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Effective support for people´s responses to climate change requires knowledge on the gap between physical climate change science and practices where the responses are realized. Studies have shown that individuals´ strong belief in local impacts of climate change is an important driver of climate change response (e.g. Blennow et al. 2012). Arguably this belief can be fortified by the belief that one has experienced the local impacts of climate change. However, a recent study shows that while responses to climate change correlate positively with the strength of belief that one has experienced negative local impacts of climate change, experience of positive local climate change impacts can either promote or inhibit the response (Blennow and Persson 2021). If the intention is adaptation to the impacts of climate change, positive experiences of climate change promote the response but if the intention is climate change mitigation, experience of positive impacts of climate change inhibit the response.While strong belief in the local impacts of climate change is a prerequisite of climate change response, for adaptation, the agent also needs detailed knowledge of the causal links between climate change and the negative and positive values of expected climate change related impacts (Blennow et al. 2020). Decision-making in favor of adaptation to climate change generally increases with the absolute value of the net of positive and negative expected impacts in the absence of ‘tipping point’ behavior (Persson et al. 2020; Blennow et al. 2020). Tipping point behaviour occurs when adaptation is not pursued in spite of the strongly negative or positive net value of expected climate change impacts. For mitigation, moreover, it is important that the net value of expected impacts is negative and not positive (Blennow and Persson 2021). We discuss the implications of the results for policies aiming at supporting responses to climate change, such as communications that help the receiver subjectively attribute the causes of an event to climate change. ReferencesBlennow, K. Persson, J., 2021. To Mitigate or Adapt? Explaining Why Citizens Responding to Climate Change Favour the Former. Land, 10, 240. https://doi.org/10.3390/land10030240Blennow, K., Persson, J., Tomé, M., & Hanewinkel, M., 2012. Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting. PLOS ONE, 7(11):e50181. http://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0050182Blennow, K. Persson, J., Gonçalves, L.M.S., Borys, A., Dutcă, I., Hynynen, J., Janeczko, E., Lyubenova, M., Merganič, J., Merganiová, K., Peltoniemi, M., Petr, M., Reboredo, F., Vacchiano, G., Reyer, C.P.O., 2020. The role of beliefs, expectations and values in decision-making favoring climate change adaptation – implications for communications with European forest professionals. Environmental Research Letters,15: 114061. /doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc2faPersson, J., Blennow, K., Gonçalves, L.M.S., Borys, A., Dutca, I., Hynynen, J., Janeczko, E., Lyubenova, M., Martel, S., Merganic, J., Merganicova, K., Peltoniemi, M., Petr, M., Reboredo, F., Vacchiano, G., Reyer, C.P.O., 2020. No polarization – expected values of climate change impacts among European forest professionals and scientists. Sustainability, 12, 2659; doi:10.3390/su12072659

Why do citizens’ decisions made because they favour the mitigation of climate change outnumber those made because they favour adaptation to its impacts? Using data collected in a survey of 338 citizens of Malmö, Sweden, we tested two hypotheses. H1: the motivation for personal decisions because they favour adaptation to the impacts of climate change correlates with the decision-making agent´s knowledge of specific local impacts of climate change, and H2: the motivation for personal decisions because they favour mitigation of climate change correlates with the risk perception of the decision-making agent. While decisions made because they favour mitigation correlated with negative net values of expected impacts of climate change (risk perception), decisions made because they favour adaptation correlated with its absolute value unless tipping point behaviour occurred. Tipping point behaviour occurs here when the decision-making agent abstains from decisions in response to climate change in spite of a strongly negative or positive net value of expected impacts. Hence, the decision-making agents´ lack of knowledge of specific climate change impacts inhibited decisions promoting adaptation. Moreover, positive experiences of climate change inhibited mitigation decisions. Discussing the results, we emphasised the importance of understanding the drivers of adaptation and mitigation decisions. In particular, we stress that attention needs to be paid to the balance between decisions solving problems ‘here and now’ and those focusing on the ‘there and then’.

The role of values in climate-related decision-making is a prominent theme of climate communication research. The present study examines whether forest professionals are more driven by values than scientists are, and if this results in value polarization. A questionnaire was designed to elicit and assess the values assigned to expected effects of climate change by forest professionals and scientists working on forests and climate change in Europe. The countries involved covered a north-to-south and west-to-east gradient across Europe, representing a wide range of bio-climatic conditions and a mix of economic&ndash, social&ndash, political structures. We show that European forest professionals and scientists do not exhibit polarized expectations about the values of specific impacts of climate change on forests in their countries. In fact, few differences between forest professionals and scientists were found. However, there are interesting differences in the expected values of forest professionals with regard to climate change impacts across European countries. In Northern European countries, the aggregated values of the expected effects are more neutral than they are in Southern Europe, where they are more negative. Expectations about impacts on timber production, economic returns, and regulatory ecosystem services are mostly negative, while expectations about biodiversity and energy production are mostly positive.

