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Op grond van theoretisch onderzoek wordt de vraag beantwoord of de maatregel van vreemdelingenbewaring met de inwerkingtreding van de Wet terugkeer en vreemdelingenbewaring in overeenstemming is met het ultimum remedium principe en het beginsel van minimale beperkingen. Ten aanzien van het beginsel van minimale beperkingen ligt de focus op de maatregelen van visitatie en isolatie. Als toetsingskader dient het Europees Verdrag voor de Rechten van de Mens en het Unierecht. Tevens wordt aandacht geschonken aan de historie van vreemdelingenbewaring.Het blijkt dat de wetgever het ultimum remedium principe betekenis geeft door een naadloze verbinding met de Terugkeerrichtlijn te leggen. Het beginsel van minimale beperkingen wordt gediend door het toepassingsbereik van de visitatiemaatregel in te perken tot het strikt noodzakelijke en de visuele schouw te vervangen door röntgentechniek. Daarnaast wordt winst geboekt door binnen vreemdelingenbewaring een regimedifferentiatie te introduceren, waardoor het gebruik van de isolatiemaatregel tot een minimum wordt teruggedrongen. Geconcludeerd is dat de wet in lijn is met het ultimum remedium principe en het beginsel van minimale beperkingen.

The main rivers of Bangladesh are boon and bane for the country. They supply water and fertile sediments allowing multiple crops per year, hundreds of waterways for navigation, rich fish stock and habitat diversity. But especially the dynamic, unpredictable Brahmaputra influenced rivers erode fertile floodplain land with long established settlements, flood embankments, roads, and all other communal infrastructure. The high sediment load and resulting continuous shifting of river courses impedes navigation and the inflows into the important distributary offtakes. Stabilization of these largest and most unpredictable rivers on the planet presents a huge challenge. Bangladesh has systematically developed the technology and experience to stabilize longer reaches of riverbanks and has commenced towards a holistic approach to stabilizing the Brahmaputra System from the Assam border to the Bay of Bengal. Current developments are concentrated in the Flood and Riverbank Erosion Risk Management Investment Program, from which we present three recent key developments. First, we demonstrate phased gradual stabilization of the 60 km reach just upstream of the confluence with the Ganges following an adaptive approach, responding to massive riverbank erosion but also seizing the opportunities offered by the rivers during particular years towards systematic stabilization and land reclamation. Second, we show how an array of morphological prediction methods and mathematical models, developed over the past 25 years, is used for the planning and the design of interventions for stabilization. Third, we demonstrate our experiences with an innovative construction method for long guiding revetments, consisting of sand-filled geo-textile bags under water. Additionally, we discuss the feasibility, costs, benefits, environmental impacts and social impacts of river stabilization also with special attention to the pivoting role of stable distributary offtakes in the context of a wider river management plan.

Many of the traditional air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, offering a cost-effective potential for simultaneous improvements of traditional air pollution problems and climate change. A methodology has been developed to extend the RAINS integrated assessment model to explore synergies and trade-offs between the control of greenhouse gases and air pollution. With this extension, the GAINS (GHG-Air pollution INteraction and Synergies) model will allow the assessment of emission control costs for the six greenhouse gases covered under the Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O and the three F-gases) together with the emissions of air pollutants SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3 and PM. This report describes the first implementation (Version 1.0) of the model extension model to incorporate CO2 emissions. GAINS Version 1.0 assesses 230 options for reducing CO2 emissions from the various source categories, both through structural changes in the energy system (fuel substitution, energy efficiency improvements) and through end-of-pipe measures (e.g., carbon capture). GAINS quantifies for 43 countries/regions in Europe country-specific application potentials of the various options in the different sectors of the economy, and estimates the societal resource costs of these measures. Mitigation potentials are estimated in relation to an exogenous baseline projection that is considered to reflect current planning, and are derived from a comparison of scenario results for a range of carbon prices obtained from energy models. A critical element of the GAINS assessment refers to the assumptions on CO2 mitigation measures for which negative life cycle costs are calculated. There are a number of options for which the accumulated (and discounted over time) cost savings from reduced energy consumption outweigh their investments, even if private interest rates are used. If the construction of the baseline projection assumes a cost-effectiveness rationale, such measures would be autonomously adopted by the economic actors, even in the absence of any CO2 mitigation interest. In practice, however, it can be observed that various market imperfections impede the autonomous penetration. Due to the substantial CO2 mitigation potential that is associated with such negative cost options, projections of future CO2 emissions and even more of the available CO2 mitigation potentials are highly sensitive towards assumptions on their autonomous penetration rates occurring in the baseline projection. Assuming that all negative cost measures would form an integral part of the Energy Outlook developed in 2003 by the Directorate General for Energy and Transport of the European Commission that has been developed with a cost-minimizing energy model, CO2 emissions in Europe would approach 1990 levels in 2020, even in absence of any specific climate policy. Beyond that, GAINS estimates for 2020 an additional reduction potential of 20 percent. With full application of all mitigation measures contained in the GAINS database, the power sector could reduce its CO2 emissions by 550 Mt, the transport sector by 400 Mt, industry by 190 Mt, and the residential and commercial sector by 50 Mt below the baseline projection. Total costs of all these measures would amount to approximately 90 billion Euro/year.

