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Observations of the ultra-short period rocky exoplanet 55 Cancri e (55 Cnc e) indicate that the planet's dayside infrared radiation fluctuates by a factor of at least six on sub-weekly timescales, for unknown reasons. We propose a feedback mechanism where increased reflective clouds cool surface magma, subsequently reducing cloud formation, which may offer a potential explanation for these phenomena. In this mechanism, under less cloudy conditions, stellar radiation heats the surface magma, causing it to release more silicate vapor, which then condenses to form reflective clouds. Once formed, these clouds reduce stellar insolation at the surface, leading to surface cooling, which in turn reduces vapor supply, decreasing cloudiness. A time lag between the temperature increase of surface magma and the subsequent increase in cloudiness (likely due to lagged atmospheric transport of cloud-forming vapor) enables self-sustained oscillations in surface temperature and cloud reflectivity. These oscillations manifest as variations in both the emitted thermal radiation and the reflected stellar radiation, causing variability in secondary eclipse depths across different wavelengths without significantly affecting the transit depth. Using a simple model, we find that diverse planetary parameters can reproduce the observations. Additionally, we demonstrate that secondary eclipse depths at different wavelengths can oscillate out of phase, consistent with recent observations by the James Webb Space Telescope. Finally, we discuss observational strategies to test this proposed mechanism on 55 Cancri e. If confirmed, observable ocean-atmosphere dynamics on exoplanets would open a new window into the composition, evolution, and fate of rocky planet volatiles., Comment: Authors Luo and Loftus contributed equally. 17 pages, 3 figures, 2 tables. Associated code at https://github.com/kaitlyn-loftus/lava-limits

One-third of Mars' surface has shallow-buried H$_2$O, but it is currently too cold for use by life. Proposals to warm Mars using greenhouse gases require a large mass of ingredients that are rare on Mars' surface. However, we show here that artificial aerosols made from materials that are readily available at Mars-for example, conductive nanorods that are ~9 $\mu$m long-could warm Mars >5 $\times$ 10$^3$ times more effectively than the best gases. Such nanoparticles forward-scatter sunlight and efficiently block upwelling thermal infrared. Similar to the natural dust of Mars, they are swept high into Mars' atmosphere, allowing delivery from the near-surface. For a particle lifetime of 10 years, two climate models indicate that sustained release at 30 liters/sec would globally warm Mars by $\gtrsim$30 K and start to melt the ice. Therefore, if nanoparticles can be made at scale on (or delivered to) Mars, then the barrier to warming of Mars appears to not be as high as previously thought.

A primary science goal for JWST is to detect and characterize the atmospheres of terrestrial planets orbiting M dwarfs (M-Earths). The existence of atmospheres on M-Earths is highly uncertain because their host stars' extended history of high XUV irradiation may act to completely remove their atmospheres. We present two JWST secondary eclipse observations of the M-Earth Gl 486b (also known as GJ 486b) between 5-12 $\mu$m. We combined these observations with a precise analysis of the host star parameters to derive a planetary dayside temperature of $T_{p}=865 \pm 14$ K. We compared this temperature to the maximum expected temperature for a zero albedo, zero heat redistribution bare rock and derived a temperature ratio of $R=\frac{T_{p,dayside}}{T_{p,max}}=0.97 \pm 0.01$. This value is consistent with an airless body with a slight non-zero albedo or a thin atmosphere with $<1$% H$_{2}$O or $<1$ ppm CO$_{2}$. However, it is inconsistent with an Earth- or Venus-like atmosphere, and the spectrum shows no clear emission or absorption features. Additionally, our observations are inconsistent with the water-rich atmospheric scenario allowed by previous transit observations and suggest the transmission spectrum was instead shaped by stellar contamination (Moran et al. 2023). Given the potential for atmospheric escape throughout the system's $\geq6.6$-Gyr lifetime (Diamond-Lowe et al. 2024), we conclude that the observations are likely best explained by an airless planet. This result is the most precise measurement yet of terrestrial exoplanet thermal emission with JWST, which places a strong constraint on the position of the "Cosmic Shoreline" between airless bodies and those with atmospheres., Comment: 13 pages, 6 figures, accepted to ApJL

We present thermal emission measurements of GJ 1132b spanning 5--12 um obtained with the Mid-Infrared Instrument Low-Resolution Spectrometer (MIRI/LRS) on the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). GJ 1132b is an M-dwarf rocky planet with Teq=584 K and an orbital period of 1.6 days. We measure a white-light secondary eclipse depth of 140+/-17 ppm, which corresponds to a dayside brightness temperature of Tp,dayside= 709+/-31 K using improved star and planet parameters. This measured temperature is only 1 sigma below the maximum possible dayside temperature of a bare rock (i.e., assuming a zero albedo planet with no heat redistribution, Tmax = 746+14/-11 K). The emission spectrum is consistent with a featureless blackbody, which agrees with a wide range of possible surface compositions. By comparing forward models to the dayside emission spectrum, we rule out Earth-thickness (P ~ 1 bar) atmospheres with at least 1% H2O, atmospheres of any modeled thickness (10^-4 -- 10^2 bar) that contain at least 1% CO2, and thick, Venus-like atmospheres (P>~100 bar) with at least 1 ppm CO2 or H2O. We therefore conclude that GJ 1132b likely does not have a significant atmosphere. This finding supports the concept of a universal 'Cosmic Shoreline' given the high level of bolometric and XUV irradiation received by the planet., Comment: Accepted by ApJL

TOI-6255~b (GJ 4256) is an Earth-sized planet (1.079$\pm0.065$ $R_\oplus$) with an orbital period of only 5.7 hours. With the newly commissioned Keck Planet Finder (KPF) and CARMENES spectrographs, we determined the planet's mass to be 1.44$\pm$0.14 $M_{\oplus}$. The planet is just outside the Roche limit, with $P_{\rm orb}/P_{\rm Roche}$ = 1.13 $\pm0.10$. The strong tidal force likely deforms the planet into a triaxial ellipsoid with a long axis that is $\sim$10\% longer than the short axis. Assuming a reduced stellar tidal quality factor $Q_\star^\prime \approx10^7$, we predict that tidal orbital decay will cause TOI-6255 to reach the Roche limit in roughly 400 Myr. Such tidal disruptions may produce the possible signatures of planet engulfment that have been on stars with anomalously high refractory elemental abundances compared to its conatal binary companion. TOI-6255 b is also a favorable target for searching for star-planet magnetic interactions, which might cause interior melting and hasten orbital decay. TOI-6255 b is a top target (Emission Spectroscopy Metric of about 24) for phase curve observations with the James Webb Space Telescope., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, 5 tables, accepted to AAS Journals. The first RV mass measurement from the Keck Planet Finder

