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Current clustering priors for deep latent variable models (DLVMs) require defining the number of clusters a-priori and are susceptible to poor initializations. Addressing these deficiencies could greatly benefit deep learning-based scRNA-seq analysis by performing integration and clustering simultaneously. We adapt the VampPrior (Tomczak & Welling, 2018) into a Dirichlet process Gaussian mixture model, resulting in the VampPrior Mixture Model (VMM), a novel prior for DLVMs. We propose an inference procedure that alternates between variational inference and Empirical Bayes to cleanly distinguish variational and prior parameters. Using the VMM in a Variational Autoencoder attains highly competitive clustering performance on benchmark datasets. Augmenting scVI (Lopez et al., 2018), a popular scRNA-seq integration method, with the VMM significantly improves its performance and automatically arranges cells into biologically meaningful clusters.

Crystal plasticity models are a powerful tool for predicting the deformation behaviour of polycrystalline materials accounting for the underlying grain morphology and texture. These models typically have a large number of parameters, an understanding of which is required to effectively calibrate and apply the model. This study presents a structured framework for the global sensitivity analysis, using Sobol indices, of the effect of crystal plasticity parameters on model outputs. Due to the computational cost of evaluating the crystal plasticity model multiple times within a finite element framework, a Gaussian process regression surrogate model was constructed and used to conduct the sensitivity analysis. Influential parameters from the sensitivity analysis were carried forward for calibration using both a local Nelder-Mead and global differential evolution optimisation algorithm. The results show that the surrogate based global sensitivity analysis is able to efficiently identify influential crystal plasticity parameters and parameter combinations. With a reduced parameter set, both the Nelder-Mead algorithm with multiple runs and the differential evolution algorithm were able to find an optimal parameter set which gives a close calibration of a simulated tensile curve to experimental data. However, only the differential evolutionary algorithm was able to reliably find the global optimum due to the presence of local minima in the calibration objective function.

The problem of system identification for the Kalman filter, relying on the expectation-maximization (EM) procedure to learn the underlying parameters of a dynamical system, has largely been studied assuming that observations are sampled at equally-spaced time points. However, in many applications this is a restrictive and unrealistic assumption. This paper addresses system identification for the continuous-discrete filter, with the aim of generalizing learning for the Kalman filter by relying on a solution to a continuous-time It\^o stochastic differential equation (SDE) for the latent state and covariance dynamics. We introduce a novel two-filter, analytical form for the posterior with a Bayesian derivation, which yields analytical updates which do not require the forward-pass to be pre-computed. Using this analytical and efficient computation of the posterior, we provide an EM procedure which estimates the parameters of the SDE, naturally incorporating irregularly sampled measurements. Generalizing the learning of latent linear dynamical systems (LDS) to continuous-time may extend the use of the hybrid Kalman filter to data which is not regularly sampled or has intermittent missing values, and can extend the power of non-linear system identification methods such as switching LDS (SLDS), which rely on EM for the linear discrete-time Kalman filter as a sub-unit for learning locally linearized behavior of a non-linear system. We apply the method by learning the parameters of a latent, multivariate Fokker-Planck SDE representing a toggle-switch genetic circuit using biologically realistic parameters, and compare the efficacy of learning relative to the discrete-time Kalman filter as the step-size irregularity and spectral-radius of the dynamics-matrix increases., Comment: 31 pages, 3 figures. Only light changes and restructuring to previous version made

This paper demonstrates the utility of organized numerical representations of genes in research involving flat string gene formats (i.e., FASTA/FASTQ5). FASTA/FASTQ files have several current limitations, such as their large file sizes, slow processing speeds for mapping and alignment, and contextual dependencies. These challenges significantly hinder investigations and tasks that involve finding similar sequences. The solution lies in transforming sequences into an alternative representation that facilitates easier clustering into similar groups compared to the raw sequences themselves. By assigning a unique vector embedding to each short sequence, it is possible to more efficiently cluster and improve upon compression performance for the string representations of cDNA libraries. Furthermore, through learning alternative coordinate vector embeddings based on the contexts of codon triplets, we can demonstrate clustering based on amino acid properties. Finally, using this sequence embedding method to encode barcodes and cDNA sequences, we can improve the time complexity of the similarity search by coupling vector embeddings with an algorithm that determines the proximity of vectors in Euclidean space; this allows us to perform sequence similarity searches in a quicker and more modular fashion., Comment: 15 pages, 8 figures

Heteroscedastic regression models a Gaussian variable's mean and variance as a function of covariates. Parametric methods that employ neural networks for these parameter maps can capture complex relationships in the data. Yet, optimizing network parameters via log likelihood gradients can yield suboptimal mean and uncalibrated variance estimates. Current solutions side-step this optimization problem with surrogate objectives or Bayesian treatments. Instead, we make two simple modifications to optimization. Notably, their combination produces a heteroscedastic model with mean estimates that are provably as accurate as those from its homoscedastic counterpart (i.e.~fitting the mean under squared error loss). For a wide variety of network and task complexities, we find that mean estimates from existing heteroscedastic solutions can be significantly less accurate than those from an equivalently expressive mean-only model. Our approach provably retains the accuracy of an equally flexible mean-only model while also offering best-in-class variance calibration. Lastly, we show how to leverage our method to recover the underlying heteroscedastic noise variance.

