Search

Background Projected trajectories of climate and land use change over the remainder of the twenty-first century may result in conditions and situations that require flexible approaches to conservation planning and practices. For example, prescribed burning is a widely used management tool for promoting longer-term resilience and sustainability in longleaf pine ecosystems of the southeastern United States, but regional stressors such as climatic warming, changing fire conditions, and an expanding wildland-urban interface may challenge its application. To facilitate the development of fire management strategies that account for such changes, we surveyed nearly 300 fire managers to elicit information on the criteria used for prioritizing burn sites, current burning practices and constraints, and expectations for changes in burning opportunities, including those pertaining to climate change and urban growth. Results Respondents noted that their most common criteria for selecting longleaf pine stands for burning were fire history, ecosystem health, and fuel reduction, with the presence of threatened and endangered species also given priority by public land managers. Many respondents (38%) cited recent burn frequencies that fall short of historic burn intervals. Barriers to burning included legal, institutional, and managerial constraints, such as proximity to human developments, public concerns, and risk aversion, as well as environmental and resource constraints, including weather, air quality restrictions, and lack of personnel, equipment, or funding. Roughly half of all respondents expect that opportunities to burn will be reduced over the next 30 years, particularly during the growing season. Fire manager perceptions of factors that will limit prescribed burning in the future include a similar suite of constraints, many of which will be affected by projected regional changes in land use and climate. Conclusions On an organizational level, burn window availability and resource limitations constrain prescribed burning practices. More broadly, policy and legal frameworks coupled with trends in urbanization and climate change are expected to interact with operational constraints to challenge managers’ abilities to implement landscape-scale burning strategies and achieve restoration goals. Additional research and engagement with fire managers are needed to investigate opportunities for introducing policy flexibility, leveraging shared management interests, and developing creative solutions to expand burning opportunities.

In the US alone, there are over 200 tools that support climate adaptation planning, along with a large number of case studies documenting their use. Case studies frequently document positive results. Systematic assessment of processes can provide important benefits, including justification for action and expenditures, promotion of learning and adaptive management, accountability, and ensuring “fit” with other goals. There are very few such assessments in the context of climate adaptation planning, despite of the emphasis on the development and use of planning tools by federal and state agencies, university researchers, and non-profit organizations. We undertook an effort to assess the outcomes resulting from fourteen applications of the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process, which we helped develop and implement. VCAPS is designed to facilitate information exchange, co-production of knowledge, and stakeholder collaboration while helping communities appraise climate change-related risks and devise strategies to manage them. Using qualitative interviews we explored the perceived value and the measurable performance outcomes of VCAPS at both individual and community scales occurring 3–10 years after the processes were conducted, allowing participants to take a broader view of “success” and reflect on how different forms of success emerged over time. Although the assessment of each case is based on a small number of interviews, we learned that VCAPS informed plans and decisions of municipalities, informed actions and decisions of other public and private actors, generated broader support for subsequent actions, helped efforts to secure/seek funding for climate adaptation actions, developed material resources to support planning, and promoted learning among participants. This assessment also reinforces prior work showing that deliberative planning tools/processes are conducive to developing adaptive capacities; processes should be closely coordinated with regular governance activities to impact policy and action; adequate time for deliberation needs to be budgeted; participants need support to “think outside the box” and consider adaptation strategies that are both incremental and transformational as well as highlight potential undesirable consequences of adaptation; and processes, like VCAPS, produce actionable outcomes when participants agree on the immediacy of the issue. We conclude with observations about the need for evaluation of participatory processes and the challenges of defining success of tools to support municipal climate change adaptation planning.

