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This report explores which routes in the Nordic Region will be suitable for establishing electric aviation according to two factors: energy demands of airports and regional power adequacy. The report is part of the Nordregio project Electric aviation and the effects on the Nordic Regions and substantially builds on the project’s Accessibility study.

Denmark has an ambitious long-term goal to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transport sector with an overall climate target to be independent of fossil-fuel consumption by 2050. We compare a likely scenario with two alternative ways to achieve the goal—either with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) or with a high percentage of hydrogen use for transportation. The STREAM model—an energy scenario simulating tool—is used to model the different scenarios and their integration with the electricity and heating systems. The major findings are that an increased share of EV can reduce the socioeconomic cost of the energy system in 2050. However, electricity demand for H2 generation via electrolysis is more flexible than EV charging and the production can therefore, to a larger degree be used to out-balance variable electricity surplus from a high share of wind energy in the power system, reducing the investments in backup capacity. Whether the hydrogen scenario (H2S) is more costly to implement than the EV scenario (EVS) mainly depends on the technological development—especially the improvement on the efficiency of the conversion from electricity to H2 and the cost of the hydrogen fuel cell vehicle. Therefore, the major drivers of a successful H2S are a high efficient flexible H2 production in 2050 and lower vehicle costs, which increase the stability of the power grid, compared to the EVS. Hence, from a socioeconomic view point, the technological path in innovation to achieve fossil-free transport systems should have vehicle costs and electrolyzers efficiency as their main drivers toward 2050. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

A framework to account for social acceptance in the modelling of energy-transition pathways is outlined. The geographical focus is on the Nordic-Baltic energy region and the technological focus is on onshore wind power and power transmission, which are considered key technologies in achieving carbon-neutral energy systems in northern Europe. We combine qualitative analysis of social acceptance with quantitative assessments of scenarios using techno-economic energy-system modelling. Key factors in and consequences of social acceptance are identified, especially environmental, health, and distributional factors, as well as costs for developers and society. The energy system analysis includes four scenarios illustrating the system effects and costs of low social acceptance. The results indicate that if low social acceptance were to restrict investments in onshore wind power, costlier solar photovoltaics and offshore wind power would step in. Greater social acceptance cost for onshore wind and transmission lines favours local solutions and a more balanced renewable energy mix. There are important distributional effects: no restrictions on transmission line investments benefit power producers while raising consumer prices in the Nordic-Baltic energy region, while very low social acceptance of onshore wind power would lead to 12% higher consumer costs. The results imply that socio-technical and political factors such as social acceptance may significantly affect transition pathway scenarios based on techno-economic variables alone. Therefore, the techno-economic, socio-technical and political layers of co-evolution of energy systems should be considered when analysing long-term energy transitions. It is important to link energy-system models with a consideration of the dynamics of socio-technical factors. A framework to account for social acceptance in the modelling of energy-transition pathways is outlined. The geographical focus is on the Nordic-Baltic energy region and the technological focus is on onshore wind power and power transmission, which are considered key technologies in achieving carbon-neutral energy systems in northern Europe. We combine qualitative analysis of social acceptance with quantitative assessments of scenarios using techno-economic energy-system modelling. Key factors in and consequences of social acceptance are identified, especially environmental, health, and distributional factors, as well as costs for developers and society. The energy system analysis includes four scenarios illustrating the system effects and costs of low social acceptance. The results indicate that if low social acceptance were to restrict investments in onshore wind power, costlier solar photovoltaics and offshore wind power would step in. Greater social acceptance cost for onshore wind and transmission lines favours local solutions and a more balanced renewable energy mix. There are important distributional effects: no restrictions on transmission line investments benefit power producers while raising consumer prices in the Nordic-Baltic energy region, while very low social acceptance of onshore wind power would lead to 12% higher consumer costs. The results imply that socio-technical and political factors such as social acceptance may significantly affect transition pathway scenarios based on techno-economic variables alone. Therefore, the techno-economic, socio-technical and political layers of co-evolution of energy systems should be considered when analysing long-term energy transitions. It is important to link energy-system models with a consideration of the dynamics of socio-technical factors.