A rationale for an individuals-oriented landscape approach to sustainable land-use planning based on an analysis of bio-geo-physical components as well as the human components of the landscape is presented. A toolbox for analysing individuals’ decision-making and valuations in the landscape is described. The toolbox can provide evidence on the drivers of individuals’ decision-making in the landscape and the decision strategies they apply. This evidence can be used to identify communication needs and to design guidelines for effective communication. The tool for value elicitation separates the instrumental values (means) and end values (goals) of individuals with respect to locations in the landscape. This distinction, and knowledge of the end values in the landscape, are critical for the achievement of policy goals and for spatial planning from a democratic point of view. The individuals-oriented landscape approach has roots in geography and draws on behavioural decision research together with a model for integrating “science and proven experience” that is widely used in public decision-making in the Nordic countries. The approach differs from other scholarly disciplines addressing sustainable land-use planning. It is suitable for application on decision-making problems that include trade-offs between values. An overview of empirical studies is provided in which the individuals-oriented landscape rationale is applied to climate change.

Beliefs, expectations and values are often assumed to drive decisions about climate change adaptation. We tested hypotheses based on this assumption using survey responses from 508 European forest professionals in ten countries. We used the survey results to identify communication needs and the decision strategies at play, and to develop guidelines on adequate communications about climate change adaptation. We observed polarization in the positive and negative values associated with climate change impacts accepted by survey respondents. We identified a mechanism creating the polarization that we call the ‘blocked belief’ effect. We found that polarized values did not correlate with decisions about climate change adaptation. Strong belief in the local impacts of climate change on the forest was, however, a prerequisite of decision-making favoring adaptation. Decision-making in favor of adaptation to climate change also correlated with net values of expected specific impacts on the forest and generally increased with the absolute value of these in the absence of ‘tipping point’ behavior. Tipping point behavior occurs when adaptation is not pursued in spite of the strongly negative or positive net value of expected climate change impacts. We observed negative and positive tipping point behavior, mainly in SW Europe and N-NE Europe, respectively. In addition we found that advice on effective adaptation may inhibit adaptation when the receiver is aware of effective adaptation measures unless it is balanced with information explaining how climate change leads to negative impacts. Forest professionals with weak expectations of impacts require communications on climate change and its impacts on forests before any advice on adaptation measures can be effective. We develop evidence-based guidelines on communications using a new methodology which includes Bayesian machine learning modeling of the equivalent of an expected utility function for the adaptation decision problem.

Climate vulnerability of managed forest ecosystems is not only determined by ecological processes but also influenced by the adaptive capacity of forest managers. To better understand adaptive behaviour, we conducted a questionnaire study among current and future forest managers (i.e. active managers and forestry students) in Austria. We found widespread belief in climate change (94.7 % of respondents), and no significant difference between current and future managers. Based on intended responses to climate-induced ecosystem changes, we distinguished four groups: highly sensitive managers (27.7 %), those mainly sensitive to changes in growth and regeneration processes (46.7 %), managers primarily sensitive to regeneration changes (11.2 %), and insensitive managers (14.4 %). Experiences and beliefs with regard to disturbance-related tree mortality were found to particularly influence a manager’s sensitivity to climate change. Our findings underline the importance of the social dimension of climate change adaptation, and suggest potentially strong adaptive feedbacks between ecosystems and their managers.