Recent studies have characterized individually experienced temperatures or individually experienced heat indices, including new exposure metrics that capture dimensions of exposure intensity, frequency, and duration. Yet, few studies have examined the personal thermal exposure in underrepresented groups, like outdoor workers, and even fewer have assessed corresponding changes in physiologic heat strain. The objective of this paper is to examine a cohort of occupationally exposed grounds and public safety workers (n = 25) to characterize their heat exposure and resulting heat strain. In addition, a secondary aim of this work is to compare individually heat index exposure (IHIE) across exposure metrics, fixed-site in situ weather stations, and raster-derived urban heat island (UHI) measurements in Charleston, SC, a humid coastal climate in the Southeastern USA. A Bland-Altman (BA) analysis was used to assess the level of agreement between the personal IHIE measurements and weather-station heat index (HI) and Urban Heat Island (UHI) measurements. Linear mixed-effect models were used to determine the association between individual risk factors and in situ weather station measurements significantly associated with IHIE measurements. Multivariable stepwise Cox proportional hazard modeling was used to identify the individual and workplace factors associated with time to heat strain in workers. We also examined the non-linear association between heat strain and exposure metrics using generalized additive models. We found significant heterogeneity in IHIE measurements across participants. We observed that time to heat strain was positively associated with a higher IHIE, older age, being male, and among Caucasian workers. Important nonlinear associations between heat strain occurrence and the intensity, frequency, and duration of personal heat metrics were observed. Lastly, our analysis found that IHIE measures were significantly similar for weather station HI, although differences were more pronounced for temperature and relative humidity measurements. Conversely, our IHIE findings were much lower than raster-derived UHI measurements. Real-time monitoring can offer important insights about unfolding temperature-health trends and emerging behaviors during thermal extreme events, which have significant potential to provide situational awareness.

Climate risks are motivating adaptation with local municipal actors becoming key participants in a complex web of climate risk communication. Some cities have created civil service positions focused on climate resilience. We conducted interviews with six such individuals in four U.S. Atlantic coast cities to investigate how they think about and negotiate communication challenges associated with implementation of climate resilience strategies. We grounded our study in the Social Amplification of Risk Framework (SARF), which despite its longevity and wide usage has rarely been used to understand the role of government actors. We found substantial complexity in how these government representatives develop both amplifying and attenuating communication strategies as they often simultaneously reach multiple audiences holding different perspectives. They are familiar with and employ risk communication practices. However, they report needing to modify their efforts as climate adaptation issues and goals evolve over time, and experiment in situations, such as discussions of retreat, where established communication practices provide insufficient guidance. In order to develop a deeper understanding of the governmental risk communication actors, we suggest four potential avenues for taking advantage of the strengths of SARF as a framework for connecting and integrating with other models and theories. We also propose several directions for research based on the challenges these practitioners are finding in their work to facilitate adaptation to climate risks. The activity of government actors is rich in its applied risk communication practice and its challenges offer new questions to expand our thinking about the SARF and risk communication more broadly.

With the increase in severity and frequency of natural hazards due to climate change, developing a holistic understanding of community resilience factors is critically important to disaster response and community support. Our investigation of small business survey responses about COVID-19 impacts finds that they are conduits of national support to their local communities. Small businesses that have demonstrated high levels of pre-disaster local involvement are more likely to take an active role in community resilience during a disaster, regardless of their own financial security. In addition, businesses with natural hazard experience before or during COVID-19 provided help to more community groups than hazard inexperienced businesses. While community resilience models often characterize small businesses as passive actors using variables such as employment or financial security, this research suggests that small businesses take an active role in community resilience by providing critical local support. The pandemic presented an opportunity to consider small business’ role in community resilience nationally, which was utilized here to identify the multi-dimensional factors that predict small business operators’ community disaster support. This study improves upon previous research by studying the small business-community resilience interface at both regional (n = 184) and national (n = 6,121) scales. We predict small business’ active involvement in community resilience using random forest machine learning, and find that adding social capital predictors greatly increases model performance (F1 score of 0.88, Matthews Correlation Coefficient of 0.67).

