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The last few years have seen the emergence of a wide array of novel techniques for analyzing high-precision data from upcoming galaxy surveys, which aim to extend the statistical analysis of galaxy clustering data beyond the linear regime and the canonical two-point (2pt) statistics. We test and benchmark some of these new techniques in a community data challenge "Beyond-2pt", initiated during the Aspen 2022 Summer Program "Large-Scale Structure Cosmology beyond 2-Point Statistics," whose first round of results we present here. The challenge dataset consists of high-precision mock galaxy catalogs for clustering in real space, redshift space, and on a light cone. Participants in the challenge have developed end-to-end pipelines to analyze mock catalogs and extract unknown ("masked") cosmological parameters of the underlying $\Lambda$CDM models with their methods. The methods represented are density-split clustering, nearest neighbor statistics, BACCO power spectrum emulator, void statistics, LEFTfield field-level inference using effective field theory (EFT), and joint power spectrum and bispectrum analyses using both EFT and simulation-based inference. In this work, we review the results of the challenge, focusing on problems solved, lessons learned, and future research needed to perfect the emerging beyond-2pt approaches. The unbiased parameter recovery demonstrated in this challenge by multiple statistics and the associated modeling and inference frameworks supports the credibility of cosmology constraints from these methods. The challenge data set is publicly available and we welcome future submissions from methods that are not yet represented., Comment: New submissions welcome! Challenge data available at https://github.com/ANSalcedo/Beyond2ptMock

SPHEREx, the Spectro-Photometer for the History of the Universe, Epoch of Reionization, and ices Explorer, is a NASA MIDEX mission planned for launch in 2024. SPHEREx will carry out the first all-sky spectral survey at wavelengths between 0.75 micron and 5 micron with spectral resolving power ~40 between 0.75 and 3.8 micron and ~120 between 3.8 and 5 micron At the end of its two-year mission, SPHEREx will provide 0.75-to-5 micron spectra of each 6.2"x6.2" pixel on the sky - 14 billion spectra in all. This paper updates an earlier description of SPHEREx presenting changes made during the mission's Preliminary Design Phase, including a discussion of instrument integration and test and a summary of the data processing, analysis, and distribution plans.

Kinematic lensing (KL) is a new weak lensing technique that reduces shape noise for disk galaxies by including spectroscopically measured galaxy kinematics in addition to photometrically measured galaxy shapes. Since KL utilizes the Tully-Fisher relation, any correlation of this relation with the local environment may bias the cosmological interpretation. For the first time, we explore such a Tully-Fisher environmental dependence (TED) effect as a potential astrophysical systematic for KL. Our derivation of the TED systematic can be described in a similar analytical form as intrinsic alignment for traditional weak lensing. We demonstrate analytically that TED only impacts KL if intrinsic aligment for disk galaxies is non-zero. We further use IllustrisTNG simulations to quantify the TED effect. Our two-point correlation measurements do not yield any additional coherent signals that would indicate a systematic bias on KL, within the uncertainties set by the simulation volume., Comment: 12 pages, 5 figures, to be submitted to PRD

Validating modeling choices through simulated analyses and quantifying the impact of different systematic effects will form a major computational bottleneck in the preparation for 3$\times$2 analysis with Stage-IV surveys such as Vera Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). We can significantly reduce the computational requirements by using machine learning based emulators, which allow us to run fast inference while maintaining the full realism of the data analysis pipeline. In this paper, we use such an emulator to run simulated 3$\times$2 (cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering) analyses for mock LSST-Y1/Y3/Y6/Y10 surveys and study the impact of various systematic effects (galaxy bias, intrinsic alignment, baryonic physics, shear calibration and photo-$z$ uncertainties). Closely following the DESC Science Requirement Document (with several updates) our main findings are: {\it a)} The largest contribution to the `systematic error budget' of LSST 3$\times$2 analysis comes from galaxy bias uncertainties, while the contribution of baryonic and shear calibration uncertainties are significantly less important. {\it b)} Tighter constraints on intrinsic alignment and photo-$z$ parameters can improve cosmological constraints noticeably, which illustrates synergies of LSST and spectroscopic surveys. {\it c)} The scale cuts adopted in the DESC SRD may be too conservative and pushing to smaller scales can increase cosmological information significantly. {\it d)} We investigate the impact of photo-$z$ outliers on 3$\times$2 pt analysis and find that we need to determine the outlier fraction to within $5-10\%$ accuracy to ensure robust cosmological analysis. We caution that these findings depend on analysis choices (parameterizations, priors, scale cuts) and can change for different settings., Comment: 16 pages, 10 Figures, To be submitted to PRD. Comments welcome

The next generation of cosmological surveys is expected to generate unprecedented high-quality data, consequently increasing the already substantial computational costs of Bayesian statistical methods. This will pose a significant challenge to analyzing theoretical models of cosmology. Additionally, new mitigation techniques of baryonic effects, intrinsic alignment, and other systematic effects will inevitably introduce more parameters, slowing down the convergence of Bayesian analyses. In this scenario, machine-learning-based accelerators are a promising solution, capable of reducing the computational costs and execution time of such tools by order of thousands. Yet, they have not been able to provide accurate predictions over the wide prior ranges in parameter space adopted by Stage III/IV collaborations in studies employing real-space two-point correlation functions. This paper offers a leap in this direction by carefully investigating the modern transformer-based neural network (NN) architectures in realistic simulated Rubin Observatory year one cosmic shear $\Lambda$CDM inferences. Building on the framework introduced in Part I, we generalize the transformer block and incorporate additional layer types to develop a more versatile architecture. We present a scalable method to efficiently generate an extensive training dataset that significantly exceeds the scope of prior volumes considered in Part I, while still meeting strict accuracy standards. Through our meticulous architecture comparison and comprehensive hyperparameter optimization, we establish that the attention-based architecture performs an order of magnitude better in accuracy than widely adopted NN designs. Finally, we test and apply our emulators to calibrate tension metrics.

