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This paper presents the data (images, observations, metadata) of three different deployments of camera traps in the Amsterdam Water Supply Dunes, a Natura 2000 nature reserve in the coastal dunes of the Netherlands. The pilots were aimed at determining how different types of camera deployment (e.g. regular vs. wide lens, various heights, inside/outside exclosures) might influence species detections, and how to deploy autonomous wildlife monitoring networks. Two pilots were conducted in herbivore exclosures and mainly detected European rabbits ( Oryctolagus cuniculus ) and red fox ( Vulpes vulpes ). The third pilot was conducted outside exclosures, with the European fallow deer ( Dama dama ) being most prevalent. Across all three pilots, a total of 47,597 images were annotated using the Agouti platform. All annotations were verified and quality-checked by a human expert. A total of 2,779 observations of 20 different species (including humans) were observed using 11 wildlife cameras during 2021-2023. The raw image files (excluding humans), image metadata, deployment metadata and observations from each pilot are shared using the Camtrap DP open standard and the extended data publishing capabilities of GBIF to increase the findability, accessibility, interoperability, and reusability of this data. The data are freely available and can be used for developing artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms that automatically detect and identify species from wildlife camera images., (© 2024 The Authors.)

The aim of UNESCO Global Geoparks (UGGs) is to protect globally significant geoheritage and geodiversity, but quantitative evidence on the global representativeness of geodiversity components (i.e. geology, soils, geomorphology and hydrology) in these geoparks is in short supply. Here, we provide a first assessment by deriving a global map of geodiversity to test whether the presence of geodiversity components in UGGs is representative for the global availability and distribution of geodiversity. Using openly accessible global datasets and a newly developed workflow, we have calculated metrics for each geodiversity component and a global geodiversity index; we then quantified whether UGGs represent global geodiversity and then compared their components to a randomized spatial distribution of geoparks. Our results show that lithological and topographical diversity are more represented in UGGs than outside these sites, while soil type and hydrological diversity are not significantly different. Furthermore, individual soil types and lithological classes are under-represented and unevenly distributed in Asian and European UGGs. This is probably caused by the concentration of geoparks in Asian and European mountains. To better conserve geodiversity, we suggest an initiative to consider the protection and representation of all geodiversity components in their global context. This article is part of the Theo Murphy meeting issue 'Geodiversity for science and society'.

Strong paleoclimatic change and few Late Quaternary megafauna extinctions make mainland Africa unique among continents. Here, we hypothesize that, compared with elsewhere, these conditions created the ecological opportunity for the macroevolution and geographic distribution of large fruits. We assembled global phylogenetic, distribution and fruit size data for palms (Arecaceae), a pantropical, vertebrate-dispersed family with > 2600 species, and integrated these with data on extinction-driven body size reduction in mammalian frugivore assemblages since the Late Quaternary. We applied evolutionary trait, linear and null models to identify the selective pressures that have shaped fruit sizes. We show that African palm lineages have evolved towards larger fruit sizes and exhibited faster trait evolutionary rates than lineages elsewhere. Furthermore, the global distribution of the largest palm fruits across species assemblages was explained by occurrence in Africa, especially under low canopies, and extant megafauna, but not by mammalian downsizing. These patterns strongly deviated from expectations under a null model of stochastic (Brownian motion) evolution. Our results suggest that Africa provided a distinct evolutionary arena for palm fruit size evolution. We argue that megafaunal abundance and the expansion of savanna habitat since the Miocene provided selective advantages for the persistence of African plants with large fruits., (© 2023 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2023 New Phytologist Foundation.)

Insular communities are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic extinctions and introductions. Changes in composition of island frugivore communities may affect seed dispersal within the native plant community, risking ecological shifts and ultimately co-extinction cascades. Introduced species could potentially mitigate these risks by replacing ecological functions of extinct species, but conclusive evidence is lacking. Here, we investigate changes in plant-frugivore interactions involving frugivorous birds, mammals and reptiles in Mauritius, an oceanic island with an exceptionally well-specified frugivore community and well-described species introduction history. We demonstrate substantial losses of binary interaction partnerships (at the species level) resulting from native species extinctions, but also gains of equal numbers of novel interactions with introduced species, potentially supporting the idea that non-native species might compensate for lost seed dispersal. However, closer investigation of animal seed handling behaviour reveals that most interactions with seed dispersers are replaced by ecologically different interactions with seed predators. Therefore, restoration of seed dispersal functionality in this novel plant-frugivore community is unlikely., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

The third Dutch national airborne laser scanning flight campaign (AHN3, Actueel Hoogtebestand Nederland) conducted between 2014 and 2019 during the leaf-off season (October-April) across the whole Netherlands provides a free and open-access, country-wide dataset with ∼700 billion points and a point density of ∼10(-20) points/m 2 . The AHN3 point cloud was obtained with Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) technology and contains for each point the x, y, z coordinates and additional characteristics (e.g. return number, intensity value, scan angle rank and GPS time). Moreover, the point cloud has been pre-processed by 'Rijkswaterstraat' (the executive agency of the Dutch Ministry of Infrastructure and Water Management), comes with a Digital Terrain Model (DTM) and a Digital Surface Model (DSM), and is delivered with a pre-classification of each point into one of six classes (0: Never Classified, 1: Unclassified, 2: Ground, 6: Building, 9: Water, 26: Reserved [bridges etc.]). However, no detailed information on vegetation structure is available from the AHN3 point cloud. We processed the AHN3 point cloud (∼16 TB uncompressed data volume) into 10 m resolution raster layers of ecosystem structure at a national extent, using a novel high-throughput workflow called 'Laserfarm' and a cluster of virtual machines with fast central processing units, high memory nodes and associated big data storage for managing the large amount of files. The raster layers (available as GeoTIFF files) capture 25 LiDAR metrics of vegetation structure, including ecosystem height (e.g. 95 th percentiles of normalized z), ecosystem cover (e.g. pulse penetration ratio, canopy cover, and density of vegetation points within defined height layers), and ecosystem structural complexity (e.g. skewness and variability of vertical vegetation point distribution). The raster layers make use of the Dutch projected coordinate system (EPSG:28992 Amersfoort / RD New), are each ∼1 GB in size, and can be readily used by ecologists in a geographic information system (GIS) or analytical open-source software such as R and Python. Even though the class '1: Unclassified' mainly includes vegetation points, other objects such as cars, fences, and boats can also be present in this class, introducing potential biases in the derived data products. We therefore validated the raster layers of ecosystem structure using >180,000 hand-labelled LiDAR points in 100 randomly selected sample plots (10 m × 10 m each) across the Netherlands. Besides vegetation, objects such as boats, fences, and cars were identified in the sampled plots. However, the misclassification rate of vegetation points (i.e. non-vegetation points that were assumed to be vegetation) was low (∼0.05) and the accuracy of the 25 LiDAR metrics derived from the AHN3 point cloud was high (∼90%). To minimize existing inaccuracies in this country-wide data product (e.g. ships on water bodies, chimneys on roofs, or cars on roads that might be incorrectly used as vegetation points), we provide an additional mask that captures water bodies, buildings and roads generated from the Dutch cadaster dataset. This newly generated country-wide ecosystem structure data product provides new opportunities for ecology and biodiversity science, e.g. for mapping the 3D vegetation structure of a variety of ecosystems or for modelling biodiversity, species distributions, abundance and ecological niches of animals and their habitats., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (© 2022 The Author(s).)