Sea level rise and sinking land surface means that the coastal areas in the South Atlantic are very likely to experience a relative sea level rise of one to four feet in the coming century. Many communities are already experiencing impacts of recurrent, sometimes called nuisance flooding, associated with “king tides” and meteorological events. For the state and county and local governments, sea level rise and increased flooding pose a significant, costly, and persistent threat to roads and highways. These natural disasters and chronic flood damages will inevitably encourage decision-makers to reconsider the status quo of road maintenance and repair. Under projected sea level rise, repetitive or severe damages will lead to tough decisions about whether to abandon existing roads, decrease routine maintenance, or transfer control of the roads to different government authorities. To begin to understand the potential scope of the problem, this white paper presents an analysis of roadways in coastal cities and counties in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia vulnerable to sea level rise under one-, two-, and three-foot scenarios, using sea level rise data from NOAA’s Office for Coastal Management Sea Level Rise Viewer Data Download.

In South Carolina, sea level rise and sinking land surface means that the coastal areas of the state will experience a relative sea level rise ranging between approximately 0.5 to 1.5 feet in 2030, 0.75 to 3.2 feet in 2050, and 1.75 and 10.8 feet by 2100. These ranges are based on scenarios that encompass uncertainties about physical processes and about future levels of greenhouse gas emissions. They cover low rates of sea level rise and low greenhouse gas emissions to high rates of sea level rise and high greenhouse gas emissions to convey the future risks for the purpose of long-term decision making. Many communities are already experiencing impacts of recurrent flooding, sometimes called nuisance flooding, associated with “king tides” and meteorological events. For the state and county and local governments, sea level rise and increased flooding pose a significant, costly, and persistent threat to roads and highways. These natural disasters and chronic flood damages will inevitably encourage South Carolinians to reconsider the status quo of road maintenance and repair. Under projected sea level rise, repetitive or severe damages will lead to tough decisions about whether to decrease routine maintenance, transfer control of the roads to different government authorities, or abandon existing roads. Although the South Carolina Department of Transportation (SCDOT) owns more than 50% of the roads and highways across the state, adaptation efforts related to road maintenance and abandonment can be expected to occur at both the state and local levels. The state, towns, cities, and counties have legal responsibilities to maintain roads, and they all certainly have an interest in ensuring that roads are safe and maintained. This white paper discusses how South Carolina law may impact local governments that are facing the effects of coastal flooding on their public roadways. The paper first outlines the statutory basis for road ownership and the duties that flow from such ownership. It then reviews potential causes of actions resulting from the breach of duties of maintenance and good repair. Finally, it addresses the procedural requirements for formal road abandonment and takings liability from loss of road access.

Vibrio species are marine bacteria that occur in estuaries worldwide; many are virulent human pathogens with high levels of antibiotic resistance. The average annual incidence of all Vibrio infections has increased by 41% between 1996 and 2005. V. vulnificus (Vv), a species associated with shellfish and occurring in the US Southeast, has ranges of temperature (16-33 °C) and salinity (5-20 ppt) dependencies for optimal growth. Increased water temperatures caused by atmospheric warming and increased salinity gradients caused by sea level rise raise concerns for the effect of climate change on the geographic range of Vv and the potential for increased exposure risk. This research combined monthly field sampling, laboratory analysis, and modeling to identify the current occurrence of Vv in the Winyah Bay estuary (South Carolina, USA) and assess the possible effects of climate change on future geographic range and exposure risk in the estuary. Vv concentrations ranged from 0 to 58 colony forming units (CFU)/mL, salinities ranged from 0 to 28 ppt, and temperature from 18 to 31 °C. A significant empirical relationship was found between Vv concentration and salinity and temperature that fit well with published optimal ranges for growth for these environmental parameters. These results, when coupled with an existing model of future specific conductance, indicated that sea level rise has a greater impact on exposure risk than temperature increases in the estuary. Risk increased by as much as four times compared to current conditions with the largest temporally widespread increase at the most upriver site where currently there is minimal risk.

In recent years increasing attention has been focused on understanding the different resources that can support decision makers at all levels in responding to climate variability and change. This article focuses on the role that access to information and other potential constraints may play in the context of water decision making across three U.S. regions (the Intermountain West, the Great Lakes, and the Carolinas). The authors report on the degree to which climate-related needs or constraints pertinent to water resources are regionally specific. They also find that stakeholder-identified constraints or needs extended beyond the need for data/information to enabling factors such as governance arrangements and how to improve collaboration and communication. As climate information networks expand and emphasis is placed on encouraging adaptation more broadly, these constraints have implications not only for how information dissemination efforts are organized but for how those efforts need to be informed by the larger regional context in a resource-limited and fragmented landscape.