We present a new class of machine-learning emulators that accurately model the cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering real space correlation functions in the context of Rubin Observatory year one simulated data. To illustrate its capabilities in forecasting models beyond the standard $\Lambda$CDM, we forecast how well LSST Year 1 data will be able to probe the consistency between geometry $\Omega^{\rm geo}_\mathrm{m}$ and growth $\Omega^{\rm growth}_\mathrm{m}$ dark matter densities in the so-called split $\Lambda$CDM parameterization. When trained with a few million samples, our emulator shows uniform accuracy across a wide range in an 18-dimensional parameter space. We provide a detailed comparison of three neural network designs, illustrating the importance of adopting state-of-the-art Transformer blocks. Our study also details their performance when computing Bayesian evidence for cosmic shear on three fiducial cosmologies. The transformers-based emulator is always accurate within PolyChord's precision. As an application, we use our emulator to study the degeneracies between dark energy models and growth geometry split parameterizations. We find that the growth-geometry split remains to be a meaningful test of the smooth dark energy assumption., Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures

Upcoming cosmic shear analyses will precisely measure the cosmic matter distribution at low redshifts. At these redshifts, the matter distribution is affected by galaxy formation physics, primarily baryonic feedback from star formation and active galactic nuclei. Employing measurements from the Magneticum and IllustrisTNG simulations and a dark matter + baryon (DMB) halo model, this paper demonstrates that Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (SZ) effect observations of galaxy clusters, whose masses have been calibrated using weak gravitational lensing, can constrain the baryonic impact on cosmic shear with statistical and systematic errors subdominant to the measurement errors of DES-Y3 and LSST-Y1. We further dissect the contributions from different scales and halos with different masses to cosmic shear, highlighting the dominant role of SZ clusters at scales critical for cosmic shear analyses. These findings suggest a promising avenue for future joint analyses of Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) and lensing surveys., Comment: To be submitted to JCAP. Comments are welcome!

The bispectrum is an important statistics helpful for measuring the primordial non-Gaussianity parameter $f_{\mathrm{NL}}$ to less than order unity in error, which would allow us to distinguish between single and multi-field inflation models. The Spectro-Photometer for the History of the Universe, Epoch of Reionization and Ices Explorer (SPHEREx) mission is particularly well-suited for making this measurement with its $\sim$100-band all-sky observations in the near-infrared. Consequently, the SPHEREx data will contain galaxies with spectroscopic-like redshift measurements as well as those with much larger errors. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of photometric redshift errors on $f_{\mathrm{NL}}$ constraints in the context of an updated multi-tracer forecast for SPHEREx, finding that the azimuthal averages of the first three even bispectrum multipoles are no longer sufficient for capturing most of the information (as opposed to the case of spectroscopic surveys shown in the literature). The final SPHEREx result with all five galaxy samples and six redshift bins is however not severely impacted because the total result is dominated by the samples with the best redshift errors, while the worse samples serve to reduce cosmic variance. Our fiducial result of $\sigma_{f_{\mathrm{NL}}} = 0.7$ from bispectrum alone is increased by $18\%$ and $3\%$ when using $l_{\mathrm{max}}=0$ and 2 respectively. We also explore the impact on parameter constraints when varying the fiducial redshift errors, as well as using subsets of multi-tracer combinations or triangles with different squeezing factors. Note that the fiducial result here is not the final SPHEREx capability, which is still on target for being $\sigma_{f_{\mathrm{NL}}} = 0.5$ once the power spectrum will be included., Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures

We constrain cosmology and baryonic feedback scenarios with a joint analysis of weak lensing, galaxy clustering, cosmic microwave background (CMB) lensing, and their cross-correlations (so-called 6$\times$2) using data from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Y1 and the Planck satellite mission. Noteworthy features of our 6$\times$2 pipeline are: We extend CMB lensing cross-correlation measurements to a band surrounding the DES Y1 footprint (a $\sim 25\%$ gain in pairs), and we develop analytic covariance capabilities that account for different footprints and all cross-terms in the 6$\times$2 analysis. We also measure the DES Y1 cosmic shear two-point correlation function (2PCF) down to $0.^\prime 25$, but find that going below $2.^\prime 5$ does not increase cosmological information due to shape noise. We model baryonic physics uncertainties via the amplitude of Principal Components (PCs) derived from a set of hydro-simulations. Given our statistical uncertainties, varying the first PC amplitude $Q_1$ is sufficient to model small-scale cosmic shear 2PCF. For DES Y1+Planck 6$\times$2 we find $S_8=0.799\pm0.016$, comparable to the 5$\times$2 result of DES Y3+SPT/Planck $S_8=0.773\pm0.016$. Combined with our most informative cosmology priors -- baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN), type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), and Planck 2018 EE+lowE, we measure $S_8=0.817\pm 0.011$. Regarding baryonic physics constraints, our 6$\times$2 analysis finds $Q_1=2.8\pm1.8$. Combined with the aforementioned priors, it improves the constraint to $Q_1=3.5\pm1.3$. For comparison, the strongest feedback scenario considered in this paper, the cosmo-OWLS AGN ($\Delta T_\mathrm{heat}=10^{8.7}$ K), corresponds to $Q_1=5.84$., Comment: 24 pages, 13 figures, comments are welcome!

The overlap of galaxy surveys and CMB experiments presents an ideal opportunity for joint cosmological dataset analyses. In this paper we develop a halo-model-based method for the first joint analysis combining these two experiments using 10 correlated two-point functions (10x2pt) derived from galaxy position, galaxy shear, CMB lensing convergence, and Compton-y fields. We explore this method using the Vera Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Simons Observatory (SO) as examples. We find such LSSxCMB joint analyses lead to significant improvement in Figure-of-Merit of $\Omega_m$ and $S_8$ over the constraints from using LSS-only probes within $\Lambda$CDM. We identify that the shear-$y$ and $y$-$y$ correlations are the most valuable additions when tSZ is included. We further identify the dominant sources of halo model uncertainties in the small-scale modelling, and investigate the impact of halo self-calibration due to the inclusion of small-scale tSZ information., Comment: 14 pages, 9 figures, typos corrected. Accepted in MNRAS

