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The Miocene (23.03-5.33 Ma) is recognized as a period with close to modern-day paleogeography, yet a much warmer climate. With large uncertainties in future hydroclimate projections, Miocene conditions illustrate a potential future analog for the Earth system. A recent opportunistic Miocene Model Intercomparison Project 1 (MioMIP1) focused on synthesizing published Miocene climate simulations and comparing them with available temperature reconstructions. Here, we build on this effort by analyzing the hydrological cycle response to Miocene forcings across early-to-middle (E2MMIO; 20.03-11.6 Ma) and middle-to-late Miocene (M2LMIO; 11.5-5.33 Ma) simulations with CO2 concentrations ranging from 200 to 850 ppm and providing a model-data comparison against available precipitation reconstructions. We find global precipitation increases by similar to 2.1 and 2.3% per degree of warming for E2MMIO and M2LMIO simulations, respectively. Models generally agree on a wetter than modern-day tropics; mid and high-latitude, however, do not agree on the sign of subtropical precipitation changes with warming. Global monsoon analysis suggests most monsoon regions, except the North American Monsoon, experience higher precipitation rates under warmer conditions. Model-data comparison shows that mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models regardless of CO2 concentration, particularly in the mid- to high-latitudes. This suggests that the models may not be (a) resolving key processes driving the hydrological cycle response to Miocene boundary conditions and/or (b) other boundary conditions or processes not considered here are critical to reproducing Miocene hydroclimate. This study highlights the challenges in modeling and reconstructing the Miocene hydrological cycle and serves as a baseline for future coordinated MioMIP efforts. This study looks at Earth's hydrological cycle during the Miocene (23-5 million years ago). During this period, the Earth's climate was 3-7 degrees C

Estimates of global mean near-surface air temperature (global SAT) for the Cenozoic era rely largely on paleo-proxy data of deep-sea temperature (DST), with the assumption that changes in global SAT covary with changes in the global mean deep-sea temperature (global DST) and global mean sea-surface temperature (global SST). We tested the validity of this assumption by analyzing the relationship between global SST, SAT, and DST using 25 different model simulations from the Deep-Time Model Intercomparison Project simulating the early Eocene Climatic Optimum (EECO) with varying CO2 levels. Similar to the modern situation, we find limited spatial variability in DST, indicating that local DST estimates can be regarded as a first order representative of global DST. In line with previously assumed relationships, linear regression analysis indicates that both global DST and SAT respond stronger to changes in atmospheric CO2 than global SST by a similar factor. Consequently, this model-based analysis validates the assumption that changes in global DST can be used to estimate changes in global SAT during the early Cenozoic. Paleo-proxy estimates of global DST, SST, and SAT during EECO show the best fit with model simulations with a 1,680 ppm atmospheric CO2 level. This matches paleo-proxies of EECO atmospheric CO2, indicating a good fit between models and proxy-data.

This study addresses the evolution of global tidal dynamics since the Last Glacial Maximum focusing on the extraction of tidal levels that are vital for the interpretation of geologic sea-level markers. For this purpose, we employ a truly-global barotropic ocean tide model which considers the non-local effect of Self-Attraction and Loading. A comparison to a global tide gauge data set for modern conditions yields agreement levels of 65%–70%. As the chosen model is data-unconstrained, and the considered dissipation mechanisms are well understood, it does not have to be re-tuned for altered paleoceanographic conditions. In agreement with prior studies, we find that changes in bathymetry during glaciation and deglaciation do exert critical control over the modeling results with minor impact by ocean stratification and sea ice friction. Simulations of 4 major partial tides are repeated in time steps of 0.5–1 ka and augmented by 4 additional partial tides estimated via linear admittance. These are then used to derive time series from which the tidal levels are determined and provided as a global data set conforming to the HOLSEA format. The modeling results indicate a strengthened tidal resonance by M2, but also by O1, under glacial conditions, in accordance with prior studies. Especially, a number of prominent changes in local resonance conditions are identified, that impact the tidal levels up to several meters difference. Among other regions, resonant features are predicted for the North Atlantic, the South China Sea, and the Arctic Ocean. Key Points Evolution of four major partial tides from Last Glacial Maximum until present times Validation of the employed ocean tide model with present-day tide gauge data and dissipation rates Diligent derivation of global tidal levels for the interpretation of sea level indexpoints