Climate change adaptation (CCA) planning is an iterative process involving numerous actors and institutions at multiple levels of governance. This study investigates how cross-level differences may be a potential barrier or enabler of adaptation activities. It focuses on five potentially divisive issues: the level support for adaptation planning, adaptation goals, preferences among adaptation strategies, the desired role for the state vis a vis local leadership/control in supporting adaptation, and elements to include state level adaptation plans. The analysis is based on 138 questionnaires from coastal planners (local, state, and NGO) in Alaska, Florida, and Maryland. Findings reveal topics of agreement and disagreement in CCA planning across levels of management and study areas. State and NGO planners are significantly more likely than local planners to favor near-term planning activities and allocation of resources. This mismatch in timing is a potential barrier for adaptation. There were also significant differences in priorities motivating the development of plans among state, local, and NGO planners, though some differences may provide opportunities for the negotiation of planning priorities that have positive synergies. Although most planners indicated the state should play some role in local-level CCA planning, local planners desired a significantly lower level of involvement – a key threshold difference that represents the common and long-standing tension between state-level regulation and the desire for local control. The high proportion of all planners who have started to consider the development of CCA strategies and the desire for state-level adaptation plans to include support for risk and vulnerability assessments highlight potential synergies and opportunities to increase adaptive capacity and implement adaptation strategies. Few differences were detected among preferences for adaptation options. Analysis across multiple study areas provides additional insight into the stability and variation of cross-level differences.

Coastal planners' expectations of climate change play an important role in their assessment of potential risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation strategies. This paper assesses coastal planners' expectations of climate change and compares their estimates to widely referenced climate science projections. It focuses on assessing expectations of the magnitude and uncertainty of global temperature and sea-level change by 2030 and the likelihood of four climate change impacts by the mid-to-late twenty-first century. A web-based questionnaire (n = 137) was used to elicit coastal planner expectations of climate change in three coastal states (Alaska, Florida, and Maryland) across three levels of management (local, state, and non-government organizations). Findings indicate that over half of the planners were unsure of the magnitude of global temperature and sea-level rise (SLR). Among those who responded, planner estimates of the magnitude and uncertainty of global temperature and SLR are higher than clim...

This study examines support for climate adaptation planning and the role of perceived risk, uncertainty, and trust on adaptation of U.S. coastal communities. This assessment is based on the analysis of web-based questionnaires ( n = 137) among state, local, and non-government organization (NGO) planners in Alaska, Florida, and Maryland. Ordinal regression and correlation analysis were used to assess which factors are related to support for adaptation during two planning stages. Findings from this study suggest the influence of perceived risk, uncertainty, and trust on support for climate change adaptation (CCA) varies across two stages of adaptation planning (support for the development of plans and willingness to allocate human and financial resources to implement plans). The disaggregation of planning entities into different study areas and levels of management revealed significant differences in the relationship between perceived risk, uncertainty, and trust and support for CCA planning. These findings have implications for the design of communication and engagement strategies.

In the midst of rapidly proliferating engagement efforts around climate adaptation, attention to the design and evaluation of decision support processes and products is warranted. We report on the development and evaluation of a process framework called the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process. VCAPS is a systematic approach to integrate local knowledge with scientific understanding by providing opportunities for facilitated, deliberative learning-based activities with local decision makers about climate change vulnerability and adaptation. We introduce the conceptual basis of the process in analytic-deliberation, hazard management, and vulnerability. Our evaluations from eight coastal communities where the approach was applied point to four assets of VCAPS: it promotes synthesis of local and scientific knowledge; it stimulates systems thinking and learning; it facilitates governance by producing action plans with transparent justifications; and it accommodates pa...