Mars' tadpole craters are small, young craters whose crater rims are incised by one or more exit breaches but lack visible inlets. The tadpole forming climate records the poorly understood drying of Mars since the Early Hesperian. A third of tadpole craters have multiple breaches, therefore a process is needed that was able to generate crater rim incision in multiple locations. We use HiRISE data for four multiple breach tadpole craters to measure their crater fill, rims, and exit breaches. We compare these measurements and other data to our calculations of liquid water supply by rain, surface melting, groundwater discharge, and basal ice sheet melting to discriminate between four proposed formation hypotheses for tadpole breaches, favoring scenarios with ice-filled craters and supraglacial melting. We conclude that multiple breach tadpole craters record hundreds of meters of mid-latitude ice and climate conditions enabling intermittent melting in the Late Hesperian and Amazonian, suggesting that liquid water on Mars has been available in association with water ice for billions of years., Comment: Planetary Science Journal, in press

Understanding surface temperature is important for habitability. Recent work on Mars has found that the dependence of surface temperature on elevation (surface lapse rate) converges to zero in the limit of a thin CO2 atmosphere. However, the mechanisms that control the surface lapse rate are still not fully understood. It remains unclear how the surface lapse rate depends on both greenhouse effect and surface pressure. Here, we use climate models to study when and why "mountaintops are cold". We find the tropical surface lapse rate increases with the greenhouse effect and with surface pressure. The greenhouse effect dominates the surface lapse rate transition and is robust across latitudes. The pressure effect is important at low latitudes in moderately opaque atmospheres. A simple model provides insights into the mechanisms of the transition. Our results suggest that topographic cold-trapping may be important for the climate of arid planets., Comment: 14 pages, 4 figures; accepted for publication on Geophysical Research Letters

We present observations of the 1.35+/-0.07 Earth-radius planet L 98-59 c using Wide Field Camera~3 on the Hubble Space Telescope. L 98-59 is a nearby (10.6 pc), bright (H=7.4 mag), M3V star that harbors three small, transiting planets. As one of the closest known transiting multi-planet systems, L 98-59 offers one of the best opportunities to probe and compare the atmospheres of rocky planets that formed in the same stellar environment. We measured the transmission spectrum of L 98-59 c during a single transit, with the extracted spectrum showing marginal evidence for wavelength-dependent transit depth variations which would indicate the presence of an atmosphere. Forward modeling was used to constrain possible atmospheric compositions of the planet based on the shape of the transmission spectrum. Although L 98-59 is a fairly quiet star, we have seen evidence for stellar activity, and therefore we cannot rule out a scenario where the source of the signal originates with inhomogeneities on the host-star surface. While intriguing, our results are inconclusive and additional data is needed to verify any atmospheric signal. Fortunately, additional data will soon be collected from both HST and JWST. Should this result be confirmed with additional data, L 98-59 c would be the first planet smaller than 2 Earth-radii with a detected atmosphere, and among the first small planets with a known atmosphere to be studied in detail by the JWST., Comment: Submitted to AAS Journals

Mars' wet-to-dry transition is a major environmental catastrophe, yet the spatial pattern, tempo, and cause of drying are poorly constrained. We built a globally-distributed database of constraints on Mars late-stage paleolake size relative to catchment area (aridity index), and found evidence for climate zonation as Mars was drying out. Aridity increased over time in southern midlatitude highlands, where lakes became proportionally as small as in modern Nevada. Meanwhile, intermittently wetter climates persisted in equatorial and northern-midlatitude lowlands. This is consistent with a change in Mars' greenhouse effect that left highlands too cold for liquid water except during a brief melt season, or alternatively with a fall in Mars' groundwater table. The data are consistent with a switch of unknown cause in the dependence of aridity index on elevation, from high-and-wet early on, to high-and-dry later. These results sharpen our view of Mars' climate as surface conditions became increasingly stressing for life., Comment: Accepted by Geophysical Research Letters

The climate of a planet can be strongly affected by its eccentricity due to variations in the stellar flux. There are two limits for the dependence of the inner habitable zone boundary (IHZ) on eccentricity: (1) the mean-stellar flux approximation ($S_{\mbox{IHZ}} \propto \sqrt{1-e^2}$), in which the temperature is approximately constant throughout the orbit, and (2) the maximum-stellar flux approximation ($S_{\mbox{IHZ}} \propto (1-e)^2$), in which the temperature adjusts instantaneously to the stellar flux. Which limit is appropriate is determined by the dimensionless parameter $\Pi = \frac{C}{BP}$, where $C$ is the heat capacity of the planet, $P$ is the orbital period, and $B=\frac{\partial \Omega}{\partial T_s}$, where $\Omega$ is the outgoing longwave radiation and $T_s$ is the surface temperature. We use the Buckingham $\Pi$ theorem to derive an analytical function for the IHZ in terms of eccentricity and $\Pi$. We then build a time-dependent energy balance model to resolve the surface temperature evolution and constrain our analytical result. We find that $\Pi$ must be greater than about $\sim 1$ for the mean-stellar flux approximation to be nearly exact and less than about $\sim 0.01$ for the maximum-stellar flux approximation to be nearly exact. In addition to assuming a constant heat capacity, we also consider the effective heat capacity including latent heat (evaporation and precipitation). We find that for planets with an Earth-like ocean, the IHZ should follow the mean-stellar flux limit for all eccentricities. This work will aid in the prioritization of potentially habitable exoplanets with non-zero eccentricity for follow-up characterization., Comment: Accepted to ApJL

The Medusae Fossae Formation (MFF) is an enigmatic sedimentary unit near the equator of Mars, with an uncertain formation process and absolute age. Due to the heavily wind-eroded surface, it is difficult to determine the absolute model age of the MFF using a one-parameter model based on the crater size-frequency distribution function with existing crater count data. We create a new two-parameter model that estimates both age and a constant erosion rate ($\beta$) by treating cratering as a random Poisson process. Our study uses new crater count data collected from Context Camera imagery for both the MFF and other young equatorial sedimentary rock. Based on our new model, the Central MFF formed $>$1.5 Gyr ago and had low erosion rates ($<$650 nm yr$^{-1}$), whereas the East MFF, Far East MFF, and Zephyria Planum most likely formed $<$1.5 Gyr ago and had higher erosion rates ($>$740 nm $^{-1}$). The top of Aeolis Mons (informally known as Mount Sharp) in Gale Crater and Eastern Candor have relatively young ages and low erosion rates. Based on the estimated erosion rates (since fast erosion permits metastable shallow ice), we also identify several sites, including Zephyria Planum, as plausible locations for shallow subsurface equatorial water ice that is detectable by gamma-ray spectroscopy or neutron spectroscopy. In addition to confirming $<$1.5 Gyr sedimentary rock formations on Mars, and distinguishing older and younger MFF sites, we find that fast-eroding locations have younger ages and MFF locations with slower erosion have older best-fit ages., Comment: 17 pages, 12 figures