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope is capable of delivering an unprecedented all-sky, high-spatial resolution, multi-epoch infrared map to the astronomical community. This opportunity arises in the midst of numerous ground- and space-based surveys that will provide extensive spectroscopy and imaging together covering the entire sky (such as Rubin/LSST, Euclid, UNIONS, SPHEREx, DESI, SDSS-V, GALAH, 4MOST, WEAVE, MOONS, PFS, UVEX, NEO Surveyor, etc.). Roman can uniquely provide uniform high-spatial-resolution (~0.1 arcsec) imaging over the entire sky, vastly expanding the science reach and precision of all of these near-term and future surveys. This imaging will not only enhance other surveys, but also facilitate completely new science. By imaging the full sky over two epochs, Roman can measure the proper motions for stars across the entire Milky Way, probing 100 times fainter than Gaia out to the very edge of the Galaxy. Here, we propose NANCY: a completely public, all-sky survey that will create a high-value legacy dataset benefiting innumerable ongoing and forthcoming studies of the universe. NANCY is a pure expression of Roman's potential: it images the entire sky, at high spatial resolution, in a broad infrared bandpass that collects as many photons as possible. The majority of all ongoing astronomical surveys would benefit from incorporating observations of NANCY into their analyses, whether these surveys focus on nearby stars, the Milky Way, near-field cosmology, or the broader universe., Comment: Submitted to the call for white papers for the Roman Core Community Survey (June 16th, 2023), and to the Bulletin of the AAS

We propose that observations of super-massive galaxies contain cosmological constraining power similar to conventional cluster cosmology, and we provide promising indications that the associated systematic errors are comparably easier to control. We consider a fiducial spectroscopic and stellar mass complete sample of galaxies drawn from the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Survey (DESI) and forecast how constraints on Omega_m-sigma_8 from this sample will compare with those from number counts of clusters based on richness. At fixed number density, we find that massive galaxies offer similar constraints to galaxy clusters. However, a mass-complete galaxy sample from DESI has the potential to probe lower halo masses than standard optical cluster samples (which are typically limited to richness above 20 and halo mass above 10^13.5); additionally, it is straightforward to cleanly measure projected galaxy clustering for such a DESI sample, which we show can substantially improve the constraining power on Omega_m. We also compare the constraining power of stellar mass-limited samples to those from larger but mass-incomplete samples (e.g., the DESI Bright Galaxy Survey, BGS, Sample); relative to a lower number density stellar mass-limited samples, we find that a BGS-like sample improves statistical constraints by 60% for Omega_m and 40% for sigma_8, but this uses small scale information which will be harder to model for BGS. Our initial assessment of the systematics associated with supermassive galaxy cosmology yields promising results. The proposed samples have a 10% satellite fraction, but we show that cosmological constraints may be robust to the impact of satellites. These findings motivate future work to realize the potential of super-massive galaxies to probe lower halo masses than richness-based clusters and to avoid persistent systematics associated with optical cluster finding.

We present the Cardinal mock galaxy catalogs, a new version of the Buzzard simulation that has been updated to support ongoing and future cosmological surveys, including DES, DESI, and LSST. These catalogs are based on a one-quarter sky simulation populated with galaxies out to a redshift of $z=2.35$ to a depth of $m_{\rm{r}}=27$. Compared to the Buzzard mocks, the Cardinal mocks include an updated subhalo abundance matching (SHAM) model that considers orphan galaxies and includes mass-dependent scatter between galaxy luminosity and halo properties. This model can simultaneously fit galaxy clustering and group--galaxy cross-correlations measured in three different luminosity threshold samples. The Cardinal mocks also feature a new color assignment model that can simultaneously fit color-dependent galaxy clustering in three different luminosity bins. We have developed an algorithm that uses photometric data to improve the color assignment model further and have also developed a novel method to improve small-scale lensing below the ray-tracing resolution. These improvements enable the Cardinal mocks to accurately reproduce the abundance of galaxy clusters and the properties of lens galaxies in the Dark Energy Survey data. As such, these simulations will be a valuable tool for future cosmological analyses based on large sky surveys. The cardinal mock will be released upon publication at https://chunhaoto.com/cardinalsim., Comment: 37 pages; 20 figures. See figure 1 for summary and appendix K for a list of main differences between Cardinal and Buzzard. To be submitted to APJ; Comments welcome. Highlights can be found at https://chunhaoto.com/cardinalsim

We discuss the potential of the multi-tracer technique to improve observational constraints of the local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) parameter $f_{\rm NL}$ from the galaxy power spectrum. For two galaxy samples $A$ and $B$, the constraining power is $\propto |b_1^B b_\phi^A - b_1^Ab_\phi^B|$, where $b_1$ and $b_\phi$ are the linear and PNG galaxy bias parameters. We show this allows for significantly improved constraints compared to the traditional expectation $\propto |b_1^A - b_1^B|$ based on naive universality-like relations where $b_\phi \propto b_1$. Using IllustrisTNG galaxy simulation data, we find that different equal galaxy number splits of the full sample lead to different $|b_1^B b_\phi^A - b_1^Ab_\phi^B|$, and thus have different constraining power. Of all of the strategies explored, splitting by $g-r$ color is the most promising, more than doubling the significance of detecting $f_{\rm NL}b_\phi \neq 0$. Importantly, since these are constraints on $f_{\rm NL}b_\phi$ and not $f_{\rm NL}$, they do not require priors on the $b_\phi(b_1)$ relation. For direct constraints on $f_{\rm NL}$, we show that multi-tracer constraints can be significantly more robust than single-tracer to $b_\phi$ misspecifications and uncertainties; this relaxes the precision and accuracy requirements for $b_\phi$ priors. Our results present new opportunities to improve our chances to detect and robustly constrain $f_{\rm NL}$, and strongly motivate galaxy formation simulation campaigns to calibrate the $b_\phi(b_1)$ relation., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, 1 table. Comments welcomed! v2 matches version published in JCAP

