Search

ImportanceThe use of second-generation antiandrogens (AAs) in the treatment of prostate cancer is increasing. Retrospective evidence suggests an association between second-generation AAs and adverse cognitive and functional outcomes, but further data from prospective trials are needed.ObjectiveTo examine whether evidence from randomized clinical trials (RCTs) in prostate cancer supports an association between second-generation AAs and cognitive or functional toxic effects.Data SourcesPubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus (inception to September 12, 2022).Study SelectionRandomized clinical trials of second-generation AAs (abiraterone, apalutamide, darolutamide, or enzalutamide) among individuals with prostate cancer that reported cognitive toxic effects, asthenic toxic effects (eg, fatigue, weakness), or falls were evaluated.Data Extraction and SynthesisStudy screening, data abstraction, and bias assessment were completed independently by 2 reviewers following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses and Enhancing the Quality and Transparency of Health Research reporting guidelines. Tabular counts for all-grade toxic effects were determined to test the hypothesis formulated before data collection.Main Outcomes and MeasuresRisk ratios (RRs) and SEs were calculated for cognitive toxic effects, asthenic toxic effects, and falls. Because fatigue was the asthenic toxic effect extracted from all studies, data on fatigue are specified in the results. Meta-analysis and meta-regression were used to generate summary statistics.ResultsThe systematic review included 12 studies comprising 13 524 participants. Included studies had a low risk of bias. An increased risk of cognitive toxic effects (RR, 2.10; 95% CI, 1.30-3.38; P = .002) and fatigue (RR, 1.34; 95% CI, 1.16-1.54; P P = .01) and fatigue (RR, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.10-1.58; P = .003). Meta-regression supported that, across studies, increased age was associated with a greater risk of fatigue with second-generation AAs (coefficient, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.04-0.12; P P = .001).Conclusions and RelevanceThe findings of this systematic review and meta-analysis suggest that second-generation AAs carry an increased risk of cognitive and functional toxic effects, including when added to traditional forms of hormone therapy.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) is an age-dependent process detectable using advanced sequencing technologies and is associated with multiple adverse health outcomes including cardiovascular disease and cancer. The purpose of this review is to summarize known causes of CH mutations and to identify key areas and considerations for future research on CH. RECENT FINDINGS: Studies have identified multiple potential causes of CH mutations including smoking, cancer therapies, cardiometabolic disease, inflammation, and germline risk factors. Additionally, large-scale studies have facilitated the identification of gene-specific effects of CH mutation risk factors that may have unique downstream health implications. For example, cancer therapies and sources of environmental radiation appear to cause CH through their impact on DNA damage repair genes. SUMMARY: There is a growing body of evidence defining risk factors for CH mutations. Standardization in the identification of CH mutations may have important implications for future research. Additional studies in underrepresented populations and their diverse environmental exposures are needed to facilitate broad public health impact of the study of CH mutations.

Little is known regarding the potential relationship between clonal hematopoiesis (CH) of indeterminate potential (CHIP), which is the expansion of hematopoietic stem cells with somatic mutations, and risk of prostate cancer, the fifth leading cause of cancer death of men worldwide. We evaluated the association of age-related CHIP with overall and aggressive prostate cancer risk in two large whole-exome sequencing studies of 75 047 European ancestry men, including 7663 prostate cancer cases, 2770 of which had aggressive disease, and 3266 men carrying CHIP variants. We found that CHIP, defined by over 50 CHIP genes individually and in aggregate, was not significantly associated with overall (aggregate HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.76–1.13, P = 0.46) or aggressive (aggregate OR = 1.14, 95% CI = 0.92–1.41, P = 0.22) prostate cancer risk. CHIP was weakly associated with genetic risk of overall prostate cancer, measured using a polygenic risk score (OR = 1.05 per unit increase, 95% CI = 1.01–1.10, P = 0.01). CHIP was not significantly associated with carrying pathogenic/likely pathogenic/deleterious variants in DNA repair genes, which have previously been found to be associated with aggressive prostate cancer. While findings from this study suggest that CHIP is likely not a risk factor for prostate cancer, it will be important to investigate other types of CH in association with prostate cancer risk.

Better management of head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCCs) requires a clearer understanding of tumor biology and disease risk. Bitter taste receptors (T2Rs) have been studied in several cancers, including thyroid, salivary, and GI, but their role in HNSCC has not been explored. We found that HNSCC patient samples and cell lines expressed functional T2Rs on both the cell and nuclear membranes. Bitter compounds, including bacterial metabolites, activated T2R-mediated nuclear Ca2+ responses leading to mitochondrial depolarization, caspase activation and ultimately apoptosis. Buffering nuclear Ca2+ elevation blocked caspase activation. Furthermore, increased expression of T2Rs in HNSCCs from The Cancer Genome Atlas is associated with improved overall survival. This work suggests that T2Rs are potential biomarkers to predict outcomes and guide treatment selection, may be leveraged as therapeutic targets to stimulate tumor apoptosis, and may mediate tumor-microbiome crosstalk in HNSCC.

Brief unreferenced abstractThe genetics underlying cancer and cardiovascular disease have been studied for decades. However, despite sharing numerous risk factors and pathologic features, the contribution of shared genetics in these diseases remains poorly defined. Our study sought to identify common genetic factors between these two diseases. We found a unique relationship between coronary artery disease and prostate cancer that appears to be mediated through germline genetic variation in LPA.

BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer share several risk factors. While preclinical models show that various types of CVD can accelerate cancer progression, clinical studies have not determined the impact of atherosclerosis on cancer risk.ObjectivesTo determine whether CVD, especially atherosclerotic CVD, is independently associated with incident cancer.MethodsUsing IBM MarketScan claims data from over 130 million individuals, we identified 27 million cancer-free subjects with a minimum of 36 months of follow-up data. Individuals were stratified by presence or absence of CVD, with 1:1 propensity matching to control for cardiovascular risk factors, and cumulative risk of cancer was calculated. Additional analyses were performed according to CVD type (atherosclerotic vs non-atherosclerotic) and cancer subtype.ResultsAmong 4,487,412 matched individuals, those with CVD had a 1.26-fold higher relative risk of cancer than those without CVD (6.8% vs 5.4% 5-year cumulative incidence). Results were more pronounced for individuals with atherosclerotic CVD (aCVD), who had a 1.43-fold higher relative risk than those without CVD (7.7% 5-year cumulative cancer incidence). Findings persisted after multivariable adjustment for numerous traditional CV risk factors, including the modestly higher risk for cancer amongst individuals with atherosclerotic CVD. Cancer subtype analyses showed specific associations of aCVD with several malignancies, including lung, bladder, liver, brain, and other hematologic cancers.ConclusionsIndividuals with CVD have an increased risk of developing cancer compared to those without CVD. This association may be driven in part by the relationship of atherosclerosis with specific cancer subtypes, which persists after controlling for conventional risk factors.