With the increasing number of planets discovered by TESS, the atmospheric characterization of small exoplanets is accelerating. L98-59 is a M-dwarf hosting a multi-planet system, and so far, four small planets have been confirmed. The innermost planet b is $\sim15\%$ smaller and $\sim60\%$ lighter than Earth, and should thus have a predominantly rocky composition. The Hubble Space Telescope observed five primary transits of L98-59b in $1.1-1.7\ \mu$m, and here we report the data analysis and the resulting transmission spectrum of the planet. We measure the transit depths for each of the five transits and, by combination, we obtain a transmission spectrum with an overall precision of $\sim20$ ppm in for each of the 18 spectrophotometric channels. With this level of precision, the transmission spectrum does not show significant modulation, and is thus consistent with a planet without any atmosphere or a planet having an atmosphere and high-altitude clouds or haze. The scenarios involving an aerosol-free, H$_2$-dominated atmosphere with H$_2$O or CH$_4$ are inconsistent with the data. The transmission spectrum also disfavors, but does not rules out, an H$_2$O-dominated atmosphere without clouds. A spectral retrieval process suggests that an H$_2$-dominated atmosphere with HCN and clouds or haze may be the preferred solution, but this indication is non-conclusive. Future James Webb Space Telescope observations may find out the nature of the planet among the remaining viable scenarios., Comment: 17 pages, 5 figures, 7 tables, accepted for publication in AJ

TOI-561 is a galactic thick disk star hosting an ultra-short period (0.45 day orbit) planet with a radius of 1.37 R$_{\oplus}$, making it one of the most metal-poor ([Fe/H] = -0.41) and oldest ($\sim$10 Gyr) sites where an Earth-sized planet has been found. We present new simultaneous radial velocity measurements (RVs) from Gemini-N/MAROON-X and Keck/HIRES, which we combined with literature RVs to derive a mass of M$_{b}$=2.24 $\pm$ 0.20 M$_{\oplus}$. We also used two new Sectors of TESS photometry to improve the radius determination, finding R$_{b}$=$1.37 \pm 0.04 R_\oplus$, and confirming that TOI-561 b is one of the lowest-density super-Earths measured to date ($\rho_b$= 4.8 $\pm$ 0.5 g/cm$^{3}$). This density is consistent with an iron-poor rocky composition reflective of the host star's iron and rock-building element abundances; however, it is also consistent with a low-density planet with a volatile envelope. The equilibrium temperature of the planet ($\sim$2300 K) suggests that this envelope would likely be composed of high mean molecular weight species, such as water vapor, carbon dioxide, or silicate vapor, and is likely not primordial. We also demonstrate that the composition determination is sensitive to the choice of stellar parameters, and that further measurements are needed to determine if TOI-561 b is a bare rocky planet, a rocky planet with an optically thin atmosphere, or a rare example of a non-primordial envelope on a planet with a radius smaller than 1.5 R$_{\oplus}$., Comment: Accepted to AJ on 11/28/2022

The spectroscopic characterization of terrestrial exoplanets will be made possible for the first time with JWST. One challenge to characterizing such planets is that it is not known a priori whether they possess optically thick atmospheres or even any atmospheres altogether. But this challenge also presents an opportunity - the potential to detect the surface of an extrasolar world. This study explores the feasibility of characterizing the atmosphere and surface of a terrestrial exoplanet with JWST, taking LHS 3844b as a test case because it is the highest signal-to-noise rocky thermal emission target among planets that are cool enough to have non-molten surfaces. We model the planetary emission, including the spectral signal of both atmosphere and surface, and we explore all scenarios that are consistent with the existing Spitzer 4.5 $\mu$m measurement of LHS 3844b from Kreidberg et al. (2019). In summary, we find a range of plausible surfaces and atmospheres that are within 3 $\sigma$ of the observation - less reflective metal-rich, iron oxidized and basaltic compositions are allowed, and atmospheres are restricted to a maximum thickness of 1 bar, if near-infrared absorbers at $\gtrsim$ 100 ppm are included. We further make predictions on the observability of surfaces and atmospheres, perform a Bayesian retrieval analysis on simulated JWST data and find that a small number, ~3, of eclipse observations should suffice to differentiate between surface and atmospheric features. However, the surface signal may make it harder to place precise constraints on the abundance of atmospheric species and may even falsely induce a weak H$_2$O detection., Comment: 33 pages, 20 figures

Early Mars had rivers, but the cause of Mars' wet-to-dry transition remains unknown. Past climate on Mars can be probed using the spatial distribution of climate-sensitive landforms. We analyzed global databases of water-worked landforms and identified changes in the spatial distribution of rivers over time. These changes are simply explained by comparison to a simplified meltwater model driven by an ensemble of global climate model simulations, as the result of $\gtrsim$10 K global cooling, from global average surface temperature (T) $\ge$ 268 K to T $\sim$ 258 K, due to a weaker greenhouse effect. In other words, river-forming climates on Early Mars were warm and wet first, and cold and wet later. Surprisingly, analysis of the greenhouse effect within our ensemble of global climate model simulations suggests that this shift was primarily driven by waning non-CO2 radiative forcing, and not changes in CO2 radiative forcing.

The history of rivers on Mars is an important constraint on Martian climate evolution. The timing of relatively young, alluvial fan-forming rivers is especially important, as Mars' Amazonian atmosphere is thought to have been too thin to consistently support surface liquid water. Previous regional studies suggested that alluvial fans formed primarily between the Early Hesperian and the Early Amazonian. In this study, we describe how a combination of a global impact crater database, a global geologic map, a global alluvial fan database, and statistical models can be used to estimate the timing of alluvial fan formation across Mars. Using our global approach and improved statistical modeling, we find that alluvial fan formation likely persisted into the last ~2.5 Gyr, well into the Amazonian period. However, the data we analyzed was insufficient to place constraints on the duration of alluvial fan formation. Going forward, more crater data will enable tighter constraints on the parameters estimated in our models and thus further inform our understanding of Mars' climate evolution., Comment: Accepted by The Planetary Science Journal

Earth's modern climate is characterized by wet, rainy deep tropics, however paleoclimate and planetary science have revealed a wide range of hydrological cycle regimes connected to different external parameters. Here we investigate how surface wetness affects the tropical hydrological cycle. When surface wetness is decreased in an Earth-like general circulation model, the tropics remain wet but transition from a rainy to rain-free regime. The rain-free regime occurs when surface precipitation is suppressed as negative evaporation (surface condensation) balances moisture flux convergence. The regime transition is dominated by near-surface relative humidity changes in contrast to the hypothesis that relative humidity changes are small. We show near-surface relative humidity changes responsible for the regime transition are controlled by re-evaporation of stratiform precipitation near the lifting condensation level. Re-evaporation impacts the near-surface through vertical mixing. Our results reveal a new rain-free tropical hydrological cycle regime that goes beyond the wet/dry paradigm., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, accepted by Geophysical Research Letters