Motivation: Historical changes in sea level caused shifting coastlines that affected the distribution and evolution of marine and terrestrial biota. At the onset of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) 26 ka, sea levels were >130 m lower than at present, resulting in seaward-shifted coastlines and shallow shelf seas, with emerging land bridges leading to the isolation of marine biota and the connection of land-bridge islands to the continents. At the end of the last ice age, sea levels started to rise at unprecedented rates, leading to coastal retreat, drowning of land bridges and contraction of island areas. Although a growing number of studies take historical coastline dynamics into consideration, they are mostly based on past global sea-level stands and present-day water depths and neglect the influence of global geophysical changes on historical coastline positions. Here, we present a novel geophysically corrected global historical coastline position raster for the period from 26 ka to the present. This coastline raster allows, for the first time, calculation of global and regional coastline retreat rates and land loss rates. Additionally, we produced, per time step, 53 shelf sea rasters to present shelf sea positions and to calculate the shelf sea expansion rates. These metrics are essential to assess the role of isolation and connectivity in shaping marine and insular biodiversity patterns and evolutionary signatures within species and species assemblages., Main Types of Variables Contained: The coastline age raster contains cells with ages in thousands of years before present (bp), representing the time since the coastline was positioned in the raster cells, for the period between 26 ka and the present. A total of 53 shelf sea rasters (sea levels <140 m) are presented, showing the extent of land (1), shelf sea (0) and deep sea (NULL) per time step of 0.5 kyr from 26 ka to the present., Spatial Location and Grain: The coastline age raster and shelf sea rasters have a global representation. The spatial resolution is scaled to 120 arcsec (0.333° × 0.333°), implying cells of c . 3,704 m around the equator, 3,207 m around the tropics (±30°) and 1,853 m in the temperate zone (±60°)., Time Period and Temporal Resolution: The coastline age raster shows the age of coastline positions since the onset of the LGM 26 ka, with time steps of 0.5 kyr. The 53 shelf sea rasters show, for each time step of 0.5 kyr, the position of the shelf seas (seas shallower than 140 m) and the extent of land., Level of Measurement: Both the coastline age raster and the 53 shelf sea rasters are provided as TIFF files with spatial reference system WGS84 (SRID 4326). The values of the coastline age raster per grid cell correspond to the most recent coastline position (in steps of 0.5 kyr). Values range from 0 (0 ka, i.e., present day) to 260 (26 ka) in bins of 5 (0.5 kyr). A value of "no data" is ascribed to pixels that have remained below sea level since 26 ka., Software Format: All data processing was done using the R programming language., (© 2022 The Authors. Global Ecology and Biogeography published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Protecting nature's contributions to people requires accelerating extinction risk assessment and better integrating evolutionary, functional and used diversity with conservation planning. Here, we report machine learning extinction risk predictions for 1,381 palm species (Arecaceae), a plant family of high socio-economic and ecological importance. We integrate these predictions with published assessments for 508 species (covering 75% of all palm species) and we identify top-priority regions for palm conservation on the basis of their proportion of threatened evolutionarily distinct, functionally distinct and used species. Finally, we explore palm use resilience to identify non-threatened species that could potentially serve as substitutes for threatened used species by providing similar products. We estimate that over a thousand palms (56%) are probably threatened, including 185 species with documented uses. Some regions (New Guinea, Vanuatu and Vietnam) emerge as top ten priorities for conservation only after incorporating machine learning extinction risk predictions. Potential substitutes are identified for 91% of the threatened used species and regional use resilience increases with total palm richness. However, 16 threatened used species lack potential substitutes and 30 regions lack substitutes for at least one of their threatened used palm species. Overall, we show that hundreds of species of this keystone family face extinction, some of them probably irreplaceable, at least locally. This highlights the need for urgent actions to avoid major repercussions on palm-associated ecosystem processes and human livelihoods in the coming decades., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Tropical forests are some of the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world, yet their functioning is threatened by anthropogenic disturbances and climate change. Global actions to conserve tropical forests could be enhanced by having local knowledge on the forests' functional diversity and functional redundancy as proxies for their capacity to respond to global environmental change. Here we create estimates of plant functional diversity and redundancy across the tropics by combining a dataset of 16 morphological, chemical and photosynthetic plant traits sampled from 2,461 individual trees from 74 sites distributed across four continents together with local climate data for the past half century. Our findings suggest a strong link between climate and functional diversity and redundancy with the three trait groups responding similarly across the tropics and climate gradient. We show that drier tropical forests are overall less functionally diverse than wetter forests and that functional redundancy declines with increasing soil water and vapour pressure deficits. Areas with high functional diversity and high functional redundancy tend to better maintain ecosystem functioning, such as aboveground biomass, after extreme weather events. Our predictions suggest that the lower functional diversity and lower functional redundancy of drier tropical forests, in comparison with wetter forests, may leave them more at risk of shifting towards alternative states in face of further declines in water availability across tropical regions., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)

Ambitious conservation efforts are needed to stop the global biodiversity crisis. In this study, we estimate the minimum land area to secure important biodiversity areas, ecologically intact areas, and optimal locations for representation of species ranges and ecoregions. We discover that at least 64 million square kilometers (44% of terrestrial area) would require conservation attention (ranging from protected areas to land-use policies) to meet this goal. More than 1.8 billion people live on these lands, so responses that promote autonomy, self-determination, equity, and sustainable management for safeguarding biodiversity are essential. Spatially explicit land-use scenarios suggest that 1.3 million square kilometers of this land is at risk of being converted for intensive human land uses by 2030, which requires immediate attention. However, a sevenfold difference exists between the amount of habitat converted in optimistic and pessimistic land-use scenarios, highlighting an opportunity to avert this crisis. Appropriate targets in the Post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework to encourage conservation of the identified land would contribute substantially to safeguarding biodiversity.

The Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K-Pg) extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs (66 Ma) led to a 25 million year gap of megaherbivores (>1000 kg) before the evolution of megaherbivorous mammals in the Late Eocene (40 Ma). The botanical consequences of this 'Palaeocene megaherbivore gap' (PMHG) remain poorly explored. We hypothesize that the absence of megaherbivores should result in changes in the diversification and trait evolution of associated plant lineages. We used phylogenetic time- and trait-dependent diversification models with palms (Arecaceae) and show that the PMHG was characterized by speciation slowdowns, decreased evolution of armature and increased evolution of megafaunal (≥4 cm) fruits. This suggests that the absence of browsing by megaherbivores during the PMHG may have led to a loss of defence traits, but the absence of megaherbivorous seed dispersers did not lead to a loss of megafaunal fruits. Instead, increases in PMHG fruit sizes may be explained by simultaneously rising temperatures, rainforest expansion, and the subsequent radiation of seed-dispersing birds and mammals. We show that the profound impact of the PMHG on plant diversification can be detected even with the overwriting of adaptations by the subsequent Late Eocene opening up of megaherbivore-associated ecological opportunities. Our study provides a quantitative, comparative framework to assess diversification and adaptation during one of the most enigmatic periods in angiosperm history.

Frugivory, that is feeding on fruits, pulp or seeds by animals, is usually considered a mutualism when interactions involve seed dispersal, and an antagonism when it results in the predation and destruction of seeds. Nevertheless, most frugivory interactions involve both benefits and disadvantages for plants, and the net interaction outcomes thus tend to vary along a continuum from mutualism to antagonism. Quantifying outcome variation is challenging and the ecological contribution of frugivorous animals to plant demography thus remains little explored. This is particularly true for interactions in which animals do not ingest entire fruits, that is in seed-eating and pulp-eating. Here, we provide a comprehensive review of Neotropical palm-frugivore interactions, with a focus on how frugivore consumption behaviour (i.e. digestive processing, fruit-handling ability and caching behaviour) and feeding types (fruit-eating, pulp-eating and seed-eating) influence interaction outcomes at different demographic stages of palms. We compiled a total of 1043 species-level palm-frugivore interaction records that explicitly captured information on which parts of palm fruits are eaten by animals. These records showed consumption of fruits of 106 Neotropical palm species by 273 vertebrate species, especially birds (50%) and mammals (45%), but also fish (3%) and reptiles (2%). Fruit-eating involved all four taxonomic vertebrate classes whereas seed-eating and pulp-eating were only recorded among birds and mammals. Most fruit-eating interactions (77%) resulted in positive interaction outcomes for plants (e.g. gut-passed seeds are viable or seeds are successfully dispersed), regardless of the digestive processing type of vertebrate consumers (seed defecation versus regurgitation). The majority of pulp-eating interactions (91%) also resulted in positive interaction outcomes, for instance via pulp removal that promoted seed germination or via dispersal of intact palm seeds by external transport, especially if animals have a good fruit-handling ability (e.g. primates, and some parrots). By contrast, seed-eating interactions mostly resulted in dual outcomes (60%), where interactions had both negative effects on seed survival and positive outcomes through seed caching and external (non-digestive) seed dispersal. A detailed synthesis of available field studies with qualitative and quantitative information provided evidence that 12 families and 27 species of mammals and birds are predominantly on the mutualistic side of the continuum whereas five mammalian families, six mammal and one reptile species are on the antagonistic side. The synthesis also revealed that most species can act as partial mutualists, even if they are typically considered antagonists. Our review demonstrates how different consumption behaviours and feeding types of vertebrate fruit consumers can influence seed dispersal and regeneration of palms, and thus ultimately affect the structure and functioning of tropical ecosystems. Variation in feeding types of animal consumers will influence ecosystem dynamics via effects on plant population dynamics and differences in long-distance seed dispersal, and may subsequently affect ecosystem functions such as carbon storage. The quantification of intra- and inter-specific variation in outcomes of plant-frugivore interactions - and their positive and negative effects on the seed-to-seedling transition of animal-dispersed plants - should be a key research focus to understand better the mutualism-antagonism continuum and its importance for ecosystem dynamics., (© 2021 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

Monitoring global biodiversity from space through remotely sensing geospatial patterns has high potential to add to our knowledge acquired by field observation. Although a framework of essential biodiversity variables (EBVs) is emerging for monitoring biodiversity, its poor alignment with remote sensing products hinders interpolation between field observations. This study compiles a comprehensive, prioritized list of remote sensing biodiversity products that can further improve the monitoring of geospatial biodiversity patterns, enhancing the EBV framework and its applicability. The ecosystem structure and ecosystem function EBV classes, which capture the biological effects of disturbance as well as habitat structure, are shown by an expert review process to be the most relevant, feasible, accurate and mature for direct monitoring of biodiversity from satellites. Biodiversity products that require satellite remote sensing of a finer resolution that is still under development are given lower priority (for example, for the EBV class species traits). Some EBVs are not directly measurable by remote sensing from space, specifically the EBV class genetic composition. Linking remote sensing products to EBVs will accelerate product generation, improving reporting on the state of biodiversity from local to global scales.

Angiosperms have been essential components of primate diets for millions of years, but the relative importance of different angiosperm families remains unclear. Here, we assess the contribution and ecological and evolutionary significance of plant families to diets of wild primates by compiling an unprecedented dataset of almost 9000 dietary records from 141 primary sources covering 112 primate species. Of the 205 angiosperm plant families recorded in primate diets, only 10 were consumed by more than half of primate species. Plants of the Moraceae and Fabaceae families were the most widely and frequently consumed, and they likely represent keystone resources for primates. Over 75% of species fed on these two families, and together they made up a median of approximately 13% of primate diets. By analysing the relative proportion of different plant parts consumed, we found that Moraceae was mainly eaten as fruit and Fabaceae as non-fruit parts, with the consumption of these two families not showing a significant phylogenetic signal across primate species. Moraceae consumption was associated with small home range sizes, even though more frugivorous primates tended to have larger home ranges compared to more folivorous species, possibly due to the year-round availability of moraceous fruits and the asynchrony in their phenology. Our results suggest that primates may be intricately and subtly shaped by the plant families that they have consumed over millions of years, and highlight the importance of detailed dietary studies to better understand primate ecology and evolution.

Mammalian frugivores are critical seed dispersers, but many are under threat of extinction. Futhermore, the impact of past and future defaunation on plant assemblages has yet to be quantified at the global scale. Here, we integrate palm and mammalian frugivore trait and occurrence data and reveal a global positive relationship between fruit size and frugivore body size. Global variation in fruit size is better explained by present-day frugivore assemblages than by Late Pleistocene assemblages, suggesting ecological and evolutionary reorganization after end-Pleistocene extinctions, except in the Neotropics, where some large-fruited palm species may have outlived their main seed dispersers by thousands of years. Our simulations of frugivore extinction over the next 100 years suggest that the impact of defaunation will be highest in the Old World tropics, and an up to 4% assemblage-level decrease in fruit size would be required to maintain the global body size-fruit size relationship. Overall, our results suggest that while some palm species may be able to keep pace with future defaunation through evolutionary changes in fruit size, large-fruited species may be especially vulnerable to continued defaunation.

