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Background: Prostate cancer recurrence after definitive local therapy usually involves the bone and regional lymph nodes. Case Report: We present the case of a 72-year-old male patient with an isolated lung nodule, seven years after radical prostatectomy for prostate cancer, pT2bN0 and Gleason score 7(4+3), and prostatic-specific antigen (PSA) levels within normal limits. The nodule was considered as a primary lung cancer and the patient was subjected to lobectomy. The immunohistochemical staining showed that the tumor was PSA(+) and NKX3.1 (+), revealing that it was metastasis from prostatic cancer and that wedge resectomy was the proper procedure. Three years later the patient is disease-free, suggesting the importance of aggressive treatment of oligometastatic disease. Conclusion: Metastasis to the lung is present in more than 40% of men with metastatic prostate cancer; however, lung metastases without any bone or lymph node involvement are extremely rare and only a handful of cases are reported in the literature. Surgical excision of the metastatic lung site is the most common therapeutic approach associated with a good prognosis.

20/01/2023: Table 1.1 - rounding error corrected. Figure 1.1 - figure legend corrected. Executive summary In 2018 the European Commission submitted a Special Request to ICES to investigate the contribution of Total Allowable Catches (TACs) to fisheries management and stock conservation for brill (27.3a47de), turbot (27.4), lemon sole (27.3a47d), witch (27.3a47d) and whiting (27.3a). ICES was requested to analyse the role of the Total Allowable Catch (TAC) instrument and to assess the risks of removing TACs in light of the requirement to ensure that the stock concerned remains within safe biological limits in the short and middle term. In 2022 the EU and UK submitted a new request to ICES to investigate whether conclusions from 2018 remain valid, and to update the advice if needed. The request concerns four stocks: brill (27.3a47de), turbot (27.4), lemon sole (27.3a47d) and witch (27.3a47d). It was agreed to answer the request by updating the answers to a series of six questions addressed in the 2018 request. The six questions were as follows: Was the TAC restrictive in the past? Is there a targeted fishery for the stock or are the species mainly discarded? Is the stock of large economic importance or are the species of high value? How are the most important fisheries for the stock managed? What are the fishing effort and stock trends over time? What maximum effort of the main fleets can be expected under management based on FMSY (ranges) for the target stocks, and has the stock experienced similar levels of fishing effort before? This report describes the analysis for brill, turbot, witch flounder and lemon sole first covering each of the above questions, then providing concluding sections.

The ICES Working Group on Mixed Fisheries Methodology (WGMIXFISH-METHODS) meet to progress work on the improvement and development of the mixed fisheries advice. In this report the group provides a summary of the work completed in 2020. Work continued on the full documentation of the mixed fisheries advice production process, including workflows, code repositories, stock annexes and associated documentation for all advice regions. A review was completed of the new data call and associated quality control procedures to identify possible areas of improvements. Working group participants responded to the outcomes and issues encountered during WGMIXFISH-Advice 2019 for Celtic Sea, Iberian Waters, and North Sea. A full list of issues and solutions were collated and discussed during the meeting. Additionally, work continued on the development of mixed fisheries advice for three new advice regions: Bay of Biscay, Irish Sea, and Kattegat.The working group responded to the outcomes of the Mixed Fisheries Scoping Meeting (WKMIXFISH), identifying timelines and requirements to meet the growing needs for mixed fisheries advice. To support these growing needs the group members presented and discussed new techniques in the field of mixed fisheries.

The ICES Working Group on Mixed Fisheries Methodology (WGMIXFISH-METHODS) met to progress work on the improvement and development of the mixed fisheries advice. In this report the group provides a summary of the work completed in 2021.Work continued on the full review and documentation of the mixed fisheries advice production process, including workflows, code repositories, stock annexes, data, and associated documentation for all advice regions.Working group participants responded to the outcomes and issues encountered during WGMIXFISH-Advice 2020 for Bay of Biscay, Celtic Sea, Iberian Waters, and North Sea. A full list of issues and solutions were collated and discussed during the meeting. Additionally, work continued on the development of mixed fisheries advice for on the Irish Sea. The working group responded to the outcomes of the Scoping workshop on next generation of mixed fisheries advice (WKMIXFISH 2020), identifying timelines and requirements to meet the growing needs for mixed fisheries advice. To support these growing needs the group members presented and discussed new techniques in the field of mixed fisheries.

