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We review observations of solar activity, geomagnetic variation, and auroral visibility for the extreme geomagnetic storm on 1872 February 4. The extreme storm (referred to here as the Chapman-Silverman storm) apparently originated from a complex active region of moderate area (\approx 500 {\mu}sh) that was favorably situated near disk center (S19{\deg} E05{\deg}). There is circumstantial evidence for an eruption from this region at 9--10 UT on 1872 February 3, based on the location, complexity, and evolution of the region, and on reports of prominence activations, which yields a plausible transit time of \approx29 hr to Earth. Magnetograms show that the storm began with a sudden commencement at \approx14:27 UT and allow a minimum Dst estimate of {\pounds} -834 nT. Overhead aurorae were credibly reported at Jacobabad (British India) and Shanghai (China), both at 19{\deg}.9 in magnetic latitude (MLAT) and 24{\deg}. 2 in invariant latitude (ILAT). Auroral visibility was reported from 13 locations with MLAT below |20|{\deg} for the 1872 storm (ranging from |10{\deg}. 0|--|19{\deg}. 9| MLAT) versus one each for the 1859 storm (|17{\deg}. 3| MLAT) and the 1921 storm (|16.{\deg}2| MLAT). The auroral extension and conservative storm intensity indicate a magnetic storm of comparable strength to the extreme storms of 1859 September (25{\deg}.1 \pm 0{\deg}.5 ILAT and -949 \pm 31 nT) and 1921 May (27{\deg}.1 ILAT and -907 \pm 132 nT), which places the 1872 storm among the three largest magnetic storms yet observed., Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables, published

Major solar eruptions occasionally direct interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) to Earth and cause significant geomagnetic storms and low-latitude aurorae. While single extreme storms are of significant threats to the modern civilization, storms occasionally appear in sequence and, acting synergistically, cause 'perfect storms' at Earth. The stormy interval in January 1938 was one of such cases. Here, we analyze the contemporary records to reveal its time series on their source active regions, solar eruptions, ICMEs, geomagnetic storms, low-latitude aurorae, and cosmic-ray (CR) variations. Geomagnetic records show that three storms occurred successively on 17/18 January (Dcx ~ -171 nT) on 21/22 January (Dcx ~ -328 nT) and on 25/26 January (Dcx ~ -336 nT). The amplitudes of the cosmic-ray variations and sudden storm commencements show the impact of the first ICME as the largest (~ 6% decrease in CR and 72 nT in SSC) and the ICME associated with the storms that followed as more moderate (~ 3% decrease in CR and 63 nT in SSC; ~ 2% decrease in CR and 63 nT in SSC). Interestingly, a significant solar proton event occurred on 16/17 January and the Cheltenham ionization chamber showed a possible ground level enhancement. During the first storm, aurorae were less visible at mid-latitudes, whereas during the second and third storms, the equatorward boundaries of the auroral oval were extended down to 40.3{\deg} and 40.0{\deg} in invariant latitude. This contrast shows that the initial ICME was probably faster, with a higher total magnitude but a smaller southward component., Comment: main text 28 pages, references 11 pages, 2 tables, and 8 figures. Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal

While the Sun is generally more eruptive during its maximum and declining phases, observational evidence shows certain cases of powerful solar eruptions during the quiet phase of the solar activity. Occurring in the weak Solar Cycle 14 just after its minimum, the extreme space weather event in 1903 October -- November was one of these cases. Here, we reconstruct the time series of geomagnetic activity based on contemporary observational records. With the mid-latitude magnetograms, the 1903 magnetic storm is thought to be caused by a fast coronal mass ejection (~1500 km/s) and is regarded as an intense event with an estimated minimum Dst' of ~-513 nT The reconstructed time series has been compared with the equatorward extension of auroral oval (~44.1{\deg} in invariant latitude) and the time series of telegraphic disturbances. This case study shows that potential threats posed by extreme space weather events exist even during weak solar cycles or near their minima., Comment: 20 pages, 5 figures, 1 table, and accepted for publication in the ApJL