The European Commission expects the use of biomass for energy in the EU to increase significantly between 2010 and 2020 to meet a legally binding target to cover at least 20% of EU's total energy use from renewable sources in 2020. According to estimates made by the member states of the EU, the direct supply of biomass from forests is expected to increase by 45% on a volume basis between 2006 and 2020 in response to increasing demand (Beurskens LWM, Hekkenberg M, Vethman P. Renewable energy projections as published in the national renewable energy action plans of the European Member states. ECN and EEA; 2011. http://https://www.ecn.nl/docs/library/report/2010/e10069.pdf [accessed 25.04.2014]; Dees M, Yousef A, Ermert J. Analysis of the quantitative tables of the national renewable energy action plans prepared by the 27 European Union Member States in 2010. BEE working paper D7.2. Biomass Energy Europe project. FELIS Department of Remote Sensing and landscape information Systems, University of Freiburg, Germany; 2011). Our aims were to test the hypotheses that European private forest owners' attitudes towards supplying woody biomass for energy (1) can be explained by their responses to changes in prices and markets and (2) are positive so that the forest biomass share of the EU 2020 renewable energy target can be met. Based on survey data collected in 2010 from 800 private forest owners in Sweden, Germany and Portugal our results show that the respondents' attitudes towards supplying woody biomass for energy cannot be explained as direct responses to changes in prices and markets. Our results, furthermore, imply that European private forest owners cannot be expected to supply the requested amounts of woody biomass for energy to meet the forest biomass share of the EU 2020 renewable energy target, at least if stemwood is to play the important role as studies by Verkerk PJ, Anttila P, Eggers J, Lindner M, Asikainen A. The realisable potential supply of woody biomass from forests in the European Union. For Ecol Manag 2011;261: 2007-2015, UNECE and FAO. The European forest sector outlook study,II 2010-2030. United Nations, New York and Geneva; 2011 [abbreviated to EFSOS II] and Elbersen B, Staritsky I, Hengeveld G, Schelhaas MJ, Naeff H, Bottcher H. Atlas of EU biomass potentials; 2012. Available from: http://www.biomassfutures.eu [accessed 14.10.2013] suggest. (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Recent studies projecting future climate change impacts on forests mainly consider either the effects of climate change on productivity or on disturbances. However, productivity and disturbances are intrinsically linked because 1) disturbances directly affect forest productivity (e.g. via a reduction in leaf area, growing stock or resource-use efficiency), and 2) disturbance susceptibility is often coupled to a certain development phase of the forest with productivity determining the time a forest is in this specific phase of susceptibility. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of forest productivity changes in different forest regions in Europe under climate change, and partition these changes into effects induced by climate change alone and by climate change and disturbances. We present projections of climate change impacts on forest productivity from state-of-the-art forest models that dynamically simulate forest productivity and the effects of the main European disturbance agents (fire, storm, insects), driven by the same climate scenario in seven forest case studies along a large climatic gradient throughout Europe. Our study shows that, in most cases, including disturbances in the simulations exaggerate ongoing productivity declines or cancel out productivity gains in response to climate change. In fewer cases, disturbances also increase productivity or buffer climate-change induced productivity losses, e.g. because low severity fires can alleviate resource competition and increase fertilization. Even though our results cannot simply be extrapolated to other types of forests and disturbances, we argue that it is necessary to interpret climate change-induced productivity and disturbance changes jointly to capture the full range of climate change impacts on forests and to plan adaptation measures., published version, peerReviewed

Available climate change scenarios indicate that climate change will affect elements of the Swedish climate, and that the exposure and sensitivity of the forest to climate change will differ between regions. Adaptation to climate change is conceptually closely linked to the reduction of the risk of disasters. Based on contemporary theory in behavioural risk research, the aim was to improve the knowledge on the process of adaptation of forest management to climate change among Swedish private individual forest owners. The responses from two questionnaires from 1999 to 2004, respectively, were analysed. Adaptation of forest management to climate change by private individual forest owners in what is currently the hemiboreal bio-climatic zone of Sweden was quantified and shown to increase over the five year period. In 2004 adaptive measures had been taken on a limited fraction of the forest land owned by private individuals in three study areas located along a latitudinal gradient ranging from the nemoral to the boreal bio-climatic zones in Sweden. Adaptive measures were more frequent in two southern study areas than in a northern study area. Measures taken to adapt were similar in all three study areas, except for those strongly conditioned by the current local climate. Among forest owners who had taken measure to adapt, perceptions of much higher risk due to climate change was more frequent for the risk of damage by wind, drought, fungi, and insects than for other risk factors. Further improvement of the knowledge on how the individual forest owners' learn and perceive of climate change, its impacts on risks and options for adaptation is required to develop and successfully implement adaptive climate change policies.

