlywood density = ΔMXD) and showed great potential both as a quality control and as a booster of climate signals. Unfortunately since the relationship between grey scale and density is not linear, and between-sample brightness can differ tremendously for similar densities, ΔBI cannot fully match ΔMXD in skill as climate proxy on centennial scale. For ΔBI to stand alone, the range of brightness/density offset must be reduced. Further studies are needed to evaluate this possibility, and solutions might include heavier sample treatment (reflux with chemicals) or image-data treatment (digitally manipulating base-line levels of brightness).
- Published
- 2013
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38. The influence of climate on 13C/12C and 18O/16O ratios in tree ring cellulose of Pinus sylvestris L. growing in the central Scandinavian Mountains
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Hans W. Linderholm, Kristina Seftigen, Yu Liu, Neil J. Loader, and Giles H.F. Young
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Delta ,Stomatal conductance ,biology ,Stable isotope ratio ,Scots pine ,Growing season ,Geology ,Atmospheric sciences ,biology.organism_classification ,Isotopes of oxygen ,Geochemistry and Petrology ,Climatology ,Dendrochronology ,Precipitation - Abstract
The stable isotope composition of tree rings is known to contain valuable information of past climatic and environmental changes, which may be used as a complement to tree ring width and maximum latewood density in climate reconstructions. In this study we examine the character and strength of the climate signal captured in the delta O-18 and delta C-13 values of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) trees growing at the tree-line in the central Scandinavian Mountains. Between 4 and 14 trees were pooled to produce annual records of carbon and oxygen isotope ratios from tree ring cellulose, spanning the period AD 1736-2006. Weather conditions of the current growing season most strongly influenced the carbon and oxygen isotope ratios in a given tree ring. Both records showed positive correlations with temperature, sunshine and air pressure, and negative associations with precipitation. The overall climate signal in delta C-13 appeared to be slightly stronger than that of delta O-18. Spatial correlation analysis with gridded instrumental data demonstrated that the carbon series captured the summer temperature signal in a broad region of mid-west Sweden and the eastern part of Norway, greatly exceeding the spatial coverage of the signal derived from pine ring widths growing in the central Scandinavian mountains. A weak relationship between delta C-13 and precipitation and a much stronger temperature and sunshine dependence may imply that photosynthetic rate rather than stomatal conductance is more important in controlling the inter-annual tree ring delta C-13 variability in the area. Moreover, it was shown that, the climate-delta O-18 and delta C-13 relationship was temporally unstable throughout the twentieth century, which was linked to large-scale shifts in climate that may have altered the isotope-climate dependence. Our results thus demonstrate that, stable isotopes in tree rings from maritime high-altitude Scandinavia can provide high-resolution regional climate information, especially regarding parameters associated with temperature. The non-stationary nature of the isotope-precipitation relationship may provide important information on past changes in the large-scale atmospheric circulation during summer. However, these issues needs to be further investigated before pine tree ring isotopes from this region can be confidently used in palaeoclimate reconstructions. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. (Less)
- Published
- 2011
39. When tree rings go global: Challenges and opportunities for retro- and prospective insight
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Brian J. Enquist, Zhen Zhang, Flurin Babst, David Frank, Miguel D. Mahecha, David J. P. Moore, R. Justin DeRose, Michael Dietze, Kristina Seftigen, Paul Bodesheim, Rachael H. Turton, Olivier Bouriaud, Valerie Trouet, Annemarie H. Eckes, Noah D. Charney, Jesper Björklund, Andrew D. Friend, Sydne Record, Andria Dawson, Stefan Klesse, Margaret E. K. Evans, Benjamin Poulter, Martin P. Girardin, Babst, F [0000-0003-4106-7087], Klesse, S [0000-0003-1569-1724], Bouriaud, O [0000-0002-8046-466X], Dietze, MC [0000-0002-2324-2518], Turton, RH [0000-0001-9733-1495], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
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0106 biological sciences ,Archeology ,Resource (biology) ,Dendrochronology ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Computer science ,Climate change ,Sample (statistics) ,computer.software_genre ,01 natural sciences ,Scaling ,Forest growth ,Forest ecology ,Anthropocene ,Spatial analysis ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,Global and Planetary Change ,Forest inventory ,business.industry ,Environmental resource management ,Geology ,15. Life on land ,Remote sensing ,Vegetation models ,Tree (data structure) ,13. Climate action ,Data integration ,business ,computer ,010606 plant biology & botany - Abstract