The sunspot record is the only observational tracer of solar activity that provides a fundamental, multi-century reference. Its homogeneity has been largely maintained with a succession of long-duration visual observers. In this paper, we examine observations of one of the primary reference sunspot observers, Hisako Koyama. By consulting original archives of the National Museum of Nature and Science of Japan (hereafter, NMNS), we retrace the main steps of her solar-observing career, from 1945 to 1996. We also present the reconstruction of a full digital database of her sunspot observations at the NMNS, with her original drawings and logbooks. Here, we extend the availability of her observational data from 1947-1984 to 1945-1996. Comparisons with the international sunspot number (version 2) and with the group sunspot number series show a good global stability of Koyama's observations, with only temporary fluctuations over the main interval 1947-1982. Identifying drawings made by alternate observers throughout the series, we find that a single downward baseline shift in the record coincides with the partial contribution of replacement observers mostly after 1983. We determine the correction factor to bring the second part (1983-1996) to the same scale with Koyama's main interval (1947-1982). We find a downward jump by 9% after 1983, which then remains stable until 1996. Overall, the high quality of Koyama's observations with her life-long dedication leaves a lasting legacy of this exceptional personal achievement. With this comprehensive recovery, we now make the totality of this legacy directly accessible and exploitable for future research., Comment: Main text 31 pages, references 6 pages, 13 figures, 3 tabes, accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2020

The Carrington event is considered to be one of the most extreme space weather events in observational history within a series of magnetic storms caused by extreme interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) from a large and complex active region (AR) emerged on the solar disk. In this article, we study the temporal and spatial evolutions of the source sunspot active region and visual aurorae, and compare this storm with other extreme space weather events on the basis of their spatial evolution. Sunspot drawings by Schwabe, Secchi, and Carrington describe the position and morphology of the source AR at that time. Visual auroral reports from the Russian Empire, Iberia, Ireland, Oceania, and Japan fill the spatial gap of auroral visibility and revise the time series of auroral visibility in mid to low magnetic latitudes (MLATs). The reconstructed time series is compared with magnetic measurements and shows the correspondence between low to mid latitude aurorae and the phase of magnetic storms. The spatial evolution of the auroral oval is compared with those of other extreme space weather events in 1872, 1909, 1921, and 1989 as well as their storm intensity, and contextualizes the Carrington event, as one of the most extreme space weather events, but likely not unique., Comment: main text 25 pages, reference 10 pages, 7 figures, and 1 table, accepted for publication in Space Weather

Dim red aurora at low magnetic latitudes is a visual and recognized manifestation of geomagnetic storms. The great low-latitude auroral displays seen throughout East Asia on 16-18 September 1770 are considered to manifest one of the greatest storms. Recently found 111 historical documents in East Asia attest that these low-latitude auroral displays were succeeding for almost 9 nights during 10-19 September 1770 in the lowest magnetic latitude areas (< 30{\deg}). This suggests that the duration of the great magnetic storm is much longer than usual. Sunspot drawings from 1770 reveals the fact that sunspots area was twice as large as those observed in another great storm of 1859, which substantiates this unusual storm activities in 1770. These spots likely ejected several huge, sequential magnetic structures in short duration into interplanetary space, resulting in spectacular world-wide aurorae in mid-September 1770. These findings provide new insights about the history, duration, and effects of extreme magnetic storms that may be valuable for those who need to mitigate against extreme events., Comment: 2017/10/23 accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters

UNKNOWN

Infrared radiative cooling by nitric oxide (NO) and carbon dioxide (CO2) modulates the thermosphere’s density and thermal response to geomagnetic storms. Satellite tracking and collision avoidance planning require accurate density forecasts during these events. Over the past several years, failed density forecasts have been tied to the onset of rapid and significant cooling due to production of NO and its associated radiative cooling via emission of infrared radiation at 5.3 μm. These results have been diagnosed, after the fact, through analyses of measurements of infrared cooling made by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry instrument now in orbit over 16 years on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Thermosphere, Ionosphere, Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics satellite. Radiative cooling rates for NO and CO2 have been further shown to be directly correlated with composition and exospheric temperature changes during geomagnetic storms. These results strongly suggest that a network of smallsats observing the infrared radiative cooling of the thermosphere could serve as space weather sentinels. These sentinels would observe and provide radiative cooling rate data in real time to generate nowcasts of density and aerodynamic drag on space vehicles. Currently, radiative cooling is not directly considered in operational space weather forecast models. In addition, recent research has shown that different geomagnetic storm types generate substantially different infrared radiative response, and hence, substantially different thermospheric density response. The ability to identify these storms, and to measure and predict the Earth’s response to them, should enable substantial improvement in thermospheric density forecasts.