PurposeRecent climate scenarios indicate that Sweden's southern region, Götaland, will experience significant climate change over the coming century. Swedish forestry policy guidelines emphasize the need for risk spreading to reduce the potential adverse impacts of these changes. Risk spreading is defined here as reducing the vulnerability of a social‐ecological system by increasing the heterogeneity of its ecological components. Risk spreading may be achieved through the diversification of tree species currently relied upon by the forestry sector. The purpose of this paper is to consider the capacity of the socio‐ecological forest system to adapt to climate change through the use of risk spreading.Design/methodology/approachA variety of disciplines contribute to the understanding of the rate at which risk spreading is likely to take place in a system. A synthesis is conducted to unite these insights.FindingsFive key constraints on the rate at which risk spreading can take place are identified. These include constraints imposed by the silvicultural system itself, voluntary policy measures, forest‐owner perceptions of climate change, motivation among forest owners to respond to risk, and forestry consultants. Potential future directions are discussed and include the need for specifying the goal of risk spreading policy, and the need to evaluate the motivations of those forest owners already altering adopting risk spreading approaches.Originality/valueConceptual equivalents of the “risk spreading” approach are international, due to the need for many societies to adapt social‐ecological systems to climate change. The issues raised from this case study/synthesis provide value insights regarding the breadth of systemic constraints which can thwart attempts at rapid adjustment to climate change, and where solutions to these constraints may be found.

We simulated how possible changes in wind and ground-frost climate and state of the forest due to changes in the future climate may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within one northern and one southern study area in Sweden, respectively. The topography of the study areas was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.) and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.). Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in the site productivity equal to a relative change in NPP, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of the site index in response to climate change using the model The Forest Time Machine. Global climate change scenarios based on two emission scenarios and one general circulation model were downscaled to the regional level. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the sensitivity of the forest to wind and the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands for the periods 2011–2041 and 2071–2100 and for a control period 1961–1990. This was done while taking into account effects on stability of the forest from expected changes in the occurrence of ground frost. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated for both study areas when adhering to recommended management rules of today. Adding also a changed wind climate further increased the probability of wind damage. Calculated probabilities of wind damage were generally higher in the southern study area than in the northern one and were explained by differences in wind climate and the state of the forests, for example with respect to tree species composition. The indicated increase in sensitivity of the forest to wind under the current management regime, and possibly increasing windiness, motivate further analysis of the effects of different management options on the probability of wind damage and what modifications of Swedish forest management are possibly warranted.

We estimated how the possible changes in wind climate and state of the forest due to climate change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds expected to cause wind damage within a forest management unit located in Southern Sweden. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). We incorporated a model relating the site index (SI) to the site productivity into the forest projection model FTM. Using estimated changes in the net primary production (NPP) due to climate change and assuming a relative change in NPP equal to a relative change in the site productivity, we simulated possible future states of the forest under gradual adjustment of SI in response to climate change. We estimated changes in NPP by combining the boreal-adapted BIOMASS model with four regional climate change scenarios calculated using the RCAO model for the period 2071–2100 and two control period scenarios for the period 1961–1990. The modified WINDA model was used to calculate the probability of wind damage for individual forest stands in simulated future states of the forest. The climate change scenarios used represent non-extreme projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. A 15–40% increase in NPP was estimated to result from climate change until the period 2071–2100. Increasing sensitivity of the forest to wind was indicated when the management rules of today were applied. A greater proportion of the calculated change in probability of wind damage was due to changes in wind climate than to changes in the sensitivity of the forest to wind. While regional climate scenarios based on the HadAM3H general circulation model (GCM) indicated no change (SRES A2 emission scenario) or a slightly reduced (SRES B2 emission scenario) probability of wind damage, scenarios based on the ECHAM4/OPYC3 GCM indicated increased probability of wind damage. The assessment should, however, be reviewed as the simulation of forest growth under climate change as well as climate change scenarios are refined.

The formation of a risk management policy in Swedish forestry and its consequences for fulfilment of goals was analysed. The risk of wind damage was used as a model where an apparent gap between stated accepted risk and extent of risk‐reducing measures taken among south Swedish non‐industrial private forest owners was used as a starting point. The results of an enquiry, and personal experiences from the debate after an extensive wind damage event in January 2005, were used and complemented study of literature. It was concluded that risks have not been particularly actively managed in the Swedish forestry culture. This was explained by notions of seeing (i) risks such as wind damage as a natural hazard rather than a technological risk that can be modulated, and (ii) forestry as an enterprise free of valuation in which value aspects of risk were neglected. A narrow agenda in Swedish forest research influenced the risk management policy, where forest consultants played an important role as a link between sci...