Data suggest that most rocky exoplanets with orbital period $p$ $<$ 100 d ("hot" rocky exoplanets) formed as gas-rich sub-Neptunes that subsequently lost most of their envelopes, but whether these rocky exoplanets still have atmospheres is unknown. We identify a pathway by which 1-1.7 $R_{Earth}$ (1-10 $M_{Earth}$) rocky exoplanets with orbital periods of 10-100 days can acquire long-lived 10-2000 bar atmospheres that are H$_2$O-dominated, with mean molecular weight $>$10. These atmospheres form during the planets' evolution from sub-Neptunes into rocky exoplanets. H$_2$O that is made by reduction of iron oxides in the silicate magma is highly soluble in the magma, forming a dissolved reservoir that is protected from loss so long as the H$_2$-dominated atmosphere persists. The large size of the dissolved reservoir buffers the H$_2$O atmosphere against loss after the H$_2$ has dispersed. Within our model, a long-lived, water-dominated atmosphere is a common outcome for efficient interaction between a nebula-derived atmosphere (peak atmosphere mass fraction 0.1-0.6 wt%) and oxidized magma ($>$5 wt% FeO), followed by atmospheric loss. This idea predicts that most rocky planets that have orbital periods of 10-100 days and that have radii within 0.1-0.2 $R_{Earth}$ of the lower edge of the radius valley still retain H$_2$O atmospheres. This prediction is imminently testable with JWST and has implications for the interpretation of data for transiting super-Earths., Comment: Astrophysical Journal Letters, in press

The climate on early Mars is one of the major unsolved problems. It is unclear whether early Mars was warm and wet or cold and icy. Morphological features on Mars such as sinuous ridges could provide critical constraints to address this issue. Here we investigate several sinuous ridges to the east of Tempe Terra, Mars and find they may have recorded persistent fluvial activity on early Mars. Our analysis indicates that these ridges may represent exhumation of the channel belts and overbank deposits formed from meander rivers over significant geologic time. Layered smectite-bearing minerals, distributed along the ridge flanks, could be detrital or authigenic floodplain clays. Our interpretation of the stratigraphic relationships indicates that the layered smectite-bearing materials lie between channel belt deposits, supporting the floodplain interpretation. Our results suggest that a persistent warming event has persisted for a geologically significant interval (>1500 yr) during the Noachian period of Mars.

Orbital geophysical investigations of Enceladus are critical to understanding its energy balance. We identified key science questions for the geophysical exploration of Enceladus, answering which would support future assessment of Enceladus' astrobiological potential. Using a Bayesian framework, we explored how science requirements map to measurement requirements. We performed mission simulations to study the sensitivity of a single spacecraft and dual spacecraft configurations to static gravity and tidal Love numbers of Enceladus. We find that mapping Enceladus' gravity field, improving the accuracy of the physical libration amplitude, and measuring Enceladus' tidal response would provide critical constraints on the internal structure, and establish a framework for assessing Enceladus' long-term habitability. This kind of investigation could be carried out as part of a life search mission at little additional resource requirements., Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures. A paper submitted to PSJ, which is an extension of the white paper previously submitted to the decadal survey

The search for exoplanetary life must encompass the complex geological processes reflected in an exoplanet's atmosphere, or we risk reporting false positive and false negative detections. To do this, we must nurture the nascent discipline of "exogeoscience" to fully integrate astronomers, astrophysicists, geoscientists, oceanographers, atmospheric chemists and biologists. Increased funding for interdisciplinary research programs, supporting existing and future multidisciplinary research nodes, and developing research incubators is key to transforming true exogeoscience from an aspiration to a reality., Comment: Submitted as white paper to 2023-2033 Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey; Updated to include all co-authors

The next step on the path toward another Earth is to find atmospheres similar to those of Earth and Venus - high-molecular-weight (secondary) atmospheres - on rocky exoplanets. Many rocky exoplanets are born with thick (> 10 kbar) H$_2$-dominated atmospheres but subsequently lose their H$_2$; this process has no known Solar System analog. We study the consequences of early loss of a thick H$_2$ atmosphere for subsequent occurrence of a high-molecular-weight atmosphere using a simple model of atmosphere evolution (including atmosphere loss to space, magma ocean crystallization, and volcanic outgassing). We also calculate atmosphere survival for rocky worlds that start with no H$_2$. Our results imply that most rocky exoplanets orbiting closer to their star than the Habitable Zone that were formed with thick H$_2$-dominated atmospheres lack high-molecular-weight atmospheres today. During early magma ocean crystallization, high-molecular-weight species usually do not form long-lived high-molecular-weight atmospheres; instead they are lost to space alongside H$_2$. This early volatile depletion also makes it more difficult for later volcanic outgassing to revive the atmosphere. However, atmospheres should persist on worlds that start with abundant volatiles (for example, waterworlds). Our results imply that in order to find high-molecular-weight atmospheres on warm exoplanets orbiting M-stars, we should target worlds that formed H$_2$-poor, that have anomalously large radii, or which orbit less active stars.

Planets with 2 $R_{\oplus}$ < $R$ < 3 $R_{\oplus}$ and orbital period $<$100 d are abundant; these sub-Neptune exoplanets are not well understood. For example, $Kepler$ sub-Neptunes are likely to have deep magma oceans in contact with their atmospheres, but little is known about the effect of the magma on the atmosphere. Here we study this effect using a basic model, assuming that volatiles equilibrate with magma at $T$ $\sim$ 3000 K. For our Fe-Mg-Si-O-H model system, we find that chemical reactions between the magma and the atmosphere and dissolution of volatiles into the magma are both important. Thus, magma matters. For H, most moles go into the magma, so the mass target for both H$_2$ accretion and H$_2$ loss models is weightier than is usually assumed. The known span of magma oxidation states can produce sub-Neptunes that have identical radius but with total volatile masses varying by 20-fold. Thus, planet radius is a proxy for atmospheric composition but not for total volatile content. This redox diversity degeneracy can be broken by measurements of atmosphere mean molecular weight. We emphasise H$_2$ supply by nebula gas, but also consider solid-derived H$_2$O. We find that adding H$_2$O to Fe probably cannot make enough H$_2$ to explain sub-Neptune radii because $>$10$^3$-km thick outgassed atmospheres have high mean molecular weight. The hypothesis of magma-atmosphere equilibration links observables such as atmosphere H$_2$O/H$_2$ ratio to magma FeO content and planet formation processes. Our model's accuracy is limited by the lack of experiments (lab and/or numerical) that are specific to sub-Neptunes; we advocate for such experiments., Comment: Accepted by ApJ