The Global Positioning System (GPS) has revolutionized the process of getting from point A to point Band so much more. A large fraction of the worlds population relies on GPS (and its counterparts from other nations) for precision timing, location, and navigation. Most GPS users are unaware that the spacecraft providing the signals they rely on are operating in a very harsh space environment the radiation belts where energetic particles trapped in Earths magnetic field dash about at nearly the speed of light. These subatomic particles relentlessly pummel GPS satellites. So by design, every GPS satellite and its sensors are radiation hardened. Each spacecraft carries particle detectors that provide health and status data to system operators. Although these data reveal much about the state of the space radiation environment, heretofore they have been available only to system operators and supporting scientists. Research scientists have long sought a policy shift to allow more general access. With the release of the National Space Weather Strategy and Action Plan organized by the White House Office of Science Technology Policy (OSTP) a sample of these data have been made available to space weather researchers. Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the National Center for Environmental Information released a months worth of GPS energetic particle data from an interval of heightened space weather activity in early 2014 with the hope of stimulating integration of these data sets into the research arena. Even before the public data release GPS support scientists from LANL showed the extraordinary promise of these data.

Poynting flux into the ionosphere measures the electromagnetic energy coming from the magnetosphere. This energy flux can vary greatly between quiet times and geomagnetic active times. As part of the Geospace Environment Modeling-coupling energetics and dynamics of atmospheric regions modeling challenge, physics-based models of the 3-D ionosphere and ionospheric electrodynamics solvers of magnetosphere models that specify Joule heat and empirical models specifying Poynting flux were run for six geomagnetic storm events of varying intensity. We compared model results with Poynting flux values along the DMSP-15 satellite track computed from ion drift meter and magnetic field observations. Although being a different quantity, Joule heat can in practice be correlated to incoming Poynting flux because the energy is dissipated primarily in high latitudes where Poynting flux is being deposited. Within the physics-based model group, we find mixed results with some models overestimating Joule heat and some models agreeing better with observed Poynting flux rates as integrated over auroral passes. In contrast, empirical models tend to underestimate integrated Poynting flux values. Modeled Joule heat or Poynting flux patterns often resemble the observed Poynting flux patterns on a large scale, but amplitudes can differ by a factor of 2 or larger due to the highly localized nature of observed Poynting flux deposition that is not captured by the models. In addition, the positioning of modeled patterns appear to be randomly shifted against the observed Poynting flux energy input. This study is the first to compare Poynting flux and Joule heat in a large variety of models of the ionosphere.

As part to the GEM-CEDAR challenge we are extending the model-data comparisons to electrodynamic in-situ measurements in low-Earth orbit. We use DMSP observations of electric and magnetic fields to compute Poynting Flux values along the satellite track in high latitudes including the auroral zones and the polar cap. Models of the ionosphere that include electrodynamic parameters have been run for five events selected for the GEM-CEDAR modeling challenge for which DMSP data are available for comparison. Combined with a magnetic field model we use the modeled electric fields to compute Poynting Flux and Joule Dissipation values from outputs of CTIPe, TIE-GCM, the ionospheric electrodynamics solvers of the SWMF, LFM and OpenGGCM magnetosphere-ionosphere coupled models, and the Weimer electric field model. The online metrics analysis tool at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) has been updated to handle the analysis of separate short segments of available data (high-latitude sections of the satellite orbit) with model outputs to analyze how well auroral patterns are being reproduced by the models. We present initial results from the new analysis tool in terms of model yields (ratio of the difference between maximum and minimum values of model results to the observation), timing/location errors of local maxima in the inbound and outbound auroral crossings as well as cross-correlations for individual passes. We collect the information for many DMSP passes and present an analysis for model performance during quiet and geomagnetically disturbed time periods using half-orbit integrated values as well.