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Increasing fire severity and warmer, drier postfire conditions are making forests in the western United States (West) vulnerable to ecological transformation. Yet, the relative importance of and interactions between these drivers of forest change remain unresolved, particularly over upcoming decades. Here, we assess how the interactive impacts of changing climate and wildfire activity influenced conifer regeneration after 334 wildfires, using a dataset of postfire conifer regeneration from 10,230 field plots. Our findings highlight declining regeneration capacity across the West over the past four decades for the eight dominant conifer species studied. Postfire regeneration is sensitive to high-severity fire, which limits seed availability, and postfire climate, which influences seedling establishment. In the near-term, projected differences in recruitment probability between low- and high-severity fire scenarios were larger than projected climate change impacts for most species, suggesting that reductions in fire severity, and resultant impacts on seed availability, could partially offset expected climate-driven declines in postfire regeneration. Across 40 to 42% of the study area, we project postfire conifer regeneration to be likely following low-severity but not high-severity fire under future climate scenarios (2031 to 2050). However, increasingly warm, dry climate conditions are projected to eventually outweigh the influence of fire severity and seed availability. The percent of the study area considered unlikely to experience conifer regeneration, regardless of fire severity, increased from 5% in 1981 to 2000 to 26 to 31% by mid-century, highlighting a limited time window over which management actions that reduce fire severity may effectively support postfire conifer regeneration.

Fire is an integral component of ecosystems globally and a tool that humans have harnessed for millennia. Altered fire regimes are a fundamental cause and consequence of global change, impacting people and the biophysical systems on which they depend. As part of the newly emerging Anthropocene, marked by human-caused climate change and radical changes to ecosystems, fire danger is increasing, and fires are having increasingly devastating impacts on human health, infrastructure, and ecosystem services. Increasing fire danger is a vexing problem that requires deep transdisciplinary, trans-sector, and inclusive partnerships to address. Here, we outline barriers and opportunities in the next generation of fire science and provide guidance for investment in future research. We synthesize insights needed to better address the long-standing challenges of innovation across disciplines to (i) promote coordinated research efforts; (ii) embrace different ways of knowing and knowledge generation; (iii) promote exploration of fundamental science; (iv) capitalize on the “firehose” of data for societal benefit; and (v) integrate human and natural systems into models across multiple scales. Fire science is thus at a critical transitional moment. We need to shift from observation and modeled representations of varying components of climate, people, vegetation, and fire to more integrative and predictive approaches that support pathways toward mitigating and adapting to our increasingly flammable world, including the utilization of fire for human safety and benefit. Only through overcoming institutional silos and accessing knowledge across diverse communities can we effectively undertake research that improves outcomes in our more fiery future.

Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, forest recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer and drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome of the loss of resilience is the conversion of the prefire forest to a different forest type or nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, and enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, or functions, with impacts on ecosystem services. In the present article, we synthesize a growing body of evidence of fire-driven conversion and our understanding of its causes across western North America. We assess our capacity to predict conversion and highlight important uncertainties. Increasing forest vulnerability to changing fire activity and climate compels shifts in management approaches, and we propose key themes for applied research coproduced by scientists and managers to support decision-making in an era when the prefire forest may not return.

Increasing wildfire activity in western North America has the potential to remove forest canopy cover over large areas, increasing the vulnerability of understory plants and juvenile trees to microclimatic extremes. To understand the impacts of wildfire on forest microclimatic buffering, we monitored daily temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) in 33 plots over the first two growing seasons following two wildfires from 2017. The Lolo Peak and Sunrise fires occurred during a regionally extensive fire season, burning mixed‐conifer and subalpine forests across complex mountainous topography in western Montana. Sensors were deployed from June to September in 2018 and 2019 in sites stratified by aspect, elevation, and fire severity (unburned, moderate, high) to capture a range of forest types, biophysical contexts, and fire effects. Loss of canopy and understory vegetation had marked effects on microclimate: On average, sites burned at high severity had 3.7°C higher daily maximum temperatures and 0.81 kPa higher daily maximum VPD relative to paired unburned sites. Differences between burned and unburned sites were most pronounced when ambient temperatures were high, across diurnal and seasonal time scales. Differences were also more pronounced at sites with less canopy cover, more bare ground postfire, and greater long‐term water availability (i.e., low climatic water deficit). Our results reveal fire‐caused changes in microclimate extremes that are biologically meaningful for the postfire establishment of tree seedlings and understory vegetation. These effects depend strongly on biophysical context, with cool‐wet forests more vulnerable to fire‐caused changes in microclimate compared with warm‐dry settings. Our results further highlight the functional importance of standing dead trees for moderating surface temperature in postfire environments. Anticipating forest ecosystem responses to increased warming and wildfire activity, and the potential for fire to catalyze vegetation changes, thus requires considering the substantial impacts of fire on microclimate.