The demand for large-scale and long-term information on tree growth is increasing rapidly as environmental change research strives to quantify and forecast the impacts of continued warming on forest ecosystems. This demand, combined with the now quasi-global availability of tree-ring observations, has inspired researchers to compile large tree-ring networks to address continental or even global-scale research questions. However, these emergent spatial objectives contrast with paleo-oriented research ideas that have guided the development of many existing records. A series of challenges related to how, where, and when samples have been collected is complicating the transition of tree rings from a local to a global resource on the question of tree growth. Herein, we review possibilities to scale tree-ring data (A) from the sample to the whole tree, (B) from the tree to the site, and (C) from the site to larger spatial domains. Representative tree-ring sampling supported by creative statistical approaches is thereby key to robustly capture the heterogeneity of climate-growth responses across forested landscapes. We highlight the benefits of combining the temporal information embedded in tree rings with the spatial information offered by forest inventories and earth observations to quantify tree growth and its drivers. In addition, we show how the continued development of mechanistic tree-ring models can help address some of the non-linearities and feedbacks that complicate making inference from tree-ring data. By embracing scaling issues, the discipline of dendrochronology will greatly increase its contributions to assessing climate impacts on forests and support the development of adaptation strategies.
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40. The climatic drivers of normalized difference vegetation index and tree-ring-based estimates of forest productivity are spatially coherent but temporally decoupled in Northern Hemispheric forests
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Jesper Björklund, David Frank, Benjamin Poulter, Kristina Seftigen, and Flurin Babst
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0106 biological sciences ,Canopy ,Global and Planetary Change ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Ecology ,Phenology ,Xylem ,Atmospheric sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Normalized Difference Vegetation Index ,Productivity (ecology) ,Dendrochronology ,Environmental science ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,010606 plant biology & botany ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Full Text
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41. Cell size and wall dimensions drive distinct variability of earlywood and latewood density in Northern Hemisphere conifers
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Jesper, Björklund, Kristina, Seftigen, Fritz, Schweingruber, Patrick, Fonti, Georg, Von Arx, Marina V. Bryukhanova, Henri E. Cuny, Marco, Carrer, Daniele, Castagneri, David C. Frank, Jesper, Björklund, Kristina, Seftigen, Fritz, Schweingruber, Patrick, Fonti, Georg, Von Arx, Marina V. Bryukhanova, Henri E. Cuny, Marco, Carrer, Daniele, Castagneri, and David C. Frank
- Abstract
Текст статьи не публикуется в открытом доступе в соответствии с политикой журнала., Interannual variability of wood density – an important plant functional trait and environmental proxy – in conifers is poorly understood. We therefore explored the anatomical basis of density. We hypothesized that earlywood density is determined by tracheid size and latewood density by wall dimensions, reflecting their different functional tasks. To determine general patterns of variability, density parameters from 27 species and 349 sites across the Northern Hemisphere were correlated to tree-ring width parameters and local climate. We performed the same analyses with density and width derived from anatomical data comprising two species and eight sites. The contributions of tracheid size and wall dimensions to density were disentangled with sensitivity analyses. Notably, correlations between density and width shifted from negative to positive moving from earlywood to latewood. Temperature responses of density varied intraseasonally in strength and sign. The sensitivity analyses revealed tracheid size as the main determinant of earlywood density, while wall dimensions become more influential for latewood density. Our novel approach of integrating detailed anatomical data with large-scale tree-ring data allowed us to contribute to an improved understanding of interannual variations of conifer growth and to illustrate how conifers balance investments in the competing xylem functions of hydraulics and mechanical support.
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