Many of the traditional air pollutants and greenhouse gases have common sources, offering a cost-effective potential for simultaneous improvements for both traditional air pollution problems as well as climate change. A methodology has been developed to extend the RAINS integrated assessment model to explore synergies and trade-offs between the control of greenhouse gases and air pollution. With this extension, the RAINS model allows now the assessment of emission control costs for the six greenhouse gases covered under the Kyoto Protocol (CO2, CH4, N2O and the three F-gases) together with the emissions of air pollutants SO2, NOX, VOC, NH3 AND PM. In the first phase of the study, emissions, costs and control potentials for the six greenhouse gases covered in the Kyoto Protocol have been estimated and implemented in the RAINS model. Emission estimates are based on methodologies and emission factors proposed by the IPCC emission reporting guidelines. The large number of control options for greenhouse gases have been grouped into approximately 150 packages of measures and implemented in the RAINS model for the European countries. These control options span a wide range of cost-effectiveness. There a re certain advanced technical measures with moderate costs, and certain measures exist for which the economic assessment suggests even negative costs, if major side impacts (cost savings) are calculated. Illustrative example calculations clearly demonstrate that conclusions on the cost-effectiveness of emission reduction strategies are crucially depending on the boundaries of the analysis. The net cost of greenhouse gas control strategies are significantly lower if the immediate cost-savings from avoided air pollution control costs are taken into consideration. For a 15 percent reduction of the CO2 emissions from the power sector in the EU, avoided pollution control costs could compensate two third of the CO2 control costs. Depending on the design of the control strategy, net costs of greenhouse gas mitigation could even be negative, which is in stark contrast to conclusions for a CO2 only strategy. However, there are certain greenhouse gas mitigation measures, such as increased use of biomass that could deteriorate the negative impacts of air pollution, while yielding very little economic synergies. A combined approach towards greenhouse gas mitigation and air pollution control would not only reveal economic synergies, but also harness additional environmental benefits. Even in a situation with stringent emission control requirements for air pollution as it is required by the EU legislation, modifications in fuel use geared towards reductions of greenhouse gases could lead as a side impact to significant reductions in the residual emissions of air pollutants. The economic benefits of such "windfall emission reductions" could be substantial. The extended RAINS model framework will offer a tool to systematically investigate such economic and environmental synergies between greenhouse gas mitigation and air pollution control while avoiding negative side impacts.

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, to present an analysis of a comprehensive set of global energy scenarios that has been undertaken to identify key energy technologies for achieving sustainable development. Secondly, to describe tools that could aid policy makers using insights in the dynamics of technological progress to promote the development of promising technologies throughresearch and development (R&D) and procurement. As an operational working definition of sustainable development we use the following four criteria: (1) Economic growth sustains throughout the whole time horizon; (2) socio-economic inequity among world regions is reduced "significantly" during this century; (3) reserves-to-production (R/P) ratios of exhaustible primary energy carriers do not decrease substantially from today's values; and (4) short- to medium-term environmental impacts (e.g., acidification) are reduced towards meeting critical loads and carbon emissions at the end of the century are below today's levels. Applying these criteria in an analysis of a representative set of global economy-energy-environment scenarios shows that in sustainable-development scenarios, hydrogen fuel cells and solar photovoltaic cells emerge as key technologies in the long run. Natural gas technologies, in particular fuel cells and combined-cycle power plants, could provide for an efficient medium-term transition to these key technologies. The question then becomes which policies can promote the development of these technologies. We think that an important tool to tackle this question is provided by an improved concept of technological learning. According to that concept, technological progress, expressed as specific technology cost, is a regular function of not only cumulative installed capacity but also of R&D expenditures. This tool can assist in determining how much money should be spent for which energy technology on procurement (capacity expansion) and how much money for R&D. The results of first model runs aiming at eventually formulating policy guidance are presented.

