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We introduce a new methodology to conduct simultaneous inference of the nonparametric component in partially linear time series regression models where the nonparametric part is a multivariate unknown function. In particular, we construct a simultaneous confidence region (SCR) for the multivariate function by extending the high-dimensional Gaussian approximation to dependent processes with continuous index sets. Our results allow for a more general dependence structure compared to previous works and are widely applicable to a variety of linear and nonlinear autoregressive processes. We demonstrate the validity of our proposed methodology by examining the finite-sample performance in the simulation study. Finally, an application in time series, the forward premium regression, is presented, where we construct the SCR for the foreign exchange risk premium from the exchange rate and macroeconomic data., Comment: 61 pages, 6 figures

We suggest a new single-equation test for Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) based on a dynamic regression approach. The method provides consistent and asymptotically efficient parameter estimates, and is not dependent on assumptions of strict exogeneity. This new approach is asymptotically more efficient than the common approach of using OLS with HAC robust standard errors in the static forward premium regression. The coefficient estimates when spot return changes are regressed on the forward premium are all positive and remarkably stable across currencies. These estimates are considerably larger than those of previous studies, which frequently find negative coefficients. The method also has the advantage of showing dynamic effects of risk premia, or other events that may lead to rejection of UIP or the efficient markets hypothesis.

Autocovariance of the error term in a time series model plays a key role in the estimation and inference for the model that it belongs to. Typically, some arbitrary parametric structure is assumed upon the error to simplify the estimation, which inevitably introduces potential model-misspecification. We thus conduct nonparametric estimation of it. To avoid the difficult bandwidth selection issue under the traditional nonparametric truncation approach, this paper conducts the Bayesian estimation of its spectral density in a frequency domain. To this end, we consider two cases: fixed error variance and time-varying one. Each approach is taken to estimate the spectral density of the autocovariance and the model parameters. The methodology is applied to exchange rate forecasting and proves to compete favorably against some benchmark models, including the random walk without drift., Comment: See https://github.com/junpeea/NSBTR

Least squares regression with heteroskedasticity consistent standard errors ("OLS-HC regression") has proved very useful in cross section environments. However, several major difficulties, which are generally overlooked, must be confronted when transferring the HC technology to time series environments via heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors ("OLS-HAC regression"). First, in plausible time-series environments, OLS parameter estimates can be inconsistent, so that OLS-HAC inference fails even asymptotically. Second, most economic time series have autocorrelation, which renders OLS parameter estimates inefficient. Third, autocorrelation similarly renders conditional predictions based on OLS parameter estimates inefficient. Finally, the structure of popular HAC covariance matrix estimators is ill-suited for capturing the autoregressive autocorrelation typically present in economic time series, which produces large size distortions and reduced power in HAC-based hypothesis testing, in all but the largest samples. We show that all four problems are largely avoided by the use of a simple and easily-implemented dynamic regression procedure, which we call DURBIN. We demonstrate the advantages of DURBIN with detailed simulations covering a range of practical issues.

Spinal cord stimulation has enabled humans with motor complete spinal cord injury (SCI) to independently stand and recover some lost autonomic function. Quantifying the quality of bipedal standing under spinal stimulation is important for spinal rehabilitation therapies and for new strategies that seek to combine spinal stimulation and rehabilitative robots (such as exoskeletons) in real time feedback. To study the potential for automated electromyography (EMG) analysis in SCI, we evaluated the standing quality of paralyzed patients undergoing electrical spinal cord stimulation using both video and multi-channel surface EMG recordings during spinal stimulation therapy sessions. The quality of standing under different stimulation settings was quantified manually by experienced clinicians. By correlating features of the recorded EMG activity with the expert evaluations, we show that multi-channel EMG recording can provide accurate, fast, and robust estimation for the quality of bipedal standing in spinally stimulated SCI patients. Moreover, our analysis shows that the total number of EMG channels needed to effectively predict standing quality can be reduced while maintaining high estimation accuracy, which provides more flexibility for rehabilitation robotic systems to incorporate EMG recordings.

Low dimensional embeddings that capture the main variations of interest in collections of data are important for many applications. One way to construct these embeddings is to acquire estimates of similarity from the crowd. However, similarity is a multi-dimensional concept that varies from individual to individual. Existing models for learning embeddings from the crowd typically make simplifying assumptions such as all individuals estimate similarity using the same criteria, the list of criteria is known in advance, or that the crowd workers are not influenced by the data that they see. To overcome these limitations we introduce Context Embedding Networks (CENs). In addition to learning interpretable embeddings from images, CENs also model worker biases for different attributes along with the visual context i.e. the visual attributes highlighted by a set of images. Experiments on two noisy crowd annotated datasets show that modeling both worker bias and visual context results in more interpretable embeddings compared to existing approaches., Comment: CVPR 2018 spotlight

The paper proposes a specification test based on two estimates of distribution function. One is the traditional kernel distribution function estimate and the other is a newly proposed convolution-type distribution function estimate. Asymptotic properties of the new estimate are studied when the innovation density is known and when it is unknown. The MISE-type statistic based on these estimates is suggested to test parametric specifications of the mean and volatility functions. The relating asymptotic results are obtained and the finite-sample properties are studied based on the bootstrap methodology. A simulation study shows that the proposed test competes favorably to benchmark tests in terms of the empirical level and power.