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Background and objectives: CKD imposes a significant burden on patients and health care providers, particularly upon reaching kidney failure when patients may require KRT. The Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD (DAPA-CKD) trial demonstrated that dapagliflozin, with standard therapy, reduced CKD progression and KRT requirement. The study objective was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin for the treatment of CKD from payer perspectives in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain.Design, setting, participants, & measurements: We constructed a lifetime Markov model to characterize outcomes in patients with CKD on the basis of the DAPA-CKD trial. Health states were defined by eGFR level and KRT type. Direct health care costs and utility values were sourced from published literature and the DAPA-CKD trial, respectively. Costs and benefits were discounted at 3.5% per annum in the United Kingdom and 3% in Germany and Spain.Results: In patients eligible for the DAPA-CKD trial, treatment with dapagliflozin was predicted to reduce rates of CKD progression, with patients predicted to spend 1.7 (95% credibility interval, 0.8 to 2.4) more years in the eGFR range 15–89 ml/min per 1.73 m2 versus standard therapy alone (12.1; 95% credibility interval, 8.9 to 14.1 versus 10.4; 95% credibility interval, 7.7 to 12.4 years). Life expectancy (undiscounted) was correspondingly predicted to increase by 1.7 (95% credibility interval, 0.7 to 2.5) years (15.5; 95% credibility interval, 11.1 to 18.2 versus 13.8; 95% credibility interval, 9.9 to 16.5 years). This in addition to reduced incidence of adverse clinical outcomes, including hospitalization for heart failure, resulted in modeled quality-adjusted life year (discounted) gains between 0.82 (95% credibility interval, 0.38 to 1.18) and 1.00 (95% credibility interval, 0.46 to 1.41). These gains translated to incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of $8280, $17,623, and $11,687 in the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain, respectively, indicating cost-effectiveness at willingness-to-pay thresholds (United Kingdom: $27,510 per quality-adjusted life year; Germany and Spain: $35,503 per quality-adjusted life year).Conclusions: In patients meeting the eligibility requirements for the DAPA-CKD trial, dapagliflozin is likely to be a cost-effective treatment within the UK, German, and Spanish health care systems.Clinical Trial registry name and registration number: Dapagliflozin and Prevention of Adverse Outcomes in CKD (DAPA-CKD), NCT03036150.

Aim To undertake a cost‐effectiveness analysis of dapagliflozin in treating high‐risk patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using both directly observed events in the DECLARE‐TIMI 58 trial and surrogate risk factors to predict endpoints not captured within the trial. Methods An established T2DM model was adapted to integrate survival curves derived from the DECLARE‐TIMI 58 trial, and extrapolated over a lifetime for all‐cause mortality, hospitalization for heart failure, stroke, myocardial infarction, hospitalization for unstable angina, and end‐stage kidney disease. The economic analysis considered the overall DECLARE trial population, as well as reported patient subgroups. Total and incremental costs, life‐years and quality‐adjusted life‐years associated with dapagliflozin versus placebo were estimated from the perspective of the UK healthcare payer. Results In the UK setting, treatment with dapagliflozin compared to placebo was estimated to be dominant, with an expected increase in quality‐adjusted life‐years from 10.43 to 10.48 (+0.06) and a reduction in lifetime total costs from £39 451 to £36 899 (−£2552). Across all patient subgroups, dapagliflozin was estimated to be dominant, with the greatest absolute benefit in the prior heart failure subgroup (incremental lifetime costs −£4150 and quality‐adjusted life‐years +0.11). Conclusions The results of this study demonstrate that dapagliflozin compared to placebo appears to be cost‐effective, when considering evidence reported from the DECLARE‐TIMI 58 trial, at established UK willingness‐to‐pay thresholds. The findings highlight the potential of dapagliflozin to have a meaningful impact in reducing the economic burden of T2DM and its associated complications across a broad T2DM population.