Danish fishermen have experienced a decline in coastal fishing resources and have called for an explanation of these changes. For example, cod and plaice appear to have changed their distributions with less fish present in coastal areas. The project aims at explaining this apparent strong decline in cod and plaice in coastal waters by using a range of approaches including genetic analyses of juvenile and adult individuals, statistical models of suitable habitats, numerical models linking hydrography and life history to resolve population connectivity over several years. The results produced in the project can improve our understanding of the factors driving changes in distribution and abundance of coastal fish populations and can inform assessment working groups on those species targeting the adequate management of the different stocks. Observations on hydrography and fish catches obtained from standard research cruises and monitoring stations in the Kattegat confirm the tendency of a reduction of adult cod in coastal areas in the investigated period (1995-2015). In details, while the relative abundances of the younger 1-year old cod in shallow areas (1.5 °C since 1990) and a reduction in surface salinity, regulated by the freshening of the Baltic Sea in the same period. These results indicate substantial changes of the surface layers in the Kattegat while the deeper parts appear less affected. Since the relative changes occurring in surface and deeper layers in the Kattegat, we can infer that coastal habitats for cod and plaice are now significantly different than in the past (e.g., conditions before the 1990). We can hypothesize that changes in hydrography could elicit a behavioural response in adult fish, which could move into deeper parts and away from shallow coastal areas. The hypothesis is consistent with genetic data on juvenile cod. Indeed, the Kattegat region is composed by a mixed population of cod with North Sea origin and local Kattegat cod, while juvenile plaice appear to be predominantly locally recruited. Although the region is characterized by large year-to-year variability we detect the tendency of North Sea cod to use deeper areas than those from the Kattegat, possibly indicating different levels of adaptation and plasticity as well as differential exposure to observed environmental changes. Results from the modelling of transport of eggs and larvae of both cod and plaice are in agreement with the genetic results of local recruitment for plaice and large year-to-year fluctuations in the mixing of cod individuals. Detailed analyses of the connectivity patterns in the period 1990-2012 show no major changes in the transport of juveniles between different regions. For cod major exchanges within the Baltic sea regions support the management of this population as a single stock. On the other hand, exchanges between North Sea and Kattegat are more variable and largely correlated with inflow and outflow events in the Baltic. We conclude that changes in distributions of commercial fish stocks, such as the decrease in fish abundances especially in coastal areas observed in Danish waters, could potentially bias the estimate of stock abundance obtained through research surveys. Hence, given the complicated interactions between topographical changes, hydrography, food web and individual behaviour we recommend that better monitoring strategies for the entire stock distribution range, including coastal areas, should be developed possibly making use of modern observation technologies for autonomous habitat mapping. Overall, it is clear that the stock assessment and management challenges in such complex transition areas cannot simply be solved by adjusting boundaries for stock assessment, as movement and mixing occurs across the entire transition zone from the North Sea into the Baltic. Merging a larger area would solve the issue of movements between smaller areas, however would lose track of the dynamics and status of individual populations, which is important for understanding the stock dynamics of the species in an area, and develop appropriate management solutions. Thus, a remaining challenge is to find an optimal way to take into account the biological knowledge of stock mixing and connectivity in stock assessment and management. This challenge could be faced by supporting a holistic integrated ecosystem approach. Indeed, there is a need for integrated knowledge of connectivity across areas, focussing on stock mixing and the major drivers at fine spatial scales. A pilot study on Integrated Ecosystem Assessment (IEA) in the Skagerrak-Kattegat region could be developed through five steps: (1) Scoping management objectives and available data (2) Identify and score all drivers and pressures acting on the system (3) Define indicators for ecosystem state and track their dynamics in time and space (4) Assess ecosystem status and vulnerabilities (5) Inform fishery management and policy makers on the boundaries for the sustainable development of the area under future scenarios.

The main terms of reference for the The ICES Working Group for the Assessment of Demersal Stocks in the North Sea and Skagerrak (WGNSSK) were: to update, quality check and report relevant data for the working group, to update and audit the assessment and forecasts of the stocks, to produce a first draft of the advice on the fish stocks and to prepare planning for benchmarks in future years. Ecosystem changes have been analytically considered in the assessments for cod, haddock and whiting in the form of varying natural mortalities estimated by the ICES Working Group on Multi Species Assessment Methods (WGSAM). Benchmarks and Inter-benchmarks in 2019/2020Full benchmarks were conducted during 2020 for WGNSSK stocks. These were on 3.a turbot, 3.a whiting, sole in 7.d and sole in 4. However, there were no inter-benchmark protocol (IBP) meetings during 2020. State of the StocksThe main impression in recent years is that fishing pressure has been reduced substantially for many North Sea stocks of roundfish and flatfish compared to the beginning of the century. All fish stocks with agreed reference points (Category 1 stocks) are above Blim, apart from cod in 4, 7.d and 20, and only the SSBs of cod in 4, 7.d and 20 and sole in 4 are below MSY Btrigger at the beginning of 2020. Several