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Water is a limited resource in Arctic watersheds with continuous permafrost because freezing conditions in winter and the impermeability of permafrost limit storage and connectivity between surface water and deep groundwater. However, groundwater can still be an important source of surface water in such settings, feeding springs and large aufeis fields that are abundant in cold regions and generating runoff when precipitation is rare. Whether groundwater is sourced from suprapermafrost taliks or deeper regional aquifers will impact water availability as the Arctic continues to warm and thaw. Previous research is ambiguous about the role of deep groundwater, leading to uncertainty regarding Arctic water availability and changing water resources. We analyzed chemistry and residence times of spring, stream, and river waters in the continuous permafrost zone of Alaska, spanning the mountains to the coastal plain. Water chemistry and age tracers show that surface waters are predominately sourced from recent precipitation and have short (<50 y) subsurface residence times. Remote sensing indicates trends in the areal extent of aufeis over the last 37 y, and correlations between aufeis extent and previous year summer temperature. Together, these data indicate that surface waters in continuous permafrost regions may be impacted by short flow paths and shallow suprapermafrost aquifers that are highly sensitive to climatic and hydrologic change over annual timescales. Despite the lack of connection to regional aquifers, continued warming and permafrost thaw may promote deepening of the shallow subsurface aquifers and creation of shallow taliks, providing some resilience to Arctic freshwater ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water quality and freshwater ecosystems are affected by river discharge and temperature. Models are frequently used to estimate river temperature on large spatial and temporal scales due to limited observations of discharge and temperature. In this study, we use physically based river routing and temperature models to simulate daily discharge and river temperature for rivers in 138 basins in Alaska, including the entire Yukon River basin, from 1990–2021. The river temperature model was optimized for ice free months using a surrogate‐based model optimization method, improving model performance at uncalibrated river gages. A common statistical model relating local air and water temperature was used as a benchmark. The physically based river temperature model exhibited superior performance compared to the benchmark statistical model after optimization, suggesting river temperature model optimization could become more routine. The river temperature model demonstrated high sensitivity to air temperature and model parameterization, and lower sensitivity to discharge. Validation of the models showed a Kling‐Gupta Efficiency of 0.46 for daily river discharge and a root mean square error of 2.04°C for daily river temperature, improving on the non‐optimized physical model and the benchmark statistical model, which had root mean square errors of 3.24 and 2.97°C, respectively. The simulation shows that rivers in northern Alaska have higher maximum summer temperatures and more variability than rivers in the Central and Southern regions. Furthermore, this framework can be readily adapted for use across models and regions. Plain Language Summary: Accurate data on the volume and temperature of river water are essential for understanding how changing river conditions affect water quality and freshwater ecosystems. However, direct measurements of river parameters are often lacking, leading researchers to rely on models for estimation. In this study, we utilized advanced models and techniques to compute daily water volume and temperature in 138 basins across Alaska, including the entirety of the Yukon River basin, spanning from 1990 to 2021. Our findings indicated that rivers in northern Alaska exhibited higher maximum summer water temperatures and more significant temperature fluctuations compared to those in the central and southern regions. Our analysis highlighted that adjusting air temperature and the model's internal variables were crucial in minimizing errors in river temperature prediction. We improved the accuracy of the river temperature model by applying a technique to refine the model output based on the limited available river measurements. Comparing our enhanced model to a simpler statistical approach, we observed superior performance once the necessary adjustments were implemented. Key Points: Our model system produced an accurate, high‐resolution, daily hindcast of Alaskan river temperature and discharge from 1990 to 2021We increased model performance by employing a new optimization of the River Basin Model and forcing it with a climate‐land surface modelA sensitivity analysis highlights important drivers of river temperatures in each region and the need for optimization [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Repeated sampling of spatially distributed river chemistry can be used to assess the location, scale, and stability of carbon and nutrient contributions to watershed-scale exports. Here, we provide a comprehensive set of water chemistry measurements and secondary ecosystem metrics describing the biogeochemical conditions of permafrost-affected Arctic watershed networks. These data were collected in watershed-wide repeated synoptic campaigns across six rivers across northern Alaska. Three watersheds are associated with the Arctic Long-Term Ecological Research (ARC LTER) site at Toolik Field Station (TFS), which were sampled seasonally each June and August from 2016 to 2018. Three watersheds were associated with the National Park Service (NPS) of Alaska and the US. Geological Survey (USGS), and were sampled annually from 2015 to 2019. Extensive water chemistry characterization included carbon species, dissolved nutrients, and anions and cations. The objective of the sampling designs and data acquisition was to generate a dataset to support the estimation of ecosystem metrics that describe the dominant location, scale, and overall stability of ecosystem processes in the Arctic. These metrics are: (1) subcatchment leverage, (2) variance collapse, and (3) spatial stability. Both water chemistry concentrations and secondary metrics are available at the National Park Service Integrated Resource Management Application portal (https://doi.org/10.5066/P9SBK2DZ) and within the Environmental Data Initiative LTER Data Portal (https://doi.org/10.6073/pasta/258a44fb9055163dd4dd4371b9dce945). Plaintext Summary. Sampling various points in an entire river network over a short period of time (~a few hours) provides a synoptic "snapshot" in time of the water chemistry in a watershed. Here, we describe two unique datasets which captured river chemistry snapshots in six permafrost-impacted watersheds in northern Alaska. We present how these repeated snapshots can be used to inform predictions for carbon, nutrient, and other solutes in landscapes that are rapidly changing as a direct result of climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Permafrost thaw in the Arctic is mobilizing old carbon (C) from soils to aquatic ecosystems and the atmosphere. Little is known, however, about the assimilation of old C by aquatic food webs in Arctic watersheds. Here, we used C isotopes (δ13C, Δ14C) to quantify C assimilation by biota across 12 streams in arctic Alaska. Streams spanned watersheds with varying permafrost hydrology, from ice-poor bedrock to ice-rich loess (that is, yedoma). We measured isotopic content of (1) C sources including dissolved organic C (DOC), dissolved inorganic C (DIC), and soil C, and (2) stream biota, including benthic biofilm and macroinvertebrates, and resident fish species (Arctic Grayling (Thymallus arcticus) and Dolly Varden (Salvelinus malma)). Findings document the assimilation of old C by stream biota, with depleted Δ14C values observed at multiple trophic levels, including benthic biofilm (14C ages = 5255 to 265 years before present (y BP)), macroinvertebrates (4490 y BP to modern), and fish (3195 y BP to modern). Mixing model results indicate that DOC and DIC contribute to benthic biofilm composition, with relative contributions differing across streams draining ice-poor and ice-rich terrain. DOC originates primarily from old terrestrial C sources, including deep peat horizons (39–47%; 530 y BP) and near-surface permafrost (12–19%; 5490 y BP). DOC also accounts for approximately half of fish isotopic composition. Analyses suggest that as the contribution of old C to fish increases, fish growth and nutritional status decline. We anticipate increases in old DOC delivery to streams under projected warming, which may further alter food web function in Arctic watersheds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change coupled with an intensifying wildfire regime is becoming an important driver of permafrost loss and ecosystem change in the northern boreal forest. There is a growing need to understand the effects of fire on the spatial distribution of permafrost and its associated ecological consequences. We focus on the effects of fire a decade after disturbance in a rocky upland landscape in the interior Alaskan boreal forest. Our main objectives were to (1) map near-surface permafrost distribution and drainage classes and (2) analyze the controls over landscape-scale patterns of post-fire permafrost degradation. Relationships among remote sensing variables and field-based data on soil properties (temperature, moisture, organic layer thickness) and vegetation (plant community composition) were analyzed using correlation, regression, and ordination analyses. The remote sensing data we considered included spectral indices from optical datasets (Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI)), the principal components of a time series of radar backscatter (Advanced Land Observing