This paper introduces the concept of Smart Energy Markets. Sustainable smart energy systems based on renewable energy cannot be implemented without addressing the issue of how to re-design existing electricity and gas markets. Moreover, markets for heating and transport fuels will also be challenged. In recent years, the re-design of the electricity market has attracted a lot of attention and is an area of focus in research. However, the re-design of electricity markets should not be seen isolated from the re-design of other energy markets. By applying a 100% renewable energy system scenario, this paper illustrates and quantifies how future renewable heating, green gas and liquid fuel markets will influence the electricity markets and vice versa. Based on this scenario, it is found that annual average market prices on the future green gas and liquid fuel markets may potentially be affected by the electricity and heating markets by 60–120 EUR/MWh, and the heating, green gas and liquid fuel markets could influence the annual average electricity prices by up to 28 EUR/MWh. The concept of Smart Energy Markets expresses the point that mutual influences become essential in the design of future energy markets facilitating the transition into smart energy systems based on variable renewable energy.

This study quantifies the economic potential of cross-border transmission to a decarbonized future Northwestern European power system through the energy model Balmorel. A scenario with modelled optimal transmission capacity at lowest total system costs is compared to the scenario with given capacity level of existing and planned projects. Increased transmission investments decrease total system costs and regional price difference. It benefits particularly wind power deployment and thus, lowers CO2 emissions in the power and heat sector. The impacts are, nevertheless, distributed asymmetrically to northern and western stakeholders. Northern consumers receive higher power prices, but the revenues of wind and hydropower producers also increases. Meanwhile, western consumers receive lower power prices, but gas power producer revenues decrease.

Electricity grid tariffs are a lever for reinforcing the coupling of district heating systems to the electricity system and for activating flexibility from power-to-heat (P2H) technologies and storage capacities. This study assesses three tariffs that permit a flexible use of electric boilers in a representative district heating system in Denmark. A mixed integer programming model is developed to evaluate the impact of each tariff on district heating flexibility quantitatively. The tariffs are then discussed in the light of the regulatory requirements that network tariffs must comply with. We show that alternative tariffs enhance the business case for P2H technologies to run flexibly, support the replacement of fossil fuels by green electricity and lower the overall cost of supplying heat. The attributes of each tariff create significant trade-offs between simplicity of implementation, cost efficiency at the distribution-grid level and cost-recovery for distribution system operators. Ultimately, new tariffs should be designed based on the characteristics of their respective groups of users in acknowledging features such as flexibility potential, substitutability between energy sources and captivity.

With expected future penetration of Variable Renewable Energies (VREs) arises the question of how to maximise the utilisation of large shares of cheap energy resources. The traditional way to address this is to export energy surpluses, thereby using interconnectors as flexibility solution. This study explores the benefits for Denmark of engaging into an electrification strategy of its District Heating (DH) system to unlock and expand thermal storage capacities. Energy system coupling activates low cost flexibility capable of complementing other flexibility echnologies at the power sector, while contributing to decarbonise the heat sector. We address the following research questions: What is the socio-economic value of the smart electrification of the heat sector in Denmark and what are the distribution effects generated by the integration of both sectors as compared to “traditional” flexibility strategy, embodied by flexible generation capacities, interconnections and possibly curtailment?

When the share of variable renewable energy, such as wind energy, in the energy system becomes large, the integration cost increases in accordance with the depletion of flexible ramping capabilities of the system. Therefore, integration of large shares of wind power into power system operations calls for market integration as well as for additional flexibility. Among the various available options, wind power plants themselves have the technical potential of offering flexibility. Using the Danish market conditions as a case study, we model and analyze four strategies for the participation of a wind power producer in day‐ahead and real‐time electricity markets, and compare how they affect the value of wind power production. Our findings suggest that wind power plants can have a more solid business case if they are active on both day‐ahead and real‐time power markets, which increases the economic value of wind energy as well as reduces the system integration costs. We also highlight that support schemes can affect the incentives for active participation on real‐time power markets. This type of insight is valuable for wind power's potential to expand its market share while keeping a high economic value in power markets, where the political trend is towards market based deployment of renewables and focus on low system integration costs. This article is categorized under: Wind Power > Systems and Infrastructure Wind Power > Economics and Policy Energy Systems Economics > Economics and Policy Energy Systems Analysis > Economics and Policy

The European Academy of Wind Energy (eawe), representing universities and institutes with a significant wind energy programme in 14 countries, has discussed the long-term research challenges in wind energy. In contrast to research agendas addressing short- to medium-term research activities, this eawe document takes a longer-term perspective, addressing the scientific knowledge base that is required to develop wind energy beyond the applications of today and tomorrow. In other words, this long-term research agenda is driven by problems and curiosity, addressing basic research and fundamental knowledge in 11 research areas, ranging from physics and design to environmental and societal aspects. Because of the very nature of this initiative, this document does not intend to be permanent or complete. It shows the vision of the experts of the eawe, but other views may be possible. We sincerely hope that it will spur an even more intensive discussion worldwide within the wind energy community.

