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1. Genomic and epidemiological monitoring of yellow fever virus transmission potential

Author: Faria, NR, Kraemer, MUG, Hill, SC, Goes de Jesus, J, Aguiar, RS, Iani, FCM, Xavier, J, Quick, J, du Plessis, L, Dellicour, S, Thézé, J, Carvalho, RDO, Baele, G, Wu, C-H, Silveira, PP, Arruda, MB, Pereira, MA, Pereira, GC, Lourenço, J, Obolski, U, Abade, L, Vasylyeva, TI, Giovanetti, M, Yi, D, Weiss, DJ, Wint, GRW, Shearer, FM, Funk, S, Nikolay, B, Fonseca, V, Adelino, TER, Oliveira, MAA, Silva, MVF, Sacchetto, L, Figueiredo, PO, Rezende, IM, Mello, EM, Said, RFC, Santos, DA, Ferraz, ML, Brito, MG, Santana, LF, Menezes, MT, Brindeiro, RM, Tanuri, A, Dos Santos, FCP, Cunha, MS, Nogueira, JS, Rocco, IM, da Costa, AC, Komninakis, SCV, Azevedo, V, Chieppe, AO, Araujo, ESM, Mendonça, MCL, Dos Santos, CC, Dos Santos, CD, Mares-Guia, AM, Nogueira, RMR, Sequeira, PC, Abreu, RG, Garcia, MHO, Abreu, AL, Okumoto, O, Kroon, EG, de Albuquerque, CFC, Lewandowski, K, Pullan, ST, Carroll, M, de Oliveira, T, Sabino, EC, Souza, RP, Suchard, MA, Lemey, P, Trindade, GS, Drumond, BP, Filippis, AMB, Loman, NJ, Cauchemez, S, Alcantara, LCJ, and Pybus, OG
Subjects: Prevention, Genetics, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Rare Diseases, Infectious Diseases, Vaccine Related, Biodefense, Aetiology, 2.2 Factors relating to the physical environment, Infection, Aedes, Age Factors, Animals, Brazil, Disease Outbreaks, Epidemiological Monitoring, Evolution, Molecular, Genomics, Humans, Phylogeny, Polymerase Chain Reaction, Risk, Sex Factors, Spatio-Temporal Analysis, Yellow Fever, Yellow fever virus, General Science & Technology
Abstract: The yellow fever virus (YFV) epidemic in Brazil is the largest in decades. The recent discovery of YFV in Brazilian Aedes species mosquitos highlights a need to monitor the risk of reestablishment of urban YFV transmission in the Americas. We use a suite of epidemiological, spatial, and genomic approaches to characterize YFV transmission. We show that the age and sex distribution of human cases is characteristic of sylvatic transmission. Analysis of YFV cases combined with genomes generated locally reveals an early phase of sylvatic YFV transmission and spatial expansion toward previously YFV-free areas, followed by a rise in viral spillover to humans in late 2016. Our results establish a framework for monitoring YFV transmission in real time that will contribute to a global strategy to eliminate future YFV epidemics.
Published: 2018

2. Lessons from COVID-19 for rescalable data collection

Author: Bhatia, S, Imai, N, Watson, OJ, Abbood, A, Abdelmalik, P, Cornelissen, T, Ghozzi, S, Lassmann, B, Nagesh, R, Ragonnet-Cronin, ML, Schnitzler, JC, Kraemer, MUG, Cauchemez, S, Nouvellet, P, and Cori, A
Subjects: Infectious Diseases
Abstract: Novel data and analyses have played an important role in informing the public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Existing surveillance systems were scaled up, and in some instances, new systems developed to meet the challenges posed by the magnitude of the pandemic. Here, we describe the routine and novel data that were used to address urgent public health questions during the pandemic, underscore challenges in sustainability and equity in data generation, and highlight key lessons learnt for designing scalable data collection systems to support decision-making during a public health crisis. As countries emerge from the acute phase of the pandemic, COVID-19 surveillance systems are being scaled down. However, as SARS-CoV-2 resurgence remains a threat to global health security, it is important that a minimal cost-effective system remains active that can be rapidly scaled up if necessary. We propose that a retrospective evaluation to identify the cost- benefit profile of the various data streams collected during the pandemic should be on the scientific research agenda.
Published: 2023

3. Global disparities in SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance

Author: Brito, AF, Semonva, E, Dudas, G, Hassler, GW, Kalinich, CC, Kraemer, MUG, Ho, J, Houriyah, T, Githinji, G, Agoti, CN, Matkin, LE, Whittaker, C, Bulgarian SARS-CoV-2 sequencing group, Communicable Diseases Genomics Network (Australia and New Zealand), COVID-19 Impact Project, Danish Covid-19 Genome Consortium, Fiocruz COVID-19 Genomic Surveillance Network, GISAID core curation team, Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA), Swiss SARS-CoV-2 Sequencing Consortium, Howden, BP, Sintchenko, V, Zuckerman, NS, Mor, O, Blankenship, HM, De Oliveira, T, Lin, RTP, Siqueira, MM, Resende, PC, Vasconcelos, TR, Spilki, FR, Aguiar, RS, Alexiev, I, Ivanov, IN, Philipova, I, Carrington, CVF, Sahadeo, NSD, Branda, B, Gurry, C, Maurer-Stroh, S, Naidoo, D, Von Eije, KJ, Perkins, MD, Von Kerkhove, M, Hill, SC, Sabino, EC, Pybus, OG, Dye, C, Bhatt, S, Flaxman, S, Suchard, MA, Grubaugh, ND, Baele, G, Faria, NM, Medical Research Council-São Paulo Research Foundation (FAPESP), Wellcome Trust, and Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
Subjects: Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa, Communicable Diseases Genomics Network (Australia and New Zealand), Communicable Diseases Genomics Network, Fiocruz COVID-19 Genomic Surveillance Network, Vaccine Related, Biodefense, Genetics, Humans, Danish Covid-19 Genome Consortium, Viral, Pandemics, Swiss SARS-CoV-2 Sequencing Consortium, Genome, Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA), SARS-CoV-2, Prevention, Human Genome, COVID-19, Genomics, Bulgarian SARS-CoV-2 sequencing group, GISAID core curation team, Emerging Infectious Diseases, Good Health and Well Being, COVID-19 Impact Project, Immunization, Infection
Abstract: Genomic sequencing is essential to track the evolution and spread of SARS-CoV-2, optimize molecular tests, treatments, vaccines, and guide public health responses. To investigate the global SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance, we used sequences shared via GISAID to estimate the impact of sequencing intensity and turnaround times on variant detection in 189 countries. In the first two years of the pandemic, 78% of high-income countries sequenced >0.5% of their COVID-19 cases, while 42% of low- and middle-income countries reached that mark. Around 25% of the genomes from high income countries were submitted within 21 days, a pattern observed in 5% of the genomes from low- and middle-income countries. We found that sequencing around 0.5% of the cases, with a turnaround time
Published: 2022

4. SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from September to November 2021: high diversity of Delta sub-lineages and increased transmissibility of AY.4.2

Author: Eales, O, Page, AJ, de Oliveira Martins, L, Wang, H, Bodinier, B, Haw, D, Jonnerby, J, Atchison, C, Robson, SC, Connor, TR, Loman, NJ, Golubchik, T, Nunez, RTM, Bonsall, D, Rambaut, A, Snell, LB, Livett, R, Ludden, C, Corden, S, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Johnston, I, Lythgoe, K, Torok, ME, Goodfellow, IG, Prieto, JA, Saeed, K, Jackson, DK, Houlihan, C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Thomson, EC, Harrison, EM, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, P, Jackson, LM, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Amato, R, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Barrett, JC, Aggarwal, D, Shepherd, JG, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Carabelli, AM, Templeton, KE, de Silva, TI, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Sillitoe, J, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O’Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, D, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Holden, MTG, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, S, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, D, Robertson, DL, Martincorena, I, Aigrain, L, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Chapman, MHS, Dewar, R, McHugh, MP, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, C, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Harvey, WT, Hughes, J, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O’Toole, Á, Gourtovaia, M, Sanderson, T, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, J, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Peacock, SJ, Heyburn, D, Kitchman, K, McNally, A, Pritchard, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Weldon, D, Catalan, J, Jones, N, da Silva Filipe, A, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Oliver, K, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, A, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Randell, PA, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, Swindells, E, Turnbull, R, Sloan, TJ, Bosworth, A, Hutchings, S, Pymont, HM, Casey, A, Ratcliffe, L, Jones, CR, Knight, BA, Haque, T, Hart, J, Irish-Tavares, D, Witele, E, Mower, C, Watson, LK, Collins, J, Eltringham, G, Crudgington, D, Macklin, B, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Lucaci, AO, McClure, PC, Carlile, M, Holmes, N, Storey, N, Rooke, S, Yebra, G, Craine, N, Perry, M, Alikhan, N - F, Bridgett, S, Cook, KF, Fearn, C, Goudarzi, S, Lyons, RA, Williams, T, Haldenby, ST, Durham, J, Leonard, S, Davies, RM, Batra, R, Blane, B, Spyer, MJ, Smith, P, Yavus, M, Williams, RJ, Mahanama, AIK, Samaraweera, B, Girgis, ST, Hansford, SE, Green, A, Beaver, C, Bellis, KL, Dorman, MJ, Kay, S, Prestwood, L, Rajatileka, S, Quick, J, Poplawski, R, Reynolds, N, Mack, A, Morriss, A, Whalley, T, Patel, B, Georgana, I, Hosmillo, M, Pinckert, ML, Stockton, J, Henderson, JH, Hollis, A, Stanley, W, Yew, WC, Myers, R, Thornton, A, Adams, A, Annett, T, Asad, H, Birchley, A, Coombes, J, Evans, JM, Fina, L, Gatica-Wilcox, B, Gilbert, L, Graham, L, Hey, J, Hilvers, E, Jones, S, Jones, H, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Taylor, S, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Goldstein, EJ, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Pascall, D, Vattipally, S, Freeman, TM, Hsu, SN, Lindsey, BB, James, K, Lewis, K, Tonkin-Hill, G, Tovar-Corona, JM, Cox, MG, Abudahab, K, Menegazzo, M, MEng, BEWT, Yeats, CA, Mukaddas, A, Wright, DW, Colquhoun, R, Hill, V, Jackson, B, McCrone, JT, Medd, N, Scher, E, Keatley, J - P, Curran, T, Morgan, S, Maxwell, P, Smith, K, Eldirdiri, S, Kenyon, A, Holmes, AH, Price, JR, Wyatt, T, Mather, AE, Skvortsov, T, Hartley, JA, Guest, M, Kitchen, C, Merrick, I, Munn, R, Bertolusso, B, Lynch, J, Vernet, G, Kirk, S, Wastnedge, E, Stanley, R, Idle, G, Bradley, DT, Poyner, J, Mori, M, Jones, O, Wright, V, Brooks, E, Churcher, CM, Fragakis, M, Galai, K, Jermy, A, Judges, S, McManus, GM, Smith, KS, Westwick, E, Attwood, SW, Bolt, F, Davies, A, De Lacy, E, Downing, F, Edwards, S, Meadows, L, Jeremiah, S, Smith, N, Foulser, L, Charalampous, T, Patel, A, Berry, L, Boswell, T, Fleming, VM, Howson-Wells, HC, Joseph, A, Khakh, M, Lister, MM, Bird, PW, Fallon, K, Helmer, T, McMurray, CL, Odedra, M, Shaw, J, Tang, JW, Willford, NJ, Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, L - A, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Alcolea-Medina, A, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, Bouzidi, KE, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Blacow, R, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, C, Chalker, V, Harrison, I, Gifford, L, Molnar, Z, Auckland, C, Evans, C, Johnson, K, Partridge, DG, Raza, M, Baker, P, Bonner, S, Essex, S, Murray, LJ, Lawton, AI, Burton-Fanning, S, Payne, BAI, Waugh, S, Gomes, AN, Kimuli, M, Murray, DR, Ashfield, P, Dobie, D, Ashford, F, Best, A, Crawford, L, Cumley, N, Mayhew, M, Megram, O, Mirza, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Percival, B, Driscoll, M, Ensell, L, Lowe, HL, Maftei, L, Mondani, M, Chaloner, NJ, Cogger, BJ, Easton, LJ, Huckson, H, Lewis, J, Lowdon, S, Malone, CS, Munemo, F, Mutingwende, M, Nicodemi, R, Podplomyk, O, Somassa, T, Beggs, A, Richter, A, Cormie, C, Dias, J, Forrest, S, Higginson, EE, Maes, M, Young, J, Davidson, RK, Jackson, KA, Turtle, L, Keeley, AJ, Ball, J, Byaruhanga, T, Chappell, JG, Dey, J, Hill, JD, Park, EJ, Fanaie, A, Hilson, RA, Yaze, G, Lo, S, Afifi, S, Beer, R, Maksimovic, J, McCluggage, K, Spellman, K, Bresner, C, Fuller, W, Marchbank, A, Workman, T, Shelest, E, Debebe, J, Sang, F, Zamudio, ME, Francois, S, Gutierrez, B, Vasylyeva, TI, Flaviani, F, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Smollett, KL, Broos, A, Mair, D, Nichols, J, Nomikou, K, Tong, L, Tsatsani, I, O’Brien, PS, Rushton, S, Sanderson, R, Perkins, J, Cotton, S, Gallagher, A, Allara, E, Pearson, C, Bibby, D, Dabrera, G, Ellaby, N, Gallagher, E, Hubb, J, Lackenby, A, Lee, D, Manesis, N, Mbisa, T, Platt, S, Twohig, KA, Morgan, M, Aydin, A, Baker, DJ, Foster-Nyarko, E, Prosolek, SJ, Rudder, S, Baxter, C, Carvalho, SF, Lavin, D, Mariappan, A, Radulescu, C, Singh, A, Tang, M, Morcrette, H, Bayzid, N, Cotic, M, Balcazar, CE, Gallagher, MD, Maloney, D, Stanton, TD, Williamson, KA, Manley, R, Michelsen, ML, Sambles, CM, Studholme, DJ, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Eccles, R, Gemmell, M, Gregory, R, Hughes, M, Nelson, C, Rainbow, L, Vamos, EE, Webster, HJ, Whitehead, M, Wierzbicki, C, Angyal, A, Green, LR, Whiteley, M, Betteridge, E, Bronner, IF, Farr, BW, Goodwin, S, Lensing, SV, McCarthy, SA, Quail, MA, Rajan, D, Redshaw, NM, Scott, C, Shirley, L, Thurston, SAJ, Rowe, W, Gaskin, A, Le-Viet, T, Bonfield, J, Liddle, J, Whitwham, A, Ashby, D, Barclay, W, Taylor, G, Cooke, G, Ward, H, Darzi, A, Riley, S, Chadeau-Hyam, M, Donnelly, CA, Elliott, P, The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Department of Health, Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust- BRC Funding, Medical Research Council (MRC), Cancer Research UK, Commission of the European Communities, Wellcome Trust, National Institute for Health Research, and Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust: Research Capability Funding (RCF)
Subjects: Delta variant, Science & Technology, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, 1103 Clinical Sciences, C500, Microbiology, Genetic diversity, B900, Infectious Diseases, England, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, 1108 Medical Microbiology, Mutation, Humans, Transmission advantage, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Phylogeny, 0605 Microbiology
Abstract: Background Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, evolutionary pressure has driven large increases in the transmissibility of the virus. However, with increasing levels of immunity through vaccination and natural infection the evolutionary pressure will switch towards immune escape. Genomic surveillance in regions of high immunity is crucial in detecting emerging variants that can more successfully navigate the immune landscape. Methods We present phylogenetic relationships and lineage dynamics within England (a country with high levels of immunity), as inferred from a random community sample of individuals who provided a self-administered throat and nose swab for rt-PCR testing as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. During round 14 (9 September–27 September 2021) and 15 (19 October–5 November 2021) lineages were determined for 1322 positive individuals, with 27.1% of those which reported their symptom status reporting no symptoms in the previous month. Results We identified 44 unique lineages, all of which were Delta or Delta sub-lineages, and found a reduction in their mutation rate over the study period. The proportion of the Delta sub-lineage AY.4.2 was increasing, with a reproduction number 15% (95% CI 8–23%) greater than the most prevalent lineage, AY.4. Further, AY.4.2 was less associated with the most predictive COVID-19 symptoms (p = 0.029) and had a reduced mutation rate (p = 0.050). Both AY.4.2 and AY.4 were found to be geographically clustered in September but this was no longer the case by late October/early November, with only the lineage AY.6 exhibiting clustering towards the South of England. Conclusions As SARS-CoV-2 moves towards endemicity and new variants emerge, genomic data obtained from random community samples can augment routine surveillance data without the potential biases introduced due to higher sampling rates of symptomatic individuals.
Published: 2022

5. An international observational study to assess the impact of the Omicron variant emergence on the clinical epidemiology of COVID-19 in hospitalised patients.

Author: Gonçalves, BP, Hall, M, Jassat, W, Balan, V, Murthy, S, Kartsonaki, C, Semple, MG, Rojek, A, Baruch, J, Reyes, LF, Dasgupta, A, Dunning, J, Citarella, BW, Pritchard, M, Martín-Quiros, A, Sili, U, Baillie, JK, Aryal, D, Arabi, Y, Rashan, A, Angheben, A, Caoili, J, Carrier, FM, Harrison, EM, Gómez-Junyent, J, Figueiredo-Mello, C, Douglas, JJ, Mat Nor, MB, Chow, YP, Wong, XC, Bertagnolio, S, Thwin, SS, Streinu-Cercel, A, Salazar, L, Rishu, A, Rangappa, R, Ong, DSY, Hashmi, M, Carson, G, Diaz, J, Fowler, R, Kraemer, MUG, Wils, E-J, Horby, P, Merson, L, Olliaro, PL, ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Group, Gonçalves, BP, Hall, M, Jassat, W, Balan, V, Murthy, S, Kartsonaki, C, Semple, MG, Rojek, A, Baruch, J, Reyes, LF, Dasgupta, A, Dunning, J, Citarella, BW, Pritchard, M, Martín-Quiros, A, Sili, U, Baillie, JK, Aryal, D, Arabi, Y, Rashan, A, Angheben, A, Caoili, J, Carrier, FM, Harrison, EM, Gómez-Junyent, J, Figueiredo-Mello, C, Douglas, JJ, Mat Nor, MB, Chow, YP, Wong, XC, Bertagnolio, S, Thwin, SS, Streinu-Cercel, A, Salazar, L, Rishu, A, Rangappa, R, Ong, DSY, Hashmi, M, Carson, G, Diaz, J, Fowler, R, Kraemer, MUG, Wils, E-J, Horby, P, Merson, L, Olliaro, PL, and ISARIC Clinical Characterisation Group
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Whilst timely clinical characterisation of infections caused by novel SARS-CoV-2 variants is necessary for evidence-based policy response, individual-level data on infecting variants are typically only available for a minority of patients and settings. METHODS: Here, we propose an innovative approach to study changes in COVID-19 hospital presentation and outcomes after the Omicron variant emergence using publicly available population-level data on variant relative frequency to infer SARS-CoV-2 variants likely responsible for clinical cases. We apply this method to data collected by a large international clinical consortium before and after the emergence of the Omicron variant in different countries. RESULTS: Our analysis, that includes more than 100,000 patients from 28 countries, suggests that in many settings patients hospitalised with Omicron variant infection less often presented with commonly reported symptoms compared to patients infected with pre-Omicron variants. Patients with COVID-19 admitted to hospital after Omicron variant emergence had lower mortality compared to patients admitted during the period when Omicron variant was responsible for only a minority of infections (odds ratio in a mixed-effects logistic regression adjusted for likely confounders, 0.67 [95% confidence interval 0.61-0.75]). Qualitatively similar findings were observed in sensitivity analyses with different assumptions on population-level Omicron variant relative frequencies, and in analyses using available individual-level data on infecting variant for a subset of the study population. CONCLUSIONS: Although clinical studies with matching viral genomic information should remain a priority, our approach combining publicly available data on variant frequency and a multi-country clinical characterisation dataset with more than 100,000 records allowed analysis of data from a wide range of settings and novel insights on real-world heterogeneity of COVID-19 presentation and clin
Published: 2022

6. Genomic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England

Author: Vöhringer, HS, Sanderson, T, Sinnott, M, De Maio, N, Nguyen, T, Goater, R, Schwach, F, Harrison, I, Hellewell, J, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Jackson, DK, Johnston, I, Jung, AW, Saint, C, Sillitoe, J, Suciu, M, Goldman, N, Panovska-Griffiths, J, Abnizova, I, Aigrain, L, Alderton, A, Ali, M, Allen, L, Amato, R, Anderson, R, Ariani, C, Austin-Guest, S, Bala, S, Barrett, J, Bassett, A, Battleday, K, Beal, J, Beale, M, Beaver, C, Bellany, S, Bellerby, T, Bellis, K, Berger, D, Berriman, M, Betteridge, E, Bevan, P, Binley, S, Bishop, J, Blackburn, K, Bonfield, J, Boughton, N, Bowker, S, Brendler-Spaeth, T, Bronner, I, Brooklyn, T, Buddenborg, SK, Bush, R, Caetano, C, Cagan, A, Carter, N, Cartwright, J, Monteiro, TC, Chapman, L, Chillingworth, T-J, Clapham, P, Clark, R, Clarke, A, Clarke, C, Cole, D, Cook, E, Coppola, M, Cornell, L, Cornwell, C, Corton, C, Crackett, A, Cranage, A, Craven, H, Craw, S, Crawford, M, Cutts, T, Dabrowska, M, Davies, M, Davies, R, Dawson, J, Day, C, Densem, A, Dibling, T, Dockree, C, Dodd, D, Dogga, S, Dorman, M, Dougan, G, Dougherty, M, Dove, A, Drummond, L, Drury, E, Dudek, M, Durham, J, Durrant, L, Easthope, E, Eckert, S, Ellis, P, Farr, B, Fenton, M, Ferrero, M, Flack, N, Fordham, H, Forsythe, G, Foulser, L, Francis, M, Fraser, A, Freeman, A, Galvin, A, Garcia-Casado, M, Gedny, A, Girgis, S, Glover, J, Goncalves, S, Goodwin, S, Gould, O, Gourtovaia, M, Gray, A, Gray, E, Griffiths, C, Gu, Y, Guerin, F, Hamilton, W, Hanks, H, Harrison, E, Harrott, A, Harry, E, Harvison, J, Heath, P, Hernandez-Koutoucheva, A, Hobbs, R, Holland, D, Holmes, S, Hornett, G, Hough, N, Huckle, L, Hughes-Hallet, L, Hunter, A, Inglis, S, Iqbal, S, Jackson, A, Jackson, D, James, K, Jamrozy, D, Verdejo, CJ, Jones, M, Kallepally, K, Kane, L, Kay, K, Kay, S, Keatley, J, Keith, A, King, A, Kitchin, L, Kleanthous, M, Klimekova, M, Korlevic, P, Krasheninnkova, K, Lane, G, Langford, C, Laverack, A, Law, K, Lawniczak, M, Lensing, S, Leonard, S, Letchford, L, Lewis, K, Lewis-Wade, A, Liddle, J, Lin, Q, Lindsay, S, Linsdell, S, Livett, R, Lo, S, Long, R, Lovell, J, Ludden, C, Mack, J, Maddison, M, Makunin, A, Mamun, I, Mansfield, J, Marriott, N, Martin, M, Mayho, M, McCarthy, S, McClintock, J, McGuigan, S, McHugh, S, McMinn, L, Meadows, C, Mobley, E, Moll, R, Morra, M, Morrow, L, Murie, K, Nash, S, Nathwani, C, Naydenova, P, Neaverson, A, Nelson, R, Nerou, E, Nicholson, J, Nimz, T, Noell, GG, O’Meara, S, Ohan, V, Oliver, K, Olney, C, Ormond, D, Oszlanczi, A, Palmer, S, Pang, YF, Pardubska, B, Park, N, Parmar, A, Patel, G, Patel, M, Payne, M, Peacock, S, Petersen, A, Plowman, D, Preston, T, Prestwood, L, Puethe, C, Quail, M, Rajan, D, Rajatileka, S, Rance, R, Rawlings, S, Redshaw, N, Reynolds, J, Reynolds, M, Rice, S, Richardson, M, Roberts, C, Robinson, K, Robinson, M, Robinson, D, Rogers, H, Rojo, EM, Roopra, D, Rose, M, Rudd, L, Sadri, R, Salmon, N, Saul, D, Scott, C, Seekings, P, Shirley, L, Simms, A, Sivadasan, S, Siwek, B, Sizer, D, Skeldon, K, 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Gerstung, M
Abstract: The evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus leads to new variants that warrant timely epidemiological characterization. Here we use the dense genomic surveillance data generated by the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium to reconstruct the dynamics of 71 different lineages in each of 315 English local authorities between September 2020 and June 2021. This analysis reveals a series of subepidemics that peaked in early autumn 2020, followed by a jump in transmissibility of the B.1.1.7/Alpha lineage. The Alpha variant grew when other lineages declined during the second national lockdown and regionally tiered restrictions between November and December 2020. A third more stringent national lockdown suppressed the Alpha variant and eliminated nearly all other lineages in early 2021. Yet a series of variants (most of which contained the spike E484K mutation) defied these trends and persisted at moderately increasing proportions. However, by accounting for sustained introductions, we found that the transmissibility of these variants is unlikely to have exceeded the transmissibility of the Alpha variant. Finally, B.1.617.2/Delta was repeatedly introduced in England and grew rapidly in early summer 2021, constituting approximately 98% of sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes on 26 June 2021.
Published: 2021

