Search

The Magude Project assessed the feasibly of eliminating malaria in a low transmission setting in southern Mozambique using a package of interventions. This study measured the ownership, access and use of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) and inequalities in these indicators across household wealth, size and population subgroups, to understand the protection that LLINs provided during the project. Data were obtained from various household surveys. At least 31% of the nets distributed during the 2014 and 2017 campaigns were lost during the first year post-distribution. Most nets (77.1%) present in the district were Olyset Nets. LLIN access never exceeded 76.3% and use varied seasonally between 40% and 76.4%. LLIN access limited LLIN use during the project, especially during the high transmission season. LLIN ownership, access and use were lower in harder-to-reach localities, in poorer and larger households. Children and women below 30 had poorer access to LLINs than the overall population. Net use was lowest among school-aged children and young adults, especially among young males, and highest in children under 5, pregnant women, in older adults and in households that received indoor residual spraying (IRS). This study revealed that LLIN mass-distribution campaigns alone are not sufficient to achieve the high level of net protection needed during elimination programs and that reviewing the LLIN allocation scheme, top-up distributions and/or community engagement campaigns is needed, also to reduce inequalities in populations’ access to LLINs.

Recent dramatic declines in global malaria burden and mortality can be largely attributed to the large-scale deployment of insecticidal-based measures, namely long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying. However, the sustainability of these gains, and the feasibility of global malaria eradication by 2040, may be affected by increasing insecticide resistance among the Anopheles malaria vector. We employ a new differential-equations based mathematical model, which incorporates the full, weather-dependent mosquito lifecycle, to assess the population-level impact of the large-scale use of LLINs, under different levels of Anopheles pyrethroid insecticide resistance, on malaria transmission dynamics and control in a community. Moreover, we describe the bednet-mosquito interaction using parameters that can be estimated from the large experimental hut trial literature under varying levels of effective pyrethroid resistance. An expression for the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text], as a function of population-level bednet coverage, is derived. It is shown, owing to the phenomenon of backward bifurcation, that [Formula: see text] must be pushed appreciably below 1 to eliminate malaria in endemic areas, potentially complicating eradication efforts. Numerical simulations of the model suggest that, when the baseline [Formula: see text] is high (corresponding roughly to holoendemic malaria), very high bednet coverage with highly effective nets is necessary to approach conditions for malaria elimination. Further, while >50% bednet coverage is likely sufficient to strongly control or eliminate malaria from areas with a mesoendemic malaria baseline, pyrethroid resistance could undermine control and elimination efforts even in this setting. Our simulations show that pyrethroid resistance in mosquitoes appreciably reduces bednet effectiveness across parameter space. This modeling study also suggests that increasing pre-bloodmeal deterrence of mosquitoes (deterring them from entry into protected homes) actually hampers elimination efforts, as it may focus mosquito biting onto a smaller unprotected host subpopulation. Finally, we observe that temperature affects malaria potential independently of bednet coverage and pyrethroid-resistance levels, with both climate change and pyrethroid resistance posing future threats to malaria control.

Indoor residual spraying (IRS) has been and remains an important malaria control intervention in southern Mozambique, South Africa and Eswatini. A better understanding of the effectiveness of IRS campaigns is critical to guide future elimination efforts. We analyze the three IRS campaigns conducted during a malaria elimination demonstration project in southern Mozambique, the “Magude project”, and propose a new method to calculate the efficacy of IRS campaigns adjusting for IRS coverage, pace of house spraying and IRS residual efficacy on different wall types. Anopheles funestus sensu lato (s.l.) and An. gambiae s.l. were susceptible to pirimiphos-methyl and DDT. Anopheles funestus s.l. was resistant to pyrethroids, with 24h post-exposure mortality being lower for An. funestus sensu stricto (s.s.) than for An. parensis (collected indoors). The percentage of structures sprayed was above 90% and percentage of people covered above 86% in all three IRS campaigns. The percentage of households sprayed was above 83% in 2015 and 2016, but not assessed in 2017. Mosquito mortality 24h post-exposure stayed above 80% for 196 days after the 2016 IRS campaign and 222 days after the 2017 campaign and was 1.5 months longer on mud walls than on cement walls. This was extended by up to two months when 120h post-exposure mortality was considered. The district-level realized IRS efficacy was 113 days after the 2016 campaign. While the coverage of IRS campaigns in Magude were high, IRS protection did not remain optimal for the entire high malaria transmissions season. The use of a longer-lasting IRS product could have further supported the interruption of malaria transmission in the district. To better estimate the protection afforded by IRS campaigns, National Malaria Control Programs and partners are encouraged to adjust the calculation of IRS efficacy for IRS coverage, pace of house spraying during the campaign and IRS efficacy on different wall types combined with wall type distribution in the sprayed area.