Understanding how ecological interactions have shaped the evolutionary dynamics of species traits remains a challenge in evolutionary ecology. Combining trait evolution models and phylogenies, we analysed the evolution of characters associated with seed dispersal (fruit size and colour) and herbivory (spines) in Neotropical palms to infer the role of these opposing animal-plant interactions in driving evolutionary patterns. We found that the evolution of fruit colour and fruit size was associated in Neotropical palms, supporting the adaptive interpretation of seed-dispersal syndromes and highlighting the role of frugivores in shaping plant evolution. Furthermore, we revealed a positive association between fruit size and the presence of spines on palm leaves, bracteas and stems. We hypothesize that interactions between palms and large-bodied frugivores/herbivores may explain the evolutionary relationship between fruit size and spines. Large-bodied frugivores, such as extinct megafauna, besides consuming the fruits and dispersing large seeds, may also have consumed the leaves or damaged the plants, thus simultaneously favouring the evolution of large fruits and defensive structures. Our findings show how current trait patterns can be understood as the result of the interplay between antagonistic and mutualistic interactions that have happened throughout the evolutionary history of a clade., (© 2020 European Society For Evolutionary Biology. Journal of Evolutionary Biology © 2020 European Society For Evolutionary Biology.)

Plant-animal interactions are fundamentally important in ecosystems, but have often been ignored by studies of climate-change impacts on biodiversity. Here, we present a trait-based framework for predicting the responses of interacting plants and animals to climate change. We distinguish three pathways along which climate change can impact interacting species in ecological communities: (i) spatial and temporal mismatches in the occurrence and abundance of species, (ii) the formation of novel interactions and secondary extinctions, and (iii) alterations of the dispersal ability of plants. These pathways are mediated by three kinds of functional traits: response traits, matching traits, and dispersal traits. We propose that incorporating these traits into predictive models will improve assessments of the responses of interacting species to climate change., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Downsizing of animal communities due to defaunation is prevalent in many ecosystems. Yet, we know little about its consequences for ecosystem functions such as seed dispersal. Here, we use eight seed-dispersal networks sampled across the Andes and simulate how downsizing of avian frugivores impacts structural network robustness and seed dispersal. We use a trait-based modeling framework to quantify the consequences of downsizing-relative to random extinctions-for the number of interactions and secondary plant extinctions (as measures of structural robustness) and for long-distance seed dispersal (as a measure of ecosystem function). We find that downsizing leads to stronger functional than structural losses. For instance, 10% size-structured loss of bird species results in almost 40% decline of long-distance seed dispersal, but in less than 10% of structural loss. Our simulations reveal that measures of the structural robustness of ecological networks underestimate the consequences of animal extinction and downsizing for ecosystem functioning.

A long-standing hypothesis in ecology and evolution is that trichromatic colour vision (the ability to distinguish red from green) in frugivorous primates has evolved as an adaptation to detect conspicuous (reddish) fruits. This could provide a competitive advantage over dichromatic frugivores which cannot distinguish reddish colours from a background of green foliage. Here, we test whether the origin, distribution and diversity of trichromatic primates is positively associated with the availability of conspicuous palm fruits, i.e. keystone fruit resources for tropical frugivores. We combine global data of colour vision, distribution and phylogenetic data for more than 400 primate species with fruit colour data for more than 1700 palm species, and reveal that species richness of trichromatic primates increases with the proportion of palm species that have conspicuous fruits, especially in subtropical African forests. By contrast, species richness of trichromats in Asia and the Americas is not positively associated with conspicuous palm fruit colours. Macroevolutionary analyses further indicate rapid and synchronous radiations of trichromats and conspicuous palms on the African mainland starting 10 Ma. These results suggest that the distribution and diversification of African trichromatic primates is strongly linked to the relative availability of conspicuous (versus non-conspicuous) palm fruits, and that interactions between primates and palms are related to the coevolutionary dynamics of primate colour vision systems and palm fruit colours.

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives., (© 2019 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Climate change forces many species to move their ranges to higher latitudes or elevations. Resulting immigration or emigration of species might lead to functional changes, e.g., in the trait distribution and composition of ecological assemblages. Here, we combined approaches from biogeography (species distribution models; SDMs) and community ecology (functional diversity) to investigate potential effects of climate-driven range changes on frugivorous bird assemblages along a 3000 m elevational gradient in the tropical Andes. We used SDMs to model current and projected future occurrence probabilities of frugivorous bird species from the lowlands to the tree line. SDM-derived probabilities of occurrence were combined with traits relevant for seed dispersal of fleshy-fruited plants to calculate functional dispersion (FDis; a measure of functional diversity) for current and future bird assemblages. Comparisons of FDis between current and projected future assemblages showed consistent results across four dispersal scenarios, five climate models and two representative concentration pathways. Projections indicated a decrease of FDis in the lowlands, an increase of FDis at lower mid-elevations and little changes at high elevations. This suggests that functional dispersion responds differently to global warming at different elevational levels, likely modifying avian seed dispersal functions and plant regeneration in forest ecosystems along tropical mountains.

Distributed environmental research infrastructures are important to support assessments of the effects of global change on landscapes, ecosystems and society. These infrastructures need to provide continuity to address long-term change, yet be flexible enough to respond to rapid societal and technological developments that modify research priorities. We used a horizon scanning exercise to identify and prioritize emerging research questions for the future development of ecosystem and socio-ecological research infrastructures in Europe. Twenty research questions covered topics related to (i) ecosystem structures and processes, (ii) the impacts of anthropogenic drivers on ecosystems, (iii) ecosystem services and socio-ecological systems and (iv), methods and research infrastructures. Several key priorities for the development of research infrastructures emerged. Addressing complex environmental issues requires the adoption of a whole-system approach, achieved through integration of biotic, abiotic and socio-economic measurements. Interoperability among different research infrastructures needs to be improved by developing standard measurements, harmonizing methods, and establishing capacities and tools for data integration, processing, storage and analysis. Future research infrastructures should support a range of methodological approaches including observation, experiments and modelling. They should also have flexibility to respond to new requirements, for example by adjusting the spatio-temporal design of measurements. When new methods are introduced, compatibility with important long-term data series must be ensured. Finally, indicators, tools, and transdisciplinary approaches to identify, quantify and value ecosystem services across spatial scales and domains need to be advanced., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Plant traits are critical to plant form and function -including growth, survival and reproduction- and therefore shape fundamental aspects of population and ecosystem dynamics as well as ecosystem services. Here, we present a global species-level compilation of key functional traits for palms (Arecaceae), a plant family with keystone importance in tropical and subtropical ecosystems. We derived measurements of essential functional traits for all (>2500) palm species from key sources such as monographs, books, other scientific publications, as well as herbarium collections. This includes traits related to growth form, stems, armature, leaves and fruits. Although many species are still lacking trait information, the standardized and global coverage of the data set will be important for supporting future studies in tropical ecology, rainforest evolution, paleoecology, biogeography, macroecology, macroevolution, global change biology and conservation. Potential uses are comparative eco-evolutionary studies, ecological research on community dynamics, plant-animal interactions and ecosystem functioning, studies on plant-based ecosystem services, as well as conservation science concerned with the loss and restoration of functional diversity in a changing world.

Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

The persistence of wildlife species in fire-prone ecosystems is under increasing pressure from global change, including alterations in fire regimes caused by climate change. However, unburned islands might act to mitigate negative effects of fire on wildlife populations by providing habitat in which species can survive and recolonize burned areas. Nevertheless, the characteristics of unburned islands and their role as potential refugia for the postfire population dynamics of wildlife species remain poorly understood.We used a newly developed unburned island database of the northwestern United States from 1984 to 2014 to assess the postfire response of the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ), a large gallinaceous bird inhabiting the sagebrush ecosystems of North America, in which wildfires are common. Specifically, we tested whether prefire and postfire male attendance trends at mating locations (leks) differed between burned and unburned areas, and to what extent postfire habitat composition at multiple scales could explain such trends.Using time-series of male counts at leks together with spatially explicit fire history information, we modeled whether male attendance was negatively affected by fire events. Results revealed that burned leks often exhibit sustained decline in male attendance, whereas leks within unburned islands or >1.5 km away from fire perimeters tend to show stable or increasing trends.Analyses of postfire habitat composition further revealed that sagebrush vegetation height within 0.8 km around leks, as well elevation within 0.8 km, 6.4 km, and 18 km around leks, had a positive effect on male attendance trends. Moreover, the proportion of the landscape with cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) cover >8% had negative effects on male attendance trends within 0.8 km, 6.4 km, and 18 km of leks, respectively. Synthesis and applications . Our results indicate that maintaining areas of unburned vegetation within and outside fire perimeters may be crucial for sustaining sage-grouse populations following wildfire. The role of unburned islands as fire refugia requires more attention in wildlife management and conservation planning because their creation, protection, and maintenance may positively affect wildlife population dynamics in fire-prone ecosystems., Competing Interests: None declared.

Background: A considerable portion of primary biodiversity data is digitally locked inside published literature which is often stored as pdf files. Large-scale approaches to biodiversity science could benefit from retrieving this information and making it digitally accessible and machine-readable. Nonetheless, the amount and diversity of digitally published literature pose many challenges for knowledge discovery and retrieval. Text mining has been extensively used for data discovery tasks in large quantities of documents. However, text mining approaches for knowledge discovery and retrieval have been limited in biodiversity science compared to other disciplines., New Information: Here, we present a novel, open source text mining tool, the Biodiversity Observations Miner (BOM). This web application, written in R, allows the semi-automated discovery of punctual biodiversity observations (e.g. biotic interactions, functional or behavioural traits and natural history descriptions) associated with the scientific names present inside a corpus of scientific literature. Furthermore, BOM enable users the rapid screening of large quantities of literature based on word co-occurrences that match custom biodiversity dictionaries. This tool aims to increase the digital mobilisation of primary biodiversity data and is freely accessible via GitHub or through a web server.

Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) allow observation and reporting of global biodiversity change, but a detailed framework for the empirical derivation of specific EBVs has yet to be developed. Here, we re-examine and refine the previous candidate set of species traits EBVs and show how traits related to phenology, morphology, reproduction, physiology and movement can contribute to EBV operationalization. The selected EBVs express intra-specific trait variation and allow monitoring of how organisms respond to global change. We evaluate the societal relevance of species traits EBVs for policy targets and demonstrate how open, interoperable and machine-readable trait data enable the building of EBV data products. We outline collection methods, meta(data) standardization, reproducible workflows, semantic tools and licence requirements for producing species traits EBVs. An operationalization is critical for assessing progress towards biodiversity conservation and sustainable development goals and has wide implications for data-intensive science in ecology, biogeography, conservation and Earth observation.

Past global change may have forced animal-dispersed plants with megafaunal fruits to adapt or go extinct, but these processes have remained unexplored at broad spatio-temporal scales. Here, we combine phylogenetic, distributional and fruit size data for more than 2500 palm (Arecaceae) species in a time-slice diversification analysis to quantify how extinction and adaptation have changed over deep time. Our results indicate that extinction rates of palms with megafaunal fruits have increased in the New World since the onset of the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago). In contrast, Old World palms show a Quaternary increase in transition rates towards evolving small fruits from megafaunal fruits. We suggest that Quaternary climate oscillations and concurrent habitat fragmentation and defaunation of megafaunal frugivores in the New World have reduced seed dispersal distances and geographical ranges of palms with megafaunal fruits, resulting in their extinction. The increasing adaptation to smaller fruits in the Old World could reflect selection for seed dispersal by ocean-crossing frugivores (e.g. medium-sized birds and bats) to colonize Indo-Pacific islands against a background of Quaternary sea-level fluctuations. Our macro-evolutionary results suggest that megafaunal fruits are increasingly being lost from tropical ecosystems, either due to extinctions or by adapting to smaller fruit sizes., (© 2018 The Authors.)

Much biodiversity data is collected worldwide, but it remains challenging to assemble the scattered knowledge for assessing biodiversity status and trends. The concept of Essential Biodiversity Variables (EBVs) was introduced to structure biodiversity monitoring globally, and to harmonize and standardize biodiversity data from disparate sources to capture a minimum set of critical variables required to study, report and manage biodiversity change. Here, we assess the challenges of a 'Big Data' approach to building global EBV data products across taxa and spatiotemporal scales, focusing on species distribution and abundance. The majority of currently available data on species distributions derives from incidentally reported observations or from surveys where presence-only or presence-absence data are sampled repeatedly with standardized protocols. Most abundance data come from opportunistic population counts or from population time series using standardized protocols (e.g. repeated surveys of the same population from single or multiple sites). Enormous complexity exists in integrating these heterogeneous, multi-source data sets across space, time, taxa and different sampling methods. Integration of such data into global EBV data products requires correcting biases introduced by imperfect detection and varying sampling effort, dealing with different spatial resolution and extents, harmonizing measurement units from different data sources or sampling methods, applying statistical tools and models for spatial inter- or extrapolation, and quantifying sources of uncertainty and errors in data and models. To support the development of EBVs by the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO BON), we identify 11 key workflow steps that will operationalize the process of building EBV data products within and across research infrastructures worldwide. These workflow steps take multiple sequential activities into account, including identification and aggregation of various raw data sources, data quality control, taxonomic name matching and statistical modelling of integrated data. We illustrate these steps with concrete examples from existing citizen science and professional monitoring projects, including eBird, the Tropical Ecology Assessment and Monitoring network, the Living Planet Index and the Baltic Sea zooplankton monitoring. The identified workflow steps are applicable to both terrestrial and aquatic systems and a broad range of spatial, temporal and taxonomic scales. They depend on clear, findable and accessible metadata, and we provide an overview of current data and metadata standards. Several challenges remain to be solved for building global EBV data products: (i) developing tools and models for combining heterogeneous, multi-source data sets and filling data gaps in geographic, temporal and taxonomic coverage, (ii) integrating emerging methods and technologies for data collection such as citizen science, sensor networks, DNA-based techniques and satellite remote sensing, (iii) solving major technical issues related to data product structure, data storage, execution of workflows and the production process/cycle as well as approaching technical interoperability among research infrastructures, (iv) allowing semantic interoperability by developing and adopting standards and tools for capturing consistent data and metadata, and (v) ensuring legal interoperability by endorsing open data or data that are free from restrictions on use, modification and sharing. Addressing these challenges is critical for biodiversity research and for assessing progress towards conservation policy targets and sustainable development goals., (© 2017 The Authors. Biological Reviews published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