AIM:To estimate the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin added to standard therapy, versus standard therapy only, in patients with heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction, from the perspective of UK, German, and Spanish payers. METHODS AND RESULTS:A lifetime Markov model was built to estimate outcomes in patients with HFrEF. Health states were defined by Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Total Symptom Score, type 2 diabetes and worsening HF events. The incidence of worsening HF and all-cause mortality was estimated using negative binomial regression models and parametric survival analysis, respectively. Direct healthcare costs (2019 British pounds/Euro) and patient-reported outcomes (EQ-5D) were sourced from the existing literature and the Dapagliflozin And Prevention of Adverse-outcomes in Heart Failure trial (DAPA-HF), respectively; the median duration of follow-up in DAPA-HF was 18.2 months (range: 0-27.8). Future costs and effects were discounted at 3.0% for the Spanish and German analyses and 3.5% for the UK analysis. In the UK setting, treatment with dapagliflozin was estimated to increase life-years and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) from 5.62 to 6.20 (+0.58) and 4.13 to 4.61 (+0.48), respectively, and reduce lifetime hospitalisations for HF (925 and 820 events per 1,000 patients for placebo and dapagliflozin, respectively). Similar results were obtained for Germany and Spain. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were £5,822, €5,379 and €9,406/QALY in the UK, Germany and Spain, respectively. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, more than 90% of simulations were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000/QALY in UK and €20,000/QALY in Germany and Spain. CONCLUSION:Dapagliflozin is likely to be a cost-effective treatment for HFrEF in the UK, German and Spanish healthcare systems. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Aims To assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, as an adjunct to insulin in adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) inadequately controlled by insulin alone in the UK setting. Methods A cost-utility analysis was conducted to compare dapagliflozin (5 mg or 10 mg) added to insulin versus insulin monotherapy (standard of care) over a lifetime horizon. Treatment efficacy and safety data were obtained from 52-week results of the DEPICT-1 and DEPICT-2 trials and a network meta-analysis of SGLT2 inhibitors in T1DM. Direct healthcare costs, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated from a UK payer perspective and discounted at 3.5% annually, using the Cardiff T1DM Model. Sensitivity analyses assessed uncertainty in estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Results Dapagliflozin 5 mg was associated with gains of 0.23 life-years and 0.42 QALYs, at an additional cost of £4240 per person; corresponding to an ICER of £10 143 versus standard of care. For dapagliflozin 10 mg, incremental life-years, QALYs and costs were 0.24, 0.49 and £2964, respectively; corresponding to an ICER of £6103 versus standard of care. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, ICER estimates fell below £20 000/QALY in 78% to 90% of simulations. Cost-effectiveness results were sensitive to changes in baseline patient characteristics and treatment effects on glycated haemoglobin; however, ICERs remained below £20 000. Conclusions At cost-effectiveness thresholds conventionally applied in the UK, dapagliflozin as an adjunct to insulin appears to be a cost-effective treatment option for people with T1DM inadequately controlled by insulin alone.

Aims Insulin therapy is indicated for people with Type 1 diabetes mellitus; however, treatment‐related weight gain and hypoglycaemia represent barriers to optimal glycaemic management. This study assessed the health economic value of maintained reductions in HbA1c, BMI and hypoglycaemia incidence among the UK Type 1 diabetes population. Methods The Cardiff Type 1 Diabetes Model was used to estimate lifetime costs, life‐years and quality‐adjusted life‐years (QALYs) for individuals with Type 1 diabetes at different baseline HbA1c, BMI and hypoglycaemic event rates. Results were discounted at 3.5%, and the net monetary benefit associated with improving Type 1 diabetes management was derived at £20 000/QALY gained. Per‐person outputs were inflated to national levels using UK Type 1 diabetes prevalence estimates. Results Modelled subjects with an HbA1c of 86 mmol/mol (10.0%) were associated with discounted lifetime per‐person costs of £23 795; £12 649 of which may be avoided by maintaining an HbA1c of 42 mmol/mol (6.0%). Combined with estimated QALY gains of 2.80, an HbA1c of 42 mmol/mol (6.0%) vs. 86 mmol/mol (10.0%) was associated with a £68 621 per‐person net monetary benefit. Over 1 year, unit reductions in BMI produced £120 per‐person net monetary benefit, and up to £197 for the avoidance of one non‐severe hypoglyceamic event. Conclusions Maintained reductions in HbA1c significantly alleviate the burden associated with Type 1 diabetes in the UK. Given the influence of weight and hypoglycaemia on health economic outcomes, they must also be key considerations when assessing the value of Type 1 diabetes technologies in clinical practice., What's new? This study demonstrated the burden of inadequate Type 1 diabetes management, and quantified the value of reducing HbA1c, weight and hypoglycaemia frequency among the UK Type 1 diabetes population.Significant cost savings, quality‐adjusted life‐year gains and net monetary benefit were predicted in those who achieve HbA1c targets recommended in national guidelines; nevertheless, any incremental improvement in glycaemic management substantially reduced the burden of Type 1 diabetes mellitus on individuals and healthcare systems.Given the influence of weight and hypoglycaemia on health economic outcomes, these factors should also be key considerations when assessing the value of Type 1 diabetes technologies.