Large-scale global reforestation goals have been proposed to help mitigate climate change and provide other ecosystem services. To explore reforestation potential in the United States, we used GIS analyses, surveys of nursery managers and foresters, and literature synthesis to assess the opportunities and challenges associated with meeting proposed reforestation goals. We considered a scenario where 26 million hectares (64 million acres) of natural and agricultural lands are reforested by 2040 with 30 billion trees at an estimated cost of $33 ($24–$53) billion USD. Cost per hectare will vary by region, site conditions, and other factors. This scenario would require increasing the number of tree seedlings produced each year by 1.7 billion, a 2.3-fold increase over current nursery production levels. Additional investment (not included in the reforestation cost estimate) will be needed to expand capacity for seed collection, seedling production, workforce development, and improvements in pre- and post-planting practices. Achieving this scenario will require public support for investing in these activities and incentives for landowners.

Fire is a dominant driver of ecosystem patterns and processes across the Rocky Mountains. This chapter describes fire ecology and fire-related management for the major forest types in the Rocky Mountains. Major forest types included are ponderosa pine, Douglas-fir, mixed-conifer, lodgepole pine, spruce-fir, five-needle pines, and aspen. For each forest type we describe historical fire regimes, interactions between fire and other disturbances, departures from historical patterns, and projected future patterns. We explain fire resistance and postfire recovery patterns. We also include projected alterations to fire regimes and ecological implications due to climate change, with common silvicultural and fuel treatment options for restoration and wildfire mitigation. This information provides a comprehensive examination of contemporary fire ecology and management options in the Rocky Mountains, couched in a historical perspective.

Accurately aging trees is critical for understanding tree demography and tree responses to environmental change. Given the proliferation of studies aimed at understanding the effects of climate and disturbance on forest ecosystems, it is important to understand the tradeoffs between field-based age estimates and precise dendrochronological techniques. We assessed the accuracy of age estimates from node counts in the field against precise tree-ring counts at the root-shoot boundary, in 1279 ponderosa pine and 1268 Douglas-fir seedlings sampled from across three study regions in the western U.S. We also assessed the accuracy of age estimates from bud-scar counts in the field against node counts and precise tree-ring counts in a subset of 757 seedlings from the Northern Rockies. Node counts systematically underestimated ring counts by an average of 4.1 years, with bias increasing with tree age. At annual, ±1-, ±2-, and ±5-yr precision, the accuracy of node counts was 5%, 15%, 29%, and 74% across all regions and species, respectively. Similar results were found for bud scars. Given the magnitude of the bias between field-based methods and ring counts, it is critical to select appropriate aging methods, based on the precision required to answer specific ecological questions. To improve the accuracy of field-based age estimates in these species, we provide a tool for correcting for the bias when precise dendrochronological aging is not feasible.

Forest canopies buffer climate extremes and promote microclimates that may function as refugia for understory species under changing climate. However, the biophysical conditions that promote and maintain microclimatic buffering and its stability through time are largely unresolved. We posited that forest microclimatic buffering is sensitive to local water balance and canopy cover, and we measured this effect during the growing season across a climate gradient in forests of the northwestern United States (US). We found that forest canopies buffer extremes of maximum temperature and vapor pressure deficit (VPD), with biologically meaningful effect sizes. For example, during the growing season, maximum temperature and VPD under at least 50% forest canopy were 5.3°C and 1.1 kPa lower on average, respectively, compared to areas without canopy cover. Canopy buffering of temperature and vapor pressure deficit was greater at higher levels of canopy cover, and varied with water balance, implying that buffering effects are subject to changes in local hydrology. We project changes in the water balance for the mid‐21st century and predict how such changes may impact the ability of western US forests to buffer climate extremes. Our results suggest that some forests will lose their capacity to buffer climate extremes as sites become increasingly water limited. Changes in water balance combined with accelerating canopy losses due to increases in the frequency and severity of disturbance will create potentially non‐linear changes in the microclimate conditions of western US forests.