The number of regional and national power systems with a high share of wind and solar power in the world is quickly increasing. The background for this development is improved technology, decreasing costs, and increased concern regarding environmental problems of competing technologies such as fossil fuels. For the future there are large possibilities for increasing the renewable electricity share. However, variable renewable power production has to be balanced. Demand side flexibility offers an interesting approach to the balancing issues. The aim of this paper is to compare flexibility potentials and how they were estimated in seven Northern European countries in order to compare general challenges and results as well as the connection between used method and results. The total flexibility is estimated to 12–23 GW in a system with a total peak load of 77 GW.

Finland has set ambitious long-term targets, which aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector and the whole energy system by 2050. By utilising the energy system model STREAM, which includes the power, heat and transport sectors, this paper develops two alternative scenarios for the transport sector by 2050—one with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) and another with a high percentage of biofuels (BIO), and compares the scenario results with a known Carbon-Neutral Scenario (CNS) which is adopted from the Nordic Energy Technology Perspective (IEA in Nordic energy technology perspective—pathways to a carbon-neutral energy future, 2013a). The socio-economic value of the total system cost is computed and the system integration of the transport sector with the electricity and heating sectors is simulated with an hourly time resolution. This study finds that a Finnish transport sector with a high share of EV by 2050 leads to the lowest total annual system cost of the scenarios and yields a reduction by 2.3% compared to CNS. While the transport configuration in the BIO scenario achieves the highest total annual system cost which is 0.4% higher than CNS. The robustness of the results is tested through a sensitivity analysis which shows that the costs (investment and maintenance) of biodiesel cars and EV are the most sensitive parameters in the comparative analysis of the scenarios.

This paper introduces the concept of flexibility-friendly support policies, i.e. state-of-the-system-dependent sub-sidies given to producers of electricity who base their output on renewable energy sources (RES). Such policies increase with demand, decrease with the availability of Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) producers and, overall, follow the power system's residual load. The paper presents a microeconomic framework to analyze this and other desirable properties of support mechanisms. To illustrate the concept, it uses the present-day policies of Nordic and Baltic countries (Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Sweden and Norway) as a case study.

Large shares of variable renewable energy (VRE), requires flexibility solutions are developed. Considerable flexibility potentials exist from large consumers, e.g. power-to-heat (P2H) in district heating (DH). However, the existing grid tariffs obliterate the price signals from the wholesale electricity market and diminish the business cases for these technologies by increasing the costs of their electricity consumption. With the present tariff structure, only a very small part of the flexibility potential is deployed or operated flexible. In this paper we compare two different grid tariff designs that facilitate more flexible energy demand of DH operators. This is illustrated by a case study of Denmark that clearly demonstrates that the introduction of innovative tariffs will improve the business case for flexible P2H technologies and increase the value of VRE. In this way larger flexibility potentials can be induced and larger shares of VRE become integrated in the energy systems.

While the majority of electricity in the Nordic and Baltic countries is traded at the day-ahead market, producers and consumers can use the intraday market to adjust their production commitments according to updated forecasts closer to the time of delivery. This reduces the need for balancing, particularly important for VRE producers, but it also means that the price formation at intraday market can change optimal bidding strategy in the day-ahead market. Through econometric modelling of intraday price premiums, this paper investigates intraday price asymmetries, which potentially can lead to strategic bidding. The intraday market is per definition symmetric, as prices for power sales always correspond to prices for power purchases, however, we find that this symmetry is not reflected in the price structure in regards to the total load adjustment needs.

