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A new localized linear regression model, called the SANSA model, is presented. The model provides a forecast of the F‐region critical frequency (foF2) over Grahamstown, South Africa (33.31°S, 26.52°E). The input parameters of this model are the maximum daily solar elevation angle, the F10.7 cm radio flux index and the planetary K index. The output parameter is the forecasted foF2. The historical data‐set consists of ionosonde foF2 observations made in Grahamstown for the period 2010–2019. The historical and predicted data sets used to develop the model are obtained from databases maintained by the South African National Space Agency, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The model improves on the results of the Ionospheric Communications Enhanced Profile Analysis and Circuit Prediction Program in terms of the root mean square error skill score metric. The work presented shows that a linear regression model based on the solar elevation angle as well as the F10.7 and planetary K indices can closely approximate observed foF2 magnitudes during quiet and storm times.

The first true common volume observations of the PMSE source region with 4 radars are presented in this paper. Radar frequencies of 8, 56, 224, and 930 MHz are used in this study. Three days of experimental observations at EISCAT are presented. Numerical simulations of mesospheric dusty/ice plasma associated with the observed radar frequencies are presented. The effect of neutral air turbulence on the generation and strength of plasma density perturbations associated with PMSE using four radar frequencies and in the presence of various dust parameters is investigated. Using the model it is shown that the well-known neutral air turbulence in the presence of heavy dust particles and neutral air turbulence combined with dust density (dusty turbulence) can largely explain the observed radar cross-section at four radar frequencies. The effect of neutral air turbulence amplitude along with dust charging and diffusion in the presence of various dust parameters is investigated using the computational model. Specifically, the response of diffusion to charging time scales, plasma density fluctuation amplitude and background dusty plasma parameters are discussed. Several key parameters in the dusty plasma responsible for the PMSE observations are determined. Qualitative comparison of radar echo strength at 4 frequencies with numerical results is provided. Unlike the previous studies that required large dust particles of 20 nm for PMSE formation, the present work demonstrates the possibility of small dust particles to explain the experimental observations.

We present the first 3D triangulation of Transient Luminous Events (TLEs) over Africa. The 6 TLEs were simultaneously observed in the middle atmosphere from Sutherland and Carnarvon in South Africa, separated by 192 km, during the 2019 sprites campaign. These two distinctive locations have low radio interference and are free from light pollution. The lightning times, locations, peak current, and polarities, which initiated the observed TLEs, were obtained from the South African Lightning Detection Network and Earth Networks Total Lightning Networks. We investigate the TLEs' altitude and horizontal displacement from their parent lightning strokes. TLEs appear approximately 12.5 to 49.3 km away from their parent lightning strokes. We found that TLE altitudes range from 29 to 92.6 km. The lightning electric field and peak current may be related to the displacement of TLEs and the TLEs' horizontal spread.

Ground-based observations of 11.072 GHz atmospheric ozone (O3) emission have been made using the Ny-Ålesund Ozone in the Mesosphere Instrument (NAOMI) at the UK Arctic Research Station (latitude 78∘55’0’’ N, longitude 11∘55’59’’ E), Spitsbergen. Seasonally averaged O3 vertical profiles in the Arctic polar mesosphere–lower thermosphere region for night-time and twilight conditions in the period 15 August 2017 to 15 March 2020 have been retrieved over the altitude range 62–98 km. NAOMI measurements are compared with corresponding, overlapping observations by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) satellite instrument. The NAOMI and SABER version 2.0 data are binned according to the SABER instrument 60 d yaw cycles into nominal 3-month “winter” (15 December–15 March), “autumn” (15 August–15 November), and “summer” (15 April–15 July) periods. The NAOMI observations show the same year-to-year and seasonal variabilities as the SABER 9.6 µm O3 data. The winter night-time (solar zenith angle, SZA ≥ 110∘) and twilight (75∘ ≤ SZA ≤ 110∘) NAOMI and SABER 9.6 µm O3 volume mixing ratio (VMR) profiles agree to within the measurement uncertainties. However, for autumn twilight conditions the SABER 9.6 µm O3 secondary maximum VMR values are higher than NAOMI over altitudes 88–97 km by 47 % and 59 %, respectively in 2017 and 2018. Comparing the two SABER channels which measure O3 at different wavelengths and use different processing schemes, the 9.6 µm O3 autumn twilight VMR data for the three years 2017–2019 are higher than the corresponding 1.27 µm measurements with the largest difference (58 %) in the 65–95 km altitude range similar to the NAOMI observation. The SABER 9.6 µm O3 summer daytime (SZA < 75∘) mesospheric O3 VMR is also consistently higher than the 1.27 µm measurement, confirming previously reported differences between the SABER 9.6 µm channel and measurements of mesospheric O3 by other satellite instruments..

