1. Modifying the pre-computed tsunami database for real-time tsunami forecasting after the 2016 off-Fukushima earthquake by an unpredicted mechanism
- Author
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Hayashi, Y., Kiyomoto, M., Tange, G., Noguchi, K., Harada, S., and Nishimae, Y.
- Abstract
On 22 November 2016, an intraplate normal-fault earthquake with a magnitude (MJMA) of 7.4, with a tension axis in the northwest-southeast direction (hereafter, 2016 off-Fukushima earthquake), occurred east of the Fukushima Prefecture, Japan. However, the tsunami database (TDB), which contains pre-calculated tsunami data used for real-time tsunami forecasting by the Japan Meteorological Agency, had assumed that earthquakes in the Fukushima region were north-south oriented reverse fault type. The earthquake mechanism of the 2016 off-Fukushima earthquake differs from the predictions made in the TDB. Although the incorrect classification of normal and reverse faults did not affect the real-time tsunami prediction, the difference in fault plane strike was the main cause of the underestimated height prediction for Miyagi Prefecture. An efficient scenario arrangement is achieved when the differences in predictions from adjacent scenarios in the TDB are similar. Sensitivity analyses of tsunami height distribution to fault parameters for the 2016 off-Fukushima earthquake revealed the importance of the fault plane strike [1]. Therefore, adding earthquake tsunami scenarios with different fault plane strikes and the same epicentre near the epicentral area is reasonable. We compared the centroid moment tensor solutions for earthquakes with a moment magnitude of 5.5 or more that occurred in the coastal area around Japan between September 1994 and April 2017 with the fault parameters assumed in the TDB. Afterwards, we added scenarios to the TDB for regions where the difference in strike directions was observed to be 30° or more.Reference:[1] Hayashi, J. JSCE, B2-77(2),I_187-I_192, 2021. (in Japanese with English Abstract), The 28th IUGG General Assembly (IUGG2023) (Berlin 2023)
- Published
- 2023
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