Early dark energy (EDE) is an extension to the $\Lambda$CDM model, proposed to reduce the tension between the measurements of the Hubble constant $H_0$ from the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and from the local cosmic distance ladder. However, this model increases the $S_8$ tension between CMB and large scale structure measurements. Analyses of galaxy clustering and lensing correlation functions report a decreased preference for EDE and its effect on the Hubble tension. Smooth dark energy models affect growth of structure through the background expansion. In this work, we study the inclusion of a general, smooth late-time dark energy modification in combination with EDE and obtain constraints on EDE marginalized over the late-time expansion. We assess the impact on the $S_8$ and Hubble tensions. In order to generalize the late expansion, we use a late dark energy fluid model with a piecewise constant equation of state $w(z)$ over 3, 5 and 10 redshift bins in the window $z \in [0,3]$. We show that, when analyzing ACT and Planck CMB data combined with Pantheon supernovae, BAO from 6dF, SDSS and BOSS, Planck 2018 CMB lensing and Dark Energy Survey cosmic shear and clustering data, the inclusion of a general smooth dark energy modification at late times has no significant effect on $S_8$ and EDE parameter constraints. Using the aforementioned datasets, the EDE fraction constraint with late-time expansion marginalization is $f_\mathrm{EDE} = 0.067^{+0.019}_{-0.027}$ using 3 redshift bins, with similar results for 5 and 10 redshift bins. This work shows that in order to solve simultaneously the Hubble and $S_8$ tensions, one needs a mechanism for increasing the clustering of matter at late times different from a simple change in the background evolution of late dark energy. [Abridged], Comment: 22 pages, 9 figures

We test the smooth dark energy paradigm using Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 and Year 3 weak lensing and galaxy clustering data. Within the $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM model we separate the expansion and structure growth history by splitting $\Omega_\mathrm{m}$ (and $w$) into two meta-parameters that allow for different evolution of growth and geometry in the Universe. We consider three different combinations of priors on geometry from CMB, SNIa, BAO, BBN that differ in constraining power but have been designed such that the growth information comes solely from the DES weak lensing and galaxy clustering. For the DES-Y1 data we find no detectable tension between growth and geometry meta-parameters in both the $\Lambda$CDM and $w$CDM parameter space. This statement also holds for DES-Y3 cosmic shear and 3x2pt analyses. For the combination of DES-Y3 galaxy-galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering (2x2pt) we measure a tension between our growth and geometry meta-parameters of 2.6$\sigma$ in the $\Lambda$CDM and 4.48$\sigma$ in the $w$CDM model space, respectively. We attribute this tension to residual systematics in the DES-Y3 RedMagic galaxy sample rather than to new physics. We plan to investigate our findings further using alternative lens samples in DES-Y3 and future weak lensing and galaxy clustering datasets., Comment: 19 pages, 14 figures, to be submitted

We explore a re-parameterization of the lensing amplitude tension between weak lensing (WL) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data and its implications for a joint resolution with the Hubble tension. Specifically, we focus on the lensing amplitude over a scale of 12 Mpc in absolute distance units using a derived parameter $S_{12}$ and show its constraints from recent surveys in comparison with Planck 2018. In WL alone, we find that the absolute distance convention correlates $S_{12}$ with $H_0$. Accounting for this correlation in the 3D space $S_{12}\times \omega_m \times h$ reproduces the usual levels of $2\sim 3\sigma$ tension inferred from $S_8\times\Omega_m$. Additionally, we derive scaling relations in the $S_8\times h$ and $S_{12}\times h$ planes that are allowed by $\Lambda$CDM and extrapolate target scalings needed to solve the $H_0$ and lensing-amplitude tensions jointly in a hypothetical beyond-$\Lambda$CDM model. As a test example, we quantify how the early dark energy scenario compares with these target scalings. Useful fitting formulae for $S_8$ and $S_{12}$ as a function of other cosmological parameters in $\Lambda$CDM are provided, with 1% precision., Comment: Matches version published in PRD

The unknown intrinsic shape of source galaxies is one of the largest uncertainties of weak gravitational lensing (WL). It results in the so-called shape noise at the level of $\sigma_\epsilon^{\mathrm{WL}} \approx 0.26$, whereas the shear effect of interest is of order percent. Kinematic lensing (KL) is a new technique that combines photometric shape measurements with resolved spectroscopic observations to infer the intrinsic galaxy shape and directly estimate the gravitational shear. This paper presents a KL inference pipeline that jointly forward-models galaxy imaging and slit spectroscopy to extract the shear signal. We build a set of realistic mock observations and show that the KL inference pipeline can robustly recover the input shear. To quantify the shear measurement uncertainty for KL, we average the shape noise over a population of randomly oriented disc galaxies and estimate it to be $\sigma_\epsilon^{\mathrm{KL}}\approx 0.022-0.041$ depending on emission line signal-to-noise. This order of magnitude improvement over traditional WL makes a KL observational program feasible with existing spectroscopic instruments. To this end, we characterize the dependence of KL shape noise on observational factors and discuss implications for the survey strategy of future KL observations. In particular, we find that prioritizing quality spectra of low inclination galaxies is more advantageous than maximizing the overall number density.

Local primordial non-Gaussianity (PNG) is a promising observable of the underlying physics of inflation, characterised by $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$. We present the methodology to measure $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) data using the 2-point angular correlation function (ACF) with scale-dependent bias. One of the focuses of the work is the integral constraint. This condition appears when estimating the mean number density of galaxies from the data and is key in obtaining unbiased $f_{\rm NL}^{\rm loc}$ constraints. The methods are analysed for two types of simulations: $\sim 246$ GOLIAT-PNG N-body small area simulations with $f_{\rm NL}$ equal to -100 and 100, and 1952 Gaussian ICE-COLA mocks with $f_{\rm NL}=0$ that follow the DES angular and redshift distribution. We use the ensemble of GOLIAT-PNG mocks to show the importance of the integral constraint when measuring PNG, where we recover the fiducial values of $f_{\rm NL}$ within the $1\sigma$ when including the integral constraint. In contrast, we found a bias of $\Delta f_{\rm NL}\sim 100$ when not including it. For a DES-like scenario, we forecast a bias of $\Delta f_{\rm NL} \sim 23$, equivalent to $1.8\sigma$, when not using the IC for a fiducial value of $f_{\rm NL}=100$. We use the ICE-COLA mocks to validate our analysis in a realistic DES-like setup finding it robust to different analysis choices: best-fit estimator, the effect of IC, BAO damping, covariance, and scale choices. We forecast a measurement of $f_{\rm NL}$ within $\sigma(f_{\rm NL})=31$ when using the DES-Y3 BAO sample, with the ACF in the $1\ {\rm deg}<\theta<20\ {\rm deg}$ range., Comment: Version after MNRAS reviewer comments. Improved discussion in Section 7. 16 pages, 11 figures