Background: There is a paucity of data regarding the association between radiation exposure of heart substructures and the incidence of major coronary events (MCEs) in patients with esophageal cancer (ESOC) undergoing chemoradiation therapy. We studied radiation dosimetric determinants of MCE risk and measured their impact on patient prognosis using a cohort of ESOC patients treated at a single institution. Methods: Between March 2005 and October 2015, 355 ESOC patients treated with concurrent chemoradiotherapy were identified from a prospectively maintained and institutional-regulatory-board-approved clinical database. Dose-distribution parameters of the whole heart, the atria, the ventricles, the left main coronary artery, and three main coronary arteries were extracted for analysis. Results: Within a median follow-up time of 67 months, 14 patients experienced MCEs at a median of 16 months. The incidence of MCEs was significantly associated with the left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD) receiving ≥30 Gy (V30Gy) (p = 0.048). Patients receiving LAD V30Gy ≥ 10% of volume experienced a higher incidence of MCEs versus the LAD V30Gy < 10% group (p = 0.044). The relative rate of death increased with the left main coronary artery (LMA) mean dose (Gy) (p = 0.002). Furthermore, a mutual promotion effect of hyperlipidemia and RT on MCEs was observed. Conclusion: Radiation dose to coronary substructures is associated with MCEs and overall survival in patients with ESOC. In this study, the doses to these substructures appeared to be better predictors of toxicity outcomes than mean heart dose (MHD) or whole-heart V30Gy. These findings have implications for reducing coronary events through radiation therapy planning.

The standard of care for inflammatory breast cancer (IBC) is neoadjuvant chemotherapy, total mastectomy with axillary lymph node dissection (ALND), and postmastectomy radiation therapy. Existing studies suggest that sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB) may not be reliable in IBC. The use and frequency of SLNB in women with IBC is not well characterized.To determine the frequency and temporal trend of SLNB in patients with IBC.This retrospective cohort study used the National Cancer Database, a nationwide hospital-based cancer registry, and included women who were diagnosed with nonmetastatic IBC and underwent axillary surgery from 2012 to 2017. Data were analyzed from January 2021 to May 2021.Any SLNB, including SLNB alone and SLNB followed by ALND, and ALND alone.Scatterplot fit with a linear regression model were used to evaluate the yearly increase of any SLNB use. Multivariable logistic regression models to evaluate the association of study variables with the outcome of any SLNB.This study included a total of 1096 women (mean [SD] age, 56.1 [12.9] years) who were 18 years or older with nonmetastatic IBC diagnosed between 2012 and 2017. Of the 186 of 1096 women (17%) who received any SLNB, 137 (73.7%) were White individuals; and of the 910 of 1096 women (83%) who received an ALND only, 676 (74.3%) were White individuals. Among women undergoing any SLNB, 119 of 186 (64%) did not undergo a completion ALND. There was a statistically significant increasing trend in the use of SLNB from 2012 to 2017 (22 of 205 patients [11%] vs 32 of 148 patients [22%]; P = .004). In multivariable analysis, the use of SLNB was associated with diagnosis year (2017 vs 2012; odds ratio [OR], 2.26; 95% CI, 1.26-4.20), clinical nodal status (cN3 vs 0; OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.22-0.67), and receipt of reconstructive surgery (OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.09-2.96).The findings of this cohort study suggest that there is frequent and increasing use of SLNB in patients with IBC that is not evidence-based or supported by current treatment guidelines.

Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) mutations are common among individuals without known hematologic disease. CH mutations have been associated with numerous adverse clinical outcomes across many different studies. We systematically reviewed the available literature for clinical outcomes associated with CH mutations in patients without hematologic disease. We searched PubMed, EMBASE, and Scopus for eligible studies. Three investigators independently extracted the data, and each study was verified by a second author. Risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. We identified 32 studies with 56 cohorts that examine the association between CH mutations and clinical outcomes. We conducted meta-analyses comparing outcomes among individuals with and without detectable CH mutations. We conducted meta-analyses for cardiovascular diseases (nine studies; HR=1.61, 95% CI=1.26-2.07, p= .0002), hematologic malignancies (seven studies; HR=5.59, 95% CI=3.31-9.45, p&nbsp

Key Points Question Are second-generation antiandrogens (AAs) associated with increased risk of depression among older men diagnosed with prostate cancer? Findings In this cohort study of 30 069 men aged 66 years and older, there was a statistically significant 2-fold increase in depression among patients treated with second-generation AA compared with traditional forms of hormone therapy (HT) and no HT. Meaning These findings suggest that use of second-generation AAs is associated with a clinically significant increased risk of depression when compared with traditional HT alone or no HT., This cohort study tests the a priori hypothesis that second-generation AAs are associated with an increased risk of depression, including compared with traditional forms of HT., Importance Previous studies have shown a consistent association between hormone therapy (HT), such as androgen deprivation therapy, to treat prostate cancer and depression risk. However, the association between second-generation antiandrogens (AAs) and depression is unknown. Objective To test the a priori hypothesis that second-generation AAs are associated with an increased risk of depression, including compared with traditional forms of HT. Design, Setting, and Participants This retrospective cohort study analyzed patients aged 66 years and older who were diagnosed with prostate cancer without a second cancer in 12 months from January 2011 to December 2015. Patients with continuous Medicare Parts A, B, and D coverage were included. Individuals who received any form of HT prior to prostate cancer diagnosis and those previously diagnosed with depression were excluded. Data were collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results–Medicare and Texas Cancer Registry–Medicare linked databases. Data were analyzed from February to May 2021. Exposures The following treatment groups were compared: (1) no HT group, (2) traditional HT group (HT without second-generation AA exposure), and (3) second-generation AA group. Main Outcomes and Measures Risk of depression in the second-generation AA group compared with the no HT and traditional HT groups, determined prior to data collection, stratified by diagnosis stage. Results Of 210 804 patients diagnosed with prostate cancer during the study window, 30 069 men (11 484 [38%] aged 66-70 years; 22 594 [75%] White) who met inclusion criteria were identified. Overall, 17 710 (59%) received no HT, 11 311 (38%) received traditional HT only, and 1048 (3%) received a second-generation AA. Those receiving a second-generation AA were more likely to be older (aged ≥81 years: second-generation AA group, 246 [24%]; traditional HT group, 1997 [18%]; no HT group, 1173 [7%]) and present with advanced disease (eg, distant disease: second-generation AA group, 562 [24%]; traditional HT group, 876 [8%]; no HT group, 129 [0.7%]). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis showed that the second-generation AA group had an increased risk of depression compared with the no HT group (hazard ratio [HR], 2.15; 95% CI, 1.79-2.59; P