Characterizing persistent malaria transmission that occurs after the combined deployment of indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) is critical to guide malaria control and elimination efforts. This requires a detailed understanding of both human and vector behaviors at the same temporal and spatial scale. Cross-sectional human behavior evaluations and mosquito collections were performed in parallel in Magude district, Mozambique. Net use and the exact time when participant moved into each of five environments (outdoor, indoor before bed, indoor in bed, indoor after getting up, and outdoor after getting up) were recorded for individuals from three different age groups and both sexes during a dry and a rainy season. Malaria mosquitoes were collected with CDC light traps in combination with collection bottle rotators. The percentage of residual exposure to host-seeking vectors that occurred in each environment was calculated for five local malaria vectors with different biting behaviors, and the actual (at observed levels of LLIN use) and potential (i.e. if all residents had used an LLIN) personal protection conferred by LLINs was estimated. Anopheles arabiensis was responsible for more than 74% of residents’ residual exposure to host-seeking vectors during the Magude project. The other four vector species (An. funestus s.s., An. parensis, An. squamosus and An. merus) were responsible for less than 10% each. The personal protection conferred by LLINs prevented only 39.2% of the exposure to host-seeking vectors that survived the implementation of both IRS and LLINs, and it differed significantly across seasons, vector species and age groups. At the observed levels of bednet use, 12.5% of all residual exposure to host-seeking vectors occurred outdoor during the evening, 21.9% indoor before going to bed, almost two thirds (64%) while people were in bed, 1.4% indoors after getting up and 0.2% outdoor after leaving the house. Almost a third of the residual exposure to host-seeking vectors (32.4%) occurred during the low transmission season. The residual bites of An. funestus s.s. and An. parensis outdoors and indoor before bedtime, of An. arabiensis indoors when people are in bed, and of An. squamosus both indoors and outdoors, are likely to have sustained malaria transmission throughout the Magude project. By increasing LLIN use, an additional 24.1% of exposure to the remaining hosts-seeking vectors could have been prevented. Since An. arabiensis, the most abundant vector, feeds primarily while people are in bed, increasing net use and net feeding inhibition (through e.g. community awareness activities and the selection of more effective LLINs) could significantly reduce the exposure to remaining host-seeking mosquitoes. Nonetheless, supplementary interventions aiming to reduce human-vector contact outdoors and/or indoors before people go to bed (e.g. through larval source management, window and eave screening, eave tubes, and spatial repellents) will be needed to reduce residual exposure to the outdoor and early biting An. funestus s.s. and An. parensis.

Monitoring local mosquito populations for insecticide resistance is critical for effective vector-borne disease control. However, widely used phenotypic assays, which are designed to monitor the emergence and spread of insecticide resistance (technical resistance), do not translate well to the efficacy of vector control products to suppress mosquito numbers in the field (practical resistance). This is because standard testing conditions such as environmental conditions, exposure dose, and type of substrate differ dramatically from those experienced by mosquitoes under field conditions. In addition, field mosquitoes have considerably different physiological characteristics such as age and blood-feeding status. Beyond this, indirect impacts of insecticide resistance and/or exposure on mosquito longevity, pathogen development, host-seeking behavior, and blood-feeding success impact disease transmission. Given the limited number of active ingredients currently available and the observed discordance between resistance and disease transmission, we conclude that additional testing guidelines are needed to determine practical resistance—the efficacy of vector control tools under relevant local conditions— in order to obtain programmatic impact.

BackgroundIndoor residual spraying (IRS) is one of the main malaria vector control strategies in Mozambique alongside the distribution of insecticide treated nets. As part of the national insecticide resistance management strategy, Mozambique introduced SumiShield™ 50WG, a third generation IRS product, in 2018. Its residual efficacy was assessed in southern Mozambique during the 2018-2019 malaria season.MethodsTwo different wall surfaces, cement and mud-plastered surfaces, daily mosquito mortality up to 120 hours post-exposure, and older mosquitoes (13-26d old) were included in standard WHO (World Health Organization) cone bioassay tests. Lethal times (LT) 90, LT50 and LT10 were estimated using Bayesian models.ResultsMortality 24h post exposure was consistently below 80%, the current WHO threshold value for effective IRS, in both young and old mosquitoes, regardless of wall surface type. Considering delayed mortality, residual efficacies (mosquito mortality equal or greater than 80%) ranged from 1 to ≥12 months, with the duration depending on mortality time post exposure, wall type and mosquito age. Looking at mortality 72h after exposure, residual efficacy was between 6 and 9 months, depending on wall type and mosquito age. Mortality of older mosquitoes was significantly higher on mud-surfaces compared to cemented-surfaces 24h post exposure, but this difference was not significant for the delayed mortalities. The LT50 and LT10 (i.e. 90% of the mosquitoes survive exposure to the insecticides) values were consistently higher for older mosquitoes using the 24h post-exposure observations and ranged from 0.2 to 5.7 months and 0.2 to 7.2 months for LT50 and LT10, respectively.ConclusionsThe present study highlights the need for assessing mosquito mortality beyond the currently recommended 24h post exposure. Failure to do so may lead to underestimation of the residual efficacy of IRS products, as delayed mortality will lead to a further reduction in mosquito vector populations and potentially negatively impact disease transmission. Monitoring residual efficacy on relevant wall surfaces, including old mosquitoes that are ultimately responsible for malaria transmission, and assessing delayed mortalities are critical to provide accurate and actionable data to guide vector control programmes.