7. Mapping routine measles vaccination in low- and middle-income countries

Author: Sbarra, AN, Rolfe, S, Nguyen, JQ, Earl, L, Galles, NC, Marks, A, Abbas, KM, Abbasi-Kangevari, M, Abbastabar, H, Abd-Allah, F, Abdelalim, A, Abdollahi, M, Abegaz, KH, Abiy, HAA, Abolhassani, H, Abreu, LG, Abrigo, MRM, Abushouk, AI, Accrombessi, MMK, Adabi, M, Adebayo, OM, Adekanmbi, V, Adetokunboh, OO, Adham, D, Afarideh, M, Aghaali, M, Ahmad, T, Ahmadi, R, Ahmadi, K, Ahmed, MB, Alanezi, FM, Alanzi, TM, Alcalde-Rabanal, JE, Alemnew, BT, Ali, BA, Ali, M, Alijanzadeh, M, Alinia, C, Alipoor, R, Alipour, V, Alizade, H, Aljunid, SM, Almasi, A, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Al-Mekhlafi, HM, Altirkawi, KA, Amare, B, Amini, S, Amini-Rarani, M, Amiri, F, Amit, AML, Amugsi, DA, Ancuceanu, R, Andrei, CL, Anjomshoa, M, Ansari, F, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Ansha, MG, Antonio, CAT, Antriyandarti, E, Anvari, D, Arabloo, J, Arab-Zozani, M, Aremu, O, Armoon, B, Aryal, KK, Arzani, A, Asadi-Aliabadi, M, Asgari, S, Atafar, Z, Ausloos, M, Awoke, N, Quintanilla, BPA, Ayanore, MA, Aynalem, YA, Azadmehr, A, Azari, S, Babaee, E, Badawi, A, Badiye, AD, Bahrami, MA, Baig, AA, Bakhtiari, A, Balakrishnan, S, Banach, M, Banik, PC, Barac, A, Baradaran-Seyed, Z, Baraki, AG, Basu, S, Bayati, M, Bayou, YT, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Bell, ML, Berbada, DA, Berhe, K, Bhattarai, S, Bhutta, ZA, Bijani, A, Birhanu, M, Bisanzio, D, Biswas, A, Bohlouli, S, Bolla, SR, Borzouei, S, Brady, OJ, Bragazzi, NL, Briko, AN, Briko, NI, Nagaraja, SB, Butt, ZA, Cámera, LA, Campos-Nonato, IR, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castro, F, Chattu, VK, Chehrazi, M, Chin, KL, Chu, D-T, Cook, AJ, Cormier, NM, Cunningham, B, Dahlawi, SMA, Damiani, G, Dandona, R, Dandona, L, Danovaro, MC, Dansereau, E, Daoud, F, Darwesh, AM, Darwish, AH, Das, JK, Weaver, ND, De Neve, J-W, Demeke, FM, Demis, AB, Denova-Gutiérrez, E, Desalew, A, Deshpande, A, Desta, DM, Dharmaratne, SD, Dhungana, GP, Dianatinasab, M, Diaz, D, Dipeolu, IO, Djalalinia, S, Do, HT, Dorostkar, F, Doshmangir, L, Doyle, KE, Dunachie, SJ, Duraes, AR, Kalan, 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Mohebi, F, Mokdad, AH, Monasta, L, Moosavi, MA, Moosazadeh, M, Moradi, G, Moradi, M, Moradi-Joo, M, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moradzadeh, R, Moraga, P, Mosapour, A, Mouodi, S, Mousavi, SM, Khaneghah, AM, Mueller, UO, Muluneh, AG, Munro, SB, Murray, CJL, Murthy, GVS, Muthupandian, S, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, AJ, Naghavi, M, Nangia, V, Nansseu, JR, Nayak, VC, Nazari, J, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, HLT, Nguyen, CTK, Nguyen, TH, Nigatu, YT, Nikbakhsh, R, Nikfar, S, Nikpoor, AR, Ningrum, DNA, Nnaji, CA, Oh, I-H, Oladnabi, M, Olagunju, AT, Olusanya, JO, Olusanya, BO, Bali, AO, Omer, MO, Onwujekwe, OE, Osgood-Zimmerman, AE, Owolabi, MO, P, A, M, Padubidri, JR, Pakshir, K, Pana, A, Pandey, A, Pando-Robles, V, Pashaei, T, Pasupula, DK, Paternina-Caicedo, AJ, Patton, GC, Pazoki Toroudi, H, Pepito, VCF, Pescarini, JM, Pigott, DM, Pilgrim, T, Pirsaheb, M, Poljak, M, Postma, MJ, Pourjafar, H, Pourmalek, F, Pourmirza, Kalhori, R, Prada, SI, Prakash, S, Quazi Syed, Z, Quintana, H, Rabiee, N, Rabiee, M, Radfar, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rajati, F, Rameto, MA, Ramezanzadeh, K, Ranabhat, CL, Rao, SJ, Rasella, D, Rastogi, P, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawaf, DL, Rawal, L, Rawassizadeh, R, Rawat, R, Renjith, V, Renzaho, AMN, Reshmi, B, Reta, MA, Rezaei, N, Rezai, MS, Rezapour, A, Riahi, SM, Ribeiro, AI, Rickard, J, Rios-Blancas, M, Rios-González, CM, Roever, L, Rostamian, M, Rubino, S, Rwegerera, GM, Saad, AM, Saadatagah, S, Sabour, S, Sadeghi, E, Moghaddam, SS, Saeidi, S, Sagar, R, Sahebkar, A, Sahraian, MA, Sajadi, SM, Salahshoor, MR, Salam, N, Salem, H, Salem, MR, Salomon, JA, Kafil, HS, Sambala, EZ, Samy, AM, Saraswathy, SYI, Sarmiento-Suárez, R, Saroshe, S, Sartorius, B, Sarveazad, A, Sathian, B, Sathish, T, Schaeffer, LE, Schwebel, DC, Senthilkumaran, S, Shabaninejad, H, Shahabi, S, Shaheen, AA, Shaikh, MA, Shalash, AS, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Shamsi, MB, Shamsizadeh, M, Sharafi, K, Sharifi, H, Sheikh, A, Sheikhtaheri, A, Shetty, RS, Shiferaw, WS, Shigematsu, M, Shin, JI, Shirkoohi, R, Siabani, S, Siddiqi, TJ, Silverberg, JIS, Simonetti, B, Singh, JA, Sinha, DN, Sinke, AH, Soheili, A, Sokhan, A, Soltani, S, Soofi, M, Sorrie, MB, Soyiri, IN, Spotin, A, Spurlock, EE, Sreeramareddy, CT, Sudaryanto, A, Sufiyan, MB, Suleria, HAR, Abdulkader, RS, Taherkhani, A, Tapak, L, Taveira, N, Taymoori, P, Tefera, YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Teklehaimanot, BF, Tekulu, GH, Tesfay, BE, Tessema, ZT, Tessema, B, Thankappan, KR, Tohidinik, HR, Topor-Madry, R, Tovani-Palone, MR, Tran, BX, Uddin, R, Ullah, I, Umeokonkwo, CD, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Usman, MS, Vaezi, M, Valadan, Tahbaz, S, Valdez, PR, Vasseghian, Y, Veisani, Y, Violante, FS, Vollmer, S, Waheed, Y, Wakefield, J, Wang, Y, Wang, Y-P, Weldesamuel, GT, Werdecker, A, Westerman, R, Wiangkham, T, Wiens, KE, Wiysonge, CS, Woldu, G, Wondafrash, DZ, Wonde, TE, Wu, A-M, Yadollahpour, A, Jabbari, SHY, Yamada, T, Yaya, S, Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V, Yeheyis, TY, Yeshaw, Y, Yilgwan, CS, Yip, P, Yonemoto, N, Younis, MZ, Yousefi, Z, Yousefifard, M, Yousefinezhadi, T, Yu, C, Yusefzadeh, H, Zadey, S, Zahirian, Moghadam, T, Zaki, L, Zaman, SB, Zamani, M, Zamanian, M, Zandian, H, Zangeneh, A, Zarei, F, Zerfu, TA, Zhang, Y, Zhang, Z-J, Zhao, X-JG, Zhou, M, Ziapour, A, Hay, SI, Lim, SS, Mosser, JF, Local Burden of Disease Vaccine Coverage Collaborators, Real World Studies in PharmacoEpidemiology, -Genetics, -Economics and -Therapy (PEGET), Value, Affordability and Sustainability (VALUE), Microbes in Health and Disease (MHD), HUS Comprehensive Cancer Center, Clinicum, Department of Oncology, Sbarra, Alyssa N., Rolfe, Sam, Nguyen, Jason Q., Earl, Lucas, Ahmed, MB, Mosser, Jonathan F, Collaborators, Local Burden of Disease Vaccine Coverage, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Alexander von Humboldt-Stiftung, Unión Europea. Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER/ERDF), Universiti Sains Malaysia (Malasia), Panjab University (India), NIHR - Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (Reino Unido), Australian Research Council, Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto, Local Burden Dis Educ Attainment C, Local Burden of Disease Vaccine Coverage Collaborator, and Violante FS
Subjects: and promotion of well-being, Vacunación Masiva, Internationality, Disease prevention, children under 5 years old, Geographic Mapping, Rural Health, medicine.disease_cause, Cross-reactivity, 0302 clinical medicine, RA0421, Vaccination Refusal, 030212 general & internal medicine, Child, immunity patterns, Pediatric, 0303 health sciences, Public health, Multidisciplinary, biology, Vaccination, Uncertainty, IMMUNIZATION, 3142 Public health care science, environmental and occupational health, COVERAGE, 3. Good health, TIME, 3.4 Vaccines, Child, Preschool, Infectious diseases, A990 Medicine and Dentistry not elsewhere classified, Antibody, Engineering sciences. Technology, AFRICA, General Science & Technology, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), COVID-19, 610 Medicine & health, Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), Local Burden of Disease Vaccine Coverage Collaborators, Article, Vaccine Related, 03 medical and health sciences, measles vaccine, Measels, Low- and middle-income countries, Local burden of disease, Clinical Research, medicine, Humans, Healthcare Disparities, Preschool, PROGRESS, 030304 developmental biology, business.industry, MORTALITY, Developed Countries, Prevention, Comment, Vacunación, Urban Health, Prevention of disease and conditions, Virology, Coronavirus, Good Health and Well Being, Cobertura de Vacunación, biology.protein, Immunization, business, Measles
Abstract: The safe, highly effective measles vaccine has been recommended globally since 1974, yet in 2017 there were more than 17 million cases of measles and 83,400 deaths in children under 5 years old, and more than 99% of both occurred in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs)1–4. Globally comparable, annual, local estimates of routine first-dose measles-containing vaccine (MCV1) coverage are critical for understanding geographically precise immunity patterns, progress towards the targets of the Global Vaccine Action Plan (GVAP), and high-risk areas amid disruptions to vaccination programmes caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)5–8. Here we generated annual estimates of routine childhood MCV1 coverage at 5 × 5-km2 pixel and second administrative levels from 2000 to 2019 in 101 LMICs, quantified geographical inequality and assessed vaccination status by geographical remoteness. After widespread MCV1 gains from 2000 to 2010, coverage regressed in more than half of the districts between 2010 and 2019, leaving many LMICs far from the GVAP goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019. MCV1 coverage was lower in rural than in urban locations, although a larger proportion of unvaccinated children overall lived in urban locations; strategies to provide essential vaccination services should address both geographical contexts. These results provide a tool for decision-makers to strengthen routine MCV1 immunization programmes and provide equitable disease protection for all children., Although progress in the coverage of routine measles vaccination in children in low- and middle-income countries was made during 2000–2019, many countries remain far from the goal of 80% coverage in all districts by 2019.
Published: 2021

8. Monitoring key epidemiological parameters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission

Author: Kraemer Mug., Christophe Fraser, Oliver G. Pybus, Benjamin J. Cowling, Simon Cauchemez, Andrew Rambaut, University of Oxford, Royal Veterinary College [London], University of London [London], Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), University of Edinburgh, and The University of Hong Kong (HKU)
Subjects: medicine.medical_specialty, 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, MESH: Pandemics, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), MESH: Virulence, 010402 general chemistry, 01 natural sciences, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, law.invention, MESH: Population Surveillance, MESH: Contact Tracing, 03 medical and health sciences, MESH: Infection Control, law, MESH: Risk Factors, Epidemiology, medicine, MESH: COVID-19, MESH: SARS-CoV-2, 030304 developmental biology, 0303 health sciences, MESH: Humans, business.industry, MESH: Virus Replication, MESH: Time Factors, General Medicine, Virology, 0104 chemical sciences, Transmission (mechanics), [SDV.MP.VIR]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Microbiology and Parasitology/Virology, Key (cryptography), business, MESH: Databases as Topic
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2021
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9. Tracking the international spread of SARS-CoV-2 lineages B.1.1.7 and B.1.351/501Y-V2 with grinch.

Author: O'Toole, Á, Hill, V, Pybus, OG, Watts, A, Bogoch, II, Khan, K, Messina, JP, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium, Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA), Brazil-UK CADDE Genomic Network, Tegally, H, Lessells, RR, Giandhari, J, Pillay, S, Tumedi, KA, Nyepetsi, G, Kebabonye, M, Matsheka, M, Mine, M, Tokajian, S, Hassan, H, Salloum, T, Merhi, G, Koweyes, J, Geoghegan, JL, de Ligt, J, Ren, X, Storey, M, Freed, NE, Pattabiraman, C, Prasad, P, Desai, AS, Vasanthapuram, R, Schulz, TF, Steinbrück, L, Stadler, T, Swiss Viollier Sequencing Consortium, Parisi, A, Bianco, A, García de Viedma, D, Buenestado-Serrano, S, Borges, V, Isidro, J, Duarte, S, Gomes, JP, Zuckerman, NS, Mandelboim, M, Mor, O, Seemann, T, Arnott, A, Draper, J, Gall, M, Rawlinson, W, Deveson, I, Schlebusch, S, McMahon, J, Leong, L, Lim, CK, Chironna, M, Loconsole, D, Bal, A, Josset, L, Holmes, E, St George, K, Lasek-Nesselquist, E, Sikkema, RS, Oude Munnink, B, Koopmans, M, Brytting, M, Sudha Rani, V, Pavani, S, Smura, T, Heim, A, Kurkela, S, Umair, M, Salman, M, Bartolini, B, Rueca, M, Drosten, C, Wolff, T, Silander, O, Eggink, D, Reusken, C, Vennema, H, Park, A, Carrington, C, Sahadeo, N, Carr, M, Gonzalez, G, SEARCH Alliance San Diego, National Virus Reference Laboratory, SeqCOVID-Spain, Danish Covid-19 Genome Consortium (DCGC), Communicable Diseases Genomic Network (CDGN), Dutch National SARS-CoV-2 surveillance program, Division of Emerging Infectious Diseases (KDCA), de Oliveira, T, Faria, N, Rambaut, A, Kraemer, MUG, O'Toole, Á, Hill, V, Pybus, OG, Watts, A, Bogoch, II, Khan, K, Messina, JP, COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium, Network for Genomic Surveillance in South Africa (NGS-SA), Brazil-UK CADDE Genomic Network, Tegally, H, Lessells, RR, Giandhari, J, Pillay, S, Tumedi, KA, Nyepetsi, G, Kebabonye, M, Matsheka, M, Mine, M, Tokajian, S, Hassan, H, Salloum, T, Merhi, G, Koweyes, J, Geoghegan, JL, de Ligt, J, Ren, X, Storey, M, Freed, NE, Pattabiraman, C, Prasad, P, Desai, AS, Vasanthapuram, R, Schulz, TF, Steinbrück, L, Stadler, T, Swiss Viollier Sequencing Consortium, Parisi, A, Bianco, A, García de Viedma, D, Buenestado-Serrano, S, Borges, V, Isidro, J, Duarte, S, Gomes, JP, Zuckerman, NS, Mandelboim, M, Mor, O, Seemann, T, Arnott, A, Draper, J, Gall, M, Rawlinson, W, Deveson, I, Schlebusch, S, McMahon, J, Leong, L, Lim, CK, Chironna, M, Loconsole, D, Bal, A, Josset, L, Holmes, E, St George, K, Lasek-Nesselquist, E, Sikkema, RS, Oude Munnink, B, Koopmans, M, Brytting, M, Sudha Rani, V, Pavani, S, Smura, T, Heim, A, Kurkela, S, Umair, M, Salman, M, Bartolini, B, Rueca, M, Drosten, C, Wolff, T, Silander, O, Eggink, D, Reusken, C, Vennema, H, Park, A, Carrington, C, Sahadeo, N, Carr, M, Gonzalez, G, SEARCH Alliance San Diego, National Virus Reference Laboratory, SeqCOVID-Spain, Danish Covid-19 Genome Consortium (DCGC), Communicable Diseases Genomic Network (CDGN), Dutch National SARS-CoV-2 surveillance program, Division of Emerging Infectious Diseases (KDCA), de Oliveira, T, Faria, N, Rambaut, A, and Kraemer, MUG
Abstract: Late in 2020, two genetically-distinct clusters of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with mutations of biological concern were reported, one in the United Kingdom and one in South Africa. Using a combination of data from routine surveillance, genomic sequencing and international travel we track the international dispersal of lineages B.1.1.7 and B.1.351 (variant 501Y-V2). We account for potential biases in genomic surveillance efforts by including passenger volumes from location of where the lineage was first reported, London and South Africa respectively. Using the software tool grinch (global report investigating novel coronavirus haplotypes), we track the international spread of lineages of concern with automated daily reports, Further, we have built a custom tracking website (cov-lineages.org/global_report.html) which hosts this daily report and will continue to include novel SARS-CoV-2 lineages of concern as they are detected.
Published: 2021

10. Estimating global injuries morbidity and mortality: methods and data used in the Global Burden of Disease 2017 study.

Author: James, SL, Castle, CD, Dingels, ZV, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Liu, Z, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Bertolacci, GJ, Cunningham, M, Henry, NJ, Catalá-López, F, Cerin, E, Chandan, JS, Chapman, JR, Chattu, VK, Chattu, SK, Chatziralli, I, Chaudhary, N, Cho, DY, Choi, J-YJ, LeGrand, KE, Kabir Chowdhury, MA, Christopher, DJ, Chu, D-T, Cicuttini, FM, Coelho, JM, Costa, VM, Dahlawi, SMA, Daryani, A, Dávila-Cervantes, CA, Leo, DD, Abdelalim, A, Demeke, FM, Demoz, GT, Demsie, DG, Deribe, K, Desai, R, Nasab, MD, Silva, DDD, Dibaji Forooshani, ZS, Do, HT, Doyle, KE, Abdollahpour, I, Driscoll, TR, Dubljanin, E, Adema, BD, Eagan, AW, Elemineh, DA, El-Jaafary, SI, El-Khatib, Z, Ellingsen, CL, Zaki, MES, Eskandarieh, S, Abdulkader, RS, Eyawo, O, Faris, PS, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Ferrara, P, Fischer, F, Folayan, MO, Fomenkov, AA, Abedi, A, Foroutan, M, Francis, JM, Franklin, RC, Fukumoto, T, Geberemariyam, BS, Gebremariam, H, Gebremedhin, KB, Gebremeskel, LG, Gebremeskel, GG, Gebremichael, B, Abegaz, KH, Gedefaw, GA, Geta, B, Getenet, AB, Ghafourifard, M, Ghamari, F, Gheshlagh, RG, Gholamian, A, Gilani, SA, Gill, TK, Goudarzian, AH, Abosetugn, AE, Goulart, AC, Grada, A, Grivna, M, Guimarães, RA, Guo, Y, Gupta, G, Haagsma, JA, Hall, BJ, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Abushouk, AI, Handiso, DW, Haro, JM, Hasanzadeh, A, Hassan, S, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, HY, Havmoeller, R, Hendrie, D, Heydarpour, F, Adebayo, OM, Híjar, M, Ho, HC, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Holla, R, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, S, Hu, G, Ibitoye, SE, Adsuar, JC, Ilesanmi, OS, Inbaraj, LR, Naghibi Irvani, SS, Mofizul Islam, M, Shariful Islam, SM, Ivers, RQ, Jahani, MA, Jakovljevic, M, Jalilian, F, Jayaraman, S, Advani, SM, Jayatilleke, AU, Jha, RP, John-Akinola, YO, Jonas, JB, Jones, KM, Joseph, N, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Jungari, SB, Jürisson, M, Agudelo-Botero, M, Kabir, A, Kahsay, A, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kamil, TA, Kanchan, T, Kapoor, N, Karami, M, Kasaeian, A, Kassaye, HG, Ahmad, T, Kavetskyy, T, Kayode, GA, Keiyoro, PN, Kelbore, AG, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khalid, N, Khalil, IA, Khalilov, R, Khan, M, Ahmed, MB, Khan, EA, Khan, J, Khanna, T, Khazaei, S, Khazaie, H, Khundkar, R, Kiirithio, DN, Kim, Y-E, Kim, YJ, Kim, D, Ahmed, R, Kisa, S, Kisa, A, Komaki, H, Kondlahalli, SKM, Koolivand, A, Korshunov, VA, Koyanagi, A, Kraemer, MUG, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Eddine Aichour, MT, Bicer, BK, Kugbey, N, Kumar, N, Kumar, M, Kumar, V, Kumaresh, G, Lami, FH, Lansingh, VC, Lasrado, S, Alahdab, F, Latifi, A, Lauriola, P, Vecchia, CL, Leasher, JL, Huey Lee, SW, Li, S, Liu, X, Lopez, AD, Lotufo, PA, Lyons, RA, Alanezi, FM, Machado, DB, Madadin, M, Abd El Razek, MM, Mahotra, NB, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Maled, V, Malta, DC, Manafi, N, Manafi, A, Alema, NM, Manda, A-L, Manjunatha, N, Mansour-Ghanaei, F, Mansournia, MA, Maravilla, JC, Mason-Jones, AJ, Masoumi, SZ, Massenburg, BB, Maulik, PK, Mehndiratta, MM, Alemu, BW, Melketsedik, ZA, Memiah, PTN, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, MM, Meretoja, TJ, Meretoja, A, Merie, HE, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, B, Alghnam, SA, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mirzaei-Alavijeh, M, Mithra, P, Moazen, B, Moghadaszadeh, M, Mohamadi, E, Ali, BA, Mohammad, Y, Darwesh, AM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mohammed, JA, Mohebi, F, Mohseni Bandpei, MA, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Ali, S, Moodley, Y, Moradi, M, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moradzadeh, R, Morawska, L, Velásquez, IM, Morrison, SD, Mossie, TB, Muluneh, AG, Alinia, C, Musa, KI, Mustafa, G, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, AJ, Naik, G, Naimzada, MD, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Nascimento, BR, Naserbakht, M, Alipour, V, Nayak, V, Nazari, J, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, TH, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, DN, Thi Nguyen, HL, Nikbakhsh, R, Aljunid, SM, Anggraini Ningrum, DN, Nnaji, CA, Ofori-Asenso, R, Ogbo, FA, Oghenetega, OB, Oh, I-H, Olagunju, AT, Olagunju, TO, Bali, AO, Onwujekwe, OE, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Orpana, HM, Ota, E, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, SS, P A, M, Padubidri, JR, Pakhale, S, Pakshir, K, Panda-Jonas, S, Park, E-K, Almasri, NA, Patel, SK, Pathak, A, Pati, S, Paulos, K, Peden, AE, Filipino Pepito, VC, Pereira, J, Phillips, MR, Polibin, RV, Polinder, S, Altirkawi, K, Pourmalek, F, Pourshams, A, Poustchi, H, Prakash, S, Angga Pribadi, DR, Puri, P, Syed, ZQ, Rabiee, N, Rabiee, M, Radfar, A, Abdeldayem Amer, YS, Rafay, A, Rafiee, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi, S, Rahman, MA, Rajabpour-Sanati, A, Rajati, F, Rakovac, I, Rao, SJ, Andrei, CL, Rashedi, V, Rastogi, P, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawal, L, Rawassizadeh, R, Renjith, V, Resnikoff, S, Rezapour, A, Ribeiro, AI, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Rickard, J, Rios González, CM, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Saddik, B, Safarpour, H, Safdarian, M, Mohammad Sajadi, S, Salamati, P, T Antonio, CA, Rashad Salem, MR, Salem, H, Salz, I, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Riera, LS, Santric Milicevic, MM, Sarker, AR, Sarveazad, A, Sathian, B, Anvari, D, Sawhney, M, Sayyah, M, Schwebel, DC, Seedat, S, Senthilkumaran, S, Seyedmousavi, S, Sha, F, Shaahmadi, F, Shahabi, S, Shaikh, MA, Yaw Appiah, SC, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Sheikh, A, Shigematsu, M, Shin, JI, Shiri, R, Siabani, S, Sigfusdottir, ID, Singh, JA, Singh, PK, Sinha, DN, Arabloo, J, Soheili, A, Soriano, JB, Sorrie, MB, Soyiri, IN, Stokes, MA, Sufiyan, MB, Sykes, BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos, R, Tabb, KM, Taddele, BW, Arab-Zozani, M, Tefera, YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Tekulu, GH, Tesema Tesema, AK, Tesfay, BE, Thapar, R, Titova, MV, Tlaye, KG, Tohidinik, HR, Topor-Madry, R, Arefi, Z, Tran, KB, Tran, BX, Tripathy, JP, Tsai, AC, Tsatsakis, A, Car, LT, Ullah, I, Ullah, S, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Aremu, O, Uthman, OA, Valdez, PR, Vasankari, TJ, Veisani, Y, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wiangkham, T, Ariani, F, Wolde, HF, Woldeyes, DH, Wondmeneh, TG, Wondmieneh, AB, Wu, A-M, Wyper, GMA, Yadav, R, Yadollahpour, A, Yano, Y, Yaya, S, Arora, A, Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V, Ye, P, Yip, P, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S-J, Youm, Y, Younis, MZ, Yousefi, Z, Yu, C, Asaad, M, Yu, Y, Moghadam, TZ, Zaidi, Z, Zaman, SB, Zamani, M, Zandian, H, Zarei, F, Zhang, Z-J, Zhang, Y, Ziapour, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Zodpey, S, Dandona, R, Dharmaratne, SD, Hay, SI, Mokdad, AH, Pigott, DM, Reiner, RC, Vos, T, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Azarian, G, Badawi, A, Badiye, AD, Baig, AA, Bairwa, M, Bakhtiari, A, Balachandran, A, Banach, M, Banerjee, SK, Banik, PC, Banstola, A, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Barzegar, A, Bayati, M, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Belete, H, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berhe, K, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, P, Bhat, AG, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Bibi, S, Bijani, A, Boloor, A, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Borzì, AM, Boufous, S, Braithwaite, D, Briko, NI, Brugha, T, Budhathoki, SS, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, Castelpietra, G, James, SL, Castle, CD, Dingels, ZV, Fox, JT, Hamilton, EB, Liu, Z, Roberts, NLS, Sylte, DO, Bertolacci, GJ, Cunningham, M, Henry, NJ, Catalá-López, F, Cerin, E, Chandan, JS, Chapman, JR, Chattu, VK, Chattu, SK, Chatziralli, I, Chaudhary, N, Cho, DY, Choi, J-YJ, LeGrand, KE, Kabir Chowdhury, MA, Christopher, DJ, Chu, D-T, Cicuttini, FM, Coelho, JM, Costa, VM, Dahlawi, SMA, Daryani, A, Dávila-Cervantes, CA, Leo, DD, Abdelalim, A, Demeke, FM, Demoz, GT, Demsie, DG, Deribe, K, Desai, R, Nasab, MD, Silva, DDD, Dibaji Forooshani, ZS, Do, HT, Doyle, KE, Abdollahpour, I, Driscoll, TR, Dubljanin, E, Adema, BD, Eagan, AW, Elemineh, DA, El-Jaafary, SI, El-Khatib, Z, Ellingsen, CL, Zaki, MES, Eskandarieh, S, Abdulkader, RS, Eyawo, O, Faris, PS, Faro, A, Farzadfar, F, Fereshtehnejad, S-M, Fernandes, E, Ferrara, P, Fischer, F, Folayan, MO, Fomenkov, AA, Abedi, A, Foroutan, M, Francis, JM, Franklin, RC, Fukumoto, T, Geberemariyam, BS, Gebremariam, H, Gebremedhin, KB, Gebremeskel, LG, Gebremeskel, GG, Gebremichael, B, Abegaz, KH, Gedefaw, GA, Geta, B, Getenet, AB, Ghafourifard, M, Ghamari, F, Gheshlagh, RG, Gholamian, A, Gilani, SA, Gill, TK, Goudarzian, AH, Abosetugn, AE, Goulart, AC, Grada, A, Grivna, M, Guimarães, RA, Guo, Y, Gupta, G, Haagsma, JA, Hall, BJ, Hamadeh, RR, Hamidi, S, Abushouk, AI, Handiso, DW, Haro, JM, Hasanzadeh, A, Hassan, S, Hassanipour, S, Hassankhani, H, Hassen, HY, Havmoeller, R, Hendrie, D, Heydarpour, F, Adebayo, OM, Híjar, M, Ho, HC, Hoang, CL, Hole, MK, Holla, R, Hossain, N, Hosseinzadeh, M, Hostiuc, S, Hu, G, Ibitoye, SE, Adsuar, JC, Ilesanmi, OS, Inbaraj, LR, Naghibi Irvani, SS, Mofizul Islam, M, Shariful Islam, SM, Ivers, RQ, Jahani, MA, Jakovljevic, M, Jalilian, F, Jayaraman, S, Advani, SM, Jayatilleke, AU, Jha, RP, John-Akinola, YO, Jonas, JB, Jones, KM, Joseph, N, Joukar, F, Jozwiak, JJ, Jungari, SB, Jürisson, M, Agudelo-Botero, M, Kabir, A, Kahsay, A, Kalankesh, LR, Kalhor, R, Kamil, TA, Kanchan, T, Kapoor, N, Karami, M, Kasaeian, A, Kassaye, HG, Ahmad, T, Kavetskyy, T, Kayode, GA, Keiyoro, PN, Kelbore, AG, Khader, YS, Khafaie, MA, Khalid, N, Khalil, IA, Khalilov, R, Khan, M, Ahmed, MB, Khan, EA, Khan, J, Khanna, T, Khazaei, S, Khazaie, H, Khundkar, R, Kiirithio, DN, Kim, Y-E, Kim, YJ, Kim, D, Ahmed, R, Kisa, S, Kisa, A, Komaki, H, Kondlahalli, SKM, Koolivand, A, Korshunov, VA, Koyanagi, A, Kraemer, MUG, Krishan, K, Defo, BK, Eddine Aichour, MT, Bicer, BK, Kugbey, N, Kumar, N, Kumar, M, Kumar, V, Kumaresh, G, Lami, FH, Lansingh, VC, Lasrado, S, Alahdab, F, Latifi, A, Lauriola, P, Vecchia, CL, Leasher, JL, Huey Lee, SW, Li, S, Liu, X, Lopez, AD, Lotufo, PA, Lyons, RA, Alanezi, FM, Machado, DB, Madadin, M, Abd El Razek, MM, Mahotra, NB, Majdan, M, Majeed, A, Maled, V, Malta, DC, Manafi, N, Manafi, A, Alema, NM, Manda, A-L, Manjunatha, N, Mansour-Ghanaei, F, Mansournia, MA, Maravilla, JC, Mason-Jones, AJ, Masoumi, SZ, Massenburg, BB, Maulik, PK, Mehndiratta, MM, Alemu, BW, Melketsedik, ZA, Memiah, PTN, Mendoza, W, Menezes, RG, Mengesha, MM, Meretoja, TJ, Meretoja, A, Merie, HE, Mestrovic, T, Miazgowski, B, Alghnam, SA, Miazgowski, T, Miller, TR, Mini, GK, Mirica, A, Mirrakhimov, EM, Mirzaei-Alavijeh, M, Mithra, P, Moazen, B, Moghadaszadeh, M, Mohamadi, E, Ali, BA, Mohammad, Y, Darwesh, AM, Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A, Mohammadpourhodki, R, Mohammed, S, Mohammed, JA, Mohebi, F, Mohseni Bandpei, MA, Molokhia, M, Monasta, L, Ali, S, Moodley, Y, Moradi, M, Moradi, G, Moradi-Lakeh, M, Moradzadeh, R, Morawska, L, Velásquez, IM, Morrison, SD, Mossie, TB, Muluneh, AG, Alinia, C, Musa, KI, Mustafa, G, Naderi, M, Nagarajan, AJ, Naik, G, Naimzada, MD, Najafi, F, Nangia, V, Nascimento, BR, Naserbakht, M, Alipour, V, Nayak, V, Nazari, J, Ndwandwe, DE, Negoi, I, Ngunjiri, JW, Nguyen, TH, Nguyen, CT, Nguyen, DN, Thi Nguyen, HL, Nikbakhsh, R, Aljunid, SM, Anggraini Ningrum, DN, Nnaji, CA, Ofori-Asenso, R, Ogbo, FA, Oghenetega, OB, Oh, I-H, Olagunju, AT, Olagunju, TO, Bali, AO, Onwujekwe, OE, Almasi-Hashiani, A, Orpana, HM, Ota, E, Otstavnov, N, Otstavnov, SS, P A, M, Padubidri, JR, Pakhale, S, Pakshir, K, Panda-Jonas, S, Park, E-K, Almasri, NA, Patel, SK, Pathak, A, Pati, S, Paulos, K, Peden, AE, Filipino Pepito, VC, Pereira, J, Phillips, MR, Polibin, RV, Polinder, S, Altirkawi, K, Pourmalek, F, Pourshams, A, Poustchi, H, Prakash, S, Angga Pribadi, DR, Puri, P, Syed, ZQ, Rabiee, N, Rabiee, M, Radfar, A, Abdeldayem Amer, YS, Rafay, A, Rafiee, A, Rafiei, A, Rahim, F, Rahimi, S, Rahman, MA, Rajabpour-Sanati, A, Rajati, F, Rakovac, I, Rao, SJ, Andrei, CL, Rashedi, V, Rastogi, P, Rathi, P, Rawaf, S, Rawal, L, Rawassizadeh, R, Renjith, V, Resnikoff, S, Rezapour, A, Ribeiro, AI, Ansari-Moghaddam, A, Rickard, J, Rios González, CM, Roever, L, Ronfani, L, Roshandel, G, Saddik, B, Safarpour, H, Safdarian, M, Mohammad Sajadi, S, Salamati, P, T Antonio, CA, Rashad Salem, MR, Salem, H, Salz, I, Samy, AM, Sanabria, J, Riera, LS, Santric Milicevic, MM, Sarker, AR, Sarveazad, A, Sathian, B, Anvari, D, Sawhney, M, Sayyah, M, Schwebel, DC, Seedat, S, Senthilkumaran, S, Seyedmousavi, S, Sha, F, Shaahmadi, F, Shahabi, S, Shaikh, MA, Yaw Appiah, SC, Shams-Beyranvand, M, Sheikh, A, Shigematsu, M, Shin, JI, Shiri, R, Siabani, S, Sigfusdottir, ID, Singh, JA, Singh, PK, Sinha, DN, Arabloo, J, Soheili, A, Soriano, JB, Sorrie, MB, Soyiri, IN, Stokes, MA, Sufiyan, MB, Sykes, BL, Tabarés-Seisdedos, R, Tabb, KM, Taddele, BW, Arab-Zozani, M, Tefera, YM, Tehrani-Banihashemi, A, Tekulu, GH, Tesema Tesema, AK, Tesfay, BE, Thapar, R, Titova, MV, Tlaye, KG, Tohidinik, HR, Topor-Madry, R, Arefi, Z, Tran, KB, Tran, BX, Tripathy, JP, Tsai, AC, Tsatsakis, A, Car, LT, Ullah, I, Ullah, S, Unnikrishnan, B, Upadhyay, E, Aremu, O, Uthman, OA, Valdez, PR, Vasankari, TJ, Veisani, Y, Venketasubramanian, N, Violante, FS, Vlassov, V, Waheed, Y, Wang, Y-P, Wiangkham, T, Ariani, F, Wolde, HF, Woldeyes, DH, Wondmeneh, TG, Wondmieneh, AB, Wu, A-M, Wyper, GMA, Yadav, R, Yadollahpour, A, Yano, Y, Yaya, S, Arora, A, Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V, Ye, P, Yip, P, Yisma, E, Yonemoto, N, Yoon, S-J, Youm, Y, Younis, MZ, Yousefi, Z, Yu, C, Asaad, M, Yu, Y, Moghadam, TZ, Zaidi, Z, Zaman, SB, Zamani, M, Zandian, H, Zarei, F, Zhang, Z-J, Zhang, Y, Ziapour, A, Ayala Quintanilla, BP, Zodpey, S, Dandona, R, Dharmaratne, SD, Hay, SI, Mokdad, AH, Pigott, DM, Reiner, RC, Vos, T, Ayano, G, Ayanore, MA, Azarian, G, Badawi, A, Badiye, AD, Baig, AA, Bairwa, M, Bakhtiari, A, Balachandran, A, Banach, M, Banerjee, SK, Banik, PC, Banstola, A, Barker-Collo, SL, Bärnighausen, TW, Barzegar, A, Bayati, M, Bazargan-Hejazi, S, Bedi, N, Behzadifar, M, Belete, H, Bennett, DA, Bensenor, IM, Berhe, K, Bhagavathula, AS, Bhardwaj, P, Bhat, AG, Bhattacharyya, K, Bhutta, ZA, Bibi, S, Bijani, A, Boloor, A, Borges, G, Borschmann, R, Borzì, AM, Boufous, S, Braithwaite, D, Briko, NI, Brugha, T, Budhathoki, SS, Car, J, Cárdenas, R, Carvalho, F, Castaldelli-Maia, JM, Castañeda-Orjuela, CA, and Castelpietra, G
Abstract: BACKGROUND: While there is a long history of measuring death and disability from injuries, modern research methods must account for the wide spectrum of disability that can occur in an injury, and must provide estimates with sufficient demographic, geographical and temporal detail to be useful for policy makers. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study used methods to provide highly detailed estimates of global injury burden that meet these criteria. METHODS: In this study, we report and discuss the methods used in GBD 2017 for injury morbidity and mortality burden estimation. In summary, these methods included estimating cause-specific mortality for every cause of injury, and then estimating incidence for every cause of injury. Non-fatal disability for each cause is then calculated based on the probabilities of suffering from different types of bodily injury experienced. RESULTS: GBD 2017 produced morbidity and mortality estimates for 38 causes of injury. Estimates were produced in terms of incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, cause-specific mortality, years of life lost and disability-adjusted life-years for a 28-year period for 22 age groups, 195 countries and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: GBD 2017 demonstrated a complex and sophisticated series of analytical steps using the largest known database of morbidity and mortality data on injuries. GBD 2017 results should be used to help inform injury prevention policy making and resource allocation. We also identify important avenues for improving injury burden estimation in the future.
Published: 2020

