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Background: Recently, a high number of daily positive COVID-19 cases have been reported in regions with relatively high vaccination rates; hence, booster vaccination has become necessary. In addition, infections caused by the different variants and correlated factors have not been discussed in depth. With large variabilities and different co-factors, it is difficult to use conventional mathematical models to forecast the incidence of COVID-19. Methods: Machine learning based on long short-term memory was applied to forecasting the time series of new daily positive cases (DPC), serious cases, hospitalized cases, and deaths. Data acquired from regions with high rates of vaccination, such as Israel, were blended with the current data of other regions in Japan to factor in the potential effects of vaccination. The protection provided by symptomatic infection was also considered in terms of the population effectiveness of vaccination as well as the waning protection and ratio and infectivity of viral variants. To represent changes in public behavior, public mobility and interactions through social media were also included in the analysis. Findings: Comparing the observed and estimated new DPC in Tel Aviv, Israel, the parameters characterizing vaccination effectiveness and the waning protection from infection were well estimated; the vaccination effectiveness of the second dose after 5 months and the third dose after two weeks from infection by the delta variant were 0.24 and 0.95, respectively. Using the extracted parameters regarding vaccination effectiveness, new cases in three prefectures of Japan were replicated.

During epidemics, estimation of the effective reproduction number (ERN) associated with infectious disease is a challenging topic for policy development and medical resource management. There is still an open question about the dominant factors to characterize in corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), although recent studies based on nonlinear regression with machine learning suggested mobility. The emergence of new viral variants is common in widespread pandemics. However, understanding the potential ERN of new variants is required for policy revision, including lockdown constraints. In this study, we proposed time-averaged mobility at transit stations as a surrogate to correlate with ERN using data from three prefectures in Japan. The latency and duration to average over the mobility were 6-8 days and 6-7, respectively (R2 was 0.109-0.512 in Tokyo, 0.365-0.607 in Osaka, and 0.317-0.631 in Aichi). The same linear correlation was confirmed in Singapore and London. The mobility-adjusted ERN of the alpha variant was 15%-30%, and was 20%-40% higher than the standard type in Osaka, Aichi, and London. Similarly, the ERN of the delta variant was 20%-40% higher than that of the standard type in Osaka and Aichi. The proposed metric would be useful for proper evaluation of the infectivity of different variants in terms of ERN., Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables

Accurate forecasting of medical service requirements is an important big data problem that is crucial for resource management in critical times such as natural disasters and pandemics. With the global spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), several concerns have been raised regarding the ability of medical systems to handle sudden changes in the daily routines of healthcare providers. One significant problem is the management of ambulance dispatch and control during a pandemic. To help address this problem, we first analyze ambulance dispatch data records from April 2014 to August 2020 for Nagoya City, Japan. Significant changes were observed in the data during the pandemic, including the state of emergency (SoE) declared across Japan. In this study, we propose a deep learning framework based on recurrent neural networks to estimate the number of emergency ambulance dispatches (EADs) during a SoE. The fusion of data includes environmental factors, the localization data of mobile phone users, and the past history of EADs, thereby providing a general framework for knowledge discovery and better resource management. The results indicate that the proposed blend of training data can be used efficiently in a real-world estimation of EAD requirements during periods of high uncertainties such as pandemics., Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures, 2 tables

International guidelines/standards for human protection from electromagnetic fields have been revised recently, especially for frequencies above 6 GHz where new wireless communication systems have been deployed. Above this frequency a new physical quantity "absorbed/epithelia power density" has been adopted as a dose metric. Then, the permissible level of external field strength/power density is derived for practical assessment. In addition, a new physical quantity, fluence or absorbed energy density, is introduced for protection from brief pulses (especially for shorter than 10 sec). These limits were explicitly designed to avoid excessive increases in tissue temperature, based on electromagnetic and thermal modeling studies but supported by experimental data where available. This paper reviews the studies on the computational modeling/dosimetry which are related to the revision of the guidelines/standards. The comparisons with experimental data as well as an analytic solution are also been presented. Future research needs and additional comments on the revision will also be mentioned., Comment: 38 pages, 3 figures

Recent epidemiological studies have hypothesized that the prevalence of cortical cataracts is closely related to ultraviolet radiation. However, the prevalence of nuclear cataracts is higher in elderly people in tropical areas than in temperate areas. The dominant factors inducing nuclear cataracts have been widely debated. In this study, the temperature increase in the lens due to exposure to ambient conditions was computationally quantified in subjects of 50-60 years of age in tropical and temperate areas, accounting for differences in thermoregulation. A thermoregulatory response model was extended to consider elderly people in tropical areas. The time course of lens temperature for different weather conditions in five cities in Asia was computed. The temperature was higher around the mid and posterior part of the lens, which coincides with the position of the nuclear cataract. The duration of higher temperatures in the lens varied, although the daily maximum temperatures were comparable. A strong correlation (adjusted R2 > 0.85) was observed between the prevalence of nuclear cataract and the computed cumulative thermal dose in the lens. We propose the use of a cumulative thermal dose to assess the prevalence of nuclear cataracts. Cumulative wet-bulb globe temperature, a new metric computed from weather data, would be useful for practical assessment in different cities., Comment: Submitted to Computers in Biology and Medicine

This study analyzed the morbidity and mortality rates of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. Under the constraint that daily maximum confirmed deaths and daily maximum cases should exceed 4 and 10, respectively, 14 prefectures were included, and cofactors affecting the morbidity and mortality rates were evaluated. In particular, the number of confirmed deaths was assessed excluding the cases of nosocomial infections and nursing home patients. A mild correlation was observed between morbidity rate and population density (R2=0.394). In addition, the percentage of the elderly per population was also found to be non-negligible. Among weather parameters, the maximum temperature and absolute humidity averaged over the duration were found to be in modest correlation with the morbidity and mortality rates, excluding the cases of nosocomial infections. The lower morbidity and mortality are observed for higher temperature and absolute humidity. Multivariate analysis considering these factors showed that determination coefficients for the spread, decay, and combined stages were 0.708, 0.785, and 0.615, respectively. These findings could be useful for intervention planning during future pandemics, including a potential second COVID-19 outbreak., Comment: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2020

This study analyzed the spread and decay durations of the COVID-19 pandemic in different prefectures of Japan. During the pandemic, affordable healthcare was widely available in Japan and the medical system did not suffer a collapse, making accurate comparisons between prefectures possible. For the 16 prefectures included in this study that had daily maximum confirmed cases exceeding ten, the number of daily confirmed cases follow bell-shape or log-normal distribution in most prefectures. A good correlation was observed between the spread and decay durations. However, some exceptions were observed in areas where travelers returned from foreign countries, which were defined as the origins of infection clusters. Excluding these prefectures, the population density was shown to be a major factor affecting the spread and decay patterns, with R2=0.39 (p<0.05) and 0.42 (p<0.05), respectively, approximately corresponding to social distancing. The maximum absolute humidity was found to affect the decay duration normalized by the population density (R2>0.36, p <0.05). Our findings indicate that the estimated pandemic spread duration, based on the multivariate analysis of maximum absolute humidity, ambient temperature, and population density (adjusted R2=0.53, p-value<0.05), could prove useful for intervention planning during potential future pandemics, including a second COVID-19 outbreak., Comment: Submitted to: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health