North Sea stocks are exploited at or below FMSY levels (haddock in 4, 6.a, plaice in 4 and 20 and sole in 7.d); however, several others are being fished above FMSY (cod in 4, 7.d and 20, saithe in 3.a, 4 and 6, whiting in 4 and 7.d, sole in 4, plaice in 7.d, turbot in 4 and witch in 3.a, 4 and 7.d). An important feature is that recruitment still remains poor compared to historic average levels for most gadoids, although there are signs of a strong recruitment forhaddock and whiting in 2019. Recruitment in 2019 continues on a high level also for flatfish stocks of plaice, sole and turbot.All Nephrops stocks with agreed biomass reference points (Category 1 stocks, excluding nep.fu.3-4) are currently above MSY Btrigger, and all Nephrops stocks with defined FMSY (Category 1 stocks, including) are being fished above FMSY in 2019, apart from Nephrops in FU 7 (nep.fu.7) and FU 3-4 (nep.fu.3-4) which are fished sustainably.WGNSSK is also responsible for the assessment of several data-limited species (Category 3+stocks) that are mainly by catch in demersal fisheries (brill in 3.a, 4 and 7.d-e, lemon sole in 3.a, 4 and 7.d, dab in 3.a and 4, flounder in 3.a and 4, sol in 7.d turbot in 3.a, whiting in 3a), along with grey gurnard in 3.a, 4 and 7d and striped red mullet in 3.a, 4 and 7.d. Biennial precautionary approach (PA) advice was provided in 2015 for the first time, and again in 2017 and 2019; for 2020, biennial advice was either PA, where catch advice was still needed, or simply reporting stock status where no catch advice was needed. Reopening of advice was triggered for several Category 1 stocks in the autumn, following the availability of Q3 survey results in 2019, namely cod in 4, 7.d and 20, haddock in 4, 6.a and 20, plaice in 4 and 20, sole in 4, and Nephrops in FU 6, 7 and 8 (Annex 7). The summary of stock status is as follows:1) Nephrops:Category 1:a) FU 3-4 (nep.fu.3-4): The stock size is considered to be stable. The estimated harvest rate for this stock is currently below FMSY. No reference points for stock size have beendefined for this stock.b) FU 6 (nep.fu.6): The stock abundance has increased since 2015, and currently it is above MSY Btrigger. The harvest rate has shown an increase since 2018, and is above FMSY in 2019.c) FU 7 (nep.fu.7): The stock size has been above MSY Btrigger for most of the time-series. The harvest rate has increased in 2019 but remains below FMSY.d) FU 8 (nep.fu.8): The stock size has been above MSY Btrigger for the entire time-series. The harvest rate is varying, increased in 2019 and is now above FMSY.e) FU 9 (nep.fu.9): The stock has been above MSY Btrigger for the entire time-series. The harvest rate has fluctuated around FMSY in recent years and is now above FMSY.Category 4:f) FU 32 (nep.fu.32): The available data is non-conclusive with regard to stock status, in recent years landings have relatively low.g) FU 33 (nep.fu.33): The state of this stock is unknown. Landings have been relatively stable since 2004, fluctuating without trend at around 1000 tonnes. The mean densityof Norway lobster decreased 2017 to 2019. Advice was provided for this stock in 2019 (although it was not scheduled) because of the availability of data from a UWTV survey conducted in 2018.h) FU 34 (nep.fu.34): The current state of the stock is unknown.i) FU 5 (nep.fu.5): The status of this stock is uncertain. Assuming the density has been constant since 2012, the harvest rate in 2018 and 2019, corresponding to the total landings, has decreased and now below the MSY proxy reference point.j) FU 10 (nep.fu.10): The current state of the stock is unknown.Category 5:k) Out of FU (nep.27.4outFU): The current state of the stock is unknown. No new advice was provided in spring 2020 for Nephrops stocks but advice was delayed until autumn 2020:2) Cod (cod.27.47d20): Fishing pressure has increased since 2016, and is above Flim in 2019. Spawning-stock biomass has decreased since 2015 and is now below Blim. Recruitment since 1998 remains poor. Currently, fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY, Fpa and Flim; the spawning-stock size is below MSY Btrigger, Bpa and Blim.3) Haddock (had.27.46a20): Fishing pressure has declined since the beginning of the 2000s, but it has been above FMSY for most of the time-series. Only in 2019, fishing pressure is at FMSY. Spawning-stock biomass has been above MSY Btrigger in most of the years since 2002. Recruitment since 2000 has been low with occasional larger year classes. The 2019 yearclass is estimated to be one of the largest since 2000. Currently, fishing pressure on the stock is at FMSY, but below Fpa and Flim, and spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa and Blim.4) Whiting (whg.27.47d): Spawning-stock biomass has fluctuated around MSY Btrigger since the mid-1980s and is just above it in 2020. Fishing pressure has been above FMSY throughout the time-series, apart from 2005. Recruitment (R) has been fluctuating without trend, but the 2019 year-class is estimated to be the largest since 2002. Currently, fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY, but below Fpa and Flim; spawning-stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa and Blim.5) Saithe (pok.27.3a46): Spawning-stock biomass has fluctuated without trend and has beenabove MSY Btrigger since 1996. Fishing pressure has decreased and stabilized at or above FMSY since 2014. Recruitment has shown an overall decreasing trend over time with lowest levels in the past 10 years. Currently, fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY and Fpa, but below Flim; spawning-stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa and Blim.6) Plaice (ple.27.420): The spawning-stock biomass is well above MSY Btrigger and has markedly increased since 2008, following a substantial reduction in fishing pressure since 1999. Recruitment in 2019 is estimated to be the second highest in the time-series. Since 2009, fishing pressure has been estimated below FMSY. Currently, fishing pressure on the stock is below FMSY, Fpa and Flim, and spawning-stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa and Blim.7) Sole (sol.27.4): The spawning-stock biomass has fluctuated around Blim since 2003, and has been estimated to be below MSY Btrigger since 1999. Fishing pressure has declined since 1999 and is above FMSY in 