11. Local, national, and regional viral haemorrhagic fever pandemic potential in Africa: a multistage analysis

Author: Pigott, DM, Deshpande, A, Letourneau, I, Morozoff, C, Reiner, RC, Kraemer, MUG, Brent, SE, Bogoch, II, Khan, K, Biehl, MH, Burstein, R, Earl, L, Fullman, N, Messina, JP, Mylne, AQN, Moyes, CL, Shearer, FM, Bhatt, S, Brady, OJ, Gething, PW, Weiss, DJ, Tatem, AJ, Caley, L, De Groeve, T, Vernaccini, L, Golding, N, Horby, P, Kuhn, JH, Laney, SJ, Ng, E, Piot, P, Sankoh, O, Murray, CJL, Hay, SI, and Medical Research Council (MRC)
Subjects: EMERGING INFECTIOUS-DISEASES, Science & Technology, Hemorrhagic Fevers, Viral, PREDICTION, MODELS, EBOLA, SCIENCE, 11 Medical And Health Sciences, Risk Assessment, Article, Disease Outbreaks, Medicine, General & Internal, General & Internal Medicine, Africa, Humans, ZOONOTIC NICHE, Hemorrhagic Fever, Crimean, LASSA FEVER, HEALTH, VIRUS-DISEASE, REFORMS, Epidemics, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Pandemics
Abstract: Summary Background Predicting when and where pathogens will emerge is difficult, yet, as shown by the recent Ebola and Zika epidemics, effective and timely responses are key. It is therefore crucial to transition from reactive to proactive responses for these pathogens. To better identify priorities for outbreak mitigation and prevention, we developed a cohesive framework combining disparate methods and data sources, and assessed subnational pandemic potential for four viral haemorrhagic fevers in Africa, Crimean–Congo haemorrhagic fever, Ebola virus disease, Lassa fever, and Marburg virus disease. Methods In this multistage analysis, we quantified three stages underlying the potential of widespread viral haemorrhagic fever epidemics. Environmental suitability maps were used to define stage 1, index-case potential, which assesses populations at risk of infection due to spillover from zoonotic hosts or vectors, identifying where index cases could present. Stage 2, outbreak potential, iterates upon an existing framework, the Index for Risk Management, to measure potential for secondary spread in people within specific communities. For stage 3, epidemic potential, we combined local and international scale connectivity assessments with stage 2 to evaluate possible spread of local outbreaks nationally, regionally, and internationally. Findings We found epidemic potential to vary within Africa, with regions where viral haemorrhagic fever outbreaks have previously occurred (eg, western Africa) and areas currently considered non-endemic (eg, Cameroon and Ethiopia) both ranking highly. Tracking transitions between stages showed how an index case can escalate into a widespread epidemic in the absence of intervention (eg, Nigeria and Guinea). Our analysis showed Chad, Somalia, and South Sudan to be highly susceptible to any outbreak at subnational levels. Interpretation Our analysis provides a unified assessment of potential epidemic trajectories, with the aim of allowing national and international agencies to pre-emptively evaluate needs and target resources. Within each country, our framework identifies at-risk subnational locations in which to improve surveillance, diagnostic capabilities, and health systems in parallel with the design of policies for optimal responses at each stage. In conjunction with pandemic preparedness activities, assessments such as ours can identify regions where needs and provisions do not align, and thus should be targeted for future strengthening and support. Funding Paul G Allen Family Foundation, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, UK Department for International Development.
Published: 2017

12. Zika virus transmission in Angola and the potential for further spread to other African settings

Author: Kraemer, MUG, Brady, OJ, Watts, A, German, M, Hay, SI, Khan, K, and Bogoch, II
Subjects: Travel, Zika Virus Infection, Short Communications, Zika Virus, Models, Theoretical, Global Health, Disease Outbreaks, Angola, Mosquito, Aedes, Population Surveillance, Africa, Humans, Globalization, Air travel, ZIKV
Abstract: BackgroundCases of Zika virus were recently detected in Luanda, Angola, a major travel hub in Africa. The risk of Zika virus transmission throughout the continent from Angola is evaluated. MethodsTravel volumes were assessed using monthly passenger-level flight data from Luanda to all locations throughout Africa. Travel data was superimposed onto seasonal environmental suitability maps that predict the potential for subsequent Zika virus transmission. Results and ConclusionsWindhoek, Maputo, Durban and Kinshasa have the greatest potential for Zika virus introduction and transmission during the southern hemisphere summer months, and Nairobi during the northern hemisphere summer months.
Published: 2018

13. Utilizing general human movement models to predict the spread of emerging infectious diseases in resource poor settings

Author: Kraemer, MUG, Golding, N, Bisanzio, D, Bhatt, S, Pigott, DM, Ray, SE, Brady, OJ, Brownstein, JS, Faria, NR, Cummings, DAT, Pybus, OG, Smith, DL, Tatem, AJ, Hay, SI, and Reiner, RC
Subjects: lcsh:R, lcsh:Medicine, lcsh:Q, lcsh:Science
Abstract: Human mobility is an important driver of geographic spread of infectious pathogens. Detailed information about human movements during outbreaks are, however, difficult to obtain and may not be available during future epidemics. The Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak in West Africa between 2014–16 demonstrated how quickly pathogens can spread to large urban centers following one cross-species transmission event. Here we describe a flexible transmission model to test the utility of generalised human movement models in estimating EVD cases and spatial spread over the course of the outbreak. A transmission model that includes a general model of human mobility significantly improves prediction of EVD’s incidence compared to models without this component. Human movement plays an important role not only to ignite the epidemic in locations previously disease free, but over the course of the entire epidemic. We also demonstrate important differences between countries in population mixing and the improved prediction attributable to movement metrics. Given their relative rareness, locally derived mobility data are unlikely to exist in advance of future epidemics or pandemics. Our findings show that transmission patterns derived from general human movement models can improve forecasts of spatio-temporal transmission patterns in places where local mobility data is unavailable.
Published: 2019

14. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (vol 4, pg 854, 2019)

Author: Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, SI, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, SI, and Golding, N
Abstract: This Article was mistakenly not made Open Access when originally published; this has now been amended, and information about the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License has been added into the 'Additional information' section.
Published: 2019

15. Past and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus

Author: Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, O, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, N, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, S, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Reiner, RC, Brady, O, Messina, JP, Gilbert, M, Pigott, DM, Yi, D, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, N, Bisanzio, D, Perkins, TA, Lai, S, Lu, X, Jones, P, Coelho, GE, Carvalho, RG, Van Bortel, W, Marsboom, C, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Moore, CG, Nax, HH, Bengtsson, L, Wetter, E, Tatem, AJ, Brownstein, JS, Smith, DL, Lambrechts, L, Cauchemez, S, Linard, C, Faria, NR, Pybus, OG, Scott, TW, Liu, Q, Yu, H, Wint, GRW, Hay, S, and Golding, N
Abstract: The global population at risk from mosquito-borne diseases-including dengue, yellow fever, chikungunya and Zika-is expanding in concert with changes in the distribution of two key vectors: Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. The distribution of these species is largely driven by both human movement and the presence of suitable climate. Using statistical mapping techniques, we show that human movement patterns explain the spread of both species in Europe and the United States following their introduction. We find that the spread of Ae. aegypti is characterized by long distance importations, while Ae. albopictus has expanded more along the fringes of its distribution. We describe these processes and predict the future distributions of both species in response to accelerating urbanization, connectivity and climate change. Global surveillance and control efforts that aim to mitigate the spread of chikungunya, dengue, yellow fever and Zika viruses must consider the so far unabated spread of these mosquitos. Our maps and predictions offer an opportunity to strategically target surveillance and control programmes and thereby augment efforts to reduce arbovirus burden in human populations globally.
Published: 2019

16. The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue

Author: Messina, JP, Brady, OJ, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Wint, GRW, Ray, SE, Pigott, DM, Shearer, FM, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Gilbert, M, Velayudhan, R, Jones, P, Jaenisch, T, Scott, TW, Reiner, RC, Hay, S, Messina, JP, Brady, OJ, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Wint, GRW, Ray, SE, Pigott, DM, Shearer, FM, Johnson, K, Earl, L, Marczak, LB, Shirude, S, Weaver, ND, Gilbert, M, Velayudhan, R, Jones, P, Jaenisch, T, Scott, TW, Reiner, RC, and Hay, S
Abstract: Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection that has spread throughout the tropical world over the past 60 years and now affects over half the world's population. The geographical range of dengue is expected to further expand due to ongoing global phenomena including climate change and urbanization. We applied statistical mapping techniques to the most extensive database of case locations to date to predict global environmental suitability for the virus as of 2015. We then made use of climate, population and socioeconomic projections for the years 2020, 2050 and 2080 to project future changes in virus suitability and human population at risk. This study is the first to consider the spread of Aedes mosquito vectors to project dengue suitability. Our projections provide a key missing piece of evidence for the changing global threat of vector-borne disease and will help decision-makers worldwide to better prepare for and respond to future changes in dengue risk.
Published: 2019

17. Data Descriptor: Spatiotemporal incidence of Zika and associated environmental drivers for the 2015-2016 epidemic in Colombia

Author: Siraj, AS, Rodriguez-Barraquer, I, Barker, CM, Tejedor-Garavito, N, Harding, D, Lorton, C, Lukacevic, D, Oates, G, Espana, G, Kraemer, MUG, Manore, C, Johansson, MA, Tatem, AJ, Reiner, RC, and Perkins, TA
Abstract: © The Author(s) 2018. Despite a long history of mosquito-borne virus epidemics in the Americas, the impact of the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic of 2015-2016 was unexpected. The need for scientifically informed decision-making is driving research to understand the emergence and spread of ZIKV. To support that research, we assembled a data set of key covariates for modeling ZIKV transmission dynamics in Colombia, where ZIKV transmission was widespread and the government made incidence data publically available. On a weekly basis between January 1, 2014 and October 1, 2016 at three administrative levels, we collated spatiotemporal Zika incidence data, nine environmental variables, and demographic data into a single downloadable database. These new datasets and those we identified, processed, and assembled at comparable spatial and temporal resolutions will save future researchers considerable time and effort in performing these data processing steps, enabling them to focus instead on extracting epidemiological insights from this important data set. Similar approaches could prove useful for filling data gaps to enable epidemiological analyses of future disease emergence events.
Published: 2018

18. Existing and potential infection risk zones of yellow fever worldwide: a modelling analysis

Author: Shearer, FM, Longbottom, J, Browne, AJ, Pigott, DM, Brady, OJ, Kraemer, MUG, Marinho, F, Yactayo, S, de Araujo, VEM, da Nobrega, AA, Fullman, N, Ray, SE, Mosser, JF, Stanaway, JD, Lim, SS, Reiner, RC, Moyes, CL, Hay, SI, Golding, N, Shearer, FM, Longbottom, J, Browne, AJ, Pigott, DM, Brady, OJ, Kraemer, MUG, Marinho, F, Yactayo, S, de Araujo, VEM, da Nobrega, AA, Fullman, N, Ray, SE, Mosser, JF, Stanaway, JD, Lim, SS, Reiner, RC, Moyes, CL, Hay, SI, and Golding, N
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Yellow fever cases are under-reported and the exact distribution of the disease is unknown. An effective vaccine is available but more information is needed about which populations within risk zones should be targeted to implement interventions. Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Brazil, coupled with the global expansion of the range of its main urban vector, Aedes aegypti, suggest that yellow fever has the propensity to spread further internationally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease's contemporary distribution and potential for spread into new areas to help inform optimal control and prevention strategies. METHODS: We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide. FINDINGS: Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vac
Published: 2018

19. Genomic and epidemiological characterisation of a dengue virus outbreak among blood donors in Brazil

Author: Faria, N, da Costa, AC, Lourenco, J, Lopes, ME, Ribeiro, R, Alenca, CS, Kraemer, MUG, Villabona-Arenas, CJ, Wu, CH, Theze, J, Khan, K, Brent, SE, Romano, C, Delwart, E, Custer, B, Busch, MP, Pybus, OG, and Sabino, EC
Subjects: virus diseases
Abstract: Outbreaks caused by Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya viruses can spread rapidly in immunologically naïve populations. By analysing 92 newly generated viral genome sequences from blood donors and recipients, we assess the dynamics of dengue virus serotype 4 during the 2012 outbreak in Rio de Janeiro. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that the outbreak was caused by genotype II, although two isolates of genotype I were also detected for the first time in Rio de Janeiro. Evolutionary analysis and modelling estimates are congruent, indicating a reproduction number above 1 between January and June, and at least two thirds of infections being unnoticed. Modelling analysis suggests that viral transmission started in early January, which is consistent with multiple introductions, most likely from the northern states of Brazil, and with an increase in within-country air travel to Rio de Janeiro. The combination of genetic and epidemiological data from blood donor banks may be useful to anticipate epidemic spread of arboviruses.
Published: 2017

20. Global yellow fever vaccination coverage from 1970 to 2016: an adjusted retrospective analysis

Author: Shearer, FM, Moyes, CL, Pigott, DM, Brady, OJ, Marinho, F, Deshpande, A, Longbottom, J, Browne, AJ, Kraemer, MUG, O'Reilly, KM, Hombach, J, Yactayo, S, de Araujo, VEM, da Nobrega, AA, Mosser, JF, Stanaway, JD, Lim, SS, Hay, SI, Golding, N, Reiner, RC, Shearer, FM, Moyes, CL, Pigott, DM, Brady, OJ, Marinho, F, Deshpande, A, Longbottom, J, Browne, AJ, Kraemer, MUG, O'Reilly, KM, Hombach, J, Yactayo, S, de Araujo, VEM, da Nobrega, AA, Mosser, JF, Stanaway, JD, Lim, SS, Hay, SI, Golding, N, and Reiner, RC
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola and Brazil in the past 2 years, combined with global shortages in vaccine stockpiles, highlight a pressing need to assess present control strategies. The aims of this study were to estimate global yellow fever vaccination coverage from 1970 through to 2016 at high spatial resolution and to calculate the number of individuals still requiring vaccination to reach population coverage thresholds for outbreak prevention. METHODS: For this adjusted retrospective analysis, we compiled data from a range of sources (eg, WHO reports and health-service-provider registeries) reporting on yellow fever vaccination activities between May 1, 1939, and Oct 29, 2016. To account for uncertainty in how vaccine campaigns were targeted, we calculated three population coverage values to encompass alternative scenarios. We combined these data with demographic information and tracked vaccination coverage through time to estimate the proportion of the population who had ever received a yellow fever vaccine for each second level administrative division across countries at risk of yellow fever virus transmission from 1970 to 2016. FINDINGS: Overall, substantial increases in vaccine coverage have occurred since 1970, but notable gaps still exist in contemporary coverage within yellow fever risk zones. We estimate that between 393·7 million and 472·9 million people still require vaccination in areas at risk of yellow fever virus transmission to achieve the 80% population coverage threshold recommended by WHO; this represents between 43% and 52% of the population within yellow fever risk zones, compared with between 66% and 76% of the population who would have required vaccination in 1970. INTERPRETATION: Our results highlight important gaps in yellow fever vaccination coverage, can contribute to improved quantification of outbreak risk, and help to guide planning of future vaccination efforts and emergency stockpiling. FUNDING: The Rhod
Published: 2017

21. Spread of yellow fever virus outbreak in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2015-16: a modelling study

Author: Kraemer, MUG, Faria, NR, Reiner, RC, Golding, N, Nikolay, B, Stasse, S, Johansson, MA, Salje, H, Faye, O, Wint, GRW, Niedrig, M, Shearer, FM, Hill, SC, Thompson, RN, Bisanzio, D, Taveira, N, Nax, HH, Pradelski, BSR, Nsoesie, EO, Murphy, NR, Bogoch, II, Khan, K, Brownstein, JS, Tatem, AJ, de Oliveira, T, Smith, DL, Sall, AA, Pybus, OG, Hay, SI, Cauchemez, S, Kraemer, MUG, Faria, NR, Reiner, RC, Golding, N, Nikolay, B, Stasse, S, Johansson, MA, Salje, H, Faye, O, Wint, GRW, Niedrig, M, Shearer, FM, Hill, SC, Thompson, RN, Bisanzio, D, Taveira, N, Nax, HH, Pradelski, BSR, Nsoesie, EO, Murphy, NR, Bogoch, II, Khan, K, Brownstein, JS, Tatem, AJ, de Oliveira, T, Smith, DL, Sall, AA, Pybus, OG, Hay, SI, and Cauchemez, S
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Since late 2015, an epidemic of yellow fever has caused more than 7334 suspected cases in Angola and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, including 393 deaths. We sought to understand the spatial spread of this outbreak to optimise the use of the limited available vaccine stock. METHODS: We jointly analysed datasets describing the epidemic of yellow fever, vector suitability, human demography, and mobility in central Africa to understand and predict the spread of yellow fever virus. We used a standard logistic model to infer the district-specific yellow fever virus infection risk during the course of the epidemic in the region. FINDINGS: The early spread of yellow fever virus was characterised by fast exponential growth (doubling time of 5-7 days) and fast spatial expansion (49 districts reported cases after only 3 months) from Luanda, the capital of Angola. Early invasion was positively correlated with high population density (Pearson's r 0·52, 95% CI 0·34-0·66). The further away locations were from Luanda, the later the date of invasion (Pearson's r 0·60, 95% CI 0·52-0·66). In a Cox model, we noted that districts with higher population densities also had higher risks of sustained transmission (the hazard ratio for cases ceasing was 0·74, 95% CI 0·13-0·92 per log-unit increase in the population size of a district). A model that captured human mobility and vector suitability successfully discriminated districts with high risk of invasion from others with a lower risk (area under the curve 0·94, 95% CI 0·92-0·97). If at the start of the epidemic, sufficient vaccines had been available to target 50 out of 313 districts in the area, our model would have correctly identified 27 (84%) of the 32 districts that were eventually affected. INTERPRETATION: Our findings show the contributions of ecological and demographic factors to the ongoing spread of the yellow fever outbreak and provide estimates of the areas that could be prioritised for vaccination, although
Published: 2017

22. Epidemiological and ecological determinants of Zika virus transmission in an urban setting

Author: Lourenço, J, primary, Maia de Lima, M, additional, Faria, NR, additional, Walker, A, additional, Kraemer, MUG, additional, Villabona-Arenas, CJ, additional, Lambert, B, additional, Marques de Cerqueira, E, additional, Pybus, OG, additional, Alcantara, LCJ, additional, and Recker, M, additional
Published: 2017
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23. Mapping global environmental suitability for Zika virus

Author: Messina, JP, Kraemer, MUG, Brady, OJ, Pigott, DM, Shearer, FM, Weiss, DJ, Golding, N, Ruktanonchar, CW, Gething, PW, Cohn, E, Brownstein, JS, Khan, K, Tatem, AJ, Jaenisch, T, Murray, CJL, Marinho, F, Scott, TW, Hay, SI, Messina, JP, Kraemer, MUG, Brady, OJ, Pigott, DM, Shearer, FM, Weiss, DJ, Golding, N, Ruktanonchar, CW, Gething, PW, Cohn, E, Brownstein, JS, Khan, K, Tatem, AJ, Jaenisch, T, Murray, CJL, Marinho, F, Scott, TW, and Hay, SI
Abstract: Zika virus was discovered in Uganda in 1947 and is transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which also act as vectors for dengue and chikungunya viruses throughout much of the tropical world. In 2007, an outbreak in the Federated States of Micronesia sparked public health concern. In 2013, the virus began to spread across other parts of Oceania and in 2015, a large outbreak in Latin America began in Brazil. Possible associations with microcephaly and Guillain-Barré syndrome observed in this outbreak have raised concerns about continued global spread of Zika virus, prompting its declaration as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. We conducted species distribution modelling to map environmental suitability for Zika. We show a large portion of tropical and sub-tropical regions globally have suitable environmental conditions with over 2.17 billion people inhabiting these areas.
Published: 2016

24. Updates to the zoonotic niche map of Ebola virus disease in Africa

Author: Pigott, DM, Millear, AI, Earl, L, Morozoff, C, Han, BA, Shearer, FM, Weiss, DJ, Brady, OJ, Kraemer, MUG, Moyes, CL, Bhatt, S, Gething, PW, Golding, N, Hay, SI, Pigott, DM, Millear, AI, Earl, L, Morozoff, C, Han, BA, Shearer, FM, Weiss, DJ, Brady, OJ, Kraemer, MUG, Moyes, CL, Bhatt, S, Gething, PW, Golding, N, and Hay, SI
Abstract: As the outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa is now contained, attention is turning from control to future outbreak prediction and prevention. Building on a previously published zoonotic niche map (Pigott et al., 2014), this study incorporates new human and animal occurrence data and expands upon the way in which potential bat EVD reservoir species are incorporated. This update demonstrates the potential for incorporating and updating data used to generate the predicted suitability map. A new data portal for sharing such maps is discussed. This output represents the most up-to-date estimate of the extent of EVD zoonotic risk in Africa. These maps can assist in strengthening surveillance and response capacity to contain viral haemorrhagic fevers.
Published: 2016

25. The global compendium of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus occurrence

Author: Kraemer, MUG, Sinka, ME, Duda, KA, Mylne, A, Shearer, FM, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Barker, CM, Moore, CG, Carvalho, RG, Coelho, GE, Van Bortel, W, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Wint, GRW, Elyazar, IRF, Teng, H-J, Hay, SI, Kraemer, MUG, Sinka, ME, Duda, KA, Mylne, A, Shearer, FM, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Barker, CM, Moore, CG, Carvalho, RG, Coelho, GE, Van Bortel, W, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Wint, GRW, Elyazar, IRF, Teng, H-J, and Hay, SI
Abstract: Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus are the main vectors transmitting dengue and chikungunya viruses. Despite being pathogens of global public health importance, knowledge of their vectors' global distribution remains patchy and sparse. A global geographic database of known occurrences of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus between 1960 and 2014 was compiled. Herein we present the database, which comprises occurrence data linked to point or polygon locations, derived from peer-reviewed literature and unpublished studies including national entomological surveys and expert networks. We describe all data collection processes, as well as geo-positioning methods, database management and quality-control procedures. This is the first comprehensive global database of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus occurrence, consisting of 19,930 and 22,137 geo-positioned occurrence records respectively. Both datasets can be used for a variety of mapping and spatial analyses of the vectors and, by inference, the diseases they transmit.
Published: 2015

26. The global distribution of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus

Author: Kraemer, MUG, Sinka, ME, Duda, KA, Mylne, AQN, Shearer, FM, Barker, CM, Moore, CG, Carvalho, RG, Coelho, GE, Van Bortel, W, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Elyazar, IRF, Teng, H-J, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Pigott, DM, Scott, TW, Smith, DL, Wint, GRW, Golding, N, Hay, SI, Kraemer, MUG, Sinka, ME, Duda, KA, Mylne, AQN, Shearer, FM, Barker, CM, Moore, CG, Carvalho, RG, Coelho, GE, Van Bortel, W, Hendrickx, G, Schaffner, F, Elyazar, IRF, Teng, H-J, Brady, OJ, Messina, JP, Pigott, DM, Scott, TW, Smith, DL, Wint, GRW, Golding, N, and Hay, SI
Abstract: Dengue and chikungunya are increasing global public health concerns due to their rapid geographical spread and increasing disease burden. Knowledge of the contemporary distribution of their shared vectors, Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus remains incomplete and is complicated by an ongoing range expansion fuelled by increased global trade and travel. Mapping the global distribution of these vectors and the geographical determinants of their ranges is essential for public health planning. Here we compile the largest contemporary database for both species and pair it with relevant environmental variables predicting their global distribution. We show Aedes distributions to be the widest ever recorded; now extensive in all continents, including North America and Europe. These maps will help define the spatial limits of current autochthonous transmission of dengue and chikungunya viruses. It is only with this kind of rigorous entomological baseline that we can hope to project future health impacts of these viruses.
Published: 2015

27. Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa

Author: Pigott, DM, Golding, N, Mylne, A, Huang, Z, Weiss, DJ, Brady, OJ, Kraemer, MUG, Hay, SI, Pigott, DM, Golding, N, Mylne, A, Huang, Z, Weiss, DJ, Brady, OJ, Kraemer, MUG, and Hay, SI
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Marburg virus disease (MVD) describes a viral haemorrhagic fever responsible for a number of outbreaks across eastern and southern Africa. It is a zoonotic disease, with the Egyptian rousette (Rousettus aegyptiacus) identified as a reservoir host. Infection is suspected to result from contact between this reservoir and human populations, with occasional secondary human-to-human transmission. METHODS: Index cases of previous human outbreaks were identified and reports of infection in animals recorded. These data were modelled within a species distribution modelling framework in order to generate a probabilistic surface of zoonotic transmission potential of MVD across sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Areas suitable for zoonotic transmission of MVD are predicted in 27 countries inhabited by 105 million people. Regions are suggested for exploratory surveys to better characterise the geographical distribution of the disease, as well as for directing efforts to communicate the risk of practices enhancing zoonotic contact. CONCLUSIONS: These maps can inform future contingency and preparedness strategies for MVD control, especially where secondary transmission is a risk. Coupling this risk map with patient travel histories could be used to guide the differential diagnosis of highly transmissible pathogens, enabling more rapid response to outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever.
Published: 2015