The Miocene (23.03–5.33 Ma) is recognized as a period with close to modern-day paleogeography, yet a much warmer climate. With large uncertainties in future hydroclimate projections, Miocene conditions illustrate a potential future analog for the Earth system. A recent opportunistic Miocene Model Intercomparison Project 1 (MioMIP1) focused on synthesizing published Miocene climate simulations and comparing them with available temperature reconstructions. Here, we build on this effort by analyzing the hydrological cycle response to Miocene forcings across early-to-middle (E2MMIO; 20.03–11.6 Ma) and middle-to-late Miocene (M2LMIO; 11.5–5.33 Ma) simulations with CO2 concentrations ranging from 200 to 850 ppm and providing a model-data comparison against available precipitation reconstructions. We find global precipitation increases by ∼2.1 and 2.3% per degree of warming for E2MMIO and M2LMIO simulations, respectively. Models generally agree on a wetter than modern-day tropics; mid and high-latitude, however, do not agree on the sign of subtropical precipitation changes with warming. Global monsoon analysis suggests most monsoon regions, except the North American Monsoon, experience higher precipitation rates under warmer conditions. Model-data comparison shows that mean annual precipitation is underestimated by the models regardless of CO2 concentration, particularly in the mid- to high-latitudes. This suggests that the models may not be (a) resolving key processes driving the hydrological cycle response to Miocene boundary conditions and/or (b) other boundary conditions or processes not considered here are critical to reproducing Miocene hydroclimate. This study highlights the challenges in modeling and reconstructing the Miocene hydrological cycle and serves as a baseline for future coordinated MioMIP efforts.

The Miocene epoch, spanning 23.03–5.33 Ma, was a dynamic climate of sustained, polar amplified warmth. Miocene atmospheric CO2 concentrations are typically reconstructed between 300 and 600 ppm and were potentially higher during the Miocene Climatic Optimum (16.75–14.5 Ma). With surface temperature reconstructions pointing to substantial midlatitude and polar warmth, it is unclear what processes maintained the much weaker-than-modern equator-to-pole temperature difference. Here, we synthesize several Miocene climate modeling efforts together with available terrestrial and ocean surface temperature reconstructions. We evaluate the range of model-data agreement, highlight robust mechanisms operating across Miocene modeling efforts and regions where differences across experiments result in a large spread in warming responses. Prescribed CO2 is the primary factor controlling global warming across the ensemble. On average, elements other than CO2, such as Miocene paleogeography and ice sheets, raise global mean temperature by ∼2°C, with the spread in warming under a given CO2 concentration (due to a combination of the spread in imposed boundary conditions and climate feedback strengths) equivalent to ∼1.2 times a CO2 doubling. This study uses an ensemble of opportunity: models, boundary conditions, and reference data sets represent the state-of-art for the Miocene, but are inhomogeneous and not ideal for a formal intermodel comparison effort. Acknowledging this caveat, this study is nevertheless the first Miocene multi-model, multi-proxy comparison attempted so far. This study serves to take stock of the current progress toward simulating Miocene warmth while isolating remaining challenges that may be well served by community-led efforts to coordinate modeling and data activities within a common analytical framework.