This study presents an improved method to estimate differential energy flux, auroral power and field-aligned current of electron precipitation from incoherent scatter radar data. The method is based on a newly developed data analysis technique that uses Bayesian filtering to fit altitude profiles of electron density, electron temperature, and ion temperature to observed incoherent scatter spectra with high time and range resolutions. The electron energy spectra are inverted from the electron density profiles. Previous high-time resolution fits have relied on the raw electron density, which is calculated from the backscattered power assuming that the ion and electron temperatures are equal. The improved technique is applied to one auroral event measured by the EISCAT UHF radar and it is demonstrated that the effect of electron heating on electron energy spectra, auroral power, and upward field-aligned current can be significant at times. Using the fitted electron densities instead of the raw ones may lead to wider electron energy spectra and auroral power up to 75% larger. The largest differences take place for precipitation that produces enhanced electron heating in the upper E region, and in this study correspond to fluxes of electrons with peak energies from 3 to 5 keV. Finally, the auroral power estimates are verified by comparison to the 427.8 nm auroral emission intensity, which shows good correlation. The improved method makes it possible to calculate unbiased estimates of electron energy spectra with high time resolution and thereby to study rapidly varying aurora.

We present a new simplified method to estimate the characteristic electron energy and electric field within a mesospheric transient luminous event using ground-based calibrated and filtered optical data. We assume non-relativistic motion, a Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution, a model of the electron-neutral collision frequency, elastic electron collisions, that the collisional excitation cross-section can be assigned to a single value, and that each electron-neutral collision produces one photon on average. Example observations of carrot sprites over South Africa give estimated electron energy of 4.6–4.9 ± 0.03 eV, which compares favourably with previous similar results using more sophisticated methods. Ideally, two wavelengths should be observed simultaneously but we show a good estimate is possible with only the bright N2(1 PG) red emission.

Tower-mounted camera-based wildfire detection systems provide an effective means of early forest fire detection. Historically, tower sites have been identified by foresters and locals with intimate knowledge of the terrain and without the aid of computational optimisation tools. When moving into vast new territories and without the aid of local knowledge, this process becomes cumbersome and daunting. In such instances, the optimisation of final site layouts may be streamlined if a suitable strategy is employed to limit the candidate sites to landforms which offer superior system visibility. A framework for the exploitation of landforms for these purposes is proposed. The landform classifications at 165 existing tower sites from wildfire detection systems in South Africa, Canada and the USA are analysed using the geomorphon technique, and it is noted that towers are located at or near certain landform types. A metaheuristic and integer linear programming approach is then employed to search for optimal tower sites in a large area currently monitored by the ForestWatch wildfire detection system, and these sites are then classified according to landforms. The results support the observations made for the existing towers in terms of noteworthy landforms, and the optimisation process is repeated by limiting the candidate sites to selected landforms. This leads to solutions with improved system coverage, achieved within reduced computation times. The presented framework may be replicated for use in similar applications, such as site-selection for military equipment, cellular transmitters, and weather radar. © 2021, The Author(s).

Effective early detection of forest fires can be achieved by specialised systems of tower-mounted cameras. Foresters and locals with intimate knowledge of the terrain traditionally plan the tower site locations – without the aid of computational optimisation tools. However, such knowledge and expertise may not be available to system planners when entering vast new territories. The process of selecting multiple tower sites from a large number of potential site locations with the aim of maximising system visibility of smoke above a prescribed region is a complex combinatorial optimisation problem. We present two recent applications of novel site-selection frameworks for tower-mounted camera-based wildfire detection systems (CWDS), which have been under development with guidance from experts from the South African developed ForestWatch wildfire detection system. A novel single-site search framework determined alternatives for 13 proposed sites in South Africa's Mpumalanga province, of which 6 alternatives were chosen over the initially proposed sites. The system site selection framework was showcased in determining a four-camera CWDS layout in South Africa's Southern Cape – significantly improving on the detection capability of the layout initially proposed by technical experts.