Background Individual behavior, particularly choices about prevention, plays a key role in infection transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs). Since the actual risk of infection is often uncertain, individual behavior is influenced by the perceived risk. A low risk perception is likely to diminish the use of preventive measures (behavior). If risk perception is a good indicator of the actual risk, then it has important implications in a context of disease elimination. However, more research is needed to improve our understanding of the role of human behavior in disease transmission. The objective of this study is to explore whether preventive behavior is responsive to risk perception, taking into account the links with disease knowledge and controlling for individuals’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. More specifically, the study focuses on malaria, dengue fever, Zika and cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL), using primary data collected in Guyana–a key country for the control and/or elimination of VBDs, given its geographic location. Methods and findings The data were collected between August and December 2017 in four regions of the country. Questions on disease knowledge, risk perception and self-reported use of preventive measures were asked to each participant for the four diseases. A structural equation model was estimated. It focused on data collected from private households only in order to control for individuals’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, which led to a sample size of 497 participants. The findings showed evidence of a bidirectional association between risk perception and behavior. A one-unit increase in risk perception translated into a 0.53 unit increase in self-reported preventive behavior for all diseases, while a one-unit increase in self-reported preventive behavior (i.e. the use of an additional measure) led to a 0.46 unit decrease in risk perception for all diseases (except CL). This study also showed that higher education significantly improves knowledge and that better knowledge increases the take up of preventive measures for malaria and dengue, without affecting risk perception. Conclusions In trying to reach elimination, it appears crucial to promote awareness of the risks and facilitate access to preventive measures, so that lower risk perception does not translate into lower preventive behavior., Author summary In the context of Guyana, people’s self-reported behavior (i.e. use of vector control tools) is based on their risk perception and on their knowledge of the disease if the risk perception is high enough (i.e. for malaria and dengue fever). Measures donated by the government, such as bed nets, are widely reported to be used and their use is less likely to be contingent on the perceived risk. In other words, because those measures are donated, they are more likely to be used regardless of the risk perception. The type of region in which individuals live also plays a key role on the adoption of vector control measures: although people living in the hinterland tend to have greater knowledge about the disease and an accurate risk perception, they use fewer preventive measures than people living in the coastal regions–thus pointing to the importance of promoting access to preventive measures in the hinterland. Therefore, in trying to reach the elimination of vector-borne diseases, it is essential for the government to promote awareness of the risks and facilitate (i.e. donate) access to preventive measure to avoid a reduced usage of vector control measures arising from a lower risk perception.

Identifying ecological drivers of disease transmission is central to understanding disease risks. For vector-borne diseases, temperature is a major determinant of transmission because vital parameters determining the fitness of parasites and vectors are highly temperature-sensitive, including the extrinsic incubation period required for parasites to develop within the vector. Temperature also underlies dramatic differences in the individual-level variation in the extrinsic incubation period, yet the influence of this variation in disease transmission is largely unexplored. We incorporate empirical estimates of dengue virus extrinsic incubation period and its variation across a range of temperatures into a stochastic model to examine the consequences for disease emergence. We find that such variation impacts the probability of disease emergence because exceptionally rapid, but empirically observed incubation — typically ignored by modelling only the average — increases the chance of disease emergence even at the limits of the temperature range for dengue transmission. We show that variation in the extrinsic incubation period causes the greatest proportional increase in the risk of disease emergence at cooler temperatures where the mean incubation period is long, and associated variation is large. Thus, ignoring EIP variation will likely lead to underestimation of the risk of vector-borne disease emergence in temperate climates. Keywords: Extrinsic incubation period, Dengue, Vector-borne disease, Disease emergence, Temperate region

Background Malaria eradication remains the long-term vision of the World Health Organization (WHO). However, whether malaria elimination is feasible in areas of stable transmission in sub-Saharan Africa with currently available tools remains a subject of debate. This study aimed to evaluate a multiphased malaria elimination project to interrupt Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in a rural district of southern Mozambique. Methods and findings A before-after study was conducted between 2015 and 2018 in the district of Magude, with 48,448 residents living in 10,965 households. Building on an enhanced surveillance system, two rounds of mass drug administrations (MDAs) per year over two years (phase I, August 2015–2017), followed by one year of reactive focal mass drug administrations (rfMDAs) (phase II, September 2017–June 2018) were deployed with annual indoor residual spraying (IRS), programmatically distributed long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), and standard case management. The four MDA rounds covered 58%–72% of the population, and annual IRS reported coverage was >70%. Yearly parasite surveys and routine surveillance data were used to monitor the primary outcomes of the study—malaria prevalence and incidence—at baseline and annually since the onset of the project. Parasite prevalence by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) declined from 9.1% (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.0–11.8) in May 2015 to 2.6% (95% CI 2.0–3.4), representing a 71.3% (95% CI 71.1–71.4, p < 0.001) reduction after phase I, and to 1.4% (95% CI 0.9–2.2) after phase II. This represented an 84.7% (95% CI 81.4–87.4, p < 0.001) overall reduction in all-age prevalence. Case incidence fell from 195 to 75 cases per 1,000 during phase I (61.5% reduction) and to 67 per 1,000 during phase II (65.6% overall reduction). Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis was used to estimate the level and trend change in malaria cases associated with the set of project interventions and the number of cases averted. Phase I interventions were associated with a significant immediate reduction in cases of 69.1% (95% CI 57.5–77.6, p < 0.001). Phase II interventions were not associated with a level or trend change. An estimated 76.7% of expected cases were averted throughout the project (38,369 cases averted of 50,005 expected). One malaria-associated inpatient death was observed during the study period. There were 277 mild adverse events (AEs) recorded through the passive pharmacovigilance system during the four MDA rounds. One serious adverse event (SAE) that resulted in death was potentially related to the drug. The study was limited by the incomplete coverage of interventions, the quality of the routine and cross-sectional data collected, and the restricted accuracy of ITS analysis with a short pre-intervention period. Conclusion In this study, we observed that the interventions deployed during the Magude project fell short of interrupting P. falciparum transmission with the coverages achieved. While new tools and strategies may be required to eventually achieve malaria elimination in stable transmission areas of sub-Saharan Africa, this project showed that innovative mixes of interventions can achieve large reductions in disease burden, a necessary step in the pathway towards elimination. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02914145., Beatriz Galatas and colleagues evaluate a multi-intervention program for malaria prevention in southern Mozambique., Author summary Why was the study done? The World Health Organization (WHO) has the vision of malaria eradication. However, whether malaria elimination is possible in areas of stable transmission in sub-Saharan Africa remains a subject of debate. The Magude project was designed to evaluate the feasibility of malaria elimination using the prevention and treatment tools currently available, in a malaria endemic district of southern Mozambique. What did the researchers do and find? The project was divided into two phases aimed to drastically decrease the number of malaria cases to zero (phase I) and to sustain the gains for one year after phase I (phase II). The impact of the project was monitored through changes in the prevalence of infections in the community, the incidence of clinical cases detected at the health facilities (HFs), and the number of cases averted. Reductions of 84.7% of prevalence and 65.6% of incidence were observed during the project, which translated to an estimated 38,369 (76.7%) cases averted. What do these findings mean? Results from this project indicate that the implementation of a package of interventions in sub-Saharan Africa cannot interrupt malaria transmission, and therefore malaria elimination in these areas remains a long-term goal for which new tools and strategies may be required. In spite of this, the Magude project revealed that an intensive implementation of currently available tools recommended by WHO can achieve major reductions in malaria transmission and burden of disease.