2019. Recruitment in 2019 is estimated to be the highest since the start of the time series in 1957. Currently, fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY, but below Fpa and Flim, and spawning-stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa and Blim.8) Plaice (ple.27.7d): The spawning-stock biomass has increased rapidly from 2010 following a period of high recruitment between 2009 and 2015, and is now still well above the MSY Btrigger, despite a decline since 2016. Fishing pressure has declined since the early 2000s, with an increase in the recent years to slightly above FMSY. Recruitment in 2019 is currently estimated to be highest in the time series since 1980. Currently, fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY, but below Fpa and Flim, and spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa and Blim.9) Turbot (tur.27.4): Recruitment is variable without a trend. In 2019 recruitment is estimated to be above average of the time series. Fishing pressure has decreased since the mid-1990s, and has been just below FMSY since 2012. The spawning-stock biomass has increased since 2005 and has been above MSY Btrigger since 2013. This stock was upgraded to Category 1 from Category 3 following an inter-benchmark during 2018. Currently, fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY, but below Fpa and Flim; spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa and Blim.10) Witch (wit.27.3a47d): Fishing pressure has been above FMSY since the beginning of the time-series. Spawning-stock biomass that was below Blim around 2010, has increased since then and is now above MSY Btrigger. Recruitment has declined since 2010 and is currently at a low level. This stock was upgraded to Category 1 from Category 3 following a benchmark during 2018. Currently, fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY and at Fpa, but below Flim, and spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger, Bpa and Blim.11) Norway pout (nop.27.3a4): The stock size is highly variable from year to year, due to recruitment variability and a short life span. Spawning-stock biomass is estimated to have been fluctuating above Bpa for most of the time-series. Fishing pressure declined between 1985 and 1995 and has been fluctuating at a lower level since 1995. Recruitment in 2018 and 2019 was above the long-term average. Currently, spawning stock size is above Bpa and Blim; no reference points for fishing pressure or for MSY Btrigger have been defined for this stock.12) Category 3–6 finfish stocks: In 2020, new advice has been produced for bll.27.3a47de, lem.27.3a47d, tur.27.3a, sol.7d (all Category 3 stocks) and whg.27.3a (Category 5). Advice was not provided for gug.27.3a47d, dab.27.3a4, fle.27.3a4, mur.27.3a47d (Category 3) and pol.27.3a4 (Category 5).a) Brill (bll.27.3a47de): The biomass index has been gradually increasing over the timeseries until 2015, and has then decreased. Currently, fishing pressure on the stock is below FMSY proxy and spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger proxy.b) Grey gurnard (gug.27.3a47d): The time-series of mature biomass index of grey gurnard from the International Bottom Trawl Survey quarter 1 (IBTS-Q1) shows a strong increase from the beginning of 1990s and has since fluctuated at a high level. Fishing pressure is estimated to be below the FMSY proxy. No reference points for stock size have been defined for this stock.c) Lemon sole (lem.27.3a47d): Total mortality has fluctuated without trend. Spawningstock biomass increased from 2007 to 2012, and has remained stable since, albeit with a small decline in 2018. Recruitment has shown a mostly downwards trend since a peak in 2011, but relatively high recruitment is estimated for 2019. Currently, fishing pressure on the stock is below FMSY proxy. No reference points for stock size have been defined for this stock.d) Turbot (tur.27.3a): Catches peaked in the late 1970s and early 1990s and have been more stable in recent years. Relative exploitable biomass (B/Bmsy) declined towards2000 without a trend in later years. Relative fishing pressure (F/Fmsy) peaked in the late 1970s and early 1990s without a trend in more recent years. Currently, fishing pressure on the stock is above FMSY proxy and spawning stock size is above MSY Btrigger proxy.e) Whiting (whg.27.3a): Catches have been relatively low in recent years after a substantial industrial fishery ceased in the mid-1990s. The stock size indicator has been fluctuating and is now around the long-term mean. ICES cannot assess the stock and exploitation status relative to MSY and precautionary approach reference points because the reference points are undefined.f) Sole (sol.27.7d): This stock was downgraded from Category 1 to Category 3 following the Interbenchmark in 2019 and Benchmark in 2020. The XSA assessment is indicativeof trends only. The spawning-stock biomass (SSB) has been fluctuating without trend and has been above MSY Btrigger since 2010. Fishing pressure (F) has shown a decreasing trend since 2009 and has been below FMSY proxy since 2016. Recruitment has been fluctuating without trend. In 2019, the recruitment is estimated to be the highest of the time series.Summary of retrospective analysis (WKFORBIAS decision tree)To quantify retrospective patterns in the assessments of category 1 stocks, estimates of five year retrospective peels are produced for fishing pressure, SSB and recruitment and plotted with confidence bounds of the current assessment. The retrospective statistics (Mohn’s rho) are reported as a measure of quality. Following the decision tree formulated by WKFORBIAS (ICES 2020) to ensure more consistency in how advice is provided. Only sole in 4 and cod 4 7d and 20 showed significant retrospective patterns in SSB (Mohn’s rho above 0.2). For cod advice is given as usual since only 2 out of recent 5 peels and only 1 out of recent 3 peels fall outside the confidence bounds. A benchmark is planned in 2021 to address the retrospective pattern for cod further. For sole most of the retrospective peels fall outside the confidence bounds. The stock has recently undergone a benchmark and the retrospective pattern could not be solved yet. However, the target F (FMSY) in the forecast for 2021 is well below the F05 estimated using EqSim, and advice is given as usual this year.