The rapid growth of variable renewable energy (VRE) and the expected decrease of conventional generation capacities will generate more flexibility needs in power systems and require flexibility resources to be activated. Flexibility potentials do exist, whether they refer to installed generation, load adjustment or to a greater coupling to other energy sectors. In this paper, we identify the framework conditions that influence the provision of VRE-friendly flexibility in the Nordic and Baltic electricity sector, i.e., the market and regulatory settings that act as drivers or barriers to flexibility. We find that the most restrictive barriers against flexibility are emitted by public authorities as part of broader policy strategies. Overall, we find that current regulatory and market framework conditions do not hinder flexibility. However, despite that, flexibility remains limited due to a lack of coherent instruments intended to both the demand and supply-side to effectively act flexibly.

Large share of variable renewable energy sources (VRE) is being deployed in the Nordic countries, especially wind power. This calls for additional flexibility of the power market. With the right coupling to the underlying national and local district heating (DH) markets, large shares of flexibility can be generated. However, regulatory barriers and different energy taxes may hinder the potential benefits from systems integration and lower the realisable potentials. By a case study for Denmark we survey and discuss regulatory barriers and drivers for flexibility obtained from DH. We reveal that the choice of technologies for heat generation is mainly driven by outdated policies and tax conditions that create barriers for additional flexibility in the overall energy system. However, the balancing markets may be a main driver for introducing more electric boilers into DH and thereby increase its contribution to flexibility.

Future sustainable energy systems significantly rely on wind energy, both offshore and onshore. Designing and developing this novel part of the power supply system is not only a technical matter—it also gives rise to fundamental societal and economic challenges.

We discuss the analytical effects of introducing emission permits and green certificates and the corresponding quotas as regulatory mechanisms to, respectively, reduce emissions from electricity production and ensure a certain deployment of renewable energy. The different case studies in this paper show that both instruments can be used in order to reach an emission goal or a goal of renewable energy. However, the combination of these instruments and the way they are used, is shown to be important for the price faced by consumers. It is shown that the effect on the consumer price is not an unambiguous increase with the introduction of a green quota. There is a choice between quotas leading to a lower consumer price and quotas leading to a higher consumer price. As a result of this it is shown that it is always optimal to reach a renewable energy deployment goal by the use of green certificates. However, to reach an emission goal it is sometimes most favourable, with respect to consumer prices, to use green certificates and sometimes to use emission permits.

Denmark is one of the Northern European countries that have set up ambitious longterm targets to reduce GHG emissions from the transport as well as from other sectors. In Denmark the target is to make the transport sector independent of fossilfuel consumption by 2050 at the latest. This paper compares a likely scenario with two alternative ways to achieve the goal - either with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) or with a high percentage of hydrogen (H2) use in the transport sector. The STREAM model - an energy scenario simulating tool - provides insight into different potential energy mixes and calculates socio economic costs. It is used to model the different transport scenarios and their system integration with the electricity and heating sectors. The major findings of this paper are that an increased share of electric vehicles could significantly reduce the socio-economic cost of the energy system in 2050. Electricity demand for H2 generation via electrolysis is more flexible than EV charging and the production can therefore, to a larger degree be used to out-balance variable electricity surplus from a high share of wind and solar energy in the power system. H2 production may generate heat that can be used as district heating - replacing traditional heating plants, heat pumps and in some cases combined heat and power plants. Therefore the energy generation mix (electricity and heat) is more affected in the H2 scenario than in the EV scenario. Whether the H2 scenario is more costly to implement than the EV scenario mainly depends on the technological development - especially the improvement on the efficiency of the conversion from electricity to H2. It is found that a higher efficiency in the H2 production via electrolysis plays a more important role in decreasing the total cost of the energy system than a lower level of electrolyser capital cost. Therefore, the major driver of a successful H2 scenario is a high efficient and flexible H2 production in 2050. In other words, from a socio-economic view point this paper International Conference on Energy, Environment and Climate Change 198 estimates that the technological path in innovation should have efficiency as its main driver towards 2050.