We extend the modal decomposition method, previously applied to compress the information in the real-space bispectrum, to the anisotropic redshift-space galaxy bispectrum. In the modal method approach, the bispectrum is expanded on a basis of smooth functions of triangles and their orientations, such that a set of modal expansion coefficients can capture the information in the bispectrum. We assume a reference survey and compute Fisher forecasts for the compressed modal bispectrum and two other basis decompositions of the redshift-space bispectrum in the literature, one based on (single) spherical harmonics and another based on tripolar spherical harmonics. In each case, we compare the forecasted constraints from the compressed statistic with forecasted constraints from the full, uncompressed bispectrum which includes all triangles and orientations. Our main result is that all three compression methods achieve good recovery of the full information content of the bispectrum, but the modal decomposition approach achieves this the most efficiently: only 14 (42) modal expansion coefficients are necessary to obtain constraints that are within 10% (2%) of the full bispectrum result. The next most efficient decomposition is the one based on tripolar spherical harmonics, while the spherical harmonic multipoles are the least efficient., Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, 2 tables. To be submitted to MNRAS. Comments welcome

Bayesian posterior inference of modern multi-probe cosmological analyses incurs massive computational costs. For instance, depending on the combinations of probes, a single posterior inference for the Dark Energy Survey (DES) data had a wall-clock time that ranged from 1 to 21 days using a state-of-the-art computing cluster with 100 cores. These computational costs have severe environmental impacts and the long wall-clock time slows scientific productivity. To address these difficulties, we introduce LINNA: the Likelihood Inference Neural Network Accelerator. Relative to the baseline DES analyses, LINNA reduces the computational cost associated with posterior inference by a factor of 8--50. If applied to the first-year cosmological analysis of Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST Y1), we conservatively estimate that LINNA will save more than US $\$300,000$ on energy costs, while simultaneously reducing $\rm{CO}_2$ emission by $2,400$ tons. To accomplish these reductions, LINNA automatically builds training data sets, creates neural network surrogate models, and produces a Markov chain that samples the posterior. We explicitly verify that LINNA accurately reproduces the first-year DES (DES Y1) cosmological constraints derived from a variety of different data vectors with our default code settings, without needing to retune the algorithm every time. Further, we find that LINNA is sufficient for enabling accurate and efficient sampling for LSST Y10 multi-probe analyses. We make LINNA publicly available at https://github.com/chto/linna, to enable others to perform fast and accurate posterior inference in contemporary cosmological analyses., Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures, submitted to JCAP, comments are welcome

Kinematic lensing (KL) is a new cosmological measurement technique that combines traditional weak lensing (WL) shape measurements of disc galaxies with their kinematic information. Using the Tully-Fisher relation KL breaks the degeneracy between intrinsic and observed ellipticity and significantly reduces the impact of multiple systematics that are present in traditional WL. We explore the performance of KL given the instrument capabilities of the $\textit{Roman Space Telescope}$, assuming overlap of the High Latitude Imaging Survey (HLIS), the High Latitude Spectroscopy Survey (HLSS) over 2,000 deg$^2$. Our KL suitable galaxy sample has a number density of $n_{\mathrm{gal}}=4~\mathrm{arcmin}^{-1}$ with an estimated shape noise level of $\sigma_{\epsilon}=0.035$. We quantify the cosmological constraining power on $\Omega_{\mathrm{m}}$-$S_8$, $w_p$-$w_a$ by running simulated likelihood analyses that account for redshift and shear calibration uncertainties, intrinsic alignment and baryonic feedback. Compared to a traditional WL survey we find that KL significantly improves the constraining power on $\Omega_{\mathrm{m}}$-$S_8$ (FoM$_{\mathrm{KL}}$=1.70FoM$_{\mathrm{WL}}$) and $w_p$-$w_a$ (FoM$_{\mathrm{KL}}$=3.65FoM$_{\mathrm{WL}}$). We also explore a "narrow tomography KL survey" using 30 instead of the default 10 tomographic bins, however we find no meaningful enhancement to the FoM even when assuming a significant time-dependence in our fiducial dark energy input scenarios.

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope will conduct a High Latitude Spectroscopic Survey (HLSS) over a large volume at high redshift, using the near-IR grism (1.0-1.93 $\mu$m, $R=435-865$) and the 0.28 deg$^2$ wide field camera. We present a reference HLSS which maps 2000 deg$^2$ and achieves an emission line flux limit of 10$^{-16}$ erg/s/cm$^2$ at 6.5$\sigma$, requiring $\sim$0.6 yrs of observing time. We summarize the flowdown of the Roman science objectives to the science and technical requirements of the HLSS. We construct a mock redshift survey over the full HLSS volume by applying a semi-analytic galaxy formation model to a cosmological N-body simulation, and use this mock survey to create pixel-level simulations of 4 deg$^2$ of HLSS grism spectroscopy. We find that the reference HLSS would measure $\sim$ 10 million H$\alpha$ galaxy redshifts that densely map large scale structure at $z=1-2$ and 2 million [OIII] galaxy redshifts that sparsely map structures at $z=2-3$. We forecast the performance of this survey for measurements of the cosmic expansion history with baryon acoustic oscillations and the growth of large scale structure with redshift space distortions. We also study possible deviations from the reference design, and find that a deep HLSS at $f_{\rm line}>7\times10^{-17}$erg/s/cm$^2$ over 4000 deg$^2$ (requiring $\sim$1.5 yrs of observing time) provides the most compelling stand-alone constraints on dark energy from Roman alone. This provides a useful reference for future optimizations. The reference survey, simulated data sets, and forecasts presented here will inform community decisions on the final scope and design of the Roman HLSS., Comment: 29 pages, 8 figures, ApJ submitted