A Benchmark Workshop for Demersal species (WKDEM), chaired by External Chair Richard D.M. Nash, UK and ICES Chair Daniel Howell, Norway and attended by two invited external experts Amy Schueller, US and Robert Boenish, US met at ICES, HQ, Copenhagen 9–13 December 2019 for a data evaluation meeting and at ICES HQ, Copenhagen, Denmark, for a Benchmark meeting 10–14 February 2020. In addition, two WebEx meetings were convened (23rd October 2019 and 23rd February 2020) to discuss data issues and logistics related to the work plan prior to the data evaluation meeting and the Benchmark.Four demersal stocks were Benchmarked in WKDEM, Haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus) in subareas 1 and 2 (Northeast Arctic) (Had.27.1–2), Cod (Gadus morhua) in Division 6.a (West of Scotland) (Cod.27.6a), Whiting (Merlangius merlangus) in Division 6.a (West of Scotland) (Whg.27.6a) and Whiting in Division 3.a (Skagerrak and Kattegat) (Whg.27.3a).The 2020 benchmark for Northeast Arctic Haddock was proposed due to the poor retrospective pattern (annually changing perception of the stock) for the assessment in 2018. The final SAM model was based on the updated dataset and a new SAM setting allowing for plus groups in surveys. The final model had a lower AIC and more parameters compared to the configuration used in the previous assessment with the same data as the final model. Some changes were made to the prediction models, mainly to reflect the current perception of the stock dynamics. The reference points were not changed.The 2020 benchmark for 6.a cod was proposed initially due to uncertainties in the catch data and the selectivity patterns in the catch and survey data. In addition, a separate analysis of the stock estimated a different trend in fishing mortality and higher biomass, which lead to an inter-benchmark in February 2019. A number of alternative assessment methods were considered with a decision to switch from the TSA model to SAM. An improved approach to estimating area-misreported landings was implemented, and maturity and natural mortality values were modified. The survey data included in the final assessment are consistent (in terms of year and age range) with those used previously. The reference points were updated having been derived following the ICES guidelines and using EqSim. There was some concern that an alternative model, FAFmodel, along with an extension to allow natural mortality to be estimated by the model (“TVM” model) provided a different perception of the stock dynamics. The latter model was not presented for evaluation prior to the Benchmark and as such needs to be evaluated as to its efficacy for assessment of this stock in the future.The 2020 benchmark for 6.a whiting was proposed because the assessment was influenced partly by incorrect reporting of landings data (species and quantity) from the past which directly affected the perception of the stock. There were newly available catch data and reworked survey indices (including the combined Irish and Scottish Q4 survey), plus reworked maturity and natural mortality estimates were available. It became clear that running TSA with the new data and changed survey configuration resulted in poorly converged optimisation runs. An age-aggregated stochastic Surplus Production in Continuous Time (SPiCT) model was tried but the modelled stock level was highly uncertain, although the trends were considered more robust. The result was to reclassify 6.a whiting to category 3 using the SPiCT model to give trends, according to the ICES guidelines for data-limited stocks.The 2020 benchmark for 3.a whiting was proposed because it was considered a category 5 stock with no advice and more information is available (time-series of catches (landings and discards), a new fisheries independent biomass index that combines all relevant scientific surveys in the area) that were not being used but could be utilised to infer stock status and provide better catch advice. The outcome was to reclassify the stock to category 3 and provide advice using the “2-over-3” trend based approach with the new biomass index. An attempt to provide an analytical assessment for the stock using the surplus production model (SPiCT) was unsuccessful.