This paper analyzes the information dissemination pathways that support climate-sensitive decisions in North and South Carolina. The study draws from over 100 online questionnaires and follow-up interviews with leaders in the forestry, natural resources management, planning and preparedness, tourism and recreation, and water supply management sectors. Participants represented subregions within each state, different types of organizations, and organizations working at different geographic scales. The cross-sector comparison demonstrates diverse information uses across multiple time horizons and a wide range of sector-specific needs and factors that influence how and where decision makers obtain climate information. It builds upon previous research regarding climate decision making by providing a comprehensive view of the patterns of information exchange within a given region. Although all sectors draw from a common pool of federal agencies for historical and current climate data, participants consider sector-specific and local sources to be their key climate information providers. Information obtained through these sources is more likely to be trusted, accessible, and relevant for decision making. Furthermore, information sharing is largely facilitated via subregional networks, and accessing relationships with colleagues and local agency personnel is a critical component of this process. This study provides a more nuanced understanding of how climate information use varies across sectors and time frames and the decentralized nature of existing networks. These findings have important implications for future efforts to provide climate decision support to state- and local-level decision makers and highlight the need for networks and processes that meet diverse regional and sector concerns and contexts.

Risk-based management approaches to climate adaptation depend on the assessment of potential threats, and their causes, vulnerabilities, and impacts. The refinement of these approaches relies heavily on detailed local knowledge of places and priorities, such as infrastructure, governance structures, and socio-economic conditions, as well as scientific understanding of climate projections and trends. Developing processes that integrate local and scientific knowledge will enhance the value of risk-based management approaches, facilitate group learning and planning processes, and support the capacity of communities to prepare for change. This study uses the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process, a form of analytic-deliberative dialogue, and the conceptual frameworks of hazard management and climate vulnerability, to integrate scientific and local knowledge. We worked with local government staff in an urbanized barrier island community (Sullivan’s Island, South Carolina) to consider climate risks, impacts, and adaptation challenges associated with sea level rise and wastewater and stormwater management. The findings discuss how the process increases understanding of town officials’ views of risks and climate change impacts to barrier islands, the management actions being considered to address of the multiple impacts of concern, and the local tradeoffs and challenges in adaptation planning. We also comment on group learning and specific adaptation tasks, strategies, and needs identified. 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/3.0/).

As attention to adaptation to climate change increases, there is a growing call for adaptation approaches that focus on risk management. There is also greater recognition that the rate and magnitude of climate variability and change may exceed the limits to adaptation of socio-ecological systems. We offer an actor-centered, risk-based definition for adaptation limits in social systems. Specifically, we frame adaptation limits as the point at which an actor's objectives cannot be secured from intolerable risks through adaptive actions. These limits are significant because exceeding a limit will either result in intolerable losses on the affected actor or system, or precipitate a discontinuous (or transformational) change of behavior by actors. Such discontinuities in behavior have implications for the distribution of risks, with potentially significant governance consequences. We further argue that some adaptation limits are dynamic through time. We conclude with recommendations for further research into adaptation limits and challenges to risk governance.

North and South Carolina have experienced considerable land-use change, urban sprawl and environmental management challenges within the past 30 years that have amplified and interacted with growing impacts from climate variability and change. However, with strong conservative majorities in the legislatures of both states, political tension around the issue of climate change has intensified, increasing the need for sensitive and deliberate climate change response strategies that mainstream action into salient areas of public concern. With data from online questionnaires and interviews with over 100 leaders within the Carolinas, this research explores a number of context-specific socio-ecological factors that influence climate change response activities and the mainstreaming process. Additionally, this study highlights how a key component of mainstreaming climate response action in the Carolinas involves the careful use of public communication frames. As such, mainstreamed climate change response wi...

