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The assessment of ecosystem quality and the maintenance of optimal ecosystem function require understanding vegetation area dynamics and their relationship with climate variables. This study aims to detect vegetation area changes downstream of the Hali dam, which was built in 2009, and to understand the influence of the dam as well as climatic variables on the region’s vegetation areas from 2000 to 2020. The case study is located in an arid area with an average rainfall amount from 50 to 100 mm/year. An analysis of seasonal changes in vegetation areas was conducted using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and supervised image classification was used to evaluate changes in vegetation areas using Landsat imagery. Pearson correlation and multivariate linear regression were used to assess the response of local vegetation areas to both hydrologic changes due to dam construction and climate variability. The NDVI analysis revealed a considerable vegetation decline after the dam construction in the dry season. This is primarily associated with the impoundment of seasonal water by the dam and the increase in cropland areas due to dam irrigation. A significantly stronger correlation between vegetation changes and precipitation and temperature variations was observed before the dam construction. Furthermore, multivariant linear regression was used to evaluate the variations in equivalent water thickness (EWT), climate data, and NDVI before and after the dam construction. The results suggested that 85 percent of the variability in the mean NDVI was driven by climate variables and EWT before the dam construction. On the other hand, it was found that only 42 percent of the variations in the NDVI were driven by climate variables and EWT from 2010 to 2020 for both dry and wet seasons.

During the period 2019–2020, Lake Victoria water levels rose at an alarming rate that has caused various problems in the region. The influence of this phenomena on surface and subsurface water resources has not yet been investigated, largely due to lack of enough in situ measurements compounded by the spatial coverage of the lake’s basin, incomplete/inconsistent hydrometeorological data, and unavailable governmental data. Within the framework of joint data assimilation into a land surface model from multi-mission satellite remote sensing, this study employs the state-of-art Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment follow-on (GRACE-FO) time-variable terrestrial water storage (TWS), newly released ERA-5 reanalysis, and satellite radar altimetry products to understand the cause of the rise of Lake Victoria on the one hand, and the associated impacts of the rise on the total water storage compartments (surface and groundwater) triggered by the extreme climatic event on the other hand. In addition, the study investigates the impacts of large-scale ocean–atmosphere indices on the water storage changes. The results indicate a considerable increase in water storage over the past two years, with multiple subsequent positive trends mainly induced by the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Significant storage increase is also quantified in various water components such as surface water and water discharge, where the results show the lake’s water level rose by ∼ 1.4 m, leading to approximately 1750 gigatonne volume increase. Multiple positive trends are observed in the past two years in the lake’s water storage increase with two major events in April–May 2019 and December 2019–January 2020, with the rainfall occurring during the short rainy season of September to November (SON) having had a dominant effect on the lake’s rise.

Global hydrological models facilitate studying of water resources and their variations over time. The accuracies of these models are enhanced when combined with ever-increasing satellite remotely sensed data. Traditionally, these combinations are done via data assimilation approach, which permits the use of improved hydrological outputs to study regions with limited in-situ measurements such as the Nile Basin. This study aims at using the state-of-art satellite radar altimetry data to enhance a land-based hydrological model for studying water storage changes over the Nile Basin. Altimetry-derived surface water storage, for the first time, is assimilated into the model using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) for the period of 2003 to 2016. Multiple datasets from ground measurements, as well as space observations, are used to evaluate the performance of the assimilated satellite altimetry data. Results indicate that the assimilation successfully improves model outputs, especially the surface water component. The process increases the correlation between surface water storage changes and water level variations from satellite radar altimetry by 0.44 and reduces the surface water discharge root-mean-square errors (RMSE) by approximately 33%.

Lake Victoria (LV), the world's second largest freshwater lake, supports a livelihood of more than 42 million people and modulates the regional climate. Studying its changes resulting from impacts of climate variation/change and anthropogenic is, therefore, vital for its sustainable use. Owing to its shear size, however, it is a daunting task to undertake such study relying solely on in-situ measurements, which are sparse, either missing, inconsistent or restricted by governmental red tapes. Remotely sensed products provide a valuable alternative but come with a penalty of being mostly incoherent with each other as they originate from different sources, have different underlying assumptions and models. This study pioneers a procedure that uses a Simple Weighting approach to merge LV's multi-mission satellite precipitation and evaporation data from various sources and then improves them through a Postprocessing Filtering (PF) scheme to provide coherent datasets of precipitation (p), evaporation (e), water storage changes (Δs), and discharge (q) that accounts for its water budget closure. Principal component analysis (PCA) is then applied to the merged-improved products to analyze LV's spatio-temporal changes resulting from impacts of climate variation/change. Compared to the original unmerged data (0.62 and 0.37 average correlation for two samples), the merged-improved products are largely in agreement (0.91 average correlation). Furthermore, smaller imbalances between the merged-improved products are obtained with precipitation (37%) and water storage changes (35%) being the largest contributors to LV's water budget. This data improvement scheme could be applicable to any inland lake of a size similar to LV.