We (1) estimated how the possible changes in wind climate due to climatic change may affect the probability of exceeding critical wind speeds (CWS) expected to cause significant wind damage within a forest management unit located in southern Sweden, (2) analysed how the probability of exceeding an approximate CWS as observed in the management unit would change in different regions in Sweden if expecting a similar kind of forested area to occur in different geographical locations. The topography of the management unit was relatively gentle and the forests were dominated by Norway spruce (Picea abies (L.) Karst.). Seven regions across Sweden were selected for comparison of possible future probability of damaging wind speed. The model-system WINDA was modified and used for calculations of the probability of wind damage together with regionally downscaled climate change scenario (CCS) data. In total, two climate scenarios downscaled using the RCAO model for the control period 1961–1990 and four for the period 2071–2100 were used. The CCSs represent fairly central projections on a 100-year time scale in terms of global mean warming. Although there is ambiguity between different CCSs, the results indicated that the present pattern of more windy conditions in southern than in northern Sweden will remain. For most sites the probability of exceeding the CWS from westerly to south-westerly directions was indicated to remain comparatively high and the probability of damaging wind from south-westerly to south-easterly directions was indicated to increase in many places. For southernmost Sweden increasing probability of exceeding the CWS from the north-westerly to south-easterly wind directions were indicated for all but one CCS. The results were discussed with respect to spatial planning in forestry under a changing wind climate.

Active risk management is central to the implementation of sustainable forestry, yet a fairly unexplored field of research. This study attempts to present some components of an analytical framework for risk management centred on the decision situation. Within this framework, a systems analysis approach to providing decision support for risk management is presented with an example dealing with outcome risk. The approach covers identification of risk factors for which decision support could be useful for the problem holders, presentation of how one such risk factor, wind damage, can be characterised in terms of a computer model, and how this computer model can be used for providing decision support. In addition to outcome risk, there is risk due to knowledge uncertainty and uncertainty related to valuation. The implications of these uncertainties for active risk management are discussed. Furthermore, communicative criteria for making the decision support useful are discussed. Since the work on the ...

In multiple-purpose forestry, windstorms affect both the ecological and economic values that forest stands represent. Silvicultural treatments and forest planning can reduce the probability of wind damage. A tool for the identification of spruce stands with a high probability of wind damage, aimed at helping forestry practitioners target such measures, is presented. Initial assessments of the annual probability of wind damage of exposed stand edges were made for a landscape of about 1200 ha in southern Sweden, using the WINDA system of models. In the calculations, each edge was classified as having either a high or a low annual probability of wind damage. Decision tree methodology using easily accessible variables was employed for identifying the edges classified as having a high probability of wind damage. Since in a multiple-use situation, the risk preferences of decision makers differ, one decision tree was constructed for each of three threshold probabilities of wind damage: 5, 10, and 20%. This corresponds to disturbance intervals of 20, 10, and 5 years or less in each case. The decision trees were found to correctly classify 64–71% of the high-probability stand edges, the misclassification rate for the low-probability stand edges being 12–26%. Alternative cost-matrices were used to take account of user-preferences regarding misclassification rates in the model output. Among the most important predictor variables used in the decision trees were stem taper, gap size in front of the stand edge, and the direction of wind exposure. In an evaluation landscape located 250 km from the parameterization landscape, the decision trees were found to correctly classify 44–50% and 0–83% of the high-probability stand edges with and without use of cost-matrices, respectively. For the evaluation landscape, a statistically significant difference between classifications produced by the decision tree approach and a set of randomly classified stand edges was obtained just for four of the decision trees. This result was explained in terms of the high degree of complexity of the underlying processes, limitations in the parameterization data set, and differences between the landscapes involved. Decision trees of the type described can thus provide help in practical forestry within and nearby the landscape used for constructing the decision trees. In general, the presented methodology appears to be suitable for developing management decision support tools.

An integrated system of models, WINDA, is presented for calculating the stand-wise probabilities of wind damage, uprooting and breakage of trees within a landscape. The calculations are made point-wise at exposed stand edges. WINDA integrates a modified version of the dose/response model HWIND [Can. J. For. Res. 29 (1999) 647], the airflow model WASP [Wind Atlas Analysis and Application Program (WASP), Riso National Laboratory, Roskilde, Denmark], and a component for calculating the zero-plane displacement and surface roughness and uses a GIS for geographical computations. The likelihood of damage is calculated using extreme value theory. WINDA was able to predict damage that compared well with observed extensive damage within 6.7 km 2 large landscape in southern Sweden. Output from the system of models was most sensitive to modifications in the input variables tree height and diameter at breast height and to the internal parameter critical friction velocity. The mechanistic modelling approach makes WINDA useful for evaluating effects on the probability of wind damage of silvicultural treatments and forestry activities as well as of a changed climate.