Despite the advancements of modern radiotherapy, radiation-induced cardiovascular disease (RICVD) remains a common cause of morbidity and mortality among cancer survivors.Proposed pathogenetic mechanisms of RICVD include endothelial cell damage with accelerated atherosclerosis, pro-thrombotic alterations in the coagulation pathway as well as inflammation and fibrosis of the myocardial, pericardial, valvular, and conduction tissues. Prevention of RICVD can be achieved by minimizing the exposure of the cardiovascular system to radiation, by treatment of underlying cardiovascular risk factors and cardiovascular disease, and possibly by prophylactic pharmacotherapy post exposure. Herein we summarize current knowledge on the mechanisms underlying the pathogenesis of RICVD and propose prevention and treatment strategies.

Purpose: This study evaluates the toxicity and tumor response with concurrent nab-paclitaxel chemoradiotherapy (CRT) compared with standard (5-fluorouracil or gemcitabine) CRT. Materials and Methods: Fifty patients with borderline resectable or unresectable pancreatic adenocarcinoma from 2014 to 2017 were divided into 2 groups: concurrent nab-paclitaxel (100 to 125 mg/m2 weekly) CRT (median: 2.1 Gy fraction size and 52.5 Gy total) or standard CRT (median: 1.8 Gy fraction size, 54.5 Gy total). The primary endpoint was toxicity, and secondary endpoints were local failure and conversion to resectability. Comparisons were made using rank-sum or Fisher exact test and multivariable competing risk regression for the cumulative incidence of local failure. Results: There were 28 patients in the nab-paclitaxel CRT group and 22 in the standard CRT group; 88% had the unresectable disease. The median follow-up was 18 months. The median duration of chemotherapy before concurrent CRT was 1.9 and 2.3 months in the nab-paclitaxel and standard CRT groups (P=0.337), and radiotherapy dose was 52.5 Gy (range, 52.5 to 59.4 Gy) and 54.5 Gy (range, 45.0 to 59.4 Gy), respectively. There were no statistically significant grade ≥2 toxicities. The nab-paclitaxel CRT group experienced a nonstatistically significant lower incidence of local failure (hazard ratio=0.91, 95% confidence interval: 0.27-3.03, P=0.536). More patients in the nab-paclitaxel CRT group proceeded to surgery (9/28 compared with 3/22 in the standard CRT, P=0.186); of which 6 (25%) in the nab-paclitaxel CRT and 2 (10%) in the standard CRT groups were initially unresectable. Conclusions: Nab-paclitaxel CRT had similar toxicity compared with standard CRT in the treatment of borderline resectable or unresectable pancreatic cancer. Its use was associated with an arithmetically lower cumulative incidence of local failure and an arithmetically higher conversion to resectability, both of which were not statistically significant.

Electronic health records (EHR) have been implemented successfully in a majority of United States healthcare systems in some form. There has been a rise in secondary uses of EHR, especially for research. EHR data is large, heterogenous, incomplete, noisy, and primarily created for purposes other than research. This presents many challenges, many of which are beginning to be overcome with the application of computer science artificial intelligence techniques, such as natural language processing and machine learning. EHR are gradually being redesigned to facilitate future research, though we are still far from a "complete EHR."

The aim of this study is to summarize recently published literature examining androgens and depression.The impact of androgen levels, androgen replacement therapy and pharmacologic androgen deprivation on depression and depressive symptoms remain active areas of investigation. Recent publications support the finding that testosterone replacement therapy in men with low testosterone may improve depression, and that androgen deprivation therapy in men with prostate cancer may contribute to depression.We review the recent literature on androgens and depression and highlight key developments.

Background: To prevent ovarian cancer in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers, risk reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) is recommended around age 40. In women with no prior history of cancer, there are conflicting data regarding the impact of RRSO on breast cancer risk. Our aim was to explore the association between premenopausal RRSO and BC risk by using a methodology that maximally reduced potential biases. Methods: Prospective multicenter cohort study of BRCA1/2 carriers who underwent genetic testing under age 51, had no history of bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy, mastectomy or cancer prior to genetic testing and during the first six months of surveillance (to avoid cancer-induced testing bias and prevalent cancer bias). Observation period started six months after genetic testing (to avoid event-free time bias), and ended at BC or other cancer diagnosis except for non-melanoma skin cancer and cervical cancer in situ, risk reducing mastectomy (RRM), last follow-up or death. We calculated person-years of observation (PYO) starting at age 30 and RRSO was only accounted for when performed before age 51 (considered premenopausal). Cox proportional hazards models with RRSO as a time-dependent covariate (to avoid immortal person time bias) were used to calculate the BC risk reduction. Sensitivity analysis, censoring at age 51, was performed to calculate the impact of RRSO on the premenopausal BC. Results: We included 853 (444 BRCA1 and 409 BRCA2) women. Median age was 36.2 (30-50.9) years, 337 (39.5%) women underwent RRSO prior to age 51 with a median age at RRSO of 42.8 (30.5-50.9) and 240 (28.1%) women performed RRM at a median age of 40.7 (30-61.7) years. After a mean follow-up period of 4.3 years, 96 women (11.3%) were diagnosed with BC (54 BRCA1 and 42 BRCA2). Overall, women who underwent RRSO had a significant reduction in BC risk with hazard ratio (HR) of 0.57 (95% CI= 0.32 to 1; p=0.05); in BRCA1 carriers we found HR of 0.45 (95% CI= 0.22 to 0.92; p=0.03), while BRCA2 carriers had HR of 0.77 (95% CI= 0.35 to 1.67; p=0.51). When follow-up was censored at age 51, the HR estimates remained similar with overall HR of 0.54 (95% CI= 0.29 to 1; p=0.05); BRCA1 carriers had HR of 0.35 (95% CI= 0.15 to 0.82; p=0.02), while BRCA2 carriers had HR of 0.88 (95% CI= 0.39 to 1.96; p=0.75). Conclusions: This robust bias-reducing analysis in a large prospective cohort supports a role of premenopausal RRSO for BC risk reduction in BRCA1 carriers. A longer follow-up may be needed to estimate the potential benefit of the intervention in BRCA2 carriers. Citation Format: Stjepanovic N, Villacampa G, Nead K, Torres S, Gomez L, Nathanson KL, Teule A, Brunet J, Ramon y Cajal T, Llort G, Dienstmann R, Rue M, Domchek S, Balmana J. Impact of premenopausal RRSO on breast cancer risk in BRCA1/2 mutation carriers: Maximizing bias-reduction [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the 2018 San Antonio Breast Cancer Symposium; 2018 Dec 4-8; San Antonio, TX. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2019;79(4 Suppl):Abstract nr P5-09-04.