Animal-mediated seed dispersal by frugivorous birds and mammals is central to the ecology and functioning of ecosystems, but whether and how frugivory-related traits have affected plant speciation remains little explored. Fruit size is directly linked to plant dispersal capacity and therefore influences gene flow and genetic divergence of plant populations. Using a global species-level phylogeny with comprehensive data on fruit sizes and plant species distributions, we test whether fruit size has affected speciation rates of palms (Arecaceae), a plant family characteristic of tropical rainforests. Globally, the results reveal that palms with small fruit sizes have increased speciation rates compared with those with large (megafaunal) fruits. Speciation of small-fruited palms is particularly high in the understory of tropical rainforests in the New World, and on islands in the Old World. This suggests that frugivory-related traits in combination with geography and the movement behaviour of frugivores can influence the speciation of fleshy-fruited plants.

Interactions between resource and consumer species result in complex ecological networks. The overall structure of these networks is often stable in space and time, but little is known about the temporal stability of the functional roles of consumer species in these networks. We used a trait-based approach to investigate whether consumers (frugivorous birds) show similar degrees of functional specialisation on resources (plants) in ecological networks across seasons. We additionally tested whether closely related bird species have similar degrees of functional specialisation and whether birds that are functionally specialised on specific resource types within a season are flexible in switching to other resource types in other seasons. We analysed four seasonal replicates of two species-rich plant-frugivore networks from the tropical Andes. To quantify fruit preferences of frugivorous birds, we projected their interactions with plants into a multidimensional plant trait space. To measure functional specialisation of birds, we calculated a species' functional niche breadth (the extent of seasonal plant trait space utilised by a particular bird) and functional originality (the extent to which a bird species' fruit preference functionally differs from those of other species in a seasonal network). We additionally calculated functional flexibility, i.e. the ability of bird species to change their fruit preference across seasons in response to variation in plant resources. Functional specialisation of bird species varied more among species than across seasons, and phylogenetically similar bird species showed similar degrees of functional niche breadth (phylogenetic signal λ = 0·81) and functional originality (λ = 0·89). Additionally, we found that birds with high functional flexibility across seasons had narrow functional niche breadth and high functional originality per season, suggesting that birds that are seasonally specialised on particular resources are most flexible in switching to other fruit resources across seasons. The high flexibility of functionally specialised bird species to switch seasonally to other resources challenges the view that consumer species rely on functionally similar resources throughout the year. This flexibility of consumer species may be an important, but widely neglected mechanism that could potentially stabilise consumer-resource networks in response to human disturbance and environmental change., (© 2017 The Authors. Journal of Animal Ecology © 2017 British Ecological Society.)

The well-being of the global human population rests on provisioning services delivered by 12% of the Earth's ∼400,000 plant species 1 . Plant utilization by humans is influenced by species traits 2-4 , but it is not well understood which traits underpin different human needs 5 . Here, we focus on palms (Arecaceae), one of the most economically important plant groups globally 6 , and demonstrate that provisioning services related to basic needs, such as food and medicine, show a strong link to fundamental functional and geographic traits. We integrate data from 2,201 interviews on plant utilization from three biomes in South America-spanning 68 communities, 43 ethnic groups and 2,221 plant uses-with a dataset of 4 traits (leaf length, stem volume, fruit volume, geographic range size) and a species-level phylogeny 7 . For all 208 palm species occurring in our study area, we test for relations between their traits and perceived value. We find that people preferentially use large, widespread species rather than small, narrow-ranged species, and that different traits are linked to different uses. Further, plant size and geographic range size are stronger predictors of ecosystem service realization for palm services related to basic human needs than less-basic needs (for example, ritual). These findings suggest that reliance on plant size and availability may have prevented our optimal realization of wild-plant services, since ecologically rare yet functionally important (for example, chemically) clades may have been overlooked. Beyond expanding our understanding of how local people use biodiversity in mega-diverse regions, our trait- and phylogeny-based approach helps to understand the processes that underpin ecosystem service realization, a necessary step to meet societal needs in a changing world with a growing human population 5,8 .

To what extent deep-time dispersal limitation shapes present-day biodiversity at broad spatial scales remains elusive. Here, we compiled a continental dataset on the distributions of African lizard species in the reptile subfamily Agaminae (a relatively young, Neogene radiation of agamid lizards which ancestors colonized Africa from the Arabian peninsula) and tested to what extent historical colonization and dispersal limitation (i.e. accessibility from areas of geographic origin) can explain present-day species richness relative to current climate, topography, and climate change since the late Miocene (~10 mya), the Pliocene (~3 mya), and the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 0.021 mya). Spatial and non-spatial multi-predictor regression models revealed that time-limited dispersal via arid corridors is a key predictor to explain macro-scale patterns of species richness. In addition, current precipitation seasonality, current temperature of the warmest month, paleo-temperature changes since the LGM and late Miocene, and topographic relief emerged as important drivers. These results suggest that deep-time dispersal constraints - in addition to climate and mountain building - strongly shape current species richness of Africa's arid-adapted taxa. Such historical dispersal limitation might indicate that natural movement rates of species are too slow to respond to rates of ongoing and projected future climate and land use change.

Changes in climate and land use can have important impacts on biodiversity. Species respond to such environmental modifications by adapting to new conditions or by shifting their geographic distributions towards more suitable areas. The latter might be constrained by species' functional traits that influence their ability to move, reproduce or establish. Here, we show that functional traits related to dispersal, reproduction, habitat use and diet have influenced how three pollinator groups (bees, butterflies and hoverflies) responded to changes in climate and land-use in the Netherlands since 1950. Across the three pollinator groups, we found pronounced areal range expansions (>53%) and modelled range shifts towards the north (all taxa: 17-22 km), west (bees: 14 km) and east (butterflies: 11 km). The importance of specific functional traits for explaining distributional changes varied among pollinator groups. Larval diet preferences (i.e. carnivorous vs. herbivorous/detritivorous and nitrogen values of host plants, respectively) were important for hoverflies and butterflies, adult body size for hoverflies, and flight period length for all groups. Moreover, interactions among multiple traits were important to explain species' geographic range shifts, suggesting that taxon-specific multi-trait analyses are needed to predict how global change will affect biodiversity and ecosystem services.