In the near future, the overlap of the Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) and the Simons Observatory (SO) will present an ideal opportunity for joint cosmological dataset analyses. In this paper we simulate the joint likelihood analysis of these two experiments using six two-point functions derived from galaxy position, galaxy shear, and CMB lensing convergence fields. Our analysis focuses on realistic noise and systematics models and we find that the dark energy Figure-of-Merit (FoM) increases by 53% (92%) from LSST-only to LSST+SO in Year 1 (Year 6). We also investigate the benefits of using the same galaxy sample for both clustering and lensing analyses, and find the choice improves the overall signal-to-noise by ~30-40%, which significantly improves the photo-z calibration and mildly improves the cosmological constraints. Finally, we explore the effects of catastrophic photo-z outliers finding that they cause significant parameter biases when ignored. We develop a new mitigation approach termed "island model", which corrects a large fraction of the biases with only a few parameters while preserving the constraining power., Comment: 16 pages, 9 figures, 4 tables, matching MNRAS accepted version

One of the primary sources of uncertainties in modeling the cosmic-shear power spectrum on small scales is the effect of baryonic physics. Accurate cosmology for Stage-IV surveys requires knowledge of the matter power spectrum deep in the nonlinear regime at the percent level. Therefore, it is important to develop reliable mitigation techniques to take into account baryonic uncertainties if information from small scales is to be considered in the cosmological analysis. In this work, we develop a new mitigation method for dealing with baryonic physics for the case of the shear angular power spectrum. The method is based on an extended covariance matrix that incorporates baryonic uncertainties informed by hydrodynamical simulations. We use the results from 13 hydrodynamical simulations and the residual errors arising from a fit to a $\Lambda$CDM model using the extended halo model code {\tt HMCode} to account for baryonic physics. These residual errors are used to model a so-called theoretical error covariance matrix that is added to the original covariance matrix. In order to assess the performance of the method, we use the 2D tomographic shear from four hydrodynamical simulations that have different extremes of baryonic parameters as mock data and run a likelihood analysis comparing the residual bias on $\Omega_m$ and $\sigma_8$ of our method and the HMCode for an LSST-like survey. We use different modelling of the theoretical error covariance matrix to test the robustness of the method. We show that it is possible to reduce the bias in the determination of the tested cosmological parameters at the price of a modest decrease in the precision., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures

The tightest and most robust cosmological results of the next decade will be achieved by bringing together multiple surveys of the Universe. This endeavor has to happen across multiple layers of the data processing and analysis, e.g., enhancements are expected from combining Euclid, Rubin, and Roman (as well as other surveys) not only at the level of joint processing and catalog combination, but also during the post-catalog parts of the analysis such as the cosmological inference process. While every experiment builds their own analysis and inference framework and creates their own set of simulations, cross-survey work that homogenizes these efforts, exchanges information from numerical simulations, and coordinates details in the modeling of astrophysical and observational systematics of the corresponding datasets is crucial., Comment: Response to the NASA/DOE Request for Information call, focus area 3

Binary supermassive black holes (BSBHs) are expected to be a generic byproduct from hierarchical galaxy formation. The final coalescence of BSBHs is thought to be the loudest gravitational wave (GW) siren, yet no confirmed BSBH is known in the GW-dominated regime. While periodic quasars have been proposed as BSBH candidates, the physical origin of the periodicity has been largely uncertain. Here we report discovery of a periodicity (P=1607$\pm$7 days) at 99.95% significance (with a global p-value of ~$10^{-3}$ accounting for the look elsewhere effect) in the optical light curves of a redshift 1.53 quasar, SDSS J025214.67-002813.7. Combining archival Sloan Digital Sky Survey data with new, sensitive imaging from the Dark Energy Survey, the total ~20-yr time baseline spans ~4.6 cycles of the observed 4.4-yr (restframe 1.7-yr) periodicity. The light curves are best fit by a bursty model predicted by hydrodynamic simulations of circumbinary accretion disks. The periodicity is likely caused by accretion rate modulation by a milli-parsec BSBH emitting GWs, dynamically coupled to the circumbinary accretion disk. A bursty hydrodynamic variability model is statistically preferred over a smooth, sinusoidal model expected from relativistic Doppler boost, a kinematic effect proposed for PG1302-102. Furthermore, the frequency dependence of the variability amplitudes disfavors Doppler boost, lending independent support to the circumbinary accretion variability hypothesis. Given our detection rate of one BSBH candidate from circumbinary accretion variability out of 625 quasars, it suggests that future large, sensitive synoptic surveys such as the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time may be able to detect hundreds to thousands of candidate BSBHs from circumbinary accretion with direct implications for Laser Interferometer Space Antenna., Comment: Accepted to MNRAS, 17 pages, 9 figures

Measurements of large-scale structure are interpreted using theoretical predictions for the matter distribution, including potential impacts of baryonic physics. We constrain the feedback strength of baryons jointly with cosmology using weak lensing and galaxy clustering observables (3$\times$2pt) of Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 data in combination with external information from baryon acoustic oscillations (BAO) and Planck cosmic microwave background polarization. Our baryon modeling is informed by a set of hydrodynamical simulations that span a variety of baryon scenarios; we span this space via a Principal Component (PC) analysis of the summary statistics extracted from these simulations. We show that at the level of DES Y1 constraining power, one PC is sufficient to describe the variation of baryonic effects in the observables, and the first PC amplitude ($Q_1$) generally reflects the strength of baryon feedback. With the upper limit of $Q_1$ prior being bound by the Illustris feedback scenarios, we reach $\sim 20\%$ improvement in the constraint of $S_8=\sigma_8(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}=0.788^{+0.018}_{-0.021}$ compared to the original DES 3$\times$2pt analysis. This gain is driven by the inclusion of small-scale cosmic shear information down to 2.5 arcmin, which was excluded in previous DES analyses that did not model baryonic physics. We obtain $S_8=0.781^{+0.014}_{-0.015}$ for the combined DES Y1+Planck EE+BAO analysis with a non-informative $Q_1$ prior. In terms of the baryon constraints, we measure $Q_1=1.14^{+2.20}_{-2.80}$ for DES Y1 only and $Q_1=1.42^{+1.63}_{-1.48}$ for DESY1+Planck EE+BAO, allowing us to exclude one of the most extreme AGN feedback hydrodynamical scenario at more than $2 \sigma$., Comment: 22 pages, 18 figures, 2 tables. accepted to MNRAS. A brief video summary of this paper is available at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbeNwk5papU