Background Previous studies have examined the association of statin therapy and breast cancer outcomes with mixed results. The objective of this study was to investigate the clinical effects of incident statin use among individuals with triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC). Methods Data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare and Texas Cancer Registry-Medicare databases were used, and women aged ≥66 years who had stage I, II, and III breast cancer were identified. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to examine the association of new statin use in the 12 months after a breast cancer diagnosis with overall survival (OS) and breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS). Results When examining incident statin use, defined as the initiation of statin therapy in the 12 months after breast cancer diagnosis, a significant association was observed between statin use and improved BCSS (standardized hazard ratio, 0.42; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.20-0.88; P = .022) and OS (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.50-0.99; P = .046) among patients with TNBC (n = 1534). No association was observed with BCSS (standardized hazard ratio, 0.99; 95% CI, 0.71-1.39; P = .97) or OS (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.92-1.17; P = .55) among those without TNBC (n = 15,979). The results were consistent when examining statin exposure as a time-varying variable. Conclusions Among women with I, II, and III TNBC, initiation of statin therapy in the 12 months after breast cancer diagnosis was associated with an OS and BCSS benefit. Statins may have a role in select patients with breast cancer, and further investigation is warranted.

Patients with breast cancer and ipsilateral supraclavicular (SCV) node involvement at the time of diagnosis (TNM cN3c) have historically had poor outcomes. Radiation therapy (RT) has an important role because SCV nodes are not routinely surgically dissected. However, optimal locoregional management, contemporary outcomes, and prognostic factors are not well defined.We reviewed the data of patients with cN3c breast cancer treated at our institution between 2014 and 2019 with curative intent, including neoadjuvant chemotherapy, surgery, and adjuvant RT. All patients received comprehensive regional RT, including to the SCV nodes. Institutional guidelines recommend a 10-Gy or 16-Gy boost to resolved and unresolved N3 nodes, respectively. Overall survival (OS), recurrence-free survival (RFS), locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRRFS), and supraclavicular recurrence-free survival (SCRFS) were analyzed.Data from 173 consecutive patients were analyzed with a median follow-up time of 2.8 years. The median age was 54 years, 76 patients (44%) were estrogen receptor positive/human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 negative, 100 patients (58%) had T3/4 disease, and 10 patients (6%) underwent a neck dissection. In addition, 156 patients (90%) received a cumulative SCV dose of ≥60 Gy. The 5-year OS, SCRFS, LRRFS, and RFS rates were 73%, 95%, 86%, and 50%, respectively. The 5-year OS rate for a cumulative SCV dose of ≥60 Gy versus60 Gy was 75% versus 39% (P = .04). In the multivariable analysis, a cumulative SCV dose of ≥60 Gy, extranodal extension, receptor status, and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status were associated with OS. The 5-year SCRFS rates with and without neck dissection were 100% versus 95% (P = .57). Among patients with a postchemotherapy SCV node size of ≥1 cm without neck dissection, the 5-year SCRFS rate was 83%.In one of the largest series of patients with cN3c breast cancer, multimodality therapy using adjuvant RT with a SCV boost resulted in a 5-year LRRFS rate of 86%. There is a limited role for neck dissection as the 5-year SCRFS rate was 95% overall and 83% for residual SCV disease ≥1 cm after chemotherapy with RT alone. A cumulative SCV dose of ≥60 Gy was associated with improved OS, but not SCRFS, LRRFS, or RFS. A SCV boost should be considered in these patients as treatment was well-tolerated. Despite advances in systemic therapy, nearly half of patients developed distant metastases, highlighting the need for close observation after treatment.

Mikayla R Thompson,1 Jiangong Niu,2 Xiudong Lei,2 Malgorzata Nowakowska,3 Mackenzie R Wehner,2,4 Sharon H Giordano,2,5 Kevin T Nead6,7 1Department of Epidemiology and Environmental Health, University at Buffalo School of Public Health and Health Professions, Buffalo, NY, USA; 2Department of Health Services Research, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA; 3Department of Medicine, Baylor College of Medicine, Houston, TX, USA; 4Department of Dermatology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA; 5Department of Breast Medical Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA; 6Department of Epidemiology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA; 7Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USACorrespondence: Kevin T Nead Tel +1 713 563-5155Email ktnead@mdanderson.orgPurpose: Prior studies have reported differing results regarding the association between endocrine therapy (ET) in the treatment of breast cancer and dementia risk. However, existing findings may be limited by common sources of bias and confounding. Here we investigate the association of ET utilized in the definitive setting to treat non-metastatic breast cancer with dementia risk accounting for multiple potential sources of bias and confounding.Patients and Methods: We conducted a retrospective study in SEER-Medicare of women aged ≥ 66 years with non-metastatic breast cancer. We examined the risk of all-cause dementia among ET users versus non-ET users using multivariable regression models, accounting for the competing risk of death, and using a start of the follow-up period as 12-months following breast cancer diagnosis for both groups to avoid immortal time bias.Results: Among 25,777 individuals there were 2,869 incident dementia cases. We found a statistically significantly decreased risk of any dementia among ET users in unadjusted and adjusted models that completely attenuated when accounting for the competing risk of death (hazard ratio, 0.98; 95% confidence interval, 0.90– 1.07).Conclusion: When accounting for common sources of bias and confounding we did not find evidence to support an association between ET in the definitive treatment of non-metastatic breast cancer and dementia risk. These results suggest that ET may not be associated with dementia risk.Keywords: breast cancer, endocrine therapy, dementia, aromatase inhibitors, selective estrogen receptor modulators