28. Emergence and potential for spread of Chikungunya virus in Brazil

Author: Teixeira Nunes, MR, Faria, NR, de Vasconcelos, JM, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, de Oliveira, LF, da Silva Azevedo, RDS, Andrade da Silva, DE, Pinto da Silva, EV, da Silva, SP, Carvalho, VL, Coelho, GE, Ribeiro Cruz, AC, Rodrigues, SG, da Silva Goncalves Vianez, JL, Diniz Nunes, BT, Cardoso, JF, Tesh, RB, Hay, SI, Pybus, OG, da Costa Vasconcelos, PF, Teixeira Nunes, MR, Faria, NR, de Vasconcelos, JM, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, de Oliveira, LF, da Silva Azevedo, RDS, Andrade da Silva, DE, Pinto da Silva, EV, da Silva, SP, Carvalho, VL, Coelho, GE, Ribeiro Cruz, AC, Rodrigues, SG, da Silva Goncalves Vianez, JL, Diniz Nunes, BT, Cardoso, JF, Tesh, RB, Hay, SI, Pybus, OG, and da Costa Vasconcelos, PF
Abstract: BACKGROUND: In December 2013, an outbreak of Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) caused by the Asian genotype was notified in the Caribbean. The outbreak has since spread to 38 regions in the Americas. By September 2014, the first autochthonous CHIKV infections were confirmed in Oiapoque, North Brazil, and in Feira de Santana, Northeast Brazil. METHODS: We compiled epidemiological and clinical data on suspected CHIKV cases in Brazil and polymerase-chain-reaction-based diagnostic was conducted on 68 serum samples from patients with symptom onset between April and September 2014. Two imported and four autochthonous cases were selected for virus propagation, RNA isolation, full-length genome sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis. We then followed CDC/PAHO guidelines to estimate the risk of establishment of CHIKV in Brazilian municipalities. RESULTS: We detected 41 CHIKV importations and 27 autochthonous cases in Brazil. Epidemiological and phylogenetic analyses indicated local transmission of the Asian CHIKV genotype in Oiapoque. Unexpectedly, we also discovered that the ECSA genotype is circulating in Feira de Santana. The presumed index case of the ECSA genotype was an individual who had recently returned from Angola and developed symptoms in Feira de Santana. We estimate that, if CHIKV becomes established in Brazil, transmission could occur in 94% of municipalities in the country and provide maps of the risk of importation of each strain of CHIKV in Brazil. CONCLUSIONS: The etiological strains associated with the early-phase CHIKV outbreaks in Brazil belong to the Asian and ECSA genotypes. Continued surveillance and vector mitigation strategies are needed to reduce the future public health impact of CHIKV in the Americas.
Published: 2015

29. Mapping the zoonotic niche of Ebola virus disease in Africa

Author: Pigott, DM, Golding, N, Mylne, A, Huang, Z, Henry, AJ, Weiss, DJ, Brady, OJ, Kraemer, MUG, Smith, DL, Moyes, CL, Bhatt, S, Gething, PW, Horby, PW, Bogoch, II, Brownstein, JS, Mekaru, SR, Tatem, AJ, Khan, K, Hay, SI, Pigott, DM, Golding, N, Mylne, A, Huang, Z, Henry, AJ, Weiss, DJ, Brady, OJ, Kraemer, MUG, Smith, DL, Moyes, CL, Bhatt, S, Gething, PW, Horby, PW, Bogoch, II, Brownstein, JS, Mekaru, SR, Tatem, AJ, Khan, K, and Hay, SI
Abstract: Ebola virus disease (EVD) is a complex zoonosis that is highly virulent in humans. The largest recorded outbreak of EVD is ongoing in West Africa, outside of its previously reported and predicted niche. We assembled location data on all recorded zoonotic transmission to humans and Ebola virus infection in bats and primates (1976-2014). Using species distribution models, these occurrence data were paired with environmental covariates to predict a zoonotic transmission niche covering 22 countries across Central and West Africa. Vegetation, elevation, temperature, evapotranspiration, and suspected reservoir bat distributions define this relationship. At-risk areas are inhabited by 22 million people; however, the rarity of human outbreaks emphasises the very low probability of transmission to humans. Increasing population sizes and international connectivity by air since the first detection of EVD in 1976 suggest that the dynamics of human-to-human secondary transmission in contemporary outbreaks will be very different to those of the past.
Published: 2014

30. Global temperature constraints on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission

Author: Brady, OJ, Golding, N, Pigott, DM, Kraemer, MUG, Messina, JP, Reiner, RC, Scott, TW, Smith, DL, Gething, PW, Hay, SI, Brady, OJ, Golding, N, Pigott, DM, Kraemer, MUG, Messina, JP, Reiner, RC, Scott, TW, Smith, DL, Gething, PW, and Hay, SI
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Dengue is a disease that has undergone significant expansion over the past hundred years. Understanding what factors limit the distribution of transmission can be used to predict current and future limits to further dengue expansion. While not the only factor, temperature plays an important role in defining these limits. Previous attempts to analyse the effect of temperature on the geographic distribution of dengue have not considered its dynamic intra-annual and diurnal change and its cumulative effects on mosquito and virus populations. METHODS: Here we expand an existing modelling framework with new temperature-based relationships to model an index proportional to the basic reproductive number of the dengue virus. This model framework is combined with high spatial and temporal resolution global temperature data to model the effects of temperature on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission. RESULTS: Our model predicted areas where temperature is not expected to permit transmission and/or Aedes persistence throughout the year. By reanalysing existing experimental data our analysis indicates that Ae. albopictus, often considered a minor vector of dengue, has comparable rates of virus dissemination to its primary vector, Ae. aegypti, and when the longer lifespan of Ae. albopictus is considered its competence for dengue virus transmission far exceeds that of Ae. aegypti. CONCLUSIONS: These results can be used to analyse the effects of temperature and other contributing factors on the expansion of dengue or its Aedes vectors. Our finding that Ae. albopictus has a greater capacity for dengue transmission than Ae. aegypti is contrary to current explanations for the comparative rarity of dengue transmission in established Ae. albopictus populations. This suggests that the limited capacity of Ae. albopictus to transmit DENV is more dependent on its ecology than vector competence. The recommendations, which we ex
Published: 2014

31. A comprehensive database of the geographic spread of past human Ebola outbreaks

Author: Mylne, A, Brady, OJ, Huang, Z, Pigott, DM, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, Hay, SI, Mylne, A, Brady, OJ, Huang, Z, Pigott, DM, Golding, N, Kraemer, MUG, and Hay, SI
Abstract: Ebola is a zoonotic filovirus that has the potential to cause outbreaks of variable magnitude in human populations. This database collates our existing knowledge of all known human outbreaks of Ebola for the first time by extracting details of their suspected zoonotic origin and subsequent human-to-human spread from a range of published and non-published sources. In total, 22 unique Ebola outbreaks were identified, composed of 117 unique geographic transmission clusters. Details of the index case and geographic spread of secondary and imported cases were recorded as well as summaries of patient numbers and case fatality rates. A brief text summary describing suspected routes and means of spread for each outbreak was also included. While we cannot yet include the ongoing Guinea and DRC outbreaks until they are over, these data and compiled maps can be used to gain an improved understanding of the initial spread of past Ebola outbreaks and help evaluate surveillance and control guidelines for limiting the spread of future epidemics.
Published: 2014

32. Existing and potential infection risk zones of yellow fever worldwide: a modelling analysis

Author: Shearer, FM, Longbottom, J, Browne, AJ, Pigott, DM, Brady, OJ, Kraemer, MUG, Marinho, F, Yactayo, S, de Araujo, VEM, da Nobrega, AA, Fullman, N, Ray, SE, Mosser, JF, Stanaway, JD, Lim, SS, Reiner, RC, Moyes, CL, Hay, SI, and Golding, N
Abstract: BACKGROUND: Yellow fever cases are under-reported and the exact distribution of the disease is unknown. An effective vaccine is available but more information is needed about which populations within risk zones should be targeted to implement interventions. Substantial outbreaks of yellow fever in Angola, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and Brazil, coupled with the global expansion of the range of its main urban vector, Aedes aegypti, suggest that yellow fever has the propensity to spread further internationally. The aim of this study was to estimate the disease's contemporary distribution and potential for spread into new areas to help inform optimal control and prevention strategies. METHODS: We assembled 1155 geographical records of yellow fever virus infection in people from 1970 to 2016. We used a Poisson point process boosted regression tree model that explicitly incorporated environmental and biological explanatory covariates, vaccination coverage, and spatial variability in disease reporting rates to predict the relative risk of apparent yellow fever virus infection at a 5 × 5 km resolution across all risk zones (47 countries across the Americas and Africa). We also used the fitted model to predict the receptivity of areas outside at-risk zones to the introduction or reintroduction of yellow fever transmission. By use of previously published estimates of annual national case numbers, we used the model to map subnational variation in incidence of yellow fever across at-risk countries and to estimate the number of cases averted by vaccination worldwide. FINDINGS: Substantial international and subnational spatial variation exists in relative risk and incidence of yellow fever as well as varied success of vaccination in reducing incidence in several high-risk regions, including Brazil, Cameroon, and Togo. Areas with the highest predicted average annual case numbers include large parts of Nigeria, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, and South Sudan, where vaccination coverage in 2016 was estimated to be substantially less than the recommended threshold to prevent outbreaks. Overall, we estimated that vaccination coverage levels achieved by 2016 avert between 94 336 and 118 500 cases of yellow fever annually within risk zones, on the basis of conservative and optimistic vaccination scenarios. The areas outside at-risk regions with predicted high receptivity to yellow fever transmission (eg, parts of Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand) were less extensive than the distribution of the main urban vector, A aegypti, with low receptivity to yellow fever transmission in southern China, where A aegypti is known to occur. INTERPRETATION: Our results provide the evidence base for targeting vaccination campaigns within risk zones, as well as emphasising their high effectiveness. Our study highlights areas where public health authorities should be most vigilant for potential spread or importation events. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

33. Genomic reconstruction of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England

Author: Vöhringer, HS, Sanderson, T, Sinnott, M, De Maio, N, Nguyen, T, Goater, R, Schwach, F, Harrison, I, Hellewell, J, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Jackson, DK, Johnston, I, Jung, AW, Saint, C, Sillitoe, J, Suciu, M, Goldman, N, Panovska-Griffiths, J, Abnizova, I, Aigrain, L, Alderton, A, Ali, M, Allen, L, Amato, R, Anderson, R, Ariani, C, Austin-Guest, S, Bala, S, Barrett, J, Bassett, A, Battleday, K, Beal, J, Beale, M, Beaver, C, Bellany, S, Bellerby, T, Bellis, K, Berger, D, Berriman, M, Betteridge, E, Bevan, P, Binley, S, Bishop, J, Blackburn, K, Bonfield, J, Boughton, N, Bowker, S, Brendler-Spaeth, T, Bronner, I, Brooklyn, T, Buddenborg, SK, Bush, R, Caetano, C, Cagan, A, Carter, N, Cartwright, J, Monteiro, TC, Chapman, L, Chillingworth, TJ, Clapham, P, Clark, R, Clarke, A, Clarke, C, Cole, D, Cook, E, Coppola, M, Cornell, L, Cornwell, C, Corton, C, Crackett, A, Cranage, A, Craven, H, Craw, S, Crawford, M, Cutts, T, Dabrowska, M, Davies, M, Davies, R, Dawson, J, Day, C, Densem, A, Dibling, T, Dockree, C, Dodd, D, Dogga, S, Dorman, M, Dougan, G, Dougherty, M, Dove, A, Drummond, L, Drury, E, Dudek, M, Durham, J, Durrant, L, Easthope, E, Eckert, S, Ellis, P, Farr, B, Fenton, M, Ferrero, M, Flack, N, Fordham, H, Forsythe, G, Foulser, L, Francis, M, Fraser, A, Freeman, A, Galvin, A, Garcia-Casado, M, Gedny, A, Girgis, S, Glover, J, Goncalves, S, Goodwin, S, Gould, O, Gourtovaia, M, Gray, A, Gray, E, Griffiths, C, Gu, Y, Guerin, F, Hamilton, W, Hanks, H, Harrison, E, Harrott, A, Harry, E, Harvison, J, Heath, P, Hernandez-Koutoucheva, A, Hobbs, R, Holland, D, Holmes, S, Hornett, G, Hough, N, Huckle, L, Hughes-Hallet, L, Hunter, A, Inglis, S, Iqbal, S, Jackson, A, Jackson, D, James, K, Jamrozy, D, Verdejo, CJ, Jones, M, Kallepally, K, Kane, L, Kay, K, Kay, S, Keatley, J, Keith, A, King, A, Kitchin, L, Kleanthous, M, Klimekova, M, Korlevic, P, Krasheninnkova, K, Lane, G, Langford, C, Laverack, A, Law, K, Lawniczak, M, Lensing, S, Leonard, S, Letchford, L, Lewis, K, Lewis-Wade, A, Liddle, J, Lin, Q, Lindsay, S, Linsdell, S, Livett, R, Lo, S, Long, R, Lovell, J, Ludden, C, Mack, J, Maddison, M, Makunin, A, Mamun, I, Mansfield, J, Marriott, N, Martin, M, Mayho, M, McCarthy, S, McClintock, J, McGuigan, S, McHugh, S, McMinn, L, Meadows, C, Mobley, E, Moll, R, Morra, M, Morrow, L, Murie, K, Nash, S, Nathwani, C, Naydenova, P, Neaverson, A, Nelson, R, Nerou, E, Nicholson, J, Nimz, T, Noell, GG, O’Meara, S, Ohan, V, Oliver, K, Olney, C, Ormond, D, Oszlanczi, A, Palmer, S, Pang, YF, Pardubska, B, Park, N, Parmar, A, Patel, G, Patel, M, Payne, M, Peacock, S, Petersen, A, Plowman, D, Preston, T, Prestwood, L, Puethe, C, Quail, M, Rajan, D, Rajatileka, S, Rance, R, Rawlings, S, Redshaw, N, Reynolds, J, Reynolds, M, Rice, S, Richardson, M, Roberts, C, Robinson, K, Robinson, M, Robinson, D, Rogers, H, Rojo, EM, Roopra, D, Rose, M, Rudd, L, Sadri, R, Salmon, N, Saul, D, Scott, C, Seekings, P, Shirley, L, Simms, A, Sivadasan, S, Siwek, B, Sizer, D, Skeldon, K, Skelton, J, Slater-Tunstill, J, Sloper, L, Smerdon, N, Smith, C, Smith, J, Smith, K, Smith, M, Smith, S, Smith, T, Sneade, L, Soria, CD, Sousa, C, Souster, E, Sparkes, A, Spencer-Chapman, M, Squares, J, Stanley, R, Steed, C, Stickland, T, Still, I, Stratton, MR, Strickland, M, Swann, A, Swiatkowska, A, Sycamore, N, Swift, E, Symons, E, Szluha, S, Taluy, E, Tao, N, Taylor, K, Taylor, S, Thompson, S, Thompson, M, Thomson, M, Thomson, N, Thurston, S, Tonkin-Hill, G, Toombs, D, Topping, B, Tovar-Corona, J, Ungureanu, D, Uphill, J, Urbanova, J, Van Vuuren, PJ, Vancollie, V, Voak, P, Walker, D, Walker, M, Waller, M, Ward, G, Weatherhogg, C, Webb, N, Weldon, D, Wells, A, Wells, E, Westwood, L, Whipp, T, Whiteley, T, Whitton, G, Whitwham, A, Widaa, S, Williams, M, Wilson, M, Wright, S, Robson, SC, Connor, TR, Loman, NJ, Golubchik, T, Martinez Nunez, RT, Bonsall, D, Rambaut, A, Snell, LB, Corden, S, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Lythgoe, K, Torok, ME, Goodfellow, IG, Prieto, JA, Saeed, K, Houlihan, C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Thomson, EC, Harrison, EM, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, P, Jackson, LM, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Aggarwal, D, Shepherd, JG, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Carabelli, AM, Templeton, KE, de Silva, TI, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O’Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, D, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Holden, MTG, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, S, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, D, Robertson, DL, Page, AJ, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Spencer Chapman, MH, Dewar, R, McHugh, MP, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, C, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Harvey, WT, Hughes, J, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O’Toole, Á, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, J, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Peacock, SJ, Heyburn, D, Kitchman, K, McNally, A, Pritchard, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Catalan, J, Jones, N, da Silva Filipe, A, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, A, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Randell, PA, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, 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Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Goldstein, EJ, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Pascall, D, Vattipally, S, Freeman, TM, Hsu, SN, Lindsey, BB, Tovar-Corona, JM, Cox, MG, Abudahab, K, Menegazzo, M, Taylor, BEW, Yeats, CA, Mukaddas, A, Wright, DW, de Oliveira Martins, L, Colquhoun, R, Hill, V, Jackson, B, McCrone, JT, Medd, N, Scher, E, Keatley, JP, Curran, T, Morgan, S, Maxwell, P, Eldirdiri, S, Kenyon, A, Holmes, AH, Price, JR, Wyatt, T, Mather, AE, Skvortsov, T, Hartley, JA, Guest, M, Kitchen, C, Merrick, I, Munn, R, Bertolusso, B, Lynch, J, Vernet, G, Kirk, S, Wastnedge, E, Idle, G, Bradley, DT, Poyner, J, Mori, M, Jones, O, Wright, V, Brooks, E, Churcher, CM, Fragakis, M, Galai, K, Jermy, A, Judges, S, McManus, GM, Smith, KS, Westwick, E, Attwood, SW, Bolt, F, Davies, A, De Lacy, E, Downing, F, Edwards, S, Meadows, L, Jeremiah, S, Smith, N, Charalampous, T, Patel, A, Berry, L, Boswell, T, Fleming, VM, Howson-Wells, HC, Joseph, A, Khakh, M, Lister, MM, Bird, PW, Fallon, K, Helmer, T, McMurray, CL, Odedra, M, Shaw, J, Tang, JW, Willford, NJ, Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, LA, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Alcolea, A, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, El Bouzidi, K, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Blacow, R, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, 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C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Thomson, EC, Harrison, EM, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, P, Jackson, LM, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Aggarwal, D, Shepherd, JG, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Carabelli, AM, Templeton, KE, de Silva, TI, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O’Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, D, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Holden, MTG, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, S, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, D, Robertson, DL, Page, AJ, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Spencer Chapman, MH, Dewar, R, McHugh, MP, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, C, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Harvey, WT, Hughes, J, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O’Toole, Á, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, J, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Peacock, SJ, Heyburn, D, Kitchman, K, McNally, A, Pritchard, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Catalan, J, Jones, N, da Silva Filipe, A, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, A, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Randell, PA, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, Swindells, E, Turnbull, R, Sloan, TJ, Bosworth, A, Hutchings, S, Pymont, HM, Casey, A, Ratcliffe, L, Jones, CR, Knight, BA, Haque, T, Hart, J, Irish-Tavares, D, Witele, E, Mower, C, Watson, LK, Collins, J, Eltringham, G, Crudgington, D, Macklin, B, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Lucaci, AO, McClure, PC, Carlile, M, Holmes, N, Storey, N, Rooke, S, Yebra, G, Craine, N, Perry, M, Alikhan, NF, Bridgett, S, Cook, KF, Fearn, C, Goudarzi, S, Lyons, RA, Williams, T, Haldenby, ST, Davies, RM, Batra, R, Blane, B, Spyer, MJ, Smith, P, Yavus, M, Williams, RJ, Mahanama, AIK, Samaraweera, B, Girgis, ST, Hansford, SE, Green, A, Bellis, KL, Dorman, MJ, Quick, J, Poplawski, R, Reynolds, N, Mack, A, Morriss, A, Whalley, T, Patel, B, Georgana, I, Hosmillo, M, Pinckert, ML, Stockton, J, Henderson, JH, Hollis, A, Stanley, W, Yew, WC, Myers, R, Thornton, A, Adams, A, Annett, T, Asad, H, Birchley, A, Coombes, J, Evans, JM, Fina, L, Gatica-Wilcox, B, Gilbert, L, Graham, L, Hey, J, Hilvers, E, Jones, S, Jones, H, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Goldstein, EJ, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Pascall, D, Vattipally, S, Freeman, TM, Hsu, SN, Lindsey, BB, Tovar-Corona, JM, Cox, MG, Abudahab, K, Menegazzo, M, Taylor, BEW, Yeats, CA, Mukaddas, A, Wright, DW, de Oliveira Martins, L, Colquhoun, R, Hill, V, Jackson, B, McCrone, JT, Medd, N, Scher, E, Keatley, JP, Curran, T, Morgan, S, Maxwell, P, Eldirdiri, S, Kenyon, A, Holmes, AH, Price, JR, Wyatt, T, Mather, AE, Skvortsov, T, Hartley, JA, Guest, M, Kitchen, C, Merrick, I, Munn, R, Bertolusso, B, Lynch, J, Vernet, G, Kirk, S, Wastnedge, E, Idle, G, Bradley, DT, Poyner, J, Mori, M, Jones, O, Wright, V, Brooks, E, Churcher, CM, Fragakis, M, Galai, K, Jermy, A, Judges, S, McManus, GM, Smith, KS, Westwick, E, Attwood, SW, Bolt, F, Davies, A, De Lacy, E, Downing, F, Edwards, S, Meadows, L, Jeremiah, S, Smith, N, Charalampous, T, Patel, A, Berry, L, Boswell, T, Fleming, VM, Howson-Wells, HC, Joseph, A, Khakh, M, Lister, MM, Bird, PW, Fallon, K, Helmer, T, McMurray, CL, Odedra, M, Shaw, J, Tang, JW, Willford, NJ, Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, LA, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Alcolea, A, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, El Bouzidi, K, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Blacow, R, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, C, Chalker, V, Gifford, L, Molnar, Z, Auckland, C, Evans, C, Johnson, K, Partridge, DG, Raza, M, Baker, P, Bonner, S, Essex, S, Murray, LJ, Lawton, AI, Burton-Fanning, S, Payne, BAI, Waugh, S, Gomes, AN, Kimuli, M, Murray, DR, Ashfield, P, Dobie, D, Ashford, F, Best, A, Crawford, L, Cumley, N, Mayhew, M, Megram, O, Mirza, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Percival, B, Ensell, L, Lowe, HL, Maftei, L, Mondani, M, Chaloner, NJ, Cogger, BJ, Easton, LJ, Huckson, H, Lewis, J, Lowdon, S, Malone, CS, Munemo, F, Mutingwende, M, Nicodemi, R, Podplomyk, O, Somassa, T, Beggs, A, Richter, A, Cormie, C, Dias, J, Forrest, S, Higginson, EE, Maes, M, Young, J, Davidson, RK, Jackson, KA, Turtle, L, Keeley, AJ, Ball, J, Byaruhanga, T, Chappell, JG, Dey, J, Hill, JD, Park, EJ, Fanaie, A, Hilson, RA, Yaze, G, Afifi, S, Beer, R, Maksimovic, J, Masters, KMC, Spellman, K, Bresner, C, Fuller, W, Marchbank, A, Workman, T, Shelest, E, Debebe, J, Sang, F, Zamudio, ME, Francois, S, Gutierrez, B, Vasylyeva, TI, Flaviani, F, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Smollett, KL, Broos, A, Mair, D, Nichols, J, Nomikou, K, Tong, L, Tsatsani, I, O’Brien, S, Rushton, S, Sanderson, R, Perkins, J, Cotton, S, Gallagher, A, Allara, E, Pearson, C, Bibby, D, Dabrera, G, Ellaby, N, Gallagher, E, Hubb, J, Lackenby, A, Lee, D, Manesis, N, Mbisa, T, Platt, S, Twohig, KA, Morgan, M, Aydin, A, Baker, DJ, Foster-Nyarko, E, Prosolek, SJ, Rudder, S, Baxter, C, Carvalho, SF, Lavin, D, Mariappan, A, Radulescu, C, Singh, A, Tang, M, Morcrette, H, Bayzid, N, Cotic, M, Balcazar, CE, Gallagher, MD, Maloney, D, Stanton, TD, Williamson, KA, Manley, R, Michelsen, ML, Sambles, CM, Studholme, DJ, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Eccles, R, Gemmell, M, Gregory, R, Hughes, M, Nelson, C, Rainbow, L, Vamos, EE, Webster, HJ, Whitehead, M, Wierzbicki, C, Angyal, A, Green, LR, Whiteley, M, Bronner, IF, Farr, BW, Lensing, SV, McCarthy, SA, Quail, MA, Redshaw, NM, Thurston, SAJ, Rowe, W, Gaskin, A, Le-Viet, T, Birney, E, Volz, E, Funk, S, Martincorena, I, Barrett, JC, and Gerstung, M
Abstract: The evolution of the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus leads to new variants that warrant timely epidemiological characterization. Here we use the dense genomic surveillance data generated by the COVID-19 Genomics UK Consortium to reconstruct the dynamics of 71 different lineages in each of 315 English local authorities between September 2020 and June 2021. This analysis reveals a series of subepidemics that peaked in early autumn 2020, followed by a jump in transmissibility of the B.1.1.7/Alpha lineage. The Alpha variant grew when other lineages declined during the second national lockdown and regionally tiered restrictions between November and December 2020. A third more stringent national lockdown suppressed the Alpha variant and eliminated nearly all other lineages in early 2021. Yet a series of variants (most of which contained the spike E484K mutation) defied these trends and persisted at moderately increasing proportions. However, by accounting for sustained introductions, we found that the transmissibility of these variants is unlikely to have exceeded the transmissibility of the Alpha variant. Finally, B.1.617.2/Delta was repeatedly introduced in England and grew rapidly in early summer 2021, constituting approximately 98% of sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes on 26 June 2021.