Aims Time-dependent HbA1c trajectories in health economic models of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are typically informed by the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS). However, this approach may not accurately predict HbA1c progression in patients who do not conform to the demographic profile of the original UKPDS cohort. This study aimed to develop an alternative mathematical model (MM) to simulate HbA1c progression in T2DM. Materials and methods A systematic literature review identified studies, published between 2005 and 2015, that reported HbA1c in adult T2DM patients over a minimum duration of 18 months. Pooled data from eligible studies were used to develop an alternative MM equation for HbA1c progression, which was then contrasted with the UKPDS 68 progression equation in illustrative scenarios. Results A total of 68 studies were eligible for data extraction (mean follow-up time 4.1 years). HbA1c progression was highly heterogeneous across studies, varying with baseline HbA1c, treatment group and patient age. The MM equation was fitted with parameters for mean baseline HbA1c (8.3%), initial change in HbA1c (−0.62%) and upper quartile of maximum observed HbA1c (9.3%). Differences in HbA1c trajectories between the MM and UKPDS approaches altered the timing of therapy escalation in illustrative scenarios. Conclusions The MM represents an alternative approach to simulate HbA1c trajectories in T2DM models, as UKPDS data may not adequately reflect the heterogeneity of HbA1c profiles observed in clinical studies. However, the choice of approach should ultimately be determined by the characteristics of individual patients under consideration and the clinical face validity of the modelled trajectories.

Aims The efficacy and safety of sodium–glucose linked transporters (SGLT2s) plus metformin and a sulfonylurea (MET + SU) for the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in patients who fail to achieve glycemic control with MET + SU, relative to other triple therapies licensed in the EU, were estimated. Methods A systematic literature review and network meta-analysis (NMA) of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) involving anti-diabetes treatments added to MET + SU were conducted. Results: Of 2236 abstracts identified through a systematic literature review, 30 RCTs published between 2003 and 2013 were included. RCTs ranged from 12 to 52 weeks in duration, included 28 to 1274 patients, were of parallel design, and most were open-label. Comparators included placebo (reference treatment), SGLT2 inhibitors, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors, thiazolidinediones (TZDs), alpha-glucosidase inhibitors (AGIs), meglitinides, glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) analogues, and basal, bolus, and biphasic insulin, all added on to MET + SU, as well as basal and biphasic insulin added to MET and monotherapy. The mean change (%) in HbA1c levels compared to placebo was -0.86 for SGLT2 inhibitors, −0.68 for DPP-4 inhibitors, −0.93 for TZDs, and −1.07 for GLP-1 analogues, respectively. Only SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP-1 analogues led to a weight loss (−1.71 kg and −1.14 kg, respectively) and decrease in systolic blood pressure (SBP; −3.73 mmHg and −2.90 mmHg, respectively), while all other treatments showed either an increase or no changes in weight or SBP. Conclusion SGLT2 inhibitors are at least as effective as other classes of antidiabetic agents at controlling HbA1c levels, while providing the additional benefits of weight loss and reducing SBP. Additionally, since the risk of hypoglycemia is similar or reduced with SGLT2 inhibitors, patients do not have to trade off efficacy for tolerability. Similar findings were observed for GLP-1 analogues.

Aims To assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin, a sodium–glucose co-transporter–2 (SGLT–2) inhibitor, compared with a sulfonylurea, when added to metformin for treatment of UK people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus inadequately controlled on metformin alone. Methods Clinical inputs sourced from a head-to-head randomized controlled trial (RCT) informed the Cardiff diabetes decision model. Risk equations developed from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) were used in conjunction with the clinical inputs to predict disease progression and the incidence of micro- and macrovascular complications over a lifetime horizon. Cost and utility data were generated to present the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for both treatment arms, and sensitivity and scenario analyses were conducted to assess the impact of uncertainty on the final model results. Results The dapagliflozin treatment arm was associated with a mean incremental benefit of 0.467 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.420; 0.665], with an incremental cost of £1246 (95% CI: £613; £1637). This resulted in an ICER point estimate of £2671 per QALY gained. Incremental costs were shown to be insensitive to parameter variation, with only treatment-related weight change having a significant impact on the incremental QALYs. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis determined that dapagliflozin had a 100% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20 000 per QALY. Conclusions Dapagliflozin in combination with metformin was shown to be a cost-effective treatment option compared with sulfonylurea from a UK healthcare perspective for people with Type 2 diabetes mellitus who are inadequately controlled on metformin monotherapy.

Objectives. Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) clinical guidelines focus on optimizing glucose control, with therapy escalation classically initiated within a “failure-based” regimen. Within many diabetes models, HbA1c therapy escalation thresholds play a pivotal role, controlling duration of therapy and, consequently, incremental costs and benefits. The objective of this study was to assess the relationship between therapy escalation threshold and time to therapy escalation on predicted cost-effectiveness of T2DM treatments. Methods. This study used the Cardiff Diabetes Model to illustrate the relationship between costs and health outcomes associated with first-, second-, and third-line therapy as a function of time on each. Data from routine clinical practice were used to contrast predicted costs and health outcomes associated with guideline therapy escalation thresholds compared with clinical practice. The impact of baseline HbA1c and therapy escalation thresholds on cost-effectiveness was investigated, comparing a sodium/glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor v. sulfonylurea added to metformin monotherapy. Results. Lower thresholds are associated with a shorter time spent on monotherapy, ranging from 1.1 years (escalation at 6.5%) to 13 years (escalation at 9.0%) and an increase in total lifetime cost of therapy. Treatment-related disutility is minimized with higher thresholds because progression to insulin is delayed. Using metformin combined with either dapagliflozin or a sulfonylurea to illustrate lower baseline HbA1c and/or higher therapy escalation thresholds was associated with increased cost-effectiveness ratios, driven by a longer duration of therapy. Discussion. A marked difference in treatment cost-effectiveness was demonstrated when comparing routine clinical practice with guideline-advocated therapy escalation. This is important to both health care professionals and the wider health economic community with respect to understanding the true cost-effectiveness profile of any particular T2DM therapy option.