A simple tool, TrackBeam, for rapid in situ estimates of potential exposure to the solar beam of objects underneath tree canopies is presented, tested and demonstrated to be useful in insect conservation studies. The tool can be used whenever accurate data on sun exposure is of use e.g., in ecological studies of saproxylic insects. TrackBeam draws upon the principles behind the analysis of hemispherical photographs but its use is much less dependent on the weather at the time of sampling. It may be used for detecting canopy openings in directions corresponding to the solar path. Based on this, periods of time with potential beam exposure and/or the proportion of sky that is not obscured by canopy for objects such as dead wood may be estimated. The results of using TrackBeam compares well between operators and with the corresponding results of analysed hemispherical photographs. Results are presented which show that TrackBeam was successfully used to characterise the habitat light requirements of the saproxylic beetle Melanotus castanipes (Coleoptera: Elateridae).

Based on an enquiry, risk perception among non-industrial private forest owners is described in relation to climate change and forestry hazards. Of the respondents, 11% took action to remedy the effects of climate change. Out of a given set, hazards were ranked according to each respondent's experience of recent substantial financial loss to the estate and in relation to his or her willingness to make investments aimed at risk reduction. For each hazard, the respondent assessed the risk in four classes ranging from very high to negligible risk. Six hazards were considered most problematic in all three aspects: browsing damage, falling timber prices, damage by wind, spruce bark beetle, root rot and pine weevil. A majority of the respondents claimed to take action to reduce the risk associated with at least one hazard, while 35% did not know whether they did. Excluding climate change, the need for decision support was the largest in relation to damage by wind owing to a combination of perceived high risk an...

Low temperature during the growing season is known to be a leading cause of stress and damage to tree seedlings and interactive effects with high irradiance have been recognised as enhancing the damage. Spatial variation in low temperature and irradiance for mountainous terrain was, therefore, hypothesised to give rise to spatially variable potential for regeneration of tree seedlings and expansion of forest. Combined exposure to low temperature and high irradiance appears most likely on clear mornings following frosty nights. Geographic information system-based models of the spatial variation in minimum air temperature over clear-felled terrain and potentially intercepted direct radiation energy were constructed and were used together with measured values of minimum air temperature to explain observed spatial variation in mortality rates for planted tree seedlings in central Sweden. A local-scale multiple regression model explained 78% of the measured spatial variability in minimum air temperature over 625 km 2 and a corresponding, but univariate, microscale model explained 54% of the measured spatial variation in minimum air temperature over 4 ha. Multiple logistic regression models for the mortality rates of seedlings showed there was no significant effect of potentially intercepted amounts of direct radiation energy during the morning for either scale. There was, however, a significant effect (p

Effects of tall shelterwood and soil preparation on minimum air temperature over undulating terrain were modelled for clear and calm nights. A stepwise linear regression model describing the spatial variability of minimum air temperature at a height of 25 cm above grass-covered clear-cut areas accounted for 87% of the measured temperature variability. The explanatory variables parameterise drainage, ponding and stagnation of cold air and were retrieved from a digital elevation model in a GIS. There was no influence from the azimuth orientation of slopes on the minimum air temperature. A model for both shelterwood of three stem densities and clear-cut explained 89% of the spatial variation in minimum air temperature where variables related to sky view, topography and presence of scarified ground were used. Topographic influences increased in parallel with increasing sky view. Simple topography related measures within shelterwood were successfully used in the model where detailed topographic mapping was impeded by forest stands. For flat terrain, a maximum shelterwood effect of +4.6°C for a density of 275 stems/ha was estimated for nights with moderately strong radiative cooling. An effect of +1.6°C was estimated for scarification of clear-cut ground. Data sets collected separately for validation for each model compared well with estimated values.

Fluorescence characteristics and growth of seedling snow gum (Eucalyptus pauciflora Sieb. ex Spreng.) during autumn and winter were related to variation in radiation and temperature regime in a fragmented forest. Seedlings were planted in four treatments along transects perpendicular to tree island edges to characterize plant responses to microclimates ranging from those of cleared areas to those beneath forest canopies. Three-dimensional mapping of seedling leaf display, in combination with information retrieved from hemispherical photographs about shading from overstory canopies, were used to calculate the intercepted amounts of direct radiation energy for unit area of leaves on clear days (IDRE). IDRE was highest on the outside, most variable at the edges and lowest well inside the tree islands. Minimum temperature decreased with increasing view of the sky. Photoinhibition, measured as decrease in Fv/Fm, was correlated with spatial and seasonal differences in weekly minimum temperature and IDRE. Seedlings in the open and under the most canopy cover, with low variability in IDRE in a scale of weeks, exhibited less variability in photoinhibition than those growing along forest edges. Seedlings in the open tended to be most photoinhibited and grew the most. The combination of increased IDRE with reduced minimum temperatures resulted in persistent and strong photoinhibition as the season progressed. Results are discussed in relation to the potential for seedling establishment following forest fragmentation.