Key Points Question How will the landscape of cancer incidences and deaths change in the next 2 decades? Findings In this cross-sectional study, the results estimate that leading cancer incidences and deaths in the US will be notably different in the year 2040 compared with current rankings. Estimates included increases in melanoma incidence, pancreatic cancer deaths, and liver cancer deaths, and decreases in prostate cancer incidence and breast cancer deaths. Meaning These estimates will be important to guide research, health care, and health policy efforts and emphasize the importance of cancer screening, early detection, and prevention., This cross-sectional study examines recent data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program and US Census to estimate projections for US cancer incidence and deaths to 2040., Importance Coping with the current and future burden of cancer requires an in-depth understanding of trends in cancer incidences and deaths. Estimated projections of cancer incidences and deaths will be important to guide future research funding allocations, health care planning, and health policy efforts. Objective To estimate cancer incidences and deaths in the United States to the year 2040. Design and Setting This cross-sectional study’s estimated projection analysis used population growth projections and current population-based cancer incidence and death rates to calculate the changes in incidences and deaths to the year 2040. Cancer-specific incidences and deaths in the US were estimated for the most common cancer types. Demographic cancer-specific delay-adjusted incidence rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program were combined with US Census Bureau population growth projections (2016) and average annual percentage changes in incidence and death rates. Statistical analyses were performed from July 2020 to February 2021. Main Outcomes and Measures Total cancer incidences and deaths to the year 2040. Results This study estimated that the most common cancers in 2040 will be breast (364 000 cases) with melanoma (219 000 cases) becoming the second most common cancer; lung, third (208 000 cases); colorectal remaining fourth (147 000 cases); and prostate cancer dropping to the fourteenth most common cancer (66 000 cases). Lung cancer (63 000 deaths) was estimated to continue as the leading cause of cancer-related death in 2040, with pancreatic cancer (46 000 deaths) and liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer (41 000 deaths) surpassing colorectal cancer (34 000 deaths) to become the second and third most common causes of cancer-related death, respectively. Breast cancer (30 000 deaths) was estimated to decrease to the fifth most common cause of cancer death. Conclusions and Relevance These findings suggest that there will be marked changes in the landscape of cancer incidence and deaths by 2040.

Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) are the most common tumor in young white men and have a high heritability. In this study, the international Testicular Cancer Consortium assemble 10,156 and 179,683 men with and without TGCT, respectively, for a genome-wide association study. This meta-analysis identifies 22 TGCT susceptibility loci, bringing the total to 78, which account for 44% of disease heritability. Men with a polygenic risk score (PRS) in the 95th percentile have a 6.8-fold increased risk of TGCT compared to men with median scores. Among men with independent TGCT risk factors such as cryptorchidism, the PRS may guide screening decisions with the goal of reducing treatment-related complications causing long-term morbidity in survivors. These findings emphasize the interconnected nature of two known pathways that promote TGCT susceptibility: male germ cell development within its somatic niche and regulation of chromosomal division and structure, and implicate an additional biological pathway, mRNA translation., Testicular germ cell tumors are highly heritable, and the authors present the largest genome association study, identifying 22 novel loci, which account for a third of those identified to date. Implicated pathways include male germ cell development and differentiation, and chromosomal segregation.

Context Novel androgen receptor axis-targeting drugs (ARATs) have been shown to improve outcomes in men with prostate cancer. Central nervous system androgen blockade may be harmful for older adults who may be at increased risk of adverse cognitive and psychologic effects. Objective To systematically evaluate the effect of ARATs on cognition and depression in men with metastatic prostate cancer. Evidence acquisition We searched PubMed and EMBASE for articles published in English between September 2012 and September 2019 reporting cognition and depression outcomes in men receiving ARATs for metastatic prostate cancer using validated psychometric tools. The level of evidence and risk of bias were assessed using the GRADE approach for randomized clinical trials and observational studies. Results 15 reports studying 8954 men with metastatic castration-sensitive and -resistant, or non-metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer were identified. Data were available for abiraterone, enzalutamide and apalutamide but not darolutamide. The mean (and 95% confidence interval) and median (and min-max) of the absolute scores and changes from baseline were included, when available. There was heterogeneity in the psychometric tools used which obviated statistical pooling of results. Very limited data assessing cognition suggested that abiraterone was associated with improved cognitive functioning or perhaps less cognitive harm versus enzalutamide. Fourteen reports assessed emotional wellbeing. ARATs reduced depressive symptoms when compared to prednisone alone or placebo but not compared to bicalutamide. Abiraterone may improve short-term emotional functioning relative to enzalutamide. The quality of evidence was low when examining ARAT effect on cognitive function and moderate when examining ARAT effect on depression. Conclusions Depression was assessed more frequently than cognition in men receiving ARATs. Self-reported depression measures favored abiraterone over enzalutamide and both abiraterone and enzalutamide over placebo. Data evaluating apalutamide and darolutamide are lacking. Further studies of ARATs using validated clinician-based psycho-cognition tools along with self-reported measures in men with metastatic prostate cancer are needed.

Purpose Soft tissue sarcomas (STS) are rare malignancies that require complex multidisciplinary management. Therefore, facilities with high sarcoma case volume may demonstrate superior outcomes. We hypothesized that STS treatment at high-volume (HV) facilities would be associated with improved overall survival (OS). Methods and Materials Patients aged ≥18 years with nonmetastatic STS treated with surgery and radiation therapy at a single facility from 2004 through 2013 were identified from the National Cancer Database. Facilities were dichotomized into HV and low-volume (LV) cohorts based on total case volume over the study period. OS was assessed using multivariable Cox regression with propensity score-matching. Patterns of care were assessed using multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results Of 9025 total patients, 1578 (17%) and 7447 (83%) were treated at HV and LV facilities, respectively. On multivariable analysis, high educational attainment, larger tumor size, higher grade, and negative surgical margins were statistically significantly associated with treatment at HV facilities; conversely, black race and non-metropolitan residence were negative predictors of treatment at HV facilities. On propensity score–matched multivariable analysis, treatment at HV facilities versus LV facilities was associated with improved OS (hazard ratio, 0.87, 95% confidence interval, 0.80-0.95; P = .001). Older age, lack of insurance, greater comorbidity, larger tumor size, higher tumor grade, and positive surgical margins were associated with statistically significantly worse OS. Conclusions In this observational cohort study using the National Cancer Database, receipt of surgery and radiation therapy at HV facilities was associated with improved OS in patients with STS. Potential sociodemographic disparities limit access to care at HV facilities for certain populations. Our findings highlight the importance of receipt of care at HV facilities for patients with STS and warrant further study into improving access to care at HV facilities.