Recently, consideration was given to the impact of dose selection strategies in phase IIb on the overall success of drug development programs. A natural next step is to simultaneously optimize design aspects of both phase IIB and phase III. We used type 2 diabetes as an example, including realistic regulatory and commercial scenarios for this indication. The expected net present value (eNPV) has been selected as the primary outcome because it naturally accommodates optimization, providing an explicit trade-off between the probability of success (PoS) and time delays and trial costs. Our findings are that larger studies and/or implementation of an adaptive design over a fixed design in phase IIb provide more precise dose selection and reduce the bias of treatment effects and uncertainty in the estimated eNPV within the range of sample sizes that we examined. Developers also have to ensure that dose selection criteria are consistent with development strategy and objectives.

Background:\ud \ud The impact of cardiovascular complications on health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) in type 2 diabetes mellitus has not been clearly established. Using EQ5D utility data from SAVOR-TIMI 53, a large phase IV trial of saxagliptin versus placebo, we quantified the impact of cardiovascular and other major events on HRQoL.\ud \ud Methods:\ud \ud EQ5D utilities were recorded annually and following myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke. Utilities among patients experiencing major cardiovascular events were analyzed using linear mixed-effects regression, adjusting for baseline characteristics (including EQ5D utility), and compared to those not experiencing major cardiovascular events. Mean utility decrements with standard errors (SE) were estimated as the difference in utility before and after the event.\ud \ud Findings:\ud \ud The mean EQ5D utility of the sample was 0.776 at all time points, and did not differ by treatment. However, mean baseline and month 12 utilities among those with a major cardiovascular event were 0.751 and 0.714. Mean utilities were 0.691 within 3 months of, 0.691 3–6 months after, and 0.714 6–12 months after, a major cardiovascular event. Cardiovascular event-specific utility decrements were 0.05 (0.007) for major cardiovascular events over the same time periods. Decrements of 0.051 (0.012; myocardial infarction), 0.111 (0.022; stroke), 0.065 (0.014; hospitalization for heart failure) 0.019 (0.024; hospitalization for hypoglycemia) were estimated; all coefficients were statistically significant.\ud \ud Interpretation:\ud \ud Consistent with clinical outcomes reported elsewhere, saxagliptin did not improve HRQoL. Cardiovascular complications were associated with significantly decreased HRQoL, most substantial earlier after the event.

Aims Diagnoses of Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) in Europe appear to be on the rise. Therefore it is imperative that researchers understand the potential impact that increases in prevalence could have on the affected individuals as well as on society as a whole. Accordingly this study examined the humanistic and economic burden of T1DM in patients relative to those without the condition across a number of health outcomes including health status, work productivity loss, activity impairment, and healthcare resource use. Methods Survey data from a large, representative sample of EU adults (The EU National Health and Wellness Survey) were examined. Results Results suggest that overall burden is higher for those diagnosed with T1DM than respondents without diabetes and that burden increases as complications associated with T1DM increase. Conclusions Taken together, these results suggest that treatment strategies for T1DM should balance clinical, humanistic, and economic burden and patients should be educated on the role of complications in disease outcomes.

Aim The objective of this study was to investigate the cost-effectiveness of saxagliptin (Onglyza ® ), a DPP-4 inhibitor, plus metformin compared with a sulphonylurea (SU) (Glipizide) plus metformin in Swedish patients not well controlled on metformin alone. Methods Data from a 52-week clinical trial comparing saxagliptin and glipizide in combination with metformin was used in a simulation model to estimate long term complications in a cohort of type 2 diabetes patients. The model estimates the incidence of microvascular and macrovascular complications, diabetes-specific mortality, all-cause mortality, and ultimately, costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) associated with the investigated treatment strategies. Costs and QALYs were estimated for a lifetime time horizon. Results Compared with SU+metformin, the cost per QALY gained with saxagliptin+metformin is approximately SEK 91,000. Patients on saxagliptin+metformin gain 0.10 QALYs on average, at an incremental cost of around SEK 9500. The cost-effectiveness results were robust to various sensitivity analyses. Conclusions This study demonstrates that, over a patient's lifetime, the addition of saxagliptin to metformin is associated with improvements in quality-adjusted life years compared with SU in patients with type 2 diabetes. Saxagliptin treatment is a cost-effective treatment alternative for type 2 diabetes in patients not well-controlled on metformin alone.

