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International production networks in machinery industry have formed three large clusters, each of which is in East Asia, North America, and Europe. This paper investigates the recent evolvement of the connection between Factory Asia and Factory North America with highlighting the role of Latin American countries as a mediator. For this purpose, we utilized trade matrices and gravity equations to measure each country's level of commitment to each bilateral machinery trade after controlling the size of the economies, distance, and others. Our major findings are threefold: first, Mexico is the only Latin American country that plays a connecting role between two Factories. Second, in 2010–2019, the linkage of exports to Mexico from not only China but also other East Asian countries is strengthened particularly in machinery parts and components. Third, export linkage of China with Mexico is further intensified in 2019–2021 particularly in machinery parts and components due to the US-China confrontation, the USMCA, and other factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In regional trade agreements (RTAs), member countries choose a common rule of origin (RoO) for each product. This study examines the factors that influence RoOs in four ASEAN‐plus‐one RTAs, which are agreements between ASEAN and four individual countries. One unique feature is that ASEAN as a whole negotiates with a plus‐one country, which may dilute the interests of individual ASEAN countries at large. Our findings are summarised as follows. First, the more restrictive RoOs are set in the products where plus‐one countries are less competitive against most ASEAN countries. Second, the more restrictive RoOs are likely to be imposed in products that plus‐one countries protect with higher most favoured nation tariffs. These two results reflect the bargaining power among a plus‐on country and ASEAN countries and indicate that plus‐one's preference influences RoOs more strongly. Third, we find contrasting results between intermediate and final products. RoOs are likely to be less restrictive in intermediate products and more restrictive in final products when plus‐one countries have higher export competitiveness or when the majority of ASEAN countries have higher MFN tariffs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supply chain decoupling in the US–China confrontation has generated serious uncertainties for private businesses. This paper focuses on machinery international production networks in East Asia and tries to find quantitative evidence on supply chain decoupling by using international trade statistics, particularly from the viewpoint of middle powers such as Japan. While data on the sectoral level of trade do not show any clear evidence of supply chain decoupling, some specific US export controls indeed affect international transactions when examined at a finely disaggregated level. We econometrically measure the effect of some of the US policies on Japanese exports to China. The recent strengthening of US export controls related to supercomputers and advanced integrated circuits is likely to generate further effects. Nevertheless, the supply chain decoupling seems to end up as a partial one, and a large portion of International Production Networks (IPNs) may remain active. In conclusion, the paper briefly discusses the policy implications of the analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]