The Workshop on the Development of Quantitative Assessment Methodologies based on Lifehistory traits, exploitation characteristics, and other relevant parameters for data-limited stocks (WKLIFE X), chaired by Carl O'Brien (UK) and Manuela Azevedo (Portugal) met virtually 5–9 October 2020, to further develop methods for stock assessment and catch advice for stocks in Categories 3 and 4, focusing on the provision of sound advice rules that are within the ICES MSY framework. This tenth workshop was convened to further address the challenges to the evidence base for the provision of ICES advice with specific reference to data-limited stocks. There is an increasing number of fish stocks in Categories 3 and 4 for which assessment of status relative to MSY proxy reference points is available but for which short-term forecasts and MSY-based advice are not available. For assessments using the stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), WKLIFE X developed and evaluated ‘fractile rules’ that account for uncertainty and allow to consider any percentile and demonstrated that ‘fractile rules’ are more effective and precautionary than the median rule (50th percentile) and the ‘2 over-3’ rule. Additional work on advice rules for stocks in Category 3 based on life-history traits (k), tested through simulation and management strategy evaluation (MSE), showed that the addition of specific multipliers based on the stock’s life-history characteristics decreases the risk of the control rule´s performance. Annex 3 to this report contains the revised technical guidance on methods and advice rules for stocks in Category 3. The revision of the accumulated decade of ICES documentation on methods and advice for data-limited stocks into a stand-alone technical guidance document requires significant effort and dedicated work beyond the time available at the WKLIFE X meeting. It is proposed that a dedicated workshop be established to undertake and complete the updating and revision into a single reference document.

The WKFlatNSCS benchmark was convened to evaluate the appropriateness of data and methods to determine stock status for four sole stocks; North Sea (Sol.27.4), eastern English Channel (Sol.27.7d), Bristol Channel, Celtic Sea (Sol.27.7fg) and southwest of Ireland (Sol.27.7h–k); and one turbot stock, Skagerrak and Kattegat (tur.27.3a).For sole in the North Sea a new index of stock abundance was derived, combining data from Belgium, Germany and The Netherlands (two survey series using different vessels). An updated category 1 assessment was agreed, continuing to use the Aarts and Poos model previously employed. Reference points were calculated using Eqsim and the forecast settings agreed.For sole in the eastern English Channel, the main objective of the benchmark was to resolve an issue with the plus group in the French landings and commercial landings per unit of effort data. The catch data were revised several times between the data evaluation workshop and the benchmark meeting, and at the benchmark meeting, it became clear that there were issues that could not be addressed at that time concerning:1. whether the methodology used to estimate ages for length classes where no samples for ageing had been taken was appropriate; and,2. whether the calculations of effort being used to raise the sampled discards was being calculated appropriately and consistently between the sampled fleet and the total fleet.As a result it was not possible to evaluate whether the catch-at-age data were appropriate for the assessment, or to evaluate the performance of an assessment. A further process following the benchmark meeting will be set up to complete this work.For Sole in Bristol Channel, Celtic Sea, maturity assumptions and average stock weights-at-age were revised. An updated category 1 assessment was developed, reducing the reliance on commercial tuning series, and moving to a statistical catch-at-age model (SAM). Reference points were calculated using Eqsim and the forecast settings agreed.For Sole in the southwest of Ireland, no appropriate method for evaluating the stock status and trends was found, due to the sampling only covering a small part of the total fishery, which is not considered to be representative of the whole area. The Workshop agreed to use category 5 to provide advice for this stock.For Turbot in Skagerrak and Kattegat, a synthesis of work on stock boundaries within Division 3a was presented, indicating that turbot in this area may be part of two stocks, the North Sea and Baltic Sea. A combined index from five surveys (BTS, BITS, IBTS and two Danish national surveys) was used as a tuning index for a SPiCT biomass dynamics model to determine stock status.The Workshop identified the need for future work:• to provide a basis for catch advice for sole in 7d this year;• to collect more sample data from 7h and to identify whether sole in 7h are connected to those in 7e or 7fg by genetics and movement for a future benchmark;• to investigate whether the management boundaries for turbot in 3a are appropriate based on current understanding of stock boundaries for a future benchmark.