The Australian and African continents, regions prone to hydroclimate extremes (e.g., droughts and floods), but with sparse distribution of rain-gauge that are limited in time, rely heavily on complementary satellite and reanalysis data to provide important crucial information necessary for informing policies and management. The problem, however, is that satellite products suffer from systematic biases while reanalysis products carry over uncertainties from their forcing parameters. Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) is a new global rainfall-product that merges satellite, rain-gauge and re-analysis data to exploit their advantages and minimise their disadvantages. Although MSWEP has been validated globally, this product, together with its potential applications, e.g., in water storage fluxes, river discharge and climate impacts studies over Australia and Africa, regions with urgent need of reliable products, has however, not been verified. Using GRACE satellite products, GLDAS model data, GRDC runoff products, and ENSO/IOD climate indices; five rainfall products - FLUXNET, BoM, GPCC, CHIRPS, and AgCFSR; and a suite of statistical methods (Pearson, Kolmogorov-Smirnov, PCA and Three-Corner-Hat (TCH)), this study (i) evaluates monthly MSWEP-V2.1 data (1981–2016), and (ii), assesses its potential applications to water storage flux (within the water balance framework), river discharge analysis, and climate impacts studies. The results show good MSWEP correlations and cumulative distribution with BoM product over most of Australia except in regions with heavy monsoonal rainfall, e.g., northern and north-western Australia where it tends to underestimate. Over Africa, MSWEP has no obvious advantages compared to insitu-GPCC, satellite-CHIRPS or reanalysis-AgCFSR. Furthermore, it is unable to reflect on major hydro-climate extremes over west, east and southern Africa, where it underestimates compared to CHIRPS. Its potential applications to water storage flux

Accurate soil-moisture monitoring is essential for water-resource management and agricultural applications, and is now widely undertaken using satellite remote sensing or terrestrial hydrological models’ products. While both methods have limitations, e.g. the limited soil depth resolution of space-borne data and data deficiencies in models, data-assimilation techniques can provide an alternative approach. Here, we use the recently developed data-driven Kalman–Takens approach to integrate satellite soil-moisture products with those of the Australian Water Resources Assessment system Landscape (AWRA-L) model. This is done to constrain the model’s soil-moisture simulations over Australia with those observed from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer-Earth Observing System and Soil-Moisture and Ocean Salinity between 2002 and 2017. The main objective is to investigate the ability of the integration framework to improve AWRA-L simulations of soil moisture. The improved estimates are then used to investigate spatiotemporal soil-moisture variations. The results show that the proposed model-satellite data integration approach improves the continental soil-moisture estimates by increasing their correlation to independent in situ measurements (∼10% relative to the non-assimilation estimates). Highlights Satellite soil-moisture measurements are used to improve model simulation. A data-driven approach based on Kalman–Takens is applied. The applied data-integration approach improves soil-moisture estimates.

Constant monitoring of total water storage (TWS; surface, groundwater, and soil moisture) is essential for water management and policy decisions, especially due to the impacts of climate change and anthropogenic factors. Moreover, for most countries in Africa, Asia, and South America that depend on soil moisture and groundwater for agricultural productivity, monitoring of climate change and anthropogenic impacts on TWS becomes crucial. Hydrological models are widely being used to monitor water storage changes in various regions around the world. Such models, however, comes with uncertainties mainly due to data limitations that warrant enhancement from remotely sensed satellite products. In this study over South America, remotely sensed TWS from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission is used to constrain the World-Wide Water Resources Assessment (W3RA) model estimates in order to improve their reliabilities. To this end, GRACE-derived TWS and soil moisture observations from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) are assimilated into W3RA using the Ensemble Square-Root Filter (EnSRF) in order to separately analyze groundwater and soil moisture changes for the period 2002–2013. Following the assimilation analysis, Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)’s rainfall data over 15 major basins of South America and El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) data are employed to demonstrate the advantages gained by the model from the assimilation of GRACE TWS and satellite soil moisture products in studying climatically induced TWS changes. From the results, it can be seen that assimilating these observations improves the performance of W3RA hydrological model. Significant improvements are also achieved as seen from increased correlations between TWS products and both precipitation and ENSO over a majority of basins. The improved knowledge of sub-surface water storage

Data assimilation, which relies on explicit knowledge of dynamical models, is a well-known approach that addresses models' limitations due to various reasons, such as errors in input and forcing data sets. This approach, however, requires intensive computational efforts, especially for high-dimensional systems such as distributed hydrological models. Alternatively, data-driven methods offer comparable solutions when the physics underlying the models are unknown. For the first time in a hydrological context, a nonparametric framework is implemented here to improve model estimates using available observations. This method uses Takens delay coordinate method to reconstruct the dynamics of the system within a Kalman filtering framework, called the Kalman-Takens filter. A synthetic experiment is undertaken to fully investigate the capability of the proposed method by comparing its performance with that of a standard assimilation framework based on an adaptive unscented Kalman filter (AUKF). Furthermore, using terrestrial water storage (TWS) estimates obtained from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment mission, both filters are applied to a real case scenario to update different water storages over Australia. In situ groundwater and soil moisture measurements within Australia are used to further evaluate the results. The Kalman-Takens filter successfully improves the estimated water storages at levels comparable to the AUKF results, with an average root-mean-square error reduction of 37.30% for groundwater and 12.11% for soil moisture estimates. Additionally, the Kalman-Takens filter, while reducing estimation complexities, requires a fraction of the computational time, that is, ~8 times faster compared to the AUKF approach.