The current trend of liberalising the power markets is combined with ambitious deployment plans for power production based on renewable energy supplies. A new policy scheme to ensure this extension has been developed in the form of a green certificate system, with a politically determined target of deployment. In such a system, producers of renewably based electricity receive tradable certificates in proportion to the electricity they produce. The producer can thereby sell these certificates and receive additional revenue apart from the power price. This paper studies the price and consumption effects of such a system. With a simple model we show that the effects are ambiguous. This ambiguity is caused by the interaction between the two markets. Therefore, the green certificate system is difficult to manage if the State has parallel energy targets, such as a desired deployment of renewably based energy and a stabilisation or reduction of the energy consumption. In addition, this complicates the regulation through a deployment target of renewably based power production, as the regulator has to be aware of the different effects, which follow a specific target. Until now, these effects have not been considered in the analyses of the green certificate system when introducing the system, even though it might have considerable consequences for the success of the system.

The continuation of consumer ownership has been an important part of the Danish electricity reform from 1999. Consumer ownership refers to either a consumer co-operative or a municipal utility. Contrary to conventional wisdom, consumer ownership can be supported by solid arguments from modern economic theory of organization. These arguments are presented and confronted with both present and future situation in Denmark. The development of the electricity supply industry after the Second World War has emptied consumer ownership of much of its original content. Nowadays, most consumers consider their electric utility as the (monopoly) supplier of a good they demand and not as something they own. Therefore, obligatory consumer ownership as specified in the new Danish Electricity Act of 1999 cannot be relied on to guarantee security of supply and reasonable prices for small consumers

The purpose of the present paper is to investigate what significance, if any, inclusion of uncertainties has for the conclusions of the modelling and analysis, i.e., whether the policy recommendations implicit in the results of the analysis depend on the inclusion or not of uncertainties. We do this within the context of a model of the Northern European electricity sector. The paper considers uncertainties about future states of nature. More specifically, we consider the inflow of water into a hydropower production system, where the states of nature are represented by a “dry”, a “normal” and a “wet” year. The problems may be formulated as non-linear optimisation models where the objective function basically consists of the expected value of the sum of consumers', producers', and authorities' surplus. The models take into account that there are losses in the transmission and distribution of electricity, and that the consumers pay an energy tax on their use of electricity. The consumers are divided into two groups, households and industry. Also, complementarity formulations are used, as these are shown to be more adequate for certain aspects, in particular where risk aversion within a liberalised market context is modelled. For each of eight Northern European countries, the basic results of the models are the installation of new production capacities, the production on old and new production capacities, the electricity prices, and the interchange between the countries. The investment in new production capacity is represented by a single value for each country, while the productions differ in that they depend on natural phenomena, which we refer to as the state of nature and represent by stochastic variables. It was found that in this context it was relatively easy to include stochastic elements in the model. Second, complementarity formulations are preferable to optimisation based modelling for some problem types. Third, results of the stochastic model have natural interpretations, also compared to one or several versions of a deterministic model. And fourth, we have seen that the quantitative results, and hence the implied policy recommendations, may differ significantly from those of deterministic models. We therefore conclude that increased attention should be given to the inclusion of stochastic elements into the modelling of energy systems.

This book focuses on the diversity of electricity reforms in Western Europe, drawing evidence from ten European Union memberstates plus Norway and Switzerland as associate members. The contributors analyse the various ways of introducing competition in the European electricity industries, and consider both the strategies of electricity companies and their behaviour in electricity marketplaces. They also offer an explanation of the differences of reforms by the institutions and the industrial structures of each country which shape the types of marketrules, industrial restructuring and public service regulations which have been adopted.

The European Union has set up indicative targets for its 15 Member States to supply 22.1% of their total electricity consumption using renewable energy resources by 2010. This paper compares two ways to achieve target compliance—either with import of biomass from countries outside the EU or without. The ADMIRE REBUS model combines cost data for electricity producing renewable energy technologies with data on the renewable energy resources available in EU and assesses the effect of the various national support policies for green electricity in the EU countries. The major finding of the study is that increased imports of low-cost biomass will significantly reduce the cost of target compliance, but would hamper the use of energy crops and further development of wind power within the EU. Despite this, increased importation of biomass can be the cost-reducing factor making the target realisable, which would justify promotion of such trade.

