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The most time consuming and computationally intensive steps in petroleum systems analysis involve building heat flow boundary conditions that are consistent with regional geologic observations, solving the transient heat equation, and translating a range of hydrocarbon charge predictions from source intervals into prospect specific predictions that can be used for decision making in oil and gas exploration. Furthermore, three-dimensional regional flexure, which can have a significant impact on paleo-migration pathways, often is not included in the critical step of translating charge calculations into trap specific predictions due to the time-consuming nature of map preparation. In this paper, an efficient and integrated petroleum systems analysis (IPA) workflow is presented with a new fast, semi-analytical, decoupled approach for solving the transient heat equation that is fully integrated with a rapid inversion methodology for transient heat flow boundary conditions and a 3D regional flexural reconstruction that uses standard basin modeling inputs and requires little to no additional map preparation. A charge-to-trap model is also described that translates hydrocarbon expulsion calculations with dynamic parameterized gas fractions that vary with transformation ratio into trap specific predictions using flexurally restored migration polygons. This fully integrated and efficient approach enables rapid interactive investigation of uncertainty space and fast probabilistic modeling that is ideal for evaluating hydrocarbon charge and commodity risk in data-sparse frontier basins. The applicability of this approach is demonstrated for assessing charge and commodity risk with a case study from the Colorado Basin, Argentina, whereby two alternative hydrocarbon accumulation hypotheses that postulate that traps are filled to structural spill with undersaturated oil are tested for reservoirs located in the upper Colorado Formation that are charged by postulated Aptian and Neocomian source rocks. This application indicates that it is unlikely that the tested traps are filled to structural spill with undersaturated oil, and how incorrect conclusions on hydrocarbon commodity may be reached if 3D regional flexure is not considered during petroleum systems analysis. Finally, it is also shown how this integrated and efficient approach can be implemented with low-cost computational platforms such as Python Anaconda or in spreadsheet programs that empower modelers to rapidly translate their ideas into benchmarked prototypes that can be immediately leveraged by the geoscience community (www.github.com/eakneller/ipatoolkit3D). • We show a basin analysis workflow with 3D flexure, boundary condition inversion and a new efficient approach for solving the heat equation. • A hydrocarbon expulsion model with dynamic gas fractions and 3D flexure is presented enabling efficient oil and gas commodity predictions. • This new integrated and efficient approach enables rapid interactive investigation of uncertainty space and probabilistic modeling. • A case study from the Colorado Basin is presented showing the applicability of this approach and the importance of including 3D flexure. • Finally, we show how this optimized approach can be implemented with low-cost computational platforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Published plate reconstructions commonly show significant differences in initial plate configuration and syn-extensional opening directions. The variability of published models is primarily due to the difficulty associated with restoring crustal stretching history. Here we present an inverse non-rigid kinematic method that inverts plate motion and present day crustal thickness to approximate the history of bulk lateral strain and crustal thinning associated with lithospheric stretching. The kinematic link between plate motion and bulk crustal thickness that is used with this method is based on insights obtained from geodynamic models. We implement this approach in open source kinematic modeling software and apply it to test new Early Mesozoic plate kinematic models of the Central Atlantic. This application shows that the patterns of stretching inferred from the syn-rift basins of the Newark Supergroup can be explained if (1) syn-rift Euler pole flow lines were parallel to the Grand Banks transform margin and (2) initial formation of the East Coast Margin Igneous Province was coincident with the formation of the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province. These syn-rift to breakup models of the Central Atlantic lead to better constrained models of early seafloor spreading that show full spreading velocities in the ultraslow regime and within the transition from ultraslow to slow spreading regimes. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Recent shear wave splitting measurements from the fore-arc region of the Ryukyu subduction system show large magnitude (0.3–1.6 s) trench-parallel splitting in both local and teleseismic phases. The similarity of splitting parameters associated with shallow local-S and teleseismic phases suggests that the source of anisotropy is located in the fore-arc mantle. One explanation for this pattern of shear wave splitting involves a transition from commonly observed high-temperature olivine fabrics with flow-parallel seismically fast directions to a flow-normal B-type olivine fabric in the cold fore-arc mantle of the Ryukyu wedge. We test the B-type fabric hypothesis by comparing observed splitting parameters to those predicted from geodynamic models that incorporate olivine fabric development. The distribution of olivine fabric is calculated with high-resolution thermomechanical models of the Ryukyu subduction zone that include realistic slab geometry and an experimentally based wet olivine rheology. We conclude that B-type fabric can explain the magnitude and trench-parallel orientation of deep local-S phases that sample the core of the fore-arc mantle. However, our calculations show that B-type fabric alone cannot account for large magnitude trench-parallel splitting associated with teleseismic phases that sample the shallow tip of the fore-arc mantle. Alternative models for trench-parallel teleseismic splitting in the shallow tip of the fore-arc mantle involve the addition of crustal or slab anisotropy and highly anisotropic foliated antigorite serpentinite. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Shear-wave splitting measurements above the mantle wedge of the Mariana and southern Andean subduction zones show trench-parallel seismically fast directions close to the trench and abrupt rotations to trench-perpendicular anisotropy in the back arc. These patterns of seismic anisotropy may be caused by three-dimensional flow associated with along-strike variations in slab geometry. The Mariana and Andean subduction systems are associated with the largest along-strike variations of slab geometry observed on Earth and are ideal for testing the link between slab geometry and solid-state creep processes in the mantle. Here we show, with fully three-dimensional non-newtonian subduction zone models, that the strong curvature of the Mariana slab and the transition to shallow slab dip in the Southern Andes give rise to strong trench-parallel stretching in the warm-arc and warm-back-arc mantle and to abrupt rotations in stretching directions that are accompanied by strong trench-parallel stretching. These models show that the patterns of shear-wave splitting observed in the Mariana and southern Andean systems may be caused by significant three-dimensional flow induced by along-strike variations in slab geometry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain trench-parallel shear wave splitting in the mantle wedge of subduction zones. These include 3-D flow effects, parallel melt filled cracks, and B-type olivine fabric. We predict the distribution of B-type and other fabrics with high-resolution thermal and stress models of subduction zones. A composite viscous rheology is used that incorporates wet diffusion creep, wet dislocation creep, and a stress-limiting approximated Peierls creep law. Rheological parameters for dislocation and diffusion creep are based on deformation experiments. The effects of variable viscous coupling between the slab and mantle are explored using kinematic boundary conditions that change along the top of the slab. Two end-member models are observed, which depend on the depth of partial viscous coupling between the slab and mantle: (1) deep partial coupling which gives rise to cold, high-stress conditions in the forearc mantle and high-temperature, low-stress conditions in the arc and back-arc mantle (2) full viscous coupling at the base of a 40 km conducting lid which is characterized by high temperature and low stress. The case with deep partial coupling, which produces a better match with attenuation tomography and heat flow, shows a large region with suitable conditions for B-type fabric in the forearc mantle and a rapid transition toward the back-arc to conditions that are more suitable for A-, C-, or E-type fabrics. Full viscous coupling gives rise to high-temperature, low-stress conditions unsuitable for B-type fabric. Our modeling predicts that the best candidates for regions with B-type fabric are the forearc mantle and a cold 10–15 km layer above the slab. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Thermal models of subduction zones often base their slab–wedge geometry from seismicity at mantle depths and, consequently, cannot be used to evaluate the relationship between seismicity and structure. Here, high-resolution seismic observations from the recent Broadband Experiment Across the Alaska Range (BEAAR) constrain, in a rare instance, the subducting slab geometry and mantle wedge temperature independent of seismicity. Receiver functions reveal that the subducting crust descends less steeply than the Wadati-Benioff Zone. Attenuation tomography of the mantle wedge reveals a high Q and presumably cold region where the slab is less than 80 km deep. To understand these two observations, we generate thermal models that use the improved wedge geometry from receiver functions and that incorporate temperature- and strain-rate-dependent olivine rheology. These calculations show that seismicity within the subducting crust falls in a narrow belt of pressure–temperature conditions, illuminating an effective Clapeyron slope of 0.1 K/MPa at temperatures of 450–750 °C. These conditions typify the breakdown of high-pressure hydrous minerals such as lawsonite and suggest that a single set of dehydration reactions may trigger intermediate-depth seismicity. The models also require that the upper, cold nose of the mantle wedge be isolated from the main flow in the mantle wedge in order to sustain the cold temperatures inferred from the Q tomography. Possibly, sufficient mechanical decoupling occurs at the top of the downgoing slab along a localized shear zone to 80 km depth, considerably deeper than inferred from thrust zone seismicity. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]