Mars has a thin (6 mbar) CO2 atmosphere currently. There is strong evidence for paleolakes and rivers formed by warm climates on Mars, including after 3.5 billion years (Ga) ago, which indicates that a CO2 atmosphere thick enough to permit a warm climate was present at these times. Since Mars no longer has a thick CO2 atmosphere, it must have been lost. One possibility is that Martian CO2 was lost to space. Oxygen escape rates from Mars are high enough to account for loss of a thick CO2 atmosphere, if CO2 was the main source of escaping O. But here, using H isotope ratios, O escape calculations, and quantification of the surface O sinks on Mars, we show for the first time that O escape from Mars after 3.5 Ga must have been predominantly associated with the loss of H2O, not CO2, and therefore it is unlikely that >250 mbar Martian CO2 has been lost to space in the last 3.5 Ga, because such results require highly unfavored O loss scenarios. It is possible that the presence of young rivers and lakes on Mars could be reconciled with limited CO2 loss to space if crater chronologies on Mars are sufficiently incorrect that all apparently young rivers and lakes are actually older than 3.5 Ga, or if climate solutions exist for sustained runoff on Mars with atmospheric CO2 pressure <250 mbar. However, our preferred solution to reconcile the presence of <3.5 Gya rivers and lakes on Mars with the limited potential for CO2 loss to space is a large, as yet undiscovered, geological C sink on Mars.

Transiting planets with radii 2-3 $R_\bigoplus$ are much more numerous than larger planets. We propose that this drop-off is so abrupt because at $R$ $\sim$ 3 $R_\bigoplus$, base-of-atmosphere pressure is high enough for the atmosphere to readily dissolve into magma, and this sequestration acts as a strong brake on further growth. The viability of this idea is demonstrated using a simple model. Our results support extensive magma-atmosphere equilibration on sub-Neptunes, with numerous implications for sub-Neptune formation and atmospheric chemistry., Comment: Accepted by Astrophysical Journal Letters

The upcoming launch of the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) means that we will soon have the capability to characterize the atmospheres of rocky exoplanets. However, it is still unknown whether such planets orbiting close to M dwarf stars can retain their atmospheres, or whether high-energy irradiation from the star will strip the gaseous envelopes from these objects. We present a new method to detect an atmosphere on a synchronously rotating rocky exoplanet around a K/M dwarf, by using thermal emission during secondary eclipse to infer a high dayside albedo that could only be explained by bright clouds. Based on calculations for plausible surface conditions, we conclude that a high albedo could be unambiguously interpreted as a signal of an atmosphere for planets with substellar temperatures of $T_{sub}=$ 410-1250 K. This range corresponds to equilibrium temperatures of $T_{eq}=$ 300-880 K. We compare the inferred albedos of eight possible planet surface compositions to cloud albedo calculations. We determine that a layer of clouds with optical depths greater than $\tau=0.5$-$7$, would have high enough albedos to be distinguishable from a bare rock surface. This method of detecting an atmosphere on a rocky planet is complementary to existing methods for detecting atmospheres, because it provides a way to detect atmospheres with pressures below 1 bar (e.g. Mars), which are too tenuous to transport significant heat but thick enough to host high-albedo clouds., Comment: Accepted to ApJ. Also see these three companion papers: 1. Koll et al (accepted to ApJ), "Identifying Candidate Atmospheres on Rocky M Dwarf Planets Via Eclipse Photometry", 2. Malik et al (accepted to ApJ), "Analyzing Atmospheric Temperature Profiles and Spectra of M dwarf Rocky Planets", and 3. Koll (accepted to ApJ) "A Scaling Theory for Atmospheric Heat Redistribution on Rocky Exoplanets"

Ancient hydrology is recorded by sedimentary rocks on Mars. The most voluminous sedimentary rocks that formed during Mars' Hesperian period are sulfate-rich rocks, explored by the $Opportunity$ rover from 2004-2012 and soon to be investigated by the $Curiosity$ rover at Gale crater. A leading hypothesis for the origin of these sulfates is that the cations were derived from evaporation of deep-sourced groundwater, as part of a global circulation of groundwater. Global groundwater circulation would imply sustained warm Earthlike conditions on Early Mars. Global circulation of groundwater including infiltration of water initially in equilibrium with Mars' CO$_2$ atmosphere implies subsurface formation of carbonate. We find that the CO$_2$ sequestration implied by the global groundwater hypothesis for the origin of sulfate-rich rocks on Mars is 30-5000 bars if the $Opportunity$ data are representative of Hesperian sulfate-rich rocks, which is so large that (even accounting for volcanic outgassing) it would bury the atmosphere. This disfavors the hypothesis that the cations for Mars' Hesperian sulfates were derived from upwelling of deep sourced groundwater. If, instead, Hesperian sulfate-rich rocks are approximated as pure Mg-sulfate (no Fe), then the CO$_2$ sequestration is 0.3-400 bars. The low end of this range is consistent with the hypothesis that the cations for Mars' Hesperian sulfates were derived from upwelling of deep sourced groundwater. In both cases, carbon sequestration by global groundwater circulation actively works to terminate surface habitability, rather than being a passive marker of warm Earthlike conditions. $Curiosity$ will soon be in a position to discriminate between these two hypotheses. Our work links Mars sulfate cation composition, carbon isotopes, and climate change., Comment: Accepted by Earth & Planetary Science Letters. 5 figures

The dynamics of Mars' obliquity are believed to be chaotic, and the historical ~3.5 Gyr (late-Hesperian onward) obliquity probability density function (PDF) is high uncertain and cannot be inferred from direct simulation alone. Obliquity is also a strong control on post-Noachian Martian climate, enhancing the potential for equatorial ice/snow melting and runoff at high obliquities (> 40{\deg}) and enhancing the potential for desiccation of deep aquifers at low obliquities (< 25{\deg}). We developed a new technique using the orientations of elliptical craters to constrain the true late-Hesperian-onward obliquity PDF. To do so, we developed a forward model of the effect of obliquity on elliptic crater orientations using ensembles of simulated Mars impactors and ~3.5 Gyr-long Mars obliquity simulations. In our model, the inclinations and speeds of Mars crossing objects bias the preferred orientation of elliptic craters which are formed by low-angle impacts. Comparison of our simulation predictions with a validated database of elliptic crater orientations allowed us to invert for best-fitting obliquity history. We found that since the onset of the late-Hesperian, Mars' mean obliquity was likely low, between ~10{\deg} and ~30{\deg}, and the fraction of time spent at high obliquities > 40{\deg} was likely < 20%.

