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Objectives: The spread of SARS-CoV-2 is dependent on several factors, both biological and behavioural. The effectiveness of nonpharmaceutical interventions can be attributed largely to changes in human behaviour, but quantifying this effect remains challenging. Reconstructing the transmission tree of the third wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland using contact tracing and viral sequence data from 2522 cases enables us to directly compare the infectiousness of distinct groups of persons. Methods: The transmission tree enables us to model the effect that a given population prevalence of vaccination would have had on the third wave had one of three different vaccination strategies been implemented before that time. This allows us to compare the effectiveness of the strategies in terms of minimizing the number of cases, deaths, critical cases, and severe cases. Results: We found that people diagnosed outside of quarantine (Ȓ = 1.31) were 89% more infectious than those diagnosed while in quarantine (Ȓ = 0.70) and that infectiousness decreased as a function of time spent in quarantine before diagnosis, with people diagnosed outside of quarantine being 144% more infectious than those diagnosed after ≥3 days in quarantine (Ȓ = 0.54). People of working age, 16 to 66 years (Ȓ = 1.08), were 46% more infectious than those outside of that age range (Ȓ = 0.74). Discussion: We found that vaccinating the population in order of ascending age or uniformly at random would have prevented more infections per vaccination than vaccinating in order of descending age, without significantly affecting the expected number of deaths, critical cases, or severe cases.

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 is dependent on several factors, both biological and behavioral. The effectiveness of various non-pharmaceutical interventions can largely be attributed to changes in human behavior, but quantifying this effect remains challenging. Reconstructing the transmission tree of the third wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland using contact tracing and viral sequence data from 2522 cases enables us to compare the infectiousness of distinct groups of persons directly. We find that people diagnosed outside of quarantine are 89% more infectious than those diagnosed while in quarantine, and infectiousness decreases as a function of the time spent in quarantine. Furthermore, we find that people of working age, 16-66 years old, are 47% more infectious than those outside that age range. Lastly, the transmission tree enables us to model the effect that given population prevalence of vaccination would have had on the third wave had they been administered before that time using several different strategies. We find that vaccinating in order of ascending age or uniformly at random would have prevented more infections per vaccination than vaccinating in order of descending age.

Publisher's version (útgefin grein) Publisher’s note: Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations., Mutations in genes encoding subunits of the phagocyte NADPH oxidase complex are recognized to cause chronic granulomatous disease (CGD), a severe primary immunodeficiency. Here we describe how deficiency of CYBC1, a previously uncharacterized protein in humans (C17orf62), leads to reduced expression of NADPH oxidase’s main subunit (gp91phox) and results in CGD. Analyzing two brothers diagnosed with CGD we identify a homozygous loss-of-function mutation, p.Tyr2Ter, in CYBC1. Imputation of p.Tyr2Ter into 155K chipgenotyped Icelanders reveals six additional homozygotes, all with signs of CGD, manifesting as colitis, rare infections, or a severely impaired PMA-induced neutrophil oxidative burst. Homozygosity for p.Tyr2Ter consequently associates with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) in Iceland (P = 8.3 × 10−8; OR = 67.6), as well as reduced height (P = 3.3 × 10−4; −8.5 cm). Overall, we find that CYBC1 deficiency results in CGD characterized by colitis and a distinct profile of infections indicative of macrophage dysfunction., We wish to thank the family of the two probands, as well as all the other individuals who participated in the study and whose contribution made this work possible.

Background Little is known about the nature and durability of the humoral immune response to infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Methods We measured antibodies in serum samples from 30,576 persons in Iceland, using six assays (including two pan-immunoglobulin [pan-Ig] assays), and we determined that the appropriate measure of seropositivity was a positive result with both pan-Ig assays. We tested 2102 samples collected from 1237 persons up to 4 months after diagnosis by a quantitative polymerase-chain-reaction (qPCR) assay. We measured antibodies in 4222 quarantined persons who had been exposed to SARS-CoV-2 and in 23,452 persons not known to have been exposed. Results Of the 1797 persons who had recovered from SARS-CoV-2 infection, 1107 of the 1215 who were tested (91.1%) were seropositive; antiviral antibody titers assayed by two pan-Ig assays increased during 2 months after diagnosis by qPCR and remained on a plateau for the remainder of the study. Of quarantined persons, 2.3% were seropositive; of those with unknown exposure, 0.3% were positive. We estimate that 0.9% of Icelanders were infected with SARS-CoV-2 and that the infection was fatal in 0.3%. We also estimate that 56% of all SARS-CoV-2 infections in Iceland had been diagnosed with qPCR, 14% had occurred in quarantined persons who had not been tested with qPCR (or who had not received a positive result, if tested), and 30% had occurred in persons outside quarantine and not tested with qPCR. Conclusions Our results indicate that antiviral antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 did not decline within 4 months after diagnosis. We estimate that the risk of death from infection was 0.3% and that 44% of persons infected with SARS-CoV-2 in Iceland were not diagnosed by qPCR.