A substantial proportion of EU's fish stocks lack a quantitative assessment and are therefore regarded as data-limited. The goal of the present project and report, i.e. to provide and improve quantitative assessments of data-limited stocks, is therefore a prerequisite to the implementation of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) and to promote sustainable fisheries. Specifically, the project and report addresses Article 2 of the CFP stating that the objective is to achieve exploitation levels that restore and maintain populations above levels which can produce the maximum sustainable yield (MSY). This cannot be achieved without quantitative assessments. Furthermore, as a result of the landing obligation (CFP article 15) data-limited stocks acting as "choke-species" in mixed fisheries have a significant risk of limiting the fishery of high-value stocks. Obtaining quantitative assessments and fleet-specific fishing mortalities as further developed in this project is a necessary step toward mitigating the impact of choke-species and improving management of such fisheries. By improving knowledge about data-limited fish stocks, the project minimises the risk of yield reductions that result from an increased precautionary buffer applied when quantitative stock assessments are lacking. Similarly, the risk of overexploitation is minimised with the aim to prevent a subsequent potential long-term stock rebuilding period with reduction in quotas. The specific objectives of the project is to develop and implement further newly developed statistical methods by DTU Aqua for assessment and management strategy evaluation of data limited stocks in relation to MSY (Maximum Sustainable Yield) - with focus on broad accessibility and implementation – benefitting Danish, European and global fisheries. Furthermore, the aim is to improve the management basis for 4-6 data limited fish stocks with special importance for Danish fishery and which are managed conservatively because of limited available information. The specific stocks are selected in consultancy with stakeholders. The project has involved close collaboration with and feed-back from stakeholders within fisheries and management to ensure that the stocks selected as case studies are the most relevant to management and the fisheries industry. The project provides quantitative knowledge and new assessments regarding more than the 4-6 Danish data-limited fish stocks that the project was originally aiming for by project start. This knowledge is not only new, but has also been necessary to enable implementation of sustainable management for the stocks. Furthermore, the project has created the foundation for analytical assessments of these stocks and not least further development of the statistical assessment and forecast models. The sustainable management of fisheries demands the quantitative assessment of fisheries resources and exploitation patterns. However, underlying ecological and mathematical models are often a simplified representation of natural systems and are particularly challenged if available data is limited in quantity or quality. Therefore, it is important to not only understand underlying model assumptions, but also to quantify and account for associated assessment uncertainty. ManDaLiS has assessed several data-limited stocks with high relevance for the Danish fishery and evaluated existing and developed new data-limited assessment methods and management strategies. The focus has been on length-based assessment methods and biomass dynamic models, which are two important suits of methods for the assessment of data-limited stocks.The performance comparison of different length-based assessment methods under various recruitment and exploitation scenarios revealed strengths and shortcomings of the various methods and provides important guidance on model selection for stock assessors and managers. A novel approach to length-based stock assessment allows the quantification of assessment uncertainty and adds a new method to the stock assessment toolbox. The modification of the stochastic production model in continuous time (SPiCT) allows modelling time-variant productivity changes or regime shifts by a time-variant parameter for the intrinsic population growth rate. ManDaLiS has improved existing management strategies by incorporating stochastic harvest control rules which allow adjusting management advice (e.g. the total allowable catch (TAC)) as a function of assessment uncertainty. This approach is in line with the precautionary principle and reduces the TAC if the stock status is uncertain. The methodological developments achieved within the scope of ManDaLiS shed light on the trade-offs of different data-limited assessment methods and provide new assessment methods and management strategies. Most importantly, these developments allow the quantification and consideration of assessment uncertainty and thus, contribute to a sustainable management of fisheries. The landing obligation has drastically increased the importance of data-limited stocks as a result of the "choke-species" phenomenon. The DTU Aqua model used (SPiCT) has been upgraded to an ICES (International Council for Exploration of the Sea) standard assessment model for data poor stocks not least due to input from the current project. Furthermore, the novelty of the model improvements provided by the project has had a high impact to both the current and future advisory and scientific assessment development work within ICES. The case studies and model implementations have very much covered a large number of fish stocks that are important to Danish fishery. As such the models, their improvements and their implementation provide advice directly to and relevant for the Danish fisheries industry and all stakeholders within the fisheries sector. The results and methodological developments of the project are disseminated through four scientific manuscripts, whereof one is published, one accepted, and two are pending submission for publication, and through scientific conference presentations as well as summarised in several ICES working group reports (e.g. ICES WKLIFE VI-VIII, ICES WGNSSK, ICES WGBFAS, ICES WKMSYCat34, ICES WKPROXY, ICES WGECON). Project participants attended these working groups to make specific recommendations regarding future data calls, methodological directions, and assessment, advice and management strategies in general and for several stocks including stocks where a robust assessment cannot be provided. Furthermore, the implementation of the models have been affiliated further through ManDaLiS contributions to other EU projects covering the EU-Tender DRUMFISH, EU-Tender PROBYFISH, EU Tender EFICA, and EU-H2020-MEESO, and not least conducting a full PhD Study cofinanced between ManDaLiS (2 years) and a DTU Aqua internal PhD project (1 year) with input to stock assessments, methodological reviews and improved assessment methods. As such, the ManDaLiS project has also been further implemented and disseminated through the cooperation in international expert networks working under these international research projects, as well as implementation of the model developments under ManDaLiS in the assessments conducted under those research projects. There has been conducted three project workshops held in cooperation between the EMFF ManDaLiS and MSPTOOLS projects. One of the workshops was international and was held in association with and just after an International Conference Special Session: IIFET Conference, Seattle, USA, July 2018, (IIFET 2018 International Institute of Fisheries Economics and Trade, https://www.xcdsystem.com/iifet/website/). This Special Open Session was directly arranged by the ManDaLiS and MSPTOOLS projects with invitation of stakeholders and including stakeholder perspectives. Besides initiative taking, planning, arranging, organizing, coordinating, announcing, leading and carrying through this special session directly under the MSPTOOLS and ManDaLiS Projects the projects produced the session abstract and a full scientific publication reporting of the outcomes of the session (Nielsen et al., 2018). In accordance with several of the stakeholder perspectives from the above workshops and the IIFET session future perspectives and needs raised by the stakeholders during the ManDaLiS and MSPTOOLS workshops included suggestions for continuation of the implementation of the data poor stock assessments and model developments on additional candidate stocks with importance for Danish fishery.