Provided that sufficient resources are deployed, we can look forward to an extraordinary future in which we will characterize potentially habitable planets. Until now, we have had to base interpretations of observations on habitability hypotheses that have remained untested. To test these theories observationally, we propose a statistical comparative planetology approach to questions of planetary habitability. The key objective of this approach will be to make quick and cheap measurements of critical planetary characteristics on a large sample of exoplanets, exploiting statistical marginalization to answer broad habitability questions. This relaxes the requirement of obtaining multiple types of data for a given planet, as it allows us to test a given hypothesis from only one type of measurement using the power of an ensemble. This approach contrasts with a "systems science" approach, where a few planets would be extensively studied with many types of measurements. A systems science approach is associated with a number of difficulties which may limit overall scientific return, including: the limited spectral coverage and noise of instruments, the diversity of exoplanets, and the extensive list of potential false negatives and false positives. A statistical approach could also be complementary to a systems science framework by providing context to interpret extensive measurements on planets of particular interest. We strongly recommend future missions with a focus on exoplanet characterization, and with the capability to study large numbers of planets in a homogenous way, rather than exclusively small, intense studies directed at a small sample of planets., Comment: White paper submitted in response to the solicitation of feedback for the "2020 Decadal Survey" by the National Academy of Sciences

Early Mars climate research has well-defined goals (Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group 2018). Achieving these goals requires geologists and climate modelers to coordinate. Coordination is easier if results are expressed in terms of well-defined parameters. Key parameters include the following quantitative geologic constraints. (1) Cumulative post-3.4 Ga precipitation-sourced water runoff in some places exceeded 1 km column. (2) There is no single Early Mars climate problem: the traces of $\ge$2 river-forming periods are seen. Relative to rivers that formed earlier in Mars history, rivers that formed later in Mars history are found preferentially at lower elevations, and show a stronger dependence on latitude. (3) The duration of the longest individual river-forming climate was >(10$^2$-10$^3$) yr, based on paleolake hydrology. (4) Peak runoff production was >0.1 mm/hr. However, (5) peak runoff production was intermittent, sustained (in a given catchment) for only <10% of the duration of river-forming climates. (6) The cumulative number of wet years during the valley-network-forming period was >10$^5$ yr. (7) Post-Noachian light-toned, layered sedimentary rocks took >10$^7$ yr to accumulate. However, (8) an "average" place on Mars saw water for <10$^7$ yr after the Noachian, suggesting that the river-forming climates were interspersed with long globally-dry intervals. (9) Geologic proxies for Early Mars atmospheric pressure indicate pressure was not less than 0.012 bar but not much more than 1 bar. A truth table of these geologic constraints versus currently published climate models shows that the late persistence of river-forming climates, combined with the long duration of individual lake forming climates, is a challenge for most models., Comment: Accepted by Space Science Reviews

Post-Noachian Martian paleochannels indicate the existence of liquid water on the surface of Mars after about 3.5 Gya (Irwin et al., 2015; Palucis et al., 2016). In order to explore the effects of variations in CO$_{2}$ partial pressure and obliquity on the possibility of surface water, we created a zero-dimensional surface energy balance model. We combine this model with physically consistent orbital histories to track conditions over the last 3.5 Gyr of Martian history. We find that melting is allowed for atmospheric pressures corresponding to exponential loss rates of $dP/dt \propto t^{-3.73}$ or faster, but this rate is within $0.5 \sigma$ of the rate calculated from initial measurements made by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) mission, if we assume all the escaping oxygen measured by MAVEN comes from atmospheric CO$_{2}$ (Lillis et al., 2017; Tu et al., 2015). Melting at this loss rate matches selected key geologic constraints on the formation of Hesperian river networks, assuming optimal melt conditions during the warmest part of each Mars year (Irwin et al., 2015; Stopar et al., 2006; Kite et al., 2017a,b). The atmospheric pressure has a larger effect on the surface energy than changes in Mars's mean obliquity. These results show that initial measurements of atmosphere loss by MAVEN are consistent with atmospheric loss being the dominant process that switched Mars from a melt-permitting to a melt-absent climate (Jakosky et al., 2017), but non-CO$_{2}$ warming will be required if $<2$ Gya paleochannels are confirmed, or if most of the escaping oxygen measured by MAVEN comes from H$_{2}$O., Comment: 12 pages, 8 figures, accepted to JGR Planets

Recent discoveries imply that Early Mars was habitable for life-as-we-know-it; that Enceladus might be habitable; and that many stars have Earth-sized exoplanets whose insolation favors surface liquid water. These exciting discoveries make it more likely that spacecraft now under construction - Mars 2020, ExoMars rover, JWST, Europa Clipper - will find habitable, or formerly habitable, environments. Did these environments see life? Given finite resources (\$10bn/decade for the US ), how could we best test the hypothesis of a second origin of life? Here, we first state the case for and against flying life detection missions soon. Next, we assume that life detection missions will happen soon, and propose a framework for comparing the value of different life detection missions: Scientific value = (Reach x grasp x certainty x payoff) / \$ After discussing each term in this framework, we conclude that scientific value is maximized if life detection missions are flown as hypothesis tests. With hypothesis testing, even a nondetection is scientifically valuable., Comment: Accepted by "Astrobiology."

Most of Mars' ancient sedimentary rocks by volume are in wind-eroded sedimentary mounds, but the connections between mound form and wind erosion are unclear. We perform mesoscale simulations of different crater and mound morphologies to understand the formation of sedimentary mounds. As crater depth increases, slope winds produce increased erosion near the base of the crater wall, forming mounds. Peak erosion rates occur when the crater depth is ~2 km. Mound evolution depends on the size of the host crater. In smaller craters mounds preferentially erode at the top, becoming more squat, while in larger craters mounds become steeper-sided. This agrees with observations where smaller craters tend to have proportionally shorter mounds, and larger craters have mounds encircled by moats. If a large-scale sedimentary layer blankets a crater, then as the layer recedes across the crater it will erode more towards the edges of the crater, resulting in a crescent-shaped moat. When a 160 km diameter mound-hosting crater is subject to a prevailing wind, the surface wind stress is stronger on the leeward side than on the windward side. This results in the center of the mound appearing to `march upwind' over time, and forming a `bat-wing' shape, as is observed for Mt. Sharp in Gale crater., Comment: Accepted for publication by JGR Planets, 31 pages, 16 figures

Many habitable zone exoplanets are expected to form with water mass fractions higher than that of the Earth. For rocky exoplanets with 10-1000x Earth's H2O but without H2, we model the multi-Gyr evolution of ocean temperature and chemistry, taking into account C partitioning, high-pressure ice phases, and atmosphere-lithosphere exchange. Within our model, for Sun-like stars, we find that: (1)~the duration of habitable surface water is strongly affected by ocean chemistry; (2)~possible ocean pH spans a wide range; (3)~surprisingly, many waterworlds retain habitable surface water for >1 Gyr, and (contrary to previous claims) this longevity does not necessarily involve geochemical cycling. The key to this cycle-independent planetary habitability is that C exchange between the convecting mantle and the water ocean is curtailed by seafloor pressure on waterworlds, so the planet is stuck with the ocean mass and ocean cations that it acquires during the first 1% of its history. In our model, the sum of positive charges leached from the planetary crust by early water-rock interactions is - coincidentally - often within an order of magnitude of the early-acquired atmosphere+ocean inorganic C inventory overlaps. As a result, pCO2 is frequently in the "sweet spot" (0.2-20 bar) for which the range of semimajor axis that permits surface liquid water is about as wide as it can be. Because the width of the HZ in semimajor axis defines (for Sun-like stars) the maximum possible time span of surface habitability, this effect allows for Gyr of habitability as the star brightens. We illustrate our findings by using the output of an ensemble of N-body simulations as input to our waterworld evolution code. Thus (for the first time in an end-to-end calculation) we show that chance variation of initial conditions, with no need for geochemical cycling, can yield multi-Gyr surface habitability on waterworlds.