34. Investigation of hospital discharge cases and SARS-CoV-2 introduction into Lothian care homes

Author: Cotton, S, McHugh, MP, Dewar, R, Haas, JG, Templeton, K, Robson, SC, Connor, TR, Loman, NJ, Golubchik, T, Martinez Nunez, RT, Bonsall, D, Rambaut, A, Snell, LB, Livett, R, Ludden, C, Corden, S, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Johnston, I, Prieto, JA, Saeed, K, Jackson, DK, Houlihan, C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Thomson, EC, Cutino-Moguel, T, Harrison, EM, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, P, Jackson, LM, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Amato, R, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Barrett, JC, Kele, B, Aggarwal, D, Shepherd, JG, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Carabelli, AM, Templeton, KE, Peacock, SJ, de Silva, TI, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Sillitoe, J, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O’Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, D, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Holden, MTG, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, S, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, D, Robertson, DL, Page, AJ, Martincorena, I, Aigrain, L, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Spencer Chapman, MH, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, C, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Harvey, WT, Hughes, J, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O'Toole, Á, Gourtovaia, M, Sanderson, T, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, J, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Heyburn, D, Charalampous, T, Alcolea-Medina, A, Kitchman, K, McNal, A, Pritch, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Weldon, D, Catalan, J, Jones, N, da Silva Filipe, A, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Oliver, K, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, Anna, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Randell, PA, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, Swindells, E, Turnbull, R, Sloan, TJ, Bosworth, A, Hutchings, S, Pymont, HM, Casey, A, Ratcliffe, L, Jones, CR, Knight, BA, Haque, T, Hart, J, Irish-Tavares, D, Witele, E, Mower, C, Watson DipHe, LK, Collins, J, Eltringham, G, Crudgington, D, Macklin, B, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Lucaci, AO, McClure, PC, Carlile, M, Holmes, N, Storey, N, Rooke, S, Yebra, G, Craine, N, Perry, M, Alikhan, N, Bridgett, S, Cook, KF, Fearn, C, Goudarzi, S, Lyons, RA, Williams, T, Haldenby, ST, Durham, J, Leonard, S, Davies, RM, Batra, R, Blane, B, Spyer, MJ, Smith, P, Yavus, M, Williams, RJ, Mahanama, AIK, Samaraweera, B, Girgis, ST, Hansford, SE, Green, A, Beaver, C, Bellis, KL, Dorman, MJ, Kay, S, Prestwood, L, Rajatileka, S, Quick, J, Poplawski, R, Reynolds, N, Mack, A, Morriss, A, Whalley, T, Patel, B, Georgana, I, Hosmillo, M, Pinckert, ML, Stockton, J, Henderson, JH, Hollis, A, Stanley, W, Yew, WC, Myers, R, Thornton, A, Adams, A, Annett, T, Asad, H, Birchley, A, Coombes, J, Evans, JM, Fina, L, Gatica-Wilcox, B, Gilbert, L, Graham, L, Hey, J, Hilvers, E, Jones, S, Jones, H, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Taylor, S, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Goldstein, EJ, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Pascall, D, Vattipally, S, Freeman, TM, Hsu, SN, Lindsey, BB, James, K, Lewis, K, Tonkin-Hill, G, Tovar-Corona, JM, Cox, M, Abudahab, K, Menegazzo, M, Taylor, BEW, Yeats, CA, Mukaddas, A, Wright, DW, de Oliveira Martins, L, Colquhoun, R, Hill, V, Jackson, B, McCrone, JT, Medd, N, Scher, E, Keatley, J, Curran, T, Morgan, S, Maxwell, P, Smith, K, Eldirdiri, S, Kenyon, A, Holmes, AH, Price, JR, Wyatt, T, Mather, AE, Skvortsov, T, Hartley, JA, Guest, M, Kitchen, C, Merrick, I, Munn, R, Bertolusso, B, Lynch, J, Vernet, G, Kirk, S, Wastnedge, E, Stanley, R, Idle, G, Bradley, DT, Killough, NF, Poyner, J, Mori, M, Jones, O, Wright, V, Brooks, E, Churcher, CM, Delgado Callico, L, Fragakis, M, Galai, K, Jermy, A, Judges, S, Markov, A, McManus, GM, Smith, KS, Thomas-McEwen, PMD, Westwick, E, Attwood, SW, Bolt, F, Davies, A, De Lacy, E, Downing, F, Edwards, S, Meadows, L, Jeremiah, S, Smith, N, Foulser, L, Patel, A, Berry, L, Boswell, T, Fleming, VM, Howson-Wells, HC, Joseph, A, Khakh, M, Lister, MM, Bird, PW, Fallon, K, Helmer, T, McMurray, CL, Odedra, M, Shaw, J, Tang, JW, Willford, NJ, Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, L, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, El Bouzidi, K, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Blacow, R, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, C, Chalker, V, Harrison, I, Gifford, L, Molnar, Z, Auckland, C, Evans, C, Johnson, K, Partridge, DG, Raza, M, Baker, P, Bonner, S, Essex, S, Murray, LJ, Lawton, AI, Burton-Fanning, S, Payne, BAI, Waugh, S, Gomes, AN, Kimuli, M, Murray, DR, Ashfield, P, Dobie, D, Ashford, F, Best, A, Crawford, L, Cumley, N, Mayhew, M, Megram, O, Mirza, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Percival, B, Driscoll, M, Ensell, L, Lowe, HL, Maftei, L, Mondani, M, Chaloner, NJ, Cogger, BJ, Easton, LJ, Huckson, H, Lewis, J, Lowdon, S, Malone, CS, Munemo, F, Mutingwende, M, Nicodemi, R, Podplomyk Fd, O, Somassa, T, Beggs, A, Richter, A, Cormie, C, Dias, J, Forrest, S, Higginson, EE, Maes, M, Young, J, Davidson, RK, Jackson, KA, Keeley, AJ, Ball, J, Byaruhanga, T, Chappell, JG, Dey, J, Hill, JD, Park, EJ, Fanaie, A, Hilson, RA, Yaze, G, Lo, S, Afifi, S, Beer, R, Maksimovic, J, McCluggage, K, Spellman, K, Bresner, C, Fuller, W, Marchbank, A, Workma, T, Shelest, E, Debebe, J, Sang, F, Francois, S, Gutierrez, B, Vasylyeva, TI, Flaviani, F, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Smollett, KL, Broos, A, Mair, D, Nichols, J, Nomikou, K, Tong, L, Tsatsani, I, O'Brien, S, Rushton, S, Sanderson, R, Perkins, J, Gallagher, A, Allara, E, Pearson, C, Bibby, D, Dabrer, G, Ellaby, N, Gallagher, E, Hubb, J, Lackenby, A, Lee, D, Manesis, N, Mbisa, T, Platt, S, Twohig, KA, Morgan, M, Aydin, A, Baker, DJ, Foster-Nyarko, E, Prosolek, SJ, Rudder, S, Baxter, C, Carvalho, SF, Lavin, D, Mariappan, A, Radulescu, C, Singh, A, Tang, M, Morcrette, H, Bayzid, N, Cotic, M, Balcazar, CE, Gallagher, MD, Maloney, D, Stanton, TD, Williamson, KA, Manley, R, Michelsen, ML, Sambles, CM, Studholme, DJ, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Eccles, R, Gemmell, M, Gregory, R, Hughes, M, Nelson, C, Rainbow, L, Vamos, EE, Webster, HJ, Whitehead, M, Wierzbicki, C, Angyal, A, Green, LR, Whiteley, M, Betteridge, E, Bronner, IF, Farr, BW, Goodwin, S, Lensing, SV, McCarthy, SA, Quail, MA, Rajan, D, Redshaw, NM, Scott, C, Shirley, L, Thurston, SAJ, Rowe, W, Gaskin, A, Le-Viet, T, Bonfield, J, Liddle, J, Whitwham, A, Cotton, S, McHugh, MP, Dewar, R, Haas, JG, Templeton, K, Robson, SC, Connor, TR, Loman, NJ, Golubchik, T, Martinez Nunez, RT, Bonsall, D, Rambaut, A, Snell, LB, Livett, R, Ludden, C, Corden, S, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Johnston, I, Prieto, JA, Saeed, K, Jackson, DK, Houlihan, C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Thomson, EC, Cutino-Moguel, T, Harrison, EM, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, P, Jackson, LM, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Amato, R, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Barrett, JC, Kele, B, Aggarwal, D, Shepherd, JG, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Carabelli, AM, Templeton, KE, Peacock, SJ, de Silva, TI, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Sillitoe, J, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O’Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, D, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Holden, MTG, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, S, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, D, Robertson, DL, Page, AJ, Martincorena, I, Aigrain, L, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Spencer Chapman, MH, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, C, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Harvey, WT, Hughes, J, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O'Toole, Á, Gourtovaia, M, Sanderson, T, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, J, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Heyburn, D, Charalampous, T, Alcolea-Medina, A, Kitchman, K, McNal, A, Pritch, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Weldon, D, Catalan, J, Jones, N, da Silva Filipe, A, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Oliver, K, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, Anna, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Randell, PA, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, Swindells, E, Turnbull, R, Sloan, TJ, Bosworth, A, Hutchings, S, Pymont, HM, Casey, A, Ratcliffe, L, Jones, CR, Knight, BA, Haque, T, Hart, J, Irish-Tavares, D, Witele, E, Mower, C, Watson DipHe, LK, Collins, J, Eltringham, G, Crudgington, D, Macklin, B, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Lucaci, AO, McClure, PC, Carlile, M, Holmes, N, Storey, N, Rooke, S, Yebra, G, Craine, N, Perry, M, Alikhan, N, Bridgett, S, Cook, KF, Fearn, C, Goudarzi, S, Lyons, RA, Williams, T, Haldenby, ST, Durham, J, Leonard, S, Davies, RM, Batra, R, Blane, B, Spyer, MJ, Smith, P, Yavus, M, Williams, RJ, Mahanama, AIK, Samaraweera, B, Girgis, ST, Hansford, SE, Green, A, Beaver, C, Bellis, KL, Dorman, MJ, Kay, S, Prestwood, L, Rajatileka, S, Quick, J, Poplawski, R, Reynolds, N, Mack, A, Morriss, A, Whalley, T, Patel, B, Georgana, I, Hosmillo, M, Pinckert, ML, Stockton, J, Henderson, JH, Hollis, A, Stanley, W, Yew, WC, Myers, R, Thornton, A, Adams, A, Annett, T, Asad, H, Birchley, A, Coombes, J, Evans, JM, Fina, L, Gatica-Wilcox, B, Gilbert, L, Graham, L, Hey, J, Hilvers, E, Jones, S, Jones, H, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Taylor, S, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Goldstein, EJ, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Pascall, D, Vattipally, S, Freeman, TM, Hsu, SN, Lindsey, BB, James, K, Lewis, K, Tonkin-Hill, G, Tovar-Corona, JM, Cox, M, Abudahab, K, Menegazzo, M, Taylor, BEW, Yeats, CA, Mukaddas, A, Wright, DW, de Oliveira Martins, L, Colquhoun, R, Hill, V, Jackson, B, McCrone, JT, Medd, N, Scher, E, Keatley, J, Curran, T, Morgan, S, Maxwell, P, Smith, K, Eldirdiri, S, Kenyon, A, Holmes, AH, Price, JR, Wyatt, T, Mather, AE, Skvortsov, T, Hartley, JA, Guest, M, Kitchen, C, Merrick, I, Munn, R, Bertolusso, B, Lynch, J, Vernet, G, Kirk, S, Wastnedge, E, Stanley, R, Idle, G, Bradley, DT, Killough, NF, Poyner, J, Mori, M, Jones, O, Wright, V, Brooks, E, Churcher, CM, Delgado Callico, L, Fragakis, M, Galai, K, Jermy, A, Judges, S, Markov, A, McManus, GM, Smith, KS, Thomas-McEwen, PMD, Westwick, E, Attwood, SW, Bolt, F, Davies, A, De Lacy, E, Downing, F, Edwards, S, Meadows, L, Jeremiah, S, Smith, N, Foulser, L, Patel, A, Berry, L, Boswell, T, Fleming, VM, Howson-Wells, HC, Joseph, A, Khakh, M, Lister, MM, Bird, PW, Fallon, K, Helmer, T, McMurray, CL, Odedra, M, Shaw, J, Tang, JW, Willford, NJ, Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, L, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, El Bouzidi, K, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Blacow, R, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, C, Chalker, V, Harrison, I, Gifford, L, Molnar, Z, Auckland, C, Evans, C, Johnson, K, Partridge, DG, Raza, M, Baker, P, Bonner, S, Essex, S, Murray, LJ, Lawton, AI, Burton-Fanning, S, Payne, BAI, Waugh, S, Gomes, AN, Kimuli, M, Murray, DR, Ashfield, P, Dobie, D, Ashford, F, Best, A, Crawford, L, Cumley, N, Mayhew, M, Megram, O, Mirza, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Percival, B, Driscoll, M, Ensell, L, Lowe, HL, Maftei, L, Mondani, M, Chaloner, NJ, Cogger, BJ, Easton, LJ, Huckson, H, Lewis, J, Lowdon, S, Malone, CS, Munemo, F, Mutingwende, M, Nicodemi, R, Podplomyk Fd, O, Somassa, T, Beggs, A, Richter, A, Cormie, C, Dias, J, Forrest, S, Higginson, EE, Maes, M, Young, J, Davidson, RK, Jackson, KA, Keeley, AJ, Ball, J, Byaruhanga, T, Chappell, JG, Dey, J, Hill, JD, Park, EJ, Fanaie, A, Hilson, RA, Yaze, G, Lo, S, Afifi, S, Beer, R, Maksimovic, J, McCluggage, K, Spellman, K, Bresner, C, Fuller, W, Marchbank, A, Workma, T, Shelest, E, Debebe, J, Sang, F, Francois, S, Gutierrez, B, Vasylyeva, TI, Flaviani, F, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Smollett, KL, Broos, A, Mair, D, Nichols, J, Nomikou, K, Tong, L, Tsatsani, I, O'Brien, S, Rushton, S, Sanderson, R, Perkins, J, Gallagher, A, Allara, E, Pearson, C, Bibby, D, Dabrer, G, Ellaby, N, Gallagher, E, Hubb, J, Lackenby, A, Lee, D, Manesis, N, Mbisa, T, Platt, S, Twohig, KA, Morgan, M, Aydin, A, Baker, DJ, Foster-Nyarko, E, Prosolek, SJ, Rudder, S, Baxter, C, Carvalho, SF, Lavin, D, Mariappan, A, Radulescu, C, Singh, A, Tang, M, Morcrette, H, Bayzid, N, Cotic, M, Balcazar, CE, Gallagher, MD, Maloney, D, Stanton, TD, Williamson, KA, Manley, R, Michelsen, ML, Sambles, CM, Studholme, DJ, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Eccles, R, Gemmell, M, Gregory, R, Hughes, M, Nelson, C, Rainbow, L, Vamos, EE, Webster, HJ, Whitehead, M, Wierzbicki, C, Angyal, A, Green, LR, Whiteley, M, Betteridge, E, Bronner, IF, Farr, BW, Goodwin, S, Lensing, SV, McCarthy, SA, Quail, MA, Rajan, D, Redshaw, NM, Scott, C, Shirley, L, Thurston, SAJ, Rowe, W, Gaskin, A, Le-Viet, T, Bonfield, J, Liddle, J, and Whitwham, A
Abstract: Summary Background The first epidemic wave of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Scotland resulted in high case numbers and mortality in care homes. In Lothian, over one-third of care homes reported an outbreak, while there was limited testing of hospital patients discharged to care homes. Aim To investigate patients discharged from hospitals as a source of SARS-CoV-2 introduction into care homes during the first epidemic wave. Methods A clinical review was performed for all patients discharges from hospitals to care homes from 1st March 2020 to 31st May 2020. Episodes were ruled out based on coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) test history, clinical assessment at discharge, whole-genome sequencing (WGS) data and an infectious period of 14 days. Clinical samples were processed for WGS, and consensus genomes generated were used for analysis using Cluster Investigation and Virus Epidemiological Tool software. Patient timelines were obtained using electronic hospital records. Findings In total, 787 patients discharged from hospitals to care homes were identified. Of these, 776 (99%) were ruled out for subsequent introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes. However, for 10 episodes, the results were inconclusive as there was low genomic diversity in consensus genomes or no sequencing data were available. Only one discharge episode had a genomic, time and location link to positive cases during hospital admission, leading to 10 positive cases in their care home. Conclusion The majority of patients discharged from hospitals were ruled out for introduction of SARS-CoV-2 into care homes, highlighting the importance of screening all new admissions when faced with a novel emerging virus and no available vaccine.

35. SARS-CoV-2 lineage dynamics in England from September to November 2021: high diversity of Delta sub-lineages and increased transmissibility of AY.4.2

Author: Eales, O, Page, AJ, de Oliveira Martins, L, Wang, H, Bodinier, B, Haw, D, Jonnerby, J, Atchison, C, Robson, SC, Connor, TR, Loman, NJ, Golubchik, T, Nunez, RTM, Bonsall, D, Rambaut, A, Snell, LB, Livett, R, Ludden, C, Corden, S, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Johnston, I, Lythgoe, K, Torok, ME, Goodfellow, IG, Prieto, JA, Saeed, K, Jackson, DK, Houlihan, C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Thomson, EC, Harrison, EM, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, P, Jackson, LM, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Amato, R, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Barrett, JC, Aggarwal, D, Shepherd, JG, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Carabelli, AM, Templeton, KE, de Silva, TI, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Sillitoe, J, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O’Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, D, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Holden, MTG, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, S, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, D, Robertson, DL, Martincorena, I, Aigrain, L, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Chapman, MHS, Dewar, R, McHugh, MP, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, C, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Harvey, WT, Hughes, J, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O’Toole, Á, Gourtovaia, M, Sanderson, T, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, J, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Peacock, SJ, Heyburn, D, Kitchman, K, McNally, A, Pritchard, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Weldon, D, Catalan, J, Jones, N, da Silva Filipe, A, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Oliver, K, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, A, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Randell, PA, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, Swindells, E, Turnbull, R, Sloan, TJ, Bosworth, A, Hutchings, S, Pymont, HM, Casey, A, Ratcliffe, L, Jones, CR, Knight, BA, Haque, T, Hart, J, Irish-Tavares, D, Witele, E, Mower, C, Watson, LK, Collins, J, Eltringham, G, Crudgington, D, Macklin, B, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Lucaci, AO, McClure, PC, Carlile, M, Holmes, N, Storey, N, Rooke, S, Yebra, G, Craine, N, Perry, M, Alikhan, N - F, Bridgett, S, Cook, KF, Fearn, C, Goudarzi, S, Lyons, RA, Williams, T, Haldenby, ST, Durham, J, Leonard, S, Davies, RM, Batra, R, Blane, B, Spyer, MJ, Smith, P, Yavus, M, Williams, RJ, Mahanama, AIK, Samaraweera, B, Girgis, ST, Hansford, SE, Green, A, Beaver, C, Bellis, KL, Dorman, MJ, Kay, S, Prestwood, L, Rajatileka, S, Quick, J, Poplawski, R, Reynolds, N, Mack, A, Morriss, A, Whalley, T, Patel, B, Georgana, I, Hosmillo, M, Pinckert, ML, Stockton, J, Henderson, JH, Hollis, A, Stanley, W, Yew, WC, Myers, R, Thornton, A, Adams, A, Annett, T, Asad, H, Birchley, A, Coombes, J, Evans, JM, Fina, L, Gatica-Wilcox, B, Gilbert, L, Graham, L, Hey, J, Hilvers, E, Jones, S, Jones, H, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Taylor, S, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Goldstein, EJ, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Pascall, D, Vattipally, S, 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Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, L - A, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Alcolea-Medina, A, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, Bouzidi, KE, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Blacow, R, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, C, Chalker, V, Harrison, I, Gifford, L, Molnar, Z, Auckland, C, Evans, C, Johnson, K, Partridge, DG, Raza, M, Baker, P, Bonner, S, Essex, S, Murray, LJ, Lawton, AI, Burton-Fanning, S, Payne, BAI, Waugh, S, Gomes, AN, Kimuli, M, Murray, DR, Ashfield, P, Dobie, D, Ashford, F, Best, A, Crawford, L, Cumley, N, Mayhew, M, Megram, O, Mirza, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Percival, B, Driscoll, 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Foster-Nyarko, E, Prosolek, SJ, Rudder, S, Baxter, C, Carvalho, SF, Lavin, D, Mariappan, A, Radulescu, C, Singh, A, Tang, M, Morcrette, H, Bayzid, N, Cotic, M, Balcazar, CE, Gallagher, MD, Maloney, D, Stanton, TD, Williamson, KA, Manley, R, Michelsen, ML, Sambles, CM, Studholme, DJ, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Eccles, R, Gemmell, M, Gregory, R, Hughes, M, Nelson, C, Rainbow, L, Vamos, EE, Webster, HJ, Whitehead, M, Wierzbicki, C, Angyal, A, Green, LR, Whiteley, M, Betteridge, E, Bronner, IF, Farr, BW, Goodwin, S, Lensing, SV, McCarthy, SA, Quail, MA, Rajan, D, Redshaw, NM, Scott, C, Shirley, L, Thurston, SAJ, Rowe, W, Gaskin, A, Le-Viet, T, Bonfield, J, Liddle, J, Whitwham, A, Ashby, D, Barclay, W, Taylor, G, Cooke, G, Ward, H, Darzi, A, Riley, S, Chadeau-Hyam, M, Donnelly, CA, Elliott, P, The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, Eales, O, Page, AJ, de Oliveira Martins, L, Wang, H, Bodinier, B, Haw, D, Jonnerby, J, Atchison, C, Robson, SC, Connor, TR, Loman, NJ, Golubchik, T, Nunez, RTM, Bonsall, D, Rambaut, A, Snell, LB, Livett, R, Ludden, C, Corden, S, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Johnston, I, Lythgoe, K, Torok, ME, Goodfellow, IG, Prieto, JA, Saeed, K, Jackson, DK, Houlihan, C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Thomson, EC, Harrison, EM, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, P, Jackson, LM, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Amato, R, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Barrett, JC, Aggarwal, D, Shepherd, JG, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Carabelli, AM, Templeton, KE, de Silva, TI, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Sillitoe, J, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O’Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, D, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Holden, MTG, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, S, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, D, Robertson, DL, Martincorena, I, Aigrain, L, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Chapman, MHS, Dewar, R, McHugh, MP, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, C, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Harvey, WT, Hughes, J, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O’Toole, Á, Gourtovaia, M, Sanderson, T, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, J, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Peacock, SJ, Heyburn, D, Kitchman, K, McNally, A, Pritchard, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Weldon, D, Catalan, J, Jones, N, da Silva Filipe, A, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Oliver, K, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, A, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Randell, PA, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, Swindells, E, Turnbull, R, Sloan, TJ, Bosworth, A, Hutchings, S, Pymont, HM, Casey, A, Ratcliffe, L, Jones, CR, Knight, BA, Haque, T, Hart, J, Irish-Tavares, D, Witele, E, Mower, C, Watson, LK, Collins, J, Eltringham, G, Crudgington, D, Macklin, B, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Lucaci, AO, McClure, PC, Carlile, M, Holmes, N, Storey, N, Rooke, S, Yebra, G, Craine, N, Perry, M, Alikhan, N - F, Bridgett, S, Cook, KF, Fearn, C, Goudarzi, S, Lyons, RA, Williams, T, Haldenby, ST, Durham, J, Leonard, S, Davies, RM, Batra, R, Blane, B, Spyer, MJ, Smith, P, Yavus, M, Williams, RJ, Mahanama, AIK, Samaraweera, B, Girgis, ST, Hansford, SE, Green, A, Beaver, C, Bellis, KL, Dorman, MJ, Kay, S, Prestwood, L, Rajatileka, S, Quick, J, Poplawski, R, Reynolds, N, Mack, A, Morriss, A, Whalley, T, Patel, B, Georgana, I, Hosmillo, M, Pinckert, ML, Stockton, J, Henderson, JH, Hollis, A, Stanley, W, Yew, WC, Myers, R, Thornton, A, Adams, A, Annett, T, Asad, H, Birchley, A, Coombes, J, Evans, JM, Fina, L, Gatica-Wilcox, B, Gilbert, L, Graham, L, Hey, J, Hilvers, E, Jones, S, Jones, H, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Taylor, S, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Goldstein, EJ, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Pascall, D, Vattipally, S, Freeman, TM, Hsu, SN, Lindsey, BB, James, K, Lewis, K, Tonkin-Hill, G, Tovar-Corona, JM, Cox, MG, Abudahab, K, Menegazzo, M, MEng, BEWT, Yeats, CA, Mukaddas, A, Wright, DW, Colquhoun, R, Hill, V, Jackson, B, McCrone, JT, Medd, N, Scher, E, Keatley, J - P, Curran, T, Morgan, S, Maxwell, P, Smith, K, Eldirdiri, S, Kenyon, A, Holmes, AH, Price, JR, Wyatt, T, Mather, AE, Skvortsov, T, Hartley, JA, Guest, M, Kitchen, C, Merrick, I, Munn, R, Bertolusso, B, Lynch, J, Vernet, G, Kirk, S, Wastnedge, E, Stanley, R, Idle, G, Bradley, DT, Poyner, J, Mori, M, Jones, O, Wright, V, Brooks, E, Churcher, CM, Fragakis, M, Galai, K, Jermy, A, Judges, S, McManus, GM, Smith, KS, Westwick, E, Attwood, SW, Bolt, F, Davies, A, De Lacy, E, Downing, F, Edwards, S, Meadows, L, Jeremiah, S, Smith, N, Foulser, L, Charalampous, T, Patel, A, Berry, L, Boswell, T, Fleming, VM, Howson-Wells, HC, Joseph, A, Khakh, M, Lister, MM, Bird, PW, Fallon, K, Helmer, T, McMurray, CL, Odedra, M, Shaw, J, Tang, JW, Willford, NJ, Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, L - A, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Alcolea-Medina, A, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, Bouzidi, KE, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Blacow, R, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, C, Chalker, V, Harrison, I, Gifford, L, Molnar, Z, Auckland, C, Evans, C, Johnson, K, Partridge, DG, Raza, M, Baker, P, Bonner, S, Essex, S, Murray, LJ, Lawton, AI, Burton-Fanning, S, Payne, BAI, Waugh, S, Gomes, AN, Kimuli, M, Murray, DR, Ashfield, P, Dobie, D, Ashford, F, Best, A, Crawford, L, Cumley, N, Mayhew, M, Megram, O, Mirza, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Percival, B, Driscoll, M, Ensell, L, Lowe, HL, Maftei, L, Mondani, M, Chaloner, NJ, Cogger, BJ, Easton, LJ, Huckson, H, Lewis, J, Lowdon, S, Malone, CS, Munemo, F, Mutingwende, M, Nicodemi, R, Podplomyk, O, Somassa, T, Beggs, A, Richter, A, Cormie, C, Dias, J, Forrest, S, Higginson, EE, Maes, M, Young, J, Davidson, RK, Jackson, KA, Turtle, L, Keeley, AJ, Ball, J, Byaruhanga, T, Chappell, JG, Dey, J, Hill, JD, Park, EJ, Fanaie, A, Hilson, RA, Yaze, G, Lo, S, Afifi, S, Beer, R, Maksimovic, J, McCluggage, K, Spellman, K, Bresner, C, Fuller, W, Marchbank, A, Workman, T, Shelest, E, Debebe, J, Sang, F, Zamudio, ME, Francois, S, Gutierrez, B, Vasylyeva, TI, Flaviani, F, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Smollett, KL, Broos, A, Mair, D, Nichols, J, Nomikou, K, Tong, L, Tsatsani, I, O’Brien, PS, Rushton, S, Sanderson, R, Perkins, J, Cotton, S, Gallagher, A, Allara, E, Pearson, C, Bibby, D, Dabrera, G, Ellaby, N, Gallagher, E, Hubb, J, Lackenby, A, Lee, D, Manesis, N, Mbisa, T, Platt, S, Twohig, KA, Morgan, M, Aydin, A, Baker, DJ, Foster-Nyarko, E, Prosolek, SJ, Rudder, S, Baxter, C, Carvalho, SF, Lavin, D, Mariappan, A, Radulescu, C, Singh, A, Tang, M, Morcrette, H, Bayzid, N, Cotic, M, Balcazar, CE, Gallagher, MD, Maloney, D, Stanton, TD, Williamson, KA, Manley, R, Michelsen, ML, Sambles, CM, Studholme, DJ, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Eccles, R, Gemmell, M, Gregory, R, Hughes, M, Nelson, C, Rainbow, L, Vamos, EE, Webster, HJ, Whitehead, M, Wierzbicki, C, Angyal, A, Green, LR, Whiteley, M, Betteridge, E, Bronner, IF, Farr, BW, Goodwin, S, Lensing, SV, McCarthy, SA, Quail, MA, Rajan, D, Redshaw, NM, Scott, C, Shirley, L, Thurston, SAJ, Rowe, W, Gaskin, A, Le-Viet, T, Bonfield, J, Liddle, J, Whitwham, A, Ashby, D, Barclay, W, Taylor, G, Cooke, G, Ward, H, Darzi, A, Riley, S, Chadeau-Hyam, M, Donnelly, CA, Elliott, P, and The COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium
Abstract: Background: Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2, evolutionary pressure has driven large increases in the transmissibility of the virus. However, with increasing levels of immunity through vaccination and natural infection the evolutionary pressure will switch towards immune escape. Genomic surveillance in regions of high immunity is crucial in detecting emerging variants that can more successfully navigate the immune landscape. Methods: We present phylogenetic relationships and lineage dynamics within England (a country with high levels of immunity), as inferred from a random community sample of individuals who provided a self-administered throat and nose swab for rt-PCR testing as part of the REal-time Assessment of Community Transmission-1 (REACT-1) study. During round 14 (9 September–27 September 2021) and 15 (19 October–5 November 2021) lineages were determined for 1322 positive individuals, with 27.1% of those which reported their symptom status reporting no symptoms in the previous month. Results: We identified 44 unique lineages, all of which were Delta or Delta sub-lineages, and found a reduction in their mutation rate over the study period. The proportion of the Delta sub-lineage AY.4.2 was increasing, with a reproduction number 15% (95% CI 8–23%) greater than the most prevalent lineage, AY.4. Further, AY.4.2 was less associated with the most predictive COVID-19 symptoms (p = 0.029) and had a reduced mutation rate (p = 0.050). Both AY.4.2 and AY.4 were found to be geographically clustered in September but this was no longer the case by late October/early November, with only the lineage AY.6 exhibiting clustering towards the South of England. Conclusions: As SARS-CoV-2 moves towards endemicity and new variants emerge, genomic data obtained from random community samples can augment routine surveillance data without the potential biases introduced due to higher sampling rates of symptomatic individuals. © 2022, The Author(s).

36. COVID-19 due to the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant compared to B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant of SARS-CoV-2: a prospective observational cohort study