In this paper, we analyse the impact of carbon taxes on emission levels, when niche markets exist for new carbon-free technologies, and when these technologies experience "learning-by-doing" effects. For this purpose, a general equilibrium model has been developed, DEMETER, that specifies two energy technologies: one based on fossil fuels and one on a composite of carbon-free technologies. Initially, the carbon-free technology has relatively high production costs, but niche markets ensure positive demand. Learning-by-doing decreases production costs, which increases the market share, which in turn accelerates learning-by-doing, and so forth. This mechanism allows a relatively modest carbon tax, of about 50 US$tC, to almost stabilise carbon emissions at their 2000 levels throughout the entire 21st century. Sensitivity analysis shows that the required carbon tax for emission stabilisation crucially depends on the elasticity of substitution between the fossil-fuel and carbon-free technology.

In this paper, using the "bottom-up" energy-system optimisation ERIS model, we examine the effects of emission trading on technology deployment, emphasising the role of technology learning spillovers. That is, the possibility that the learning accumulated in a particular technology in a given region may spill to other regions as well, leading to cost reductions there also. The effects of different configurations of interregional spillovers of learning in ERIS and the impact of the emission trading mechanism under those different circumstances are analysed. Including spatial spillovers of learning allows capturing the possibility that the imposition of greenhouse gas emission constraints in a given region may induce technological change in other regions, such as developing countries, even if the latter regions do not face emission constraints. Our stylised results point out the potential benefits of sound international cooperation between industrialised and developing regions on research, development, demonstration and deployment (RD3) of clean energy technologies and on the implementation of emission trading schemes.

This paper examines the impact of public research and development (R&D) support on cost reducing innovation for wind turbine farms in Denmark, Germany and the United Kingdom (UK). First we survey the literature in this field. The literature indicates that in Denmark R&D policy has been more successful than in Germany or the UK in promoting innovation of wind turbines. Furthermore, such studies point out that (subsidy-induced) capacity expansions were more effective in the UK and Denmark in promoting cost-reducing innovation than in Germany. The second part of the paper describes the quantitative analysis of the impact of R&D and the capacity expansion on innovation. This is calculated using the two-factor learning curve (2FLC) model, in which investment cost reductions are explained by cumulative capacity and the R&D based knowledge stock. Time-series data were collected for the three countries and organized as a panel data set. The parameters of the 2FLC model were estimated, focusing on the heterogeneity of the parameters across countries. We arrive at robust estimations of a learning-by-doing rate of 5.4% and a learning-by-searching rate of 12.6%. The analysis underlies the homogeneity of the learning parameters, enhancing the validity of the 2FLC formulation.

The purpose of this paper is to study an optimal structure of a system of international gas pipelines competing for a gas market. We develop a game-dynamic model of the operation of several interacting gas pipeline projects with project owners acting as players in the game. The model treats the projects' commercialization times major players' controls. Current quantities of gas supply are modeled as approximations of Nash equilibrium points in instantaneous "gas supply games", in which each player maximizes his/her current net profit due to the sales of gas. We use the model to analyze the Turkish gas market, on which gas routes originating from Russia, Turkmenistan and Iran are competing. The analysis is carried out in three steps. At step 1, we model the operation of the pipelines as planned and estimate the associated profits. At step 2, we optimize individual projects, with respect to their profits, assuming that the other pipelines operate as planned. At step 3, we find numerical Nash equilibrium commercialization policies for the entire group of the pipelines. The simulations show the degrees to which the planned regimes are not optimal compared to the Nash equilibrium ones. Another observation is that in equilibrium regimes the pipelines are not always being run at their full capacities, which implies that the proposed pipeline capacities might not be optimal. The simulation results turn out to be moderately sensitive to changes in the discount rate and highly sensitive to changes in the price elasticity of gas demand.

The Kyoto Protocol foresees emission trading but does not yet specify verification of (uncertain) emissions. This paper analyses a setting in which parties can meet their emission targets by reducing emissions, by investing in monitoring (reducing uncertainty of emissions) or by (bilaterally) trading permits. We derive the optimality conditions and carry out various numerical simulations. Our applications suggest that including uncertainty could increase compliance costs for the USA, Japan and the European Union. Central Europe and the Former Soviet Union might be able to gain from the trading due to higher permit prices. Emissions trading could also lower aggregate uncertainty on emissions.

This paper presents a dynamic investment model of the international gas pipeline routings to the Turkish market. The model was developed by IIASA's Dynamic Systems Project (DYN) and Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies Project (ECS) in 2000. To allow for user-friendly modeling, a professional software package "Investments in Gas Pipelines Optimization of Returns" (IGOR) was developed which can also be used as a basis for models for related problems. Input data originated from various sources, in particular IIASA's MESSAGE model. The paper analyzes model results under a wide range of future outcomes and includes comprehensive sensitivity analyses. The returns for five potential gas pipeline projects were analyzed for a wide range of values for the price elasticity of gas demand, GDP elasticity of gas demand and discount rates. The numerical results allow conclusions about gas price developments and optimal gas supply policies relative to the market parameters.

