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Background: As new therapeutic options become available, better understanding the potential impact of emerging therapies on clinical outcomes of hepatits D virus (HDV) is critical., Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a natural history model for patients with hepatitis D virus., Methods: We developed a model (decision tree followed by a Markov cohort model) in adults with chronic HDV infection to assess the natural history and impact of novel treatments on disease progression versus best supportive care (BSC). The model time horizon was over a lifetime (up to 100 years of age); state transitions and health states were defined by responder status. Patients in fibrosis stages 0 through 4 received treatment; decompensated patients were not treated. Response was defined as the combined response endpoint of achievement of HDV-RNA undetectability/≥2-log 10 decline and alanine aminotransferase normalization; response rates of 50% and 75% were explored. Health events associated with advanced liver disease were modeled as the number of events per 10,000 patients. Scenario analyses of early treatment, alternate treatment response, and no fibrosis regression for treatment responders were also explored., Results: The model was able to reflect disease progression similarly to published natural history studies for patients with HBV/HDV infection. In a hypothetical cohort of patients reflecting a population enrolled in a recent clinical trial, fewer advanced liver disease events were observed with a novel HDV treatment versus BSC. Fewer liver-related deaths were observed under 50% and 75% response (900 and 1,358 fewer deaths, respectively, per 10,000 patients). Scenario analyses showed consistently fewer advanced liver disease events with HDV treatment compared with BSC, with greater reductions observed with earlier treatment., Conclusion: This HDV disease progression model replicated findings from natural history studies. Furthermore, it found that a hypothetical HDV treatment results in better clinical outcomes for patients versus BSC, with greater benefit observed when starting treatment early. This validated natural history model for HBV/HDV infection can serve as a foundation for future clinical and economic analyses of novel HDV treatments that can support healthcare stakeholders in the management of patients with chronic HDV., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Aims: Patients with obstructive hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (oHCM) experience significant clinical burden which is associated with a high economic burden. Peak oxygen uptake (pVO2), measured by cardiopulmonary exercise testing, is used to quantify functional capacity, and has been studied as a primary endpoint in recent clinical trials. This study aimed to gather evidence to consolidate the prognostic value of pVO2 in oHCM and to assess whether it is feasible to predict health outcomes in an economic model based on changes in pVO2., Methods: A targeted literature review was conducted in MEDLINE ( via PubMed) and Embase databases to identify evidence on the prognostic value of pVO2 as a surrogate health outcome to support future oHCM economic model development. Following screening, study characteristics, population characteristics, and pVO2 prognostic association data were extracted., Results: A total of 4,687 studies were identified. In total, 3,531 and 538 studies underwent title/abstract and full-text screening, respectively, of which 151 were included and nine of these were in hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM); only three studies focused on oHCM. The nine HCM studies consisted of one systematic literature review and eight primary studies reporting on 27 potentially predictive relationships from a pVO2-based metric with clinical outcomes including all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, sudden cardiac death, transplant, paroxysmal, and permanent atrial fibrillation. pVO2 was described as a predictor of single and composite endpoints, in three and six studies, respectively, with one study reporting on both., Limitations: This study primarily uses systemic literature review methods but does not qualify as one due to not entailing parallel reviewers during title-abstract and full-text stages of review., Conclusion: The findings of this study suggest pVO2 is predictive of multiple health outcomes, providing a rationale to use pVO2 in the development of an economic model.