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"Discussions about the consequences of the demographic change for the labour market and the economy have always been influenced by the idea that the unavoidable ageing and shrinking of the population relatively soon results in a lack of labour, a 'demographic change on the labour market', and in a threat to the innovative and growth potential due to the ageing workforce. In the first part, this study analyses the course of the demographic changes, which do not occur linearly, and challenges a number of common prejudices concerning the consequences for the labour supply. In the second part, the labour demand side is examined, using the IAB establishment panel 2002, and the companies' attitudes and behaviour towards older people is examined. The widespread idea of a speedy demographic change on the labour market results from using extreme scenarios. If an average, plausible set of assumptions is used, it becomes obvious that a clearance of the labour market cannot be expected until long after 2020. The ageing of the labour force potential (with the peak of 'baby boomers') is the decisive change on the labour market in the long term as well. The improvement on the labour market for older people which has been visible in the past few years results above all from a temporary demographic effect (apart from measures like partial retirement and legal regulations such as § 428 Social Code III). Besides, the view of the problem of unemployment, which looks set to rise again, is blocked by a number of prejudices (e.g. that all early layoffs are voluntary, or that 'Germany has the lowest labour force participation rate of older people in Europe'). It is rather the case that a number of massive measures have been taken since 1992 to increase the pressure to offer jobs to older people, and these are beginning to show effects now. However, the greatest deficits can be found on the companies' side, the labour demand side. Despite the companies' positive assessment of their own older employees' efficiency, there are hardly any appropriate measures to enhance the fitness for work of their staff. This is also true for other measures that would be important for the labour force potential (e.g. gender equality, promotion of women, promotion of health). However, the lack of willingness to employ older people from the external job market is the biggest problem: about a quarter of German companies frankly admit to discriminating against older people in their recruitment policy." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))

Die Renten- und Arbeitsmarktreformen der letzten zwei Jahrzehnte haben zu mehr Unsicherheit und Ungleichheit in der Alterssicherung geführt. Das wird in den kommenden Jahren weiter zunehmen. Atypische Beschäftigung, steigende Arbeitslosigkeit und ein stark angewachsener Niedriglohnsektor führen zu einem deutlichen Rückgang der Alterssicherungsansprüche. Zusätzliche Risiken ergeben sich aus der Absenkung des Lohnersatzniveaus der gesetzlichen Renten und der Einschränkung von Möglichkeiten eines vorzeitigen Renteneintritts bzw. der Rente mit 67. Auch die ergänzende private Vorsorge wird die Folgen gerade für besonders Betroffene nicht auffangen. Schlechte Erwerbsbiografien führen so direkt zu einem steigenden Armutsrisiko im Alter. Betroffen sind vor allem die heute jüngeren Arbeitnehmer/-innen, zu deren Nutzen die Reformmaßnahmen eigentlich gedacht waren. Die Vermeidung unzureichende Alterssicherung ist allerdings nur durch eine Re-Regulierung des Arbeitsmarkts und eine Rücknahme der langfristig angelegten Absenkung des Leistungsniveaus der gesetzlichen Rente zu erreichen.