A stepwise linear regression model for local-scale temperature climates for clear and calm summer nights is presented for a heterogeneous and forested area in south Sweden. The spatial variations in measured air temperature 2 m above 5.5 km of roads were modelled from the following independent variables retrieved from a geographic information system (GIS): sky view factor, altitude, relative relief and presence of peat soils. The model explains 88% of the measured variations in air temperature and 87% of the variations in air temperature of a separate validation data set collected along 2.4 km of roads. Distributed model results for a 7.5-km 2 area generates a map with areas delineated that are prone to low temperature and frost after clear-cutting. The map gives useful information for efficient implementation of frost protection measures in forestry and is based on a simple methodology that can be applied in practical forestry.

Uncertainty, insufficient information or information of poor quality, limited cognitive capacity and time, along with value conflicts and ethical considerations, are all aspects that make risk management and risk communication difficult. This paper provides a review of different risk concepts and describes how these influence risk management, communication, and planning in relation to forest ecosystem services. Based on the review and results of empirical studies, we suggest that personal assessment of risk is decisive for in the management of forest ecosystem services. The results are used together with a review of different principles of the distribution of risk to propose an approach to risk communication that is effective as well as ethically sound. Knowledge of heuristics and mutual information on both beliefs and desires are important in the proposed risk communication approach. Such knowledge provides an opportunity for relevant information exchange, so that gaps in personal knowledge maps can be filled in and effective risk communication can be promoted.

The climate change adaptation tool Local Climate Impacts Profile (LCLIP), developed and previously widely used in the UK, was systematically evaluated in terms of its transferability to Sweden and its usefulness as a catalyst for awareness-raising and action with respect to climate change adaptation. The tool includes scoping, media trawl, interviews and reporting and was applied in three Swedish municipalities. It was found that after some adjustment, the tool can be applied successfully under Swedish conditions. The municipalities involved found the results useful for stimulating local adaptation work. However, the municipalities concluded that LCLIP is primarily a beginner’s tool that can be applied at a low cost and that other, more costly investigations on vulnerability to extreme weather typically need to be conducted for successful adaptation to climate change at municipal level. An advantage of the LCLIP tool is that it involves civil servants from all departments in the municipality and thus the resulting vulnerability discussions also involve departments dealing with ‘soft’ issues, such as administration and care.

Wind is the dominant agent of damage in forests in Western Europe. Traditional winddamage models calculate a probability for damage or a critical wind speed at which damage occurs. However, in a dynamic vegetation model actual damage to stands and individual trees is needed to get a dynamical progression of the vegetation. We present a prototype for a new approach to modelling forest wind damage at the regional scale, which we incorporate within a dynamic vegetation model. The approach is based on knowledge from both empirical and mechanical models and calculates the damaged fraction of a cohort based on wind load and a sensitivity that depends on the current physical state and history of the cohort in relation to the ecosystem. The modelling concept has been developed, calibrated and evaluated for Swedish conditions but can be applicable to other similar areas with minor modification. Because of the stochastic nature of local wind load and the difficulty of describing the stand-level exposure, the ability to explain observed damage at stand level was low. Regional level variation in damage, which more depends on the wind load, was however explained reasonably well (R2 = 0.43). We suggest that this is a useful concept for evaluating alternatives of forest management under different climate scenarios in the process of adaptation to future storm-damage risks.

Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD 60.01) to 0.81 (SD 60.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD 60.008) to 0.91 (SD 60.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

International audience; This study deals with the problem of including the risk of wind damage in long-term forestry management. A model based on Graph-Based Markov Decision Processes (GMDP) is suggested for development of silvicultural management policies. The model can both take stochastic wind events into account and be applied to forest estates containing a large number of stands. The model is demonstrated for a forest estate in southern Sweden. Treatment of the stands according to the management policy specified by the GMDP model increased the expected net present value (NPV) of the whole forest only slightly, less than 2%, under different wind-risk assumptions. Most of the stands were managed in the same manner as when the risk of wind damage was not considered. For the stands that were treated differently, however, the expected NPV increased by 3% to 8%.

