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1. Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

Author

Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R.A.P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G.T., Bilibashi, A., Boháč, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G.B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T.R., Kohnová, S., Koskela, J.J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, Ralf, Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J.L., Sauquet, E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., Živković, N., Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R.A.P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G.T., Bilibashi, A., Boháč, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G.B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T.R., Kohnová, S., Koskela, J.J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, Ralf, Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J.L., Sauquet, E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., and Živković, N.

Abstract

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results—arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far—suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.

Published
2019

2. Changing climate shifts timing of European floods

Author

Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Parajka, J., Perdigão, R.A.P., Merz, B., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G.T., Bilibashi, A., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G.B., Claps, P., Fiala, K., Frolova, N., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T.R., Kohnová, S., Koskela, J.J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, Ralf, Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Rogger, M., Salinas, J.L., Sauquet, E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., Živković, N., Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Parajka, J., Perdigão, R.A.P., Merz, B., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G.T., Bilibashi, A., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G.B., Claps, P., Fiala, K., Frolova, N., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T.R., Kohnová, S., Koskela, J.J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, Ralf, Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Rogger, M., Salinas, J.L., Sauquet, E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., and Živković, N.

Abstract

A warming climate is expected to have an impact on the magnitude and timing of river floods; however, no consistent large-scale climate change signal in observed flood magnitudes has been identified so far. We analyzed the timing of river floods in Europe over the past five decades, using a pan-European database from 4262 observational hydrometric stations, and found clear patterns of change in flood timing. Warmer temperatures have led to earlier spring snowmelt floods throughout northeastern Europe; delayed winter storms associated with polar warming have led to later winter floods around the North Sea and some sectors of the Mediterranean coast; and earlier soil moisture maxima have led to earlier winter floods in western Europe. Our results highlight the existence of a clear climate signal in flood observations at the continental scale.

Published
2017

3. Une base de données hydrologiques européenne pour faciliter les recherches sur les crues au delà des frontières administratives

Author

Hall, J., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G.T., Bilibashi, A., Bohac, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Burlando, P., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G.B., Claps, P., Fiala, K., Gaal, L., Gorbachova, L., Gul, A., Hannaford, J., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T., Kohnova, S., Koskela, J.J., Macdonald, N., Mavrova Guirguinova, M., Ledvinka, O., Mediero, L., Merz, B., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Osuch, M., Parajka, J., Perdigao, R.A.P., Radevski, I., Renard, B., Rogger, M., Salinas, J.L., Sauquet, E., Sraj, M., Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., Bloschl, G., Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology (TU Wien), Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Department of Civil, Informatics, Architectural, Environmental Engineering and Applied Mathematics, University of Messina, Control Systems Engineer, Renewable Energy Systems & Technology, CSE, Czech Hydrometeorological Institute (CHMI), Faculty of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Geodesy, Split University, Department of Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry (TeSAF), Universita degli Studi di Padova, Institute of Environmental Engineering, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering, Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna [Bologna] (UNIBO), Department of Agriculture, Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II, Department Environment, Land and Infrastructure Engineering, Politecnico di Torino = Polytechnic of Turin (Polito), Lower Tisza District Water Directorate, Department Hydrological Research, Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, Department of Civil Engineering, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi = Dokuz Eylül University [Izmir] (DEÜ), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, University of Bath [Bath], Department of Land and Water Resources Management, Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava, Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Department of Geography and Planning, School of Environmental Sciences, University of Liverpool, University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy (UACEG), Department of Civil Engineering: Hydraulic, Energy and Environment, Technical University of Madrid, German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam (GFZ), Department of Land, Environment, Agriculture and Forestry, Institute of Environmental Engineering (Zürich], Department of Hydrology and Hydrodynamics, Institute of Geophysics [Warsaw], Polska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN)-Polska Akademia Nauk = Polish Academy of Sciences (PAN), Institute of Geography, Cyril and Methodius University, Hydrologie-Hydraulique (UR HHLY), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), University of Ljubljana, Department of Engineering, University Roma, Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), Institute of GeoSciences, Energy, Water and Environment (IGEWE), Polytechnic University of Tirana, Technical University of Vienna [Vienna] (TU WIEN), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Università di Bologna [Bologna] (UNIBO), Politecnico di Torino [Torino] (Polito), Dokuz Eylul University, Civil Engineering and Geodesy, University of Architecture, Polska Akademia Nauk (PAN)-Polska Akademia Nauk (PAN), and Institute of GeoSciences, Energy, Water and Environment

Subjects
INONDATION, EUROPE, HYDROLOGIE, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, CRUE, BASE DE DONNEES
Abstract

Proceedings of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences, Changes in Flood Risk and Perception in Catchments and Cities, Prague, CZE, 22-/06/2015 - 02/07/2015; International audience; The current work addresses one of the key building blocks towards an improved understanding of flood processes and associated changes in flood characteristics and regimes in Europe: the development of a comprehensive, extensive European flood database. The presented work results from ongoing cross-border research collaborations initiated with data collection and joint interpretation in mind. A detailed account of the current state, characteristics and spatial and temporal coverage of the European Flood Database, is presented. At this stage, the hydrological data collection is still growing and consists at this time of annual maximum and daily mean discharge series, from over 7000 hydrometric stations of various data series lengths. Moreover, the database currently comprises data from over 50 different data sources. The time series have been obtained from different national and regional data sources in a collaborative effort of a joint European flood research agreement based on the exchange of data, models and expertise, and from existing international data collections and open source websites. These ongoing efforts are contributing to advancing the understanding of regional flood processes beyond individual country boundaries and to a more coherent flood research in Europe.