Diet is commonly assumed to affect the evolution of species, but few studies have directly tested its effect at macroevolutionary scales. Here we use Bayesian models of trait-dependent diversification and a comprehensive dietary database of all birds worldwide to assess speciation and extinction dynamics of avian dietary guilds (carnivores, frugivores, granivores, herbivores, insectivores, nectarivores, omnivores and piscivores). Our results suggest that omnivory is associated with higher extinction rates and lower speciation rates than other guilds, and that overall net diversification is negative. Trait-dependent models, dietary similarity and network analyses show that transitions into omnivory occur at higher rates than into any other guild. We suggest that omnivory acts as macroevolutionary sink, where its ephemeral nature is retrieved through transitions from other guilds rather than from omnivore speciation. We propose that these dynamics result from competition within and among dietary guilds, influenced by the deep-time availability and predictability of food resources.

Islands are ideal for investigating processes that shape species assemblages because they are isolated and have discrete boundaries. Quantifying phylogenetic assemblage structure allows inferences about these processes, in particular dispersal, environmental filtering and in-situ speciation. Here, we link phylogenetic assemblage structure to island characteristics across 393 islands worldwide and 37,041 vascular plant species (representing angiosperms overall, palms and ferns). Physical and bioclimatic factors, especially those impeding colonization and promoting speciation, explained more variation in phylogenetic structure of angiosperms overall (49%) and palms (52%) than of ferns (18%). The relationships showed different or contrasting trends among these major plant groups, consistent with their dispersal- and speciation-related traits and climatic adaptations. Phylogenetic diversity was negatively related to isolation for palms, but unexpectedly it was positively related to isolation for angiosperms overall. This indicates strong dispersal filtering for the predominantly large-seeded, animal-dispersed palm family whereas colonization from biogeographically distinct source pools on remote islands likely drives the phylogenetic structure of angiosperm floras. We show that signatures of dispersal limitation, environmental filtering and in-situ speciation differ markedly among taxonomic groups on islands, which sheds light on the origin of insular plant diversity.

Tropical rain forests (TRF) are the most diverse terrestrial biome on Earth, but the diversification dynamics of their constituent growth forms remain largely unexplored. Climbing plants contribute significantly to species diversity and ecosystem processes in TRF. We investigate the broad-scale patterns and drivers of species richness as well as the diversification history of climbing and non-climbing palms (Arecaceae). We quantify to what extent macroecological diversity patterns are related to contemporary climate, forest canopy height, and paleoclimatic changes. We test whether diversification rates are higher for climbing than non-climbing palms and estimate the origin of the climbing habit. Climbers account for 22% of global palm species diversity, mostly concentrated in Southeast Asia. Global variation in climbing palm species richness can be partly explained by past and present-day climate and rain forest canopy height, but regional differences in residual species richness after accounting for current and past differences in environment suggest a strong role of historical contingencies in climbing palm diversification. Climbing palms show a higher net diversification rate than non-climbers. Diversification analyses of palms detected a diversification rate increase along the branches leading to the most species-rich clade of climbers. Ancestral character reconstructions revealed that the climbing habit originated between early Eocene and Miocene. These results imply that changes from non-climbing to climbing habits may have played an important role in palm diversification, resulting in the origin of one fifth of all palm species. We suggest that, in addition to current climate and paleoclimatic changes after the late Neogene, present-day diversity of climbing palms can be explained by morpho-anatomical innovations, the biogeographic history of Southeast Asia, and/or ecological opportunities due to the diversification of high-stature dipterocarps in Asian TRFs.

Ecological trait data are essential for understanding the broad-scale distribution of biodiversity and its response to global change. For animals, diet represents a fundamental aspect of species' evolutionary adaptations, ecological and functional roles, and trophic interactions. However, the importance of diet for macroevolutionary and macroecological dynamics remains little explored, partly because of the lack of comprehensive trait datasets. We compiled and evaluated a comprehensive global dataset of diet preferences of mammals ("MammalDIET"). Diet information was digitized from two global and cladewide data sources and errors of data entry by multiple data recorders were assessed. We then developed a hierarchical extrapolation procedure to fill-in diet information for species with missing information. Missing data were extrapolated with information from other taxonomic levels (genus, other species within the same genus, or family) and this extrapolation was subsequently validated both internally (with a jack-knife approach applied to the compiled species-level diet data) and externally (using independent species-level diet information from a comprehensive continentwide data source). Finally, we grouped mammal species into trophic levels and dietary guilds, and their species richness as well as their proportion of total richness were mapped at a global scale for those diet categories with good validation results. The success rate of correctly digitizing data was 94%, indicating that the consistency in data entry among multiple recorders was high. Data sources provided species-level diet information for a total of 2033 species (38% of all 5364 terrestrial mammal species, based on the IUCN taxonomy). For the remaining 3331 species, diet information was mostly extrapolated from genus-level diet information (48% of all terrestrial mammal species), and only rarely from other species within the same genus (6%) or from family level (8%). Internal and external validation showed that: (1) extrapolations were most reliable for primary food items; (2) several diet categories ("Animal", "Mammal", "Invertebrate", "Plant", "Seed", "Fruit", and "Leaf") had high proportions of correctly predicted diet ranks; and (3) the potential of correctly extrapolating specific diet categories varied both within and among clades. Global maps of species richness and proportion showed congruence among trophic levels, but also substantial discrepancies between dietary guilds. MammalDIET provides a comprehensive, unique and freely available dataset on diet preferences for all terrestrial mammals worldwide. It enables broad-scale analyses for specific trophic levels and dietary guilds, and a first assessment of trait conservatism in mammalian diet preferences at a global scale. The digitalization, extrapolation and validation procedures could be transferable to other trait data and taxa.

Island biogeographic studies traditionally treat single islands as units of analysis. This ignores the fact that most islands are spatially nested within archipelagos. Here, we took a fundamentally different approach and focused on entire archipelagos using species richness of vascular plants on 23 archipelagos worldwide and their 174 constituent islands. We assessed differential effects of biogeographic factors (area, isolation, age, elevation), current and past climate (temperature, precipitation, seasonality, climate change velocity) and intra-archipelagic spatial structure (archipelago area, number of islands, area range, connectivity, environmental volume, inter-island distance) on plant diversity. Species diversity of each archipelago (γ) was additively partitioned into α, β, nestedness and replacement β-components to investigate the relative importance of environmental and spatial drivers. Multiple regressions revealed strong effects of biogeography and climate on α and γ, whereas spatial factors, particularly number of islands, inter-island distance and area range, were key to explain β. Structural equation models additionally suggested that γ is predominantly determined by indirect abiotic effects via its components, particularly β. This highlights that β and the spatial arrangement of islands are essential to understand insular ecology and evolution. Our methodological framework can be applied more widely to other taxa and archipelago-like systems, allowing new insights into biodiversity origin and maintenance.