A range of mosquito species that belong to the Culicidae family are responsible for the worldwide transmission of infectious arboviral diseases such as dengue fever, Zika, West Nile fever and Chikungunya fever. Spain is at risk of arbovirus outbreaks, as various arboviral diseases are frequently introduced and it has established competent vector populations. Autochthonous human cases of West Nile virus have been reported infrequently since 2004, and since October 2018 three autochthonous human case of dengue fever have been confirmed. In response to an outbreak of any arboviral disease, space spraying or fogging will be implemented to control adult mosquito populations. To ensure adulticiding is cost-effective, the insecticide susceptibility status of vectors throughout Catalonia, an autonomous region in north-eastern Spain, was assessed through standardized WHO tube and CDC bottle bioassays. All Culex pipiens populations tested were resistant to at least one of the pyrethroids tested, whereas Aedes albopictus populations were susceptible to all pyrethroids tested. More detailed studies on the Cx. pipiens populations from the Barcelona area (the capital and largest city of Catalonia) revealed resistance to all four classes of public health insecticides available (pyrethroids, carbamates, organophosphates and organochlorides). All Ae. albopictus populations were susceptible to those classes, except for one of the tests performed with pirimiphos-methyl (an organophosphate). Pyrethroids are currently the first line chemical class to be used in space spray operations in response to an outbreak of an arboviral disease. While pyrethroids can be effective in reducing Ae. albopictus populations, this class may not be effective to control Cx. pipiens populations.

Malaria prevalence has significantly reduced since 2000, largely due to the scale-up of vector control interventions, mainly indoor residual spraying (IRS) and long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs). Given their success, these tools remain the frontline interventions in the fight against malaria. Their effectiveness relies on three key ingredients: the intervention, the mosquito vector and the end-user. Regarding the intervention, factors such as the insecticide active ingredient(s) used and the durability and/or bio-efficacy of the tool over time are critical. For the vectors, these factors include biting and resting behaviours and the susceptibility to insecticides. Finally, the end-users need to accept and properly use the intervention. Whilst human attitude and behaviour towards LLINs are well-documented both during and after distribution, only initial coverage is monitored for IRS and in a few geographic settings the residual efficacy of the used product. Here, the historical evidence on end-users modifying their wall surfaces post-spraying is presented, a behaviour that has the potential to reduce actual IRS coverage, effectiveness and impact, as fewer people are truly protected. Therefore, clear guidelines on how to monitor IRS acceptability and/or coverage, both before, during and after spraying, are urgently needed as part of the Monitoring and Evaluation of malaria programmes.

A range of mosquito species that belong to the Culicidae family are responsible for the worldwide transmission of infectious arboviral diseases such as dengue fever, Zika, West Nile fever and Chikungunya fever. Spain is at risk of arbovirus outbreaks, as various arboviral diseases are frequently introduced and it has established competent vector populations. Autochthonous human cases of West Nile virus have been reported infrequently since 2004, and since October 2018 three autochthonous human case of dengue fever have been confirmed. In response to an outbreak of any arboviral disease, space spraying or fogging will be implemented to control adult mosquito populations. To ensure adulticiding is cost-effective, the insecticide susceptibility status of vectors throughout Catalonia, an autonomous region in north-eastern Spain, was assessed through standardized WHO tube and CDC bottle bioassays. All Culex pipiens populations tested were resistant to at least one of the pyrethroids tested, whereas Aedes albopictus populations were susceptible to all pyrethroids tested. More detailed studies on the Cx. pipiens populations from the Barcelona area (the capital and largest city of Catalonia) revealed resistance to all four classes of public health insecticides available (pyrethroids, carbamates, organophosphates and organochlorides). All Ae. albopictus populations were susceptible to those classes, except for one of the tests performed with pirimiphos-methyl (an organophosphate). Pyrethroids are currently the first line chemical class to be used in space spray operations in response to an outbreak of an arboviral disease. While pyrethroids can be effective in reducing Ae. albopictus populations, this class may not be effective to control Cx. pipiens populations.