Author: Kläser, K., Molteni, E., Graham, M., Canas, L. S., Österdahl, M. F., Antonelli, M., Chen, L., Deng, J., Murray, B., Kerfoot, E., Wolf, J., May, A., Fox, B., Capdevila, J., Aanensen, D. M., Abudahab, K., Adams, H., Adams, A., Afifi, S., Aggarwal, D., Ahmad, S. S. Y., Aigrain, L., Alcolea-Medina, A., Alikhan, N-F, Allara, E., Amato, R., Angyal, A., Annett, T., Aplin, S., Ariani, C. V., Asad, H., Ash, A., Ashfield, P., Ashford, F., Atkinson, L., Attwood, S. W., Auckland, C., Aydin, A., Baker, D. J., Baker, P., Balcazar, C. E., Ball, J., Barrett, J. C., Barrow, M., Barton, E., Bashton, M., Bassett, A. R., Batra, R., Baxter, C., Bayzid, N., Beaver, C., Beckett, A. H., Beckwith, S. M., Bedford, L., Beer, R., Beggs, A., Bellis, K. L., Berry, L., Bertolusso, B., Best, A., Betteridge, E., Bibby, D., Bicknell, K., Binns, D., Birchley, A., Bird, P. W., Bishop, C., Blacow, R., Blakey, V., Blane, B., Bolt, F., Bonfield, J., Bonner, S., Bonsall, D., Boswell, T., Bosworth, A., Bourgeois, Y., Boyd, O., Bradley, D. T., Breen, C., Bresner, C., Breuer, J., Bridgett, S., Bronner, I. F., Brooks, E., Broos, A., Brown, J. R., Bucca, G., Buchan, S. L., Buck, D., Bull, M., Burns, P. J., Burton-Fanning, S., Byaruhanga, T., Byott, M., Campbell, S., Carabelli, A. M., Cargill, J. S., Carlile, M., Carvalho, S. F., Casey, A., Castigador, A., Catalan, J., Chalker, V., Chaloner, N. J., Chand, M., Chappell, J. G., Charalampous, T., Chatterton, W., Chaudhry, Y., Churcher, C. M., Clark, G., Clarke, P., Cogger, B. J., Cole, K., Collins, J., Colquhoun, R., Connor, T. R., Cook, K. F., Coombes, J., Corden, S., Cormie, C., Cortes, N., Cotic, M., Cotton, S., Cottrell, S., Coupland, L., Cox, M. G., Cox, A., Craine, N., Crawford, L., Cross, A., Crown, M. R., Crudgington, D., Cumley, N., Curran, T., Curran, M. D., da Silva Filipe, A., Dabrera, G., Darby, A. C., Davidson, R. K., Davies, A., Davies, R. M., Davis, T., de Angelis, D., De Lacy, E., de Oliveira Martins, L., de Silva, T. I., Debebe, J., Denton-Smith, R., Dervisevic, S., Dewar, R., Dey, J., Dias, J., Dobie, D., Dorman, M. J., Downing, F., Driscoll, M., du Plessis, L., Duckworth, N., Durham, J., Eastick, K., Easton, L. J., Eccles, R., Edgeworth, J., Edwards, S., Bouzidi, K. E., Eldirdiri, S., Ellaby, N., Elliott, S., Eltringham, G., Ensell, L., Erkiert, M. J., Zamudio, M. E., Essex, S., Evans, J. M., Evans, C., Everson, W., Fairley, D. J., Fallon, K., Fanaie, A., Farr, B. W., Fearn, C., Feltwell, T., Ferguson, L., Fina, L., Flaviani, F., Fleming, V. M., Forrest, S., Foster-Nyarko, E., Foulkes, B. H., Foulser, L., Fragakis, M., Frampton, D., Francois, S., Fraser, C., Freeman, T. M., Fryer, H., Fuchs, M., Fuller, W., Gajee, K., Galai, K., Gallagher, A., Gallagher, E., Gallagher, M. D., Gallis, M., Gaskin, A., Gatica-Wilcox, B., Geidelberg, L., Gemmell, M., Georgana, I., George, R. P., Gifford, L., Gilbert, L., Girgis, S. T., Glaysher, S., Goldstein, E. J., Golubchik, T., Gomes, A. N., Gonçalves, S., Goodfellow, I. G., Goodwin, S., Goudarzi, S., Gourtovaia, M., Graham, C. A., Graham, L., Grant, P. R., Green, L. R., Green, A., Greenaway, J., Gregory, R., Guest, M., Gunson, R. N., Gupta, R. K., Gutierrez, B., Haldenby, S. T., Hamilton, W. L., Hansford, S. E., Haque, T., Harris, K. A., Harrison, I., Harrison, E. M., Hart, J., Hartley, .J. A., Harvey, W. T., Harvey, M., Hassan-Ibrahim, M. O., Heaney, J., Helmer, T., Henderson, J. H., Hesketh, A. R., Hey, J., Heyburn, D., Higginson, E. E., Hill, V., Hill, J. D., Hilson, R. A., Hilvers, E., Holden, M. T. G., Hollis, A., Holmes, C. W., Holmes, N., Holmes, A. H., Hopes, R., Hornsby, H. R., Hosmillo, M., Houlihan, C., Howson-Wells, H. C., Hsu, S. N., Hubb, J., Huckson, H., Hughes, W., Hughes, J., Hughes, M., Hutchings, S., Idle, G, Illingworth, CJ, Impey, R, Irish-Tavares, D, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Izuagbe, R, Jackson, C, Jackson, B, Jackson, LM, Jackson, KA, Jackson, DK, Jahun, AS, James, V, James, K, Jeanes, C, Jeffries, AR, Jeremiah, S, Jermy, A, John, M, Johnson, R, Johnson, K, Johnston, I, Jones, O, Jones, S, Jones, H, Jones, CR, Jones, N, Joseph, A, Judges, S, Kay, GL, Kay, S, Keatley, J - P, Keeley, AJ, Kenyon, A, Kermack, LM, Khakh, M, Kidd, SP, Kimuli, M, Kirk, S, Kitchen, C, Kitchman, K, Knight, BA, Koshy, C, Kraemer, MUG, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, Kwiatkowski, D, Lackenby, A, Laing, KG, Lampejo, T, Langford, CF, Lavin, D, Lawton, AI, Lee, JCD, Lee, D, Lensing, SV, Leonard, S, Levett, LJ, Le-Viet, T, Lewis, J, Lewis, K, Liddle, J, Liggett, S, Lillie, PJ, Lindsey, BB, Lister, MM, Livett, R, Lo, S, Loman, NJ, Loose, MW, Louka, SF, Loveson, KF, Lowdon, S, Lowe, H, Lowe, HL, Lucaci, AO, Ludden, C, Lynch, J, Lyons, RA, Lythgoe, K, Machin, NW, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Mack, A, Macklin, B, Maclean, A, Macnaughton, E, Madona, P, Maes, M, Maftei, L, Mahanama, AIK, Mahungu, TW, Mair, D, Maksimovic, J, Malone, CS, Maloney, D, Manesis, N, Manley, R, Mantzouratou, A, Marchbank, A, Mariappan, A, Martincorena, I, Nunez, RTM, Mather, AE, Maxwell, P, Mayhew, M, Mbisa, T, McCann, CM, McCarthy, SA, McCluggage, K, McClure, PC, McCrone, JT, McHugh, MP, McKenna, JP, McKerr, C, McManus, GM, McMurray, CL, McMurray, C, McNally, A, Meadows, L, Medd, N, Megram, O, Menegazzo, M, Merrick, I, Michell, SL, Michelsen, ML, Mirfenderesky, M, Mirza, J, Miskelly, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Moll, RJ, Molnar, Z, Monahan, IM, Mondani, M, Mookerjee, S, Moore, C, Moore, J, Moore, N, Morcrette, H, Morgan, S, Morgan, M, Mori, M, Morriss, A, Moses, S, Mower, C, Muir, P, Mukaddas, A, Munemo, F, Munn, R, Murray, A, Murray, LJ, Murray, DR, Mutingwende, M, Myers, R, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Nelson, A, Nelson, C, Nicholls, S, Nichols, J, Nicodemi, R, Nomikou, K, O’Grady, J, O’Brien, S, Odedra, M, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Oliver, K, Orton, RJ, Osman, H, O’Toole, Á, Pacchiarini, N, Padgett, D, Page, AJ, Park, EJ, Park, NR, Parker, MD, Parmar, S, Partridge, DG, Pascall, D, Patel, A, Patel, B, Paterson, S, Payne, BAI, Peacock, SJ, Pearson, C, Pelosi, E, Percival, B, Perkins, J, Perry, M, Pinckert, ML, Platt, S, Podplomyk, O, Pohare, M, Pond, M, Pope, CF, Poplawski, R, Powell, J, Poyner, J, Prestwood, L, Price, A, Price, JR, Prieto, JA, Pritchard, DT, Prosolek, SJ, Pugh, G, Pusok, M, Pybus, OG, Pymont, HM, Quail, MA, Quick, J, Radulescu, C, Raghwani, J, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Rainbow, L, Rajan, D, Rajatileka, S, Ramadan, NA, Rambaut, A, Ramble, J, Randell, PA, Randell, P, Ratcliffe, L, Raviprakash, V, Raza, M, Redshaw, NM, Rey, S, Reynolds, N, Richter, A, Robertson, DL, Robinson, E, Robson, SC, Rogan, F, Rooke, S, Rowe, W, Roy, S, Rudder, S, Ruis, C, Rushton, S, Ryan, F, Saeed, K, Samaraweera, B, Sambles, CM, Sanderson, R, Sanderson, T, Sang, F, Sass, T, Scher, E, Scott, G, Scott, C, Sehmi, J, Shaaban, S, Shah, D, Shaw, J, Shelest, E, Shepherd, JG, Sheridan, LA, Sheriff, N, Shirley, L, Sillitoe, J, Silviera, S, Simpson, DA, Singh, A, Singleton, D, Skvortsov, T, Sloan, TJ, Sluga, G, Smith, K, Smith, KS, Smith, P, Smith, DL, Smith, L, Smith, CP, Smith, N, Smollett, KL, Snell, LB, Somassa, T, Southgate, J, Spellman, K, Chapman, MHS, Spurgin, LG, Spyer, MJ, Stanley, R, Stanley, W, Stanton, TD, Starinskij, I, Stockton, J, Stonehouse, S, Storey, N, Studholme, DJ, Sudhanva, M, Swindells, E, Taha, Y, Tan, NK, Tang, JW, Tang, M, Taylor, BEW, Taylor, JF, Taylor, S, Temperton, B, Templeton, KE, Thomas, C, Thomson, L, Thomson, EC, Thornton, A, Thurston, SAJ, Todd, JA, Tomb, R, Tong, L, Tonkin-Hill, G, Torok, ME, Tovar-Corona, JM, Trebes, A, Trotter, AJ, Tsatsani, I, Turnbull, R, Turtle, L, Twohig, KA, Umpleby, H, Underwood, AP, Vamos, EE, Vasylyeva, TI, Vattipally, S, Vernet, G, Vipond, BB, Volz, EM, Walsh, S, Wang, D, Warne, B, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Wastnedge, E, Watkins, J, Watson, LK, Waugh, S, Webster, HJ, Weldon, D, Westwick, E, Whalley, T, Wheeler, H, Whitehead, M, Whiteley, M, Whitwham, A, Wierzbicki, C, Willford, NJ, Williams, L-A, Williams, R, Williams, C, Williams, CA, Williams, RJ, Williams, T, Williamson, KA, Wilson-Davies, E, Witele, E, Withell, KT, Witney, AA, Wolverson, P, Wong, N, Workman, T, Wright, V, Wright, DW, Wyatt, T, Wyllie, S, Xu-McCrae, L., Yavus, M., Yaze, G., Yeats, C. A., Yebra, G., Yew, W. C., Young, G. R., Young, J., Zarebski, A. E., Zhang, P., Modat, M., Hammers, A., Spector, T. D., Steves, C. J., Sudre, C. H., Ourselin, S., Duncan, E. L., Kläser, K., Molteni, E., Graham, M., Canas, L. S., Österdahl, M. F., Antonelli, M., Chen, L., Deng, J., Murray, B., Kerfoot, E., Wolf, J., May, A., Fox, B., Capdevila, J., Aanensen, D. M., Abudahab, K., Adams, H., Adams, A., Afifi, S., Aggarwal, D., Ahmad, S. S. Y., Aigrain, L., Alcolea-Medina, A., Alikhan, N-F, Allara, E., Amato, R., Angyal, A., Annett, T., Aplin, S., Ariani, C. V., Asad, H., Ash, A., Ashfield, P., Ashford, F., Atkinson, L., Attwood, S. W., Auckland, C., Aydin, A., Baker, D. J., Baker, P., Balcazar, C. E., Ball, J., Barrett, J. C., Barrow, M., Barton, E., Bashton, M., Bassett, A. R., Batra, R., Baxter, C., Bayzid, N., Beaver, C., Beckett, A. H., Beckwith, S. M., Bedford, L., Beer, R., Beggs, A., Bellis, K. L., Berry, L., Bertolusso, B., Best, A., Betteridge, E., Bibby, D., Bicknell, K., Binns, D., Birchley, A., Bird, P. W., Bishop, C., Blacow, R., Blakey, V., Blane, B., Bolt, F., Bonfield, J., Bonner, S., Bonsall, D., Boswell, T., Bosworth, A., Bourgeois, Y., Boyd, O., Bradley, D. T., Breen, C., Bresner, C., Breuer, J., Bridgett, S., Bronner, I. F., Brooks, E., Broos, A., Brown, J. R., Bucca, G., Buchan, S. L., Buck, D., Bull, M., Burns, P. J., Burton-Fanning, S., Byaruhanga, T., Byott, M., Campbell, S., Carabelli, A. M., Cargill, J. S., Carlile, M., Carvalho, S. F., Casey, A., Castigador, A., Catalan, J., Chalker, V., Chaloner, N. J., Chand, M., Chappell, J. G., Charalampous, T., Chatterton, W., Chaudhry, Y., Churcher, C. M., Clark, G., Clarke, P., Cogger, B. J., Cole, K., Collins, J., Colquhoun, R., Connor, T. R., Cook, K. F., Coombes, J., Corden, S., Cormie, C., Cortes, N., Cotic, M., Cotton, S., Cottrell, S., Coupland, L., Cox, M. G., Cox, A., Craine, N., Crawford, L., Cross, A., Crown, M. R., Crudgington, D., Cumley, N., Curran, T., Curran, M. D., da Silva Filipe, A., Dabrera, G., Darby, A. C., Davidson, R. K., Davies, A., Davies, R. M., Davis, T., de Angelis, D., De Lacy, E., de Oliveira Martins, L., de Silva, T. I., Debebe, J., Denton-Smith, R., Dervisevic, S., Dewar, R., Dey, J., Dias, J., Dobie, D., Dorman, M. J., Downing, F., Driscoll, M., du Plessis, L., Duckworth, N., Durham, J., Eastick, K., Easton, L. J., Eccles, R., Edgeworth, J., Edwards, S., Bouzidi, K. E., Eldirdiri, S., Ellaby, N., Elliott, S., Eltringham, G., Ensell, L., Erkiert, M. J., Zamudio, M. E., Essex, S., Evans, J. M., Evans, C., Everson, W., Fairley, D. J., Fallon, K., Fanaie, A., Farr, B. W., Fearn, C., Feltwell, T., Ferguson, L., Fina, L., Flaviani, F., Fleming, V. M., Forrest, S., Foster-Nyarko, E., Foulkes, B. H., Foulser, L., Fragakis, M., Frampton, D., Francois, S., Fraser, C., Freeman, T. M., Fryer, H., Fuchs, M., Fuller, W., Gajee, K., Galai, K., Gallagher, A., Gallagher, E., Gallagher, M. D., Gallis, M., Gaskin, A., Gatica-Wilcox, B., Geidelberg, L., Gemmell, M., Georgana, I., George, R. P., Gifford, L., Gilbert, L., Girgis, S. T., Glaysher, S., Goldstein, E. J., Golubchik, T., Gomes, A. N., Gonçalves, S., Goodfellow, I. G., Goodwin, S., Goudarzi, S., Gourtovaia, M., Graham, C. A., Graham, L., Grant, P. R., Green, L. R., Green, A., Greenaway, J., Gregory, R., Guest, M., Gunson, R. N., Gupta, R. K., Gutierrez, B., Haldenby, S. T., Hamilton, W. L., Hansford, S. E., Haque, T., Harris, K. A., Harrison, I., Harrison, E. M., Hart, J., Hartley, .J. A., Harvey, W. T., Harvey, M., Hassan-Ibrahim, M. O., Heaney, J., Helmer, T., Henderson, J. H., Hesketh, A. R., Hey, J., Heyburn, D., Higginson, E. E., Hill, V., Hill, J. D., Hilson, R. A., Hilvers, E., Holden, M. T. G., Hollis, A., Holmes, C. W., Holmes, N., Holmes, A. H., Hopes, R., Hornsby, H. R., Hosmillo, M., Houlihan, C., Howson-Wells, H. C., Hsu, S. N., Hubb, J., Huckson, H., Hughes, W., Hughes, J., Hughes, M., Hutchings, S., Idle, G, Illingworth, CJ, Impey, R, Irish-Tavares, D, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Izuagbe, R, Jackson, C, Jackson, B, Jackson, LM, Jackson, KA, Jackson, DK, Jahun, AS, James, V, James, K, Jeanes, C, Jeffries, AR, Jeremiah, S, Jermy, A, John, M, Johnson, R, Johnson, K, Johnston, I, Jones, O, Jones, S, Jones, H, Jones, CR, Jones, N, Joseph, A, Judges, S, Kay, GL, Kay, S, Keatley, J - P, Keeley, AJ, Kenyon, A, Kermack, LM, Khakh, M, Kidd, SP, Kimuli, M, Kirk, S, Kitchen, C, Kitchman, K, Knight, BA, Koshy, C, Kraemer, MUG, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, Kwiatkowski, D, Lackenby, A, Laing, KG, Lampejo, T, Langford, CF, Lavin, D, Lawton, AI, Lee, JCD, Lee, D, Lensing, SV, Leonard, S, Levett, LJ, Le-Viet, T, Lewis, J, Lewis, K, Liddle, J, Liggett, S, Lillie, PJ, Lindsey, BB, Lister, MM, Livett, R, Lo, S, Loman, NJ, Loose, MW, Louka, SF, Loveson, KF, Lowdon, S, Lowe, H, Lowe, HL, Lucaci, AO, Ludden, C, Lynch, J, Lyons, RA, Lythgoe, K, Machin, NW, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Mack, A, Macklin, B, Maclean, A, Macnaughton, E, Madona, P, Maes, M, Maftei, L, Mahanama, AIK, Mahungu, TW, Mair, D, Maksimovic, J, Malone, CS, Maloney, D, Manesis, N, Manley, R, Mantzouratou, A, Marchbank, A, Mariappan, A, Martincorena, I, Nunez, RTM, Mather, AE, Maxwell, P, Mayhew, M, Mbisa, T, McCann, CM, McCarthy, SA, McCluggage, K, McClure, PC, McCrone, JT, McHugh, MP, McKenna, JP, McKerr, C, McManus, GM, McMurray, CL, McMurray, C, McNally, A, Meadows, L, Medd, N, Megram, O, Menegazzo, M, Merrick, I, Michell, SL, Michelsen, ML, Mirfenderesky, M, Mirza, J, Miskelly, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Moll, RJ, Molnar, Z, Monahan, IM, Mondani, M, Mookerjee, S, Moore, C, Moore, J, Moore, N, Morcrette, H, Morgan, S, Morgan, M, Mori, M, Morriss, A, Moses, S, Mower, C, Muir, P, Mukaddas, A, Munemo, F, Munn, R, Murray, A, Murray, LJ, Murray, DR, Mutingwende, M, Myers, R, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Nelson, A, Nelson, C, Nicholls, S, Nichols, J, Nicodemi, R, Nomikou, K, O’Grady, J, O’Brien, S, Odedra, M, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Oliver, K, Orton, RJ, Osman, H, O’Toole, Á, Pacchiarini, N, Padgett, D, Page, AJ, Park, EJ, Park, NR, Parker, MD, Parmar, S, Partridge, DG, Pascall, D, Patel, A, Patel, B, Paterson, S, Payne, BAI, Peacock, SJ, Pearson, C, Pelosi, E, Percival, B, Perkins, J, Perry, M, Pinckert, ML, Platt, S, Podplomyk, O, Pohare, M, Pond, M, Pope, CF, Poplawski, R, Powell, J, Poyner, J, Prestwood, L, Price, A, Price, JR, Prieto, JA, Pritchard, DT, Prosolek, SJ, Pugh, G, Pusok, M, Pybus, OG, Pymont, HM, Quail, MA, Quick, J, Radulescu, C, Raghwani, J, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Rainbow, L, Rajan, D, Rajatileka, S, Ramadan, NA, Rambaut, A, Ramble, J, Randell, PA, Randell, P, Ratcliffe, L, Raviprakash, V, Raza, M, Redshaw, NM, Rey, S, Reynolds, N, Richter, A, Robertson, DL, Robinson, E, Robson, SC, Rogan, F, Rooke, S, Rowe, W, Roy, S, Rudder, S, Ruis, C, Rushton, S, Ryan, F, Saeed, K, Samaraweera, B, Sambles, CM, Sanderson, R, Sanderson, T, Sang, F, Sass, T, Scher, E, Scott, G, Scott, C, Sehmi, J, Shaaban, S, Shah, D, Shaw, J, Shelest, E, Shepherd, JG, Sheridan, LA, Sheriff, N, Shirley, L, Sillitoe, J, Silviera, S, Simpson, DA, Singh, A, Singleton, D, Skvortsov, T, Sloan, TJ, Sluga, G, Smith, K, Smith, KS, Smith, P, Smith, DL, Smith, L, Smith, CP, Smith, N, Smollett, KL, Snell, LB, Somassa, T, Southgate, J, Spellman, K, Chapman, MHS, Spurgin, LG, Spyer, MJ, Stanley, R, Stanley, W, Stanton, TD, Starinskij, I, Stockton, J, Stonehouse, S, Storey, N, Studholme, DJ, Sudhanva, M, Swindells, E, Taha, Y, Tan, NK, Tang, JW, Tang, M, Taylor, BEW, Taylor, JF, Taylor, S, Temperton, B, Templeton, KE, Thomas, C, Thomson, L, Thomson, EC, Thornton, A, Thurston, SAJ, Todd, JA, Tomb, R, Tong, L, Tonkin-Hill, G, Torok, ME, Tovar-Corona, JM, Trebes, A, Trotter, AJ, Tsatsani, I, Turnbull, R, Turtle, L, Twohig, KA, Umpleby, H, Underwood, AP, Vamos, EE, Vasylyeva, TI, Vattipally, S, Vernet, G, Vipond, BB, Volz, EM, Walsh, S, Wang, D, Warne, B, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Wastnedge, E, Watkins, J, Watson, LK, Waugh, S, Webster, HJ, Weldon, D, Westwick, E, Whalley, T, Wheeler, H, Whitehead, M, Whiteley, M, Whitwham, A, Wierzbicki, C, Willford, NJ, Williams, L-A, Williams, R, Williams, C, Williams, CA, Williams, RJ, Williams, T, Williamson, KA, Wilson-Davies, E, Witele, E, Withell, KT, Witney, AA, Wolverson, P, Wong, N, Workman, T, Wright, V, Wright, DW, Wyatt, T, Wyllie, S, Xu-McCrae, L., Yavus, M., Yaze, G., Yeats, C. A., Yebra, G., Yew, W. C., Young, G. R., Young, J., Zarebski, A. E., Zhang, P., Modat, M., Hammers, A., Spector, T. D., Steves, C. J., Sudre, C. H., Ourselin, S., and Duncan, E. L.
Abstract: The Delta (B.1.617.2) variant was the predominant UK circulating SARS-CoV-2 strain between May and December 2021. How Delta infection compares with previous variants is unknown. This prospective observational cohort study assessed symptomatic adults participating in the app-based COVID Symptom Study who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 from May 26 to July 1, 2021 (Delta overwhelmingly the predominant circulating UK variant), compared (1:1, age- and sex-matched) with individuals presenting from December 28, 2020 to May 6, 2021 (Alpha (B.1.1.7) the predominant variant). We assessed illness (symptoms, duration, presentation to hospital) during Alpha- and Delta-predominant timeframes; and transmission, reinfection, and vaccine effectiveness during the Delta-predominant period. 3581 individuals (aged 18 to 100 years) from each timeframe were assessed. The seven most frequent symptoms were common to both variants. Within the first 28 days of illness, some symptoms were more common with Delta versus Alpha infection (including fever, sore throat, and headache) and some vice versa (dyspnoea). Symptom burden in the first week was higher with Delta versus Alpha infection; however, the odds of any given symptom lasting ≥ 7 days was either lower or unchanged. Illness duration ≥ 28 days was lower with Delta versus Alpha infection, though unchanged in unvaccinated individuals. Hospitalisation for COVID-19 was unchanged. The Delta variant appeared more (1.49) transmissible than Alpha. Re-infections were low in all UK regions. Vaccination markedly reduced the risk of Delta infection (by 69-84%). We conclude that COVID-19 from Delta or Alpha infections is similar. The Delta variant is more transmissible than Alpha; however, current vaccines showed good efficacy against disease. This research framework can be useful for future comparisons with new emerging variants. © 2022, The Author(s).

37. The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was associated with increased clinical severity of COVID-19 in Scotland: A genomics-based retrospective cohort analysis

Author: Pascall, DJ, Vink, E, Blacow, R, Bulteel, N, Campbell, A, Campbell, R, Clifford, S, Davis, C, Filipe, ADS, Sakka, NE, Fjodorova, L, Forrest, R, Goldstein, EJ, Gunson, R, Haughney, J, Holden, MTG, Honour, P, Hughes, J, James, E, Lewis, T, Lycett, S, MacLean, O, McHugh, MP, Mollett, G, Onishi, Y, Parcell, B, Ray, S, Robertson, DL, Shabaan, S, Shepherd, JG, Smollett, KL, Templeton, KE, Wastnedge, E, Wilkie, C, Williams, T, Thomson, EC, Robson, SC, Connor, TR, Loman, NJ, Golubchik, T, Martinez Nunez, RT, Bonsall, D, Rambaut, PA, Snell, LB, Livett, R, Ludden, C, Corden, S, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Johnston, I, Lythgoe, PK, Torok, ME, Goodfellow, IG, Prieto, JA, Saeed, K, Jackson, DK, Houlihan, C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Cutino-Moguel, T, Harrison, EM, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, PA, Jackson, LM, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Amato, R, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Barrett, JC, Kele, B, Aggarwal, D, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Carabelli, AM, Peacock, SJ, de Silva, TI, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Sillitoe, J, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O'Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, PD, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, PS, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, PD, Page, AJ, Martincorena, I, Aigrain, L, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Spencer Chapman, MH, Dewar, R, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, CL, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Harvey, WT, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O'Toole, A, Gourtovaia, M, Sanderson, T, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, PJ, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Heyburn, D, Charalampous, T, Alcolea-Medina, A, Kitchman, K, McNally, A, Pritchard, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Weldon, D, Catalan, J, Jones, N, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Oliver, K, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, Anna, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, Swindells, E, Turnbull, R, Sloan, TJ, Bosworth, A, Hutchings, S, Pymont, HM, Casey, A, Ratcliffe, L, Jones, CR, Knight, BA, Haque, T, Hart, J, Irish-Tavares, D, Witele, E, Mower, C, Watson, LK, Collins, J, Eltringham, G, Crudgington, D, Macklin, B, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Lucaci, AO, McClure, PC, Carlile, M, Holmes, N, Storey, N, Rooke, S, Yebra, G, Craine, N, Perry, M, Alikhan, N - F, Bridgett, S, Cook, KF, Fearn, C, Goudarzi, S, Lyons, RA, Haldenby, ST, Durham, J, Leonard, S, Davies, RM, Batra, R, Blane, B, Spyer, MJ, Smith, P, Yavus, M, Williams, RJ, Mahanama, AI, Samaraweera, B, Girgis, ST, Hansford, SE, Green, A, Beaver, C, Bellis, KL, Dorman, MJ, Kay, S, Prestwood, L, Rajatileka, S, Quick, J, Poplawski, R, Reynolds, N, Mack, A, Morriss, A, Whalley, T, Patel, B, Georgana, I, Hosmillo, M, Pinckert, ML, Stockton, J, Henderson, JH, Hollis, A, Stanley, W, Yew, WC, Myers, R, Thornton, A, Adams, A, Annett, T, Asad, H, Birchley, A, Coombes, J, Evans, JM, Fina, L, Gatica-Wilcox, B, Gilbert, L, Graham, L, Hey, J, Hilvers, E, Jones, S, Jones, H, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Taylor, S, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Vattipally, S, Freeman, TM, Hsu, SN, Lindsey, BB, James, K, Lewis, K, Tonkin-Hill, G, Tovar-Corona, JM, Cox, M, Abudahab, K, Menegazzo, M, Taylor, BEW, Yeats, CA, Mukaddas, A, Wright, DW, de Oliveira Martins, L, Colquhoun, R, Hill, V, Jackson, B, McCrone, JT, Medd, N, Scher, E, Keatley, J - P, Curran, T, Morgan, S, Maxwell, PP, Smith, PK, Eldirdiri, S, Kenyon, A, Holmes, AH, Price, JR, Wyatt, T, Mather, AE, Skvortsov, T, Hartley, JA, Guest, PM, Kitchen, C, Merrick, I, Munn, R, Bertolusso, B, Lynch, J, Vernet, G, Kirk, S, Stanley, R, Idle, G, Bradley, DT, Killough, NF, Poyner, J, Mori, M, Jones, O, Wright, V, Brooks, E, Churcher, CM, Callico, LD, Fragakis, M, Galai, K, Jermy, A, Judges, S, Markov, A, McManus, GM, Smith, KS, Thomas-McEwen, PMD, Westwick, E, Attwood, SW, Bolt, F, Davies, A, De Lacy, E, Downing, F, Edwards, S, Meadows, L, Jeremiah, S, Smith, N, Foulser, L, Patel, A, Berry, L, Boswell, T, Fleming, VM, Howson-Wells, HC, Joseph, A, Khakh, M, Lister, MM, Bird, PW, Fallon, K, Helmer, T, Odedra, M, Shaw, J, Tang, JW, Willford, NJ, Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, L - A, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, Bouzidi, KE, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, C, Chalker, V, Harrison, I, Gifford, L, Molnar, Z, Auckland, C, Evans, C, Johnson, K, Partridge, DG, Raza, M, Baker, P, Bonner, PS, Essex, S, Murray, LJ, Lawton, AI, Burton-Fanning, S, Payne, BAI, Waugh, S, Gomes, AN, Kimuli, M, Murray, DR, Ashfield, P, Dobie, D, Ashford, F, Best, A, Crawford, L, Cumley, N, Mayhew, M, Megram, O, Mirza, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Percival, B, Driscoll, M, Ensell, L, Lowe, HL, Maftei, L, Mondani, M, Chaloner, NJ, Cogger, BJ, Easton, LJ, Huckson, H, Lewis, J, Lowdon, S, Malone, CS, Munemo, F, Mutingwende, M, Nicodemi, R, Podplomyk, O, Somassa, T, Beggs, A, Richter, A, Cormie, C, Dias, J, Forrest, S, Higginson, EE, Maes, M, Young, J, Davidson, RK, Jackson, KA, Keeley, AJ, Ball, PJ, Byaruhanga, T, Chappell, JG, Dey, J, Hill, JD, Park, EJ, Fanaie, A, Hilson, RA, Yaze, G, Lo, S, Afifi, S, Beer, R, Maksimovic, J, McCluggage, K, Spellman, K, Bresner, C, Fuller, W, Marchbank, A, Workman, T, Shelest, E, Debebe, J, Sang, F, Francois, S, Gutierrez, B, Vasylyeva, TI, Flaviani, F, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Broos, A, Mair, D, Nichols, J, Nomikou, K, Tong, L, Tsatsani, I, O'Brien, S, Rushton, PS, Sanderson, R, Perkins, J, Cotton, S, Gallagher, A, Allara, E, Pearson, C, Bibby, D, Dabrera, G, Ellaby, N, Gallagher, E, Hubb, J, Lackenby, A, Lee, D, Manesis, N, Mbisa, T, Platt, S, Twohig, KA, Morgan, M, Aydin, A, Baker, DJ, Foster-Nyarko, E, Prosolek, SJ, Rudder, S, Baxter, C, Carvalho, SF, Lavin, D, Mariappan, A, Radulescu, C, Singh, A, Tang, M, Morcrette, H, Bayzid, N, Cotic, M, Balcazar, CE, Gallagher, MD, Maloney, D, Stanton, TD, Williamson, KA, Manley, R, Michelsen, ML, Sambles, CM, Studholme, DJ, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Eccles, R, Gemmell, M, Gregory, R, Hughes, M, Nelson, C, Rainbow, L, Vamos, EE, Webster, HJ, Whitehead, M, Wierzbicki, C, Angyal, A, Green, LR, Whiteley, M, Betteridge, E, Bronner, IF, Farr, BW, Goodwin, S, Lensing, SV, McCarthy, SA, Quail, MA, Rajan, D, Redshaw, NM, Scott, C, Shirley, L, Thurston, SAJ, Rowe, W, Gaskin, A, Le-Viet, T, Bonfield, J, Liddle, J, Whitwham, A, Pascall, DJ, Vink, E, Blacow, R, Bulteel, N, Campbell, A, Campbell, R, Clifford, S, Davis, C, Filipe, ADS, Sakka, NE, Fjodorova, L, Forrest, R, Goldstein, EJ, Gunson, R, Haughney, J, Holden, MTG, Honour, P, Hughes, J, James, E, Lewis, T, Lycett, S, MacLean, O, McHugh, MP, Mollett, G, Onishi, Y, Parcell, B, Ray, S, Robertson, DL, Shabaan, S, Shepherd, JG, Smollett, KL, Templeton, KE, Wastnedge, E, Wilkie, C, Williams, T, Thomson, EC, Robson, SC, Connor, TR, Loman, NJ, Golubchik, T, Martinez Nunez, RT, Bonsall, D, Rambaut, PA, Snell, LB, Livett, R, Ludden, C, Corden, S, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Johnston, I, Lythgoe, PK, Torok, ME, Goodfellow, IG, Prieto, JA, Saeed, K, Jackson, DK, Houlihan, C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Cutino-Moguel, T, Harrison, EM, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, PA, Jackson, LM, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Amato, R, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Barrett, JC, Kele, B, Aggarwal, D, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Carabelli, AM, Peacock, SJ, de Silva, TI, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Sillitoe, J, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O'Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, PD, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, PS, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, PD, Page, AJ, Martincorena, I, Aigrain, L, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Spencer Chapman, MH, Dewar, R, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, CL, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Harvey, WT, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O'Toole, A, Gourtovaia, M, Sanderson, T, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, PJ, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Heyburn, D, Charalampous, T, Alcolea-Medina, A, Kitchman, K, McNally, A, Pritchard, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Weldon, D, Catalan, J, Jones, N, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Oliver, K, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, Anna, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, Swindells, E, Turnbull, R, Sloan, TJ, Bosworth, A, Hutchings, S, Pymont, HM, Casey, A, Ratcliffe, L, Jones, CR, Knight, BA, Haque, T, Hart, J, Irish-Tavares, D, Witele, E, Mower, C, Watson, LK, Collins, J, Eltringham, G, Crudgington, D, Macklin, B, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Lucaci, AO, McClure, PC, Carlile, M, Holmes, N, Storey, N, Rooke, S, Yebra, G, Craine, N, Perry, M, Alikhan, N - F, Bridgett, S, Cook, KF, Fearn, C, Goudarzi, S, Lyons, RA, Haldenby, ST, Durham, J, Leonard, S, Davies, RM, Batra, R, Blane, B, Spyer, MJ, Smith, P, Yavus, M, Williams, RJ, Mahanama, AI, Samaraweera, B, Girgis, ST, Hansford, SE, Green, A, Beaver, C, Bellis, KL, Dorman, MJ, Kay, S, Prestwood, L, Rajatileka, S, Quick, J, Poplawski, R, Reynolds, N, Mack, A, Morriss, A, Whalley, T, Patel, B, Georgana, I, Hosmillo, M, Pinckert, ML, Stockton, J, Henderson, JH, Hollis, A, Stanley, W, Yew, WC, Myers, R, Thornton, A, Adams, A, Annett, T, Asad, H, Birchley, A, Coombes, J, Evans, JM, Fina, L, Gatica-Wilcox, B, Gilbert, L, Graham, L, Hey, J, Hilvers, E, Jones, S, Jones, H, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Taylor, S, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Vattipally, S, Freeman, TM, Hsu, SN, Lindsey, BB, James, K, Lewis, K, Tonkin-Hill, G, Tovar-Corona, JM, Cox, M, Abudahab, K, Menegazzo, M, Taylor, BEW, Yeats, CA, Mukaddas, A, Wright, DW, de Oliveira Martins, L, Colquhoun, R, Hill, V, Jackson, B, McCrone, JT, Medd, N, Scher, E, Keatley, J - P, Curran, T, Morgan, S, Maxwell, PP, Smith, PK, Eldirdiri, S, Kenyon, A, Holmes, AH, Price, JR, Wyatt, T, Mather, AE, Skvortsov, T, Hartley, JA, Guest, PM, Kitchen, C, Merrick, I, Munn, R, Bertolusso, B, Lynch, J, Vernet, G, Kirk, S, Stanley, R, Idle, G, Bradley, DT, Killough, NF, Poyner, J, Mori, M, Jones, O, Wright, V, Brooks, E, Churcher, CM, Callico, LD, Fragakis, M, Galai, K, Jermy, A, Judges, S, Markov, A, McManus, GM, Smith, KS, Thomas-McEwen, PMD, Westwick, E, Attwood, SW, Bolt, F, Davies, A, De Lacy, E, Downing, F, Edwards, S, Meadows, L, Jeremiah, S, Smith, N, Foulser, L, Patel, A, Berry, L, Boswell, T, Fleming, VM, Howson-Wells, HC, Joseph, A, Khakh, M, Lister, MM, Bird, PW, Fallon, K, Helmer, T, Odedra, M, Shaw, J, Tang, JW, Willford, NJ, Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, L - A, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, Bouzidi, KE, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, C, Chalker, V, Harrison, I, Gifford, L, Molnar, Z, Auckland, C, Evans, C, Johnson, K, Partridge, DG, Raza, M, Baker, P, Bonner, PS, Essex, S, Murray, LJ, Lawton, AI, Burton-Fanning, S, Payne, BAI, Waugh, S, Gomes, AN, Kimuli, M, Murray, DR, Ashfield, P, Dobie, D, Ashford, F, Best, A, Crawford, L, Cumley, N, Mayhew, M, Megram, O, Mirza, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Percival, B, Driscoll, M, Ensell, L, Lowe, HL, Maftei, L, Mondani, M, Chaloner, NJ, Cogger, BJ, Easton, LJ, Huckson, H, Lewis, J, Lowdon, S, Malone, CS, Munemo, F, Mutingwende, M, Nicodemi, R, Podplomyk, O, Somassa, T, Beggs, A, Richter, A, Cormie, C, Dias, J, Forrest, S, Higginson, EE, Maes, M, Young, J, Davidson, RK, Jackson, KA, Keeley, AJ, Ball, PJ, Byaruhanga, T, Chappell, JG, Dey, J, Hill, JD, Park, EJ, Fanaie, A, Hilson, RA, Yaze, G, Lo, S, Afifi, S, Beer, R, Maksimovic, J, McCluggage, K, Spellman, K, Bresner, C, Fuller, W, Marchbank, A, Workman, T, Shelest, E, Debebe, J, Sang, F, Francois, S, Gutierrez, B, Vasylyeva, TI, Flaviani, F, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Broos, A, Mair, D, Nichols, J, Nomikou, K, Tong, L, Tsatsani, I, O'Brien, S, Rushton, PS, Sanderson, R, Perkins, J, Cotton, S, Gallagher, A, Allara, E, Pearson, C, Bibby, D, Dabrera, G, Ellaby, N, Gallagher, E, Hubb, J, Lackenby, A, Lee, D, Manesis, N, Mbisa, T, Platt, S, Twohig, KA, Morgan, M, Aydin, A, Baker, DJ, Foster-Nyarko, E, Prosolek, SJ, Rudder, S, Baxter, C, Carvalho, SF, Lavin, D, Mariappan, A, Radulescu, C, Singh, A, Tang, M, Morcrette, H, Bayzid, N, Cotic, M, Balcazar, CE, Gallagher, MD, Maloney, D, Stanton, TD, Williamson, KA, Manley, R, Michelsen, ML, Sambles, CM, Studholme, DJ, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Eccles, R, Gemmell, M, Gregory, R, Hughes, M, Nelson, C, Rainbow, L, Vamos, EE, Webster, HJ, Whitehead, M, Wierzbicki, C, Angyal, A, Green, LR, Whiteley, M, Betteridge, E, Bronner, IF, Farr, BW, Goodwin, S, Lensing, SV, McCarthy, SA, Quail, MA, Rajan, D, Redshaw, NM, Scott, C, Shirley, L, Thurston, SAJ, Rowe, W, Gaskin, A, Le-Viet, T, Bonfield, J, Liddle, J, and Whitwham, A
Abstract: Objectives The SARS-CoV-2 Alpha variant was associated with increased transmission relative to other variants present at the time of its emergence and several studies have shown an association between Alpha variant infection and increased hospitalisation and 28-day mortality. However, none have addressed the impact on maximum severity of illness in the general population classified by the level of respiratory support required, or death. We aimed to do this. Methods In this retrospective multi-centre clinical cohort sub-study of the COG-UK consortium, 1475 samples from Scottish hospitalised and community cases collected between 1st November 2020 and 30th January 2021 were sequenced. We matched sequence data to clinical outcomes as the Alpha variant became dominant in Scotland and modelled the association between Alpha variant infection and severe disease using a 4-point scale of maximum severity by 28 days: 1. no respiratory support, 2. supplemental oxygen, 3. ventilation and 4. death. Results Our cumulative generalised linear mixed model analyses found evidence (cumulative odds ratio: 1.40, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.93) of a positive association between increased clinical severity and lineage (Alpha variant versus pre-Alpha variants). Conclusions The Alpha variant was associated with more severe clinical disease in the Scottish population than co-circulating lineages.