The lack of adequate glycaemic control for patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), especially with existing second-line therapies, represents an unmet medical need. Of the newer therapies, the incretin-based medicines, such as saxagliptin, look promising to consolidate second-line pharmacotherapy.This study evaluates the long-term economic consequences of saxagliptin versus sulfonylurea (glipizide) as second-line therapy when used in combination with metformin after failure of monotherapy treatment with metformin, in patients with T2DM in Germany.A published discrete event simulation model with a fixed-time increment was used to model the effects of different treatment scenarios over a 40-year (life-) time horizon. Disease progression was modelled using evidence from the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) 68. The treatment sequence matched that of published German guidelines, and efficacy and safety data were derived from published sources. The model assumes that quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) are affected by complications, hypoglycaemic events and weight change over a lifetime. Costs were specific to the German setting, where sulfonylureas are generic. Costs and effects were discounted annually at 3%. The extended perspective of the national sick funds was adopted, and recommendations from the Institute for Quality and Efficiency in Health Care (IQWiG) were considered.In the base-case analysis, treatment with saxagliptin plus metformin was associated with a lower incidence of both symptomatic and severe hypoglycaemic events, resulting in an incremental benefit of 0.12 QALYs and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €13,931 per QALY gained compared with sulfonylurea plus metformin (year of costing 2009). Modest reductions in all macro- and microvascular complications were seen in those receiving saxagliptin plus metformin compared with sulfonylurea plus metformin. Sensitivity analysis showed that treatment-related weight changes, as a risk factor for complications, represent the most influential driver of cost effectiveness.The study demonstrated improved outcomes with saxagliptin at a cost that would likely be considered acceptable in the German setting. Furthermore, the findings of the sensitivity analysis suggest that the results are robust to various assumptions concerning input variables and modelling assumptions.

Background Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is a chronic, progressive condition where the primary treatment goal is to maintain control of glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c). In order for healthcare decision makers to ensure patients receive the highest standard of care within the available budget, the clinical benefits of each treatment option must be balanced against the economic consequences. The aim of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin, the first-in-class sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, compared with a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP-4i), when added to metformin for the treatment of patients with T2DM inadequately controlled on metformin alone. Methods The previously published and validated Cardiff diabetes model was used as the basis for this economic evaluation, with treatment effect parameters sourced from a systematic review and network meta-analysis. Costs, derived from a UK healthcare system perspective, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), were used to present the final outcome as an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) over a lifetime horizon. Univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) were carried out to assess uncertainty in the model results. Results Compared with DPP-4i, dapagliflozin was associated with a mean incremental benefit of 0.032 QALYs (95 % confidence interval [CI]: −0.022, 0.140) and with an incremental cost of £216 (95 % CI: £-258, £795). This resulted in an ICER point estimate of £6,761 per QALY gained. Sensitivity analysis determined incremental costs to be insensitive to variation in most parameters, with only the treatment effect on weight having a notable impact on the incremental QALYs; however, there were no scenarios which raised the ICER above £15,000 per QALY. The PSA estimated that dapagliflozin had an 85 % probability of being cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per QALY gained. Conclusions Dapagliflozin in combination with metformin was shown to be a cost-effective treatment option from a UK healthcare system perspective for patients with T2DM who are inadequately controlled on metformin alone.

Background: Simulation techniques are well suited to modelling diseases yet can be computationally intensive. This study explores the relationship between modelled effect size, statistical precision, and efficiency gains achieved using variance reduction and an executable programming language. Methods: A published simulation model designed to model a population with type 2 diabetes mellitus based on the UKPDS 68 outcomes equations was coded in both Visual Basic for Applications (VBA) and C++. Efficiency gains due to the programming language were evaluated, as was the impact of antithetic variates to reduce variance, using predicted QALYs over a 40-year time horizon. Results: The use of C++ provided a 75- and 90-fold reduction in simulation run time when using mean and sampled input values, respectively. For a series of 50 one-way sensitivity analyses, this would yield a total run time of 2 minutes when using C++, compared with 155 minutes for VBA when using mean input values. The use of antithetic variates typically resulted in a 53% reduction in the number of simulation replications and run time required. When drawing all input values to the model from distributions, the use of C++ and variance reduction resulted in a 246-fold improvement in computation time compared with VBA — for which the evaluation of 50 scenarios would correspondingly require 3.8 hours (C++) and approximately 14.5 days (VBA). Conclusions: The choice of programming language used in an economic model, as well as the methods for improving precision of model output can have profound effects on computation time. When constructing complex models, more computationally efficient approaches such as C++ and variance reduction should be considered; concerns regarding model transparency using compiled languages are best addressed via thorough documentation and model validation.