Treating cattle with endectocide is a longstanding veterinary practice to reduce the load of endo and ectoparasites, but has the potential to be added to the malaria control and elimination toolbox, as it also kills malaria mosquitoes feeding on the animals. Here we used openly available data to map the areas of the African continent where high malaria prevalence in 2-10 year old children coincides with a high density of cattle and high density of the partly zoophilic malaria vector Anopheles arabiensis. That is, mapping the areas where treating cattle with endectocide would potentially have the greatest impact on reducing malaria transmission. In regions of Africa that are not dominated by rainforest nor desert, the map shows a scatter of areas in several countries where this intervention shows potential, including central and eastern sub-Saharan Africa. The savanna region underneath the Sahel in West Africa appears as the climatic block that would benefit to the largest extent from this intervention, encompassing several countries. West Africa currently presents the highest under-10 malaria prevalence and elimination within the next twenty years cannot be contemplated there with currently available interventions alone, making the use of endectocide treated cattle as a complementary intervention highly appealing.

BACKGROUND: It is anticipated that malaria elimination efforts in Africa will be hampered by increasing resistance to the limited arsenal of insecticides approved for use in public health. However, insecticide susceptibility status of vector populations evaluated under standard insectary test conditions can give a false picture of the threat, as the thermal environment in which the insect and insecticide interact plays a significant role in insecticide toxicity. METHODS: The effect of temperature on the expression of the standard WHO insecticide resistance phenotype was examined using Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus strains: a susceptible strain and the derived resistant strain, selected in the laboratory for resistance to DDT or pyrethroids. The susceptibility of mosquitoes to the pyrethroid deltamethrin or the carbamate bendiocarb was assessed at 18, 25 or 30 degrees C. The ability of the pyrethroid synergist piperonyl-butoxide (PBO) to restore pyrethroid susceptibility was also assessed at these temperatures. RESULTS: Temperature impacted the toxicity of deltamethrin and bendiocarb. Although the resistant An. funestus strain was uniformly resistant to deltamethrin across temperatures, increasing temperature increased the resistance of the susceptible An. arabiensis strain. Against susceptible An. funestus and resistant An. arabiensis females, deltamethrin exposure at temperatures both lower and higher than standard insectary conditions increased mortality. PBO exposure completely restored deltamethrin susceptibility at all temperatures. Bendiocarb displayed a consistently positive temperature coefficient against both susceptible and resistant An. funestus strains, with survival increasing as temperature increased. CONCLUSIONS: Environmental temperature has a marked effect on the efficacy of insecticides used in public health against important African malaria vectors. Caution must be exercised when drawing conclusions about a chemical's efficacy from laboratory assays performed at only one temperature, as phenotypic resistance can vary significantly even over a temperature range that could be experienced by mosquitoes in the field during a single day. Similarly, it might be inappropriate to assume equal efficacy of a control tool over a geographic area where local conditions vary drastically. Additional studies into the effects of temperature on the efficacy of insecticide-based interventions under field conditions are warranted.

Extrinsic environmental factors influence the distribution and population dynamics of many organisms, including insects that are of concern for human health and agriculture. This is particularly true for vector-borne infectious diseases, like malaria, which is a major source of morbidity and mortality in humans. Understanding the mechanistic links between environment and population processes for these diseases is key to predicting the consequences of climate change on transmission and for developing effective interventions. An important measure of the intensity of disease transmission is the reproductive number $R_0$. However, understanding the mechanisms linking $R_0$ and temperature, an environmental factor driving disease risk, can be challenging because the data available for parameterization are often poor. To address this we show how a Bayesian approach can help identify critical uncertainties in components of $R_0$ and how this uncertainty is propagated into the estimate of $R_0$. Most notably, we find that different parameters dominate the uncertainty at different temperature regimes: bite rate from 15-25$^\circ$ C; fecundity across all temperatures, but especially $\sim$25-32$^\circ$ C; mortality from 20-30$^\circ$ C; parasite development rate at $\sim$15-16$^\circ$C and again at $\sim$33-35$^\circ$C. Focusing empirical studies on these parameters and corresponding temperature ranges would be the most efficient way to improve estimates of $R_0$. While we focus on malaria, our methods apply to improving process-based models more generally, including epidemiological, physiological niche, and species distribution models., 27 pages, including 1 table and 3 figures

Temperature is a key environmental driver of Anopheles mosquito population dynamics; understanding its central role is important for these malaria vectors. Mosquito population responses to temperature fluctuations, though important across the life history, are poorly understood at a population level. We used stage-structured, temperature-dependent delay-differential equations to conduct a detailed exploration of the impacts of diurnal and annual temperature fluctuations on mosquito population dynamics. The model allows exploration of temperature-driven temporal changes in adult age structure, giving insights into the population's capacity to vector malaria parasites. Because of temperature-dependent shifts in age structure, the abundance of potentially infectious mosquitoes varies temporally, and does not necessarily mirror the dynamics of the total adult population. In addition to conducting the first comprehensive theoretical exploration of fluctuating temperatures on mosquito population dynamics, we analysed observed temperatures at four locations in Africa covering a range of environmental conditions. We found both temperature and precipitation are needed to explain the observed malaria season in these locations, enhancing our understanding of the drivers of malaria seasonality and how temporal disease risk may shift in response to temperature changes. This approach, tracking both mosquito abundance and age structure, may be a powerful tool for understanding current and future malaria risk.

Ectotherms are considered to be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. Descriptions of habitat temperatures and predicted changes in climate usually consider mean monthly, seasonal or annual conditions. Ectotherms, however, do not simply experience mean conditions, but are exposed to daily fluctuations in habitat temperatures. Here, we highlight how temperature fluctuation can generate 'realized' thermal reaction (fitness) norms that differ from the 'fundamental' norms derived under standard constant temperatures. Using a mosquito as a model organism, we find that temperature fluctuation reduces rate processes such as development under warm conditions, increases processes under cool conditions, and reduces both the optimum and the critical maximum temperature. Generalizing these effects for a range of terrestrial insects reveals that prevailing daily fluctuations in temperature should alter the sensitivity of species to climate warming by reducing 'thermal safety margins'. Such effects of daily temperature dynamics have generally been ignored in the climate change literature.