Unraveling the stratigraphic record is the key to understanding ancient climate and past climate changes on Mars. River deposits when placed in stratigraphic order could constrain the number, magnitudes, and durations of the wettest climates in Mars history. We establish the stratigraphic context of river deposits in Aeolis Dorsa sedimentary basin, 10E of Gale crater. Here, wind has exhumed a stratigraphic section of >=4 unconformity-bounded sedimentary rock packages, recording >=3 distinct episodes of surface runoff. Early deposits (>700m thick) are embayed by river deposits (>400m), which are in turn unconformably draped by fan-shaped deposits (<100m) which we interpret as alluvial fans. Yardang-forming deposits (>900 m) unconformably drape all previous deposits. River deposits embay a dissected sedimentary-rock landscape, and comprise >=2 distinguishable units. The total interval spanned by river deposits is >(1x10^6-2x10^7) yr; more if we include alluvial-fan deposits. Alluvial-fan deposits unconformably postdate thrust faults which crosscut river deposits. We infer a relatively dry interval of >4x10^7 yr after river deposits formed and before fan-shaped deposits formed. The time gap between the end of river deposition and the onset of yardang-forming deposits is constrained to >10^8 yr by the density of impact craters embedded at the unconformity. We correlate yardang-forming deposits to the upper layers of Gale crater's mound (Mt. Sharp/Aeolis Mons), and fan-shaped deposits to Peace Vallis fan. Alternations between periods of low vs. high mean obliquity may have modulated erosion-deposition cycling in Aeolis. This is consistent with results from an ensemble of simulations of Solar System orbital evolution and the resulting history of Mars obliquity. Almost all simulations yield intervals of continuously low mean Mars obliquity that are long enough to match our unconformity data.

Chloride-bearing deposits on Mars record high-elevation lakes during the waning stages of Mars' wet era (mid-Noachian to late Hesperian). The water source pathways, seasonality, salinity, depth, lifetime, and paleoclimatic drivers of these widespread lakes are all unknown. Here we combine reaction-transport modeling, orbital spectroscopy, and new volume estimates from high-resolution digital terrain models, in order to constrain the hydrologic boundary conditions for forming the chlorides. Considering a T = 0 degrees C system, we find: (1) individual lakes were >100 m deep and lasted decades or longer; (2) if volcanic degassing was the source of chlorine, then the water-to-rock ratio or the total water volume were probably low, consistent with brief excursions above the melting point and/or arid climate; (3) if the chlorine source was igneous chlorapatite, then Cl-leaching events would require a (cumulative) time of >10 yr at the melting point; (4) Cl masses, divided by catchment area, give column densities 0.1 - 50 kg Cl/m^2, and these column densities bracket the expected chlorapatite-Cl content for a seasonally-warm active layer. Deep groundwater was not required. Taken together, our results are consistent with Mars having a usually cold, horizontally segregated hydrosphere by the time chlorides formed., Comment: 46 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables

A candidate explanation for Early Mars rivers is atmospheric warming due to surface release of H$_2$ or CH$_4$ gas. However, it remains unknown how much gas could be released in a single event. We model the CH$_4$ release by one mechanism for rapid release of CH$_4$ from clathrate. By modeling how CH$_4$-clathrate release is affected by changes in Mars' obliquity and atmospheric composition, we find that a large fraction of total outgassing from CH$_4$ clathrate occurs following Mars' first prolonged atmospheric collapse. This atmosphere-collapse-initiated CH$_4$-release mechanism has three stages. (1) Rapid collapse of Early Mars' carbon dioxide atmosphere initiates a slower shift of water ice from high ground to the poles. (2) Upon subsequent CO$_2$-atmosphere re-inflation and CO$_2$-greenhouse warming, low-latitude clathrate decomposes and releases methane gas. (3) Methane can then perturb atmospheric chemistry and surface temperature, until photochemical processes destroy the methane. Within our model, we find that under some circumstances a Titan-like haze layer would be expected to form, consistent with transient deposition of abundant complex abiotic organic matter on the Early Mars surface. We also find that this CH$_4$-release mechanism can warm Early Mars, but special circumstances are required in order to uncork 10$^{17}$ kg of CH$_4$, the minimum needed for strong warming. Specifically, strong warming only occurs when the fraction of the hydrate stability zone that is initially occupied by clathrate exceeds 10%, and when Mars' first prolonged atmospheric collapse occurs for atmospheric pressure > 1 bar., Comment: Accepted by Planetary and Space Science

River deposits are one of the main lines of evidence that tell us that Mars once had a climate different from today, and so changes in river deposits with time tell us something about how Mars climate changed with time. In this study, we focus in on one sedimentary basin - Aeolis Dorsa - which contains an exceptionally high number of exceptionally well-preserved river deposits that appear to have formed over an interval of $>$0.5 Myr. We use changes in the river deposits' scale with stratigraphic elevation as a proxy for changes in river paleodischarge. Meander wavelengths tighten upwards and channel widths narrow upwards, and there is some evidence for a return to wide large-wavelength channels higher in the stratigraphy. Meander wavelength and channel width covary with stratigraphic elevation. The factor of 1.5-2 variations in paleochannel dimensions with stratigraphic elevation correspond to $\sim$2.6-fold variability in bank-forming discharge (using standard wavelength-discharge scalings and width-discharge scalings). Taken together with evidence from a marker bed for discharge variability at $\sim$10m stratigraphic distances, the variation in the scale of river deposits indicates that bank-forming discharge varied at both 10m stratigraphic (10$^2$ - 10$^6$ yr) and $\sim$100 m stratigraphic (10$^3$ - 10$^9$ yr) scales. Because these variations are correlated across the basin, they record a change in basin-scale forcing, rather than smaller-scale internal feedbacks. Changing sediment input leading to a change in characteristic slopes and/or drainage area could be responsible, and another possibility is changing climate ($\pm$50 W/m$^2$ in peak energy available for snow/ice melt).