© 2018 Elsevier B.V. Climate change can significantly influence terrestrial water changes around the world particularly in places that have been proven to be more vulnerable such as Bangladesh. In the past few decades, climate impacts, together with those of excessive human water use have changed the country's water availability structure. In this study, we use multi-mission remotely sensed measurements along with a hydrological model to separately analyze groundwater and soil moisture variations for the period 2003–2013, and their interactions with rainfall in Bangladesh. To improve the model's estimates of water storages, terrestrial water storage (TWS) data obtained from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission are assimilated into the World-Wide Water Resources Assessment (W3RA) model using the ensemble-based sequential technique of the Square Root Analysis (SQRA) filter. We investigate the capability of the data assimilation approach to use a non-regional hydrological model for a regional case study. Based on these estimates, we investigate relationships between the model derived sub-surface water storage changes and remotely sensed precipitations, as well as altimetry-derived river level variations in Bangladesh by applying the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) method. A larger correlation is found between river level heights and rainfalls (78% on average) in comparison to groundwater storage variations and rainfalls (57% on average). The results indicate a significant decline in groundwater storage (~32% reduction) for Bangladesh between 2003 and 2013, which is equivalent to an average rate of 8.73 ± 2.45 mm/year.

Africa, a continent endowed with huge water resources that sustain its agricultural activities is increasingly coming under threat from impacts of climate extremes (droughts and floods), which puts the very precious water resource into jeopardy. Understanding the relationship between climate variability and water storage over the continent, therefore, is paramount in order to inform future water management strategies. This study employs Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data and the higher order (fourth order cumulant) statistical independent component analysis (ICA) method to study the relationship between terrestrial water storage (TWS) changes and five global climate-teleconnection indices; El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) over Africa for the period 2003–2014. Pearson correlation analysis is applied to extract the connections between these climate indices (CIs) and TWS, from which some known strong CI-rainfall relationships (e.g., over equatorial eastern Africa) are found. Results indicate unique linear-relationships and regions that exhibit strong linkages between CIs and TWS. Moreover, unique regions having strong CI-TWS connections that are completely different from the typical ENSO-rainfall connections over eastern and southern Africa are also identified. Furthermore, the results indicate that the first dominant independent components (IC) of the CIs are linked to NAO, and are characterized by significant reductions of TWS over southern Africa. The second dominant ICs are associated with IOD and are characterized by significant increases in TWS over equatorial eastern Africa, while the combined ENSO and MJO are apparently linked to the third ICs, which are also associated with significant increase in TWS changes over both southern Africa, as well as equatorial eastern Africa.

Satellite radar altimetry observations are used to derive short wavelength gravity anomaly fields over the Persian Gulf and the Caspian Sea, where in situ and ship-borne gravity measurements have limited spatial coverage. In this study the retracking algorithm ‘Extrema Retracking’ (ExtR) was employed to improve sea surface height (SSH) measurements that are highly biased in the study regions due to land contaminations in the footprints of the satellite altimetry observations. ExtR was applied to the waveforms sampled by the five satellite radar altimetry missions: TOPEX/POSEIDON, JASON-1, JASON-2, GFO and ERS-1. Along-track slopes have been estimated from the improved SSH measurements and used in an iterative process to estimate deflections of the vertical, and subsequently, the desired gravity anomalies. The main steps of the gravity anomaly computations involve estimating improved SSH using the ExtR technique, computing deflections of the vertical from interpolated SSHs on a regular grid using a biharmonic spline interpolation and finally estimating gridded gravity anomalies. A remove–compute–restore algorithm, based on the fast Fourier transform, has been applied to convert deflections of the vertical into gravity anomalies. Finally, spline interpolation has been used to estimate regular gravity anomaly grids over the two study regions.Results were evaluated by comparing the estimated altimetry-derived gravity anomalies (with and without implementing the ExtR algorithm) with ship-borne free air gravity anomaly observations, and free air gravity anomalies from the Earth Gravitational Model 2008 (EGM2008). The comparison indicates a range of 3–5 mGal in the residuals, which were computed by taking the differences between the retracked altimetry-derived gravity anomaly and the ship-borne data. The comparison of retracked data with ship-borne data indicates a range in the root-mean-square-error (RMSE) between approximately 1.8 and 4.4 mGal and a bias between 0.4062 a