Modern cosmological analyses of galaxy-galaxy lensing face a theoretical systematic effect arising from the non-locality of the observed galaxy-galaxy lensing signal. Because the predicted tangential shear signal at a given separation depends on the physical modeling on all scales internal to that separation, systematic uncertainties in the modeling of non-linear small scales are propagated outwards to larger scales. Even in the absence of other limiting factors, this systematic effect alone can necessitate conservative small-scale cuts, resulting in significant losses of information in the tangential shear data vector. We construct a simple linear transformation of the observable that removes this non-locality, enabling more aggressive small-scale cuts for a given theoretical model. Our modified galaxy-galaxy lensing observable makes it possible to include observations on significantly smaller scales than those under the standard approach in cosmological analyses. More importantly, it ensures that the cosmological signal contained within the observable is exclusively drawn from well-understood physical scales., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures

We simulate the scientific performance of the Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) High Latitude Survey (HLS) on dark energy and modified gravity. The 1.6 year HLS Reference survey is currently envisioned to image 2000 deg$^2$ in multiple bands to a depth of $\sim$26.5 in Y, J, H and to cover the same area with slit-less spectroscopy beyond z=3. The combination of deep, multi-band photometry and deep spectroscopy will allow scientists to measure the growth and geometry of the Universe through a variety of cosmological probes (e.g., weak lensing, galaxy clusters, galaxy clustering, BAO, Type Ia supernova) and, equally, it will allow an exquisite control of observational and astrophysical systematic effects. In this paper we explore multi-probe strategies that can be implemented given WFIRST's instrument capabilities. We model cosmological probes individually and jointly and account for correlated systematics and statistical uncertainties due to the higher order moments of the density field. We explore different levels of observational systematics for the WFIRST survey (photo-z and shear calibration) and ultimately run a joint likelihood analysis in N-dim parameter space. We find that the WFIRST reference survey alone (no external data sets) can achieve a standard dark energy FoM of >300 when including all probes. This assumes no information from external data sets and realistic assumptions for systematics. Our study of the HLS reference survey should be seen as part of a future community driven effort to simulate and optimize the science return of WFIRST., Comment: comments welcome

Accurate covariance matrices for two-point functions are critical for inferring cosmological parameters in likelihood analyses of large-scale structure surveys. Among various approaches to obtaining the covariance, analytic computation is much faster and less noisy than estimation from data or simulations. However, the transform of covariances from Fourier space to real space involves integrals with two Bessel integrals, which are numerically slow and easily affected by numerical uncertainties. Inaccurate covariances may lead to significant errors in the inference of the cosmological parameters. In this paper, we introduce a 2D-FFTLog algorithm for efficient, accurate and numerically stable computation of non-Gaussian real space covariances for both 3D and projected statistics. The 2D-FFTLog algorithm is easily extended to perform real space bin-averaging. We apply the algorithm to the covariances for galaxy clustering and weak lensing for a Dark Energy Survey Year 3-like and a Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time Year 1-like survey, and demonstrate that for both surveys, our algorithm can produce numerically stable angular bin-averaged covariances with the flat sky approximation, which are sufficiently accurate for inferring cosmological parameters. The code CosmoCov for computing the real space covariances with or without the flat sky approximation is released along with this paper., Comment: MNRAS accepted; 13 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables; fixed a typo in Eq.41; 2DFFTLog code available at https://github.com/xfangcosmo/2DFFTLog ; 3x2pt covariance code CosmoCov at https://github.com/CosmoLike/CosmoCov

We explore synergies between the space-based Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) and the ground-based Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST). In particular, we consider a scenario where the currently envisioned survey strategy for WFIRST's High Latitude Survey (HLS), i.e., 2000 square degrees in four narrow photometric bands is altered in favor of a strategy that combines rapid coverage of the LSST area (to full LSST depth) in one band. We find that a 5-month WFIRST survey in the W-band can cover the full LSST survey area providing high-resolution imaging for >95% of the LSST Year 10 gold galaxy sample. We explore a second, more ambitious scenario where WFIRST spends 1.5 years covering the LSST area. For this second scenario we quantify the constraining power on dark energy equation of state parameters from a joint weak lensing and galaxy clustering analysis, and compare it to an LSST-only survey and to the Reference WFIRST HLS survey. Our survey simulations are based on the WFIRST exposure time calculator and redshift distributions from the CANDELS catalog. Our statistical uncertainties account for higher-order correlations of the density field, and we include a wide range of systematic effects, such as uncertainties in shape and redshift measurements, and modeling uncertainties of astrophysical systematics, such as galaxy bias, intrinsic galaxy alignment, and baryonic physics. Assuming the 5-month WFIRST wide scenario, we find a significant increase in constraining power for the joint LSST+WFIRST wide survey compared to LSST Y10 (FoM(Wwide)= 2.4 FoM(LSST)) and compared to LSST+WFIRST HLS (FoM(Wwide)= 5.5 FoM(HLS))., Comment: added references, comments welcome

We report on small-amplitude optical variability and recent dissipation of the unusually persistent broad emission lines in the blue compact dwarf galaxy PHL 293B. The galaxy's unusual spectral features (P Cygni-like profiles with $\sim$800 km s$^{-1}$ blueshifted absorption lines) have resulted in conflicting interpretations of the nature of this source in the literature. However, analysis of new Gemini spectroscopy reveals the broad emission has begun to fade after being persistent for over a decade prior. Precise difference imaging light curves constructed with the Sloan Digital Sky Survey and the Dark Energy Survey reveal small-amplitude optical variability of $\sim$0.1 mag in the g band offset by $100\pm21$ pc from the brightest pixel of the host. The light curve is well-described by an active galactic nuclei (AGN)-like damped random walk process. However, we conclude that the origin of the optical variability and spectral features of PHL 293B is due to a long-lived stellar transient, likely a Type IIn supernova or non-terminal outburst, mimicking long-term AGN-like variability. This work highlights the challenges of discriminating between scenarios in such extreme environments, relevant to searches for AGNs in dwarf galaxies. This is the second long-lived transient discovered in a blue compact dwarf, after SDSS1133. Our result implies such long-lived stellar transients may be more common in metal-deficient galaxies. Systematic searches for low-level variability in dwarf galaxies will be possible with the upcoming Legacy Survey of Space and Time at Vera C. Rubin Observatory., Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, 1 table. Accepted for publication in ApJ Letters