38. Tracking SARS-CoV-2 mutations and variants through the COG-UK-Mutation Explorer

Author: Wright, DW, Harvey, WT, Hughes, J, Cox, M, Peacock, TP, Colquhoun, R, Jackson, B, Orton, R, Nielsen, M, Hsu, NS, Harrison, EM, de Silva, TI, Rambaut, A, Peacock, SJ, Robertson, DL, Carabelli, AM, Robson, SC, Connor, TR, Loman, NJ, Golubchik, T, Martinez Nunez, RT, Bonsall, D, Snell, LB, Livett, R, Ludden, C, Corden, S, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Johnston, I, Lythgoe, K, Torok, ME, Goodfellow, IG, Prieto, JA, Saeed, K, Jackson, DK, Houlihan, C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Thomson, EC, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, PA, Jackson, LM, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Amato, R, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Barrett, JC, Aggarwal, D, Shepherd, JG, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Templeton, KE, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Sillitoe, J, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O'Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, D, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Holden, MTG, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, S, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, D, Page, AJ, Martincorena, I, Aigrain, L, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Spencer Chapman, MH, Dewar, R, McHugh, MP, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, CL, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O'Toole, Á, Gourtovaia, M, Sanderson, T, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, J, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Heyburn, D, Kitchman, K, McNally, A, Pritchard, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Weldon, D, Catalan, J, Jones, N, da Silva Filipe, A, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Oliver, K, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, A, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, Swindells, E, Turnbull, R, Sloan, TJ, Bosworth, A, Hutchings, S, Pymont, HM, Casey, A, Ratcliffe, L, Jones, CR, Knight, BA, Haque, T, Hart, J, Irish-Tavares, D, Witele, E, Mower, C, Watson, LK, Collins, J, Eltringham, G, Crudgington, D, Macklin, B, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Lucaci, AO, McClure, PC, Carlile, M, Holmes, N, Storey, N, Rooke, S, Yebra, G, Craine, N, Perry, M, Alikhan, N - F, Bridgett, S, Cook, KF, Fearn, C, Goudarzi, S, Lyons, RA, Williams, T, Haldenby, ST, Durham, J, Leonard, S, Davies, RM, Batra, R, Blane, B, Spyer, MJ, Smith, P, Yavus, M, Williams, RJ, Mahanama, AIK, Samaraweera, B, Girgis, ST, Hansford, SE, Green, A, Beaver, C, Bellis, KL, Dorman, MJ, Kay, S, Prestwood, L, Rajatileka, S, Quick, J, Poplawski, R, Reynolds, N, Mack, A, Morriss, A, Whalley, T, Patel, B, Georgana, I, Hosmillo, M, Pinckert, ML, Stockton, J, Henderson, JH, Hollis, A, Stanley, W, Yew, WC, Myers, R, Thornton, A, Adams, A, Annett, T, Asad, H, Birchley, A, Coombes, J, Evans, JM, Fina, L, Gatica-Wilcox, B, Gilbert, L, Graham, L, Hey, J, Hilvers, E, Jones, S, Jones, H, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Taylor, S, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Goldstein, EJ, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Pascall, D, Vattipally, S, Freeman, TM, Hsu, SN, Lindsey, BB, James, K, Lewis, K, Tonkin-Hill, G, Tovar-Corona, JM, Abudahab, K, Menegazzo, M, Taylor, BEW, Yeats, CA, Mukaddas, A, de Oliveira Martins, L, Hill, V, McCrone, JT, Medd, N, Scher, E, Keatley, J - P, Curran, T, Morgan, S, Maxwell, P, Smith, K, Eldirdiri, S, Kenyon, A, Holmes, AH, Price, JR, Wyatt, T, Mather, AE, Skvortsov, T, Hartley, JA, Guest, M, Kitchen, C, Merrick, I, Munn, R, Bertolusso, B, Lynch, J, Vernet, G, Kirk, S, Wastnedge, E, Stanley, R, Idle, G, Bradley, DT, Poyner, J, Mori, M, Jones, O, Wright, V, Brooks, E, Churcher, CM, Fragakis, M, Galai, K, Jermy, A, Judges, S, McManus, GM, Smith, KS, Westwick, E, Attwood, SW, Bolt, F, Davies, A, De Lacy, E, Downing, F, Edwards, S, Meadows, L, Jeremiah, S, Smith, N, Foulser, L, Charalampous, T, Patel, A, Berry, L, Boswell, T, Fleming, VM, Howson-Wells, HC, Joseph, A, Khakh, M, Lister, MM, Bird, PW, Fallon, K, Helmer, T, Odedra, M, Shaw, J, Tang, JW, Willford, NJ, Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, L - A, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Alcolea-Medina, A, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, El Bouzidi, K, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Blacow, R, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, C, Chalker, V, Harrison, I, Gifford, L, Molnar, Z, Auckland, C, Evans, C, Johnson, K, Partridge, DG, Raza, M, Baker, P, Bonner, S, Essex, S, Murray, LJ, Lawton, AI, Burton-Fanning, S, Payne, BAI, Waugh, S, Gomes, AN, Kimuli, M, Murray, DR, Ashfield, P, Dobie, D, Ashford, F, Best, A, Crawford, L, Cumley, N, Mayhew, M, Megram, O, Mirza, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Percival, B, Driscoll, M, Ensell, L, Lowe, HL, Maftei, L, Mondani, M, Chaloner, NJ, Cogger, BJ, Easton, LJ, Huck-Son, H, Lewis, J, Lowdon, S, Malone, CS, Munemo, F, Mutingwende, M, Nicodemi, R, Podplomyk, O, Somassa, T, Beggs, A, Richter, A, Cormie, C, Dias, J, Forrest, S, Higginson, EE, Maes, M, Young, J, Davidson, RK, Jackson, KA, Turtle, L, Keeley, AJ, Ball, J, Byaruhanga, T, Chappell, JG, Dey, J, Hill, JD, Park, EJ, Fanaie, A, Hilson, RA, Yaze, G, Lo, S, Afifi, S, Beer, R, Maksimovic, J, McCluggage, K, Spellman, K, Bresner, C, Fuller, W, Marchbank, A, Workman, T, Shelest, E, Debebe, J, Sang, F, Zamudio, ME, Francois, S, Gutierrez, B, Vasylyeva, TI, Flaviani, F, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Smollett, KL, Broos, A, Mair, D, Nichols, J, Nomikou, K, Tong, L, Tsatsani, I, O'Brien, S, Rush-Ton, S, Sanderson, R, Perkins, J, Cotton, S, Gallagher, A, Allara, E, Pearson, C, Bibby, D, Dabrera, G, Ellaby, N, Gallagher, E, Hubb, J, Lackenby, A, Lee, D, Manesis, N, Mbisa, T, Platt, S, Twohig, KA, Morgan, M, Aydin, A, Baker, DJ, Foster-Nyarko, E, Prosolek, SJ, Rudder, S, Baxter, C, Carvalho, SF, Lavin, D, Mariappan, A, Radulescu, C, Singh, A, Tang, M, Morcrette, H, Bayzid, N, Cotic, M, Balcazar, CE, Gallagher, MD, Maloney, D, Stanton, TD, Williamson, KA, Manley, R, Michelsen, ML, Sambles, CM, Studholme, DJ, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Eccles, R, Gemmell, M, Gregory, R, Hughes, M, Nelson, C, Rainbow, L, Vamos, EE, Webster, HJ, Whitehead, M, Wierzbicki, C, Angyal, A, Green, LR, Whiteley, M, Betteridge, E, Bronner, IF, Farr, BW, Goodwin, S, Lensing, SV, McCarthy, SA, Quail, MA, Rajan, D, Redshaw, NM, Scott, C, Shirley, L, Thurston, SAJ, Rowe, W, Gaskin, A, Le-Viet, T, Bonfield, J, Liddle, J, Whitwham, A, Wright, DW, Harvey, WT, Hughes, J, Cox, M, Peacock, TP, Colquhoun, R, Jackson, B, Orton, R, Nielsen, M, Hsu, NS, Harrison, EM, de Silva, TI, Rambaut, A, Peacock, SJ, Robertson, DL, Carabelli, AM, Robson, SC, Connor, TR, Loman, NJ, Golubchik, T, Martinez Nunez, RT, Bonsall, D, Snell, LB, Livett, R, Ludden, C, Corden, S, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Johnston, I, Lythgoe, K, Torok, ME, Goodfellow, IG, Prieto, JA, Saeed, K, Jackson, DK, Houlihan, C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Thomson, EC, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, PA, Jackson, LM, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Amato, R, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Barrett, JC, Aggarwal, D, Shepherd, JG, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Templeton, KE, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Sillitoe, J, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O'Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, D, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Holden, MTG, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, S, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, D, Page, AJ, Martincorena, I, Aigrain, L, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Spencer Chapman, MH, Dewar, R, McHugh, MP, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, CL, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O'Toole, Á, Gourtovaia, M, Sanderson, T, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, J, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Heyburn, D, Kitchman, K, McNally, A, Pritchard, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Weldon, D, Catalan, J, Jones, N, da Silva Filipe, A, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Oliver, K, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, A, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, Swindells, E, Turnbull, R, Sloan, TJ, Bosworth, A, Hutchings, S, Pymont, HM, Casey, A, Ratcliffe, L, Jones, CR, Knight, BA, Haque, T, Hart, J, Irish-Tavares, D, Witele, E, Mower, C, Watson, LK, Collins, J, Eltringham, G, Crudgington, D, Macklin, B, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Lucaci, AO, McClure, PC, Carlile, M, Holmes, N, Storey, N, Rooke, S, Yebra, G, Craine, N, Perry, M, Alikhan, N - F, Bridgett, S, Cook, KF, Fearn, C, Goudarzi, S, Lyons, RA, Williams, T, Haldenby, ST, Durham, J, Leonard, S, Davies, RM, Batra, R, Blane, B, Spyer, MJ, Smith, P, Yavus, M, Williams, RJ, Mahanama, AIK, Samaraweera, B, Girgis, ST, Hansford, SE, Green, A, Beaver, C, Bellis, KL, Dorman, MJ, Kay, S, Prestwood, L, Rajatileka, S, Quick, J, Poplawski, R, Reynolds, N, Mack, A, Morriss, A, Whalley, T, Patel, B, Georgana, I, Hosmillo, M, Pinckert, ML, Stockton, J, Henderson, JH, Hollis, A, Stanley, W, Yew, WC, Myers, R, Thornton, A, Adams, A, Annett, T, Asad, H, Birchley, A, Coombes, J, Evans, JM, Fina, L, Gatica-Wilcox, B, Gilbert, L, Graham, L, Hey, J, Hilvers, E, Jones, S, Jones, H, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Taylor, S, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Goldstein, EJ, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Pascall, D, Vattipally, S, Freeman, TM, Hsu, SN, Lindsey, BB, James, K, Lewis, K, Tonkin-Hill, G, Tovar-Corona, JM, Abudahab, K, Menegazzo, M, Taylor, BEW, Yeats, CA, Mukaddas, A, de Oliveira Martins, L, Hill, V, McCrone, JT, Medd, N, Scher, E, Keatley, J - P, Curran, T, Morgan, S, Maxwell, P, Smith, K, Eldirdiri, S, Kenyon, A, Holmes, AH, Price, JR, Wyatt, T, Mather, AE, Skvortsov, T, Hartley, JA, Guest, M, Kitchen, C, Merrick, I, Munn, R, Bertolusso, B, Lynch, J, Vernet, G, Kirk, S, Wastnedge, E, Stanley, R, Idle, G, Bradley, DT, Poyner, J, Mori, M, Jones, O, Wright, V, Brooks, E, Churcher, CM, Fragakis, M, Galai, K, Jermy, A, Judges, S, McManus, GM, Smith, KS, Westwick, E, Attwood, SW, Bolt, F, Davies, A, De Lacy, E, Downing, F, Edwards, S, Meadows, L, Jeremiah, S, Smith, N, Foulser, L, Charalampous, T, Patel, A, Berry, L, Boswell, T, Fleming, VM, Howson-Wells, HC, Joseph, A, Khakh, M, Lister, MM, Bird, PW, Fallon, K, Helmer, T, Odedra, M, Shaw, J, Tang, JW, Willford, NJ, Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, L - A, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Alcolea-Medina, A, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, El Bouzidi, K, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Blacow, R, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, C, Chalker, V, Harrison, I, Gifford, L, Molnar, Z, Auckland, C, Evans, C, Johnson, K, Partridge, DG, Raza, M, Baker, P, Bonner, S, Essex, S, Murray, LJ, Lawton, AI, Burton-Fanning, S, Payne, BAI, Waugh, S, Gomes, AN, Kimuli, M, Murray, DR, Ashfield, P, Dobie, D, Ashford, F, Best, A, Crawford, L, Cumley, N, Mayhew, M, Megram, O, Mirza, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Percival, B, Driscoll, M, Ensell, L, Lowe, HL, Maftei, L, Mondani, M, Chaloner, NJ, Cogger, BJ, Easton, LJ, Huck-Son, H, Lewis, J, Lowdon, S, Malone, CS, Munemo, F, Mutingwende, M, Nicodemi, R, Podplomyk, O, Somassa, T, Beggs, A, Richter, A, Cormie, C, Dias, J, Forrest, S, Higginson, EE, Maes, M, Young, J, Davidson, RK, Jackson, KA, Turtle, L, Keeley, AJ, Ball, J, Byaruhanga, T, Chappell, JG, Dey, J, Hill, JD, Park, EJ, Fanaie, A, Hilson, RA, Yaze, G, Lo, S, Afifi, S, Beer, R, Maksimovic, J, McCluggage, K, Spellman, K, Bresner, C, Fuller, W, Marchbank, A, Workman, T, Shelest, E, Debebe, J, Sang, F, Zamudio, ME, Francois, S, Gutierrez, B, Vasylyeva, TI, Flaviani, F, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Smollett, KL, Broos, A, Mair, D, Nichols, J, Nomikou, K, Tong, L, Tsatsani, I, O'Brien, S, Rush-Ton, S, Sanderson, R, Perkins, J, Cotton, S, Gallagher, A, Allara, E, Pearson, C, Bibby, D, Dabrera, G, Ellaby, N, Gallagher, E, Hubb, J, Lackenby, A, Lee, D, Manesis, N, Mbisa, T, Platt, S, Twohig, KA, Morgan, M, Aydin, A, Baker, DJ, Foster-Nyarko, E, Prosolek, SJ, Rudder, S, Baxter, C, Carvalho, SF, Lavin, D, Mariappan, A, Radulescu, C, Singh, A, Tang, M, Morcrette, H, Bayzid, N, Cotic, M, Balcazar, CE, Gallagher, MD, Maloney, D, Stanton, TD, Williamson, KA, Manley, R, Michelsen, ML, Sambles, CM, Studholme, DJ, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Eccles, R, Gemmell, M, Gregory, R, Hughes, M, Nelson, C, Rainbow, L, Vamos, EE, Webster, HJ, Whitehead, M, Wierzbicki, C, Angyal, A, Green, LR, Whiteley, M, Betteridge, E, Bronner, IF, Farr, BW, Goodwin, S, Lensing, SV, McCarthy, SA, Quail, MA, Rajan, D, Redshaw, NM, Scott, C, Shirley, L, Thurston, SAJ, Rowe, W, Gaskin, A, Le-Viet, T, Bonfield, J, Liddle, J, and Whitwham, A
Abstract: COG-UK Mutation Explorer (COG-UK-ME, https://sars2.cvr.gla.ac.uk/cog-uk/—last accessed date 16 March 2022) is a web resource that displays knowledge and analyses on SARS-CoV-2 virus genome mutations and variants circulating in the UK, with a focus on the observed amino acid replacements that have an antigenic role in the context of the human humoral and cellular immune response. This analysis is based on more than 2 million genome sequences (as of March 2022) for UK SARS-CoV-2 data held in the CLIMB-COVID centralised data environment. COG-UK-ME curates these data and displays analyses that are cross-referenced to experimental data collated from the primary literature. The aim is to track mutations of immunological importance that are accumulating in current variants of concern and variants of interest that could alter the neutralising activity of monoclonal antibodies (mAbs), convalescent sera, and vaccines. Changes in epitopes recognised by T cells, including those where reduced T cell binding has been demonstrated, are reported. Mutations that have been shown to confer SARS-CoV-2 resistance to antiviral drugs are also included. Using visualisation tools, COG-UK-ME also allows users to identify the emergence of variants carrying mutations that could decrease the neutralising activity of both mAbs present in therapeutic cocktails, e.g. Ronapreve. COG-UK-ME tracks changes in the frequency of combinations of mutations and brings together the curated literature on the impact of those mutations on various functional aspects of the virus and therapeutics. Given the unpredictable nature of SARS-CoV-2 as exemplified by yet another variant of concern, Omicron, continued surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 remains imperative to monitor virus evolution linked to the efficacy of therapeutics.

39. Spatial growth rate of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages in England, September 2020-December 2021