This article investigates the impact on optimal CO2 abatement and carbon tax levels of introducing endogenous technological change in a macroeconomic model of climate change. We analyze technological change as a function of cumulative capacity, as incorporated recently in energy-systems models. Our calculations confirm that including endogenous innovation implies earlier emission reduction to meet atmospheric carbon concentration constraints. However, the effect is stronger than suggested in the literature. Moreover, the development on non-fossil energy technologies constitutes the most important opportunity for emission reductions. Optimal carbon tax levels, reducing fossil energy use, are lower than usually advocated.

The paper addresses the issue of optimal investments in innovations with strong long-term aftereffects. As an example, investments in the construction of gas pipelines are considered. The most sensible part of a gas pipeline project is the choice of the commercialization time, i.e., the time of the finalizing the construction of the pipeline. If several projects compete for a gas market, the choices of the commercialization times determine the future structure of the market and thus become specially important. Rational decisions in this respect can be associated with Nash equilibria in a game between the projects. In this game, the total benefits gained during the pipelines' life periods act as payoffs and commercialization times as strategies. The goal of this paper is to characterize multiequilibria in this "game of timing". The case of two players is studied in detail. A key point in the analysis is the observation that all player's best response commercialization times concentrate at two instants that are fixed in advance. This reduces decisionmaking to choose between two fixed investment policies, "fast" and "slow", with the prescribed commercialization times. A description of a simple algorithm that finds all the Nash equilibria composed of "fast" and "slow" scenarios include the paper.

In March 1997 the European Commission adopted a proposal that increases existing minimum levels of taxation on mineral oils by around up 10% to 25% and introduces excises for other energy products. This paper analyses the macroeconomic impacts of the proposal. It employs three models: HERMES, GEM-E3, and E3ME. All models confirm that the proposal will have positive macroeconomic impacts when the tax revenues are used to reduce social security contributions paid by employers. For the EU as a whole, both GDP and employment are expected to be higher, and CO2 emissions are 0.9% to 1.6% lower. The positive EU-wide effects can be observed in practically all member states. The sector impacts are modest, with the energy sector expected to face the most negative impacts. Differences between model results are due to the model type (general equilibrium or macro-econometric), the EU countries covered, and the way tax exemptions were handled. Crucial assumptions to obtain the "double dividend" are the modeling of the labor market and the impacts on EU external trade. The sensitivity of the results for the use of tax revenues, tax exemptions and tax rate increases is assessed.

This study explores the concept of new energy infrastructures (in particular gas pipelines) in Eurasia and discusses its implications on future energy systems, gas trade, and the environment. Overall resource availability is not expected to be a real constraint in meeting growing energy demand within the next 100 years, but the geographical concentration of resources is. The expected increase in the use of domestic energy sources (coal) in Asia is associated with severe adverse environmental impacts causing significant damage to human health and the natural environment. In contrast, natural gas could offer an ideal bridge to the post fossil era, but requires the development of new Eurasian energy networks. Up-front investment in gas transit pipelines may constitute a significant portion of future energy investments. The financial risks appear significant and depend on factors such as demand and supply development, technological progress, geographical and political environments and prevailing regulatory regimes. Timely investment and associated cost reductions in the necessary infrastructure could create the potential for FSU gas exports becoming ten-fold as high in 2050 as otherwise would be the case. This would have significant positive impacts on the global, regional and local environment and also entail significant positive economic impacts. In addition, supply diversification would be promoted.

This paper examines the potential costs of a ceiling on the use of flexibility mechanisms in the Kyoto Protocol using POLES, a partial equilibrium model of the world energy systems. The results suggest that if emission trading were restricted to Annex I countries, halving the traded volume would increase costs by US$11 billion per year. If emission trading were to operate at a global level, reducing the trade to half the perfect market volume would increase annual costs by US$12 billion per year. Global carbon emission might, however, be 1% lower. The sensitivity of the results is discussed.

In the US the first stage of a federal system of tradeable sulfur allowances started on January 1, 1995. This article assesses the first experiences with the program. The design of the program is set out and contrasted with the earlier EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) emission trading program. The market performance of the allowance market in the period 1992 to 1996 is evaluated, and expected developments in the next decade are described. Bottlenecks in market performance, cost-effectiveness and environmental effectiveness are discussed. We conclude that the market far sulfur allowances has performed quite well.