Purpose/Objective(s) Breast cancer patients with clinical N3c (cN3c) disease at diagnosis have poor outcomes relative to other breast cancer patients. Radiotherapy (RT) has an important role in the management of these patients as the supraclavicular (SCV) nodes are not routinely surgically dissected. However, outcomes and prognostic factors in the era of modern neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NAC) are not well-described. Materials/Methods We reviewed breast cancer patients with non-metastatic cN3c disease treated at our institution from 2014-2019 with curative intent NAC, surgery, and adjuvant RT. All patients received nodal RT including the SCV, infraclavicular, and internal mammary nodes. Institutional guidelines recommend a 10 Gy boost to clinically resolved N3 nodal basins and 16 Gy to unresolved N3 nodes. Variables including initial and boost dose, pathologic response, and type of nodal dissection were collected. Local (LC) and regional control (RC), freedom from distant metastases (FFDM), and overall survival (OS) were analyzed with the Kaplan Meier method. A saturated multivariable Cox proportional hazards model of OS with backward elimination identified clinical variables associated with OS at P Results A total of 176 consecutive patients were analyzed. The median follow-up time was 2.83 years. The median age was 54 years, 76 (43%) were ER+/HER2-, 20 (11%) ER+/HER2+, 26 (15%) ER-/HER2+, and 54 (31%) ER-/HER2-. 102 (57%) had T3/4 disease, 41 (23%) underwent lumpectomy, 142 (81%) had pathologic confirmation of N3c, and 10 (6%) had a neck dissection. The median initial radiation dose was 50 Gy (range, 44-56.25), SCV boost 10 Gy (range, 6-16), and 156 (89%) received cumulative SCV dose ≥60 Gy. The 3-year OS, FFDM, RC, and LC were 79%, 64%, 93%, and 96%, respectively. For cumulative SCV dose of ≥60 Gy vs. Conclusion In a large, modern cohort of non-metastatic cN3c breast cancer patients treated with multimodality therapy, cumulative SCV dose ≥60 Gy was found to be associated with improved OS. Although optimal radiation dosing cannot be established from this data, a SCV radiation boost should be considered in cN3c patients treated with curative intent respecting normal tissue constraints.

This cross-sectional study evaluated American Board of Medical Specialties member boards’ lactation-specific board examination accommodation policies and corroborated the outcomes of these policies by comparing the self-reported experiences of lactating or potentially lactating female physicians with board examinations.

Objectives To examine whether any androgen deprivation therapy use or longer duration is associated with an increased risk of anxiety in patients with prostate cancer. Methods We identified 78 552 men aged ≥66 years with stage I–III prostate cancer using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-Medicare linked database from 1992 to 2006, excluding patients with psychiatric diagnoses within the year prior or 6 months after prostate cancer diagnosis. Multivariable Cox regression was used to examine the association between pharmacological androgen deprivation therapy and diagnosis of anxiety. Results The 43.1% (33 882) of patients who received androgen deprivation therapy experienced a higher 3-year cumulative incidence of anxiety compared with men who did not (4.1% vs 3.5%, P < 0.001). Any androgen deprivation therapy use was associated with a nearly significant increased risk of anxiety (adjusted hazard ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 1.00–1.17, P = 0.054). There was a significant trend between a longer duration of therapy and increased risk of anxiety (P-trend = 0.012), with a 16% higher risk for ≥12 months (adjusted hazard ratio 1.16, 95% confidence interval 1.04–1.29, P = 0.010). Conclusions Androgen deprivation therapy was associated with an elevated risk of anxiety in this cohort of elderly men with localized prostate cancer, with the risk higher with a longer duration of treatment. Anxiety should be considered among the possible psychiatric effects of androgen deprivation therapy and discussed before initiating treatment, particularly if a long course is anticipated.

The preventive role of cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and physical activity (PA) in cancer mortality is not well-established. This study sought to evaluate the association between CRF, PA and cancer mortality in men. Maximal exercise testing was performed at the VA Palo Alto Health Care System in 5876 male veterans (60.5±11years) free from malignancy at baseline who were followed for mean of 9.9 (range 0.11 to 26.8) years. PA status was assessed in a sub-group of 4034 participants. Relative risks and population attributable risks (PAR%) for cancer-related mortality were determined. During the follow-up, 447 men (7.6%) died from cancer. Forty-nine percent of the sample was considered physically active (defined as meeting the minimal PA guidelines); this group exhibited a 20% reduction in cancer mortality risk [95% confidence interval (0.67-0.97), p=0.02]. CRF was inversely associated with cancer death. For each 1 MET increase in CRF there was a 5% reduction in risk for cancer mortality (p=0.01). Compared to the least fit group (

Androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) to treat prostate cancer may be associated with an increased risk of dementia, but existing studies have shown conflicting results. Here we synthesize the literature on the association of ADT for the treatment of prostate cancer with dementia risk. We conducted a systematic review of articles reporting the outcome of dementia among individuals with prostate cancer in those exposed to ADT versus a lesser-exposed comparison group (for example, ADT versus no-ADT; continuous versus intermittent ADT) using PubMed (1966–present), Web of Science (1945–present), Embase (1966–present) and PsycINFO (1806–present). The search was undertaken on 4 December 2016 by two authors. We meta-analyzed studies reporting an effect estimate and controlling for confounding. Random- or fixed-effects meta-analytic models were used in the presence or absence of heterogeneity per the I2 statistic, respectively. Small study effects were evaluated using Egger and Begg’s tests. Nine studies were included in the systematic review. Seven studies reported an adjusted effect estimate for dementia risk. A random-effects meta-analysis of studies reporting any dementia outcome, which included 50 541 individuals, showed an increased risk of dementia among ADT users (hazard ratio (HR), 1.47; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.08–2.00; P=0.02). We separately meta-analyzed studies reporting all-cause dementia (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.05–2.02; P