The Miocene epoch (23.03–5.33 Ma) was a time interval of global warmth, relative to today. Continental configurations and mountain topography transitioned toward modern conditions, and many flora and fauna evolved into the same taxa that exist today. Miocene climate was dynamic: long periods of early and late glaciation bracketed a ∼2 Myr greenhouse interval—the Miocene Climatic Optimum (MCO). Floras, faunas, ice sheets, precipitation, pCO2, and ocean and atmospheric circulation mostly (but not ubiquitously) covaried with these large changes in climate. With higher temperatures and moderately higher pCO2 (∼400–600 ppm), the MCO has been suggested as a particularly appropriate analog for future climate scenarios, and for assessing the predictive accuracy of numerical climate models—the same models that are used to simulate future climate. Yet, Miocene conditions have proved difficult to reconcile with models. This implies either missing positive feedbacks in the models, a lack of knowledge of past climate forcings, or the need for re-interpretation of proxies, which might mitigate the model-data discrepancy. Our understanding of Miocene climatic, biogeochemical, and oceanic changes on broad spatial and temporal scales is still developing. New records documenting the physical, chemical, and biotic aspects of the Earth system are emerging, and together provide a more comprehensive understanding of this important time interval. Here, we review the state-of-the-art in Miocene climate, ocean circulation, biogeochemical cycling, ice sheet dynamics, and biotic adaptation research as inferred through proxy observations and modeling studies., The initial workshops that catalyzed this project were supported by The Bolin Center for Climate Research, Stockholm University, and the Swedish Research Council (Conference Grant nr. 2018–06,618 to M. Steinthorsdottir). The authors acknowledge funding from: the Swedish Research Council (VR starting grant nr. NT7-2016 04,905 to M. Steinthorsdottir; VR grants nr. 2016–03,912 to A. M. de Boer and nr. 2016–04,434 to J. Henderiks); the United States National Science Foundation (NSF), through the P2C2 program grant nr. 1602905 to M. Huber, the Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences program grant nr. to N.J.B (who is also supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation as a Research Fellow), and the Global Change, Sedimentary Geology & Paleobiology, and Geobiology and Low-temperature Geochemistry programs grant nrs. 1349749 and1561027 to M. J. Kohn; and the UK Natural Environment Research Council (grant NE/P019102) to C. H. Lear. E. Gasson acknowledges funding from a Royal Society fellowship. Clara Bolton, Peter Bijl, Daniel Breecker, Jeremy Caves Rugenstein, Florence Collioni, Mikael Fortelius, David Lazarus, Eelco Rohling, Francesca Sangiorgi, Maria Seton, Erik Skovbjerg Rasmussen, Appy Sluijs, Lars Werdelin, and Zhongshi Zhang are thanked for their useful comments with respect to Figure 1. M. Huber acknowledges assistance in Miocene work from Nick Herold and Ashley Dicks. No new data were created for this study, and all reviewed data sets are available through the cited original papers. The authors declare no conflict of interest.

The classic scenario for the generation of Dansgaard‐Oeschger (DO) events assumes a link to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) induced by North Atlantic freshwater perturbations. Recent proxy data emphasize the existence of leads and lags between DO fingerprints in Greenland and Antarctic records, highlighting the potential of a Southern Hemisphere control on these events. Investigating this possibility, we provide a conceptual model resulting from phase space reconstructions based on the northern and southern ice core records. The resulting patterns closely resemble AMOC hysteresis, consistent with a northern abrupt warming linked to gradual global temperature changes. This suggests that rapid DO warmings associated with abrupt AMOC transitions from a relatively weak (cold stadial) state to a stronger (warm interstadial) state can be controlled by global forcing that can be linked to the Southern Hemisphere, rather than by the end of a local temporary forcing in the North Atlantic.

In order to account for coupled climate–soil processes, we have developed a soil scheme which is asynchronously coupled to a comprehensive climate model with dynamic vegetation. This scheme considers vegetation as the primary control of changes in physical soil characteristics. We test the scheme for a warmer (mid-Holocene) and colder (Last Glacial Maximum) climate relative to the preindustrial climate. We find that the computed changes in physical soil characteristics lead to significant amplification of global climate anomalies, representing a positive feedback. The inclusion of the soil feedback yields an extra surface warming of 0.24 °C for the mid-Holocene and an additional global cooling of 1.07 °C for the Last Glacial Maximum. Transition zones such as desert–savannah and taiga–tundra exhibit a pronounced response in the model version with dynamic soil properties. Energy balance model analyses reveal that our soil scheme amplifies the temperature anomalies in the mid-to-high northern latitudes via changes in the planetary albedo and the effective longwave emissivity. As a result of the modified soil treatment and the positive feedback to climate, part of the underestimated mid-Holocene temperature response to orbital forcing can be reconciled in the model.