Past climatic changes have caused extinction, speciation, and range dynamics, but assessing the influence of past multimillion-year climatic imprints on present-day biodiversity patterns remains challenging. We analyzed a new continental-scale data set to examine the importance of paleoclimatic effects on current gradients in African palm richness patterns. Using climate reconstructions from the late Miocene (-10 mya), the Pliocene (-3 mya), and the Last Glacial Maximum (0.021 mya), we found that African palm diversity patterns exhibit pronounced historical legacies related to long-term climate change. Notably, pre-Pleistocene paleoprecipitation variables differentially affected current diversity patterns of palms grouped by contrasting habitat requirements. Accounting for present-day environment, rain forest palms exhibit greater species richness in localities where Pliocene precipitation was relatively high, whereas open-habitat palms show higher species richness in areas of relatively low precipitation during the Miocene Epoch. Our results demonstrate that diversity-climate relationships among African palm species include multimillion-year lagged dynamics, i.e., with historical legacies persisting across much longer time periods than commonly recognized.

Predator-prey interactions play an important role for species composition and community dynamics at local scales, but their importance in shaping large-scale gradients of species richness remains unexplored. Here, we use global range maps, structural equation models (SEM), and comprehensive databases of dietary preferences and body masses of all terrestrial, non-volant mammals worldwide, to test whether (1) prey bottom-up or predator top-down relationships are important drivers of broad-scale species richness gradients once the environment and human influence have been accounted for, (2) predator-prey richness associations vary among biogeographic regions, and (3) body size influences large-scale covariation between predators and prey. SEMs including only productivity, climate, and human factors explained a high proportion of variance in prey richness (R2=0.56) but considerably less in predator richness (R2=0.13). Adding predator-to-prey or prey-to-predator paths strongly increased the explained variance in both cases (prey R2=0.79, predator R2=0.57), suggesting that predator-prey interactions play an important role in driving global diversity gradients. Prey bottom-up effects prevailed over productivity, climate, and human influence to explain predator richness, whereas productivity and climate were more important than predator top-down effects for explaining prey richness, although predator top-down effects were still significant. Global predator-prey associations were not reproduced in all regions, indicating that distinct paleoclimate and evolutionary histories (Africa and Australia) may alter species interactions across trophic levels. Stronger cross-trophic-level associations were recorded within categories of similar body size (e.g., large prey to large predators) than between them (e.g., large prey to small predators), suggesting that mass-related energetic and physiological constraints influence broad-scale richness links, especially for large-bodied mammals. Overall, our results support the idea that trophic interactions can be important drivers of large-scale species richness gradients in combination with environmental effects.

Predicting which species will occur together in the future, and where, remains one of the greatest challenges in ecology, and requires a sound understanding of how the abiotic and biotic environments interact with dispersal processes and history across scales. Biotic interactions and their dynamics influence species' relationships to climate, and this also has important implications for predicting future distributions of species. It is already well accepted that biotic interactions shape species' spatial distributions at local spatial extents, but the role of these interactions beyond local extents (e.g. 10 km(2) to global extents) are usually dismissed as unimportant. In this review we consolidate evidence for how biotic interactions shape species distributions beyond local extents and review methods for integrating biotic interactions into species distribution modelling tools. Drawing upon evidence from contemporary and palaeoecological studies of individual species ranges, functional groups, and species richness patterns, we show that biotic interactions have clearly left their mark on species distributions and realised assemblages of species across all spatial extents. We demonstrate this with examples from within and across trophic groups. A range of species distribution modelling tools is available to quantify species environmental relationships and predict species occurrence, such as: (i) integrating pairwise dependencies, (ii) using integrative predictors, and (iii) hybridising species distribution models (SDMs) with dynamic models. These methods have typically only been applied to interacting pairs of species at a single time, require a priori ecological knowledge about which species interact, and due to data paucity must assume that biotic interactions are constant in space and time. To better inform the future development of these models across spatial scales, we call for accelerated collection of spatially and temporally explicit species data. Ideally, these data should be sampled to reflect variation in the underlying environment across large spatial extents, and at fine spatial resolution. Simplified ecosystems where there are relatively few interacting species and sometimes a wealth of existing ecosystem monitoring data (e.g. arctic, alpine or island habitats) offer settings where the development of modelling tools that account for biotic interactions may be less difficult than elsewhere., (© 2012 The Authors. Biological Reviews © 2012 Cambridge Philosophical Society.)

Sea-level rise (SLR) due to global warming will result in the loss of many coastal areas. The direct or primary effects due to inundation and erosion from SLR are currently being assessed; however, the indirect or secondary ecological effects, such as changes caused by the displacement of human populations, have not been previously evaluated. We examined the potential ecological consequences of future SLR on >1,200 islands in the Southeast Asian and the Pacific region. Using three SLR scenarios (1, 3, and 6 m elevation, where 1 m approximates most predictions by the end of this century), we assessed the consequences of primary and secondary SLR effects from human displacement on habitat availability and distributions of selected mammal species. We estimate that between 3-32% of the coastal zone of these islands could be lost from primary effects, and consequently 8-52 million people would become SLR refugees. Assuming that inundated urban and intensive agricultural areas will be relocated with an equal area of habitat loss in the hinterland, we project that secondary SLR effects can lead to an equal or even higher percent range loss than primary effects for at least 10-18% of the sample mammals in a moderate range loss scenario and for 22-46% in a maximum range loss scenario. In addition, we found some species to be more vulnerable to secondary than primary effects. Finally, we found high spatial variation in vulnerability: species on islands in Oceania are more vulnerable to primary SLR effects, whereas species on islands in Indo-Malaysia, with potentially 7-48 million SLR refugees, are more vulnerable to secondary effects. Our findings show that primary and secondary SLR effects can have enormous consequences for human inhabitants and island biodiversity, and that both need to be incorporated into ecological risk assessment, conservation, and regional planning., (© 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.)

Despite long-standing interest in the origin and maintenance of species diversity, little is known about historical drivers of species assemblage structure at large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we use global species distribution data, a dated genus-level phylogeny, and paleo-reconstructions of biomes and climate to examine Cenozoic imprints on the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages of palms (Arecaceae), a species-rich plant family characteristic of tropical ecosystems. We find a strong imprint on phylogenetic clustering due to geographic isolation and in situ diversification, especially in the Neotropics and on islands with spectacular palm radiations (e.g., Madagascar, Hawaii, and Cuba). Phylogenetic overdispersion on mainlands and islands corresponds to biotic interchange areas. Differences in the degree of phylogenetic clustering among biogeographic realms are related to differential losses of tropical rainforests during the Cenozoic, but not to the cumulative area of tropical rainforest over geological time. A largely random phylogenetic assemblage structure in Africa coincides with severe losses of rainforest area, especially after the Miocene. More recent events also appear to be influential: phylogenetic clustering increases with increasing intensity of Quaternary glacial-interglacial climatic oscillations in South America and, to a lesser extent, Africa, indicating that specific clades perform better in climatically unstable regions. Our results suggest that continental isolation (in combination with limited long-distance dispersal) and changing climate and habitat loss throughout the Cenozoic have had strong impacts on the phylogenetic structure of regional species assemblages in the tropics.