When distributed electricity supply surpasses a particular level, it can no longer be ignored in planning and operation of the electricity networks. Therefore, improvements of the regulatory framework of the electricity networks are required along with the growth of the electricity supply from distributed generation. This paper reviews the current regulation of the grids with respect to distributed generation in EU-15 Member States and compares the different systems. Several barriers are identified

Grønne sertifikater er et instrument som skal bidra til å få større omfang av grønne teknologier inn i produksjon av energi. De som produserer energi fra grønne teknologier får tildelt et sertifikat. Det skapes så et marked for dette sertifikatet gjennom å pålegge forbrukerne av energi å kjøpe sertifikater i et visst forhold til omfanget av kjøp av ordinær energi. De grønne produsentene selger energien i det ordinære markedet og sertifikatet i det finansielle markedet som kjøpsplikten skaper. Samlet skal verdien av energien og verdien av sertifikatet tilsvare kostnaden ved å produsere grønn energi på marginen. Grønne sertifikater er et instrument som introduseres i energimarkedene blant annet for å gi et bidrag til å oppfylle en del miljømål på mest mulig effektiv måte, for eksempel redusere utslipp av gasser til luft. En annen begrunnelse kan være at en ønsker å oppfylle miljømålene gjennom noen på forhånd valgte utviklingsretninger - gjennom for eksempel bruk av bare grønne teknologier – og i den sammenheng stimulere til teknisk utvikling av slike jomfruelige teknologier. Et tredje mål kan være at en ønsker å øke forsyningssikkerheten - og da på to måter. Den ene måten er gjennom at mer energi produseres innenlands i stedet for import, den andre måten er at en vil sikre seg ved å satse mer på fornybar energi kontra ikke-fornybar energi. Endelig har også argumenter om økt sysselsetting og stimulans av forskning og utvikling blitt bruk som argumenter for økt bruk av fornybare energikilder gjennom innføring av grønne sertifikater. I denne rapporten drøftes hvordan innføring av slike sertifikater vil virke inn både på omsatt volum i energimarkedet, selgerprisene og kjøperprisene, hvilke velferdseffekter dette har og hvordan velferdseffektene fordeles mellom produsenter og konsumenter. Noen av konklusjonene er ikke opplagte, men tvert imot kan de for mange virke kontraintuitive. Blant annet kan kjøperprisen på energi falle og omsatt mengde øke ved bruk av slike virkemidler. Dette viser i seg selv nødvendigheten av analyser av slike nye virkemidler før en introduserer dem i et eventuelt marked. Rapporten diskuterer også en del praktiske problemer med organisering av slike markeder.

With new technologies blurring the line between generation and consumption in the electricity market, regulation must be re-thought to adequately deal with increasingly complex flexible actors. The dissemination of distributed energy resources and the consequent rise in the elasticity of demand increase the pres-sure to reform distortive regulation. This paper develops grid tariffs and consumption taxes for the electricity market based on the advice of economic theory in order to preserve the incentives for flexible and grid-friendly behaviour, which will be crucial in future energy systems. This not only provides a guide to regulation design, but creates a benchmark against which proposed regulation can be compared.

Denmark is one of the Nordic countries that have set up ambitious long-term targets to reduce GHG emissions from the transport as well as from other sectors. In Denmark the target is to make the transport sector independent of fossil-fuel consumption by 2050 at the latest. This paper compares a likely scenario with two alternative ways to achieve the goal - either with a high percentage of electric vehicles (EV) or with a high percentage of hydrogen (H2) use in the transport sector.The STREAM model - an energy scenario simulating tool - provides insight into different potential energy mixes and calculates socio economic costs. It is used to model the different transport scenarios and their system integration with the electricity and heating sectors.The major findings of this paper are that an increased share of electric vehicles could significantly reduce the socio-economic cost of the system in 2050. Compared to the EV scenario, H2 generation from electrolysis is more flexible and the production can therefore to a larger degree be used to out-balance fluctuating electricity surplus from a high share of wind energy in the power system.H2 production may generate heat that can be used as district heating - replacing traditional heating plants, heat pumps and in some cases combined heat and power plants. Therefore the energy generation mix (electricity and heat) is more affected in the H2 scenario than in the EV scenario.Whether the H2 scenario is more costly to implement than the EV scenario mainly depends on the technological development - especially the efficiency of the electricity to H2 development. It is found that a higher efficiency in the H2 production is more important than a lower level of the capital cost. Therefore, the major driver of a successful H2 scenario is a high efficient and flexible H2 production in 2050. In other words, from a socio-economic view point this paper estimates that the technological path in innovation should have efficiency as its main driver towards 2050.