This paper focuses on unique aspects of the ionospheric response at conjugate locations over Europe and South Africa during the 7–8 September 2017 geomagnetic storm including the role of the bottomside and topside ionosphere and plasmasphere in influencing electron density changes. Analysis of total electron content (TEC) on 7 September 2017 shows that for a pair of geomagnetically conjugate locations, positive storm effect was observed reaching about 65% when benchmarked on the monthly median TEC variability in the Northern Hemisphere, while the Southern Hemisphere remained within the quiet time variability threshold of ±40%. Over the investigated locations, the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes showed positive TEC deviations that were in most cases twice the comparative response level in the Northern Hemisphere on the 8 September 2017. During the storm main phase on 8 September 2017, we have obtained an interesting result of ionosonde maximum electron density of the F2 layer and TEC derived from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations showing different ionospheric responses over the same midlatitude location in the Northern Hemisphere. In situ electron density measurements from SWARM satellite aided by bottomside ionosonde-derived TEC up to the maximum height of the F2 layer (hmF2) revealed that the bottomside and topside ionosphere as well as plasmasphere electron content contributions to overall GNSS-derived TEC were different in both hemispheres especially for 8 September 2017 during the storm main phase. The differences in hemispheric response at conjugate locations and on a regional scale have been explained in terms of seasonal influence on the background electron density coupled with the presence of large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances and low-latitude-associated processes. The major highlight of this study is the simultaneous confirmation of most of the previously observed features and their underlying physical mechanisms during geo

This paper introduces a new system that can monitor aurora and atmospheric airglow using a low-cost Watec monochromatic imager (WMI) equipped with a sensitive camera, a filter with high transmittance, and the non-telecentric optics. The WMI system with 486-nm, 558-nm, and 630-nm band-pass filters has observable luminosity of about ~200–4000 Rayleigh for 1.07-sec exposure time and about ~40–1200 Rayleigh for 4.27-sec exposure time, for example. It is demonstrated that the WMI system is capable of detecting 428-nm auroral intensities properly, through comparison with those measured with a collocated electron-multiplying charge-coupled device (EMCCD) imager system with narrower band-pass filter. The WMI system has two distinct advantages over the existing system: One makes it possible to reduce overall costs, and the other is that it enables the continuous observation even under twilight and moonlight conditions. Since 2013 a set of multi-wavelength WMIs has been operating in northern Scandinavia, Svalbard, and Antarctica to study meso- and large-scale aurora and airglow phenomena. Future development of the low-cost WMI system is expected to provide a great opportunity for constructing a global network for multi-wavelength aurora and airglow monitoring.

Observations of relativistic energetic electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt can show dropouts, that is, sudden electron flux depletions during the main phase of a geomagnetic storm. Many recent studies show that these dropouts typically involve a true loss of particles, that is, nonadiabatic losses in nature. Precipitation into the atmosphere of relativistic electrons driven into the bounce loss cone, through wave-particle interactions, is envisaged as one of the primary loss mechanisms. Such precipitation can be studied using ground-based observations such as VLF narrowband radio waves, due to the deposition of energy into the lower ionospheric D-region, thereby modifying the subionospheric waveguide. The present study focuses on the dropout event observed during the St. Patrick's Day storm of March 2015. Perturbations lasting several hours were observed in the received VLF amplitude and phase of the NAA transmitter signal measured at Seattle and Edmonton and the NML transmitter signal received at St. John's and Edmonton. All these L approximate to 3-4.5 paths were located on the nightside of the Earth during dropout phase of the storm. Observations of relativistic electron characteristics from Van Allen Probes, and ionospheric perturbation characterization from VLF radio waves, are used to calculate that during the time interval of the dropout event

Early forest fire detection can effectively be achieved by systems of specialised tower-mounted cameras. With the aim of maximising system visibility of smoke above a prescribed region, the process of selecting multiple tower sites from a large number of potential site locations is a complex combinatorial optimisation problem. Historically, these systems have been planned by foresters and locals with intimate knowledge of the terrain rather than by computational optimisation tools. When entering vast new territories, however, such knowledge and expertise may not be available to system planners. A tower site-selection optimisation framework that may be used in such circumstances is described in this paper. Metaheuristics are used to determine candidate site layouts for an area in the Nelspruit region in South Africa currently monitored by the ForestWatch detection system. Visibility cover superior to that of the existing system in the region is achieved and obtained in several days, whereas traditional approaches normally require months of speculation and planning. Following the results presented here, the optimisation framework is earmarked for use in future ForestWatch system planning.