Summary The effectiveness of conventional malaria vector control is being threatened by the spread of insecticide resistance. One promising alternative to chemicals is the use of naturally occurring insect‐killing fungi. Numerous laboratory studies have shown that isolates of fungal pathogens such as Beauveria bassiana can infect and kill adult mosquitoes, including those resistant to chemical insecticides.Unlike chemical insecticides, fungi may take up to a week or more to kill mosquitoes following exposure. This slow kill speed can still reduce malaria transmission because the malaria parasite itself takes at least eight days to complete its development within the mosquito. However, both fungal virulence and parasite development rate are strongly temperature‐dependent, so it is possible that biopesticide efficacy could vary across different transmission environments.We examined the virulence of a candidate fungal isolate against two key malaria vectors at temperatures from 10 to 34 °C. Regardless of temperature, the fungus killed more than 90% of exposed mosquitoes within the predicted duration of the malarial extrinsic incubation period, a result that was robust to realistic diurnal temperature variation.We then incorporated temperature sensitivities of a suite of mosquito, parasite and fungus life‐history traits that are important determinants of malaria transmission into a stage‐structured malaria transmission model. The model predicted that, at achievable daily fungal infection rates, fungal biopesticides have the potential to deliver substantial reductions in the density of malaria‐infectious mosquitoes across all temperatures representative of malaria transmission environments. Synthesis and applications. Our study combines empirical data and theoretical modelling to prospectively evaluate the potential of fungal biopesticides to control adult malaria vectors. Our results suggest that Beauveria bassiana could be a potent tool for malaria control and support further development of fungal biopesticides to manage infectious disease vectors., Our study combines empirical data and theoretical modelling to prospectively evaluate the potential of fungal biopesticides to control adult malaria vectors. Our results suggest that Beauveria bassiana could be a potent tool for malaria control and support further development of fungal biopesticides to manage infectious disease vectors.

Gelabert, Pere et al., Phylogenetic analysis of Plasmodium parasites has indicated that their modern-day distribution is a result of a series of human-mediated dispersals involving transport between Africa, Europe, America, and Asia. A major outstanding question is the phylogenetic affinity of the malaria causing parasites Plasmodium vivax and falciparum in historic southern Europe—where it was endemic until the mid-20th century, after which it was eradicated across the region. Resolving the identity of these parasites will be critical for answering several hypotheses on the malaria dispersal. Recently, a set of slides with blood stains of malaria-affected people from the Ebro Delta (Spain), dated between 1942 and 1944, have been found in a local medical collection. We extracted DNA from three slides, two of them stained with Giemsa (on which Plasmodium parasites could still be seen under the microscope) and another one consisting of dried blood spots. We generated the data using Illumina sequencing after using several strategies aimed at increasing the Plasmodium DNA yield: depletion of the human genomic (g)DNA content through hybridization with human gDNA baits, and capture-enrichment using gDNA derived from P. falciparum. Plasmodium mitochondrial genome sequences were subsequently reconstructed from the resulting data. Phylogenetic analysis of the eradicated European P. vivax mtDNA genome indicates that the European isolate is closely related to the most common present-day American haplotype and likely entered the American continent post-Columbian contact. Furthermore, the European P. falciparum mtDNA indicates a link with current Indian strains that is in agreement with historical accounts., This research was supported from European Regional Development Fund and Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness of Spain Grant BFU2015-64699-P (to C.L.-F.) and a European Research Council Consolidator Grant 681396 - Extinction Genomics (to M.T.P.G.).

Most studies on the ability of insect populations to transmit pathogens consider only constant temperatures and do not account for realistic daily temperature fluctuations that can impact vector–pathogen interactions. Here, we show that diurnal temperature range (DTR) affects two important parameters underlying dengue virus (DENV) transmission by Aedes aegypti . In two independent experiments using different DENV serotypes, mosquitoes were less susceptible to virus infection and died faster under larger DTR around the same mean temperature. Large DTR (20 °C) decreased the probability of midgut infection, but not duration of the virus extrinsic incubation period (EIP), compared with moderate DTR (10 °C) or constant temperature. A thermodynamic model predicted that at mean temperatures 18 °C, larger DTR reduces DENV transmission. The negative impact of DTR on Ae. aegypti survival indicates that large temperature fluctuations will reduce the probability of vector survival through EIP and expectation of infectious life. Seasonal variation in the amplitude of daily temperature fluctuations helps to explain seasonal forcing of DENV transmission at locations where average temperature does not vary seasonally and mosquito abundance is not associated with dengue incidence. Mosquitoes lived longer and were more likely to become infected under moderate temperature fluctuations, which is typical of the high DENV transmission season than under large temperature fluctuations, which is typical of the low DENV transmission season. Our findings reveal the importance of considering short-term temperature variations when studying DENV transmission dynamics.

