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Examining changes in abundance and demographic rates at species distribution margins may provide the first signs of broader species responses to environmental change. Still, the joint impact of space and time have remained relatively unstudied in most marginal regions. In order to examine the influence of climate variability on mussel distribution patterns, we monitored three sublittoral and marginal blue mussel (Mytilus trossulus) populations, spaced along a salinity gradient. Densities and biomasses peaked toward the saltier parts of the study area and showed relatively larger variations toward the low saline edge. Temporally, the areas showed a consistent increase in abundance after a synchronized large-scale recruitment event, which was followed by a decline in population size, occurring much faster toward the very range edge. Salinity, temperature, winter severity, and wave exposure explained most of the spatiotemporal variation in mussel abundances and adults showed positive effects on recruit abundance. We show empirically that the dynamics of edge populations are not driven by large changes in climate variables but that small spatial and temporal changes in key environmental variables have large and non-linear population level effects. Our results also show that fluctuating recruitment is a key factor for population stability affecting the storage potential of marginal populations, which dramatically decrease toward the edge. Our study provides a window into future population patterns and processes that drive marginal mussel populations in an altered sea characterized by rising temperature and declining salinity.

This report addresses changes in population size in five species of diving ducks breeding and wintering in the Baltic Sea. Declines in breeding Greater Scaup, Eider and Velvet Scoters on the Baltic coast are verified. Long-tailed Ducks and Eiders have declined in winter. Breeding Eiders have declined in Norway. Monitoring programs in all Nordic countries are partly inadequate for detecting changes in numbers of birds both in winter and during breeding, but large-scale trends appear reliable. The reasons for the declines observed are largely unknown. For breeding Eiders in the northern part of the Baltic Sea a change in predation regimes on the breeding islands may be important. If the negative trends are to be stopped, a deeper understanding of the drivers involved and better knowledge about the ecological status of the Baltic Sea food webs utilized by the diving ducks are needed.

The effects of an extensive bloom of the potentially toxic Prymnesium polylepis (Haptophyta) on breeding eiders (Somateria mollissima) in the Baltic Sea were analysed. Increasing abundances of the alternate stage P. polylepis was detected by a marine monitoring programme in the autumn 2007. The bloom peaked between March and May 2008 in the southern, central and northwestern Baltic Proper and abundances of up to 5 x 106 cells l- 1 were recorded. At several sites P. polylepis constituted between 30 and 90% of the total phytoplankton biovolume. The flagellate was only recorded in low numbers in the northeastern Baltic Proper and Gulf of Finland. The abundances were low in 2007, 2009 and 2010. In 28 eider colonies situated in the southern and central Baltic Proper, sharp and synchronous declines in the number of nesting eiders were observed from 2007 to 2008. In colonies on Gotland in the central Baltic Proper, a 76% decrease, from 6650 nests to 1620 nests, was followed by increases in 2009 and 2010, although not up to numbers observed in 2007. At Utklippan and Ertholmene in the southern Baltic Proper, the observed decreases of 55%, from 144 to 65 nests, and 36%, from 1660 to 1060 nests, respectively, between 2007 and 2008, were followed by increases in 2009 and 2010 up to the level observed in 2007. By contrast, no general decline of the number of nesting eiders was observed from 2007 to 2008 in 75 colonies in the northeastern Baltic Proper and Gulf of Finland. Hence, the spatial distribution of the P. polylepis bloom in 2008 closely matched the observed distribution of extensive non-breeding of female eiders. We suggest that the intensive spring bloom of P. polylepis, either through a toxic or non-toxic pathway, affected the main benthic food of eiders, i.e. blue mussels (Mytilus trossulus x Mytilus edulis), at pre-breeding foraging sites close to the breeding sites, and, subsequently, the body condition of adult female eiders and their breeding propensity.