Satellite-Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (ALOS-PALSAR)), and topographic variables from a Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR)-derived digital elevation model (DEM). We found strong empirical relationships between the normalized difference infrared index (NDII) and post-fire vegetation, soil moisture, and soil temperature, enabling us to indirectly map permafrost status and drainage class using regression-based models. The thickness of the insulating surface organic layer after fire, a measure of burn severity, was an important control over the extent of permafrost degradation. According to our classifications, 90% of the area considered to have experienced high severity burn (using the difference normalized burn ratio (dNBR)) lacked permafrost after fire. Permafrost thaw, in turn, likely increased drainage and resulted in drier surface soils. Burn severity also influenced plant community composition, which was tightly linked to soil temperature and moisture. Overall, interactions between burn severity, topography, and vegetation appear to control the distribution of near-surface permafrost and associated drainage conditions after disturbance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While continuous monitoring of streamflow and temperature has been common for some time, there is great potential to expand continuous monitoring to include water quality parameters such as nutrients, turbidity, oxygen, and dissolved organic material. In many systems, distinguishing between watershed and stream ecosystem controls can be challenging. The usefulness of such monitoring can be enhanced by the application of quantitative models to interpret observed patterns in real time. Examples are discussed primarily from the glacial meltwater streams of the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica. Although the Dry Valley landscape is barren of plants, many streams harbor thriving cyanobacterial mats. Whereas a daily cycle of streamflow is controlled by the surface energy balance on the glaciers and the temporal pattern of solar exposure, the daily signal for biogeochemical processes controlling water quality is generated along the stream. These features result in an excellent outdoor laboratory for investigating fundamental ecosystem process and the development and validation of process-based models. As part of the McMurdo Dry Valleys Long-Term Ecological Research project, we have conducted field experiments and developed coupled biogeochemical transport models for the role of hyporheic exchange in controlling weathering reactions, microbial nitrogen cycling, and stream temperature regulation. We have adapted modeling approaches from sediment transport to understand mobilization of stream biomass with increasing flows. These models help to elucidate the role of in-stream processes in systems where watershed processes also contribute to observed patterns, and may serve as a test case for applying real-time stream ecosystem models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Losses in lake area have been observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions in recent decades, with unknown consequences for lake ecosystems. These reductions are primarily attributed to two climate-sensitive mechanisms, both of which may also cause changes in water chemistry: (i) increased imbalance of evaporation relative to inflow, whereby increased evaporation and decreased inflow act to concentrate solutes into smaller volumes; and (ii) accelerated permafrost degradation, which enhances sublacustrine drainage while simultaneously leaching previously frozen solutes into lakes. We documented changes in nutrients [total nitrogen ( TN), total phosphorus ( TP)] and ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium) over a 25 year interval in shrinking, stable, and expanding Subarctic lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Concentrations of all six solutes increased in shrinking lakes from 1985-1989 to 2010-2012, while simultaneously undergoing little change in stable or expanding lakes. This created a present-day pattern, much weaker or absent in the 1980s, in which shrinking lakes had higher solute concentrations than their stable or expanding counterparts. An imbalanced evaporation-to-inflow ratio (E/I) was the most likely mechanism behind such changes; all four ions, which behave semiconservatively and are prone to evapoconcentration, increased in shrinking lakes and, along with TN and TP, were positively related to isotopically derived E/I estimates. Moreover, the most conservative ion, chloride, increased >500% in shrinking lakes. Conversely, only TP concentration was related to probability of permafrost presence, being highest at intermediate probabilities. Overall, the substantial increases of nutrients ( TN >200%, TP >100%) and ions (>100%) may shift shrinking lakes towards overly eutrophic or saline states, with potentially severe consequences for ecosystems of northern lakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]