The incubation period for malaria parasites within the mosquito is exquisitely temperature-sensitive, so that temperature is a major determinant of malaria risk. Epidemiological models are increasingly used to guide allocation of disease control resources and to assess the likely impact of climate change on global malaria burdens. Temperature-based malaria transmission is generally incorporated into these models using mean monthly temperatures, yet temperatures fluctuate throughout the diurnal cycle. Here we use a thermodynamic malaria development model to demonstrate that temperature fluctuation can substantially alter the incubation period of the parasite, and hence malaria transmission rates. We find that, in general, temperature fluctuation reduces the impact of increases in mean temperature. Diurnal temperature fluctuation around means >21°C slows parasite development compared with constant temperatures, whereas fluctuation around

The present paper reports the occurrence of competition between larvae of the malaria mosquito sibling species Anopheles arabiensis and An. gambiae under ambient conditions in western Kenya. Larvae of both species were reared at the same density and under the same food conditions outdoors in single-species and mixed-species populations (species ratio 1:1) in transparent cups that floated in small and large semi-natural pools, which experienced different diurnal variations in water temperature. In a second experiment, both species were reared at similar densities and under the same food conditions in trays in either single-species or mixed-species populations at different proportions (species ratio 1:1, 1:3 or 3:1). Competition affected the development rate of both species in an opposite way: the development time of larvae of An. arabiensis increased whereas the development time of larvae of An. gambiae decreased in the presence of its sibling species. In small pools larvae developing in mixed-species populations experienced a higher mortality than larvae reared in single-species populations, whereas no such effect was observed in the large pools. In both species the time to pupation was longer and emerging females were larger in the small pools. Larval mortality of An. arabiensis was lower in the small pools compared to the large pools, whereas An. gambiae showed the opposite trend. Overall An. arabiensis showed reduced development rates, higher mortality rates and emerged with a larger body size compared to An. gambiae. The implication of these competitive interactions between larvae of An. arabiensis and An. gambiae under semi-filed conditions needs to be considered in the design and implementation of programmes that aim to reduce malaria transmission as competition may alter the species composition in the field.

Water temperature is an important determinant in many aquatic biological processes, including the growth and development of malaria mosquito (Anopheles arabiensis and A. gambiae) immatures. Water turbidity affects water temperature, as suspended particles in a water column absorb and scatter sunlight and hence determine the extinction of solar radiation. To get a better understanding of the relationship between water turbidity and water temperature, a series of semi-natural larval habitats (diameter 0.32 m, water depth 0.16 m) with increasing water turbidity was created. Here we show that at midday (1300 hours) the upper water layer (thickness of 10 mm) of the water pool with the highest turbidity was on average 2.8 degrees C warmer than the same layer of the clearest water pool. Suspended soil particles increase the water temperature and furthermore change the temperature dynamics of small water collections during daytime, exposing malaria mosquito larvae, which live in the top water layer, longer to higher temperatures.

Water temperature is a critical regulator in the growth and development of malaria mosquito immatures, as they are poikilothermic. Measuring or estimating the diurnal temperature ranges to which these immatures are exposed is of the utmost importance, as these immatures will develop into adults that can transmit malaria. Recent attempts to predict the daily water temperature dynamics in mosquito breeding sites in Kenya have been successful. However, the developed model may be too complex, as the sophisticated equipment that was used for detailed meteorological observations is not widely distributed in Africa, making it difficult to predict the daily water temperature dynamics on a local scale. Therefore, we compared two energy budget models with earlier made observations of the daily water temperature dynamics in a small, shallow and clear water pool (diameter 0.96 m, depth 0.32 m) in Kenya. This paper describes (1) a complex 1-Dimensional model, and (2) a simplified second model, and (3) shows that both models mimic the water temperature dynamics in the water pool accurately. The latter model has the advantage that it only needs common weather data (air temperature, air humidity, wind speed and cloud cover) to estimate the diurnal temperature dynamics in breeding sites of African malaria mosquitoes.

BACKGROUND: Chemical insecticides are crucial to malaria control and elimination programmes. The frontline vector control interventions depend mainly on pyrethroids; all long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) and more than 80% of indoor residual spraying (IRS) campaigns use chemicals from this class. This extensive use of pyrethroids imposes a strong selection pressure for resistance in mosquito populations, and so continuous resistance monitoring and evaluation are important. As pyrethroids have also been used for many years in the Manhica District, an area in southern Mozambique with perennial malaria transmission, an assessment of their efficacy against the local malaria vectors was conducted. METHODS: Female offspring of wild-caught Anopheles funestus s.s. females were exposed to deltamethrin, lambda-cyhalothrin and permethrin using the World Health Organization (WHO) insecticide-resistance monitoring protocols. The 3-min WHO cone bioassay was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the bed nets distributed or available for purchase in the area (Olyset, permethrin LLIN; PermaNet 2.0, deltamethrin LLIN) against An. funestus. Mosquitoes were also exposed to PermaNet 2.0 for up to 8 h in time-exposure assays. RESULTS: Resistance to pyrethroids in An. funestus s.s. was extremely high, much higher than reported in 2002 and 2009. No exposure killed more than 25.8% of the mosquitoes tested (average mortality, deltamethrin: 6.4%; lambda-cyhalothrin: 5.1%; permethrin: 19.1%). There was no significant difference in the mortality generated by 3-min exposure to any net (Olyset: 9.3% mortality, PermaNet 2.0: 6.0%, untreated: 2.0%; p = 0.2). Six hours of exposure were required to kill 50% of the An. funestus s.s. on PermaNet 2.0. CONCLUSIONS: Anopheles funestus s.s. in Manhica is extremely resistant to pyrethroids, and this area is clearly a pyrethroid-resistance hotspot. This could severely undermine vector control in this district if no appropriate countermeasures are undertaken. The National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) of Mozambique is currently improving its resistance monitoring programme, to design and scale up new management strategies. These actions are urgently needed, as the goal of the NMCP and its partners is to reach elimination in southern Mozambique by 2020.

