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This brief presents an overview of Ukraine's economy before and during the first ten months of the Russo-Ukraine war, as well as some preliminary considerations for the post-war economy. Although Ukraine's economic growth trailed many of its peers in the years leading up the invasion, the country possesses certain economic and institutional strengths over most countries at a similar level of development. While these strengths should make reconstruction less difficult, the situation remains fraught with difficulties. Many of the activities that make the largest economic contributions, particularly to exports, take place in the eastern regions of Ukraine or in the Kyiv capital region. These areas have either been temporarily occupied by Russia or face a greater military threat by Russia than the poorer, more peaceful, western parts of the country. The country's public finances are deeply in deficit, so restoring strong export revenues is critical to Ukraine's economic recovery. As long as the war continues, Ukraine's public finances and military efforts must largely be financed by foreign partners.

In this note, we review recent data concerning Russia's economic integration with other countries. We first analyze the general picture of Russia's economic integration with the rest of the world and the importance of foreign economic relations for the country. We then turn to China, an increasingly significant economic partner for Russia. The European Union remains Russia's most important trading partner and is by far the most important source of foreign direct investment to Russia as well as sources of other financing. China's importance to Russia has also increased, especially with respect to merchandise trade.

This issue provides an overview of the state of the Russian economy. In eight shorter contributions international experts discuss the longer-term trajectories of the Russian economy and assess the impact of Western sanctions and the Covid-19 pandemic. Separate contributions look at the real sector of the economy and agriculture. The financial sector features prominently in several contributions. Finally, based on an assessment of past trends several contributions provide an outlook for Russia’s socio-economic development. At the end of the issue there is a section with graphs illustrating the development of major macro-economic indicators over the last 25 years., Diese Ausgabe bietet einen Überblick über den Zustand der russischen Wirtschaft. In acht kürzeren Beiträgen diskutieren internationale Experten die längerfristige Entwicklung der russischen Wirtschaft und bewerten die Auswirkungen westlicher Sanktionen und der Covid-19-Pandemie. Einzelne Beiträge befassen sich mit der Realwirtschaft und der Landwirtschaft. Der Finanzsektor wird in mehreren Beiträgen behandelt. Auf der Grundlage einer Bewertung der bisherigen Trends geben mehrere Beiträge einen Ausblick auf die zukünftige sozioökonomische Entwicklung Russlands. Am Ende der Ausgabe folgt ein Abschnitt mit Grafiken, die die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung Russlands im Verlauf der letzten 25 Jahre illustrieren., Russian Analytical Digest (RAD), 268, ISSN:1863-0421

This paper updates my earlier calculations on Russia's long-run growth potential using a standard growth accounting framework in which GDP growth depends on available labor, capital and efficiency in combining them, i.e. total factor productivity. Russia's economy has grown relatively slowly during the past decade, partly because of declining labor force. In my revised framework, growth recovers after the negative COVID-19 shock, but remains subdued as the working-age population continues to dwindle. Productivity growth remains lower than in the early 2000s, while average GDP growth settles at approximately 1.5% p.a.

This paper offers a systematic evaluation of the evidence on the effects of currency unions on the synchronisation of economic activity. Focusing on Europe, we construct a database of about 3000 business cycles synchronisation coefficients including their design and estimation characteristics. We find that: (1) synchronisation increased from about 0.4 before the introduction of the euro in 1999 to 0.6 afterwards; (2) this increase occurred in both euro and non-euro countries (larger in former); and (3) there is evidence of country-specific publication bias., International Review of Financial Analysis, 61

This paper offers a first systematic evaluation of the evidence on the effects of currency unions on the synchronisation of economic activity. Focusing on Europe, we construct a database of about 3,000 business cycles synchronisation coefficients and their design and estimation characteristics. We find that: (1) synchronisation increased from about 0.4 before the introduction of the euro in 1999 to 0.6 afterwards; (2) this increase occurred in both euro and non-euro countries (larger in former); (3) there is evidence of country-specific publication bias; (4) our differences-in-differences estimates suggest the euro accounted for approximately half of the observed increase in synchronisation.

China's rise has been the economic success story of the past four decades but economic growth has been slowing and domestic imbalances have widened. This paper analyses the recent evolution of China's imbalances, the risks they pose to the economic outlook and the potential impact of a transition to sustainable growth in China on the global and euro area economies. The paper documents China's heavy reliance on investment and credit as drivers of growth, which has created vulnerabilities in a number of sectors and has been accompanied by increased complexity and leverage in the financial system. China retains some buffers, including policy space, to cushion against adverse shocks for the time being, but additional structural reforms would facilitate a shift of China's economy onto a sustainable and strong growth trajectory in the medium term. China's size, trade openness, dominant position as consumer of commodities and growing financial integration mean that its transition to sustainable growth is crucial for the global economic outlook. Simulation analysis using global macro models suggests that the spillovers to the euro area would be limited in the case of a modest slowdown in China's GDP growth, but significant in the case of a sharp downturn. Sensitivity analysis underscores that the spillovers are dependent on the strengths of the various transmission channels, as well as the policy reaction by central banks and governments.

This paper offers a first systematic evaluation of the evidence on the effects of currency unions on the synchronisation of economic activity. Focusing on Europe, we construct a database of about 3,000 business cycles synchronisation coefficients and their design and estimation characteristics. We find that: (1) synchronisation increased from about 0.4 before the introduction of the euro in 1999 to 0.6 afterwards; (2) this increase occurred in both euro and non-euro countries (larger in former); (3) there is evidence of country-specific publication bias; (4) our differences-in-differences estimates suggest the euro accounted for approximately half of the observed increase in synchronisation.

In emerging market economies, transmission of monetary policy through the foreign exchange market is complicated by the coexistence of financial restrictions and arbitrages. Using China as an example, we show that the coexistence of exchange rate interventions, capital controls and an on-shore-offshore exchange rate differential makes the long run equilibrium in the currency market nonlinear. Disturbances to this nonlinear long run equilibrium could offset the impact of monetary policy actions on domestic price stability. Omitting such nonlinearity leads to biased inference on the effectiveness of monetary policy.