We present a new database of $>$300 layer-orientations from sedimentary mounds on Mars. These layer orientations, together with draped landslides, and draping of rocks over differentially-eroded paleo-domes, indicate that for the stratigraphically-uppermost $\sim$1 km, the mounds formed by the accretion of draping strata in a mound-shape. The layer-orientation data further suggest that layers lower down in the stratigraphy also formed by the accretion of draping strata in a mound-shape. The data are consistent with terrain-influenced wind erosion, but inconsistent with tilting by flexure, differential compaction over basement, or viscoelastic rebound. We use a simple landscape evolution model to show how the erosion and deposition of mound strata can be modulated by shifts in obliquity. The model is driven by multi-Gyr calculations of Mars' chaotic obliquity and a parameterization of terrain-influenced wind erosion that is derived from mesoscale modeling. Our results suggest that mound-spanning unconformities with kilometers of relief emerge as the result of chaotic obliquity shifts. Our results support the interpretation that Mars' rocks record intermittent liquid-water runoff during a $>$10$^8$-yr interval of sedimentary rock emplacement.

Large alluvial fan deposits on Mars record relatively recent habitable surface conditions ($\lesssim$3.5 Ga, Late Hesperian - Amazonian). We find net sedimentation rate <(4-8) {\mu}m/yr in the alluvial-fan deposits, using the frequency of craters that are interbedded with alluvial-fan deposits as a fluvial-process chronometer. Considering only the observed interbedded craters sets a lower bound of >20 Myr on the total time interval spanned by alluvial-fan aggradation, >10^3-fold longer than previous lower limits. A more realistic approach that corrects for craters fully entombed in the fan deposits raises the lower bound to >(100-300) Myr. Several factors not included in our calculations would further increase the lower bound. The lower bound rules out fan-formation by a brief climate anomaly. Therefore, during the Late Hesperian - Amazonian on Mars, persistent or repeated processes permitted habitable surface conditions.

Lakes existed on Mars later than 3.6 billion years ago, according to sedimentary evidence for deltaic deposition. The observed fluvio-lacustrine deposits suggest that individual lake-forming climates persisted for at least several thousand years (assuming dilute flow). But the lake watersheds' little weathered soils indicate a largely dry climate history, with intermittent runoff events. Here we show that these observational constraints, while inconsistent with many previously-proposed triggers for lake-forming climates, are consistent with a methane burst scenario. In this scenario, chaotic transitions in mean obliquity drive latitudinal shifts in temperature and ice loading that destabilize methane clathrate. Using numerical simulations, we find that outgassed methane can build up to atmospheric levels sufficient for lake forming climates, for past clathrate hydrate stability zone occupancy fractions >0.04. Such occupancy fractions are consistent with methane production by water-rock reactions due to hydrothermal circulation on early Mars. We further estimate that photochemical destruction of atmospheric methane curtails the duration of individual lake-forming climates to less than a million years, consistent with observations. We conclude that methane bursts represent a potential pathway for intermittent excursions to a warm, wet climate state on early Mars.

Small-crater counts on Mars light-toned sedimentary rock are often inconsistent with any isochron; these data are usually plotted then ignored. We show (using an 18-HiRISE-image, >10^4 crater dataset) that these non-isochron crater counts are often well-fit by a model where crater production is balanced by crater obliteration via steady exhumation. For these regions, we fit erosion rates. We infer that Mars light-toned sedimentary rocks typically erode at ~10^2 nm/yr, when averaged over 10 km^2 scales and 10^7-10^8 yr timescales. Crater-based erosion-rate determination is consistent with independent techniques, but can be applied to nearly all light-toned sedimentary rocks on Mars. Erosion is swift enough that radiolysis cannot destroy complex organic matter at some locations (e.g. paleolake deposits at SW Melas), but radiolysis is a severe problem at other locations (e.g. Oxia Planum). The data suggest that the relief of the Valles Marineris mounds is currently being reduced by wind erosion, and that dust production on Mars <3 Gya greatly exceeds the modern reservoir of mobile dust., Comment: Accepted by Icarus. 8 figures

We provide estimates of atmospheric pressure and surface composition on short-period rocky exoplanets with dayside magma pools and silicate vapor atmospheres. Atmospheric pressure tends toward vapor-pressure equilibrium with surface magma, and magma-surface composition is set by the competing effects of fractional vaporization and surface-interior exchange. We use basic models to show how surface-interior exchange is controlled by the planet's temperature, mass, and initial composition. We assume that mantle rock undergoes bulk melting to form the magma pool, and that winds flow radially away from the substellar point. With these assumptions, we find that: (1) atmosphere-interior exchange is fast when the planet's bulk-silicate FeO concentration is low, and slow when FeO concentration is high; (2) magma pools are compositionally well-mixed for substellar temperatures $\lesssim$ 2400 K, but compositionally variegated and rapidly variable for substellar temperatures $\gtrsim$ 2400 K; (3) currents within the magma pool tend to cool the top of the solid mantle ("tectonic refrigeration"); (4) contrary to earlier work, many magma planets have time-variable surface compositions., Comment: Accepted for publication by ApJ, 21 pages, 19 figures

Spacecraft observations suggest that the plumes of Saturn's moon Enceladus draw water from a subsurface ocean, but the sustainability of conduits linking ocean and surface is not understood. Observations show sustained (though tidally modulated) fissure eruptions throughout each orbit, and since the 2005 discovery of the plumes. Peak plume flux lags peak tidal extension by $\sim$1 radian, suggestive of resonance. Here we show that a model of the tiger stripes as tidally-flexed slots that puncture the ice shell can simultaneously explain the persistence of the eruptions through the tidal cycle, the phase lag, and the total power output of the tiger stripe terrain, while suggesting that the eruptions are maintained over geological timescales. The delay associated with flushing and refilling of \emph{O}(1) m-wide slots with ocean water causes erupted flux to lag tidal forcing and helps to buttress slots against closure, while tidally pumped in-slot flow leads to heating and mechanical disruption that staves off slot freeze-out. Much narrower and much wider slots cannot be sustained. In the presence of long-lived slots, the 10$^6$-yr average power output of the tiger stripes is buffered by a feedback between ice melt-back and subsidence to \emph{O}(10$^{10}$) W, which is similar to the observed power output, suggesting long-term stability. Turbulent dissipation makes testable predictions for the final flybys of Enceladus by the \emph{Cassini} spacecraft. Our model shows how open connections to an ocean can be reconciled with, and sustain, long-lived eruptions. Turbulent dissipation in long-lived slots helps maintain the ocean against freezing, maintains access by future Enceladus missions to ocean materials, and is plausibly the major energy source for tiger stripe activity.