Background During the current worldwide pandemic, coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) was first diagnosed in Iceland at the end of February. However, data are limited on how SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, enters and spreads in a population. Methods We targeted testing to persons living in Iceland who were at high risk for infection (mainly those who were symptomatic, had recently traveled to high-risk countries, or had contact with infected persons). We also carried out population screening using two strategies: issuing an open invitation to 10,797 persons and sending random invitations to 2283 persons. We sequenced SARS-CoV-2 from 643 samples. Results As of April 4, a total of 1221 of 9199 persons (13.3%) who were recruited for targeted testing had positive results for infection with SARS-CoV-2. Of those tested in the general population, 87 (0.8%) in the open-invitation screening and 13 (0.6%) in the random-population screening tested positive for the virus. In total, 6% of the population was screened. Most persons in the targeted-testing group who received positive tests early in the study had recently traveled internationally, in contrast to those who tested positive later in the study. Children under 10 years of age were less likely to receive a positive result than were persons 10 years of age or older, with percentages of 6.7% and 13.7%, respectively, for targeted testing; in the population screening, no child under 10 years of age had a positive result, as compared with 0.8% of those 10 years of age or older. Fewer females than males received positive results both in targeted testing (11.0% vs. 16.7%) and in population screening (0.6% vs. 0.9%). The haplotypes of the sequenced SARS-CoV-2 viruses were diverse and changed over time. The percentage of infected participants that was determined through population screening remained stable for the 20-day duration of screening. Conclusions In a population-based study in Iceland, children under 10 years of age and females had a lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection than adolescents or adults and males. The proportion of infected persons identified through population screening did not change substantially during the screening period, which was consistent with a beneficial effect of containment efforts. (Funded by deCODE Genetics–Amgen.)

BACKGROUNDLimited data exist on how SARS-CoV-2 enters and spreads in the general population.METHODSWe used two strategies for SARS-CoV-2 testing: targeted testing of high-risk individuals (n=4,551) and a population screening (n=5,502). We sequenced SARS-CoV-2 from 340 individuals.RESULTSOn March 22 2020, 528 had tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in the targeted testing (11.6%) and 50 in the population screening (0.9%); approximately 0.2% of the Icelandic population. Large fractions of positives had travelled outside Iceland (38.4% and 34.0%). Fewer under 10 years old were positive than those older: 2.8% vs. 12.3% for targeted testing (P=1.6e-9) and 0.0% vs. 1.0% for population screening (P=0.031). Fewer females were positive in the targeted testing than males (9.5% vs. 14.6%, P=6.8e-9). SARS-CoV-2 came from eight clades, seven A clades and one B clade. The clade composition differed between the testing groups and changed with time. In the early targeted testing, 65.0% of clades were A2a1 and A2a2 derived from Italian and Austrian skiing areas, but in the later targeted testing went down to 30.6% and were overtaken by A1a and A2a, the most common clades in the population screening.CONCLUSIONSARS-CoV-2 has spread widely in Iceland outside of the high-risk groups. Several strains cause these infections and their relative contribution changed rapidly. Children and females are less vulnerable than adults and males. To contain the pandemic we must increase the scope of the testing.

A third survey of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Iceland has been performed covering the decade 1956–1965 and the patients have been followed-up to 1973. The same diagnostic criteria have been used as in the second survey (1946–1955). During the period 37 new patients were encountered and, of these, 34 were classified as definitely or probably suffering from MS. The whole material, i.e. including MS-patients alive or dead at some time during 1946–1965, now amounts to 129 definite and probable cases of which 50 are males and 79 are females, and 13 possible cases of which 7 are males and 6 are females. The possible cases are not included in the statistical figures in this abstract. The mean age at onset was higher in this survey than in the second survey, i.e. 32 years as compared to 27 before. In 1960 the prevalence rate was 42.8 100,000 for males, 62.1 for females and 52.4 for both sexes, and in 1965 the figures were 44.0, 60.7 and 52.3 respectively. The age-specific prevalence rate was highest in the age groups 30–39 and 40–49, figures similar to those obtained in the second survey. The incidence rate during the survey period 1956–1965 was 1.9 100,000 per annum. In the previous decade it was somewhat higher at 3.1 100,000 per annum. There were 9 families containing more than 1 case and the familial incidence was 7.0%. There was some evidence of accumulation of cases in Eastern Iceland and of a local accumulation in Southern Iceland.

Since 1974 we have attempted to ascertain all cases of MS beginning 1900–1975 in Iceland. As of October 1979 they numbered 168; all but 5 met all diagnostic criteria of the Schumacher Committee. Virtually all cases had been examined by at least one of the authors. Cases were few and sporadic from 1900 to 1922, then increased to a plateau for 1923–44, then again increased in 1945 with an irregular plateau thereafter. Average annual incidence rate for 1945–1954 was 3.2 per 100,000 population, significantly higher than the 1.6 for 1923–1944 or the 1.9 for 1955–1974. Age at onset was significantly decreased for cases with onset 1945–1949 and then sharply increased for those with 1950–1954 onsets. The occurrence of MS in 1945–1954 meets the criteria for a point-source epidemic, whose tail thereafter merged into what may be “baseline” for Iceland. This postwar epidemic is then similar to that recently described for the Faroe Islands, a land that shares its history, culture, and peoples with Iceland.