We perform a joint analysis of the counts and weak lensing signal of redMaPPer clusters selected from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 1 dataset. Our analysis uses the same shear and source photometric redshifts estimates as were used in the DES combined probes analysis. Our analysis results in surprisingly low values for $S_8 =\sigma_8(\Omega_{\rm m}/0.3)^{0.5}= 0.65\pm 0.04$, driven by a low matter density parameter, $\Omega_{\rm m}=0.179^{+0.031}_{-0.038}$, with $\sigma_8-\Omega_{\rm m}$ posteriors in $2.4\sigma$ tension with the DES Y1 3x2pt results, and in $5.6\sigma$ with the Planck CMB analysis. These results include the impact of post-unblinding changes to the analysis, which did not improve the level of consistency with other data sets compared to the results obtained at the unblinding. The fact that multiple cosmological probes (supernovae, baryon acoustic oscillations, cosmic shear, galaxy clustering and CMB anisotropies), and other galaxy cluster analyses all favor significantly higher matter densities suggests the presence of systematic errors in the data or an incomplete modeling of the relevant physics. Cross checks with X-ray and microwave data, as well as independent constraints on the observable--mass relation from SZ selected clusters, suggest that the discrepancy resides in our modeling of the weak lensing signal rather than the cluster abundance. Repeating our analysis using a higher richness threshold ($\lambda \ge 30$) significantly reduces the tension with other probes, and points to one or more richness-dependent effects not captured by our model., Comment: 35 pages, 20 figures, submitted to Physical Review D

Angular two-point statistics of large-scale structure observables are important cosmological probes. To reach the high accuracy required by the statistical precision of future surveys, some of these statistics may need to be computed without the commonly employed Limber approximation; the exact computation however requires integration over Bessel functions, and a brute-force evaluation is slow to converge. We present a new method based on our generalized FFTLog algorithm for the efficient computation of angular power spectra beyond the Limber approximation. The new method significantly simplifies the calculation and improves the numerical speed and stability. It is easily extended to handle integrals involving derivatives of Bessel functions, making it equally applicable to numerically more challenging cases such as contributions from redshift-space distortions and Doppler effects. We implement our method for galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing power spectra. We find that using the Limber approximation for galaxy clustering in future analyses like LSST Year 1 and DES Year 6 may cause significant biases in cosmological parameters, indicating that going beyond the Limber approximation is necessary for these analyses., Comment: match JCAP accepted version; 23 pages + 2 appendices, 8 figures, Code available at https://github.com/xfangcosmo/FFTLog-and-beyond

We present new Gemini/GMOS optical spectroscopy of 16 extreme variability quasars (EVQs) that dimmed by more than 1.5 mag in the $g$ band between the Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) and the Dark Energy Survey (DES) epochs (separated by a few years in the quasar rest frame). The quasar sample covers a redshift range of $0.5 < z < 2.1$. Nearly half of these EVQs brightened significantly (by more than 0.5 mag in the $g$ band) in a few years after reaching their previous faintest state, and some EVQs showed rapid (non-blazar) variations of greater than 1-2 mag on timescales of only months. Leveraging on the large dynamic range in continuum variability between the earlier SDSS and the new GMOS spectra, we explore the associated variations in the broad Mg II,$\lambda2798$ line, whose variability properties have not been well studied before. The broad Mg II flux varies in the same direction as the continuum flux, albeit with a smaller amplitude, which indicates at least some portion of Mg II is reverberating to continuum changes. However, the width (FWHM) of Mg II does not vary accordingly as continuum changes for most objects in the sample, in contrast to the case of the broad Balmer lines. Using the width of broad Mg II to estimate the black hole mass therefore introduces a luminosity-dependent bias., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS

The expansion of the Universe is understood to have accelerated during two epochs: in its very first moments during a period of Inflation and much more recently, at $z < 1$, when Dark Energy is hypothesized to drive cosmic acceleration. The undiscovered mechanisms behind these two epochs represent some of the most important open problems in fundamental physics. The large cosmological volume at $2 < z < 5$, together with the ability to efficiently target high-$z$ galaxies with known techniques, enables large gains in the study of Inflation and Dark Energy. A future spectroscopic survey can test the Gaussianity of the initial conditions up to a factor of ~50 better than our current bounds, crossing the crucial theoretical threshold of $\sigma(f_{NL}^{\rm local})$ of order unity that separates single field and multi-field models. Simultaneously, it can measure the fraction of Dark Energy at the percent level up to $z = 5$, thus serving as an unprecedented test of the standard model and opening up a tremendous discovery space., Comment: Science white paper submitted to the Astro2020 Decadal Survey

The tangential shear signal receives contributions from physical scales in the galaxy-matter correlation function well below the transverse scale at which it is measured. Since small scales are difficult to model, this non-locality has generally required stringent scale cuts or new statistics for cosmological analyses. Using the fact that uncertainty in these contributions corresponds to an uncertainty in the enclosed projected mass around the lens, we provide an analytic marginalization scheme to account for this. Our approach enables the inclusion of measurements on smaller scales without requiring numerical sampling over extra free parameters. We extend the analytic marginalization formalism to retain cosmographic ("shear-ratio") information from small-scale measurements that would otherwise be removed due to modeling uncertainties, again without requiring the addition of extra sampling parameters. We test the methodology using simulated likelihood analysis of a DES Year 5-like galaxy-galaxy lensing and galaxy clustering datavector. We demonstrate that we can remove parameter biases due to the presence of an un-modeled 1-halo contamination of the galaxy-galaxy lensing signal, and use the shear-ratio information on small scales to improve cosmological parameter constraints., Comment: 10 pages, 5 figure, submitted to MNRAS. Comments welcome