To examine the factors that support adaptation within a regional and sectoral context, this article explores five climate-sensitive sectors in North and South Carolina (Forestry, Government Administration, Tourism, Water Management, and Wildlife Management) and the role of partnerships, collaborations, and networks in facilitating climate adaptation and related activities. Drawing from 117 online questionnaires and interviews with sector leaders across the Carolinas, the article highlights several key functions of networks in regard to supporting adaptation—intra-sector information sharing; monitoring, data collection, and research; and education and outreach. Furthermore, the analysis examines how climate networks in the region have facilitated the development of bonding, bridging, and linking social capital while also noting factors that have constrained the growth and success of both intra- and cross-sector collaboration. Although no formal, or discrete, state or regional cross-sector climate change network exists in the Carolinas, climate adaptations and capacity-building efforts have been supported by ad hoc and decentralized networks, emerging collegial partnerships within and across sectors, and collaborative efforts to pool expertise and resources. The role of different forms of social capital within these networks is discussed in the context of a contentious political environment where support for activities designed to address climate change is limited. These findings enhance our understanding of the social factors and relational processes that shape and influence capacity to adapt to climate change.

Climate adaptation has emerged as a mainstream risk management strategy for assisting in maintaining socio-ecological systems within the boundaries of a safe operating space. Yet, there are limits to the ability of systems to adapt. Here, we introduce the concept of an "adaptation frontier", which is defined as a socio-ecological system's transitional adaptive operating space between safe and unsafe domains. A number of driving forces are responsible for determining the sustainability of systems on the frontier. These include path dependence, adaptation/development deficits, values conflicts and discounting of future loss and damage. The cumulative implications of these driving forces are highly uncertain. Nevertheless, the fact that a broad range of systems already persist at the edge of their frontiers suggests a high likelihood that some limits will eventually be exceeded. The resulting system transformation is likely to manifest as anticipatory modification of management objectives or loss and damage. These outcomes vary significantly with respect to their ethical implications. Successful navigation of the adaptation frontier will necessitate new paradigms of risk governance to elicit knowledge that encourages reflexive reevaluation of societal values that enable or constrain sustainability. © 2013 by the authors.

Participatory modeling has tremendous potential to promote individual and group learning in environmental decision-making processes. We have implemented a participatory modeling process, the Vulnerability, Consequences, and Adaptation Planning Scenarios (VCAPS) process, in 14 communities to support municipal planning in the face of climate change. We emphasize learning through the dynamic process of developing the capacity to think critically, creatively, and collaboratively in support of individual and group decision-making and planning to remedy a problem of common concern. Participant feedback emphasizing the importance of learning via development of capacities that support activities of thinking and planning, rather than learning via the transfer of knowledge, prompted us to consider more deeply how we design participatory modeling processes and evaluate learning in them. In this chapter we provide a brief overview of the VCAPS process. Second, we interpret learning in our VCAPS process using a combination of a socio-cultural theory of action and a framework from developmental psychology. Third, we reflect upon how these insights informed the development of the VCAPS process. Fourth, we comment on the lessons learned for the theory and practice of learning in participatory modeling.

Part I: Signs of Change Part II: Forcing Change Part III: Driving Climate Change Part IV: Expected Consequences Part V: Responding to Change Part VI: Committing to Solutions Part VII: Climate Change Data

Regional newspaper coverage from 1998 to 2007 is examined to expand our understanding of the complexity of drought impacts and vulnerability in the Carolinas. Coverage at the height of two droughts reports drought effects extending beyond first-order impacts on broadly recognized sectors, such as agriculture, livestock, and water supplies to recreation and tourism and impacts on businesses, manufacturing, and households. Impacts were accompanied by social controversies with near-term and long-term planning and development implications. Key concepts in vulnerability analysis were used to structure the review of vulnerability reporting. The coverage of differential vulnerability, although limited, identified individual, household, local, and cross-scale factors that influenced the severity of impacts. Articles also highlighted additional interacting stresses in some sectors contributing to the severity of impacts experienced. An elaborated understanding of drought impacts and vulnerabilities is a necessary, early step in advancing efforts to developing a risk-based drought management approach.