Aim: The attainment of near-normal glycaemia is an important feature in reducing complications in people with type 2 diabetes. Current treatment pathways advocate a failure-driven therapy algorithm for blood-glucose lowering that leads to the sequential addition of therapies. The addition and combination of multiple blood-glucose lowering agents may be associated with significant side effects, such as weight gain and hypoglycaemia, resulting in a detrimental quality of life. The objective of this study is to quantify the overall costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) associated with therapy escalation via oral only treatment strategies with different adverse event profiles as a function of target HbA1c achievement. Methods: A previously published model was adapted to run as a non-terminating simulation model. The model is designed to evaluate the cost utility of treatment strategies in a population of type 2 diabetes mellitus patients. Model outputs include incidence of micro- and macrovascular complications, hypoglycaemia and diabetes-specific and all-cause mortality. Results: The total number of vascular events predicted by the model varied little across the four treatment strategies because of the glycaemic profile associated with each therapy strategy being similar. The strategy with sequential addition of thiazolidinediones (TZDs) and sulphonylureas (SUs) to metformin (MF) was associated with greatest predicted hypoglycaemia burden. The addition of SU and dipeptidyl peptidase (DPP-4) inhibitors to MF was associated with the highest estimated QALYs. Conclusions: A treatment strategy involving the sequential addition of SU and TZD to first-line MF therapy is associated with the lowest cost and lowest gain across a population, whereas addition of TZD and SU sequentially to first-line MF therapy resulted in the highest cost and incrementally less QALY gain when compared with treatment strategies involving the addition of a DPP-4 inhibitor and SU to first-line MF (irrespective of the treatment sequence) that were associated with both less cost and greatest QALY gain.

Background For end-users of diabetes models that include UKPDS 82 risk equations, an important question is how well these new equations perform. Consequently, the principal objective of this study was to validate the UKPDS 82 risk equations, embedded within an established type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) model, the Cardiff Diabetes Model, to contemporary T2DM outcomes studies. Methods A total of 100 validation endpoints were simulated across treatment arms of twelve pivotal T2DM outcomes studies, simulation cohorts representing each validation study’s cohort profile were generated and intensive and conventional treatment arms were defined in the Cardiff Diabetes Model. Results Overall the validation coefficient of determination was similar between both sets of risk equations: UKPDS 68, R2 = 0.851; UKPDS 82, R2 = 0.870. Results stratified by internal and external validation studies produced MAPE of 43.77 and 37.82%, respectively, when using UKPDS 82, and MAPE of 40.49 and 53.92%, respectively when using UKPDS 68. Areas of lack of fit, as measured by MAPE were inconsistent between sets of equations with ACCORD demonstrating a noteworthy lack of fit with UKPPDS 68 (MAPE = 170.88%) and the ADDITION study for UKPDS 82 (MAPE = 89.90%). Conclusions This study has demonstrated that the UKPDS 82 equations exhibit similar levels of external validity to the UKPDS 68 equations with the additional benefit of enabling more diabetes related endpoints to be modeled.

The aim of this study was to determine the mean costs and outcomes associated with modifiable risk factors in patients with type 2 diabetes and to determine equivalent changes to these risk factors in terms of financial costs and health outcomes.The Cardiff Stochastic Simulation Cost-Utility Model (DiabForecaster), which evolved from the Eastman model, was used to follow a cohort of 10 000 patients over 20 years.Costs were affected most significantly by changes in the total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol (Total-C:HDL-C) ratio and in HbA(1c). Unit increases in Total-C:HDL-C increased discounted costs by pound 200 per patient; for ratios8 units, unit increases led to cost increases of pound 300 per patient. Unit increases in HbA(1c) increased per patient discounted costs from pound 200 (5-6%) up to pound 2900 (10-11%). Similar patterns were observed for QALYs. Estimates of equivalence showed that a 1% reduction in HbA(1c) was equivalent to an 0.4 increment in QALYs, which was equivalent to a reduction of 44 mmHg in SBP, 18.2 mg/dL in HDL, 100 mg/dL in total cholesterol or 1.8 units of Total-C:HDL-C ratio. A 1% reduction in HbA(1c) was also equivalent to pound 108 less cost, which was equivalent to a 13.0 mmHg decrease in SBP or a 0.57 unit decrease in the Total-C:HDL-C ratio.This model provides reliable utility estimates for diabetic complications and may eliminate uncertainty in cost-effectiveness analyses of treatment. These data also provide a novel way of comparing the value of treatments that have multiple effects.