Deep learning models such as Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have demonstrated high levels of effectiveness in a variety of domains, including computer vision and more recently, computational biology. However, training effective models often requires assembling and/or labeling large datasets, which may be prohibitively time-consuming or costly. Pool-based active learning techniques have the potential to mitigate these issues, leveraging models trained on limited data to selectively query unlabeled data points from a pool in an attempt to expedite the learning process. Here we present "Dropout-based Expected IMprOvementS" (DEIMOS), a flexible and computationally-efficient approach to active learning that queries points that are expected to maximize the model's improvement across a representative sample of points. The proposed framework enables us to maintain a prediction covariance matrix capturing model uncertainty, and to dynamically update this matrix in order to generate diverse batches of points in the batch-mode setting. Our active learning results demonstrate that DEIMOS outperforms several existing baselines across multiple regression and classification tasks taken from computer vision and genomics.

Brittle optimization has been observed to adversely impact model likelihoods for regression and VAEs when simultaneously fitting neural network mappings from a (random) variable onto the mean and variance of a dependent Gaussian variable. Previous works have bolstered optimization and improved likelihoods, but fail other basic posterior predictive checks (PPCs). Under the PPC framework, we propose critiques to test predictive mean and variance calibration and the predictive distribution's ability to generate sensible data. We find that our attractively simple solution, to treat heteroscedastic variance variationally, sufficiently regularizes variance to pass these PPCs. We consider a diverse gamut of existing and novel priors and find our methods preserve or outperform existing model likelihoods while significantly improving parameter calibration and sample quality for regression and VAEs., Comment: 17 pages, 6 figures, 10 tables

We construct a new distribution for the simplex using the Kumaraswamy distribution and an ordered stick-breaking process. We explore and develop the theoretical properties of this new distribution and prove that it exhibits symmetry under the same conditions as the well-known Dirichlet. Like the Dirichlet, the new distribution is adept at capturing sparsity but, unlike the Dirichlet, has an exact and closed form reparameterization--making it well suited for deep variational Bayesian modeling. We demonstrate the distribution's utility in a variety of semi-supervised auto-encoding tasks. In all cases, the resulting models achieve competitive performance commensurate with their simplicity, use of explicit probability models, and abstinence from adversarial training., Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, 1 tables

While stochastic variational inference is relatively well known for scaling inference in Bayesian probabilistic models, related methods also offer ways to circumnavigate the approximation of analytically intractable expectations. The key challenge in either setting is controlling the variance of gradient estimates: recent work has shown that for continuous latent variables, particularly multivariate Gaussians, this can be achieved by using the gradient of the log posterior. In this paper we apply the same idea to gamma distributed latent variables given gamma variational distributions, enabling straightforward "black box" variational inference in models where sparsity and non-negativity are appropriate. We demonstrate the method on a recently proposed gamma process model for network data, as well as a novel sparse factor analysis. We outperform generic sampling algorithms and the approach of using Gaussian variational distributions on transformed variables.

Stochastic variational inference (SVI) is emerging as the most promising candidate for scaling inference in Bayesian probabilistic models to large datasets. However, the performance of these methods has been assessed primarily in the context of Bayesian topic models, particularly latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA). Deriving several new algorithms, and using synthetic, image and genomic datasets, we investigate whether the understanding gleaned from LDA applies in the setting of sparse latent factor models, specifically beta process factor analysis (BPFA). We demonstrate that the big picture is consistent: using Gibbs sampling within SVI to maintain certain posterior dependencies is extremely effective. However, we find that different posterior dependencies are important in BPFA relative to LDA. Particularly, approximations able to model intra-local variable dependence perform best., Comment: ICML, 12 pages. Volume 37: Proceedings of The 32nd International Conference on Machine Learning, 2015