Published
2015
Full Text
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4. A European Flood Database: facilitating comprehensive flood research beyond administrative boundaries

Author

Hall, J., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G.T., Bilibasi, A., Bohac, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Burlando, P., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G.B., Claps, P., Fiala, K., Gaal, L., Gorbachova, L., Gul, A., Hannaford, J., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T., Kohnova, S., Koskela, J.J., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Ledvinka, O., Mediero, L., Merz, B., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Osuch, M., Parajka, J., Perdigao, R.A.P., Radevski, I., Renard, B., Rogger, M., Salinas, J.L., Sauquet, E., Sraj, M., Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., Bloschl, G., Hall, J., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G.T., Bilibasi, A., Bohac, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Burlando, P., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G.B., Claps, P., Fiala, K., Gaal, L., Gorbachova, L., Gul, A., Hannaford, J., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T., Kohnova, S., Koskela, J.J., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Ledvinka, O., Mediero, L., Merz, B., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Osuch, M., Parajka, J., Perdigao, R.A.P., Radevski, I., Renard, B., Rogger, M., Salinas, J.L., Sauquet, E., Sraj, M., Szolgay, J., Viglione, A., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., and Bloschl, G.

Abstract

The current work addresses one of the key building blocks towards an improved understanding of flood processes and associated changes in flood characteristics and regimes in Europe: the development of a comprehensive, extensive European flood database. The presented work results from ongoing cross-border research collaborations initiated with data collection and joint interpretation in mind. A detailed account of the current state, characteristics and spatial and temporal coverage of the European Flood Database, is presented. At this stage, the hydrological data collection is still growing and consists at this time of annual maximum and daily mean discharge series, from over 7000 hydrometric stations of various data series lengths. Moreover, the database currently comprises data from over 50 different data sources. The time series have been obtained from different national and regional data sources in a collaborative effort of a joint European flood research agreement based on the exchange of data, models and expertise, and from existing international data collections and open source websites. These ongoing efforts are contributing to advancing the understanding of regional flood processes beyond individual country boundaries and to a more coherent flood research in Europe.