The increasing availability of web mapping tools creates new opportunities to bridge decision-makers’ climate information needs with technical capabilities. These new tools, however, raise familiar, unresolved issues related to cartographic representation. Using an on-line drought mapping tool, this study seeks to understand which spatial unit best meets the desire drought managers have for “local” information, their comprehension of uncertainties introduced in mapping information at local scales, and their willingness to trade off accuracy for information at a desired unit. We found that the most useful local map information includes regional context and boundaries which present their local area of interest. Even among this experienced, well-educated, professional group, those who had not taken a GIS or cartography class did not fully recognize the role of interpolation in creating and introducing uncertainty to some drought maps. Those who did recognize the uncertainty introduced by interpolation still strongly favored maps that provided estimated values for all areas vs. station point accuracy. Mapping poses a unique set of challenges to communicating risk and uncertainty. As more decision-support efforts incorporate web mapping, greater attention is needed to assure that users understand the tradeoffs between accuracy and precision in creating local information, the imprecision of boundaries, as well as the limits of forecasts. Clearly conveying spatial accuracy and uncertainty is a challenge that merits greater attention in using maps to communicate drought and other environmental risk information.

A mail survey of community water systems (CWS) managers in South Carolina and in Pennsylvania's Susquehanna River Basin addresses perceptions of climate vulnerabilities. Managers report the nature of vulnerabilities to 10 weather and climate events. More detailed analysis of droughts, lightning strikes, and floods shows that the most significant concerns reflect financial and technological challenges. Neither water system size nor water source is a consistent indicator of perceived vulnerability. Regarding droughts, the expected severity of impacts relates significantly to experience with prior droughts, expectations of financial problems, and difficulty meeting water quality requirements. In order for vulnerability analysis to better inform adaptation processes, further research is needed into the management challenges resulting from the interaction of diverse climate events, technological systems, and public expectations.

This article reviews progress in understanding climate variability and change and how such understanding might better contribute to decision processes and the design of decision support tools. We emphasize the value of collaborative engagement between climate information users and scientists to continue innovation in this area. Our assessment presents opportunities for geographic perspectives and insights that can increase understanding of the physical processes causing interannual variability and improve climate model output for climate impact assessment. As decision-makers’ interests expand to address adaptation, nature-society research can also contribute significantly to understanding the diversity of climate information users, their evolving needs, and to the development of strategies for communicating risk and uncertainty.

Experts contend that weather and climate forecasts could have an important role in risk management strategies for community water systems. Yet, most water managers make minimal use of these forecasts. This research explores the determinants of the use of weather and climate forecasts by surveying managers of community water systems in two eastern American states (South Carolina and the Susquehanna River Basin of Pennsylvania). Assessments of the reliability of weather and climate forecasts are not driving their use as water managers who find forecasts reliable are no more likely to use them than are managers who find them unreliable. Although larger systems and those depending on surface water are more likely to use forecasts for some (but not all) purposes, the strongest determinant of forecast use is risk perceptions. Water managers who expect to face problems from weather events in the next decade are much more likely to use forecasts than are water managers who expect few problems. Their expectations of future problems are closely linked with past experience: water managers who have had problems with specific types of weather events (e.g., flood emergencies) in the last 5 years are likely to expect to experience problems in the next decade. Feeling at risk, regardless of the specific source of that weather-related risk, stimulates a decision to use weather and climate forecasts.

Despite potential benefits for resource planning, community water systems managers have not used seasonal climate forecasts extensively. Obstacles to forecast use include a lack of awareness of their existence, distrust of their accuracy, perceived irrelevance to management decisions, and competition from other technological innovations. In this paper, ways in which seasonal forecasts might be extended to address more directly some concerns of South Carolina community water systems managers are explored. From May 1998 through August 2002, this group experienced drought conditions that threatened water quality and supply and required restrictions on water consumption. Methods for incorporating long lead forecasts with joint probabilities of monthly temperature and precipitation to produce drought forecasts are demonstrated. When tailored to specific places, such forecasts show the likelihood of exceeding drought thresholds that would trigger water use restrictions. The methods illustrate how long lead forecasts can be extended and customized into secondary products that address issues of greater relevance to water resource managers.