Economic evaluations of new diabetes therapies rely heavily upon the UK Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) equations for prediction of cardiovascular events; however, concerns persist regarding their relevance to current clinical practice and appropriate use in populations other than newly diagnosed patients. This study refits the UKPDS 68 event equations, using contemporary data describing low- and intermediate-risk patients. Anonymized patient data describing demographics, risk factors and incidence of cardiovascular and microvascular events were extracted from The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database over the 10-year period from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2009. Following multiple imputation of missing values, accelerated failure-time Weibull regression equations were refitted to produce new coefficients for each risk group. Discriminatory performance was assessed and compared with both UKPDS 68 and UKPDS 82 risk equations, and the implication of coefficient choice within an economic evaluation was assessed using the Cardiff type 2 diabetes model. When applied to patient-level data, the three sets of coefficients (UKPDS, THIN low-risk and intermediate-risk) lead to fairly consistent predictions of the 5-year risk of events. Exceptions include lower predicted rates of myocardial infarction and higher rates of ischaemic heart disease, congestive heart failure and end-stage renal disease with both sets of revised THIN coefficients compared with UKPDS. Over a modelled lifetime, the coefficients derived from the low-risk data predict fewer total cardiovascular events compared with UKPDS, while those from the intermediate-risk data predict a greater number. The areas under the receiver–operating characteristic curves demonstrated a marginal improvement in the discriminatory performance of the refitted equations. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio associated with dapagliflozin versus sulphonylurea in addition to metformin changed from £7,708 to £7,519 and £6,906 per QALY gained, using the THIN intermediate- and low-risk coefficients, respectively. The results suggest that while the UKPDS equations perform best in newly diagnosed patients, they may overpredict the lifetime risk in this group and underpredict it in patients with more advanced diabetes. Implementation of the revised coefficients will result in different absolute numbers of predicted diabetes-related events; however, they are not expected to significantly affect the conclusions of economic modelling.

Introduction Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) is an increasing problem worldwide and a leading risk factor for cardiovascular disease. As beta cell function declines, the management of T2DM typically comprises of escalations in treatment from diet and exercise to oral therapies and eventually insulin. Treatment algorithms based on the attainment of blood glucose targets may not account for changes in other cardiovascular risk factors. The objective of this study is to describe unmet clinical need, defined as failure to reduce weight or meet targets for blood pressure, total cholesterol or glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels. Methods Anonymized UK patient data for those (1) initiating oral antidiabetic drug (OAD) monotherapy, (2) escalating to dual therapy, (3) escalating to triple therapy, and (4) escalating to insulin therapy over the study period (01/01/2005–31/12/2009) were obtained from The Health Improvement Network (THIN). Changes in risk factors were evaluated before and after therapy escalation, and the attainment of targets, assessed at the last recorded measurement, as follows: HbA1c

Aims The aim of this study was to assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin (Forxiga ® ) added to metformin, compared with sulfonylurea (SU) added to metformin, in Nordic Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients inadequately controlled on metformin. Methods Data from a 52-week clinical trial comparing dapagliflozin and SU in combination with metformin was used in a Cardiff simulation model to estimate long term diabetes-related complications in a cohort of T2DM patients. Costs and QALYs were calculated from a healthcare provider perspective and estimated over a patient's lifetime. Results Compared with metformin+SU, the cost per QALY gained with dapagliflozin+metformin was €7944 in Denmark, €5424 in Finland, €4769 in Norway, and €6093 in Sweden. Metformin+dapagliflozin was associated with QALY gains ranging from 0.236 in Norway to 0.278 in Sweden and incremental cost ranging from €1125 in Norway to €1962 in Denmark. Results were robust across both one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Results were driven by weight changes associated with each treatment. Conclusions Results indicate that metformin+dapagliflozin is associated with gains in QALY compared with metformin+SU in Nordic T2DM patients inadequately controlled on metformin. Dapagliflozin treatment is a cost-effective treatment alternative for Type 2 diabetes in all four Nordic countries.

Many patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) on insulin therapy have inadequate glycaemic control. In such cases, Dutch guidelines recommend unlimited up-titration of insulin, yet in practice many patients never reach their glycaemic target. Clinical evidence shows that dapagliflozin—a highly selective sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitor—meets a need for these patients, i.e. by reducing glycated haemoglobin levels and bodyweight. We estimated the cost effectiveness and cost utility of adding dapagliflozin to insulin compared with not adding dapagliflozin in patients with T2DM who have inadequate glycaemic control while on insulin. The cost effectiveness of dapagliflozin was estimated using the Cardiff Diabetes Model, using direct comparative efficacy data from a randomized placebo-controlled trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00673231). In this trial, up-titration of insulin was allowed in case of severe glycaemic imbalance. Risk factor progression and the occurrence of future vascular events were estimated using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study 68 risk equations. Costs and utilities were derived from the literature. The analysis was conducted from the societal perspective, simulating the remaining lifetime of the patients. The overall incidence of macro- and microvascular complications was lower, and life expectancy was greater (19.43 versus 19.35 life-years [LYs]) in patients receiving dapagliflozin than in those not receiving dapagliflozin. Patients in the dapagliflozin arm obtained an incremental benefit of 0.42 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The lifetime incremental cost per patient in the dapagliflozin arm was €2,293, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €27,779 per LY gained and an incremental cost–utility ratio of €5,502 per QALY gained. Sensitivity and scenario analyses showed that the results were insensitive to variations in modelling assumptions and input variables. Dapagliflozin in combination with insulin was estimated to be a cost-effective treatment option for patients with T2DM whose insulin treatment regimen does not provide adequate glycaemic control in a Dutch healthcare setting.