Author: Smallman-Raynor, MR, Cliff, AD, Robson, SC, Connor, TR, Loman, NJ, Golubchik, T, Martinez Nunez, RT, Bonsall, D, Rambaut, A, Snell, LB, Livett, R, Ludden, C, Corden, S, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Johnston, I, Lythgoe, K, Torok, ME, Goodfellow, IG, Prieto, JA, Saeed, K, Jackson, DK, Houlihan, C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Thomson, EC, Harrison, EM, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, PA, Jackson, LM, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Amato, R, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Barrett, JC, Aggarwal, D, Shepherd, JG, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Carabelli, AM, Templeton, KE, de Silva, TI, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Sillitoe, J, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O'Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, D, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Holden, MTG, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, S, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, D, Robertson, DL, Page, AJ, Martincorena, I, Aigrain, L, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Spencer Chapman, MH, Dewar, R, McHugh, MP, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, CL, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Harvey, WT, Hughes, J, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O'Toole, Á, Gourtovaia, M, Sanderson, T, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, J, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Peacock, SJ, Heyburn, D, Kitchman, K, McNally, A, Pritchard, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Weldon, D, Catalan, J, Jones, N, da Silva Filipe, A, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Oliver, K, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, A, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, Swindells, E, Turnbull, R, Sloan, TJ, Bosworth, A, Hutchings, S, Pymont, HM, Casey, A, Ratcliffe, L, Jones, CR, Knight, BA, Haque, T, Hart, J, Irish-Tavares, D, Witele, E, Mower, C, Watson, LK, Collins, J, Eltringham, G, Crudgington, D, Macklin, B, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Lucaci, AO, McClure, PC, Carlile, M, Holmes, N, Storey, N, Rooke, S, Yebra, G, Craine, N, Perry, M, Alikhan, N - F, Bridgett, S, Cook, KF, Fearn, C, Goudarzi, S, Lyons, RA, Williams, T, Haldenby, ST, Durham, J, Leonard, S, Davies, RM, Batra, R, Blane, B, Spyer, MJ, Smith, P, Yavus, M, Williams, RJ, Mahanama, AIK, Samaraweera, B, Girgis, ST, Hansford, SE, Green, A, Beaver, C, Bellis, KL, Dorman, MJ, Kay, S, Prestwood, L, Rajatileka, S, Quick, J, Poplawski, R, Reynolds, N, Mack, A, Morriss, A, Whalley, T, Patel, B, Georgana, I, Hosmillo, M, Pinckert, ML, Stockton, J, Henderson, JH, Hollis, A, Stanley, W, Yew, WC, Myers, R, Thornton, A, Adams, A, Annett, T, Asad, H, Birchley, A, Coombes, J, Evans, JM, Fina, L, Gatica-Wilcox, B, Gilbert, L, Graham, L, Hey, J, Hilvers, E, Jones, S, Jones, H, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Taylor, S, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Goldstein, EJ, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Pascall, D, Vattipally, S, Freeman, TM, Hsu, SN, Lindsey, BB, James, K, Lewis, K, Tonkin-Hill, G, Tovar-Corona, JM, Cox, M, Abudahab, K, Menegazzo, M, Taylor, BEW, Yeats, CA, Mukaddas, A, Wright, DW, de Oliveira Martins, L, Colquhoun, R, Hill, V, Jackson, B, McCrone, JT, Medd, N, Scher, E, Keatley, J - P, Curran, T, Morgan, S, Maxwell, P, Smith, K, Eldirdiri, S, Kenyon, A, Holmes, AH, Price, JR, Wyatt, T, Mather, AE, Skvortsov, T, Hartley, JA, Guest, M, Kitchen, C, Merrick, I, Munn, R, Bertolusso, B, Lynch, J, Vernet, G, Kirk, S, Wastnedge, E, Stanley, R, Idle, G, Bradley, DT, Poyner, J, Mori, M, Jones, O, Wright, V, Brooks, E, Churcher, CM, Fragakis, M, Galai, K, Jermy, A, Judges, S, McManus, GM, Smith, KS, Westwick, E, Attwood, SW, Bolt, F, Davies, A, De Lacy, E, Downing, F, Edwards, S, Meadows, L, Jeremiah, S, Smith, N, Foulser, L, Charalampous, T, Patel, A, Berry, L, Boswell, T, Fleming, VM, Howson-Wells, HC, Joseph, A, Khakh, M, Lister, MM, Bird, PW, Fallon, K, Helmer, T, Odedra, M, Shaw, J, Tang, JW, Willford, NJ, Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, L - A, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Alcolea-Medina, A, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, El Bouzidi, K, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Blacow, R, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, C, Chalker, V, Harrison, I, Gifford, L, Molnar, Z, Auckland, C, Evans, C, Johnson, K, Partridge, DG, Raza, M, Baker, P, Bonner, S, Essex, S, Murray, LJ, Lawton, AI, Burton-Fanning, S, Payne, BAI, Waugh, S, Gomes, AN, Kimuli, M, Murray, DR, Ashfield, P, Dobie, D, Ashford, F, Best, A, Crawford, L, Cumley, N, Mayhew, M, Megram, O, Mirza, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Percival, B, Driscoll, M, Ensell, L, Lowe, HL, Maftei, L, Mondani, M, Chaloner, NJ, Cogger, BJ, Easton, LJ, Huckson, H, Lewis, J, Lowdon, S, Malone, CS, Munemo, F, Mutingwende, M, Nicodemi, R, Podplomyk, O, Somassa, T, Beggs, A, Richter, A, Cormie, C, Dias, J, Forrest, S, Higginson, EE, Maes, M, Young, J, Davidson, RK, Jackson, KA, Turtle, L, Keeley, AJ, Ball, J, Byaruhanga, T, Chappell, JG, Dey, J, Hill, JD, Park, EJ, Fanaie, A, Hilson, RA, Yaze, G, Lo, S, Afifi, S, Beer, R, Maksimovic, J, McCluggage, K, Spellman, K, Bresner, C, Fuller, W, Marchbank, A, Workman, T, Shelest, E, Debebe, J, Sang, F, Zamudio, ME, Francois, S, Gutierrez, B, Vasylyeva, TI, Flaviani, F, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Smollett, KL, Broos, A, Mair, D, Nichols, J, Nomikou, K, Tong, L, Tsatsani, I, O'Brien, S, Rushton, S, Sanderson, R, Perkins, J, Cotton, S, Gallagher, A, Allara, E, Pearson, C, Bibby, D, Dabrera, G, Ellaby, N, Gallagher, E, Hubb, J, Lackenby, A, Lee, D, Manesis, N, Mbisa, T, Platt, S, Twohig, KA, Morgan, M, Aydin, A, Baker, DJ, Foster-Nyarko, E, Prosolek, SJ, Rudder, S, Baxter, C, Carvalho, SF, Lavin, D, Mariappan, A, Radulescu, C, Singh, A, Tang, M, Morcrette, H, Bayzid, N, Cotic, M, Balcazar, CE, Gallagher, MD, Maloney, D, Stanton, TD, Williamson, KA, Manley, R, Michelsen, ML, Sambles, CM, Studholme, DJ, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Eccles, R, Gemmell, M, Gregory, R, Hughes, M, Nelson, C, Rainbow, L, Vamos, EE, Webster, HJ, Whitehead, M, Wierzbicki, C, Angyal, A, Green, LR, Whiteley, M, Betteridge, E, Bronner, IF, Farr, BW, Goodwin, S, Lensing, SV, McCarthy, SA, Quail, MA, Rajan, D, Redshaw, NM, Scott, C, Shirley, L, Thurston, SAJ, Rowe, W, Gaskin, A, Le-Viet, T, Bonfield, J, Liddle, J, Whitwham, A, Smallman-Raynor, MR, Cliff, AD, Robson, SC, Connor, TR, Loman, NJ, Golubchik, T, Martinez Nunez, RT, Bonsall, D, Rambaut, A, Snell, LB, Livett, R, Ludden, C, Corden, S, Nastouli, E, Nebbia, G, Johnston, I, Lythgoe, K, Torok, ME, Goodfellow, IG, Prieto, JA, Saeed, K, Jackson, DK, Houlihan, C, Frampton, D, Hamilton, WL, Witney, AA, Bucca, G, Pope, CF, Moore, C, Thomson, EC, Harrison, EM, Smith, CP, Rogan, F, Beckwith, SM, Murray, A, Singleton, D, Eastick, K, Sheridan, LA, Randell, PA, Jackson, LM, Ariani, CV, Gonçalves, S, Fairley, DJ, Loose, MW, Watkins, J, Moses, S, Nicholls, S, Bull, M, Amato, R, Smith, DL, Aanensen, DM, Barrett, JC, Aggarwal, D, Shepherd, JG, Curran, MD, Parmar, S, Parker, MD, Williams, C, Glaysher, S, Underwood, AP, Bashton, M, Pacchiarini, N, Loveson, KF, Byott, M, Carabelli, AM, Templeton, KE, de Silva, TI, Wang, D, Langford, CF, Sillitoe, J, Gunson, RN, Cottrell, S, O'Grady, J, Kwiatkowski, D, Lillie, PJ, Cortes, N, Moore, N, Thomas, C, Burns, PJ, Mahungu, TW, Liggett, S, Beckett, AH, Holden, MTG, Levett, LJ, Osman, H, Hassan-Ibrahim, MO, Simpson, DA, Chand, M, Gupta, RK, Darby, AC, Paterson, S, Pybus, OG, Volz, EM, de Angelis, D, Robertson, DL, Page, AJ, Martincorena, I, Aigrain, L, Bassett, AR, Wong, N, Taha, Y, Erkiert, MJ, Spencer Chapman, MH, Dewar, R, McHugh, MP, Mookerjee, S, Aplin, S, Harvey, M, Sass, T, Umpleby, H, Wheeler, H, McKenna, JP, Warne, B, Taylor, JF, Chaudhry, Y, Izuagbe, R, Jahun, AS, Young, GR, McMurray, CL, McCann, CM, Nelson, A, Elliott, S, Lowe, H, Price, A, Crown, MR, Rey, S, Roy, S, Temperton, B, Shaaban, S, Hesketh, AR, Laing, KG, Monahan, IM, Heaney, J, Pelosi, E, Silviera, S, Wilson-Davies, E, Fryer, H, Adams, H, du Plessis, L, Johnson, R, Harvey, WT, Hughes, J, Orton, RJ, Spurgin, LG, Bourgeois, Y, Ruis, C, O'Toole, Á, Gourtovaia, M, Sanderson, T, Fraser, C, Edgeworth, J, Breuer, J, Michell, SL, Todd, JA, John, M, Buck, D, Gajee, K, Kay, GL, Peacock, SJ, Heyburn, D, Kitchman, K, McNally, A, Pritchard, DT, Dervisevic, S, Muir, P, Robinson, E, Vipond, BB, Ramadan, NA, Jeanes, C, Weldon, D, Catalan, J, Jones, N, da Silva Filipe, A, Fuchs, M, Miskelly, J, Jeffries, AR, Oliver, K, Park, NR, Ash, A, Koshy, C, Barrow, M, Buchan, SL, Mantzouratou, A, Clark, G, Holmes, CW, Campbell, S, Davis, T, Tan, NK, Brown, JR, Harris, KA, Kidd, SP, Grant, PR, Xu-McCrae, L, Cox, A, Madona, P, Pond, M, Withell, KT, Graham, C, Denton-Smith, R, Swindells, E, Turnbull, R, Sloan, TJ, Bosworth, A, Hutchings, S, Pymont, HM, Casey, A, Ratcliffe, L, Jones, CR, Knight, BA, Haque, T, Hart, J, Irish-Tavares, D, Witele, E, Mower, C, Watson, LK, Collins, J, Eltringham, G, Crudgington, D, Macklin, B, Iturriza-Gomara, M, Lucaci, AO, McClure, PC, Carlile, M, Holmes, N, Storey, N, Rooke, S, Yebra, G, Craine, N, Perry, M, Alikhan, N - F, Bridgett, S, Cook, KF, Fearn, C, Goudarzi, S, Lyons, RA, Williams, T, Haldenby, ST, Durham, J, Leonard, S, Davies, RM, Batra, R, Blane, B, Spyer, MJ, Smith, P, Yavus, M, Williams, RJ, Mahanama, AIK, Samaraweera, B, Girgis, ST, Hansford, SE, Green, A, Beaver, C, Bellis, KL, Dorman, MJ, Kay, S, Prestwood, L, Rajatileka, S, Quick, J, Poplawski, R, Reynolds, N, Mack, A, Morriss, A, Whalley, T, Patel, B, Georgana, I, Hosmillo, M, Pinckert, ML, Stockton, J, Henderson, JH, Hollis, A, Stanley, W, Yew, WC, Myers, R, Thornton, A, Adams, A, Annett, T, Asad, H, Birchley, A, Coombes, J, Evans, JM, Fina, L, Gatica-Wilcox, B, Gilbert, L, Graham, L, Hey, J, Hilvers, E, Jones, S, Jones, H, Kumziene-Summerhayes, S, McKerr, C, Powell, J, Pugh, G, Taylor, S, Trotter, AJ, Williams, CA, Kermack, LM, Foulkes, BH, Gallis, M, Hornsby, HR, Louka, SF, Pohare, M, Wolverson, P, Zhang, P, MacIntyre-Cockett, G, Trebes, A, Moll, RJ, Ferguson, L, Goldstein, EJ, Maclean, A, Tomb, R, Starinskij, I, Thomson, L, Southgate, J, Kraemer, MUG, Raghwani, J, Zarebski, AE, Boyd, O, Geidelberg, L, Illingworth, CJ, Jackson, C, Pascall, D, Vattipally, S, Freeman, TM, Hsu, SN, Lindsey, BB, James, K, Lewis, K, Tonkin-Hill, G, Tovar-Corona, JM, Cox, M, Abudahab, K, Menegazzo, M, Taylor, BEW, Yeats, CA, Mukaddas, A, Wright, DW, de Oliveira Martins, L, Colquhoun, R, Hill, V, Jackson, B, McCrone, JT, Medd, N, Scher, E, Keatley, J - P, Curran, T, Morgan, S, Maxwell, P, Smith, K, Eldirdiri, S, Kenyon, A, Holmes, AH, Price, JR, Wyatt, T, Mather, AE, Skvortsov, T, Hartley, JA, Guest, M, Kitchen, C, Merrick, I, Munn, R, Bertolusso, B, Lynch, J, Vernet, G, Kirk, S, Wastnedge, E, Stanley, R, Idle, G, Bradley, DT, Poyner, J, Mori, M, Jones, O, Wright, V, Brooks, E, Churcher, CM, Fragakis, M, Galai, K, Jermy, A, Judges, S, McManus, GM, Smith, KS, Westwick, E, Attwood, SW, Bolt, F, Davies, A, De Lacy, E, Downing, F, Edwards, S, Meadows, L, Jeremiah, S, Smith, N, Foulser, L, Charalampous, T, Patel, A, Berry, L, Boswell, T, Fleming, VM, Howson-Wells, HC, Joseph, A, Khakh, M, Lister, MM, Bird, PW, Fallon, K, Helmer, T, Odedra, M, Shaw, J, Tang, JW, Willford, NJ, Blakey, V, Raviprakash, V, Sheriff, N, Williams, L - A, Feltwell, T, Bedford, L, Cargill, JS, Hughes, W, Moore, J, Stonehouse, S, Atkinson, L, Lee, JCD, Shah, D, Alcolea-Medina, A, Ohemeng-Kumi, N, Ramble, J, Sehmi, J, Williams, R, Chatterton, W, Pusok, M, Everson, W, Castigador, A, Macnaughton, E, El Bouzidi, K, Lampejo, T, Sudhanva, M, Breen, C, Sluga, G, Ahmad, SSY, George, RP, Machin, NW, Binns, D, James, V, Blacow, R, Coupland, L, Smith, L, Barton, E, Padgett, D, Scott, G, Cross, A, Mirfenderesky, M, Greenaway, J, Cole, K, Clarke, P, Duckworth, N, Walsh, S, Bicknell, K, Impey, R, Wyllie, S, Hopes, R, Bishop, C, Chalker, V, Harrison, I, Gifford, L, Molnar, Z, Auckland, C, Evans, C, Johnson, K, Partridge, DG, Raza, M, Baker, P, Bonner, S, Essex, S, Murray, LJ, Lawton, AI, Burton-Fanning, S, Payne, BAI, Waugh, S, Gomes, AN, Kimuli, M, Murray, DR, Ashfield, P, Dobie, D, Ashford, F, Best, A, Crawford, L, Cumley, N, Mayhew, M, Megram, O, Mirza, J, Moles-Garcia, E, Percival, B, Driscoll, M, Ensell, L, Lowe, HL, Maftei, L, Mondani, M, Chaloner, NJ, Cogger, BJ, Easton, LJ, Huckson, H, Lewis, J, Lowdon, S, Malone, CS, Munemo, F, Mutingwende, M, Nicodemi, R, Podplomyk, O, Somassa, T, Beggs, A, Richter, A, Cormie, C, Dias, J, Forrest, S, Higginson, EE, Maes, M, Young, J, Davidson, RK, Jackson, KA, Turtle, L, Keeley, AJ, Ball, J, Byaruhanga, T, Chappell, JG, Dey, J, Hill, JD, Park, EJ, Fanaie, A, Hilson, RA, Yaze, G, Lo, S, Afifi, S, Beer, R, Maksimovic, J, McCluggage, K, Spellman, K, Bresner, C, Fuller, W, Marchbank, A, Workman, T, Shelest, E, Debebe, J, Sang, F, Zamudio, ME, Francois, S, Gutierrez, B, Vasylyeva, TI, Flaviani, F, Ragonnet-Cronin, M, Smollett, KL, Broos, A, Mair, D, Nichols, J, Nomikou, K, Tong, L, Tsatsani, I, O'Brien, S, Rushton, S, Sanderson, R, Perkins, J, Cotton, S, Gallagher, A, Allara, E, Pearson, C, Bibby, D, Dabrera, G, Ellaby, N, Gallagher, E, Hubb, J, Lackenby, A, Lee, D, Manesis, N, Mbisa, T, Platt, S, Twohig, KA, Morgan, M, Aydin, A, Baker, DJ, Foster-Nyarko, E, Prosolek, SJ, Rudder, S, Baxter, C, Carvalho, SF, Lavin, D, Mariappan, A, Radulescu, C, Singh, A, Tang, M, Morcrette, H, Bayzid, N, Cotic, M, Balcazar, CE, Gallagher, MD, Maloney, D, Stanton, TD, Williamson, KA, Manley, R, Michelsen, ML, Sambles, CM, Studholme, DJ, Warwick-Dugdale, J, Eccles, R, Gemmell, M, Gregory, R, Hughes, M, Nelson, C, Rainbow, L, Vamos, EE, Webster, HJ, Whitehead, M, Wierzbicki, C, Angyal, A, Green, LR, Whiteley, M, Betteridge, E, Bronner, IF, Farr, BW, Goodwin, S, Lensing, SV, McCarthy, SA, Quail, MA, Rajan, D, Redshaw, NM, Scott, C, Shirley, L, Thurston, SAJ, Rowe, W, Gaskin, A, Le-Viet, T, Bonfield, J, Liddle, J, and Whitwham, A
Abstract: This paper uses a robust method of spatial epidemiological analysis to assess the spatial growth rate of multiple lineages of SARS-CoV-2 in the local authority areas of England, September 2020–December 2021. Using the genomic surveillance records of the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) Consortium, the analysis identifies a substantial (7.6-fold) difference in the average rate of spatial growth of 37 sample lineages, from the slowest (Delta AY.4.3) to the fastest (Omicron BA.1). Spatial growth of the Omicron (B.1.1.529 and BA) variant was found to be 2.81× faster than the Delta (B.1.617.2 and AY) variant and 3.76× faster than the Alpha (B.1.1.7 and Q) variant. In addition to AY.4.2 (a designated variant under investigation, VUI-21OCT-01), three Delta sublineages (AY.43, AY.98 and AY.120) were found to display a statistically faster rate of spatial growth than the parent lineage and would seem to merit further investigation. We suggest that the monitoring of spatial growth rates is a potentially valuable adjunct to outbreak response procedures for emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants in a defined population.

40. Potential for international spread of Oropouche virus via commercial air travel.

Author: Portillo MT, Marwah A, Kraemer MUG, Thomas-Bachli A, Khan K, and Bogoch II
Published: 2024
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41. High-resolution epidemiological landscape from ~290,000 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Denmark.

Author: Khurana MP, Curran-Sebastian J, Scheidwasser N, Morgenstern C, Rasmussen M, Fonager J, Stegger M, Tang ME, Juul JL, Escobar-Herrera LA, Møller FT, Albertsen M, Kraemer MUG, du Plessis L, Jokelainen P, Lehmann S, Krause TG, Ullum H, Duchêne DA, Mortensen LH, and Bhatt S
Subjects: Humans, Denmark epidemiology, Adult, Middle Aged, Aged, Adolescent, Young Adult, Evolution, Molecular, Male, Female, Child, Preschool, Child, Phylogeny, Infant, COVID-19 epidemiology, COVID-19 virology, COVID-19 transmission, SARS-CoV-2 genetics, SARS-CoV-2 classification, Genome, Viral genetics
Abstract: Vast amounts of pathogen genomic, demographic and spatial data are transforming our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 emergence and spread. We examined the drivers of molecular evolution and spread of 291,791 SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Denmark in 2021. With a sequencing rate consistently exceeding 60%, and up to 80% of PCR-positive samples between March and November, the viral genome set is broadly whole-epidemic representative. We identify a consistent rise in viral diversity over time, with notable spikes upon the importation of novel variants (e.g., Delta and Omicron). By linking genomic data with rich individual-level demographic data from national registers, we find that individuals aged < 15 and > 75 years had a lower contribution to molecular change (i.e., branch lengths) compared to other age groups, but similar molecular evolutionary rates, suggesting a lower likelihood of introducing novel variants. Similarly, we find greater molecular change among vaccinated individuals, suggestive of immune evasion. We also observe evidence of transmission in rural areas to follow predictable diffusion processes. Conversely, urban areas are expectedly more complex due to their high mobility, emphasising the role of population structure in driving virus spread. Our analyses highlight the added value of integrating genomic data with detailed demographic and spatial information, particularly in the absence of structured infection surveys., (© 2024. The Author(s).)
Published: 2024
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42. Spatial scales of COVID-19 transmission in Mexico.

Author: Klein B, Hartle H, Shrestha M, Zenteno AC, Barros Sierra Cordera D, Nicolás-Carlock JR, Bento AI, Althouse BM, Gutierrez B, Escalera-Zamudio M, Reyes-Sandoval A, Pybus OG, Vespignani A, Díaz-Quiñonez JA, Scarpino SV, and Kraemer MUG
Abstract: During outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases, internationally connected cities often experience large and early outbreaks, while rural regions follow after some delay. This hierarchical structure of disease spread is influenced primarily by the multiscale structure of human mobility. However, during the COVID-19 epidemic, public health responses typically did not take into consideration the explicit spatial structure of human mobility when designing nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). NPIs were applied primarily at national or regional scales. Here, we use weekly anonymized and aggregated human mobility data and spatially highly resolved data on COVID-19 cases at the municipality level in Mexico to investigate how behavioral changes in response to the pandemic have altered the spatial scales of transmission and interventions during its first wave (March-June 2020). We find that the epidemic dynamics in Mexico were initially driven by exports of COVID-19 cases from Mexico State and Mexico City, where early outbreaks occurred. The mobility network shifted after the implementation of interventions in late March 2020, and the mobility network communities became more disjointed while epidemics in these communities became increasingly synchronized. Our results provide dynamic insights into how to use network science and epidemiological modeling to inform the spatial scale at which interventions are most impactful in mitigating the spread of COVID-19 and infectious diseases in general., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of National Academy of Sciences.)
Published: 2024
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43. Genomic characterization of Dengue virus circulation in Ethiopia.

Author: Abera A, Tegally H, Tasew G, Wilkinson E, Ali A, Regasa F, Bitew M, Chabuka L, Mwanyika G, Tshiabuila D, Giandhari J, Pillay S, Poogavanan J, Moir M, Kraemer MUG, Khan K, Huber C, Tollera G, de Wit TFR, Baxter C, Lessells R, Wolday D, Beyene D, and de Oliveira T
Abstract: In Ethiopia, dengue virus (DENV) infections have been reported in several regions, however, little is known about the circulating genetic diversity. Here, we conducted clinical surveillance for DENV during the 2023 nationwide outbreak and sequenced DENV whole genomes for the first time in Ethiopia. We enrolled patients at three sentinel hospital sites. Using RT-PCR, we screened serum samples for three arboviruses followed by serotyping and sequencing for DENV-positive samples (10.4% of samples). We detected two DENV serotypes (DENV1 and DENV3). Phylogenetic analysis identified one transmission cluster of DENV1 (genotype III major lineage A), and two clusters of DENV3 (genotype III major lineage B). The first showed close evolutionary relationship to the 2023 Italian outbreak and the second cluster to Indian isolates. Co-circulation of DENV1 and DENV3 in some regions of Ethiopia highlights the potential for severe dengue. Intensified surveillance and coordinated public health response are needed to address the threat of severe dengue outbreaks.
Published: 2024
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44. Human movement and environmental barriers shape the emergence of dengue.

Author: Harish V, Colón-González FJ, Moreira FRR, Gibb R, Kraemer MUG, Davis M, Reiner RC Jr, Pigott DM, Perkins TA, Weiss DJ, Bogoch II, Vazquez-Prokopec G, Saide PM, Barbosa GL, Sabino EC, Khan K, Faria NR, Hay SI, Correa-Morales F, Chiaravalloti-Neto F, and Brady OJ
Subjects: Humans, Brazil epidemiology, Mexico epidemiology, Animals, Dengue Virus physiology, Communicable Diseases, Emerging epidemiology, Communicable Diseases, Emerging virology, Communicable Diseases, Emerging transmission, Environment, Human Migration, Aedes virology, Dengue epidemiology, Dengue transmission, Dengue virology
Abstract: Understanding how emerging infectious diseases spread within and between countries is essential to contain future pandemics. Spread to new areas requires connectivity between one or more sources and a suitable local environment, but how these two factors interact at different stages of disease emergence remains largely unknown. Further, no analytical framework exists to examine their roles. Here we develop a dynamic modelling approach for infectious diseases that explicitly models both connectivity via human movement and environmental suitability interactions. We apply it to better understand recently observed (1995-2019) patterns as well as predict past unobserved (1983-2000) and future (2020-2039) spread of dengue in Mexico and Brazil. We find that these models can accurately reconstruct long-term spread pathways, determine historical origins, and identify specific routes of invasion. We find early dengue invasion is more heavily influenced by environmental factors, resulting in patchy non-contiguous spread, while short and long-distance connectivity becomes more important in later stages. Our results have immediate practical applications for forecasting and containing the spread of dengue and emergence of new serotypes. Given current and future trends in human mobility, climate, and zoonotic spillover, understanding the interplay between connectivity and environmental suitability will be increasingly necessary to contain emerging and re-emerging pathogens., (© 2024. The Author(s).)
Published: 2024
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45. Drivers and impact of the early silent invasion of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha.

Author: Faucher B, Sabbatini CE, Czuppon P, Kraemer MUG, Lemey P, Colizza V, Blanquart F, Boëlle PY, and Poletto C
Subjects: Humans, Bayes Theorem, SARS-CoV-2 genetics, COVID-19 epidemiology, Epidemics
Abstract: SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) circulated cryptically before being identified as a threat, delaying interventions. Here we studied the drivers of such silent spread and its epidemic impact to inform future response planning. We focused on Alpha spread out of the UK. We integrated spatio-temporal records of international mobility, local epidemic growth and genomic surveillance into a Bayesian framework to reconstruct the first three months after Alpha emergence. We found that silent circulation lasted from days to months and decreased with the logarithm of sequencing coverage. Social restrictions in some countries likely delayed the establishment of local transmission, mitigating the negative consequences of late detection. Revisiting the initial spread of Alpha supports local mitigation at the destination in case of emerging events., (© 2024. The Author(s).)
Published: 2024
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46. Characterizing collective physical distancing in the U.S. during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Author: Klein B, LaRock T, McCabe S, Torres L, Friedland L, Kos M, Privitera F, Lake B, Kraemer MUG, Brownstein JS, Gonzalez R, Lazer D, Eliassi-Rad T, Scarpino SV, Vespignani A, and Chinazzi M
Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic offers an unprecedented natural experiment providing insights into the emergence of collective behavioral changes of both exogenous (government mandated) and endogenous (spontaneous reaction to infection risks) origin. Here, we characterize collective physical distancing-mobility reductions, minimization of contacts, shortening of contact duration-in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the pre-vaccine era by analyzing de-identified, privacy-preserving location data for a panel of over 5.5 million anonymized, opted-in U.S. devices. We define five indicators of users' mobility and proximity to investigate how the emerging collective behavior deviates from typical pre-pandemic patterns during the first nine months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze both the dramatic changes due to the government mandated mitigation policies and the more spontaneous societal adaptation into a new (physically distanced) normal in the fall 2020. Using the indicators here defined we show that: a) during the COVID-19 pandemic, collective physical distancing displayed different phases and was heterogeneous across geographies, b) metropolitan areas displayed stronger reductions in mobility and contacts than rural areas; c) stronger reductions in commuting patterns are observed in geographical areas with a higher share of teleworkable jobs; d) commuting volumes during and after the lockdown period negatively correlate with unemployment rates; and e) increases in contact indicators correlate with future values of new deaths at a lag consistent with epidemiological parameters and surveillance reporting delays. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that the framework and indicators here presented can be used to analyze large-scale social distancing phenomena, paving the way for their use in future pandemics to analyze and monitor the effects of pandemic mitigation plans at the national and international levels., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Klein et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)
Published: 2024
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47. Correction: Recommended reporting items for epidemic forecasting and prediction research: The EPIFORGE 2020 guidelines.

Author: Pollett S, Johansson MA, Reich NG, Brett-Major D, Del Valle SY, Venkatramanan S, Lowe R, Porco T, Berry IM, Deshpande A, Kraemer MUG, Blazes DL, Pan-Ngum W, Vespigiani A, Mate SE, Silal SP, Kandula S, Sippy R, Quandelacy TM, Morgan JJ, Ball J, Morton LC, Althouse BM, Pavlin J, van Panhuis W, Riley S, Biggerstaff M, Viboud C, Brady O, and Rivers C
Abstract: [This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003793.]., (Copyright: This is an open access article, free of all copyright, and may be freely reproduced, distributed, transmitted, modified, built upon, or otherwise used by anyone for any lawful purpose. The work is made available under the Creative Commons CC0 public domain dedication.)
Published: 2023
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48. A multi-country analysis of COVID-19 hospitalizations by vaccination status.

Author: Gonçalves BP, Jassat W, Baruch J, Hashmi M, Rojek A, Dasgupta A, Martin-Loeches I, Reyes LF, Piubelli C, Citarella BW, Kartsonaki C, Lefèvre B, López Revilla JW, Lunn M, Harrison EM, Kraemer MUG, Shrapnel S, Horby P, Bisoffi Z, Olliaro PL, and Merson L
Subjects: Humans, SARS-CoV-2, Hospitalization, Hospitals, Vaccination, COVID-19 epidemiology, COVID-19 prevention & control
Abstract: Background: Individuals vaccinated against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), when infected, can still develop disease that requires hospitalization. It remains unclear whether these patients differ from hospitalized unvaccinated patients with regard to presentation, coexisting comorbidities, and outcomes., Methods: Here, we use data from an international consortium to study this question and assess whether differences between these groups are context specific. Data from 83,163 hospitalized COVID-19 patients (34,843 vaccinated, 48,320 unvaccinated) from 38 countries were analyzed., Findings: While typical symptoms were more often reported in unvaccinated patients, comorbidities, including some associated with worse prognosis in previous studies, were more common in vaccinated patients. Considerable between-country variation in both in-hospital fatality risk and vaccinated-versus-unvaccinated difference in this outcome was observed., Conclusions: These findings will inform allocation of healthcare resources in future surges as well as design of longer-term international studies to characterize changes in clinical profile of hospitalized COVID-19 patients related to vaccination history., Funding: This work was made possible by the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office and Wellcome (215091/Z/18/Z, 222410/Z/21/Z, 225288/Z/22/Z, and 220757/Z/20/Z); the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (OPP1209135); and the philanthropic support of the donors to the University of Oxford's COVID-19 Research Response Fund (0009109). Additional funders are listed in the "acknowledgments" section., Competing Interests: Declaration of interests I.M.-L. declares lectures for Gilead, Thermo Fisher, and MSD; advisory board participation for Fresenius Kabi, Advanz Pharma, Gilead, Accelerate, and Merck; and consulting fees for Gilead outside of the submitted work. S.S. participated as an investigator for an observational study analyzing ICU patients with COVID-19 (for the Critical Care Consortium, including ECMOCARD) funded by The Prince Charles Hospital Foundation during the conduct of this study. B.L. declares travel/accommodation/meeting expenses from Mylan and Gilead, all outside the submitted work., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
Published: 2023
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49. A systematic review of the data, methods and environmental covariates used to map Aedes-borne arbovirus transmission risk.

Author: Lim AY, Jafari Y, Caldwell JM, Clapham HE, Gaythorpe KAM, Hussain-Alkhateeb L, Johansson MA, Kraemer MUG, Maude RJ, McCormack CP, Messina JP, Mordecai EA, Rabe IB, Reiner RC Jr, Ryan SJ, Salje H, Semenza JC, Rojas DP, and Brady OJ
Subjects: Animals, Humans, Mosquito Vectors, Arboviruses, Aedes, Arbovirus Infections epidemiology, Yellow Fever epidemiology, Zika Virus Infection, Chikungunya Fever, Zika Virus, Dengue epidemiology
Abstract: Background: Aedes (Stegomyia)-borne diseases are an expanding global threat, but gaps in surveillance make comprehensive and comparable risk assessments challenging. Geostatistical models combine data from multiple locations and use links with environmental and socioeconomic factors to make predictive risk maps. Here we systematically review past approaches to map risk for different Aedes-borne arboviruses from local to global scales, identifying differences and similarities in the data types, covariates, and modelling approaches used., Methods: We searched on-line databases for predictive risk mapping studies for dengue, Zika, chikungunya, and yellow fever with no geographical or date restrictions. We included studies that needed to parameterise or fit their model to real-world epidemiological data and make predictions to new spatial locations of some measure of population-level risk of viral transmission (e.g. incidence, occurrence, suitability, etc.)., Results: We found a growing number of arbovirus risk mapping studies across all endemic regions and arboviral diseases, with a total of 176 papers published 2002-2022 with the largest increases shortly following major epidemics. Three dominant use cases emerged: (i) global maps to identify limits of transmission, estimate burden and assess impacts of future global change, (ii) regional models used to predict the spread of major epidemics between countries and (iii) national and sub-national models that use local datasets to better understand transmission dynamics to improve outbreak detection and response. Temperature and rainfall were the most popular choice of covariates (included in 50% and 40% of studies respectively) but variables such as human mobility are increasingly being included. Surprisingly, few studies (22%, 31/144) robustly tested combinations of covariates from different domains (e.g. climatic, sociodemographic, ecological, etc.) and only 49% of studies assessed predictive performance via out-of-sample validation procedures., Conclusions: Here we show that approaches to map risk for different arboviruses have diversified in response to changing use cases, epidemiology and data availability. We identify key differences in mapping approaches between different arboviral diseases, discuss future research needs and outline specific recommendations for future arbovirus mapping., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)
Published: 2023
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50. Reemergence of Cosmopolitan Genotype Dengue Virus Serotype 2, Southern Vietnam.

Author: Tran VT, Inward RPD, Gutierrez B, Nguyen NM, Nguyen PT, Rajendiran I, Cao TT, Duong KTH, Kraemer MUG, and Yacoub S
Subjects: Phylogeny, Serogroup, Vietnam epidemiology, Genotype, Dengue Virus genetics
Abstract: We performed phylogenetic analysis on dengue virus serotype 2 Cosmopolitan genotype in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. We document virus emergence, probable routes of introduction, and timeline of events. Our findings highlight the need for continuous, systematic genomic surveillance to manage outbreaks and forecast future epidemics.
Published: 2023
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