In this review paper we summarise a series of numerical abrupt climate change experiments in the context deglaciation. The effects of global warming, deglacial freshwater, and ice sheets for the termination of the last ice age are examined in a model of intermediate complexity and a fully coupled, coarse-resolution climate model. We find that gradual deglacial global warming induces an abrupt strengthening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). More generally, if the system is in a bistable window, a linear forcing can yield non-linear AMOC changes. In this sense Northern Hemisphere freshwater hosing only modulates the timing of the AMOC onset. Furthermore, Northern Hemisphere freshwater hosing weakens the AMOC with a potential overshoot, after the freshwater forcing has stopped. Therefore, as a further hypothesis the onset of Bølling/Allerød (B/A) interstadial with warming over Greenland could be related to an increase in AMOC, which is induced by a declining freshwater forcing prior to or in parallel with the transition. In contrast, hosing in the Southern Hemisphere has a relatively minor influence on the AMOC. The associated climate signatures and mechanisms are explored and discussed in this study.

There is an increasing need to understand the pre-Quaternary warm climates, how climate-vegetation interactions functioned in the past, and how we can use this information to understand the present. Here we report vegetation modelling results for the Late Miocene (11-7 Ma) to study the mechanisms of vegetation dynamics and the role of different forcing factors that influence the spatial patterns of vegetation coverage. One of the key uncertainties is the atmospheric concentration of CO2 during past climates. Estimates for the last 20 million years range from 280 to 500 ppm. We simulated Late Miocene vegetation using two plausible CO2 concentrations, 280 ppm CO2 and 450 ppm CO2, with a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ-GUESS) driven by climate input from a coupled AOGCM (Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model). The simulated vegetation was compared to existing plant fossil data for the whole Northern Hemisphere. For the comparison we developed a novel approach that uses information of the relative dominance of different plant functional types (PFTs) in the palaeobotanical data to provide a quantitative estimate of the agreement between the simulated and reconstructed vegetation. Based on this quantitative assessment we find that pre-industrial CO2 levels are largely consistent with the presence of seasonal temperate forests in Europe (suggested by fossil data) and open vegetation in North America (suggested by multiple lines of evidence). This suggests that during the Late Miocene the CO2 levels have been relatively low, or that other factors that are not included in the models maintained the seasonal temperate forests and open vegetation.

The import of relatively salty water masses from the Indian Ocean to the Atlantic is considered to be important for the operational mode of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). However, the occurrence and the origin of changes in this import behavior on millennial and glacial/interglacial timescales remains equivocal. Here we reconstruct multiproxy paleosalinity changes in the Agulhas Current since the Last Glacial Maximum and compare the salinity pattern with records from the Indian-Atlantic Ocean Gateway (I-AOG) and model simulations using a fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model. The reconstructed paleosalinity pattern in the Agulhas Current displays coherent variability with changes recorded in the wider I-AOG region over the last glacial termination. We infer that salinities simultaneously increased in both areas consistent with a quasi interhemispheric salt-seesaw response, analogous to the thermal bipolar seesaw in response to a reduced cross-hemispheric heat and salt exchange during times of weakened AMOC. Interestingly, these hydrographic shifts can also be recognized in the wider Southern Hemisphere, which indicates that salinity anomalies are not purely restricted to the Agulhas Current System itself. More saline upstream Agulhas waters were propagated to the I-AOG during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1). However, the salt flux into the South Atlantic might have been reduced due to a decreased volume transport through the I-AOG during the AMOC slowdown associated with HS1. Hence, our combined data-model interpretation suggests that intervals with higher salinity in the Agulhas Current source region are not necessarily an indicator for an increased salt import via the I-AOG into the South Atlantic.