© 2020. Elsevier Background. Whether risk-reducing salpingo-oophorectomy (RRSO) in BRCA1/2 carriers reduces the breast cancer (BC) risk is conflicting, potentially due to methodological issues of prior analysis. We analysed the association between premenopausal RRSO and BC risk in BRCA1/2 carriers after adjusting for potential biases. Methods. We analysed data from 444 BRCA1 and 409 BRCA2 carriers under age 51 with no cancer prior to genetic testing or during first 6 months of surveillance (to avoid cancer-induced testing bias and prevalent-cancer bias). Observation started 6 months after genetic testing (to avoid event-free time bias), until BC diagnosis, risk-reducing mastectomy (RRM) or death. A multistate model with four states (non-RRSO, RRSO, RRM and BC) and five transitions was fitted to characterise outcomes and to calculate the BC risk reduction after premenopausal RRSO (before age 51). A systematic review was performed to assess the association between premenopausal RRSO and BC. Results. During a mean follow-up of 4.3 years, 96 women (11.3%) developed BC (54 BRCA1, 42 BRCA2). The risk of BC after premenopausal RRSO decreased significantly in BRCA1 carriers (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.45 [95% confidence interval (CI):0.22–0.92]), but was not conclusive in BRCA2 carriers (HR = 0.77 [95%CI:0.35–1.67]). The systematic review suggested that premenopausal RRSO is associated with a decrease of BC risk in both BRCA1 and BRCA2 carriers. Conclusions. Premenopausal RRSO was associated with BC risk reduction in BRCA1 carriers, which can help guide cancer risk-reducing strategies in this population. Longer follow-up and larger sample size may be needed to estimate the potential benefit in BRCA2 carriers. Peer Reviewed Article signat per 14 autors/es: Neda Stjepanovic, Guillermo Villacampa, Kevin T. Nead, Sara Torres-Esquius, Guadalupe G. Melis, Katherine L. Nathanson, Alexandre Teule, Joan Brunet, Teresa R. y Cajal, Gemma Llort, Rodrigo Dienstmann, Montserrat Rue, Susan M. Domchek, Judith Balmaña

Management of melanoma has been revolutionized by the use of immune checkpoint inhibitors. Immune system changes associated with aging may affect the efficacy of immune-based therapies. Using the National Cancer Database, we evaluated the impact of age on the receipt and efficacy of modern immunotherapies in patients with metastatic melanoma. We identified 11,944 patients from 2011–2015, of whom 25% received immunotherapy. Older (≥60 years), compared with younger, patients were less likely to receive immunotherapy (odds ratio, 0.69; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.61–0.78; p < .001). Immunotherapy was associated with a survival benefit in both younger and older patients (

523 Background: Statins have been shown to target pathways related to breast cancer carcinogenesis, specifically in more aggressive breast cancer subtypes such as triple negative breast cancer (TNBC). Given the limited toxicity profile, low cost, and ease of use of statins, an association between statin therapy and improved breast cancer outcomes, particularly in aggressive breast cancers with more limited treatment options, could have important public health implications. Here we examine the association of statin therapy with breast cancer outcomes in women with stage I-III breast cancer, specifically TNBC. Methods: We utilized Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare and Texas Cancer Registry (TCR)-Medicare data. We included women age 66 years or older with histologically confirmed stage I-III breast cancer diagnosed from 2008-2015. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models to examine the association of statin use with overall survival (OS) and breast cancer specific survival (BCSS) adjusting for age, race, education, state buy-in, residence area, stage, subtype, endocrine therapy, radiation, chemotherapy, surgery, baseline statin use, comorbidity, and baseline hypertension. For BCSS, we accounted for the competing risk of death using the Fine and Grey method. We required all individuals to survive until 12 months post-diagnosis, which we defined as the start of the follow-up period, to account for immortal time bias. Results: We identified 45,063 patients with stage I-III breast cancer meeting inclusion criteria, out of which 22,518 (50.0%) received a statin within one year following diagnosis (statin-users). The 5-year cumulative estimates of breast cancer specific deaths were 5.9% and 6.9% for statin-users and non-users (P

Patients with peripheral T cell lymphomas (PTCL) generally have a poor prognosis when treated with conventional chemotherapy. Consolidation with autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) has been reported to improve progression-free survival. However, these studies have not compared consolidative ASCT with active observation in patients with PTCL achieving first complete remission (CR1) following induction chemotherapy. We conducted a retrospective analysis of PTCL patients treated at the University of Pennsylvania between 1/1/2007 and 12/31/2014. Patients with cutaneous T cell lymphoma, concurrent B cell lymphomas, and anaplastic lymphoma kinase-positive anaplastic large cell lymphoma (ALK-positive ALCL) were excluded from the study. We compared progression-free survival for patients who underwent ASCT in CR1 following CHOP-like induction regimens and patients who underwent active observation during CR1. 48 patients met all inclusion and exclusion criteria and underwent either active observation (28 patients) or consolidative ASCT (20 patients) in CR1. The 1-year cumulative incidence of relapse in the observation and ASCT groups was 50% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 30-67%) and 46% (95% CI: 23-67%), respectively (P = 0.55). Median progression-free survival in the observation and ASCT groups was 15.8 and 12.8 months, respectively (log rank, P = 0.79). Estimated 3-year progression-free survival in the observation and ASCT groups was 37 and 41%, respectively. In conclusion, for PTCL patients achieving CR1 following CHOP-like induction chemotherapy, ASCT does not appear to improve progression-free survival compared to active observation. This finding should be confirmed in a larger, prospective study. Am. J. Hematol. 91:672-676, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Purpose To test the association of androgen deprivation therapy (ADT) in the treatment of prostate cancer with subsequent Alzheimer’s disease risk. Methods We used a previously validated and implemented text-processing pipeline to analyze electronic medical record data in a retrospective cohort of patients at Stanford University and Mt. Sinai hospitals. Specifically, we extracted International Classification of Diseases-9th revision diagnosis and Current Procedural Terminology codes, medication lists, and positive-present mentions of drug and disease concepts from all clinical notes. We then tested the effect of ADT on risk of Alzheimer’s disease using 1:5 propensity score–matched and traditional multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models. The duration of ADT use was also tested for association with Alzheimer’s disease risk. Results There were 16,888 individuals with prostate cancer meeting all inclusion and exclusion criteria, with 2,397 (14.2%) receiving ADT during a median follow-up period of 2.7 years (interquartile range, 1.0-5.4 years). Propensity score–matched analysis (hazard ratio, 1.88; 95% CI, 1.10 to 3.20; P = .021) and traditional multivariable-adjusted Cox regression analysis (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.05 to 2.64; P = .031) both supported a statistically significant association between ADT use and Alzheimer’s disease risk. We also observed a statistically significant increased risk of Alzheimer’s disease with increasing duration of ADT (P = .016). Conclusion Our results support an association between the use of ADT in the treatment of prostate cancer and an increased risk of Alzheimer’s disease in a general population cohort. This study demonstrates the utility of novel methods to analyze electronic medical record data to generate practice-based evidence.