Published
2015

5. Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods

Author

Ralf Merz, Maria Kireeva, Ardian Bilibashi, Marzena Osuch, Günter Blöschl, Jose Luis Salinas, Andrea Kiss, Thomas Kjeldsen, Attilio Castellarin, David Lun, Julia Hall, Conor Murphy, Neil Macdonald, Jamie Hannaford, Mojca Šraj, Alberto Montanari, Ján Szolgay, Klodian Zaimi, Ivan Radevski, Eric Sauquet, Valeryia Ovcharuk, Juraj Parajka, Daniele Ganora, Peter Molnar, Alberto Viglione, Donna Wilson, Silvia Kohnová, Liudmyla Gorbachova, Elena Volpi, Nenad Živković, Marco Borga, Pierluigi Claps, Berit Arheimer, Jarkko J. Koskela, Shaun Harrigan, Ondrej Ledvinka, Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova, Giovanni Battista Chirico, Ognjen Bonacci, Giuseppe Tito Aronica, Rui A. P. Perdigão, Luis Mediero, Ivan Čanjevac, Bruno Merz, Ali Gül, Miloň Boháč, Natalia Frolova, Bloschl G., Hall J., Viglione A., Perdigao R.A.P., Parajka J., Merz B., Lun D., Arheimer B., Aronica G.T., Bilibashi A., Bohac M., Bonacci O., Borga M., Canjevac I., Castellarin A., Chirico G.B., Claps P., Frolova N., Ganora D., Gorbachova L., Gul A., Hannaford J., Harrigan S., Kireeva M., Kiss A., Kjeldsen T.R., Kohnova S., Koskela J.J., Ledvinka O., Macdonald N., Mavrova-Guirguinova M., Mediero L., Merz R., Molnar P., Montanari A., Murphy C., Osuch M., Ovcharuk V., Radevski I., Salinas J.L., Sauquet E., Sraj M., Szolgay J., Volpi E., Wilson D., Zaimi K., Zivkovic N., Bloschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigao, R. A. P., Parajka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aronica, G. T., Bilibashi, A., Bohac, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Canjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G. B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gul, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, S., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T. R., Kohnova, S., Koskela, J. J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J. L., Sauquet, E., Sraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K., Zivkovic, N., INSTITUTE OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITAT WIEN AUT, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHY UNIVERSITY OF BELGRADE SRB, DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT LAND AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING POLITECNICO DI TORINO TURIN ITA, HELMHOLTZ CENTRE POTSDAM GFZ GERMAN RESEARCH CENTRE FOR GEOSCIENCES POTSDAM DEU, DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF MESSINA ITA, CZECH HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE PRAGUE CZE, FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING ARCHITECTURE AND GEODESY SPLIT UNIVERSITY HRV, DEPARTMENT OF LAND ENVIRONMENT AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY UNIVERSITY OF PADOVA ITA 11, University of Zagreb, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL CHEMICAL ENVIRONMENTAL AND MATERIALS ENGINEERING UNIVERSITA DI BOLOGNA ITA, DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF NAPLES FEDERICO II ITA, DEPARTMENT OF LAND HYDROLOGY LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY MOSCOW RUS, DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGICAL RESEARCH UKRAINIAN HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE KIEV UKR, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY IZMIR TUR, CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY WALLINGFORD GBR, FORECAST DEPARTMENT EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS READING GBR, DEPARTMENT OF ARCHITECTURE AND CIVIL ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF BATH GBR, DEPARTMENT OF LAND AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING SLOVAK UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY IN BRATISLAVA SVK, CSE CONTROL SYSTEMS ENGINEER RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGY TIRANA ALB, FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE HELSINKI FIN, DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND PLANNING UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL GBR, INSTITUTE OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL GBR, UNIVERSITY OF ARCHITECTURE CIVIL ENGINEERING AND GEODESY SOFIA BGR, DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING HYDRAULIC ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT UNIVERSIDAD POLITECNICA DE MADRID ESP, DEPARTMENT FOR CATCHMENT HYDROLOGY HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH HALLE DEU, INSTITUTE OF ENVIRONMENTAL ENGINEERING ETH ZURICH CHE, IRISH CLIMATE ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH UNITS DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY MAYNOOTH UNIVERSITY IRL, DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGY AND HYDRODYNAMICS INSTITUTE OF GEOPHYSICS POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES WARSAW POL, HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE ODESSA STATE ENVIRONMENTAL UNIVERSITY ODESSA UKR., RiverLy (UR Riverly), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), FACULTY OF CIVIL AND GEODETIC ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF LJUBLJANA SVN, Department of Engineering [Roma], Roma Tre University, NORWEGIAN WATER RESOURCES AND ENERGY DIRECTORATE OSLO NOR, INSTITUTE OF GEOSCIENCES ENERGY WATER AND ENVIRONMENT POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY OF TIRANA ALB, Blöschl, Günter, Hall, Julia, Viglione, Alberto, Perdigão, Rui A P, Parajka, Juraj, Merz, Bruno, Lun, David, Arheimer, Berit, Aronica, Giuseppe T, Bilibashi, Ardian, Boháč, Miloň, Bonacci, Ognjen, Borga, Marco, Čanjevac, Ivan, Castellarin, Attilio, Chirico, Giovanni B, Claps, Pierluigi, Frolova, Natalia, Ganora, Daniele, Gorbachova, Liudmyla, Gül, Ali, Hannaford, Jamie, Harrigan, Shaun, Kireeva, Maria, Kiss, Andrea, Kjeldsen, Thomas R, Kohnová, Silvia, Koskela, Jarkko J, Ledvinka, Ondrej, Macdonald, Neil, Mavrova-Guirguinova, Maria, Mediero, Lui, Merz, Ralf, Molnar, Peter, Montanari, Alberto, Murphy, Conor, Osuch, Marzena, Ovcharuk, Valeryia, Radevski, Ivan, Salinas, José L, Sauquet, Eric, Šraj, Mojca, Szolgay, Jan, Volpi, Elena, Wilson, Donna, Zaimi, Klodian, and Živković, Nenad

Subjects
History, Time Factors, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Rain, Geographic Mapping, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, SDG 13 - Climate Action, 020701 environmental engineering, Multidisciplinary, Flooding (psychology), food and beverages, 21st Century, 6. Clean water, Europe, 20th Century, VARIABILITY, Climate Change, Floods, History, 20th Century, History, 21st Century, Seasons, Rivers, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, population characteristics, geographic locations, 0207 environmental engineering, Climate change, River floods, FREQUENCY, TERM, Hydrology (agriculture), parasitic diseases, medicine, Precipitation, General, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Flood myth, fungi, Seasonality, medicine.disease, Climate change, river flood discharge, Europe, risk management, flooding, climate change, SEASONALITY, 13. Climate action, Snowmelt, Environmental science, Climate model, Physical geography
Abstract

Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere1. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe2. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe3, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results—arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far—suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century4,5, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management. Analysis of a comprehensive European flood dataset reveals regional changes in river flood discharges in the past five decades that are consistent with models suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening.

Published
2019
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