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NPS NRP Executive Summary The study's goal is to comparatively evaluate combat effectiveness of the planned Fleet Design with a novel alternative design against potential global adversaries in the 2040 timeframe. Insights and recommendations from the study will be used in the next Force Structure Assessment and the FY 2024 30-Year Shipbuilding Plan. N8 - Integration of Capabilities & Resources This research is supported by funding from the Naval Postgraduate School, Naval Research Program (PE 0605853N/2098). https://nps.edu/nrp Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.

NOTE: This version was updated 2 March 2021 to include one of the five authors inadvertently omitted from the previously posted version. From a concept generated during the September 2020 Warfare Innovation Continuum (WIC) Workshop “Resurrecting War Plan Blue” at the Naval Postgraduate School by the Naval Warfare Studies Institute (NWSI), this policy pilot proposal seeks to inform a National Resilience Strategy through a design challenge for the nation to create greener products, more agile processes, and a skilled and capable citizenry to ensure national security and resilience in the face of future crisis or conflict. For more information on the Warfare Innovation Continuum, the WIC Workshop, and NWSI please visit the NWSI website at https://nps.edu/web/nwsi.

17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review. The article of record as published may be found at https://cimsec.org/revamping-wargaming-education-for-the-u-s-department-of-defense/

17 USC 105 interim-entered record; under review. The article of record as published may be found at https://cimsec.org/force-structure-perspectives-capt-jeff-kline-ret-on-bringing-the-fleet-into-the-robotics-age/

Poster for a Seapower Conversation presentation Naval Warfare Studies Institute (NWSI)

OPNAV N2N6 NPS-19-N191-C

NPS NRP Executive Summary Project Summary: This research project examined Combined, Joint and Coalition Warfare at Sea in a future Distributed Maritime Operations (DMO) environment for US Fleet Forces Command (USFF). It focused on Fleet Design capabilities and capacities, including a rigorous assessment of Joint and Coalition enabler's key elements of Fleet Design. It includes USFF stretch goals, experimentation hypothesis, identified Joint Capability Area capability, select multi-domain capability and identified leap-ahead technology. The Winter NPS Joint Campaign Analysis (JCA) class' mini-study of a Western Pacific scenario conducted exploratory employment of technologies under the Fleet Design concept as identified by the USFF sponsor, and provided a gross quantitative assessment of military utility as options for the warfighter against a growing maritime power. The second phase introduced Fleet Design into the Spring OA4604 Wargaming Applications course. A faculty-advised student wargaming team designed, developed, conducted, and analyzed a wargame that leveraged the factors and parameters, measures of effectiveness and scenarios that were identified by the Joint Campaign Analysis effort. The third phase of the effort conducted a second look at Fleet Design technologies from phases 1 and 2, along with additional technologies as designated by USFF sponsor. This phase included emerging Fleet Design updates and updated Fleet Design "Stretch" goals. The fourth phase of this research will be to conduct a second Fleet Design wargame in the Fall (FY19) OA4604 Wargaming Applications course. Using feedback from the first two JCA courses and the first Fleet Design wargame in the spring, this wargame will provide a more in depth examination of emerging Fleet concepts and provide an assessment of Future Fleet Design Attributes and provide an assessment of future Navy capabilities through the lens of integration, distribution and maneuver. USFF N8/N9 NPS-18-N378-A Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

CRUSER TechCon 2018 Research at NPS. Wednesday 1: Sensing Developing Tactics and assessing the value of new technology in Naval Warfare Appleget, Lucas, Kline, and Tanalega We present the Naval Postgraduate School's warfare analysis process for developing tactics and assessing the value of new technology through a case study of the Medium Displacement Unmanned Surface Vessel's (MDUSV) potential contribution to distributed maritime operations and sea strike. We will show how our warfare analysis group leverages classroom projects, theses and research in advancing naval concepts, assessing new technologies, and developing tactics while enhancing our students' educational experience and sharpening their combat skills. We will specifically discuss how the MDUSV's concepts for employment are developed and evaluated in the Joint Campaign Analysis class and Warfare Innovation Workshop; lessons learned through our wargaming class' execution of a Distributed Maritime Operations game, and finally how the intelligent design of experiments allows us to simulate hundreds of thousands of tactical engagements to explore important design, performance parameters, and tactics associated with employing the MDUSV in a contested environment. We conclude with a summary other concepts, tactics, and technologies we have developed in this process.

Naval Research Program Poster Jeffrey E Kline: Principal Investigator CFFC OPNAV N96 Marine Corps University CNSF N9 - Warfare Systems, Topic sponsor; Christine Oconnell, contact NPS-18-N174-A

NPS NRP Executive Summary Project Summary: Using a series of campaign analyses, wargaming, systems analysis studies, and systems engineering, this research analyzes the offensive effectiveness of an adaptive force package (AFP) composed of an AMERICA class amphibious assault ship (LHA) equipped with the Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter STOVL Variant aircraft (F-35B), unmanned air and surface platforms, and various numbers of Guided Missile Destroyers (DDGs) and littoral combat ships (LCSs). Offensive anti-surface warfare (ASUW) is the focused mission area, however, increased vulnerability to the LHA is also explored. Emerging themes and findings include the following. Augmented by the Marine Corps Air-Ground Task Force (MAGTF) Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) Expeditionary Experimental tiltrotor system (MUX), the LHA Air Combat Element (ACE) adds significant intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) and communications relay capability to a traditional surface action group. The air combat element (ACE)'s F- 35B can add a robust anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) and ISR capabilities to a traditional surface action group. To best be configured for a sea control mission including air defense, the ACE on the LHA will need to be augmented with additional F-35Bs at a significant cost to rotary-wing/tiltrotor assault-support lift. OPNAV N96Z Warfare Systems NPS-18-N174-A Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited.

Naval Warfare Studies Institute (NWSI) Warfare Innovation Continuum (WIC) The Warfare Innovation Continuum (WIC) is a series of coordinated cross‐campus educational and research activities synchronized by the Chair of Systems Engineering Analysis with a central theme of interest to the United States Navy. Its purpose is to expose NPS faculty and students to emerging naval challenges and opportunities to allow relevant education and research across campus.

The United States Department of Defense [DoD] and the military services have employed wargaming for well over a century to prepare for war and other operations. The Naval War College first employed naval wargames in the late 19th century at the tactical and strategic levels. During the period between world wars, Plan Orange wargaming at the Naval War College was a key contributor to the strategic plan that led to the defeat of the Japanese Empire in 1945. Since that conflict, wargaming techniques have become widespread within U.S. organizations and throughout the world. Department of the Navy (DON) Department of Defense (DoD)

The admiral nodded in agreement! Since he had no background in operations analysis, I was pleasantly surprised he was following my explanation of integer linear programming used in the newly developed theater ballistic missile defense decision aid I was presenting. Maybe I will explain the history of the simplex algorithm next!

This research project created, developed and then assessed an agent based model within NSWCDD’s Orchestrated Simulation Model to represent naval surface to surface engagements in order to aid in the development of the distributed lethality concept. The Distributed Lethality OSM (DL-OSM) simulation was assessed through wargaming, a fleet exercise, and using advanced experimental design to explored best tactics for organic helicopters, emission control, and formations during surface to surface engagements. The simulation was determined to be satisfactory to explore tactical variables in the distributed lethality concept. Naval Research Program Prepared for Topic Sponsor: COMNAVSURFOR; Distributed Lethality Task Force Research POC Name: CDR Robert Bryans, USN N16-N233-A

OpTech East Presentation