Rationale: Genetic variation at the chromosome 9p21 cardiovascular risk locus has been associated with peripheral artery disease, but its mechanism remains unknown. Objective: To determine whether this association is secondary to an increase in atherosclerosis, or it is the result of a separate angiogenesis-related mechanism. Methods and Results: Quantitative evaluation of human vascular samples revealed that carriers of the 9p21 risk allele possess a significantly higher burden of immature intraplaque microvessels than carriers of the ancestral allele, irrespective of lesion size or patient comorbidity. To determine whether aberrant angiogenesis also occurs under nonatherosclerotic conditions, we performed femoral artery ligation surgery in mice lacking the 9p21 candidate gene, Cdkn2b . These animals developed advanced hindlimb ischemia and digital autoamputation, secondary to a defect in the capacity of the Cdkn2b -deficient smooth muscle cell to support the developing neovessel. Microarray studies identified impaired transforming growth factor β ( TGF β) signaling in cultured cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor 2B ( CDKN2B )–deficient cells, as well as TGF β 1 upregulation in the vasculature of 9p21 risk allele carriers. Molecular signaling studies indicated that loss of CDKN2B impairs the expression of the inhibitory factor, SMAD-7 , which promotes downstream TGF β activation. Ultimately, this manifests in the upregulation of a poorly studied effector molecule, TGF β 1-induced-1 , which is a TGF β-rheostat known to have antagonistic effects on the endothelial cell and smooth muscle cell. Dual knockdown studies confirmed the reversibility of the proposed mechanism, in vitro. Conclusions: These results suggest that loss of CDKN2B may not only promote cardiovascular disease through the development of atherosclerosis but may also impair TGF β signaling and hypoxic neovessel maturation.

Background Testicular germ cell tumor (TGCT) incidence has increased in recent decades along with the use and dose of diagnostic radiation. Here we examine the association between reported exposure to diagnostic radiation and TGCT risk. Methods We conducted a case-control study of men with and without TGCT recruited from hospital- and population-based settings. Participants reported on exposures to 1) x-ray or CT below the waist and 2) lower GI series or barium enema, which consists of a series of x-rays of the colon. We also derived a combined measure of exposure. We used logistic regression to determine the risk of developing TGCT according to categories of exposures (0, 1–2, or ≥3 exposures) and age at first exposure, adjusting for age, year of birth, race, county, body mass index at diagnosis, family history of TGCT, and personal history of cryptorchidism. Results There were 315 men with TGCT and 931 men without TGCT in our study. Compared to no exposures, risk of TGCT was significantly elevated among those reporting at least three exposures to x-ray or CT (OR≥3 exposures, 1.78; 95% CI, 1.15–2.76; p = 0.010), lower GI series or barium enema (OR≥3 exposures, 4.58; 95% CI, 2.39–8.76; p≥3 exposures, 1.59; 95% CI, 1.05–2.42; p = 0.029). The risk of TGCT was elevated for those exposed to diagnostic radiation at age 0–10 years, compared to those first exposed at age 18 years or later, although this association did not reach statistical significance (OR, 2.00; 95% CI, 0.91–4.42; p = 0.086). Conclusions Exposure to diagnostic radiation below the waist may increase TGCT risk. If these results are validated, efforts to reduce diagnostic radiation doses to the testes should be prioritized.

This cross-sectional study assesses whether there were differences in the proportions of male and female corresponding authors in bioRxiv and medRxiv associated with the COVID-19 pandemic.

1566 Background: Coping with the current and future burden of cancer requires an in-depth understanding of cancer incidence and death trends. As of 2020, breast, lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer are the most incident cancers, while lung, colorectal, pancreas, and breast cancer result in the most deaths. Here we integrate observed cancer statistics and trends with observed and estimated US demographic data to project cancer incidences and deaths to the year 2040. Methods: Demographic cancer-specific delay-adjusted incidence and death rates from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (2014-2016) were combined with US Census Bureau population growth projections (2016) and average annual percentage changes in incidence (2011-2015) and death (2012-2016) rates to project cancer incidences and deaths through the year 2040. We examined the 10 most incident and deadly cancers as of 2020. We utilized Joinpoint analysis to examine changes in incidence and death rates over time relative to changes in screening guidelines. Results: We predict the most incident cancers in 2040 in the US will be breast (322,000 diagnoses in 2040) and lung (182,000 diagnoses in 2040) cancer. Continuing decades long observed incident rate trends we predict that melanoma (173,000 diagnoses in 2040) will become the 3rd most common cancer while prostate cancer (63,000 diagnoses in 2040) will become the 5th most common cancer after colorectal cancer (139,000 diagnoses in 2040). Lung cancer (61,000 deaths in 2040) is predicted to continue to be the leading cause of cancer related death, with pancreas (45,000 deaths in 2040) and liver & intrahepatic bile duct (38,000 deaths in 2040) cancer surpassing colorectal cancer (34,000 deaths in 2040) to become the second and third most common causes of cancer related death, respectively. Breast cancer deaths (29,000 in 2040) are predicted to continue to decrease and become the fifth most common cause of cancer death. Joinpoint analysis of incidence and death rates supports a significant past, present, and future impact of cancer screening programs on the number of cancer diagnoses and deaths, particularly for prostate, thyroid, melanoma incidences, and lung cancer deaths. Conclusions: We demonstrate marked changes in the predicted landscape of cancer incidence and deaths by 2040. Our analysis reveals an influence of cancer screening programs on the number of cancer diagnoses and deaths in future years. These projections are important to guide future research funding allocations, healthcare planning, and health policy efforts.