Dementia with Lewy bodies (DLB) and Parkinson's disease dementia (PDD) may be viewed as different points on a continuum reflecting the regional burden and distribution of pathology. An important clinical consideration is overlapping Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology, since it has been reported that associated AD pathology in DLB shortens survival and leads to a more rapid cognitive decline. We aimed to investigate cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers and the associated cognitive profile in DLB and PDD.Clinically diagnosed DLB (n=47) and PDD (n=17) patients from a clinical follow-up programme were investigated. All performed mini mental state examination (MMSE) and went through lumbar puncture at baseline. CSF concentrations of total τ (T-τ), τ phosphorylated at threonine 181 (P-τ(181) ) and the 42 amino acid isoform of amyloid β, Aβ42 were determined.We found significant differences in T-τ and Aβ42, with a higher level of T-τ and a lower level of Aβ42 in DLB compared to PDD. The combination of T-τ with Aβ42 showed better discrimination between DLB and PDD than either of the measures alone. In DLB, a CSF profile more like the one seen in AD was significantly correlated with worse performance on the orientation and memory of the MMSE.The correlation suggests a possible link between a higher degree of AD pathology and a profile of more temporal disabilities on cognitive tests in DLB. This might aid in identifying a subgroup of patients with a greater burden of AD pathology in a clinical setting and could have important implications for prognosis.

Objective: To investigate if patterns of CSF biomarkers (T-tau, P-tau, and Aβ42) can predict cognitive progression, outcome of cholinesterase inhibitor (ChEI) treatment, and mortality in Alzheimer disease (AD). Methods: We included outpatients with AD (n = 151) from a prospective treatment study with ChEI. At baseline, patients underwent cognitive assessments and lumbar puncture. The patients were assessed longitudinally. The 5-year survival rate was evaluated. CSF-Aβ42, T-tau, and P-tau were analyzed at baseline. K-means cluster analysis including the 3 CSF biomarkers was carried out. Results: Cluster 1 contained 87 patients with low levels of Aβ42 and relatively low levels of T-tau and P-tau. Cluster 2 contained 52 patients with low levels of Aβ42 and intermediate levels of T-tau and P-tau. Cluster 3 contained 12 patients with low levels of Aβ42 and very high levels of CSF T-tau and P-tau. There were no differences between the clusters regarding age, gender, years of education, baseline instrumental activities of daily living, or APOE genotype. Even though there was no difference between cluster 3 and the other clusters in disease duration or global rating, the patients in cluster 3 performed worse on cognitive tests already at baseline. Patients in cluster 3 exhibited a very poor outcome of ChEI treatment. Finally, cognition deteriorated faster over time and the mortality rate was substantially increased in cluster 3. Conclusion: A subgroup of patients with Alzheimer disease with extreme levels of CSF biomarkers exhibits worse clinical outcomes over time, including faster progression of cognitive deficits, no response to ChEI treatment, and a higher mortality.

Several hazards for forest production can be identified, such as damage caused by wind, frost, insects or pathogens. Modelling efforts of ours have been concentrated upon the risks of damages by wind and frost, landscape level models for which will be presented below. A landscape is defined as an area of anywhere from a few km2 to several tens of km2.

The primary focus of the SUFOR research programme was the Asa Royal Forest Park, 33 km2 in size, in which the Asa Forest Research Park 12 km2 in size, is included. A field station of the Swedish Agricultural University is located in the park, which was expropriated from its German owner in 1945 and become a Royal domain. The area is host to a number of research projects and conditions for synergistic cooperation is good. Technicians from the station assisted in sampling and data collection. Various parameters of the area are shown in Tab. 14.2. The park borders to Lake Asa, the majority of the area being found on the western side of the lake. A map of the area is shown in Fig. 13.1. The park is located 40 km north of the city of Vaxjo in the province of Smaland. Forestry in the area is traditional conifer forestry, representing the point of departure for any future changes. In the past, the original forest cover in Asa was a mixed deciduous forest dominated by lime (Tilia) and alder (Alnus), and also containing European beech (Fagus sylvatica), Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), oak (Quercus robur) and birch (Betula). Farming on the shores of the lake started around 1200 AD and Norway spruce entered the landscape on a small scale around 1600. Mixed deciduous vegetation dominated until clearance of the land by farmers from about 1700 onwards. After 1840, Norway spruce increased markedly through colonization and through planting on land that had been abandoned after large numbers of emigrants went to America. Small crofts and farms were reforested, a process that in the province of Smaland continued as a result of urbanization from about 1930 on until the present day. From now on conifers, and Norway spruce in particular, are dominant.