Aims Therapy-related consequences of treatment for type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), such as weight gain and hypoglycaemia, act as a barrier to attaining optimal glycaemic control, indirectly influencing the incidence of vascular complications and associated morbidity and mortality. This study quantifies the individual and combined contribution of changes in hypoglycaemia frequency, weight and HbA1c to predicted quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) within a T1DM population. Materials and methods We describe the Cardiff Type 1 Diabetes (CT1DM) Model, originally informed by the Diabetes Control and Complications Trial (DCCT) and updated with the Epidemiology of Diabetes Interventions and Complications (EDIC) study and Swedish National Diabetes Registry for microvascular and cardiovascular complications respectively. We report model validation results and the QALY impact of HbA1c, weight and hypoglycaemia changes. Results Validation results demonstrated coefficients of determination for clinical endpoints of R2 = 0.863 (internal R2 = 0.999; external R2 = 0.823), costs R2 = 0.980 and QALYs R2 = 0.951. Achieving and maintaining a 1% HbA1c reduction was estimated to provide 0.61 additional discounted QALYs. Weight changes of ±1kg, ±2kg or ±3kg led to discounted QALY changes of ±0.03, ±0.07 and ±0.10 respectively, while modifying hypoglycaemia frequency by -10%, -20% or -30% resulted in changes of -0.05, -0.11 and -0.17. The differences in discounted costs, life-years and QALYs associated with HbA1c 6% versus 10% were -£19,037, 2.49 and 2.35 respectively. Conclusions Using a model updated with contemporary epidemiological data, this study presents an outcome-focused perspective to assessing the health economic consequences of differing levels of glycaemic control in T1DM with and without weight and hypoglycaemia effects.

Critiques of cost-effectiveness modelling in type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) are scarce and are often undertaken in combination with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) models. However, T1DM is a separate disease, and it is therefore important to appraise modelling methods in T1DM.This review identified published economic models in T1DM and provided an overview of the characteristics and capabilities of available models, thus enabling a discussion of best-practice modelling approaches in T1DM.A systematic review of Embase(®), MEDLINE(®), MEDLINE(®) In-Process, and NHS EED was conducted to identify available models in T1DM. Key conferences and health technology assessment (HTA) websites were also reviewed. The characteristics of each model (e.g. model structure, simulation method, handling of uncertainty, incorporation of treatment effect, data for risk equations, and validation procedures, based on information in the primary publication) were extracted, with a focus on model capabilities.We identified 13 unique models. Overall, the included studies varied greatly in scope as well as in the quality and quantity of information reported, but six of the models (Archimedes, CDM [Core Diabetes Model], CRC DES [Cardiff Research Consortium Discrete Event Simulation], DCCT [Diabetes Control and Complications Trial], Sheffield, and EAGLE [Economic Assessment of Glycaemic control and Long-term Effects of diabetes]) were the most rigorous and thoroughly reported. Most models were Markov based, and cohort and microsimulation methods were equally common. All of the more comprehensive models employed microsimulation methods. Model structure varied widely, with the more holistic models providing a comprehensive approach to microvascular and macrovascular events, as well as including adverse events. The majority of studies reported a lifetime horizon, used a payer perspective, and had the capability for sensitivity analysis.Several models have been developed that provide useful insight into T1DM modelling. Based on a review of the models identified in this study, we identified a set of 'best in class' methods for the different technical aspects of T1DM modelling.

Background: Current guidelines for the management of type 2 diabetes advocate the attainment of sustained near normal glycaemia levels. Metformin is widely accepted as the treatment of choice for the initiation of pharmacotherapy; however, secondary failure of oral monotherapy occurs in 60% of patients resulting in the need for multiple pharmacotherapies. Therapy-related consequences of treatment, such as weight gain and hypoglycaemia impact on the cost-effectiveness profile of various agents. We therefore sought to ascertain the respective contribution of hypoglycaemia, weight change and improved blood glucose control on second-line therapy options added to metformin. Methods: This study uses a simulation model designed to evaluate the cost utility of new therapies in a population of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Standard model outputs include incidence of micro- and macrovascular complications and diabetes-specific and all-cause mortality. Results: The mean discounted quality-adjusted life year (QALY) predicted by the model was 12.31 years. Reducing Glycosylated haemoglobin (HbA1c) by 1% gave a predicted gain of 0.413 QALYs per patient. A 3-kg weight loss and 30% reduction in hypoglycaemia frequency produced a combined QALY gain of 0.355, whereas the reverse gave a QALY decrement of 0.356. Conclusions: The results of this analysis quantify the QALY decrement that may result from adverse therapy effects. The beneficial effects of improved glycaemic control on QALYs may be offset by characteristic treatment-specific adverse effects, such as weight gain and hypoglycaemia frequency.