The aim of this project is to map Essential Fish Habitats (EFH) for ten of the commercially most important species in the inner Danish waters. New data were collected to supplement existing data to better describe seasonal differences in distribution. The spatial overlap between habitats of the different life stages is evaluated as well as the degree of overlap between EFH and existing management areas such as Natura 2000 areas and fishery management areas. The EFH maps will be incorporated into Maritime Spatial Planning to ensure that fish species can complete their life-cycle and thus preserve, improve or restore important habitats, essential for the development of a species. The species studied are: Atlantic cod Gadus morhua, European plaice Pleuronectes platessa, common sole Solea solea, turbot Scophthalmus maximus/Psetta maxima, European flounder Platichthys flesus, Atlantic herring Clupea harengus, European sprat Sprattus sprattus, European eel Anguilla anguilla, lumpfish Cyclopterus lumpus and Norway lobster Nephrops norvegicus.Apart from using existing time-series data from national and international fishing surveys, new data were collected. An additional Kattegat Survey (KASU) survey was conducted during summer 2016 (Q3) using the same methods and visiting the same stations that KASU surveys conduct in Q1 and Q4 every year. Summer feeding grounds were identified with the new data. These summer feeding grounds were significantly different to overwintering (Q1 and Q4) areas or spawning areas (Q1). This was true for cod, plaice, flounder and sprat. The EFH maps showed the degree of overlap between juvenile and adult habitats for those species where distinction could be made between adult and juvenile fish (cod, plaice, sole, flounder and herring). Spawning grounds were identified for cod, plaice and flounder that spawn in the winter season (Q1) but could not be identified for sole and turbot that spawn in May/June (Q2) due to lack of seasonal overlap between spawning season and timing of survey. The surveys do not cover coastal areas and thus coastal habitats could not be mapped. This was the case for example for herring that spawns in shallow coastal areas.New data was also collated through a juvenile fish survey that sampled 146 stations in the inner Danish waters. Habitat quality maps were developed using fish abundance data and growth data obtained from otoliths for Young-of-the-Year (YOY) of three flatfish species, plaice, flounder and sole. This work is reported in a separate paper intended for peer-review (Brown et al. 2019). This survey covered the coastal areas in the inner Danish waters and excluded fjord systems, which can be essential growth or spawning areas for several species.Interviews with fishermen provided information on presence for the 10 species. Since particular information on spawning or juvenile areas for individual species was too sparse to produce separate maps, composite maps were produced on fish presence per species as provided by the fishermen.EFH maps were produced for the focus species from existing data and the newly obtained data from the surveys in this project. The data was used to develop statistical models on the relationship between fish abundance and environmental variables such as temperature, salinity, depth and sediment type. The best fitting model was then used to predict potential fish habitats within the whole study area. The yearly survey data were used to map the general fish distributions over the years during different seasons and different life-stages (adult, spawning, juvenile). Maps for juvenile and adult cod, plaice, sole, flounder and herring were developed. Also maps for turbot and sprat are shown. Error maps were developed to provide information on the “uncertainty” of the estimations. For the remaining species data was insufficient to produce maps. For some species presence maps only were available from the fishermen interview data.As seasonal maps were produced, it was possible to identify spawning areas, feeding grounds or overwintering grounds for the different species. Spawning areas can only be identified when spawning time and survey timing coincide. Peer-reviewed literature field studies were used to validate the interpretation of the predictive maps. Maps produced from the fishermen interviews (Støttrup et al. 2019) were also used to validate interpretation. A workshop dedicated to cod allowed for the discussion of the cod maps and exchange of relevant information. several subsequent short meetings were held with colleagues who had specific expertise on some of the species.The aggregated maps of the individual species distributions highlighted hot-spot areas for multiple commercially important fish species. Not surprisingly, a poor overlap was found between the aggregated maps and a map of the Danish marine Natura2000 sites, since the latter are generally designated for other purposes than fish protection. The overlap with the fisheries management area just north of the Sound, “kilen”, coincides with the spawning area for cod and provides some protection for other species, but does not capture the important multiple fish habitats captured in this study.