Several highland areas in eastern Africa have recently suffered from serious malaria epidemics. Some models predict that, in the short term, these areas will experience more epidemics as a result of global warming. However, the various processes underlying these changes are poorly understood. We therefore investigated malaria prevalence, malaria vector densities and malaria vector survival in a highland area in western Kenya, ranging from approximately 1,550-1,650 m altitude. Although only five adult malaria vectors were collected during 180 light traps and 180 resting collections over a 23-month study period, malaria was prevalent among school children (average parasite prevalence: 10%). During an extensive survey of potential larval habitats, we identified only seven habitats containing Anopheles gambiae Giles s.l. larvae. Their limited number and low larval densities suggested that their contribution to the adult vector population was small. Experiments on adult and larval survival showed that at this altitude, adult mosquitoes survived inside local houses, but that larval development was severely retarded: only 2 of 500 A. gambiae s.l. larvae developed to the pupal stage, whereas all other larvae died prior to pupation. At present, high vector densities are unlikely because of unfavourable abiotic conditions in the area. However, temporary favourable conditions, such as during El Niño years, may increase larval vector survival and may lead to malaria epidemics.

Background Insecticides are critical components of malaria control programmes. In a variety of insect species, temperature plays a fundamental role in determining the outcome of insecticide exposure. However, surprisingly little is known about how temperature affects the efficacy of chemical interventions against malaria vectors. Methods Anopheles stephensi, with no recent history of insecticide exposure, were exposed to the organophosphate malathion or the pyrethroid permethrin at 12, 18, 22, or 26°C, using the WHO tube resistance-monitoring assay. To evaluate the effect of pre-exposure temperature on susceptibility, adult mosquitoes were kept at 18 or 26°C until just before exposure, and then moved to the opposite temperature. Twenty-four hours after exposure, mosquitoes exposed at

Background Environmental temperature is an important driver of malaria transmission dynamics. Both the parasite and vector are sensitive to mean ambient temperatures and daily temperature variation. To understand transmission ecology, therefore, it is important to determine the range of microclimatic temperatures experienced by malaria vectors in the field. Methods A pilot study was conducted in the Indian city of Chennai to determine the temperature variation in urban microclimates and characterize the thermal ecology of the local transmission setting. Temperatures were measured in a range of probable indoor and outdoor resting habitats of Anopheles stephensi in two urban slum malaria sites. Mean temperatures and daily temperature fluctuations in local transmission sites were compared with standard temperature measures from the local weather station. The biological implications of the different temperatures were explored using temperature-dependent parasite development models to provide estimates of the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum. Results Mean daily temperatures within the urban transmission sites were generally warmer than those recorded at the local weather station. The main reason was that night-time temperatures were higher (and hence diurnal temperature ranges smaller) in the urban settings. Mean temperatures and temperature variation also differed between specific resting sites within the transmission environments. Most differences were of the order of 1-3°C but were sufficient to lead to important variation in predicted EIPs and hence, variation in estimates of transmission intensity. Conclusions Standard estimates of environmental temperature derived from local weather stations do not necessarily provide realistic measures of temperatures within actual transmission environments. Even the small differences in mean temperatures or diurnal temperature ranges reported in this study can lead to large variations in key mosquito and/or parasite life history traits that determine transmission intensity. Greater effort should be directed at quantifying adult mosquito resting behaviour and determining the temperatures actually experienced by mosquitoes and parasites in local transmission environments. In the absence of such highly resolved data, the approach used in the current study provides a framework for improved thermal characterization of transmission settings.

Temperature is an important determinant of malaria transmission. Recent work has shown that mosquito and parasite biology are influenced not only by average temperature, but also by the extent of the daily temperature variation. Here we examine how parasite development within the mosquito (Extrinsic Incubation Period) is expected to vary over time and space depending on the diurnal temperature range and baseline mean temperature in Kenya and across Africa. Our results show that under cool conditions, the typical approach of using mean monthly temperatures alone to characterize the transmission environment will underestimate parasite development. In contrast, under warmer conditions, the use of mean temperatures will overestimate development. Qualitatively similar patterns hold using both outdoor and indoor temperatures. These findings have important implications for defining malaria risk. Furthermore, understanding the influence of daily temperature dynamics could provide new insights into ectotherm ecology both now and in response to future climate change.

Most biological process-based models that approximate temperature to estimate the various mosquito and parasite life history variables that influence disease transmission intensity. However, mosquitoes, and parasites within them, do not experience ‘average temperatures’, but are exposed to temperatures that can fluctuate considerably throughout the day. In addition, endophilic mosquitoes will be exposed to indoor temperatures and not directly to outdoor air temperature. Further, mosquito larvae live in aquatic habitats and so again, are not exposed directly to outdoor air temperatures. In this chapter we highlight how these different temperatures can all change malaria risk predictions. To understand malaria dynamics, inform operational control objectives and predict consequences of climate change, we need a better mechanistic understanding of vector-parasite interactions, with improved integration of the biological and environmental parameters at a scale relevant to conditions actually experienced by both mosquitoes and malaria parasites.

Recent ecological research has revealed that environmental factors can strongly affect insect immunity and influence the outcome of host-parasite interactions. To date, however, most studies examining immune function in mosquitoes have ignored environmental variability. We argue that one such environmental variable, temperature, influences both vector immunity and the parasite itself. As temperatures in the field can vary greatly from the ambient temperature in the laboratory, it will be essential to take temperature into account when studying vector immunology.