We define the beta diffusion tree, a random tree structure with a set of leaves that defines a collection of overlapping subsets of objects, known as a feature allocation. A generative process for the tree structure is defined in terms of particles (representing the objects) diffusing in some continuous space, analogously to the Dirichlet diffusion tree (Neal, 2003), which defines a tree structure over partitions (i.e., non-overlapping subsets) of the objects. Unlike in the Dirichlet diffusion tree, multiple copies of a particle may exist and diffuse along multiple branches in the beta diffusion tree, and an object may therefore belong to multiple subsets of particles. We demonstrate how to build a hierarchically-clustered factor analysis model with the beta diffusion tree and how to perform inference over the random tree structures with a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. We conclude with several numerical experiments on missing data problems with data sets of gene expression microarrays, international development statistics, and intranational socioeconomic measurements., Comment: 43 pages, 13 figures. Major revision to the proof of Thm. 2. Large portions of Chs. 2 & 4 moved into the appendix. Added Fig. 4. Revisions throughout

We present a nonparametric prior over reversible Markov chains. We use completely random measures, specifically gamma processes, to construct a countably infinite graph with weighted edges. By enforcing symmetry to make the edges undirected we define a prior over random walks on graphs that results in a reversible Markov chain. The resulting prior over infinite transition matrices is closely related to the hierarchical Dirichlet process but enforces reversibility. A reinforcement scheme has recently been proposed with similar properties, but the de Finetti measure is not well characterised. We take the alternative approach of explicitly constructing the mixing measure, which allows more straightforward and efficient inference at the cost of no longer having a closed form predictive distribution. We use our process to construct a reversible infinite HMM which we apply to two real datasets, one from epigenomics and one ion channel recording., Comment: 9 pages, 6 figures

Recently, we and several other authors have written about the possibilities of using stochastic approximation techniques for fitting variational approximations to intractable Bayesian posterior distributions. Naive implementations of stochastic approximation suffer from high variance in this setting. Several authors have therefore suggested using control variates to reduce this variance, while we have taken a different but analogous approach to reducing the variance which we call stochastic linear regression. In this note we take the former perspective and derive the ideal set of control variates for stochastic approximation variational Bayes under a certain set of assumptions. We then show that using these control variates is closely related to using the stochastic linear regression approximation technique we proposed earlier. A simple example shows that our method for constructing control variates leads to stochastic estimators with much lower variance compared to other approaches.

We propose a probabilistic model to infer supervised latent variables in the Hamming space from observed data. Our model allows simultaneous inference of the number of binary latent variables, and their values. The latent variables preserve neighbourhood structure of the data in a sense that objects in the same semantic concept have similar latent values, and objects in different concepts have dissimilar latent values. We formulate the supervised infinite latent variable problem based on an intuitive principle of pulling objects together if they are of the same type, and pushing them apart if they are not. We then combine this principle with a flexible Indian Buffet Process prior on the latent variables. We show that the inferred supervised latent variables can be directly used to perform a nearest neighbour search for the purpose of retrieval. We introduce a new application of dynamically extending hash codes, and show how to effectively couple the structure of the hash codes with continuously growing structure of the neighbourhood preserving infinite latent feature space., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the Twenty-Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI2013)

The fundamental aim of clustering algorithms is to partition data points. We consider tasks where the discovered partition is allowed to vary with some covariate such as space or time. One approach would be to use fragmentation-coagulation processes, but these, being Markov processes, are restricted to linear or tree structured covariate spaces. We define a partition-valued process on an arbitrary covariate space using Gaussian processes. We use the process to construct a multitask clustering model which partitions datapoints in a similar way across multiple data sources, and a time series model of network data which allows cluster assignments to vary over time. We describe sampling algorithms for inference and apply our method to defining cancer subtypes based on different types of cellular characteristics, finding regulatory modules from gene expression data from multiple human populations, and discovering time varying community structure in a social network., Comment: 9 pages, 7 figures, submitted for review

We propose a general algorithm for approximating nonstandard Bayesian posterior distributions. The algorithm minimizes the Kullback-Leibler divergence of an approximating distribution to the intractable posterior distribution. Our method can be used to approximate any posterior distribution, provided that it is given in closed form up to the proportionality constant. The approximation can be any distribution in the exponential family or any mixture of such distributions, which means that it can be made arbitrarily precise. Several examples illustrate the speed and accuracy of our approximation method in practice.

Latent variable models for network data extract a summary of the relational structure underlying an observed network. The simplest possible models subdivide nodes of the network into clusters; the probability of a link between any two nodes then depends only on their cluster assignment. Currently available models can be classified by whether clusters are disjoint or are allowed to overlap. These models can explain a "flat" clustering structure. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a natural approach to capture more complex dependencies. We propose a model in which objects are characterised by a latent feature vector. Each feature is itself partitioned into disjoint groups (subclusters), corresponding to a second layer of hierarchy. In experimental comparisons, the model achieves significantly improved predictive performance on social and biological link prediction tasks. The results indicate that models with a single layer hierarchy over-simplify real networks., Comment: Appears in Proceedings of the 29th International Conference on Machine Learning (ICML 2012)