To best understand plant invasions and predict unexpected outcomes it is necessary to integrate information on disturbance, the local environment, and demography. Disturbance by fire has been shown to promote invasions worldwide, but precise interactions between fire, native and invading species remain unclear. Indeed, trade-offs exist between fire-induced mortality of seed sources and increased establishment, driving invasion outcomes. A positive feedback between lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) invasions and fire has been identified but only above a certain pine density. Above this threshold, fire resulted in increased pine dominance at the plot level, however below this threshold establishment rates did not change. We used a spatially explicit invasion simulation model modified to include fire to explore the implications of these complex interactions between pine invasions and fire. We asked if fire promoted P. contorta invasion across a Patagonian steppe site and if this depended on the age of the invasion when it burned. Our simulations indicated that, although fire was not necessary to initiate invasion, fire in communities where pine invasions were at least 10 years old resulted in increased spatial extent and maximum invasion density compared to unburned simulations. Fire through younger invasions did not alter the progression of the invasion compared to unburned simulations. Pine invasions should be managed before they reach an advanced stage where positive feedbacks between fire and pine invasion could lead to dramatic increases in invasion rate. Fil: Davis, Kimberley T.. University of Montana; Estados Unidos Fil: Maxwell, Bruce D.. State University of Montana; Estados Unidos Fil: Caplat, Paul. The Queens University of Belfast; Irlanda Fil: Pauchard, Aníbal. Universidad de Concepción; Chile. Universidad de Chile. Facultad de Ciencias. Instituto de Ecología y Biodiversidad; Chile Fil: Nuñez, Martin Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentina

Invasive plant impacts vary widely across introduced ranges. We tested the hypothesis that differences in the eco-evolutionary experience of native communities with the invader correspond with the impacts of invasive species on native vegetation, with impacts increasing with ecological novelty. We compared plant species richness and composition beneath Pinus contorta to that in adjacent vegetation and other P. contorta stands across a network of sites in its native (Canada and USA) and non-native (Argentina, Chile, Finland, New Zealand, Scotland, Sweden) ranges. At sites in North America and Europe, within the natural distribution of the genus Pinus, P. contorta was not associated with decreases in diversity. In the Southern Hemisphere, where there are no native Pinaceae, plant communities beneath P. contorta were less diverse than in other regions and compared to uninvaded native vegetation. Effects on native vegetation were particularly pronounced where P. contorta was a more novel life form and exhibited higher growth rates. Our results support the hypothesis that the eco-evolutionary experience of the native vegetation, and thus the novelty of the invader, determines the magnitude of invader impacts on native communities. Understanding the eco-evolutionary context of invasions will help to better understand and predict where invasion impacts will be greatest and to prioritize invasive species management. Fil: Davis, Kimberley T.. University of Montana; Estados Unidos Fil: Callaway, Ragan. University of Montana; Estados Unidos Fil: Fajardo, Alex. Universidad Austral de Chile; Chile Fil: Pauchard, Aníbal. Universidad de Concepción; Chile Fil: Nuñez, Martin Andres. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Patagonia Norte. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente. Universidad Nacional del Comahue. Centro Regional Universidad Bariloche. Instituto de Investigaciones en Biodiversidad y Medioambiente; Argentina Fil: Brooker, Rob. The James Hutton Institute; Reino Unido Fil: Maxwell, Bruce. State University of Montana; Estados Unidos Fil: Dimarco, Romina Daniela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Patagonia Norte. Estación Experimental Agropecuaria San Carlos de Bariloche. Laboratorio de Ecología de Insectos; Argentina Fil: Peltzer, Duane. Landcare Research; Nueva Zelanda Fil: Mason, Bill. Forest Research. Northern Research Station; Reino Unido Fil: Ruotsalainen, Seppo. Natural Resources Institute Finland; Finlandia Fil: McIntosh, Anne. University of Alberta; Canadá Fil: Pakeman, Robin. The James Hutton Institute; Reino Unido Fil: Smith, Alyssa Laney. University of Arizona; Estados Unidos Fil: Gundale, Michael. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences; Suecia